Thinking about
1) For Corrosion, is leaning towards 2-attack sets versus 3-attack sets too much of a risk with Toxic?
There has been a lot of discussion about this and the discord server that I've often been left confused by. If we seperate out the sets (assuming Toxic corrosion)
[Defensive | Toxic + Recover + 2] I'm assuming it is safe to assume we will get some type of coverage for Steels and think that this is fine if it is Fire-type coverage. I'm also assuming that CAP 38's EV spread on a defensive set will be high or max speed with most of the rest of the EVs going into bulk and maybe some minor offensive investment if the stats leave it close to a valuable threshold. In those last two slots CAP 38 wants:
1. Sludge Bomb (or physical STAB) to immediately threaten quite a lot of stuff. Fairy-types of such as Hemogoblin and Clefable feel like they'd be a massive headache without it. Ogerpon-Wellspring is another Pokémon that comes to mind where CAP 38 has an amazing on paper matchup into it, will likely outspeed it, but would appreciate Sludge Bomb for it as well as some other stuff in addition to Toxic. It'd also be good for Kyurem. Eternatus often runs Toxic + Toxic Spikes in NDUbers and Toxic + Sludge Bomb would function similarily in CAP.
2. Grass STAB. It hits a lot of important stuff even if it has its issues and Toxic definitely does alleviate some of those.
3. The Steel-type coverage. It may be poll jumping, but Fire is what I've had on my mind since there are a few different options compared to the alternatives (i.e. Etern gets Mystical Fire, Flamethrower, and Fire Blast even if Mystical Fire is quite rare). This coverage is useful, but CAP 38 likely won't be 2HKOing bulky Steels nor OHKOing offensive ones unless they're super frail.
4. Some move that it happens to get once the movepool is determined that has some niche use.
So all in all, I'd expect Toxic to at least be a staple on defensive sets, but maybe not universal. Running Toxic means that CAP 38 is going to have some very common gaps and give up at least one positive matchup to fit it. This is also ignoring that there are a lot of top tier Pokémon that do not care about Toxic regardless due to their abilities. i.e.
). I'm probably forgetting something as well.
Corrosion Toxic is also what would allow CAP 38 to actually translate defensive Eternatus sets. The Toxic resiliance of the CAP metagame was brought up as an initial concern with Eternatus and is a fair point. Corrosion addresses that in a fair way as there are still a fair amount of Pokémon that don't care about corrosion Toxic while letting CAP 38 do the whole Toxic + Recover thing to sacrifice itself to deal with some common offensive threats. I'd imagine that this could be useful against Pokémon such as Kingbambit, Iron Moth, and Dragonite.
At the end of the day, defensive CAP 38 sets running Toxic are still going to have a lot of holes despite Corrosion closing a lot of them. It can't and shouldn't cover anything and defensive Eternatus doesn't try to either. Sure Eternatus has Fire coverage, but it also isn't immediately threatening the Steel-types minus Ferrothorn (i.e. Flamethrower requires investment to 2HKO Zacian-C and surprisingly doesn't OHKO Ferrothorn). CAP 38 will still have coverage issues, 4MSS, and difficulty with most Pokémon that can absorb a Toxic if it doesn't threaten them with its STABs since they'll be able to tank a SE coverage move if the game state makes it worthwhile. There are enough Pokémon that 'counter' this set, Toxic still does come at a cost, and it is often sacrificing itself to handle powerful wallbreakers instead of countering them.
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Recover + 3A] This seems to be the Eternatus set that has received the most discussion and full disclosure, I think this set is hella overrated in NDUbers even it is decentish. At least with Eternatus, the main thing I dislike about this set is how damn quickly Life Orb transforms Eternatus into a bulkyish Pokémon for an offensive one (it isn't really 'bulky' without investment) into average to surpringsly frail due to how quickly even neutral powerful attacks can threaten to knock it out. The big thing is that Eternatus has 'perfect' coverage that CAP 38 is never going to have with Corrosion which makes including Toxic a choice with significant tradeoffs. Recover + Toxic + the coverage move + a STAB is going to have pretty signficant holes that an all purpose wallbreaker would like to avoid outside of specific team compositions.
For example, AV Glowking was brought up in the discord as a wall, and that is a Pokémon you'd much rather apply regular poison than Toxic to as it is far easier for CAP 38 and a teammate to make progress against shared counterplay this way. The same applies to Pecharunt to a lesser extent. You're also going to want Sludge Bomb for a lot of those midspeed Pokémon that CAP 38 offensively threatens, but Energy Ball hits some important targets as well. While there are definitely reasons this set would really appreciate Corrosion Toxic, the opportunity cost is high enough heavily limit its use. The 'hits nearly everything' with three moves thing crumbles quickly when one of those moves is replaced.
