WEEK 1 RECAP + WEEK 2 OU PREDICTS!!
Week 1 I went 10/20 on my predicts. A perfect 50/50 split. Right there with The Ape. Let's (hopefully briefly) go over the games. Just for the record before we start, it is much much easier to talk about games from the sidelines and with hindsight than it is to actually play games. With that out of the way...
Spiked-up Glalies
vs
The RaikOUs
violet river > Zpanther
I predicted: violet river
This was a fun matchup and my comment in the predicts was that I was looking forward to seeing the team brings from both, and they delivered on that front as I think these were absolutely two of the best, most intriguing, and modern looking teams brought all week. The key turn in the game itself is probably turn 12 as if Zpanther had Softboiled here instead of STossing, the Blissey very well may have ended up becoming unkillable. River still had two booms from Registeel and Gengar to try to facilitate a Bliss trap, but between Skarm and Gengar, I think Zpanther would have been pretty secure. I'm sure Zpanther feared Focus Punch, which is a very reasonable fear, but yeah I reckon that was the key turn.
Pajama Sam > DepressionCherry
I predicted: DepressionCherry
To my great disappointment, PJ Sam brought one of his standards, perhaps even the most infamous of his standards. It's not a team I particularly care for either as in my view it has almost zero
good matchups and most of the matchups it can expect to face in 2026 are flat-out not good to downright bad. However, to my astonishment, it faced basically it's one decent matchup. A mid-paced SkarmDol balance. The Skarm at least had Thief to help ease the Forre matchup. I think for almost all of this game DepressionCherry was a step ahead, but then on turn 66 he makes a grave mistake by keeping Bliss in, really the one play he cannot make. Switching to any of Suicune (assuming it had Roar, which it absolutely has to here), Dol, or even Skarm were superior and would have a win pretty secured barring bad luck. But yeah he stays in, which flips the interaction to clearly favored for Padeli. I guess this is a good showcase for how he can get 1900+ ELO with this team though. Just stay afloat, wait for the opponent to misplay, and then do SubCM Rachi things.
Amaranth < ima
I predicted: Amaranth
Amaranth reveals himself as a non-mainer right off the bat in this game by having Toxic be the first move clicked with Skarmory, especially against lead Pert, which can absolutely be a good indicator for possible Mag. He doesn't get Mag punished, but I do think ultimately if he had just spiked on that turn, he probably wins this game. Turn 14 was a crucial turn and both players took their time thinking about it. I think you really just cannot afford to go Pert here as Amaranth. It's a flaw of the team, but on Big 5, Pert is tasked with carrying a heavy load vs physical attackers (and has to do so without great anti-spikes measures
) and you know with the mons revealed ima is super likely to have at least one of DDTar, DDMence, or Aero. I think Bliss was relatively free on that turn; ima's Pert has already revealed Refresh so you know it isn't Focus Punch. It has revealed to be faster than your Bliss so you will probably die to two Earthquakes, but in Torrent and with Skarm also looking like a very reasonable sac (which is also a super acceptable play that would have been better than switching to Pert), Pump is likely and then you can just heal off with Bliss. By the way, I'm not calcing but ima almost definitely should have just TPunch'd on turn 38, right?
Mikon > SamuelBest
I predicted: SamuelBest
Not a ton to say about this one, both players brought trade-based spikeless offenses. This is my first time seeing Mikon and they played a pretty steady game, but obviously got the better end of luck. The Leech Seed miss on turn 8 meant Celebi got boomed, and it would have been a big big threat. Game also gets ended by a crit, sad times.
BO3:
Conflict < Endill
I predicted: Endill
Yeah not much to say about this series either other than Conflict got nothing lol. Game 3 would have been an interesting one too if the Mash just hits Smeargle. Any time Smeargle gets that insane amount of value, it's rough...
