Is Budew broken?
There's been a lot of discourse
over Budew lately, so I wanted to give my thoughts in an actual longform post rather than disorganized conversations on Discord.I. Budew Crash Course
Budew, considered the best Pokemon in the tier according to our most recent VR, is ranked as such due to its litany of positive traits. Its unique typing of Grass/Poison is very good in this tier. Defensively it's decent, providing useful defensive utility into Bramblin's Power Whip, Luvdisc's Water-type STAB, and Arrokuda's Liquidation and Flip Turn. It's not amazing, though, including notable weaknesses into Hatenna's Psychic-type STAB and Litwick's Fire-type STAB, among others. Despite only having decent typing, it has a great defensive profile thanks to access to Synthesis, great special bulk, and useful abilities in Natural Cure and Poison Point.
Offensively, however, Grass/Poison is very strong. It's one of the few Pokemon that can reliably beat both Nacli and Jigglypuff, and has an easy time doing so. The only Pokemon in the tier that resist the combination are certain Poison-types, Litwick, and Beldum, both of which it gets coverage for in Extrasensory and Shadow Ball. Past its STAB combination, it gets access to Spikes to serve as an easy setter.
II. The Fourth Move Slot
When building Budew, three slots are basically pre-determined for you, in Giga Drain, Sludge Bomb, and Synthesis. This may strike you as potentially falling into 4MSS, but this is not a good example as these three moveslots are all Budew needs to function to check what it wants to. The fourth move slot allows you to get even further value out of your Budew. Sorting in order of rarity:
- Spikes is the classic fourth move. Hazard removal is decent in DNU, but every remover has some key weakness that it needs to navigate around. As such, Spikes lets Budew get a ton of progress over the course of the game.
- Shadow Ball is the classic Budew coverage option, that lets it hit Beldum and Litwick for super-effective damage. You may also think its useful for Hatenna; while true it has a higher effective base power, Sludge Bomb's chance of Poisoning Hatenna means that it actually does comparable damage on average, and is the click that will end up being more productive over the course of a game.
- Sleep Powder is the RNG check option, as it lets you sleep the opponent's switch-in. Several of Budew's better checks, such as Hatenna and Swablu, don't mind getting slept due to their ability, but others, such as Beldum and Wooper-Paldea, really hate being slept, which allows you to either go to a counter or even just break your way through; running Sleep Powder actually lets bulky Budew 1v1 SpDef Wooper-Paldea, which should be one of its better checks, using Giga Drain.
- Extrasensory is the move to slot to beat Poison-types, such as Wooper-Paldea and Zubat. It's not the strongest move in the tier, but it does the job well enough. It's not used very much but does help you beat a few specific checks. It also helps you in the ditto, but Sludge Bomb does enough that it is difficult to justify the moveslot just for opposing Budew.
- Stun Spore and Growth are niche options that have been run before as well, but these are rare enough that I don't consider them in the teambuilder.
III. Defensive Counterplay
I'm going to break down what can viably switch in on a standard Modest with bulk investment Budew. Note that these are all considering the long-term game, meaning able to come in on Budew consistently over the course of a game, for the purposes of fat teams. Also note that most, if not all of these, lose if their Eviolite gets Knocked.
This ended up being a very long section, so I'll wrap it in a spoiler, but TL;DR is that Budew's defensive counterplay options are limited. There's a lot in theory, but in practice there's usually something holding said counterplay back. One of the best ways to counter this set is your own Modest with bulk Budew. Also, a lot of Budew counters are RestTalkers, which means that Budew can get free turns to exploit them.
(Defensive RestTalk) doesn't work. If you run enough SpDef EVs to get 3HKOed by Shadow Ball, you cannot OHKO Eviolite Budew even with maximum hazards, and you even miss the OHKO on itemless Budew. This means that you need to have no chip on you whatsoever, and dodge Shadow Ball SpDef drops (or Sludge Bomb poison chance if that's what they're clicking--it works out about the same) in order to beat Budew. You're then forced to Rest. Running max SpDef isn't particularly great as the tier's offensive power leans physical.
(Bulky RestTalk) works, unless Budew is Shadow Ball. Litwick has a similar bulk profile to Hatenna but in this instance the defender resists Sludge Bomb as well. Litwick also can run more offensive EVs in order to secure the kill more consistently over Hatenna. Similarly to Hatenna, running enough SpDef EVs to survive 2 hits from Shadow Ball means you don't OHKO with your STAB (but you do more damage than Hatenna, so it works out better overall). It's the same as above, except you resist Sludge Bomb, which does make a large difference.
works, and is one of the more consistent checks to Budew. However, Swablu has few key weaknesses that it needs to work around, so a well-piloted Budew team can break through over time. If Swablu is max PhysDef, Sludge Bomb is a 3HKO after Rocks, and if Swablu has been chipped previously it risks dying to Poison damage. Thus, Swablu is forced to run some SpDef, which reduces its ability to check physical threats such as Arrokuda. Also, this is one of the Pokemon that is most burdened by Spikes on the switch-in, as it means you have to find a turn to Defog with Swablu, something easier said than done.
works, unless Budew is Sleep Powder or Extrasensory. We went over this one above, so I don't feel the need to go into detail. Also, if Wooper gets Knocked, it loses to Giga Drain, no matter what Budew's fourth move is. It's consistent into the two most common moves, though, so it's... acceptable.
(Bulky RestTalk) works, unless Budew is Extrasensory. To be honest, I have no idea if this is a real set, but it has gotten wins so it's worth mentioning here. This set farms common Budew sets, with Shadow Ball not being a guaranteed 3HKO with two layers of hazards. However, Extrasensory is a 50% chance to 2HKO without any hazards, so unless you've scouted its whole moveset it's not guaranteed.
