Playoff Scenarios
Welcome back to another analysis of playoff scenarios! With only one week left this time it's much simpler to calculate, so I didn't use a program to do it. Again I looked at win/tie/loss results, but this time I have calculated the exact scenarios for different numbers of wins where they matter. Reminder that teams are ranked by points first, then tiebreaks go in order of differential (number of wins) -> head-to-head (result of tying teams' match) -> tiebreak match (tying teams play a shorter match), only advancing through the tiebreaks if they are tied at each point.
Storms
- Playoffs is guaranteed no matter what, only Heroes can reach them. Storms are likely to take 1st seed but don't have it guaranteed.
- If Storms win, 1st seed is guaranteed, obviously, as nobody can catch them on points.
- If Storms tie, Heroes can overtake for first seed if they win 6-0 to tie on points and overtake on differential. If they win 5-1, then both teams have equal differential and head-to-head was a tie, so it goes to a tiebreaker match. If Heroes win 4-2, or tie or lose, Storms keep 1st seed.
- If Storms lose, then Heroes can win to take 1st seed on points. If Heroes tie, it again comes down to differential. If Storms get two wins, they have better differential and take 1st seed. If Storms get one win, both teams tie on differential and head-to-head, so it goes to a tiebreaker match. If Storms get zero wins, Heroes receive 1st seed from better differential. If Heroes also lose, then Storms keep 1st seed on points.
Heroes
- Playoffs is NOT guaranteed for Heroes yet. They could make 1st seed, or could narrowly miss out on playoffs entirely.
- If Heroes win vs Ghosters, playoffs is guaranteed. If Storms lose vs Squirtles then Heroes take 1st seed. If Storms tie, then Heroes must win 5-1 to be all equal and play a tiebreaker match, or 6-0 to take 1st seed on differential. If Heroes only win 4-2 while Storms tie, or Storms win their match, then Storms will take 1st seed.
- If Heroes draw, playoffs is guaranteed. If Storms lose 6-0 then Heroes take 1st seed. If Storms lose 5-1 they're both completely equal and play a tiebreaker match. If Storms only lose 4-2, or draw or win, then they take 1st seed over Heroes.
- If Heroes lose, playoffs is not guaranteed. With even the minimum win score, 4-2, Ghosters will tie on points and differential with Heroes, but as of the match have head-to-head. Heroes will still make playoffs, unless Squirtles can overtake them. If Squirtles win vs Storms, they will tie on points. If both scores were 4-2, then Heroes and Squirtles will tie on differential, but Heroes go through on head-to-head. If Heroes lose and Squirtles win, and the score in either match was 5-1 or 6-0, then Squirtles will go through on differential and Heroes miss playoffs.
Ghosters
- Playoffs is possible, but not guaranteed for Ghosters. Ghosters cannot take 1st seed.
- If Ghosters win vs Heroes, with any score, they will overtake and be guaranteed playoffs. Even with a match score of 4-2, both teams will tie on points and differential, while Ghosters will have head-to-head. The result of Squirtles match does not matter in this case.
- If Ghosters tie, then their fate depends on Squirtles' result. If Squirtles beat Storms, they will go through to playoffs and Ghosters will not. If Squirtles tie or lose, then Ghosters will go through. If both teams tie they will be equal on points and differential, but Ghosters win on head-to-head.
- If Ghosters lose, then Squirtles or Haxers could overtake. If Squirtles win or tie, they make playoffs and Ghosters are out. If both Squirtles and Ghosters lose, it comes down to differential. If both teams lose by the same score, differential will be tied and Ghosters go through on head-to-head. If both teams lose, but Squirtles won more games than Ghosters (e.g. they lost 4-2, Ghosters lost 5-1), then Squirtles will go through on differential. If Haxers win vs Thieves, with that match and Ghosters' being 4-2, then the two tie in points and differential. If Squirtles also lost 4-2, then all three teams are tied on points and differential with no clear winner on head-to-head so IDK what happens. Otherwise, Haxers and Ghosters are tied in head-to-head so play a tiebreaker match. If Haxers get more than four wins, or Ghosters get less than two wins, then Ghosters are out on differential.
