CAP 36 - Part 7 - Stat Limits Discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.
About bulk, I think there are a few points which make 36a's bulk unique compared to other mons:

1) We should not be concerned with EV investment into bulk and can go ham with defensive stats without risking dropping CAP song

We have neither healing nor hazard setting/control, the most popular ways of utilising your bulk to consistently provide value across a game or when you need to. Even most mons which use a status spreading strategy like us do so with a backbone of healing themselves up, such as Moltres, Zapdos, Cresceidon or Pecharunt. There are exceptions to this, like Dragapult or Tinkaton, but they have other advantages in a supreme speed tier or arguably the best defensive typing in the game.

Hisuan Goodra, I think, is a more comparable example for our base, with a similarly good but vulnerable typing. Even with its gargantuan SpDef, bolstered by an AV, it still languishes in the lower tiers because it is sort of directionless (term courtesy snake) in what it wants to achieve. Our cleaner forme, however, gives us this direction and thus encourages at the very least very good investment into Speed for it, and SpA in most cases. So even high bulk on base would be what the kids call "fake" nowadays, in that the optimal play is to never to invest heavily in it because we lack models for defensive pokemon being very successful without amazing extra utility/healing or Tank-level offensive stats.

Which leads to...

2) 36a's bulk should be thought of as an expendable allowing us to reach and implement cleaning

Our ideal scenario to be brought in is with a slow-pivot (including a teammate fainting, lol) to something that can't pressure us. Our second best case is to be brought in against one of our designated switch-ins (Gholdengo, Pecharunt, Dragapult). In both cases, we want to be taking neutral or resisted hits, or no damage at all with the slow-pivot as we ourselves force a switch on the opposing side due to the pressure of our Inferno or Ice move. I don't think we are ever trading if we want to preserve enough HP to clean, unless we want to sac and give up on that part of our function entirely (which might be the play in certain scenarios).

Good natural bulk allows us to both come in multiple times into our best-case scenarios while losing an acceptable % of health, as well as actually setup endgame on our switch-ins (or some other mons) even if we have a lower percentage of health remaining.

As an example, if we lose ~15-25% of health to Shadow Ball (and a bit less to Hex), even getting hit twice might be acceptable for us to come in again and set up on these mons or something else as well. This requires an absurd level of bulk (ST was 200-210 in this case) but I do believe that this might be warranted (perhaps with some penalties with Knock or Thunder).

I also think we should bias ourselves towards either physical or special bulk, rather than being above-average bulky on both sides. Mixed mons are rare, and we want to pick and choose what we come in on anyway, so better to dump it all on one side because we don't want to take hits on the other side anyway.

Physical bulk doubles down on the Burn Attack drops from Inferno, while our typing naturally is better against Special mons. I personally prefer special but either is viable.
 
Last edited:
Ok, lied a bit about expanding the above post. Collected a few mons that have historically hit OU, fit well enough within the box we're defining for CAP 36-Aria, and calculated their BSR and other stats using t=3:
NAME HP Atk Def SpA SpD Spe BST PS SS PT ST BSR
Goodra-Hisui 80 100 100 110 150 60 600 85.66 97.97 103.63 148.39 572.88
Heatran 91 90 106 130 106 77 600 88.49 126.91 116.99 117.51 606.78
Dondozo 150 100 115 65 65 35 530 72.15 55.03 171.79 107.37 542.44
Melmetal 135 143 143 80 65 34 600 98.43 63.88 193.94 100.06 620.86
Magearna 80 95 115 130 115 65 600 85.23 117.17 116.93 117.45 583.85
Archaludon 90 105 130 125 65 85 600 107.22 129.71 138.95 78.12 598.68
Tyranitar 100 134 110 95 100 61 600 113.06 88.23 127.58 118.05 596.44
Stakataka 61 131 211 53 101 13 570 85.88 44.65 176.42 91.79 560.94
Suicune 100 75 115 90 115 85 580 80.40 98.62 132.60 133.07 582.95
Deoxys-Defense 50 70 160 70 160 90 600 77.97 82.88 125.37 125.86 542.84
Glastrier 100 145 130 65 110 30 580 97.97 53.65 147.67 128.07 597.84
Great Tusk 115 131 131 53 53 87 570 132.29 66.63 161.85 77.23 632.90
Celesteela 97 101 103 107 101 61 570 87.92 97.31 118.41 116.96 555.02
Slowbro-Mega 95 75 180 130 80 30 590 54.72 93.55 192.07 95.14 592.07
Mew 100 100 100 100 100 100 600 111.62 116.32 117.54 118.05 610.19
There's a lot here, so I'm going to present some summary statistics. The metrics I'm using are the max of sweepiness, the max of tankiness, and the BSR. I'm providing the mean, standard deviation, and a recommendation based on mu + sigma, and then mu+2*sigma.

