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2020 Trump Discussion
- Thread starter orch
- Start date
Trump delivered a State of the Union speech on last Monday. I thought that it was interesting how Trump touched down on the following issues:
Identity politics
He said that he was trying to create jobs for the American women and black community. He pointed out to the fact that the raw number of people who are working is highest than ever. This is impressive, since it does require a lot of work to create more jobs at scale.
Yes, I do agree that it should be *proportional*. That's the ideal. Trump appears to be trying to tackle this problem, by starting at the current raw numbers and trying to figure out the methods to increase that number.
Economy
I believe that he's doing a great job with increasing America's capital advantages, so that America can allocate more resources for American citizens. For example, he's trying to tackle the problem of the inflation of prescription drug's prices. It is a difficult problem, and he claimed to have made progress in this field in his speech. Also, he declared a war on the AIDS, and that he would eradicate AIDS within 10 years.
The Wall
This issue is so important to Trump that he's willing to shut down the government nilly willy. Trump claims to have spoken with the locals and agents who work at the borders and that the wall is necessary. I believe that wall should get built, so that non-American citizens are aware that the wall exists, and they would not attempt the journey to enter America. I think that Trump should work with the Mexican government, so that they would be able to host the refugees in their country.
Identity politics
He said that he was trying to create jobs for the American women and black community. He pointed out to the fact that the raw number of people who are working is highest than ever. This is impressive, since it does require a lot of work to create more jobs at scale.
Yes, I do agree that it should be *proportional*. That's the ideal. Trump appears to be trying to tackle this problem, by starting at the current raw numbers and trying to figure out the methods to increase that number.
Economy
I believe that he's doing a great job with increasing America's capital advantages, so that America can allocate more resources for American citizens. For example, he's trying to tackle the problem of the inflation of prescription drug's prices. It is a difficult problem, and he claimed to have made progress in this field in his speech. Also, he declared a war on the AIDS, and that he would eradicate AIDS within 10 years.
The Wall
This issue is so important to Trump that he's willing to shut down the government nilly willy. Trump claims to have spoken with the locals and agents who work at the borders and that the wall is necessary. I believe that wall should get built, so that non-American citizens are aware that the wall exists, and they would not attempt the journey to enter America. I think that Trump should work with the Mexican government, so that they would be able to host the refugees in their country.
Trump's economic numbers are just leftovers from Obama era policies, after all, everything we got from Trump was done by Obama before him, as I am reminded from every time anyone tries to blame anything on Trump. Actually, you and I talked just the other day about Trumpian neoliberalism coinciding with Obama and Clinton type neoliberalism in another thread. However, Trump's tax cuts for the wealthy and other mismanagements (fighting trade wars that destroy manufacturing jobs) will very likely lead to a big bust in the near future. I don't know why you posted this under the heading of 'identity politics' and then make no reference to anything but superficial economic trends. Equally odd is including 'declared war on the AIDS' (sic) (because rational ppl go to war against aids, and btw his war on aids has largely been an attack on programs meant to prevent HIV and help ppl with AIDS in favor of abstinence-only religious zealotry, his first step was to fire the entire acting aids commission) under a separate heading of 'economics'. Is there a big expected economic impact from the war on AIDS? Is he doing it for the profit to gdp now, because that could be interesting.
If anything, the uncertainty Trump has fueled through waging trade wars has actually slowed economic growth, markets abhor uncertainty and we've seen large sell offs following inflamed rhetoric from the president. Not to mention the economic loss imposed by the government shutdown.
I reckon the wall won't even stop immigrants from coming in at legal entry points like many already do and just overstaying their visa, so the wall is really about keeping out a certain type of immigrant. Trying to work with the mexican gov comes closer to true capitalist's solution: pay them in aid to take all the refugees from central america and keep them out of the U.S, they can clean up the mess from America's history of fomenting the destabilization of that region, but just know that it likely won't work to keep out immigrants that have mexican citizenship so is it really all about avoiding taking responsibility for our government's escapades in that region? If thats all it is though, I think I could find some friendly capitalists who need some willing wage slaves, libertarians shouldn't see anything wrong w that in my experience.
