This thread has a lot of potential, especially for newer players, so in order to try & get it going, I'm gonna analyze a couple of SM games that happened for SmogTour poffs (I don't have any current replays to post, sadly):
ABR vs. FLCL
Team Preview:
ABR brings a solid BO build with a common defensive backbone of Toxapex + Landorus, whereas FLCL brings an interesting Zard offense team. Right off the bat, I'd give the matchup advantage to ABR. FLCL's Magearna is predictably AV, otherwise he'd have zero switch-ins to Ash-Greninja and opposing SG Magearna. Zard-X has the potential to put in more work than Zard-Y since ABR has a Tyranitar, Heatran, AND Toxapex, but either Zard looks pretty expendable. Honestly, this game just seems really hard for FLCL to win unless 1) he can weaken Toxapex and Tangrowth to allow Ash-Greninja to win, 2) he can remove ABR's Lando and weaken Tangrowth enough to where a possible scarf Lando could clean with EQ, or 3) he removes both Toxapex and Heatran to allow Clef to win with late game CM (
if he even is CM).
Turn 1: Scarf Lando is revealed because Intimidate went before Electric Terrain. ABR interestingly enough stayed in, probably expecting the U-turn since he had two Ground- resists in the back, and didn't want to lose momentum right away as both switch-ins could be pressured by other Pokemon on FLCL's team. Definitely not a play I would've made, but it worked out.
Turn 6: ABR finds an opportunity to bring Heatran in on Clefable. Heatran is a massive nuisance to FLCL's team - he has two Fire- resists, one of them being perhaps his biggest wincon (Ash-Gren), and the other being a 4x rocks weak Zard. He's forced to sacrifice Zard here and goes down a Pokemon in just 6 turns.
Turn 9: Another very important turn. FLCL does well in turns 7 and 8 to pivot expecting the switch. ABR continued to play aggressively and, instead of switching out his Toxapex (the only solid answer to Ash-Greninja now that Tangrowth revealed Rocky Helmet), he stayed in and went for Scald. I don't blame FLCL for predicting the switch here (I would've done the same), as HP Ice does a good chunk to both Lando and Tangrowth. Again, I definitely wouldn't have risked the primary answer to opposing Ash-Greninja, especially because with ABR's defensive backbone he has the upper hand in the rest of the battle if he makes solid switches, but it ended up working out for ABR. This in turn means that FLCL's hopes of sweeping late game with EQ are now impossible.
Turns 10-13: ABR finds another opportunity to bring Heatran in vs Clefable, and once again, it's able to pick up a kill since FLCL can't afford to let Greninja die.
Turn 19: Small note, but I think it's very important that newer players understand how to close out battles so I wanted to point this turn out.
With FLCL's Torn-T dead and Greninja being poisoned, ABR should prioritize keeping his Toxapex healthy in the long run to handle both Greninja and Clefable, since those are the only two ways that FLCL can still win. ABR could've kept rocks up to keep chipping down FLCL's team, but he had no need to at this point; all he had to do was maintain his team as healthy as possible. The key here is to not get impatient when you're already up two Pokemon.
Turn 21: Once again, Heatran comes in for free, but I think it's interesting that ABR decided to go for SR instead of Magma Storm. He might've been preserving it later for Clefable / an extremely slim chance of SG Magearna, but at this point removing Greninja would've been an easier path to victory (although he also might've thought FLCL would let Lando die and attempt to stall Magma Storm out, as hard as that would've been).
Turn 24: FLCL reveals Healing Wish Clefable, which is really cool. Since ABR no longer needs Heatran (it gives Gren an opportunity to transform), it was a good play to just let it die and bring Lando safely in versus an EQ locked Lando.
Turn 27: Time to figure out whether Magearna was AV or SG, and surely enough, it was AV. If it was SG + BoltBeam + Z Fight (worst case scenario for ABR), I think ABR still had it in the bag, as he would simply spam Haze, go Lando, and spam EQ. Whenever FLCL's Lando switches in, ABR has too many things that can eat a U-turn and do considerable damage to Magearna (EQ from TTar and Thunderbolt from Koko), but it would've been intersting to see how it would've played out.
Conclusion:
The matchup here favored ABR, and although I think he played a bit too aggressively around FLCL's Lando, he was able to get a couple key turns correctly and secure the win. I don't really think there was anything FLCL could've done differently besides going for EQ on Turn 1 and Turn 9, but I don't blame him for making the plays that he did. He also had a pretty cool team, so props to him.
We Three Kings vs. Energy
Team Preview:
From W3K's side, Heatran has a pretty good matchup if it carries Toxic. If he is able to weaken and/or remove Gastrodon and Heatran, Laurel lacks a reliable switch-in for Heatran, as nothing wants to take a Magma Storm. However, Heatran is also the primary answer to Reuniclus if it finds a free switch-in. Laurel, imo, has a better matchup here than W3K. Weavile can spam its dual STAB pretty freely and cripple anything that comes in. Mega Scizor has a phenomenal time if Laurel manages to weaken Heatran, as it can potentially setup on Clefable and Landorus. Lastly, Reuniclus has a very good shot at winning late game, as it forces Greninja and Heatran to attack it, easing predictions for Laurel whenever it comes in.
Turns 1-10: Nothing too unexpected here, but it's important to note that Gastrodon is forcing either Amoonguss or Clefable to come in every time. This eases predictions for Laurel and gives him a chance to double out accordingly.
Turn 15: This is one of the most important turns of the match. Looking at W3K's team, this is obviously Mega Latios, and everyone knows that they pack EQ by now. I think doubling into Heatran here predicting either Reuniclus or Scizor was the better play, as Heatran covers both. Gastrodon was also an option, but W3K doesn't lose much from that, as he has Clefable and Amoonguss in the back. Scizor doesn't do a ton for Laurel here, as Latios is probably packing HP Fire. Instead, Reuniclus coming in means that it gets a free CM off, forces Heatran to come in, and can severely weaken it with Focus Blast (which is what happens). With Heatran gone, Reuniclus has a clear shot at an end game sweep.
Turns 15-30: Not really much happened here, since Laurel really only has to play solid until Reuniclus can get an opportunity to setup.
Turn 31: Pretty interesting turn since both switched out, but I'm not 100% on what each were expecting. I think that W3K went Greninja expecting Heatran to come out, allowing him to U-turn on the Heatran switch-out to gain some momentum. Maybe Laurel went Weavile thinking that W3K would go Mega Latios to try and pressure Heatran?
Turn 32-33: The Hydro Pump was extremely unfortunate for W3K, as not only do Greninja and Clefable get weakened, but he misses out on removing Weavile, which is still a massive threat for his team. I'm pretty surprised that Laurel risked Greninja being scarfed, as I don't think W3K had revealed the item yet, and Laurel still had the chance to remove hazards and utilize Weavile later on.
Turn 34: Reuniclus gets to come in versus Clefable, and after it heals back to full, it's over. Not much W3K can do besides hope for hax here, which doesn't end up happening.
Conclusion:
Overall, I think that W3K played pretty well given the difficult matchup he had to begin with. In order to beat Reuniclus, he had to play very aggressively and not give it a single turn to come in freely. After one slip up, W3K was forced to sacrifice Heatran and stood little chance to beat Reuniclus afterwards. Laurel also played very well with my only critique being risking Weavile later on, as it had the potential to do a ton of damage to W3K's remaining team. Good replay that shows two common metagame trends in Gastrodon and Reuniclus.