Squirtles
- Playoffs is possible, but not guaranteed for Squirtles. Squirtles cannot take 1st seed.
- If Squirtles win vs Storms, playoffs are still not guaranteed. If Ghosters do not win vs Heroes, Squirtles are guaranteed through. If Ghosters also win, it comes down to tiebreaks. If both teams win by the same amount, tying on differential, then Ghosters will take the playoffs spot from head-to-head. Squirtles must win by more than Ghosters to make playoffs.
- If Squirtles tie, then it comes down to Ghosters' result. If Ghosters win they make playoffs on points. If Ghosters tie, both teams have equal points and differential, but Ghosters go through on head-to-head. If Ghosters lose, Squirtles make playoffs on points.
- If Squirtles lose, then things can get complicated. If Ghosters win or tie, they take the playoffs spot on points. If Ghosters lose by the same score as Squirtles, differential is tied but Ghosters get in on head-to-head. If Ghosters get fewer wins than Squirtles, then Squirtles make playoffs on differential. If Haxers win vs Thieves then this changes things. If all three teams have a score of 4-2, making a 3-way tie on points and differential with no clear winner from head-to-head, IDK what happens. If Haxers get four wins, Squirtles get two, and Ghosters get less than two, then Squirtles and Haxers tie on points and differential but Squirtles go through on head-to-head. If Haxers get more than four wins, or Squirtles get less than two wins, then Squirtles are out on differential.
Haxers
- Playoffs is a slim possibility for Haxers.
- To tie for 3rd with 4 points, Haxers must win against Thieves, while Squirtles and Ghosters must both lose their matches (against Storms and Heroes respectively). If any of these do not happen, playoffs is impossible for Haxers.
- After tying on points, it comes down to differential first. Assuming a worst-case scenario for Haxers, all three matches end 4-2, giving Haxers the least amount of wins and the other teams the most (with the assumption they lost). Then all three teams will be equal on differential. Ghosters beat Squirtles, Squirtles beat Haxers, while Ghosters and Haxers tied. This means the head-to-head records (W-L-T) are Ghosters: 1-0-1, Squirtles: 1-1-0, Haxers: 0-1-1, with no clear head-to-head winner I'm not sure what happens. If only Ghosters get the two wins to tie Haxers on differential, then head-to-head is tied so a tiebreak match between the two would be required. If only Squirtles get the two wins to tie Haxers, then Squirtles go through on head-to-head. If neither Ghosters nor Squirtles get two wins, or Haxers get more than four wins this week (i.e. win 5-1 or 6-0), then Haxers will go through on differential.
Thieves
- Playoffs is only possible if Thieves literally steal another team's place.
TL;DR
Storms - guaranteed playoffs, staying within one win behind of Heroes guarantees 1st seed, being two wins behind can lead to tiebreak match or losing it
Heroes - guaranteed playoffs as long as don't lose and Squirtles win*, need to have two win lead on Storms for chance of 1st seed
Ghosters - make playoffs if they match Squirtles in wins, with the exception of losing and Haxers winning*
Squirtles - make playoffs if they stay a win ahead of Ghosters, with the exception of losing and Haxers winning*
Haxers - need to win and Ghosters + Squirtles both lose to make playoffs*
Thieves - guaranteed logo starting from week 1 next year
* - exact result can still vary based on tiebreaks, see above for more details
. Shadow has played pretty well since his bad w1 and may be 4-0 but it's not like he's played any real good players to get that 4-0 (SS Fran can be good but is no BW Fran) meanwhile shrop is probably the best SS player who is actually playing SS this DPL and as long as he doesn't bring a fish into an almost unwinnable mu again should get the win. If Shadow gets the win here I'll never doubt him again though.
