Tournament AGPL III - Commencement Thread

Nevelle

fly high
AGPL III Power Rankings

Welcome to the Power Rankings for AGPL III! I have taken up the mantle from Catalystic, who usually does this. This is the third edition of these power rankings, with the goal of these rankings to hype up the upcoming few weeks and give a representation of where each team is believed to stand in relation to the other teams. To obtain these rankings, for every single Tier, we have asked a manager from each team to rank everyone not on their team in that tier. The calculation for the total score is determined by the sum of scores for each tier; first place gets 6 points, second place gets 5 points, etc.

For tiers with more than 6 people, I decided to divide the score by the number of slots to balance it out. For example, Galar has 3 slots, so scores would range from 1-18, which would be scaled down to between 1/3 and 6. This time around, I decided to add a new ranking to the spreadsheet for fun. This additional ranking, titled "Managers' Picks", is a ranking created simply by asking a manager from each team to rank every team excluding their own, from 1-5. These numbers were averaged to obtain the Managers' Picks ranking. It is interesting to see how the Managers' Picks differ from the actual Power Rankings.

Even though the whole system serves to be as unbiased as possible, it does not mean these rankings will be predicative of final results! If you or your team end up low on this power ranking, please don't take it to heart; this tournament is meant to be fun and it is up to you to prove opinions wrong! However, if you feel that your pride hinges on these rankings, you may feel free to voice your complaints here and they might be answered.

A big thank you to all of the managers for contributing to the rankings! This includes Icemaster cromagnet Quantum Tesseract Fardin Kate Zayele. Now, here are the rankings!

1. :lycanroc: Limitless Lycanrocs :lycanroc:
2. :lapras: Lottery Laprases :lapras:
3. :vivillon: Vicious Vivillon :vivillon:
4. :luvdisc: Likable Luvdiscs :luvdisc:
5. :crobat: Crooked Crobats :crobat:

6. :sableye-mega: Salt Mining Sableyes :sableye-mega:

RankingGalarNatdexUSUMORASBo3
1Fcdefault0SkarphchloIcemaster (TIE 1)
2baconeatinassasinKatejrdnkeysFardin (TIE 1)
3PinkDragonTamerNevelleMZLeruWSun1 (TIE 3)
4TrueNoraGeysersAndyboyHighlordZayele (TIE 3)
5Royal1604Staxi64 SquaresMAMPPurpleGatorade
6TJYamivelvetmc56556Quantum Tesseract
7Fatfighter2GRNBLN
8lotiasiteSiTuM
9MonsareeasySatanic Beast (TIE 9)
10Shivam3299Alpha Rabbit (TIE 9)
11MaxomegaTemp
12jerryl309Frozoid
13BallFire
14Rotten (TIE 14)
15LiderMeliodas (TIE 14)
16Indercover
17Trade
18BasedWhat?

Full Spreadsheet

Thanks for reading. I hope we have a fun AGPL III!
 
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Paino

O' hallowed moon, take fire and scorch my foes!
So one day bored I figured I would use basic statistics to get a feel of how much each player would go for in the draft. So I spent a few hours compiling data from each of the 11 mocks to find out

Can mock drafts be used to predict a player's price in the real auction?
Methods.
I took each player's price in each mock that they were drafted in and compiled the average and 95% confidence interval, which gave me an appropriate estimate of how much a player should go for in the draft if the managers for real played like the managers in the mock. This is also why I didn't participate in these mocks, as I did not want to alter the data since I was doing this. I use the number of drafts a player was chosen in as the sample size to base the projected price interval for that player.

Results.

Confidence intervals are at the 95% confidence interval. Red represents an inaccurate projection and green represents an accurate projection. The projected intervals are not in multiples of 500 like the draft due to the nature of the calculations. N/A represents the interval of a player only drafted in 1 mock since no interval can be calculated.

