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Resource ADV Beginner's Lounge - Rules/FAQ, Question & Answer

What's the probability of Porygon2 not getting double critted by Dugtrio?
Is it 5.33%?

For simplicity sake, let's say that Dug is jolly, and there's no sand. So Dug must land 2 consecutive EQ crits in order to kill a P2 spamming Recover.

Enemy Dug kills something with EQ, then I revenge trap with P2. So Dug has 15 EQ PP left.
Should I calculate by taking that there are 14 chances left for double EQ crits?

Chance for a crit: 0.0625
Chance for a double crit: 0.0625*0.0625=0.00390625
Chance to NOT get double critted: 1-0.00390625=0.99609375
Chance that all 15 EQs do not double crit: 0.99609375^14=0.946679585
Chance that there's a double crit within those 15 EQs: 1-0.946679585=0.053320415
(so around 5.33%)

(Sometimes I also spam recover with other mons, such as my defensive Celebi vs opposing HP fire Celebi, to avoid losing to crits. But I wonder how safe this really is when there's a lot of HP fire PP to stall, and a double crit would kill me.)
 
As usual for this type of problem, we should work on the smaller problem and try find a general formula or a way to use a computer to do it instead. I'll assume your calcs are correct in that only consecutive double crits will kill.

For remaining PP = 1, the probability of a double crit is 0 trivially.
For remaining PP = 2, the probability of a double crit is 1/256 ~ 0.4% as calculated above.
For remaining PP = 3, the probability is Pr(double crit in 1st 2) + Pr(1st hit no crit & next 2 are) = 1/256 + 15/16 * 1/256, ~0.0075683594 or 0.75%.
Remaining PP = 4, Pr(double crit in 1st 3) + Pr(double crit ONLY in last 2) + Pr(1st is crit, 2nd no crit, then double crits) = 0.75% as above + 15/16 * 15/16 *1/256 + 1/16 * 15/16 * 1/256

And so forth -- this is an easy thing for a computer to do but tedious by hand.

Your quick estimate for PP = 3 would be

Pr(next 3 don't double crit) = 0.99609375^2

Pr(double crit) = 1 - above = 0.0077972412

So yours is an overestimate (more pessimistic than reality). It will obviously get worse as PP increases, but how much worse?

Not too bad actually!
Using https://statisticsfundamentals.com/calculators/coin-toss-streak-calculator/

We see that the probability is 5.06% compared to your 5.33%.

1000024570.jpg


Edit to add: I also verified my calculation for PP = 3 and PP = 32 (for HP Fire) has a double crit probability a touch over 10%.
 
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Thank you.
I think I'll be happy to continue with the plan of stalling out all of Dug's EQs. It's safer, and I end the fight at high hp (even though it costs 16 recover PP).

Hidden Power has 24 PP so double crit probability is 8.17%.

In desperate situations I've also used +1 CM Celebi to stall out Mixed Mence's fire blasts with recover. A crit would kill me, but given fire blast's 85% accuracy and 8 PP, this is a sequence that I've gone for at times. Now that I know about this calculator, I've learnt that the chance of a crit in 8 fire blasts is actually 35.38% (I input the crit probability as 5.3125% since fire blast accuracy is 85%).
 
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Recent ADV OU convert from spectating on the sidelines and mostly doing a lot of Gen 3 random battles. Lost too many times to things outside of my control so I decided to start losing to things somewhat more in my control.

Defensive Suicune and Curselax gives me grief. As to be expected. I got better at not giving those entry points to my opponent so freely after some practice, but I'm struggling a little with reliable damage-dealing counters (obviously Roaring it out works, unless it's last) since it seems like I can just never do enough damage. Using a Suicune myself since, it seems like the single most reliable solution is to Explode on it, but I'm just wondering what the other best options would be. If a Suicune gets +1/+1, what are some actual things you can do in that situation? After tallying your regrets and mistakes that led you there, obviously. I had some fun spiting these sets with a Perish Song Celebi but that was a jury-rigged solution and I am farrrrrr from a team-builder myself yet.
 
milliemilliemillie said:
Recent ADV OU convert from spectating on the sidelines and mostly doing a lot of Gen 3 random battles. Lost too many times to things outside of my control so I decided to start losing to things somewhat more in my control.

