Welcome to Smogon! Take a moment to read the Introduction to Smogon for a run-down on everything Smogon, and make sure you take some time to read the global rules.
The deadline is Sunday, March 14th, at 11:59 PM Eastern time.
A few quick notes/reminders:
Follow Smogon's Tournament rules (no ghosting, no leaking teams/sets in chat, etc)
All matches are Best of 1
All replays must be posted - the same policy regarding replays used in Seasonals will be used here. All matches without a replay will be treated as a double game loss.
I will grant activity wins or extensions if I have to, but only as a last resort. Do your best to get your games done on time!
Substitutions are allowed, but be sure to let the host, opposing player, and opposing manager know ASAP if one needs to happen. If both managers agree to switching matchups around in the same tier to accommodate timezone issues that is fine, but send me a PM on Smogon including both managers so that I know it's legit.
If any of the rosters are incorrect, PM me on discord asap and I will edit.
The link for Week 4 predictions is here. Predictions will be open for approximately 72 hours from this post have now closed. Week 3 is still in progress so the results and weekly recap will come alongside the Week 4 prediction breakdown.
Spikemuth Spectral Thieves vs. Galar Ghosters (1-5)
SS DOU: Toxigen vs Zigh – Was generally very impressed w toxigen’s performance last week in SS against Para. They played better and was in a much better position the entirety of the game but had some bad luck and a couple misplays that led to a loss.
SS DOU: EternalSnowman vs Grandmas Cookin – Gma is playing v well
SS DUU: Human vs The_Bandit – the bandit the goat. Has clearly been spending time in the builder in this tier which is exponentionally more important in a tier that is not very developed. Expect more of the same this week.
SM DOU: Yellow Paint vs emforbes – Clearly the favorite and am not going to predict otherwise.
XY DOU: GenOne vs Z Strats -GenOne is coming off a nice win vs Memoric w the aid of rock slide and a really nice matchup. However, I still expect Z strats to convert this.
BW DOU: Frania vs MetalGro$$ - Feels like a coinflip, MetalGro$$ has money signs in his username.
Hau'oli Haxers vs. Santalune Storms (5-1)
SS DOU: Sakura☆ vs Shadowmonstr7 – Shadow is 3-0 but I’m a sucker for 3k vgc’ers
SS DOU: YoBuddy vs zeefable – Feel weird here. YoBuddy didn’t play great the first two weeks and didn’t get to play last week as a result. Zee has played well and should be 3-0 but had two completely winning positions that ended up as losses. Going with the baker
SS DUU: Nido-Rus vs AtmosphereVGC – Love atmosphere. In a normal world this person would be 3-0 in duu and they played extrememly well vs SMB but bc SMB brought some absolute heat they got reverse 6-0’d. Expect them to keep playing well
SM DOU: Yoda2798 vs stax – Yoda sooogood sm
XY DOU: Mishimono vs qsns – Going with mishii. Qsns feels like the objective favorite, but have a gut feeling mishii does something cool
BW DOU: Biosci vs DaWoblefet – Has been the best bw player in the spreadsheet and from the eye test
SS DOU: Sakura☆ vs Shadowmonstr7
SS DOU: YoBuddy vs zeefable
SS DUU: Nido-Rus vs AtmosphereVGC
SM DOU: Yoda2798 vs stax
XY DOU: Mishimono vs qsns
BW DOU: Biosci vs DaWoblefet
SS DOU: Toxigen vs Zigh
- bolding Zigh takes balls that i do not have
SS DOU: EternalSnowman vs Grandmas Cookin
- matt's 2-0 in ss and overall just popping off. happy to see my boy tear it up.
SS DUU: Human vs The_Bandit
- I wanna bold enosh but actuarily has been on a roll after their week 1 loss.
SM DOU: Yellow Paint vs emforbes
- bro's definitely had a rough run of it but I still think he can pull off this week and finish positive. Sorry to YP, feels like I end up bolding against you every round. Nothing personal king.