The fact is there will always be jobs that ppl want to pay ppl less money to do and the only ppl they can do that with are immigrants. Policies designed to cause fear in immigrants to discourage them from migrating only raises the danger of migration: harsher immigration enforcement, as has been touted as virtuous by the president, only makes migrants more vulnerable to human traffickers and less likely to seek recourse when faced with employer abuses, it will not stop them from coming or even keep them from fleeing, only make it more miserable for them when they arrive. For example, unable to seek education for fear of being caught by the government they are trapped in a low class situation. It gets worse with a wall as many migrants will likely choose to seek out coyotes (human smugglers) to help them get over the wall, and make territorial disputes between coyotes more violent.
I can't even really contemplate the wall since it is so ridiculous: so easily surpassed it is largely a symbol of myopathy. The wall won't actually keep anyone but the few that are physically unable to climb it with help, or tunnel under it, out. In this sense that the wall doesn't actually function to address immigration at all, instead it's a monument to that willful American ignorance that refuses to even look at a problem for fear of what it will see. Instead it prefers to take solace in a symbol of defiance that aims to make a discouraging show of hostility into a solution to a complex problem.
this thread was just bait for myzozoa and we all knew it
a better state of affairs than op genuinely believing the content of their post
Asek
Banned deucer.
if you want a candidate that better represents the republican party ideal you hold then why are you supporting trump? i remember before trump was the candidate a lot of republican identifying voters were very hostile to the idea of trump, now hes in and its almost like youve all keeled over and died accepting him, calling him daddy or whatever else you do. why dont you send the message that you dislike his brand of politics by uh... not voting for him? because if he wins again the next republican presidential nominee is almost dertainly going to take a trump like platform lol
I ran some numbers to see how much a wall between American and Mexico would actually cost to run. In this scenario it's already been built.
The average security guard in America earns about $15 per hour (source). Now, realistically you're going to want at least 5 guards per mile of wall (about 2000 miles I believe). Of course it's no good just having them there 9-5 monday to friday - you're going to need them there 24/7. In a year that would come to $1,314,000,000 just in wages for the guards! And that's if you hire the basic average joe security guards - the more highly trained ones charge over $20 per hour. It also doesn't take into account bank holiday pay. And of course you've still got to buy their equipment, and arrange their trasportation (no way would there be enough parking spaces).
I mean sure, you could spend that money on causes such as doing up poor hospitals, improving poor schools, researching cures for debilitating illnesses and injuries, improving care for wounded veterans and researching green energy, but hey, why would you do that when you can have a mostly-useless wall?
Immigrant: Oh no, what am I going to do now?
Trafficker: No problem, just get on this plane. Or on this boat. Or on this train. Here's a temporary Visa - when you get to the states, just keep your head down and obey the law and you'll be fine.
The average security guard in America earns about $15 per hour (source). Now, realistically you're going to want at least 5 guards per mile of wall (about 2000 miles I believe). Of course it's no good just having them there 9-5 monday to friday - you're going to need them there 24/7. In a year that would come to $1,314,000,000 just in wages for the guards! And that's if you hire the basic average joe security guards - the more highly trained ones charge over $20 per hour. It also doesn't take into account bank holiday pay. And of course you've still got to buy their equipment, and arrange their trasportation (no way would there be enough parking spaces).
I mean sure, you could spend that money on causes such as doing up poor hospitals, improving poor schools, researching cures for debilitating illnesses and injuries, improving care for wounded veterans and researching green energy, but hey, why would you do that when you can have a mostly-useless wall?
Immigrant: Oh no, what am I going to do now?
Trafficker: No problem, just get on this plane. Or on this boat. Or on this train. Here's a temporary Visa - when you get to the states, just keep your head down and obey the law and you'll be fine.
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A large portion of the Republican base, and the majority of the Republican establishment, disliked Trump during the last election and still do. It really boils down to conservatives preferring Trump to any Democrat. Many of them would love to vote for another Republican candidate since they see Trump as an arrogant jackass, but choosing not to vote Trump in 2020 means an easy win for a Democrat, and they'll never let that happen. It's also worth mentioning that 2016 was a major backlash against the establishment of either party; Trump and Bernie grew very popular because they weren't seen as partisan puppets. Despite his unpopularity, Trump was a shoe-in because of this. I doubt his radical policies will prove successful among voters in the long run.
haha yes easy likes for posting in politics thread
got em
got em
is that what we're calling them now
"Trump's economic numbers are just leftovers from Obama era policies "
Makes perfect sense when you consider the catalyzing moment for the "Obama Leftovers Boom" was his departure from office and gains were realized only after Trump's tax reform passed. Save the economic fantasy arguments for the other 2020 thread.