Degenerate Delibirds
vs
Goo Goo Claydols
eternallywandering < Sinodin
I predicted: eternallywandering
Bit of a funky one this one. Things seem normal until turn 25. I really disagree with the decision to go Charizard here. Obviously, Sinodin is fearing EQ from Forre as he wasn't able to keep his Mag hidden due to getting dragged out by Roar. But by going Charizard it essentially guarantees that all 3 layers will go up eventually. I'll also say that if you're a really astute ADV viewer, you will know eternallywandering's team and know the Forre doesn't have EQ anyways, although admittedly he changed a couple sets here including the Forre's so maybe that's not fair to say. Still though, even if he does EQ a Mag switch, you will at least prevent spikes for the time being. The very next turn eternallywandering pivots CBMence in, and I will say I like Sinodin's decision to then stay in, because as we'll see later the damage on Mence is gonna make a huge difference. For eternallywandering's part, he gets overaggressive in a spot where I think he has a pretty big lead, and could have just gone to Vaporeon. The other obviously key turn is turn 49, where eternallywandering kind of just overthinks it. Sinodin
can click Tbolt and break a potential Sub, but the Sub click is just too safe to not be clicked here. First of all, Sub hadn't even been revealed yet, even if it is a pretty safe assumption. Second, even if Mag actually does click Tbolt on Sub, the sequence just repeats itself again next turn, so the whole scenario really just favors eternallywandering. Sub is also superior to CM if Sinodin elects to immediately switch to Lax, which was also very feasible. I think part of the determination for eternallywandering may also have been a thought that even if TWave was clicked on CM, it wont matter because you can just Sub up after and threaten everything still plus he can just clear status with AromaBliss later, but as we'll see that all ends up being a bit of a misjudgment. In the endgame, you can see where having a couple more Mence ins would have meant everything.
Caloom < WraxiusGaming
I predicted: Caloom
Both players made some nice aggressive moves here. I think Caloom was probably supposed to just start spamming SToss forever starting on turn 32, maybe wouldn't have actually made a difference though? I guess he also was afraid of a potential Tar switch, but yeah. Wraxius's team is a spot where you really don't expect that Rachi set, but it's not an awful fit and this is a good example of how the power of surprise can make all the difference in best-of-1s.
isnialan > Forte
I predicted: Forte
Forte brought the old Italian Offense and just couldn't ever really get out of the starting gates, as isnialan brought Skarm + double normal blob lol. Especially after the Suicune couldn't actually trade directly with Lax. I think maybe on turn 8, Forte needs to try to force progress with DDTar instead of CBMeta, but that's far from a clear determination to make and it ended up being way worse due to the Bliss being Wish and at that point the game was pretty well and truly over. For isnialan's part, they played a steady game and clearly brought the correct team so promising signs going forward in their first ADVPL. For my taste, the team is a bit too much of a no Gengar fish (something Forte might wanna be mindful of going forward) though even if the last is Claydol or Psychic defensive Starmie (and I think it must be one of the two).
scally_wagon < Rambode
I predicted: Rambode
scally_wagon brought Tar5in and made a lot of really bad misplays. I guess nerves are being blamed as this is her first ADVPL, but... if we're being real, I'm worried. For his part, Rambode did his absolute best to make things difficult in the end, panicking when his Pert was revealed as slower than the Blissey and lacking Curse as the Pert often has on this 6. All he needs to do on turn 20 is just go to Aero. Even after that, a lot of these turns Blissey is in, he can just go Aero, but he never does. The game actually gets to a point where it's losable for Rambode with bad luck, but we'll just say he took the scenic route to victory here.
BO3:
NoName6293 > Zinc
I predicted: NoName6293
NoName brought what I'm thinking are Fruhdazi teams all 3 games (not a bad idea), although um, we didn't get to see much of his game 3 team. Zinc brought one of the old Baddummy DefMie classics game 1 and played a very clean game with a solid matchup. Game 2 she brought the team that I believe has been coined as Johntanamo Bay, a very nasty but effective team. It ran into a bad matchup, Rock spam featuring Forre. The Tar was even Double-Edge so it took Dug down with it, which meant sand stayed, as I guess the only mechanism for weather clear is on the Dug. Zinc brought Umbreon SkarmMag game 3, which if I'm being honest doesn't seem like a good call at all into what NoName had brought so far in the set, but I know it can be hard to change course in the middle of a set, and I also don't have NoName's scout in front of me or have any insight into the thought process. It was a SubCune moment, but unfortunately because of this reason I believe you have to go Skarm turn 1, not Bliss.
Flawless Juggernauts
vs
Psystrike Padawans
Pak > Vileman
I predicted: Pak
Pak brought the Skarpherim special and found an excellent matchup, which is about all there is to say about this game. I will say I think a lot of players may have fumbled around vs the Jirachi where Pak handled it perfectly, so that's just a good player handling business. I don’t think I can find any fault in Vileman's play really. There may have been a few turns where you could argue to try for some desperation Dug ins because the gamestate was so bad, but eh not really. The Wisp miss on turn 22 also kind of completely removed outs, but he also got an insanely helpful Tbolt para full para, so that seems more than fair.