XY DOU: GenOne vs Z Strats
- your guess is basically as good as mine tbf I know very little about xy but I believe Z Strats will be looking for vengeance after being prevented from playing 1 hour before deadline.
BW DOU: Frania vs MetalGro$$
- ☆frania ♔:nah I'm just great there's so much BDE in this post that I can't help but pull for fran. Go OFF boss
ghosters win 4-2
SS DOU: shrop vs emma
- im like 0-48 against emma lifetime so this was hard but I think shrop's performance against qwello was really strong. emma's been doing well in ssnl but has been on the bench so far here which I think also works in shrop's favor.
SS DOU: Paraplegic vs TonyFlygon
- While I had a ton of respect for them due to their singles brand, I knew very little of Tony's doubles prowess before our game but after watching our replay like 10 times I think the guy's pretty damn good and is easily capable of former competent gameplans and endgames. That being said, Para is really good too (one might even say the better player) so what gives? I think Para is either going to get complacent in his prep or the game. Prove me wrong if you disagree.
SS DUU: kaori vs SMB
- SMB beat me with toxapex in some discord tour this week.
SM DOU: Spurrific vs Yuichi
- Burns is just the better pokemon player. Yuichi might be 2-0 but that luck is about to run out.
XY DOU: papiloco vs JRL
- The XY Pool can be divided into two groups: qsns and JRL and everyone else. If my math is correct, JRL fits the former. Papiloco does not.
BW DOU: Memoric vs Mizuhime
-??????????? why is memo in BW lol. Mizu's 0-3 so I guess I'll bold him but I'm really confused.
EDIT: I've been informed memoric is in fact a bw dou player.
tie
SS DOU: Toxigen vs Zigh : I have not seen much of Toxigen's game but I know he is a player who has had a good ability to read the game and sincerely I give as a candidate in this Match up seeing that zigh has given surprise with 2 very good games, while Toxigen comes from a defeat in Oras that does not detract from his game, I hope to see a great game.
SS DOU: EternalSnowman vs Grandmas Cooking: after his first loss in the first week against Stax Grandmas he has been turning around his scoreboard seeing that eternalsnowman has had only one loss in his only game he has had and seeing that he has not been in his original place he will have to prove that my selection of Grandmas is wrong, Being a supporter of Auraray's team I hope eternal wins but the statistics point to Grandmas.
SS DUU: Human vs the_bandit: I can not go against Actuarily who is a fixed card in DUU, while human can not get a fixed position in his slot should surprise against a bulky Actuarily game where he has shown it in the first change in this Tier.
SM DOU: Yellow Paint vs emforbes: this will be an attractive game where we will see a Fosil as Yellow Paint against the best player in SM for me, Yellow sticks a lot to the Core synergy that will give him more defensive answers and the long offensive against emforbes who is one of the builders that can make a surprise team that could give him an advantage, I hope to see live this Match.
XY DOU: GenOne vs Z Strats : we see me going for gen one only because I don't see Z strats in Oras, it doesn't give me the feeling of a good Match and I hope I'm wrong.
BW DOU: Frania vs MetalGro$$: this is simple Frania > all
Hau'oli Haxers vs. Santalune Storms
SS DOU: Sakura☆ vs Shadowmonstr7: Honestly Shadowmonster has been very superior, he comes from having great momentum after the victory against Qwello and I feel that sakura will not be able to give great impression to it, his victories in the Word Cup DOU were something that called much attention, but the bet goes very safe for Shadowmonster7 who is having a good season.
SS DOU: YoBuddy vs zeefable: in this situation that Zeefable obtains I don't see him material to face yobuddy when his quality in terms of Evs are superior and more if it is about making plays in high caliber games however I can't underestimate zeefable since if he was chosen in this dpl for something it will be and that is one of the reasons to be aware of his performance.
SS DUU: Nido-Rus vs AtmosphereVGC: this is one of my two Toughest Bets I will make as nido rus is a good builder and has been known over the years as a consistently good player, amotspherevgc has developed very well and I look forward to watching this match up to see a lot more beyond this prediction.