Interpretation and Conclusions.
From the data above, out of 56 players drafted (managers don't count and Leru & 64 Squares) were not involved in any mocks), 26 (46%) were correctly predicted, 24 (43%) were drafted for less than predicted, and 6 (11%) were drafted for more than predicted. So it does not seem that mock drafts are an accurate indicator of a player's real price. However, mock drafts can still be used as a good gauge for managers to base their draft plans on as 89% of players went for equal or less than their expected price!





Everyone wonders that, and the answer is simple. You just brible agl 50$ in cash
There are inherent issues with this method. All 11 mock drafts were included in the data so the players available to draft do not reflect the pool at the end (i.e. Dockiva withdrawing, pichus joining late).
Overall, some very interesting data, AG is unique in that there is a mock draft nearly every day so there was a lot of data to use for this. Hope you all found this as interesting as I did.

Also go crobats! View attachment 352711

That was alot of data and I like how you compiled it all, thanks for it I might look into it more



that feeling when Paino was chosen in AGPL
Fun fact: the easiest way for a benchwarm- I mean, great player like me to get into agpl was just bribing AGl 50$ in cash

He didn't actually bribe AGL doffus
 
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Sorry for being so late, but draft prediction results!


draft survey results q1.png

Red boxes surround the five players who were the most expensive in the proper auction. PinkDragonTamer, Skarph, Fc and baconeatinassassin were the four frontrunners most voted for, and it (unfortunately) ended up proving true. However, jrdn was only selected once (by RuthlessDragon6), his price perhaps a surprise to many. The other clear popular options were Zayele, WSun1 and default0, all of whom ended up being top 10 on the pricelist.


Most expensive player overall (and their price)?
Skarph was decidedly the most common answer, with half of 28 respondents voting for him to be the top pick. However, it was Fc who ended up being the most expensive with a 23 000 credit price tag, with Bread Sandwich's guess of 25 000 credits being the closest of the four respondents who thought it was going to be Fc. The other common answers were PinkDragonTamer and me, which isn't very surprising after the first question. Shoutout to Tic-Tac-Toe Guru for guessing Skarph's price of 22 500 credits correctly though!


Most expensive SS AG player?
Fc was by far the favourite to be most expensive here, with 19 of 26 users (73%) expecting him to be so, with PinkDragonTamer receiving the second-largest share of votes with 4. While I didn't ask for a price here, kudos anyways to AssaultDestiny and Superkillerpo1 for providing the correct guess of 23 000.


Most expensive NatDex AG player?
This one wasn't as clear-cut; votes were distributed fairly evenly, with WSun1 and default0 tied as the most frequent responses, both receiving 6 votes each out of 23 answers (~26%). They ended up costing the same price of 16 000 credits in the auction, but however, WSun1 has started in the BO3 slot in the first week. PinkDragonTamer and I were more expensive and also received a fair share of votes, but we're both not starting in NatDex as well, so these ones are technically incorrect. Sorry if I wasn't clear in what I was asking.


Most expensive USUM player?
A whopping 20 of 25 users (80%) correctly answered Skarph, with each of the remaining respondents giving different answers.


Most expensive ORAS player?
Another rather one-sided question, with 16 out of 23 answers provided (~69.5%) anticipating Zayele to be the most expensive Darkrai enjoyer, with Chloe being the next-most answered player with 4 responses listing her. While Zayele is starting in BO3 week 1, she did only sign up for ORAS, so I'll count it as correct.


Team with most players drafted?
Funnily enough, the Likable Luvdiscs was by far the most frequently chosen team, receiving 14 of 30 votes (~46.7%), probably because they're so amiable. However, it was the Salt Mining Sableyes who ended up the largest team for a second year running with 13 players, with 6 respondents correctly selecting them.


How many times will the .overpay command be used?
Thankfully for me, I didn't have many overpays to tally at all, with the command being used only 4 times in the auction (correct me if I'm wrong!). It seems like this year's managers are not too mean. The closest anyone got was 3, so congratulations to WSun1 and Superkillerpo1.


Thanks to everyone for participating! I'll try to think of more interesting questions for next year :psywoke:
 

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