NOC Electoral Mafia - Game thread

I think what I’m most curious about is what the mafia was doing yesterday. What were they trying to accomplish by halving AirC’s vote? They clearly weren’t really trying to push Realiti seriously if that’s the case right since they could’ve halved literally any other town.
 
I just want y'all to know that I started working on this officially at post #1,885 so y'all better read it. I even added colors.
Color-coding be upon ye!

D1 Ending Votes (#355): No Vote Shenanigans To Be Had
phoopes (3): ShyPebble, Miyami, AngryPidgeon
DBD (2): phoopes, a fairy
No Vote (2): Peum, DBD
AirC (1): LiquidLarry
AngryPidgeon (1): AirC
LiquidLarry (1): realiti
ShyPebble (1): Tsuki

Not Voting: Carrotman, jalmont, pulsar
Scum Voting Patterns:
Of the folks we can confirm are scum (AP, Larry, and AirC). Two of the mafia voted at the last minute (AirC onto AP [#353], and AP onto phoopes [#345]), Larry voted AirC 30 minutes before the end of phase (#304). The likelihood is on the first day mafia we're looking for a wait and see kind of approach to direct votes. Only 3 of the 4 mafia were voted (AirC, AP, and Larry) with APs last vote being on a villager. I take this to mean that either he was trying to avoid confirming last maf with his vote in the event of a flip OR the last mafia member was already being voted this would point to DBD being final maf.
[A minimum of 3 votes , or a maximum of 5 votes, were likely acquired by Mafia this phase]

Unknown Voting Patterns:
Realiti fumbled through multiple different Votes this phase before settling on Larry [#275]. a fairy settled on DBD with Phoopes [#300]. And DBD [#289] chose to no vote an hour before phase change. Of the three unknowns, only Realiti ended the day on a mafia member, pointing to the likelihood that Realiti is final maf.
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D2 Ending Votes (#899): Pebble locked on Dead by Daylight (M), Peum RBed (M), Miyami No Vote (T), AP Claimed #719
Carrotman (5): Jalmont, Peum, Dead By Daylight, realiti
Dead By Daylight (4): ShyPebble (locked), a fairy, AirC, Carrotman
LiquidLarry (2): AngryPidgeon, Tsuki
AngryPidgeon (1): LiquidLarry
jalmont (1): Pulsar

Not voting: Miyami~~~
AP Claimed Action: Jal and Peum (Unlikely)
Realiti Result: LiquidLarry visited Peum
Scum Voting Patterns:
AP voted Larry [#559], there's a great reaction from Realiti [#560] in response to this vote because it seems out of left field. Larry votes AP [#574]. AirC votes DBD [#869] in a self-described attempt to rescue Carrotman. We know this isn't the case as AirC is scum. This could point to AirC swapping to DBD in order to increase the number of votes they received. I wonder the likelihood that AirC used their ability on Dead by Daylight this last phase so there was no concern of them actually dying that phase, but that's more conjecture than anything.
[A minimum of 3 votes, or a maximum of 7 votes, were likely acquired by Mafia this phase]

Unknown Voting Patterns:
a fairy voted DBD [#844]. DBD voted Carrotman [#745] (atp votes were Carrotman (3): Jal and Peum, AngryPidgeon (3): Larry, Realiti, AirC) reason given was they'd prefer Carrotman to AP dying. Realiti voted AP [#554] and Larry [#553] this phase before ending on Carrotman at the last possible second [#895]. We know that AP couldn't have been protected this day as AirCs ability can't consecutively target mafia. However, both realiti and DBD ended up voting Carrotman so idk that it pushes them in either direction. I'd suspect at least one mafia member was on Carrotman though, I don't feel a fairy's vote on DBD both phases can point to her being scum, but tbh, I never really thought she'd be scum in the first place.
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D3 Ending Votes (#1226): No Vote Lock (S), No RB (S), Pebble No Vote (T), AP protected from Day Elimination(S)
AngryPidgeon (5): liquidLarry, realiti, Dead By Daylight, Peum, AirC
liquidLarry (3): Miyami~~~, jalmont
Dead By Daylight (2): AngryPidgeon, a fairy
Peum (1): Tsuki

