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[Battling 202 Test Run - Singles] Mentor Frosty vs Pupil ZhengTann

If you aim for flinches, I will just let the RNG be rolled normally. Assuming that is the course of action you prefer.
 
Let's see... 3 Rock Slides will deal a total of 37 damage rounded up, leaving Azumarill with 15 HP. If I try this, next round I can do 3 Poison STABs, subbing for:
a) Endure with Toxic,
b) Aqua Jet combo with Acid Armour,
c) P/E with hazards.

But, unless I score 2 flinches or more (21% chance of that happening, not accounting for critical hits), Crucible is still taking more damage than it will with Plan Skill Swap, since you can just trigger the Endure sub and land a Bulldoze before succumbing to Toxic. Not great odds. So nah, I think I'll pull a smashlloyd and walk the relatively unsurprising path down to my doom loss.

No changes to orders.
 
Skill Swap grants you 17.25hp worth of extra hp for you or minus hp for azumarill. Gunk Shot is better in that regard as is Stealth Rock. Its a questionable move. Toxic I get, although I would rather have you try gunk shot to poison before poisoning.

Please change/justify skill swap and move toxic to the end of the round. Assuming you don't rather finish off azumarill right now. Since, you know, you are not in position to keep sacrificing more and more hp to get last-to-order advantage
 
Skill Swap actually grants me a 23.625 HP lead in this round alone, since at R3 Attack Azumarill's losing out on 4.5*1.5 = 6.75 damage on each Aqua Tail, plus 4.5*2.25 10.125 damage from the Bulldoze. Huge Power giving +1 Attack Rank to Crucibelle makes up for +1 Defense Rank from Sea Incense to Azumarill due to loss of Huge Power.

Also, it's not just about the worth of the extra HP. It's also going to be about how many actions Crucibelle can attack before she is KO'ed, as well as playing against my personal weakness. Under the Skill Swap orderset, accounting for
Gunk Shot > [KO'ed Azumarill] > [KO'ed Azumarill]
IF Natara-Azumarill is under the effects of Protective/Evasive moves, THEN replace that action with Reflect instead, pushing remaining queue back.
IF Natara-Azumarill is under the effects of Dodge, THEN replace that action with Reflect instead, pushing remaining queue back.
IF Natara-Azumarill would use a Water-type Damaging Priority Combo, THEN replace that action with Protect (self) instead, pushing remaining queue back.
Crucibelle will at most take an Aqua Jet from Azumarill next round before KO-ing it in return (even at -1 Speed Crucibelle is faster), ending up with 50 HP with last-to-order advantage.
Not accounting for crits......
  • Toxic > Gunk Shot > Gunk Shot: I barely KO Azumarill, Crucibelle is left with 37 HP, and I will have to order first against your full-HP replacement.
  • Gunk Shot > [filler attack] > Gunk Shot: Achieves the same thing as above.
  • Gunk Shot > Gunk Shot [poisoned Azumarill] > Toxic: I can use some Substitutions to change Toxic into a filler attack, achieving the same as the above two.
  • Gunk Shot [poisoned Azumarill] > Gunk Shot > KO'ed Azumarill: Crucibelle will be left with approximately 79 HP, ordering first against a full-HP replacement. While this is a very good outcome, it is also too unreliable.
  • Gunk Shot > Gunk Shot > Toxic: None of the Gunk Shots poisoned, I miss KO-ing Azumarill, Crucibelle is left with 37 HP, and I end up ordering second against your full-HP replacement with even less HP on Crucibelle. Any attacks less than Gunk Shot, including Stealth Rock, achieves the same results. Skill Swap does this with much less HP loss on Crucibelle's part.
  • Skill Swap [Liquid Ooze <-> Huge Power] > Gunk Shot [poisoned Azumarill] > Toxic: I can use some Substitutions to change Toxic into a filler attack, achieving the same as the above two. However, if Gunk Shot did not poison Azumarill, then I should be 1 HP short of KO-ing Azumarill A1 next round, leaving Crucibelle vulnerable to a combo.
  • 3 flinching attacks: Mentioned above, it is too unreliable.
As I see it, anything else is either too unreliable, or would cause Crucibelle to end up with much more damage taken, most probably being left with <40 HP by the end of this round alone. Taking in a random example, Earthquake from your Colossoil w/ Rare Candy would deal [10+4+(9-4.5)]*2.25 = 41.625 damage. This means that Skill Swap is the best option I have for Crucibelle to survive longer. And the more actions she survives through, the more attacks she gets to dish out, and the better chance I have to even back on the overall damage race. Forcing you into a first-to-order position also helps me a lot.