Defensive Suicune and Curselax gives me grief. As to be expected. I got better at not giving those entry points to my opponent so freely after some practice, but I'm struggling a little with reliable damage-dealing counters (obviously Roaring it out works, unless it's last) since it seems like I can just never do enough damage. Using a Suicune myself since, it seems like the single most reliable solution is to Explode on it, but I'm just wondering what the other best options would be. If a Suicune gets +1/+1, what are some actual things you can do in that situation? After tallying your regrets and mistakes that led you there, obviously. I had some fun spiting these sets with a Perish Song Celebi but that was a jury-rigged solution and I am farrrrrr from a team-builder myself yet.
Click to expand...
i mean you're correct, perish song celebi is a solid check to lastmons on some teams, it's worse at checking suicune midgame because pressure affects it but it can still phaze it a few times and takes those endgames off the table as long as you have at least 1 pp left

here are a few other options against lax/cune:
-sand removes their ability to chip heal and makes them more manageable overall
-leech seed stops setup blobs from making progress in a lot of situations since their big hp pools heal you so much
-destiny bond
-haze (works against lastmons but keep in mind you only have 24 of them vs cune)
-thief/knock off
-curse + rest lax can only fit two attacks, there's probably something it can't hit as hard as it would like (or, at all, in the case of normal + eq vs ghosts) and cm rest cune is even more likely to only run surf
-water absorb + rapid spin (if they can't roar you onto spikes, they can't hurt you at all unless they have ice beam, and then they can't roar you, so you can cm war them)
-(best against suicune) force it to rest, then drop its defense with a move like dugtrio's screech, switch out, force it to rest again, come back in and 2hko with cb eq
-do your best to respond to these guys before they get set up; best case scenario, you line things up so your explosion mon or mon that is best equipped to outspeed and beat them down (zap, cele, etc. for cune | tar, meta, fighters, etc. for lax) is already in when the cune/lax get sent out, this is easier if you've already scouted their presence earlier in the game by phazing or making them use the mon for its defensive profile, but eventually, you will be able to deduce their presence on teams after enough time in the tier
 
milliemilliemillie said:
Recent ADV OU convert from spectating on the sidelines and mostly doing a lot of Gen 3 random battles. Lost too many times to things outside of my control so I decided to start losing to things somewhat more in my control.

Defensive Suicune and Curselax gives me grief. As to be expected. I got better at not giving those entry points to my opponent so freely after some practice, but I'm struggling a little with reliable damage-dealing counters (obviously Roaring it out works, unless it's last) since it seems like I can just never do enough damage. Using a Suicune myself since, it seems like the single most reliable solution is to Explode on it, but I'm just wondering what the other best options would be. If a Suicune gets +1/+1, what are some actual things you can do in that situation? After tallying your regrets and mistakes that led you there, obviously. I had some fun spiting these sets with a Perish Song Celebi but that was a jury-rigged solution and I am farrrrrr from a team-builder myself yet.
Click to expand...
The direct answer to your question is: basically only Zapdos and Raikou (and slightly less reliably celebi) reliably switch in and outduel a Suicune as it calm minds without exploding.

More broadly though, even these you can't fully rely on since your opponent is under no obligation to leave their Suicune in to die to Thunderbolt. They can still be useful as a temporary get out of jail free card or in a late game scenario where there are no more good switchins to tbolt.

But as xtina says, the real answer to Suicune is usually in passive damage and proactive play. A Suicune at 100% HP and getting a free CM is terrifying and very difficult to answer, a Suicune perpetually at <75% or asleep with 0/1 turns burned often does nothing and eventually dies to hax.

Slower teams usually have tools to stave off most Suicune for some time (e.g. most commonly Blissey + roar user, Blissey can come in and wall the Suicune, force Rest, and Roar user can come in to phaze them once they are asleep). This does not directly kill the Suicune but it gives you more chances to position around it and hopefully fight it the next time on less equal footing.

Offense teams usually use some combination of explosion users and keeping tempo up (Registeel also is very useful). But it's not uncommon to see plays like staying in Tar vs Suicune to trade Tar's life for one or two rock slide hits. If the Suicune player manages to stabilize, rest up, burn their sleep or aroma it, etc. they will win, but it's not so easy to get the turns to do this vs a well piloted offense.
 
Tysmmm, I've been picking up some sample teams from here-and-there but I'll definitely look for some with these options built-in. These two threats were just the two that I felt like I was struggling to intuit an answer to and position for no matter what; maybe it's just the raw intimidation factor every time they start setting up dealing real-life psychic damage. I'm also like literally a newborn grub fresh out of the soil so these things are to be expected.
 
My preferred approach is to call the double switch with Butterfree and either put them to sleep with Sleep Powder or steal their lefties with Thief. And when they have substitute I
 
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