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Leaf Storm + Energy Ball + Sludge Bomb + Coverage] This is a set where Corrosion Toxic can realistically see some use (second slash on an analysis level). It does still come at a cost, likely replacing Leaf Storm, but you're giving up your nuke option and this set is likely to be on the rare end anyways due to how punishing the Choice lock is. This set has become commonish in NDUbers, but requires heavy team support due to significant issues with extreme archetypes and I don't see why CAP would be any different. I don't know what CAP stall looks like, but Chansey / Blissey is still going to wall this to the end of time while I'd assume there is some other stall staple that will prevent CAP 38 from just clicking buttons. On the offensive side, there is likely going to be some Pokémon on HO that punishes CAP 38 regardless of what move it locks into. There will be teams out there where that find it worthwhile for CAP 38 to Toxic some switchin, but those are unlikely to be common.
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Meteor Beam sets] I'm not sure if it is polljumping, but I'm assuming Meteor Beam is going to be our boosting option due to the issues with alternatives. Eternatus does have a Meteor Beam + Recover set, often dropping Sludge Bomb, but fitting both Toxic + Recover is...yeah. I can see the potential for Toxic to replace a move on 4A sets. When Eternatus runs this set is mostly on HO and I can see the same applying to CAP 38. Maybe there is some roadblock that HO teams really would appreciate being Toxiced, but I see it being niche at best.
To get back to the original question...I see Corrosion as an ability that goes a long way towards alleviating the issues defensive sets are likely to run into while remaining a niche, but not powerful option on offensive ones. Toxic on offensive sets with significant considerations in the teambuilder due to the opportunity cost while still having some on defensive sets. Even then, the ability to get a proc on bulky poisons is still quite nice for offensive sets.
2) Is Flower Veil doing too much compared to Limber?
This is a weird one because I don't see the point of Flower Veil unless we are committing to going in a physical direction and I really do not like the idea of CAP 38 being physical for a myriad of reasons. However, if it is physical then it definitely needs Burn immunity imo. I see the appeal, but am not a fan of Limber as paralysis should be a tool against a fast tank and am not a fan of a paralysis immunity period unless it is something like Shield Dust protecting CAP 38 from Nuzzle. If CAP 38 ends up being phsyical than probably not, although if that is the direction we go I'd much perfer an ability that solely provides a burn imminuty and leaves paralysis as a solid option for counterplay to CAP 38.
) Is Seed Sower's strength on passive sets mitigating its low value floor against certain matchups?
As mentioned above and on discord, I am not a fan of Seed Sower. If Grassy Terrain is too powerful then it is too powerful, but if that is the case another direction is better. It seems like a nightmare to balance (how do we factor in plain v terrain boosted damage thresholds to future stages?). I don't like the variance associated with this ability.
4) Is neutral coverage for third STAB / specific move boosting enough?
I am not a fan of 'solid' neutral coverage since it likely needs to be tied to some damage amp ability to be worthwhile. It hamstrings defensive sets a lot as uninvested coverage isn't deleting Pokémon that resist the STABs even if they are weak to it. Additionally, most of the suggestions I've seen with the 'widespread neutral coverage' seem to be some damage amp ability that forces CAP 38 to be physical or are Sheer Force which is a nightmare to balance. For what it is worth, I also think Tinted Lens would be a nightmare to balance, but would rather try that than many of the suggestions. Being walled by Poison- and Steel-types with a coverage option for them is preferable to me.
Thoughts on abilities
Top shit
Corrosion - My #1 choice. I wouldn't bother making a post like this if I wasn't a fan. It covers some of the offensive gaps that defensive sets will inevitably have while leaving space for offensive sets to achieve their goals. It makes CAP 38 actually feel like mini Eternatus in a way that most abilities don't. Additionally, the powerful ability that bypasses type based counterplay, but thuds into ability based counterplay aspect is pretty neat.
Neutralizing Gas - Maybe it is too powerful, but I'll leave that one to the experts. I hope it isn't because it is pretty cool for similar reasons to Corrosion, but targets a different subset of checks due to addressing ability based counterplay instead of type based with the exception of Magic Guard. However, I can see some issues with it being a tad too powerful on offensive sets.
