Diversity, Moves, Movesets, EVs, Natures and Teammates Feb 2009 stats (sick X-Act)

Thanks a lot for posting these resources, X-Act. I hope you get better!

Additional Edit:

I find the Suspect stats to be a bit interesting, although they were highly predictable. It will be difficult to make an unbiased vote on the Suspect voting since Scizor, being the #2 used Pokémon on the ladder, with Pursuit being in its moveset almost all of the time, prevents Latios from sweeping through a little team with little to no difficulty. Of course, this is simply my view at the moment, since I have enough experience on the Suspect ladder to know this is the truth.


np: Biffy Clyro - Shock Shock
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Well, the other method of doing it is this:

11.22% chance of Stealth Rock being on a pokemon's moveset

6 Pokemon a team

67.32% of teams having stealth rock

I'll admit that later number sounds much better than the first number, expecially since (I think) that latter number counts for each team only having it once.
Actually, the first way you calculated it is the correct way.

In general, suppose a move has probability p of being in a moveset. Then the probability of it not being in a moveset is 1-p. The probability that 6 movesets don't have the move is thus (1-p)^6. And hence the probability that the move is in at least 1 out of the 6 movesets (i.e. in 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 of the 6 movesets) is 1 - (1-p)^6; this corresponds exactly with your first method.

If you, however, want the probability that exactly one out of the six movesets has the move, the probability would be 6p(1-p)^5. This is always smaller than the previous calculation because the other one includes also the cases when 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 of the movesets have the move.

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