SM DOU: Yoda2798 vs stax : the second risky bet will be this one, I can't go against my best friend from smogon Doubles, Stax is someone who is always hard to beat but Yoda with the experience acquired can give the definitive blow for his team "YoSquad", SM is an advantage for him and I feel he can increase the probabilities of having a good match.
XY DOU: Mishimono vs qsns : both are excellent players in oras, but I lean to mishiimono simply because he is in yoda's team (not only for that, but Mishiimono has won a circuit in Oras). Qsns is a key player in his team and if he hesitates in front of mishiimono, it can cost him a lot of money.
BW DOU: Biosci vs DaWoblefet : How not to bet on dawobo in BW?
Twinleaf Mutant Ninja Squirtles vs. Hoenn Heroes
SS DOU: shrop vs emma : Shrop after his return to the stage has been able to consolidate as one of the players of the year for my taste, Emma has also had prominence but against a shrop also unstoppable there is nothing to do but to prove me wrong.
SS DOU: Paraplegic vs TonyFlygon :Who is tonyflygon? paraplegic should win this for sure.
SS DUU: kaori vs SMB: An old player before a Crack in the buid, Another one of my winning cards called SMB which is untreatable in DOU as well as actuarily, but Kaori has Exp and that helps her a lot when it comes to planting the read of the Game.
SM DOU: Spurrific vs Yuichi: I know little about spurrific but his game has shown me that he can be a great threat and against yuichi who has not been able to show what a great player he really is, the scales are tipped against him.
XY DOU: papiloco vs JRL: Dos de mis mejores jugadores hispano-hablantes , ellos son grandes jugadores y los he visto crecer muy rapido, pero en XY JRL es muy Superior puesto que a su ultimo DPL Jose a demostrado ser un bestia tras ganar la Final ante memoric ( el Rey de XY) y ahora me encataria ver este match up.
(Two of my best players Spanish-speaking , they are great players and I have seen them grow very fast, but in XY JRL is very Superior since in his last DPL Jose proved to be a beast after winning the Final against memoric (the King of XY) and now I would love to see this match up.)
BW DOU: Memoric vs Mizuhime : I like to see Memoric's version in BW but I think mizuhime performs much better than Memoric, although this selection is very close.
PD: if you see an error, please let me know and I hate the DPL thx
SS DOU: Sakura☆ vs Shadowmonstr7
Shadow has been playing pretty well so ill bold them, also because idk much about sakura apart from wcop.
SS DOU: YoBuddy vs zeefable
zee is solid and much more in form than yobuddy at the moment
SS DUU: Nido-Rus vs AtmosphereVGC
Tough matchup here between 2 good players. I should probably favour atmosphere for theyr good performances but i think nido can pull this off and succeed where demantoid could not.
SM DOU: Yoda2798 vs stax
Highlight of the week ofc. Yoda has shown to be on of the best players in the tier so far this tournament, but i can see stax winning after not doing so for 2 consecutive games. Plus its stax, they can always win any game on any given day.
XY DOU: Mishimono vs qsns
bolding mishi cuz i lost to qsns. Jk lol qsns is playing amazing but i trust mishi to upset, hes not been bad either and has the ability to win against probably the best xy player at the moment
BW DOU: Biosci vs DaWoblefet
again, i should probably bold biosci solely based on the record so far, but my gut tells me to bold dawob and i will do so.
SS DOU: shrop vs emma
I like the seasonal run emma is having and she will make it difficult for shrop but i think the latter will ultimately take the win.
SS DOU: Paraplegic vs TonyFlygon
This is going to be decently close but para is a more experienced player than tony and will win. Though i will say that ive been very impressed by tony's playing.
SS DUU: kaori vs SMB
Two good players but smb is smb
SM DOU: Spurrific vs Yuichi
Good player yuichi but i cant see an upset here
XY DOU: papiloco vs JRL
dont know anything about papiloco in xy but i know that jrl is good so yeah
BW DOU: Memoric vs Mizuhime
Rough dpl for Mizu, going with memo
Week 4 Predictions are now closed and the results from Week 3 have been tallied. The top 5 are as follows:
Lunar: 465 points
Shadowmonstr7: 420 points
Memoric: 415 points
Emma: 405 points
MetalGro$$: 400 points
2019 winner Lunar has overtaken Shadowmonstr7 for first place. Memoric has swapped places with MetalGro$$ and Emma replaces Mizuhime in the top 5. The Ape had a poor week, dropping from 7th to 13th with a score of 90. Mass Opinion remains 11th after scoring 115 points. The full leaderboard can be found here.