AP Claimed Action: Realiti and Miyami (Also feels unlikely)
Realiti Result: N/A
Scum Voting Patterns:
LiquidLarry leads the charge with a vote on AP [#1008]. AP originally votes DBD 3 minutes before phase change [#1212] after asking a fairy for her case on them, then fumbles the unvote twice[#1218][#1220] and ends up leaving their vote there. AirC ties the vote on AP [#1217] knowing he has day elimination immunity at the last possible second ending with votecount 3.8.
The previous vote counts 3.7 top 3 wagons were:
LiquidLarry (4) [AP, Miyami, Jal (2)]
AngryPidgeon (3) [liquidrelief, realiti, DBD]
Dead by Daylight (2) [Peum, a fairy].
The remaining vote switches were made in the last 3 minutes in which AP removes his vote from LiquidLarry to DBD, and AirC swaps his solo vote from Pulsar to AP achieving the No Day Elimination. Regardless of whether Peum swapped off DBD or not, AP was sealed as the elimination for that day (the votecount also has Peum and AirC reversed, AirC [#1217] voted before Peum [#1219] did). Rather than risk exposing themselves with the day vote, I feel if DBD was town, the easiest thing would have been for AP and AirC to move onto them to seal the elimination with the understanding that if someone did swap, neither Larry nor AP would have been voted out that phase.
If Peum SwappedIf Peum Didn't Swap
liquidLarry (3): Miyami, Jal [2]liquidLarry (3): Miyami, Jal [2]
AngryPidgeon (4): liquidLarry, realiti, DBD, PeumAngryPidgeon (3): liquidLarry, realiti, DBD
Dead By Daylight (3): a fairy, AngryPidgeon, AirCDead by Daylight (4): Peum, a fairy, AngryPidgeon, AirC
Result: AP rescued from Vote Elimination due to AirC roleResult: Dead by Daylight flips town, AirC and AP aren't buddied
Actually looking at it now, Peum could have moved onto Larry, so that is a risk to them. I doubt Peum would have as the last amount of discussion had been exclusively abt DBD, but it was an option. I still feel like pushing for the DBD vote would have been the best option if DBD was indeed town. If all of the wagons yesterday were scum however, then AirC moving onto AP makes more sense as the only mafia member who would have been protected that phase. I also found of all the EOD this had the most theatrical element. Not just AirC stating they were going to follow their call, and then making a separate post to vote AP afterwards, but also APs clumsy attempts at unvoting DBD in the last couple seconds (as well as their vote in the first place on someone they defended not even 10 posts before and soft cleared earlier in the phase for being vote locked by me on D2).
[A minimum of 8 votes, or a rough maximum of 10 votes, were likely acquired by Mafia this phase]

Unknown Voting Patterns:
Realiti and DBD both end up voting for AP, this is kind of NAI for both of them as well. I would pull the information/timing for it, but I feel like the scum vote analysis has more relevancy. a fairy has been voting DBD for the last like 3 phases. I feel scum would have more variation at this point considering their need for votes, so a fairy's voting just makes me more confident they're town.
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D4 Ending Votes (#1722): First NK of the game on Pulsar (M), Miyami RBed (M), Jalmont locked on Liquidrelief (M)
AngryPidgeon (6): realiti, ShyPebble, Miyami, Peum, AirC, AngryPidgeon
liquidLarry (2): a fairy, Dead By Daylight
realiti (2): jalmont (locked)
AirC (1): Tsuki

AP Claimed Action: No One
Realiti Result: AP visited Realiti and AirC
Vote Analysis: This one kind of ended up being a slam dunk because Realiti claimed and we all kind of piled onto the two people he investigated. The only ones who didn't were Jal who was locked onto Realiti, and Tsuki who jumped onto AirC at the last possible second for investigation shenanigans. The votes from AirC and AP were likely intended to just gather more votes to fuel their roles/factional kill. I believe that inclusion of math means their night faction kill may be similar to my role in that it takes a percentage of the votes earned in order to use more powerful abilities and the like. But who knows. Fun Fact: This is the only time that a fairy didn't vote DBD lmao. I will get into role analysis a little bit more in a bit.
[A minimum of 9 votes, or a rough maximum of 10.5 votes, were likely acquired by Mafia this phase]
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Also, uh Peum can you check the first role analysis in this next spoiler and see what you think? Feel like you have strong handle on mechanics and can just tell me I'm crazy.
Mafia Roles - Confirmed
1. Gerrymander: May target two players and steal 50% of the votes they get at the end of the following day. These votes will not count towards the vote count, only towards roles and the factional kill.
Role Analysis: This is the only role we 100% know, and I find the language in it very interesting. The implication of stealing implies that the votes are taken away, meaning half of the votes on a player can't be used to eliminate them during the day. And that's only if I'm interpreting it correctly, idk if we can ask Evie abt how it works since it's public. BUT, regardless, that makes this role very versatile for scum:
1. it can be used to siphon votes off a player to fuel scum roles/factional kills.
2. it can be used to protect mafia members from being voted in certain situations.
However, if we're right under the assumption that mafia need to be voted themselves in order to gain charge for their actions each night, then it stands to reason that choosing AirC is a strange choice to steal 50% of their votes. Firstly, it means that instead of receiving 1 vote for only Tsuki's vote on AirC EOD4, Mafia would have received .5 from stealing half of AirCs votes AND .5 from Tsuki's vote in the first place equaling out to the same 1 vote. Versus, if the role was used on a villager who had 1 vote EOD. Mafia would gain .5 extra votes from a player they'd have no way of gathering votes from in the first place.

