After watching some dubious argumentation in the PS Lobby, I got wondering about various heuristics in the community. A heuristic is like a shortcut in thinking that gets you to reach some conclusion quickly, faster than if you carefully went through the logic. Like, if you don't know proper manners in some situation, you can just follow what someone else is doing, that'll probably work.
Heuristics are often framed in terms of bias, because skipping over logic might lead you to bad choices, and bad choices are interesting. However, sometimes people can overfocus on the whiffs and get a bit too mean-spirited. Everyone uses heuristics, me included, and it doesn't make you less smart or whatever. Heuristics save mental energy–not everything needs our full focus–and lead us down the right path a lot of the time. Sometimes, they're even a better guide than thoughtful logic. Ever take a test and immediately think "C seems right", think through it hard, second-guess yourself, and switch to A, but C was right? Yeah. This is a "People have interesting thought patterns" post, not "People are such knuckleheads." In the good-spirits nature here, I'm skipping some psychological rigor and precision to focus on funner stuff, but you could surely find parallels in that discipline if you wanted.
Anyway, here are 7 heuristics that have caught my eye in this community. To show how they might lead us astray, I show
paraphrased/implied examples I saw that led to flawed conclusions, and think how we might reach a better one, if we wanted to.
Critical-Value Luck: Events with a chance at or above some probability threshold are much more likely than events below that threshold. (Common values are 51%, 75%, or 90%. This heuristic can apply even if both events are close to the threshold.)
Upside: Simplifications like this make the complex world of Pokemon play easier to navigate. It encourages a riskier or safer approach than a pure numerical approach would, which can help if the situation calls for that shift.
Downside: This heuristic can hurt when its effect on risk preference is poorly matched to a situation. It can also cause frustration by making unlikely random outcomes seem more unreasonable than they are.
"Stone Edge is a low-accuracy move, and Rock Slide is a high-accuracy move. Therefore, Rock Slide is better."
(Versus Rock Slide, Stone Edge's accuracy matters 1 in 10 attempts, on average. How often / much does Rock Slide's downside, lower power, matter?)
Categorization Leaching: If A can broadly be described as X, then every part of A is X.
Upside: You can think of the broad description as a "rule of thumb" here. If a broad description is appropriate for something, you'd expect most subordinate aspects to share the description. It'd be weird to have a bad game where gameplay, music, story, etc. are all good.
Downside: Like most rules of thumb, this one has exceptions. If it provides some initial expectation on a part, you can become overconfident / anchored in an opinion you don't understand that well.
"Spinda is a very bad Pokemon, so every part of it must be bad. The stats, the typing, the ability, the movepool, all of it."
(Isn't it possible for a Pokemon to be bad while having some advantages, just the bad outweighs the good?)
Synchronization: When a strategy combines traits to create new value from their interplay, it is better.
Upside: When you're trying to maximize value, creating new value by combining independently useful parts is important. Understanding this new value is an important part of performance.
Downside: Also important, though, is maximizing the amount of that new value, and the raw value of the base parts too. Focusing just on the presence of synchronicity, and not the magnitude of its effect, can miss the forest for an especially pretty tree.
"Gyarados baits in Electric moves, and Electivire uses Electric moves to buff itself with Motor Drive, so Gyarados + Electivire is a good strategy."
(A +1 Speed Electivire is better than a +0 Speed Electivire, but is either good?)
Exclusivity: When a strategy is requires specific conditions (or is just harder) to execute, it is better.
Upside: Game design has a pattern of making situational / harder strategies more effective, so this heuristic often matches the facts. One likely reason is that "Put more work in, get more value out" is a generally accepted engagement principle.
Downside: Sometimes, game design doesn't follow this pattern, which can create mistakes. Exclusive strategies can be middling, bad, or awful on purpose as a joke.
"Pawmot is the best Pokemon to use Revival Blessing, so Revival Blessing is its best set."
(
If you're going to use Revival Blessing, Pawmot is probably your guy, but is this Pawmot that effective? Is Revival Blessing as a whole that effective?)
Visibility: If something sticks out, it is more important.
Upside: Important things often stick out, so looking for things that stick out can be helpful to find the important ones. Also, unusual things tend to stick out. In game design specifically, unusual things generally require more thought and effort to create, and games rarely spend thought and effort on something that doesn't matter.
Downside: Sometimes things stick out because they are funny, new, or unusual on accident, not because they're important.
"Psychic is accidentally immune to Ghost, instead of weak to it, in RBY. Therefore, Psychic is broken, and RBY is poorly balanced." After all, a mechanic doing the opposite of its intent is unusual, and a good type receiving "extra" help is unusual.
(How much does this immunity matter? How many Pokemon use or would use Ghost moves in RBY? How good are these moves?)
Objectivity: When deciding whether A or B is better, statements that are unquestionably, factually correct are better.
Upside: When trying to build a strong argument, preparing your case for counter-arguments is important. If a statement shuts down counter-arguments that claim the statement is incorrect, that is an advantage.
Downside: Applying facts within arguments often relies on subjective interpretations of the argument's end goal. If A is alphabetically earlier in the alphabet than B, that is a true fact, but we probably agree this fact doesn't make A better. Engaging with some degree of subjectivity is essential for many interesting and worthwhile discussions, and avoiding it entirely can sometimes be unproductive.
"Some people say SV has a good story. That's subjective. The one thing we know for sure is its performance is objectively below-average, so the games are below average."
(How much does performance matter in deciding a game's quality? Because "game quality" itself subjective, isn't it subjective to say that performance matters for deciding it?)
(Suppose we think story is just as important to a game's quality as performance. In this case, isn't it worth forming an opinion on the story's quality, even if this opinion might be wrong?)
Affective Experience: If I had a positive experience with something, it is good. If I had a negative experience, it is bad.
Upside: You have some degree of shared traits and experiences with others. If something was poorly suited for you, it may also be poorly suited for those who share your traits and experiences.
Downside: You have some degree of different traits and experiences from others, so your reaction may not apply to everyone in every context.
"I used Charizard on my OU team and it swept my opponents. Charizard is good."
(What, very precisely, was it good at? Maybe you played low-ladder opponents, and it was good at "sweeping low-ladder opponents". If others want to sweep high-ladder opponents instead, will your success transfer to their experiences?)
Cheers.