Primary:
A serious primary challenge isn't going to emerge. Romney, Kasich, et al are too cowardly to actually stick to anything with conviction.
Bill Weld might do it, but he's a notorious drunk who has killed every single political party he's ever touched. His last foray here in Massachusett (in 2014) had him endorsing Democrats over Republicans for state legislative seats, which our state GOP censured him over afterward. Honestly instead of becoming a Republican, he should have registered as a Democrat and run for office in Virginia. Lots of vacancies over there soon.
"The Wall:"
No one has proposed a physical wall on all 2000 miles of border. Critics of the Trump Administration's proposal haven't even read it. The wall is only intended to go up in areas identified by border enforcement as specifically problematic areas. A much larger portion of the funding goes to enforcement at ports of entry and other immigration reforms.
SOTU:
Trump's SOTU speech was great. It's a testament to his abilities as a showman that it lasted so long and stayed interesting. He even managed to get the Dems to stand up and applaud (though only for themselves.). Got to love Bernie's face when he said America would never be socialist. When you actually listen to Trump, it's obvious he loves the country and what it stands for and has stood for historically. His flaws probably would have been prohibitive had Democrats not set the standard that adultery isn't a big deal by keeping the Clintons so prominent.
The opposition:
Democrats have a problem. Public perception of Trump is that he's a jackass who keeps his promises, focuses on problems at home, and avoids new foreign adventurism. Trump's economic reforms have basically ensured the economy is not going to tank in his first term, he's made the United States too attractive to overseas corporate investment. Democrats claimed Trump would tank the economy when he was first elected, now as you can see they are promoting the "Obama leftovers" theory to explain the good economy.
If Democrats were willing to run someone who is basically moderate and pleasant, they could give him a lot of trouble because they could focus on his abrasive personality. No such person has a prayer of winning a Democrat primary. Biden is closest but he has a lot of Obama baggage hurting him from the right (only matters in a general election), and the left is thoroughly sexist against men, racist against white people, and ageist against old people, and Biden is all three. Biden cannot win in a party that thinks being young, ignorant, and socialist are positive traits.
If I had to place odds on who wins the Dem primary, it's Cory Booker.
Harris's history as a prosecutor is going to sink her.
Warren is literally a white woman who used cultural appropriation to get ahead in life.
Sanders will be buried by former Hillary supporters who thought he dragged her down and harmed her.
Beto is a pretend latino. He probably wins the Texas primary, but how much that translates in the rest of the south is unknown. My gut tells me he'd place second.
Also-rans have no name recognition at all, and can't beat Warren or Harris when it comes to far-left vitriol.
**If Clinton runs again, she's going to split the party in half. All bets are off, but she won't be the nominee. Her endorsement matters a lot though.
Booker outlasts because he's the most authentic of the "identity" candidates, doesn't alienate the strongest power players in the Marxist political coalition, and his only fib is the invocation of a fictional rapper. Obama's skeleton in the closet was a preacher shouting "God Damn America! US of KKKA!" Booker isn't going to be T-boned by his imaginary friend.
I don't think Spartacus can win against Trump, mind. But he can probably win the Democrat nomination.
In any case I'm stocked up on popcorn, it's going to be a wild ride.
Makes perfect sense when you consider the catalyzing moment for the "Obama Leftovers Boom" was his departure from office and gains were realized only after Trump's tax reform passed. Save the economic fantasy arguments for the other 2020 thread.
Primary:
A serious primary challenge isn't going to emerge. Romney, Kasich, et al are too cowardly to actually stick to anything with conviction.