tl;dr - Skill Swap is actually the best option to sacrifice the least HP for last-to-order advantage.
 
I was probably high when I make that skill swap calc. Good call.

Still, there are some other things I want you to consider before we proceed:
1) I could be wrong here (god knows how common that is lately), but if you go, say, Skill Swap - Gunk Shot - Infestation IF Gunk Shot rolls poison then Clefable, you get your guaranteed KO with a chance of extra profit.
2) Ok I order first, but it means you won't be able to counterswitch against the colossoil that will most definitely come in. In a Colossoil vs Crucibelle matchup, can you avoid getting hit by Earthquake, getting hit by Rapid Spin and getting hazards rebounded even while I order first? If you think you can, or you are willing to pay that specific price, then sure, let's do it. If not, I suggest you relook ordering first as something not that bad.
3) The end result of this and the next round, assuming your orders in the first hide tag do as you say they will, is something along the lines of:
Azumaril: ded
Crucibelle: 6atk and 50hp.
Then in comes Colossoil. You are losing the damage race and stuck on a bad matchup. You think you can turn the tables with that? At which point? I mean, unless you've thrown in the towel, you need to predict a turning point on your game. A specific situation you will try to trigger that will have some chance of getting you a chance of a comeback. Regardless of the pick for these orders, I need you to think on the following rounds and try to determine a possible (even if unlikely) turning point. If you don't have a goal and play on automatic, then yeah, it will be like you said: a battle of gardevoirs and gallades and sableyes and good (bo-ring) mons. But if your team is good enough, it should provide you with those kind of turning points, of goals. To be more specific: your goal is to use up hazards to deliver pain, right? Which course of action, now or later, may make it happen?

To make your life easier: you don't need to justify your next move. If you change the orders, just post the change. If not, just say "as is". Also, you don't need to overthink your decision any further. Read what I said above, if that doesn't change your mind on the moment you read it, go with "as is" and I will get exclaimer to ref.
 
... I checked back on page 2 and found out all of us missed the fact that Froslass Toxic'ed Azumarill 2 rounds prior. So Azumarill should have 4 less HP at the end of last round, so 48 HP means I can actually end up with more EN and a helluva lot more HP by outspeeding and KO-ing A2. If that doesn't change your first-orders:

Gunk Shot > Gunk Shot > Wood Hammer
IF Kafei-Azumarill is already KO'ed, THEN replace that action with Stealth Rock instead.
 
froslass.gif

Snow Cloak / Cursed Body
14 HP | 28 EN
2/3/3/3/127 (+19% Acc)
STATUS: Stealth Rocks

--------------------VS.--------------------

azumarill.gif
@ Sea Incense
Thick Fat / Huge Power / Sap Sipper
52 HP | 53 EN
6/4/1/4/50
STATUS: Spikes (2), Disabled! (Knock Off, 4a), Toxic! (2 DPA)

(All effects must be LESS THAN in order to activate. For HIT, has to be LESS THAN to hit. All rolls are out of 10,000.)