What does this mean though? I think it means 2 things:
1. AP used their ability on AirC to protect them from being eliminated D4, this means AirCs protection likely was placed on one of the other 2 mafia members last phase.
2. realiti is likely town being used to siphon votes off of. The use of Vote Direction on jalmont, with the knowledge that he has 2 votes, means the Mafia nets an extra vote each phase as long as Jal is targeting another villager. This is the most economical use of Jal's 2 votes and I think the best synergy between the mafia roles we have some knowledge of.
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Mafia Roles - Suspected
2. Day Elimination Prevention: prevents target from being eliminated by vote during the day, self-targetable, cannot be assigned to same player twice in a row (AirC - self-claimed).
3. Roleblocker: Idk, roleblocks ppl? I assume it needs to be voted to be charged, much like mine needs to be (LiquidLarry - Realiti result).
4. Vote Director: Directs vote of Target A onto Target B (Unknown)
Role Analysis: This one is going to be much shorter (mainly cause I'm getting tired). But essentially the synergy between these roles works really well assuming it works how I think it does OwO. I think the mafia strategy this game was to plan their EOD votes in advance. We see in each EOD vote count that mafia members are frequently voting other mafia members (including themselves in this last one). I have lost steam tbh... Gerrymander and the Day Elimination Prevention both point towards a strategy that rewards inflating scum wagons to gather more votes, especially since AirCs role keeps the votes on the player but stops them from being eliminated (compared to Pulsars Doc role which doesn't allow a player to be voted at all the next day), while reducing the likelihood they'll die for it. This would also even out the number of protective roles we got (3 T Protectors v 2 S Protectors).
I think honestly, the Night Kill is probs more similar to my role in that votes need to be collected in order to do things, probably with a similar math/fraction mechanic. I say this mainly because I don't think I've seen any other roles involving math besides the Gerrymander which can store a percentage of someone's vote for use later. I think the fact that mafia members are voting mafia members every single round, they also begin bussing each other right at the start of the game, means that each mafia member ensured there was a vote on them as much as possible. In this case, DBD has a vote every single day D1-D3 points strongly to them being mafia.
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And for you non-readers, here is a TLDR, but I strongly suggest checking the D3 EOD Vote Analysis and Suspected Mafia Roles Analysis sections at the minimum.
DBD is probs maf, trust.

Also here's this for shits and giggles, yw
NameRoleN1/D2 ActionN2/D3 ActionN3/D4 ActionN4/D5 Action
AngryPidgeonGerrymander: May target two players and steal 50% of the votes they get at the end of the following day. These votes will not count towards the vote count, only towards roles and the factional kill.Claimed: Jal and Peum (Unconfirmed)Claimed: Realiti and Miyami (Unconfirmed)Claimed: No One (False)
Realiti Result: AirC and Realiti		DEAD
MiyamiOmniguard: Target a player and protect from all actions, including night kill, next day phase your target will be unable to voteMiyami (Confirmed)Pebble (Confirmed)Pulsar (RBed)Jalmont (RBed)
Dead by DaylightFruit Vendor: 2-shot that gives Election Ballot to target that grants immunity to vote manipulation. Can choose when to send Vote Manipulation Immunity.Peum (Confirmed)Pebble (Blocked by Miyami)Pebble (Confirmed)Jalmont (Blocked)
pulsar512bSecret Service: may target another player. Your target cannot be killed tonight, and votes towards them will not be counted the following day. You may not target yourself.IdledMiyami (Confirmed)Miyami (Confirmed)DEAD
CarrotmanAssassin: During the night, if at least a quarter of the alive players voted for you on the previous day, you may kill one person who voted for you at the end of the previous day.IdledDEADDEADDEAD
phoopesElection Official: Once per game, you may stop any roles from affecting the votecount the following day.DEADDEADDEADDEAD
liquidLarryLikely RoleblockerPeum (Confirmed)UnknownMiyami (Confirmed)Miyami (Confirmed)
ShyPebbleWhen voted, role gains charge equal to number of votes x 4 divided by number of alive players. Once charge reaches 1, can be expended to RB someone or increase vote (Public Increase). Votes can be stacked.IdledIdledIdledIdled
AirCDay Vote Stopper: Prevents target from being voted out next day, still counts votes for role/factional kill probably, can't target same person consecutively.Claimed: Idled (Unconfirmed)Claimed: AirC (False)
Actual: AngryPidgeon		Claimed: AirCNo Claim
a fairyAnnouncer and One-Time Neighbourizer(?)AnnouncementAnnouncementAnnouncementUnclear
TsukiPrivate Investigator: Once per game lets them activate their role to see alignments of everyone they voted for.Voted: ShyPebble (Town)Voted: LiquidLarry (Mafia)Voted: Peum (Town)Voted: AirC (Mafia)
jalmontNo idea lmao, something with a permanent 2 votes since D2????????????
realitiTracker: Can track a player by voting them, as long as that player doesn't dieLiquidLarry: Visited PeumIdledAngryPidgeon: Visited AirC and PeumIdled
PeumCan Guard 3 times per game which protects from Night Kill. When Guarded learns who visited and gains a secret 2 votes on them the next dayGuarded (Blocked)IdledIdledGuarded (Successful on LiquidLarry)
 