Bill Weld might do it, but he's a notorious drunk who has killed every single political party he's ever touched. His last foray here in Massachusett (in 2014) had him endorsing Democrats over Republicans for state legislative seats, which our state GOP censured him over afterward. Honestly instead of becoming a Republican, he should have registered as a Democrat and run for office in Virginia. Lots of vacancies over there soon.
"The Wall:"
No one has proposed a physical wall on all 2000 miles of border. Critics of the Trump Administration's proposal haven't even read it. The wall is only intended to go up in areas identified by border enforcement as specifically problematic areas. A much larger portion of the funding goes to enforcement at ports of entry and other immigration reforms.
SOTU:
Trump's SOTU speech was great. It's a testament to his abilities as a showman that it lasted so long and stayed interesting. He even managed to get the Dems to stand up and applaud (though only for themselves.). Got to love Bernie's face when he said America would never be socialist. When you actually listen to Trump, it's obvious he loves the country and what it stands for and has stood for historically. His flaws probably would have been prohibitive had Democrats not set the standard that adultery isn't a big deal by keeping the Clintons so prominent.
The opposition:
Democrats have a problem. Public perception of Trump is that he's a jackass who keeps his promises, focuses on problems at home, and avoids new foreign adventurism. Trump's economic reforms have basically ensured the economy is not going to tank in his first term, he's made the United States too attractive to overseas corporate investment. Democrats claimed Trump would tank the economy when he was first elected, now as you can see they are promoting the "Obama leftovers" theory to explain the good economy.
If Democrats were willing to run someone who is basically moderate and pleasant, they could give him a lot of trouble because they could focus on his abrasive personality. No such person has a prayer of winning a Democrat primary. Biden is closest but he has a lot of Obama baggage hurting him from the right (only matters in a general election), and the left is thoroughly sexist against men, racist against white people, and ageist against old people, and Biden is all three. Biden cannot win in a party that thinks being young, ignorant, and socialist are positive traits.
If I had to place odds on who wins the Dem primary, it's Cory Booker.
Harris's history as a prosecutor is going to sink her.
Warren is literally a white woman who used cultural appropriation to get ahead in life.
Sanders will be buried by former Hillary supporters who thought he dragged her down and harmed her.
Beto is a pretend latino. He probably wins the Texas primary, but how much that translates in the rest of the south is unknown. My gut tells me he'd place second.
Also-rans have no name recognition at all, and can't beat Warren or Harris when it comes to far-left vitriol.
**If Clinton runs again, she's going to split the party in half. All bets are off, but she won't be the nominee. Her endorsement matters a lot though.
Booker outlasts because he's the most authentic of the "identity" candidates, doesn't alienate the strongest power players in the Marxist political coalition, and his only fib is the invocation of a fictional rapper. Obama's skeleton in the closet was a preacher shouting "God Damn America! US of KKKA!" Booker isn't going to be T-boned by his imaginary friend.
I don't think Spartacus can win against Trump, mind. But he can probably win the Democrat nomination.
In any case I'm stocked up on popcorn, it's going to be a wild ride.
Interesting claim. Can I get a source for it? I'm a numbers guy, so I like to see the statistics myself instead of hearing it second hand if I can.
I put the jobs under identity politics, because Trump dedicated about 15 minutes of his speech specifically describing how he have accomplished the stats for minorities through the job numbers. I thought that it was an attempt by Trump to gather minorities' votes from Democrats by demonstrating the actual increase in the jobs for these minorities.
I would like to hear more about Trump slashing the preexisting committee. That is an interesting point that I have not considered before.
I disagree with your take on the economy. I do not agree that the market is expecting a bust. But rather, it is pricing in the current slower than expected growth in the global gdp. I do agree that changes in the terms of taxing the trade between in China and America will affect the cost of consumer goods. However, Trump is trying to eliminate the rules that favors China. You can observe the market's sentiment with Yuan dropping against Dollars. Also, the market is trying to price in Fed and Quantitive Easing policies.
Is all of this because of Trump's tax cuts (which somehow destroyed jobs despite of increasing employment rates)? I would like to read the source that you used to reach this conclusion.