A1

Froslass uses Spikes!
-12 EN


Azumarill uses Copycat!
Azumarill replicates Froslass' Spikes!
-10 EN

Azumarill is hurt by the Poison! -2 HP

A2

Azumarill uses Waterfall!
8 + 3 + 4.5 = 15.5 DMG
-5 EN


Azumarill is hurt by the Poison! -2 HP

Froslass: -16 HP, -12 EN
Azumarill: -4 HP, -15 EN

froslass.gif

Snow Cloak / Cursed Body
HPKO | 16 EN
2/3/3/3/127 (+19% Acc)
STATUS: Stealth Rocks, Spikes (1)

--------------------VS.--------------------

azumarill.gif
@ Sea Incense
Thick Fat / Huge Power / Sap Sipper
48 HP | 38 EN
6/4/1/4/50
STATUS: Spikes (3), Disabled! (Knock Off, 2a), Toxic (3 DPA)

ZhengTann
612.png
KO'ed

Frosty
598.png
KO'ed

ZhengTann sends out and equips
Frosty orders
ZhengTann orders
 
crucibelle-mega.gif
@ Crucibellite
Regenerator / Mold Breaker / Liquid Ooze / Magic Guard
110 HP | 100 EN
5/3/3/4/132 (+20% Accuracy)
STATUS: Stealth Rocks, Spikes (1)

--------------------VS.--------------------

azumarill.gif
@ Sea Incense
Thick Fat / Huge Power / Sap Sipper
48 HP | 38 EN
6/4/1/4/50
STATUS: Spikes (3), Disabled! (Knock Off, 2a), Toxic (3 DPA)

(All effects must be LESS THAN in order to activate. For HIT, has to be LESS THAN to hit. All rolls are out of 10,000.)

Crucibelle is struck by Stealth Rocks! -12 HP
Crucibelle is hurt by Spikes! -12 HP

Crucibelle reacts to ZhengTann's Mega Cutie Mark! Crucibelle transforms into Mega Crucibelle!

A1

Crucibelle uses Gunk Shot!
CRIT: NO (1419>625)
(12 + 3 + 1.5) x 1.5 = 24.75 DMG
-7 EN


Azumarill uses Aqua Tail!
CRIT: NO (6859>625)
(9 + 3 + 4.5) x 1.5 = 24.75 DMG
-6 EN


Azumarill is poisoned! -3 HP

A2

Crucibelle uses Gunk Shot!
CRIT: NO (4760>625)
(12 + 3 + 1.5) x 1.5 = 24.75 DMG
-11 EN


Azumarill is KO'ed!

Crucibelle: -49 HP, -18 EN
Azumarill: -53 HP, -6 EN

crucibelle-mega.gif
@ Crucibellite
Regenerator / Mold Breaker / Liquid Ooze / Magic Guard
61 HP | 82 EN
5/3/3/4/132 (+20% Accuracy)
STATUS: Stealth Rocks, Spikes (1)

--------------------VS.--------------------

azumarill.gif
@ Sea Incense
Thick Fat / Huge Power / Sap Sipper
HPKO | 32 EN
6/4/1/4/50
STATUS: Spikes (3), KO'ed

ZhengTann
612.png
KO'ed
478.png
KO'ed

Frosty
598.png
KO'ed

Frosty sends out and equips
ZhengTann orders
Frosty orders
 
This is Eelektross' moment to shine. 16 BAP Grass Knots and Thunder Stone's silly half-an-Expert-Belt effect means I can outdamage you, forcing you to forgo Rebound shenanigans in favour of pacing me in the damage race. I wish I can use Expert Belt and dream of ORKO-ing you with a crit instead, but I have to at least be able to hit Conkeldurr hard enough neutrally. EDIT: Why did I type out a whole paragraph of reasoning here, and still managed to put Expert Belt down there when I posted :(

On a sidenote I'll be honest - that Toxic play from Froslass 3 rounds prior was an unknown gamble that paid off. As in, I didn't foresee or force it to play out this way, so I'm very much surprised things turned out the way they did. So while this has been an incredible lesson about forging a turning point / win condition with a non-meta team, I have to ask - there isn't another way to really do that more than 1 round in advance without doing Raid-calcs, is there?

Initiating a switch-phase.
Laxus
(Eelektross w/ Expert Belt Thunder Stone) coming in.
Counterswitch?