Sachumberto > Genexys
I predicted: Genexys
Umberto brought Zpanther "Mix Spam" and Genexys brought a strange team, JoltSpikes featuring no Dol trader except DDTar which is also the only real Blissey switch in on the team. It also featured lead Thief Skarm which is another thing that doesn't exist (unless it's beast ass Resto Chesto Thief) for what should be obvious reasons. The game was really not close and there isn't much to say about it. I will say Pump hitting on turn 27 would have made it at least close, but Genexys had been getting really lucky to get it to that point. Jolteon potentially could have gone triple platinum here if it just had HP Grass, since Umberto's Bliss got crit early. I think Umberto definitely did not expect Jolt at all and was just trying to force damage on Pert, which was more than fair enough. This is one of the many reasons HP Ice Jolt can kinda suck, even when you think you don't need Grass because you think you've got enough Pert switch ins or enough forced damage onto Pert, Ice just generally doesn't carry as much weight game-to-game.
pkThunderbolt > Void
I predicted: pkThunderbolt
Leech brought Big 4 + ZapMence. Not my favorite team at all because it never ever breaks fat and it's not actually all that sound defensively either due to lack of spike control. Void brought some DefMie merchantry. Not sure who the original builder of this was, but it strikes me as Mayo-pilled circa 2024. Also not my favorite team because I feel it relies too heavily on DefMie (though it found its matchup here) and has a rather unsupported CMBliss. The game is straight up decided on turn 10 when Void misses Toxic as he also gets crit by Focus Punch. I don’t see how he possibly doesn't win if this turn just goes as planned. Void does really a pretty great job of clawing it back and the game actually ends up winnable in the end, but yeah really just not too much to say about this one.
Rubyblood < Eden
I predicted: Eden
Rubyblood brought spikeless trapless and I am 99% sure whoever built the team intended for Metagross to click boom turn 1 vs Tar. There is Registeel, Mence, and Pert all in the back so you don't need to keep Meta around for its physical presence, plus there is no spinner. He would have killed a Milotic if he had boomed, which needless to say is good. I think he probably still would not have won though because he would have to contend with spikes and Moltres and this was the rare matchup where Moltres truly goes God mode. Molt matchup so dire that Ruby immediately decided to just try and trade Lax into it, which indeed was really the only possible play. Anyways, this one was not close at all.
BO3:
pixie909 > Prinz
I predicted: pixie909
Prinz brought a neat team game 1, and I think was very favored to win when he lost track of timer. Very sad. Game 2 looked like Prinz had it in the bag when the single most insane Bold Celebi performance ever documented by humankind took place. I guess Prinz needed to Bulk Up on turn 33, although it may not have actually made a difference.
Mighty Psyducks
vs
Thunder Twins
Siglut < robjr
I predicted: Siglut
This was kind of a funny one. Siglut brought Smeargle HO, and well, it flopped. Right off the bat turn 1 is the worst possible outcome and it doesn't get much better from there. Jolt getting crit, Smeargle just barely not able to live Pump after sand. I'm guessing Siglut's last was DDMence. Anyways, these things happen I suppose.
Figull400 < Sato07
I predicted: Figull400
I guess this game shows one of the pitfalls of Raikou as the Zapdos switch-in because a snapshot of Sato's team would probably say Raikou can be a big threat, but instead it accomplishes basically nothing. Other than that, Sato just made the much more aggressive plays and was rewarded for it massively. The game gets ended from Turn 13-16. Sato makes a heads up double on 13 and then I think Figull probably has to just keep Pert in on turn 15. It's a hard play to make especially since you aren't positive it doesn't have HP Grass, but I think it was time to take a risk. He may have thought Pert was simply too valuable vs Flygon/Tar/potential Aero in the back, but Zap was simply wreaking too much havoc and I think Mence + Rachi may have been able to get it done. Then on turn 16, Sato is just feeling himself at that point.
DarthTyros < xtinaxendrix
I predicted: DarthTyros
Neither player clicked an attack until turn 6. Ok then. There were attacks over the next few turns and those were the key turns of the game and Xtina won the prediction games. The Jumpy favorite of Double-Edge Lax killing itself vs Suicune when any other normal move would have won the interaction happened. I think Xtina probably made an unnecessary risk by switching Lax out and attempting a CM war with her own Suicune, even though Tyros's Suicune had already been revealed as being very SpDef. Just letting Lax die to Suicune and then revenging with Raikou seemed fine. I
think Xtina still had trade advantage with that line. Luckily, she gets the eventual HP crit though, but Tyros was definitely right for accepting the war.
Buzzed27 < Janis105
I predicted: Janis105
Jesus Christ, a Dusclops mirror. Not seen since at least the ADV prehistoric period. The second appearance of "Johntanamo Bay" of the week too, good grief. I think Janis's Clops was probably supposed to just kill all here especially when Buzzed didn't even try to avoid having his Bliss trapped (I guess he didn't know what to expect from the Clops, but just going Skarm or maybe whatever the water is was probably always right there anyways), but he rested on the turn Bliss died lol. The game officially ended on turn 41 when Buzzed made the world's most random Charm click of all time. Yeaaaah quite a game.