I don't agree with your underlying thesis of "willful American ignorance that refuses to even look at a problem for fear of what it will see". The attempts to build a wall shows that Trump understand the problem. Trump has consulted with experts in this field. Trump has consulted the local people who live in the border towns. I do think that Trump is more educated about this matter than the vast majority of public is. Yes, the wall is only meant for preventing people who want to enter America without entering through the ports of entry. That is the point. I want to the government to know who is entering our country.
I do think that whether if USA government should be willing to accept refugees at the port of entry is a worthy discussion to have. Allowing random people to randomly walk into America without any background research is unacceptable. Yes, some of these people will be refugees, and I do think that we should turn them away in order to maintain the security of the border towns.
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bro, fool me twice w ur bait
in the first place i said it was his trade wars that were destroying jobs, not his continuation of that unfortunate obama era policy of coddling the wealthy. reading is v crucial. you can look up any economic estimate of the job losses caused by trade wars. im not ur google and it's not clear u believe in facts anyway. While you're googling i suggest you check the long term economic forecast, everyday another economist concludes that recession is likely to begin in 2020 due to tax cuts overstimulating the economy in the short term covering up more worrying indicators that have hardly moved throughout the 'recovery'.
it must be nice to be so privileged that you cant imagine being a refugee at any point in the future and think it's worth earnestly discussing discarding international law dictating the treatment of refugees. After all, since you'll never be a refugee why participate in upholding the ethical treatment of them? why care about anyone but urself? dont ask me, im not ur therapist.
and yeah all the ppl on the border support the wall and trump consulted dozens of 'experts' that you can totally name right?
thats why there are dozens of articles identical to this one printed each week about ppl on the border who realize the wall is a complete waste of time:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/08/us/border-wall-crisis-mexico-usa.html
the presidents fear mongering about mexican rapists and big show of sending troops to the border in hopes of provoking another divisive incident surely has nothing to do outsized role in the perception that there is any sort of crisis at the border beyond the humanitarian one that we've brewed for decades. look up u.s interventions in latin america.
if you want to know more about his disastrous work on h.i.v, google is once again a great place to start
heres one: https://www.the-scientist.com/the-n...ntial-advisory-council-on-hivaids-fired-30459
you know that whole time you were regurgitating the trump kool aide you could have been learning the facts of the issues, but alas, here we are.
finally here is the rate that unemployment fell notice the slope has the same value for trump and obama (actually obama's slope is higher, in his second term he added jobs faster than trump, averaging 217k/month vs cheetos 3.8m/20months=190k/month):
we done yet or do i need to also get the charts showing that the trend in hourly earnings growth is also continuous
wrt 'getting the stats done for the minorities' or w.e, I just recall him capitulating to all of nanci pelosi's domestic spending proposals last september. lol, another series of events you can read about on the ol google.
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I understand this because of many hours spent playing WWE for the PS3 at a friend's house
Be careful when using such "low resolution" information to analyse employment - or indeed anything that can be politicised/influenced by conflicting interests (understand that governments have an incentive to sell a certain narrative). Reality is more nuanced than your chart implies, for the simple reason that all jobs are not created equal, yet they are equally weighted within the data. For example, a full time entry level engineering job is not the same value to the economy as a part time barista.
Furthermore, consider the scenario of someone losing a full time role and subsequently taking three part time jobs to make ends meet; well, this is counted as a net +2 in terms of job creation. I do not have the data to hand, but I recall the deeper story being much more complicated and inconsistent, for both Obama and Trump, than your chart suggests - always be suspicious of perfectly upward sloping charts! (Remember Bernie Madoff's investment returns?)
With all of that said, underemployment (for example, an engineering graduate working as a barista) is the actual metric that you should be concerned about. "Underemployment replaces unemployment as the main influence on wages in the years since the Great Recession." The US underemployment rate has not returned to pre-recession levels, and the absolute number of underemployed individuals remains about the same as in August 2007. It is therefore reasonable to conclude that both Obama and Trump have failed miserably on this measure.
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*eye roll* i wasnt analysing government using just one graph, but way to try to say some shade while coming to the exact same conclusion i did. i dont know what youre attributing to me with ur nonsense but we said the exact same post so lol
McGrrr https://www.smogon.com/forums/threa...t-libertarianism-thread.3625512/#post-7786820
still waiting for ur reply to this post too
still waiting for ur reply to this post too