Your Colossoil is supposed to already have eaten the Spikes damage, so counter-switching puts you at a much worse position, right?
 
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You can't forsee what will happen in details with numbers. You can with the strategy though. I mean, you won't be able to predict that a mon will faint exactly from toxic damage 3 rounds from now...since it is usually dead in 3 rounds. You predict though that toxic will remove endure from the equation and then cause a certain playstyle to be used instead of another.

You can predict numbers in advance too, but that involves encore. Without encore and against a pokemon with any kind of movepool, it doesn't happen. In all instances a close ko is reached, it is mostly a coincidence or a result of previous-round actions. They weren't forseen to that degree of details. Not even with raid-like calcs.


Not Counterswitching regardless.
 
96 BAP Colossoil versus 88 BAP Eelektross. Grass Knot does 30 damage without crits, so this should be a relatively straightforward damage race. Subbing for Encore and Damaging Evasive seems the best - if you use Rapid Spin or Knock Off, the best I can do is to Protect for 1 action anyway. I considered putting in a Giga Drain at A2, but I'm worried that you might come up with RestTalk or Encore shenanigans to stall further.

Grass Knot > Grass Knot > Grass Knot
IF Gyorg-Colossoil would use Encore AND Laxus-Eelektross did not use Dodge in the action prior, THEN replace that action with Dodge instead.
IF Gyorg-Colossoil would use a Damaging Evasive move AND Laxus-Eelektross is NOT under the effects of Substitute, THEN replace that action with Substitute (25HP) instead.
IF Gyorg-Colossoil would use a non-combo, non-suspended Damaging Evasive move, THEN replace that action with Drain Punch + Brick Break {Lightning Dragon's Iron Fist!!} instead.
 
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The first sub has a significant flaw. I suggest you recheck it alltogether.

It doesn't involve sub legality before you ask.
 
Okay. TIL that Deck Knight lied - fast Encore screws everything, full stop. Also Handbook and NDA discrepancies:
Handbook said:
If the result would actually increase the move's accuracy, Dodge has no effect.
NDA said:
If a move's accuracy would be increased by the Dodge command, the Dodge command instead simply fails and the move has normal accuracy.
This gives me hazy memories about discussions had concerning "moves that failed to be used" and "moves that were used but failed". But to spare everyone the headache, shall I just put it in SotG so that we have carbon copies of sentences both ways?

Thinking back, you can't Encore A1, and by the time you use it A2, that would've already been some 40+ HP lead you're giving me. So what I'd want to avoid is being Encored into a move that is not Grass Knot. Edits to my 2nd Sub is in order, even though it might push the envelope on legality. Otherwise, I can probably free up that Encore Sub for a P/E Sub.

Grass Knot > Grass Knot > Grass Knot
IF Gyorg-Colossoil is under the effects of Protective/Evasive moves at A2 OR A3, THEN replace that action with Chill instead.
IF Gyorg-Colossoil would use a Damaging Evasive move AND Laxus-Eelektross is NOT under the effects of Substitute AND Gyorg-Colossoil is NOT ordered to use Encore the next action, THEN replace that action with Substitute (25HP) instead.
IF Gyorg-Colossoil would use a non-combo, non-suspended Damaging Evasive move, THEN replace that action with Drain Punch + Brick Break {Lightning Dragon's Iron Fist!!} instead.
 
one final thing before I order:

everything counts. This goes without a saying and the entire 202 is built around that premise. With that in mind there is something I want you to address on the second sub. These are the D/E moves I have available and the damage they deal:

Dig: (8+3+4.5+1)*1.5= 24.75hp
Dive: (8+4.5)= 12.5hp
Bounce: (11+4.5)*0.67= 10.38hp

It is usually muscle memory to put on 25hp subs as a defense against D/E when you don't have any proper defense to fall back on. Gotta confess I am very skeptical on the effectivity of substitute subs as a whole (I mean, the third sub seems enough for me and I don't gain much by spamming dig (suspend) when ordering last just to chicken dance since it would be unwise of me to switch here (since spikes) and I can't hope to do better ordering first then I did ordering first), but more on that later.