jalmont said:
I think what I’m most curious about is what the mafia was doing yesterday. What were they trying to accomplish by halving AirC’s vote? They clearly weren’t really trying to push Realiti seriously if that’s the case right since they could’ve halved literally any other town.
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Boy do I have a post for you partially abt that OwO
 
Dead by Daylight Can you clarify what your role does again? My understanding is a Fruit Vendor who hands out election ballots each night. But two times in game you can hand out the ballot and add vote manipulation immunity to it. How long is the immunity applied for? Have you handed that immunity out to any players yet?

And were you Roleblocked last night?
 
jalmont said:
I think what I’m most curious about is what the mafia was doing yesterday. What were they trying to accomplish by halving AirC’s vote? They clearly weren’t really trying to push Realiti seriously if that’s the case right since they could’ve halved literally any other town.
Click to expand...
Wait reading, if I am reading the role correctly, I think Gerrymander steals the EOD votes from a player, not the players vote itself (unless that's what you're saying already, but I'm tired). So it halves the number of votes on someone but also stores those votes for use later. I think it was used on realiti to steal 1 vote for mafia to use towards roles/factional kill, and on AirC to protect him from a vote elimination. That's also why your role was latched onto Realiti probably, I think maf gets most use from you if you're attached to a villager rather than a mafia member.

Comparatively, I think you're on AirC rn so he can rope in some more votes for his team before he goes, think he might have used his Day Elimination Protection today rather than yesterday. But Idk :O
 
jalmont said:
I think what I’m most curious about is what the mafia was doing yesterday. What were they trying to accomplish by halving AirC’s vote? They clearly weren’t really trying to push Realiti seriously if that’s the case right since they could’ve halved literally any other town.
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based on how airc is acting I think they're just trolling/wifoming us
 
And we might as well include this too I guess
NameD1 Votes - Last #355D2 Votes - Last #899D3 VotesD4 Votes - Last #1722D5 Votes
AngryPidgeonPeum [#23], Miyami [#148], Unvote [#287], Phoopes [#345]Larry [#559]liquidLarry [#998], DBD [#1212]AngryPidgeon [#1710]DEAD
liquidLarryPeum [#26], AirC [#304]AirC [#461], AngryPidgeon [#574]AngryPidgeon [#1008]MIAMIA
AirCAngryPidgeon [#248], Phoopes [#347], Unvote [#350], AngryPidgeon [#353]AngryPidgeon [#655], DBD [#868]Pulsar [#1148], AngryPidgeon [#1217]liquidLarry [#1640], AngryPidgeon [#1719]AirC [#1803]
Dead by DaylightNo Vote [#289]Miyami [#718], Carrotman [#745]AngryPidgeon [#1080]liquidLarry [ #1637]liquidLarry [#1772]
a fairyMiyami [#229], Unvote [#242], jalmont [#286], DBD [#300]Dead by Daylight [#844]Dead by Daylight [#1125]liquidLarry [#1547]MIA
realitiPhoopes [#3], Miyami [#73], Unvote [#272], Larry [#275]DBD [#365], Larry [#408], AngryPidgeon [#498], Miyami [#541], Larry [#553], AngryPidgeon [#554] liquidLarry [#982], AngryPidgeon [#1044]liquidLarry [#1343], liquidLarry [#1473], AngryPidgeon [#1674]MIA
 
Miyami~~~ said:
I think the last two spots left where the last mafia member can even be are him or Realiti since everyone else has a confirmed night action

(it's Realiti)
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But DBDs played so laaaaame this game, and all of the mafia have votes on them every phase almost. Realiti only had the vote from Jalmont last phase. DBD had the votes from D1-D3. Admittedly none of them are from Maf, but they don't really need to vote him if villagers are gunna do it for them anyway
 
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