NAME MS PT ST MT BSR
Goodra-Hisui 97.97 103.63 148.39 148.39 572.88
Heatran 126.91 116.99 117.51 117.51 606.78
Dondozo 72.15 171.79 107.37 171.79 542.44
Melmetal 98.43 193.94 100.06 193.94 620.86
Magearna 117.17 116.93 117.45 117.45 583.85
Archaludon 129.71 138.95 78.12 138.95 598.68
Tyranitar 113.06 127.58 118.05 127.58 596.44
Stakataka 85.88 176.42 91.79 176.42 560.94
Suicune 98.62 132.60 133.07 133.07 582.95
Deoxys-Defense 82.88 125.37 125.86 125.86 542.84
Glastrier 97.97 147.67 128.07 147.67 597.84
Great Tusk 132.29 161.85 77.23 161.85 632.90
Celesteela 97.31 118.41 116.96 118.41 555.02
Slowbro-Mega 93.55 192.07 95.14 192.07 592.07
Mew 116.32 117.54 118.05 118.05 610.19

Mean 104.02 142.78 111.54 145.93 586.44
STDEV 17.87 29.47 19.98 27.26 27.27
1SIGMALIMIT 121.88 172.25 131.52 173.19 613.71
2SIGMALIMIT 139.75 201.72 151.49 200.45 640.98

I should note despite the fact that I do have numbers here, there's still a tremendous amount of subjectivity. The choice of the mons included, the mons that weren't included, even the choice to present means rather than medians or other forms of data. That said, an overall BSR of 615 does feel quite reasonable, and a sweepiness limit of 120 also feels quite reasonable. A max tankiness of 175 (think stakataka) on either side feels fairly reasonable for what we're aiming to do here, though given a BSR limit around 615 this means you're effectively only tanking stuff, and are completely giving up on sweepiness and mixed bulk.

Edit: The formatting for the tables here has me dying and I can't figure out how to fix it, so just posting unformatted text. its ugly but its probably more clear.




===============================================


1747952746694.png


Hey, did a graph of BSR vs the max of PS and SS for a variety of OU and uber mons.
HP Atk Def SpA SpD Spe BST Name PS SS PT ST BSR
88 120 75 100 75 142 600 Dragapult 152.67 136.20 85.84 86.46 612.37
70 90 90 135 90 125 600 Darkrai 121.17 170.39 88.40 89.00 644.68
74 115 70 135 80 106 580 Enamorus 134.52 156.77 73.92 83.05 596.68
115 131 131 53 53 87 570 Great Tusk 128.20 71.38 161.85 77.23 630.32
80 70 60 140 110 110 570 Iron Moth 95.59 165.69 68.16 113.03 638.52
74 130 90 120 60 116 590 Iron Valiant 157.11 151.19 90.94 66.08 618.91
80 120 84 60 96 110 550 Ogerpon 142.89 89.97 89.44 100.65 603.38
99 83 91 125 83 109 590 Walking Wake 106.61 149.69 107.85 100.43 635.14
70 120 65 45 85 125 510 Weavile 151.40 79.66 67.70 84.88 576.49
92 120 115 80 115 138 660 Zamazenta 152.49 115.72 126.34 126.82 703.18
80 116 75 65 75 119 530 Cinderace 144.35 97.95 81.46 82.09 573.92
80 120 80 90 65 135 570 Chien Pao 152.22 125.66 85.89 73.25 586.46
50 150 50 150 50 150 600 Deoxys-N 183.40 187.29 47.27 48.00 621.97
140 85 95 145 95 130 690 Eternatus 116.61 181.22 139.14 139.60 794.74
55 55 55 135 135 135 570 Flutter Mane 86.33 171.30 52.97 112.66 632.23
56 80 114 124 60 136 570 Iron Bundle 111.74 160.24 97.38 57.83 593.89
100 135 115 85 100 135 670 Koraidon 167.42 120.59 132.60 118.05 734.18
89 125 90 115 80 101 600 Landorus-I 140.01 134.94 100.49 91.69 620.08
106 110 90 154 90 130 680 Mewtwo 141.91 190.34 111.31 111.84 747.08
105 139 71 55 101 119 590 Roaring Moon 167.00 88.09 91.02 122.55 687.43
100 103 75 120 75 127 600 Shaymin-Sky 134.67 155.72 92.42 93.01 630.79
100 65 60 145 80 130 580 Spectrier 96.36 181.22 77.35 98.02 667.10