Any D/E that colossoil does, excluding combos for obvious reasons (it would be expensive and fairly inefficient) will deal either 25hp of damage (ftr, it was ruled that, like a pokemon, if a sub has 0.5hp or less left, it is destroyed...a piece of info I assume you lack based on the sub) or less than 15hp. In this situation, the 25hp sub is the only completely unjustifiable. I mean if you use 15hp sub, you will still force me to dig to break it realiably and you will be able to absorb 10hp. 20hp can be jusified by some intense fear of hax. 25hp means you are just feeding my colossoil. I can just order Dig*3 and have you lose 75hp (more than what would happen without that substitution, which is impressive in and out of itself) as well as a fuckton of energy.

So if you insist on using substitute, you gotta calc precisely the hp of it beforehand. A substitute is only worth it if it manages to absorb a big chunk of damage, since the actual hp of the substitute is just you expediting your own loss of hp. It is usually better to just protect if you wanna avoid damage and substitute as a whole is only truly cost efficient is either: a) you want protection for multiple actions or (usually "and") b) your opponent is using either status or weak-ass moves like rapid spin, thief or nuzzle. So consider that, do your calc before ordering substitute. And if you are in doubt, just roll with something else, even Double Team 66% chance of getting rid of a fuckton of damage is usually better than the 5 or so hp you may absorb with a sub.


My anti-substitute lecture aside, that sub is very abusable. Again, I assume the "if a sub has 0.5hp or less left, it is destroyed" ruling is new to you (or some calc done here, by you or me is wrong). But either way if I order "Dig*3" you will use substitute thrice, Colossoil will destroy it everytime (colossoil's big size means it easily overcomes levitate) and you will end up losing hp and energy. While doing squat. Which, I assume you don't want.


Other than that, it seems fine, although it can be improved somewhat. Main orders are great and encore-proof (I can encore grass knot and try a switch, but that would be painful) and I agree that subbing for rapid spin will only delay the inevitable, while you are better off just responding with damage. Replying a D/E with a combo is unavoidable I suppose, Although I'd rather replace Brick Break with Frustration for potential extra damage. But all-in-all simple does it. In these situations you screw up when you overcomplicate it.
 
I... will admit that I did not do the calcs when I penned that Substitution. And now with hindsight, I probably should have moved down the 2nd sub, otherwise it will always take precedence over my 3rd. My current orders below should now cover case of a suspended / combo'ed DE, as unlikely as it could be. Protect exposes me to Encore wasting Eelektross' future actions so I'll take your advice and give Double Team a try, even though it still gives me PTSD from Battle Factory tournament involving a Swampert versus an Alakazam.

Also, I rewrote the combo Substitution so as to avoid triggering twice and using the same combo consecutively. Now if you would order non-combo non-suspended Dig thrice, it would result in Eelektross being at ~43 HP and under combo cooldown while Colossoil has ~34 HP. Which IMO is minuscule-slightly better than my previous version. And I've decided to change my 1st Sub to reflect the chance of a critical hit, since that could result in a KO'ed Colossoil and a ~28 HP Eelektross under cooldown.

Being forced into an A1 combo cooldown while ordering second is not ideal. Then again, if Colossoil is still active, you'd have no means of KO-ing Eelektross A1 short of a combo, you would not want to switch out because of Spikes, and so I can maybe dance around a bit without worrying about Encore right off the bat. If Colossoil is KO'ed, you lost a flavourless, reliable way to remove hazards, which is a good thing despite Eelektross being at ~28 HP.

Spending the 1st Substitution on a 6.25% critical hit chance seems iffy, I admit. But I'm willing to gamble on scoring that KO, and putting anything else that I could think of there (eg. "IF P/E THEN Chill") seems to serve little further purpose (Eelektross will very likely not need the 12 EN from a Chill, and I can't use set-up moves because again, Encore).