Week 3 Predicts recap:
All games counted for predictions points. Shrop and Qwello technically played before the form closed but no predictions were made after their game so it will still count for predictions points.
The highest score for Week 3 was 145 points, scored by Lunar, Yoda2798 and Biosci.
Level 51 submitted his first prediction of the year, incorrectly predicting Eisenherz to win and leaving all other responses blank.
DaWoblefet posted his second prediction, once again predicting Yoda2798 to lose. This time he was incorrect.
Only 1 user did not predict their team's games.
8 users, including Z Strats, correctly predicted that Z Strats would play one hour before the deadline.
14 users correctly predicted that there would be less than 5 pokemon fully paralysed in the match between DaWoblefet and Mizuhime. Mizuhime predicted incorrectly.
Dnagerbadger did not post in the meme thread (nor did anyone else for that matter). Only 3 users, kamikazee, London13 and Grandmas Cookin predicted that Dnagerbadger would be responsible for less than 25% of the posts.
The biggest upset was GenOne vs Memoric (2-24). Toxigen, Tenzai and the Ape correctly predicted this game. Zeefable vs TonyFlygon (23-2) and Stax vs Yuichi (23-2) were also big upsets.
Week 4 prediction breakdown, favourites in bold.
Spectral Thieves: 2 / Ghosters: 25 / Tie: 1
Toxigen: 18 / Zigh: 8
EternalSnowman: 1 / Grandmas Cookin: 26
Human: 8 / The_Bandit: 19
Yellow Paint: 2 / Emforbes: 25
GenOne: 2 / Z Strats: 25
Frania: 22 / MetalGro$$: 6
Haxers: 9 / Storms: 15 / Tie: 3
Sakura: 11 / Shadowmonstr7: 16
YoBuddy: 10 / Zeefable: 17
Nido-Rus: 11 / AtmosphereVGC: 16
Yoda2798: 16 / Stax: 11
Mishimono: 12 / Qsns: 15
Biosci: 11 / DaWoblefet: 16
Squirtles: 19 / Heroes: 5 / Tie: 2
Shrop: 24 / Emma: 3
Paraplegic: 19 / TonyFlygon: 8
Kaori: 5 / SMB: 22
Spurrific: 23 / Yuichi: 4
Papiloco: 7 / JRL: 20
Memoric: 25 / Mizuhime: 2
Bonus: Will the Ape score more points than Mass Opinion in DPL Week 4?
Yes: 12
No: 11
Tie: 2
Bonus: How many players will neglect to say 'gg' or similar at the end of their game?
The most popular response was '4' with 5 votes. Other responses included:
Too many :(
5 1/2 I will say g and forget to add a second g
the random number generator says 44
0 because everyone should say gg :D
Memoric
between 0 and 36
Total votes: 28
Most one-sided vote: EternalSnowman vs Grandmas Cookin (1-26)
Closest vote: Mishimono vs Qsns (12-15)
With the help of a python script I made, I have crunched the numbers on each team's current playoff chances. Each team is posted in current order of rankings, and notably no team is completely guaranteed in or out yet!!! Reminder that tiebreak is win differential first then head-to-head, although here I'm just considering points mainly.
Here's an example of what a single output looks like. The first line is the list of teams making playoffs (or at least, can if they win a tiebreak), the second line is the particular results of each match from the simulation. The third line is the final standings, in a list of form [team_name, num_points, num_wins]. For example, Heroes have 7 points and 17 wins here. Note that these win counts (i.e. differentials) aren't completely accurate! They represent minimum values for these match results, and could be higher depending on exact scores. Basically, just ignore them. Anyways, with these results, all 6 teams are in contention for playoffs! At least by points, there's a 4-way tie for third.