Would like to see it on the poll
Thick Fat - This would very likely make CAP 38 a buffed Mega Venusaur which I don't think is against the rules, but can easily see the community not liking. Thick Fat is enough of a defensive buff that defensive sets having some more serious flaws that would naturally be remedied by an ability seems like a fair tradeoff and can be remedied in other stages if it is too extreme so long as those buffs are difficult for the offensive set to utilize. My main concern with Thick Fat is that it benefits offensive sets to the point where set diversity is impacted in an anti-concept manner.
Shield Dust - I'm not sure why, but Shield Dust just kind of hits the right vibe. Eternatus is like...smack it hard and it'll go down, but if you want to do it passively you'll have to work for it and Shield Dust does that in a way that benefits both offensive and defensive sets. There are a bigger more obvious benefits as well as stuff like switching into Moonblast without the SpA drop allowing something to setup on CAP 38.
Neutral to whatever
Mold Breaker - I'm very ehh on it, especially if the main motivator is to smack Equilibria with Ground-type moves. I'm very hesitant about Ground-type coverage in general as I think it provides a bit too much compression. That being said,
Flower Veil - I'd put this in no thanks, but it is the type of ability I'd like to see if CAP 38 is going to go in a physical direction. As mentioned, I really don't like the idea of physical CAP 38. However, burn immunity + some utility that isn't assumed is about the only way I would.
Lingering Aroma / Wandering Spirit - A neat option that I don't think has any chance of winning. I'm not completely sure why I like this suggestion as much as I do, but the vibes just feel kind of right.
No thanks
Limber - As mentioned multiple times, CAP 38 should be vulnerable to Paralysis. Partial immunity such as Shield Dust protecting from Nuzzle, but CAP 38 is heavily reliant on its speed and already immune to Toxic. Paralazying it and allowing the midrange to slightly fast Pokémon that would otherwise threaten it is an aspect of Eternatus I'd like to preserve.
Tinted Lens - Mostly for balance reasons. I don't know if there is a 'Tinted Lens' CAP, but using Tinted Lens as a means to allow defensive sets to do the damage while not making offensive sets too strong feels like a bit of a nightmare. Tinted Lens is cool, but feels like it is way more trouble than it is worth to get right while requiring something close to an overhaul if we can't. I know it is a banned ability, but if we are going to go in this direction then Neuroforce is cooler and easier to balance.
Seed Sower - Too weak and conditional imo. When I think about the whole 'switch in and get a buff' aspect...Wandering Spirit is just cooler and seems like a better option that would have benefits regardless of the set.
Third STAB / specific move-boost abilties - These feel like they'd run into similar issues to Tinted Lens. In order to make the damage of the intended target respectable enough with defensive sets would likely make offensive sets too powerful. If CAP 38 gets Meteor Beam then it carries some aspect of this anyways in a fair way.
Levitate - Functional entry hazard immunity is too strong imo. Heavy-Duty Boots exist if you want that and come with a drawback. I think it is banned, but if this was Earth Eater then I'd probably want to see it. The whole Tera Fire while Ground immune is an interesting thing with that while still being vulnerable to entry hazards. CAP 38 is going to be bulky, fast, and have recovery. Getting worn down by Stealth Rocks, Spikes, and vulnerability to Sticky Web.
Throwing it out there
Water Bubble / Veil - Yeah Water Bubble is banned, but if it doesn't have a way to actually make use of it offensively then getting a fire neutrality is nice over veil and the big thing is the Burn immunity if CAP 38 goes physical.
Screen Cleaner - No clue if screens are super relevant in CAP, but it does sort of replicate the whole Toxic / Toxic Spikes metagame dynamic Eternatus has going on in Ubers.
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Weezing-G's roles are hazard removal and status-spreading. This is made more reliable by its access to Neutralizing Gas, allowing it to threaten Garganacl, Gholdengo, and Clefable with status, and most importantly, Defog without fear of being blocked by Gholdengo. What it does is decided by its movepool, stats, and typing; Neutralizing Gas basically provides the x-factor to make it work in OU.
Miasmaw's primary role is as a SD + Scale Shot sweeper. Neutralizing Gas allows it to bypass various ability-related counterplay to its gameplan, like Equilibra's Levitate, Cresceidon's Multiscale, and Unaware; as well as shut down revenge-killing attempts from +Spe Paradox Pokemon and Hemogoblin / Revenankh. This should make it clear that Miasmaw's role is bolstered by Neutralizing Gas, not defined by it; while it carves out its niche due to its unique interactions with certain Pokemon among its competition, what it does is fundamentally driven by it's movepool, stats, and typing.
