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The powerhouses return to BSS with regulation G unbanning one box legendary per team! How will the metagame shift and how good are you at predicting it? Find out here in the prediction contest!
How to play:
Post down below your predictions of what you think will be the top 10 Pokemon in the usage stats at the end of Season 14 (ends January 31), the first season of Regulation F!
All Pokemon alternate forms are counted separately in usage stats EXCEPT OGERPON, ZACIAN, AND ZAMAZENTA, where all masks are counted as Ogerpon and crowned dogs are counted as their non-crowned counterpart.
Ex: Urshifu-S and Urshifu-R have separate rankings, but all Ogerpon usage will count towards Ogerpon (and make it higher as a result)
Zacian-Crowned will be counted as Zacian
We don't have confirmation for Dialga/Palkia forms but given it's a held item transformation, it's possible it's the same case as Ogerpon and the dogs.
1- Koraidon
2- Flutter Mane
3 - Ogerpon
4- Chien-Pao
5- Calyrex-S
6- Miraidon
7- Ting-Lu (gonna be huge against both broken ghosts and Miraidon with & without Tera)
8- Zacian
9 - Skeledirge (predict him to be the biggest winner of this restricted format especially with no Arceus formes like in Smogon formats, closest thing to a Koraidon counter)
10- Archaludon / Dragonite / Kyogre / Iron Bundle
I kinda have a tough time seeing Dragonite remaining quite as high in usage as in all of SV, all the top restricteds screw it over big time and Koraidon in particular straight up outclasses it's offensive sets. However, it's still basically our best bet against Ogerpon-Heartflame and Heartflame is kinda set to go crazy with Koraidon support, so maybe that will keep it in top 10 territory? We'll see i guess. Terapagos meanwhile will be a noobtrap and could see more usage than it deserved.
We finally break our "everyone in the community fails to predict the number 1 Pokemon" curse as 6/18 people successfully predicted Flutter Mane to be first. The mon took the first position for 5 seasons in a row so I guess it wasn't too surprising that it would top even in a 1-restricted format.
However, we continue the NOBODY PREDICTED ONE OF THE TOP 10 MONS curse as Landorus-Therian slips through the cracks for everyone's lists. Last time the community severely underestimated steel types when Scizor Gholdengo and Archaludon were in top 10 but amazingly none of the top 10 mons this time were Steel types. The world is shrouded in irony.
While we are on topic of underestimating/overestimating Steel type Pokemon, let's have a look at the FRAUD INDEX.
It is simply the sum of all the (Predicted Rank - Actual Rank).
The higher the number above 0 means the Pokemon was underestimated, while the lower number is a bigger fraud.
If the Pokemon wasn't predicted, the Predicted Rank is 15 (before I used 11 as the value, but increased it because on average it would probably be there)
The most overhyped fraud in this contest was actually a Steel type... Zacian! Following the most underhyped of last contest being the Steel type Scizor, we once again peel another layer of the irony onion from the community contest. 8 people predicted Zacian in the top 10 and it ended up in 23rd, netting all of them the -1 point penalty. TO BE FAIR, the first place team last season used Zacian as their restricted so maybe the community is simply better than everyone else...
Landorus-Therian was the most underestimated mon, to nobody's surprise considering nobody predicted it.
Let's continue on to the community average!
Surprisingly good community average. Zacian turns out to be the only one true big miss from the average. The only real surprise I suppose is that more people put Miraidon than Koraidon in their lists.
They got a stunning 9/10 correct in their prediction, which is an accomplishment that didn't happen since the first prediction contest. Obviously missing the Lando-T for Iron Bundle (which was 13th).
Two other people got 9/10, including Photon (who guessed 12th Archaludon) and Solerme (who guessed 49th Skeledirge). Photon had the closest guess but fell short with only 2 perfects (Flutter Mane, Ogerpon) compared to yone's 3 (Flutter Mane, Dragonite, Ursaluna-BM).
Unfortunately Omastar68 fell back to last place again after managing to escape last time :( Better luck next time!
Atr gets the best differential for the third contest in a row, which is also very impressive!
Thanks to everyone for playing and we'll be back for the next prediction contest!
Kyogre and terapagos were huge disappointments. Im esp. disappointed in ogre, even though terapagos is even lower iirc, cause of its use with tera. I only put flutter lower than you'd think cause of scarf/sash caly s, another blunder, rats. In hindsight, can easily see that not most of the top 10 can be restricted, as it's 1 per team LOL. I guess I had counted on more variety, fat chance in any meta. Ty for having us these are fun! Going forward won't have much idea though, as home won't work for me now idk.