This is a rudimentary script I threw together and is definitely not the cleanest, prettiest, or most thorough. Each match is a branch between Team A winning, a tie, or Team B winning. The program branches out each combination of results to obtain the final sheet and from that playoff teams. As there's 6 matches remaining, there is 3^6 different possibilities, obviously not all equally likely. To better interpret the results, I have a conditional to only display cases with certain conditions, e.g. Team X makes playoffs, Team X has Y wins, that I changed to analyse a particular scenario. There is a basic implementation of differential, with the number of wins for each team (which once everything's been played is all that matters), and teams receiving the minimum number of wins for each result. For a tie 3 is required by nature, a win requires 4, but a loss has a minimum of 0 wins, even though that's far from typically the case. I didn't simulate all the exact possibilities of 4-2, 5-1, etc. because with two weeks to go that's a lot of possibilities. Eyeballing the differentials, they never seemed different enough to discount either team winning a tiebreak, although there's probably some cases where that's wrong. There's definitely better ways to analyse the results than the basic sort of brute force approach I've used here but this is all I've done so far and it worked well enough. If you're wondering about the deepcopy stuff, that's so different branches don't intermingle by using the same variables, I was getting some outputs with 3 or 9 matches played beforehand.
Python:
import functools
import operator
import copy
# get qualifying teams from a final sheet
def getWinners(sheet):
no_qualify = 3
winners = [team[0] for team in sheet[:3]]
cutoff = sheet[2][1]
for team in sheet[3:]:
if team[1] > cutoff:
print("UH OH ERROR WRONG ORDER AFTER SORTING BY POINTS")
elif team[1] == cutoff:
winners.append(team[0])
else:
break
return winners
# print result of a single simulation
def outputResult(sheet, results):
sheet2 = [ [key, val[0], val[1]] for key, val in sheet.items()]
sheet2.sort(key = operator.itemgetter(1, 2), reverse=True)
#print(sheet2)
winners = getWinners(sheet2)
#print(winners)
#print(len(results))
#print(results)
# put conditions here to show under, e.g. a certain team being in/out
if "haxers" in winners and sheet["haxers"][0] ==5: #and sheet2[3][1]==6:
print(winners)
print(results)
print(sheet2)
print()
def simulatePossibilities(sheet, matchups, results=[]):
# output result if no more matches to simulate
if len(matchups) == 0:
outputResult(sheet, results)
return
#sheet = copy.deepcopy(sheet)
matchups = copy.deepcopy(matchups)
#results = copy.deepcopy(results)
# get matchup
team1, team2 = matchups.pop(0)
#print(team1, team2, matchups)
#input()
# for each result
for result in [team1, team2, "tie"]:
# make copies
sheet2 = copy.deepcopy(sheet)
matchups2 = copy.deepcopy(matchups)
results2 = copy.deepcopy(results)
if result == "tie":
sheet2[team1][0] += 1
sheet2[team1][1] += 3
sheet2[team2][0] += 1
sheet2[team2][1] += 3
results2.append(f"{team1} tie {team2}")
# use recursion to do next matchup
simulatePossibilities(sheet2, matchups2, results2)
elif result == team1:
sheet2[team1][0] += 2
sheet2[team1][1] += 4
results2.append(f"{team1} beat {team2}")
# use recursion to do next matchup
simulatePossibilities(sheet2, matchups2, results2)
elif result == team2:
sheet2[team2][0] += 2
sheet2[team2][1] += 4
results2.append(f"{team2} beat {team1}")
# use recursion to do next matchup
simulatePossibilities(sheet2, matchups2, results2)
sheet_now = {#name: [points, wins]
"storms": [5, 12],
"heroes": [4, 10],
"squirtles": [4, 10],
"ghosters": [3, 9],
"haxers": [2, 8],
"thieves": [0, 5]
}
weeks_left = [
[["haxers","storms"], ["squirtles","heroes"], ["thieves","ghosters"]],
[["haxers","thieves"], ["squirtles","storms"], ["heroes","ghosters"]]
]
# flatten list of lists
sheet = sheet_now
matchups = functools.reduce(operator.iconcat, weeks_left, [])
#print(matchups)
simulatePossibilities(sheet, matchups)
Storms
- Reaching 9 points (winning both remaining matches vs Haxers and Squirtles) guarantees 1st seed as nobody can catch them, trivially.