Grass Knot > Grass Knot > Grass Knot
IF the Substitution below activated twice and the Drain Punch + Knock Off {Lightning Dragon's Iron Fist!!} combo scored a critical hit during the first activation, THEN change the second instance from Giga Drain + Signal Beam {Raging Bolt!!} to Grass Knot + Grass Knot {Thunder Palace!!} instead.
IF Gyorg-Colossoil would use a non-combo, non-suspended Damaging Evasive move AND Laxus-Eelektross is NOT under combo cooldown, THEN replace the first instance with Drain Punch + Knock Off {Lightning Dragon's Iron Fist!!} and the second instance with Giga Drain + Signal Beam {Raging Bolt!!} instead.
IF Gyorg-Colossoil would use a Damaging Evasive move AND Laxus-Eelektross is NOT under the effects of Substitute, THEN replace that action with Substitute (20HP) instead.
 
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eelektross.gif
@ Thunderstone
Levitate
100 HP | 100 EN
5/3/5/3/43 (-10% Evasion)
STATUS: Stealth Rocks, Spikes (1)

--------------------VS.--------------------

frontnormal-mcolossoil.png
@ Rare Candy
Rebound / Guts / Pressure
120 HP | 100 EN
6/3/2/3/110 (+14% Accuracy)
STATUS: Spikes (3)

(All effects must be LESS THAN in order to activate. For HIT, has to be LESS THAN to hit. All rolls are out of 10,000.)

Colossoil takes damage from the Spikes! You'd think something of that size wouldn't care so much about tiny spikes. -24 HP
Eelektross is pelted by Stealth Rocks! -12 HP

A1

Colossoil uses Rapid Spin!
CRIT: NO (6506>625)
4 + 4.5 = 8.5 DMG
-6 EN

Spikes are removed from Colossoil's field!

Eelektross uses Grass Knot!
CRIT: NO (8962>625)
(16 + 1 + 3) x 1.5 = 30 DMG
-11 EN


A2

Colossoil uses Fake Out!
CRIT: NO (9139>625)
4 + 4.5 = 8.5 DMG
-4 EN


Eelektross flinched!

A3

Colossoil uses Drill Run!
CRIT: NO (6805>1250)
(8 + 3 + 1 + 4.5) x 1.5 = 24.75 DMG
-5 EN


Eelektross uses Grass Knot!
CRIT: NO (9009>625)
(16 + 1 + 3) x 1.5 = 30 DMG
-11 EN


Eelektross: -54 HP, -22 EN
Colossoil: -84 HP, -15 EN

eelektross.gif
@ Thunderstone
Levitate
46 HP | 78 EN
5/3/5/3/43 (-10% Evasion)
STATUS: Stealth Rocks, Spikes (1)

--------------------VS.--------------------

frontnormal-mcolossoil.png
@ Rare Candy
Rebound / Guts / Pressure
36 HP | 85 EN
6/3/2/3/110 (+14% Accuracy)
STATUS: OK

ZhengTann
612.png
KO'ed
478.png
KO'ed
Qkbadu4.png
@ Crucibellite | 61 HP | 82 EN

Frosty
598.png
KO'ed
184.png
KO'ed

Frosty orders
ZhengTann orders
 
I wish I could remember what I was supposed to do now. But if in doubt send in Deoxys!

Switching to Deoxys-D with RageCandyBar
 
Sorry it took me this long, when it's obvious that I have no mons that outright counter Deoxys even ordering first, that can also afford the HP loss from your entry hazards. And with you using the D, at first glance my counterplay includes Super Fang, Thunder Wave, Flash. Yeah that's how bleak I look at it.

Counterswitch offer declined.
 
I would say Gardevoir is a nice switch in. But with those hazards no option is 100% good.

Although, lemme tell you: if you intend to remove those hazards, I suggest you do it asap. Or else the opportunity cost of the flavor action used to do so will not make up for the damage you will cease to take.

[EAT RCB] Psychic - Zen Headbutt - Psychic


No subs intended. What would be your strategy to try to take down Deoxys?
 
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