NOC C9++ Game Thread

[acidphoenix]

for the record given DMM rolls in the first three slots the chance of reaching DDD (for two full doctors) is 11%

looking back at haruno's iso he basically decided durza was scummy and acted like he had always said durza was scummy(he hadn't) as soon as he claimed doc

 

[Thetwinmasters]

for the record given DMM rolls in the first three slots the chance of reaching DDD (for two full doctors) is 11%

looking back at haruno's iso he basically decided durza was scummy and acted like he had always said durza was scummy(he hadn't) as soon as he claimed doc

This post is just flat out false

 

[acidphoenix]

before doc http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/c9-game-thread.3607528/page-8#post-7404997 http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/c9-game-thread.3607528/page-12#post-7405778

after doc http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/c9-game-thread.3607528/page-13#post-7405808 http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/c9-game-thread.3607528/page-28#post-7408140 http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/c9-game-thread.3607528/page-28#post-7408053


?????

 

[Thetwinmasters]

You are directly misrepresenting the page 13 post and the page 28 posts don't paint a picture of him seriously believing durza is scum because he wants to vote hte bigger counter wagon in bbm

 

[Thetwinmasters]

Also acid how the hell did you get 11% odds

 

[acidphoenix]

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

4 remaining rolls

15% probability of D

need at least 2 successes

it returns 10.951875

 

[Thetwinmasters]

>15%

 

[Thetwinmasters]

I don't even want to discuss why assuming durza is a real doc is a terrible assumption for this calculation

 

[kirsche]

There's only a 10% chance of D?

 

[kirsche]

Real figure is 5~%

 

[Lord Gaius]

Gaius votals because Paper is a lazy fuck

Haruno: (4) Durza, Kirsche, Twin, Champ

Kirsche: (1) Asek

Durza: (1) Haruno

Not Voting: Everyone else

 

[acidphoenix]

oh oops i misread the odds thing when i checked

so 5%

also when the conversation is "one of them is scum because the other counterclaimed" "at least one of them is actual doctor" is not a terribly unreasonable assumption for actually figuring out if the conversation is worth having

the page 13 post is still him moving to durza as scummier after durza claimed

i don't think it proves haruno as doc by any means frankly durza but i was checking to see if his durza reads made some semblance of sense as doctor

Haruno if you're doctor why only go hard after durza now

 

[Thetwinmasters]

I unvoted haruno

 

[Haruno]

Didn't see a point in stopping an inevitable lynch and CC'ing in that situation is retarded

 

[Thetwinmasters]

oh oops i misread the odds thing when i checked

so 5%

also when the conversation is "one of them is scum because the other counterclaimed" "at least one of them is actual doctor" is not a terribly unreasonable assumption for actually figuring out if the conversation is worth having

the page 13 post is still him moving to durza as scummier after durza claimed

i don't think it proves haruno as doc by any means frankly durza but i was checking to see if his durza reads made some semblance of sense as doctor

Haruno if you're doctor why only go hard after durza now

Its like you are just ignoring the actual scummy posts of haruno and the terrible earlio interactions

 

[Thetwinmasters]

Okay lynch haruno than whatever order of acid/kirsche probably wins this game

 

[Thetwinmasters]

Didn't see a point in stopping an inevitable lynch and CC'ing in that situation is retarded

What inevitable lynch? You mean your scum buddy earlio that if you cc'd doc to durza on d1 to save him and durza flips town you two would look insanely scummy.

 

[Thetwinmasters]

Lmao guess village are retarded. Glhf. I expect no one to take responsibility for leading a myslynch and you to not lynch anyone within the next 3 cycles.

This post cements haruno scum in my mind because if he was a real doctor he would actually care about getting lynched

 

[acidphoenix]

fuck no i don't think that proves haruno town by any means which i said IN THE POST YOU QUOTED

frankly i made that post because i didn't remember haruno scumreading durza and checked to see if he actually had or was just saying this now that he was the lynch

 

[Thetwinmasters]

fuck no i don't think that proves haruno town by any means which i said IN THE POST YOU QUOTED

frankly i made that post because i didn't remember haruno scumreading durza and checked to see if he actually had or was just saying this now that he was the lynch

Why do you think haruno stayed on a 4 vote bbm wagon instead of a 2 vote durza wagon even though in his perspective durza is the most likely scum

 

[Thetwinmasters]

The actual correct Votecount
Haruno (4): BBM, Durza, Champ, Kirsche
Durza (1): Haruno
Kirsche (1): Asek

Not Voting (5): Acid, Moody, Shubaka17, Twin, Zorbees

 

[acidphoenix]

/shrug hence i tagged him and asked

 

[Lrr]

pancake subs in for Champ

 

[Thetwinmasters]

Are you scum or town

 

[Thetwinmasters]

#16 Champ-RVS
#80 Fenrir-Bandwagons on fenrir
#128 Durza-Bandwagons on durza
#214 Fenrir-Jumps back to majority wagon in fenrir after durza reacts super emotionally+After Host VC
#367 Durza-Jumps back to majority wagon in durza after fenrir lost all his votes on his wagon+After Host VC
#404 Champ-Goes to champ wagon with 0 votes on champ after being called out for bandwagoning+After Host VC
#493 Durza-Produces some actual reasoning in voting durza and goes back to 2nd biggest wagon besides BBM who he previously town read
#713 Haruno-Last minute distancing

Looking back at all the reasoning for earlio's vote fenrir+champ+durza town makes a lot of sense