- Reaching 8 points (getting a win+tie) guarantees playoffs but not 1st seed. To lose 1st seed, Heroes would need to win both their remaining matches (vs Squirtles and Ghosters) and have better differential than Storms.
- Reaching 7 points (getting one win or two ties) guarantees playoffs for Storms. If Heroes or Squirtles win both their remaining matches they take first seed on points. Alternatively, if Heroes/Squirtles/Ghosters reach 7 points then it will go to differential.
- Reaching 6 points (getting a single tie) guarantees at least a tiebreak opportunity to qualify, if not outright making playoffs on points. Three other teams must reach 6 points (most likely Heroes, Squirtles, Ghosters with 2, 2, 3 more points respectively) to require a tiebreak.
- Remaining on 5 points (losing twice), there is a chance they still qualify outright on points, if only two other teams reach 5 points. Otherwise, there could be a tiebreak, or even a possibility that three teams reach 6 points and displace Storms outright (see below).
Heroes
- Reaching 8 points (winning both remaining matches vs Squirtles and Ghosters) guarantees playoffs. Storms must win both their matches (vs Haxers and Squirtles), or get a win+tie and better tiebreak to take 1st seed, otherwise Heroes will have it.
- Reaching 7 points (getting a win+tie) guarantees playoffs for Heroes. If Storms get one win/two ties there will be a tiebreak for 1st seed. If Storms do better they take it, if they do worse then Heroes take it; with the exception of exactly the scenario where Squirtles tie Heroes and beat Storms, where they would tiebreak Heroes for 1st instead.
- Reaching 6 points (getting one win or two ties) guarantees at least a tiebreak opportunity to qualify, if not outright making playoffs on points. Three other teams must reach 6 points (most likely Storms, Squirtles, Ghosters with 1, 2, 3 more points respectively) to require a tiebreak.
- Reaching 5 points (getting a single tie) will make playoffs if neither Ghosters nor Haxers reach 5 points (needing 2 and 3 points respectively). If at least one of them reaches 5 points then a tiebreak will be required. If three teams reach 6 points (most likely Storms, Squirtles, Ghosters with 1, 2, 3 more points respectively) then Heroes are out.
- Remaining at 4 points (losing twice) will guaranteed not make playoffs for Heroes. Storms are already at 5 points, while Heroes losing to Squirtles and Ghosters boosts them to 6 and 5 points respectively, meaning Heroes are out regardless of other results.
Squirtles
- Reaching 8 points (winning both remaining matches vs Heroes and Storms) guarantees 1st seed. The difference here from the previous two teams is that Squirtles play the other teams that could reach 8, so beating them guarantees they can't tie.
- Reaching 7 points (getting a win+tie) guarantees playoffs for Squirtles. If Storms tied Squirtles and won their other match (vs Haxers) they take 1st seed, otherwise Squirtles has at least a tiebreak for it. Storms, Heroes, Ghosters each could tie, requiring 2, 3, 4 points respectively.
- Reaching 6 points (getting one win or two ties) guarantees at least a tiebreak opportunity to qualify, if not outright making playoffs on points. Three other teams must reach 6 points (most likely Storms, Heroes, Ghosters with 1, 2, 3 more points respectively) to require a tiebreak.
- Reaching 5 points (getting a single tie) will make playoffs if neither Ghosters nor Haxers reach 5 points (needing 2 and 3 points respectively). If at least one of them reaches 5 points then a tiebreak will be required. If three teams reach 6 points (most likely Storms, Heroes, Ghosters with 1, 2, 3 more points respectively) then Squirtles are out.