BO3:
Kristyl > Spreek
I predicted: Kristyl
Game 1 saw Kristyl bring an old classic 6 and Spreek bring Misdreavus Superman featuring GYARADOS. This was one of the sadder Missy performances, Spreek
almost pulled off the gambit of wearing SuitTar down before getting Missy trapped, thanks to the fact the Tar was Salac. The game looked over at that point, but the task of actually killing Flygon + Zap proved quite difficult. Then uh, a bug (?) happened on turn 79. Well then. Kristyl very probably won anyways due to having two booms, but still that was quite something. Game 2, Kristyl used lead Dug and faced back DDTar so she lost. I started using a faster Dug on this 6 for this reason. Sandless Bliss still almost maybe made a miracle happen, but not quite. Game 3 Kristyl brought the old Hclat MixOff, but with Starmie in the lead slot which I think is a smart change. It became clear early in the game that Spreek's response to OffMie wasn't very inspiring. At some point, I think Spreek needed to decide to just boom with Cloy and accept no spikes; I was actually kind of surprised Kristyl kept switching Mie into Cloy for these reasons. I think Flygon looked pretty damn good for Spreek if Mie gets boomed too. Still, this was the best BO3 set of the week.
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Week 2 Predicts
Spiked-up Glalies
vs
Psystrike Padawans
violet river vs Vileman - Vileman did not look bad week 1; just ran into a buzzsaw both player and matchup wise. Unfortunately, River isn't exactly a great candidate to get a better break versus.
Pajama Sam vs Genexys - This is a very weird one to predict. If PJ Sam is gonna mix it up in this tour, he didn't give it away week 1. That should advantage Genexys, but his team choice week 1 didn't inspire me at all, and now he might overthink things while PJ Sam just stays steady.
Amaranth vs
Void - Despite week 1, I do still think Amaranth can get into the swing of things in this tier, but for now I'm gonna bold someone with a bit more experience in the tier and who I think played better week 1.
Mikon vs
eden - I still don't really have a great feel on Mikon, but they played fine enough week 1. I kind of fear eden may end up lost in the sauce at some point as he is wont to do, but for now I'm gonna give him the bold.
BO3:
Conflict vs Prinz - These two both had very frustrating sets week 1, and I think I just trust Conflict more to bounce back from that.
Goo Goo Claydols
vs
Mighty Psyducks
Rambode vs
DarthTyros - Just trust Tyros throughout a game a little bit more.
Forte vs
Siglut - After the great beagle disaster of week 1, Siglut is probably gonna go with something a little more bread-and-butter here and I do still rate him highly in the pool, so bread-and-butter should be good.
Sinodin vs
Buzzed27 - Initial reaction was definitely to bold Sinodin here, but something in my gut says Buzzed brings some sort of spikeless offense here and finds the matchup. Hopefully I'm not influencing players too much saying this type of stuff lol
WraxiusGaming vs Figull400 - Fuck it, Wraxius breakout tournament.
BO3: zinc vs
Kristyl - I'm hoping Kristyl opens up the teambuilder a bit this week
The RaikOUs
vs
Thunder Twins
Zpanther vs robjr - Zpanther should take note of the Cryos ADV scout. robjr will likely not be putting much thought into this game this week.
DepressionCherry vs
Sato07 - Sato looking real strong right now.
ima vs
xtinaxendrix - Sticking to a general practice of bolding mainers over non-mainers.
SamuelBest vs
Janis105 - Close one. I think SamuelBest played better week 1, but I think Janis can outprep him here.
BO3: Endill vs
Spreek - Endill is playing the biggest game of his life this weekend in SPL and will rightfully have all of his attention on that.
Degenerate Delibirds
vs
Flawless Juggernauts
isnialan vs
pkThunderbolt - I predicted Leech would bring something funky week 1, and I was totally wrong, but maybe he is feeling back into the swing of things now.
eternallywandering vs
Sachumberto - Just going off week 1 vibes here. Pre-tournament would have viewed this one as pretty close.
Scally_Wagon vs
Rubyblood - These two had two of the least competitive losses week 1, but Rubyblood certainly has a much much greater track record, so.
Caloom vs
Pak - Probably bolding Pak against the entire BO1 pool until further notice.
BO3: NoName6293 vs
pixie909 - Blaise just a little too solid. Think she might break something weird out to get an advantage over the non-mainer here, which I actually trust her to do properly as well.