Processed Conclusions (MS = Max Sweepiness, MT = Max Tankiness):

MS BSR MT
Mean 160.26 643.16 103.12
StDev 16.15 57.68 24.09
1Sigma 176.40 700.84 127.21
2Sigma 192.55 758.52 151.30

This heavily mixes ubers and non-uber mons, so the 1 Sigma and 2 Sigma values may not be super appropriate. That said, a Special Sweepiness limit of around 165 or 170 depending on how you view the SS penalties vs BSR penalties may be fine? BSR obviously has a very high standard deviation cause its mixing in Ubers mons which have monsterous overall stats, but a BSR limit somewhere around 650 could be fine? This is a bit higher than Darkrai, who's a great example of a mon riding the limit of OU and uber. This is a bit lower than Roaring Moon, but Roaring Moon may have some of the dumbest stats to ever stay OU for more than a month.

=============================

Recommendations:

Aria (t=3):
PT < 175, ST < 175, SS < 120, BSR < 620

Pirouette (t=1.5):
PT < 105, ST < 105, SS < 170, BSR < 650
 
Last edited:
So generally speaking, it's agreed that post-Song we don't need to shirk our strength. We are not permanently in this forme, there is opportunity cost to transforming, and we completely lose a moveslot after transforming. Strength upside here should be leveraged with stats, and aiming to be roughly a buffed Darkrai seems fair. Conversely, our Aria forme has innate struggles as a defensive Pokemon due to a lackluster typing in this metagame (something that could change and as a result should be considered) and lack of recovery. Using t=3 for Aria and t=1.5 for Pirouette, my (almost formal) BSR and stat limits are the following:

670 BSR limit for Pirouette:
-5 BSR for Thunder, -3 BSR for outspeeding Zamazenta and anything relevant beyond
Speed upper bound of 156 (Jolly Protosynthesis Great Tusk)
SS ~175

640 BSR limit for Aria:
-5 BSR for each of Thunder and Knock Off
Speed upper bound of 111 (Jolly Ogerpon-W)
SS ~120

We'll have a final 24 hours of discussion before these are finalized and stat submissions can begin!
 
Last edited:
-5 BSR for Thunder, -3 BSR for outspeeding Zamazenta and anything relevant beyond
Speed upper bound of 156 (Jolly Protosynthesis Great Tusk)

For clarity, is this -3 BSR for >138, or -3 BSR for each mon we outspeed past 138?

If it is the latter, what are we counting as relevant beyond this point? I am assuming >142 will have a penalty for Dragapult, and maybe 156 for +1 Tusk, but are we considering other things in this range, eg. +1 Ghold, +1 Dragonite, etc?
 
For clarity, is this -3 BSR for >138, or -3 BSR for each mon we outspeed past 138?

If it is the latter, what are we counting as relevant beyond this point? I am assuming >142 will have a penalty for Dragapult, and maybe 156 for +1 Tusk, but are we considering other things in this range, eg. +1 Ghold, +1 Dragonite, etc?
the latter, and "relevant" is at the moment being used to mean Dragapult, +1 Jolly Tusk, Scarf Ghold. can talk w/ tlt team more to discuss if this needs to be listed out in its entirety or not
 
Alright, since there's been no further discussion, we're going to move forward with the BSR limits I laid out:

640 BSR limit for Aria:
-5 BSR for each of Thunder and Knock Off
Speed upper bound of 111 (Jolly Ogerpon-W)
SS ~120

670 BSR limit for Pirouette:
-5 BSR for Thunder, -3 BSR for outspeeding Zamazenta and anything relevant beyond
Speed upper bound of 156 (Jolly Protosynthesis Great Tusk)
SS ~175

To put the speed penalties into perspective, here's a table with base Speed stats and their corresponding BSR penalties:

138 and below139 (outrun Zama)143 (outrun Dragapult)151 (outrun Scarf Ghold)156 (outrun Jolly +1 Tusk)
-0 BSR-3 total BSR-6 total BSR-9 total BSR-12 total BSR

So, if you want to outrun Great Tusk, it'll be -12 BSR. It is not cumulative.

SHSP for confirmation this is good before moving onto our next stage!
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top