- Remaining at 4 points (losing twice) means Squirtles qualify outright in exactly one scenario (see below), get left behind if Ghosters or Haxers reach 5 points (needing 2 or 3 points respectively), and otherwise need to win a tiebreak against at least one other team.
Ghosters
- Reaching 7 points (winning both remaining matches vs Thieves and Heroes) guarantees playoffs for Ghosters. 1st seed is possible depending on the results of Squirtles and Storms. If Storms get 3 points, or Squirtles win out and get 4 points, then they take 1st seed on points. Otherwise it's a tiebreak or goes straight to Ghosters depending on if they reach 7 points. Note that as this assumes Ghosters beat Heroes, they cannot then reach 7 points.
- Reaching 6 points (getting a win+tie) guarantees at least a tiebreak opportunity to qualify, if not outright making playoffs on points. As long as one of Heroes or Squirtles don't reach 6 points then Ghosters go straight through, otherwise they need a tiebreak.
- Reaching 5 points (getting one win or two ties) can make playoffs, but will probably require a tiebreak. To not require a tiebreak, then Squirtles or Heroes must lose both their remaining matches (to stay at 4 points), while Haxers must not get the 3 points required to tie. If three teams reach 6 points (most likely Storms, Heroes, Squirtles with 1, 2, 2 more points) then Ghosters are out.
- Reaching 4 points (getting a single tie) will only make playoffs through a tiebreak after other matches going certain ways. Three teams cannot reach 5 points in this case, with Storms starting at 5 and Heroes will move there from 4 after at least a tie vs Ghosters. This means Squirtles must lose both matches against Heroes and Storms, and Haxers must not get 3 points.
- Remaining at 3 points (losing twice) will mean Ghosters miss playoffs. Ghosters potentially come last (see below) and Kyle quits Pokemon forever.
Haxers
- Reaching 6 points (winning both remaining matches vs Storms and Thieves) guarantees at least a tiebreak opportunity to qualify, if not outright making playoffs on points. To qualify outright, then only two other teams can reach 6 points, which can happen in a number of different ways.
- Reaching 5 points (getting a win+tie) can make playoffs, but will probably require a tiebreak. To not require a tiebreak, then Heroes or Squirtles must lose both games (remaining at 4 points), while Ghosters must not reach 5 points (i.e. they must lose both matches or tie one). If three teams reach 6 points (most likely Storms, Heroes, Squirtles with 1, 2, 2 more points) then Haxers are out.
- Reaching 4 points (getting one win/two ties) can make playoffs through a tiebreak under certain conditions. First, Squirtles must lose both remaining matches to remain at 4 points. Second, Ghosters must not reach 5 points, meaning they must lose twice or get one tie.
- Ending at 2/3 points means Haxers miss playoffs, so I will cry and probably start working on a team of bots to play for me.
Thieves
- Must win both remaining weeks (vs Ghosters and Haxers), to reach 4 points and tie for 3rd.
- Storms and Heroes must take 1st/2nd, with no other team reaching 5+ points. This means Squirtles (currently on 4) must lose both their remaining matches (vs Heroes and Storms), while Ghosters must Tie/Lose their week 5 match vs Heroes (and lose to Thieves this week as in point 1). Assuming Thieves beat Haxers week 5, then no matter the result of their match vs Storms, Haxers cannot reach 5 points.
- Must win tiebreak. Thieves lost to Squirtles, who are already at 4 points, so must have a higher differential than them to make playoffs. Beating Ghosters and Haxers is required for 4 points, so if either of these teams also reach 4 points (which is not guaranteed), Thieves will also require a differential greater than or equal to theirs.
TL;DR
9 points = guaranteed 1st
8 points = guaranteed playoffs, probably 1st
7 points = guaranteed playoffs, chance of 1st
6 points = tiebreak if four teams reach 6 points, otherwise guaranteed playoffs
5 points = probably need a tiebreak, unless only three teams reach 5 points, can miss playoffs outright if three teams reach 6 points
4 points = very small chance at playoffs, requiring tiebreak after specific results in other matches
<4 points = mish
Most epic timeline where there's a 5-way tie with 6 points:
