Hi, here are my:
-analysis of the players (which I should have done before but it's easier now that I'm out),
-how I would rank them regarding the likelihood of them winning this circuit.
-and semifinals predictions.
I also want to make things clear: I do not feel entitled to do this because I think I am better than these players. Yes, I'm the current champion. No, it doesn't mean I'm better than anyone without a ribbon. I actually think I've been fairly mediocre since the end of PUPL, and it keeps getting worse, so it was time someone kicked my ass: thank you Lockjaw for that. However I believe I can have a fairly unbiased mind and use it to make a player analysis which, I hope, you reader will enjoy. As someone who played last year circuit's and won every round, I would like to share the way I analyze players and what could go well/go wrong for them. My analysis are also more of a praise than anything, but I also have to underline weaknesses, right? (also sorry for any english mistakes, i'm doing my best)
Rexus:
a player I've had mixed feelings about until now, especially because I never got to play him, so I couldn't be exactly sure of how good he actually was. Having been able to qualify by pretty much spamming rain and stall during Mesprit-lilligant ssnls and pult meta, I first expected him to be eliminated during round1 and 2, but he's just proven to be truly consistent regardless of what team he's using. Rexus is just what you can call without a negative connotation a "PU tryhard", which is something that we didn't really have until now: God knows most PUers prefer using memes than playing only to win (if you want me to justify that I can make a list of all the weird things used in PU games during the last month). I respect that a lot since he does it in a healthy and non-toxic way, and wish him best of luck to become this year's champion. I haven't joined ltpl either but I was told he's doing exceptionally well, and I know from experience that when you get good karma, you usually keep it till the end. Yet, Rexus's teams are nowhere near to remarkable, and one shouldn't forget that playing very well with ever-changing teams isn't enough: one bad matchup vs a similarly-skilled player might sound the death knell of his run.
Thus I rank Rexus #1 to win this tour mostly because he wants it quite badly and that will improve its team selection and playing.
Skipkan:
I like Skipkan, and I've known for a long time he could do much better. This moment has arrived, and I can't help thinking he's just like me last year, being as crazy teambuilding-wise, unpredictable and even using techs I was the only one using such as sunshine and type:null+tangela. Just like me last year, he also doesn't straight up crush his opponents in 2 games but will win in a more subtle way and guess what, a win is a win. I think Skipkan's strength is that unpredictability, which can be stronger than having overall good teams that you don't swap often enough. Whether he wins this tour or not will depend on his ability to retain this unpredictability till the very end while making sure his teams also remain at a high level of synergy and meta adaptation. Also don't forget that Skipkan plays well, so he will get out of troublesome matchups by outplaying his oppos if needed. I admit he is my favorite player out of the remaining four, and I hope my analysis was fair to him.
Ranked #2 for unpredictability mostly, which is what I believe I needed the most to win last year. It is still a double-edged sword if that comes with shaky teambuilding.
HJAD:
I've understood that along MZ you dislike me or whatever, but on my side I don't have any hard feelings towards anyone and I wouldn't make this post with an emotionally-biased point of view, cuz that would be stupid and not cool. So. Nobody is surprised that HJAD is still not out, and there's a very good reason to that. HJAD hasn't been making any outstanding plays or needed anything close to a crazy prediction to win a series for a long time, because he's probably the PUer who makes the most consistent teams, and thus is an amazing button clicker. Nobody seems able to properly prepare for his favorite pokemons such as ferroseed, jellicent and drampa which he will just keep using because, why wouldn't he. And when you don't prep for solid teams, you just lose. However, since I myself have been able to beat him last year by just bringing teams he wouldn't have an edge against, I believe it is not unlikely that Rexus or Skipkan will actually try to prep well and stop this man before he wins the circuit, and it is also not unlikely that HJAD just goes unstopped like in ssnls.
Ranked #3 simply because he doesn't go out of his comfort zone often enough which might lead to a crucial loss in this round or the next. He arguably managed to beat TJ by surprising him in G3 so I might be wrong.
Lockjaw:
Usually I tend to root for the player who beat me, but that isn't the case this time. If anyone has watched lockjaw's games, you can spot two things that characterize him. Firstly, extremely solid teambuilding IMO -I don't know if he builds himself- and secondly, a total lack of outplays, or many that don't work. Lockjaw's strength lies in his teams, and he has lost many games in the past, especially PUPL because his oppo played better. Yet I can't underestimate the sheer efficiency of good building in a tier where building his extremely hard and where there's no specific teambuilding pattern that is "just better" than others since Mesprit the PU cornerstone left. The perfect nemesis of lockjaw would be HJAD: whereas HJAD sticks to his staples which he loves and pilots nicely, lockjaw goes too often out of his comfort zone which is something I feel myself entitled to do and it cost me numerous losses because teams had big flaws I didn't spot in time. I like to think "Lockjaw: the story of sheer building efficiency", and that might be the story of this circuit if his opponents aren't careful.
Ranked #4 because he might not make the plays he would need to win tough games, although he might not need them since he beat me without making any plays, and I don't think I'm a pushover or a hopeless teambuilder either.
Finally, predictions for this round:
Rexus vs Lockjaw | 60-40: it would be easy to put a 80-20 for rexus without thinking and most people would do that, but that would be neither fair nor accurate. Though the latest info about both are: rexus beat MZ who was using gourgeist-small (damn I love this pumpkin but cmon), and Lockjaw beat me without even doing his best, so that could go either way. You surprised? That's semi-finals man, there's no room for 80-20s here.
HJAD vs Skipkan | 45-55: there are two scenarios here: either HJAD wins or he doesn't. Okay, that's kinda obvious. The default option is: HJAD wins, and that would be my pick against anyone else pretty much. But against skipkan, I have to choose the other option: if HJAD does just like he usually does, skipkan won't let him win. I don't know for certain, but skip is gonna prep this well just like I did. Everyone has their comfort zone and the ability to somehwat get out of it, but you always stick to your core understanding of teambuilding, and if skipkan properly spots recurrent weaknesses he will win.
I hope you enjoyed reading. I got to admit I would have liked someone to do this before me, because it's just fun to be a bit serious about Pokémon from time to time. Anyway. GL in rest rexus hjad skip and lock, enjoy your Chritmas everyone, and... ciao!
-ktut
!
but best of luck to everyone here