(Bulky and Defensive) doesn't work. Rocks chip + risk of Poison damage ruins this one, but more notably, max HP Eviolite Budew doesn't even get consistently 2HKOed by Air Slash; it's a roll to 2HKO with a layer of hazards. Similarly to Hatenna and Litwick above, the more SpDef EVs you run the better this gets at checking, but you're getting considerably weaker and start to let even frail attackers in. At max SpDef, Swinub doesn't even get 2HKOed. Yikes.
(Defensive) works, with a couple asterisks. It's technically not perfectly consistent, as you can get flinched to death by Extrasensory. You also need to run Eviolite. Boots Zubat gets 2HKOed by Extrasensory, and Shadow Ball drops means that you can also lose if you try to Brave Bird the Budew instead of Roosting.
(SpDef) worksEDIT: Alon Guy Person reminded me that Meditite does actually work, with a couple asterisks, as it outspeeds bulky Budew. This means it can attack after the first Shadow Ball and not risk dying, even with a drop, or heal up immediately if it is chipped. It can still lose to two SpDef drops if you try to Calm Mind on the Budew, or if the Budew has enough investment to outspeed. Leaving the rest of the write-up as it's still mostly true, but being faster flips it to an almost-always-win. My bad for the mistake!
(SpDef) works, but it's a flawed Pokemon that is basically hard-locked to Stall. Mixed bulk is more flexible, but it's less consistent and risks getting poisoned by Sludge Bomb. Also, it's reliant on Natural Cure + Rest for recovery, which means that Budew can force it to Rest and open up a free turn, for either Spikes or a free switch out.That's the list. In summary--wait, no, I forgot one.
(Bulky Eviolite) works, barring poor luck (losing speed ties and getting flinched by Extrasensory). Yeah, one of Budew's best defensive checks is Bulky Eviolite Budew, which I'll remind you is the set we have been analyzing in this section. Other Budew sets will fare better into the various counterplay options, including itself, but if you need a splashable check for Bulky Eviolite Budew, the most splashable and flexible option is itself. The exact same set, barring the fourth moveslot.I'm not going to spend nearly as much time on offensive counterplay, but here's a brief synopsis: Budew's poor physical defense means that any super-effective Physical hit blows it up, and even strong neutral hits can take out less bulky variants (either fast or Itemless, the latter of which is often run as a tech for Bramblin). Pikipek, Taillow, and the Rattatas all revenge kill it (for Rattata-Alola, it needs Hustle, so it's not reliable). Swinub works if it outspeeds (aka, Budew is bulky). Nymble can U-Turn for a significant amount of chip, forcing it to burn a Synthesis. Kirlia, Arrokuda, and Zigzagoon-Galar can all hit it for big damage up to an OHKO, depending on the Budew set, but require being faster, a correct prediction, and a clean switch and the Budew being itemless, respectively. There's also more that I haven't listed here, but as a rule of thumb, Budew's biggest weakness is that, even though it is fast for a defensive Pokemon, as an offensive Pokemon, it's fairly slow.
IV: Comparing Budew to Tiering Policy
Going through the tiering policy framework, which of the criteria for tiering action does Budew fit?
I think Budew doesn't fit as uncompetitive. There is a decent amount of RNG nonsense that comes with Budew, such as Sludge Bomb poisons, Shadow Ball SpDef drops, and Poison Point activations, but it's comparable to a Pokemon like Zapdos in OU in that regard. It can be and often is frustrating to fight against, but there is no truly needed RNG management in fighting Budew; it's just tipping the scales a little in favor of the Budew player.
I'm not sure whether Budew as broken by the definition used in the Smogon tiering policy, but I lean towards yes. It is a Pokemon that is difficult to build a team without. However, you can run viable Budewless teams, but those structures tend to be far more limited in what they can accomplish because of how much Budew provides to a team. For a tournament example, Budew was used in all 6 teams in Week 1 of SoloPL. One of the Budews died turn 1, but besides that, each Budew massively contributed, and two of the games had Budew vs. Budew on the field for a good amount of their runtime (teamo vs. JeoZ had both Budews almost entirely exhausted of PP). Could these players have run Budewless balance? Sure, but it would require a much more specific build.
Is Budew unhealthy? This is a difficult question. It is undeniably centralizing. If you look at our VR, so many Pokemon are affected by Budew. Despite this, Nacli and Jigglypuff are still #2 and #3. If Budew was well and truly unhealthy, why are the defensive Pokemon it checks still ranked so highly? You'd expect them to move down at least a little. As stated before, it's very centralizing. Is its centralization a positive or a negative effect on the metagame? It's hard to say.
Is it a Landorus-Therian, where its flexible qualities let it shine in a variety of teams? Is it a Primal Groudon, where it's so good it's difficult to drop, but for its ability to let you run a bigger variety of Pokemon on the rest of the team? Or is a garden variety brokemon where the tier has been centralized around it so it's harder to separate the impact it has on both the builder and in-game?
This write-up took a while but, as a certified yapper, I enjoy doing them and plan to continue. If you've played DNU lately, I'd be very curious to hear your thoughts. A Budew suspect is absolutely in the cards, but not one I want to do hastily considering how influential it currently is on the tier; a theoretical Budew ban would upset the status quo more so than any other tiering action we've had in this tier, in my opinion even more so than the Diglett-Alola ban. Were we to suspect Budew tomorrow, I'm not sure what I'd vote.
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2.45 overall, 2.00 qualified
1.73, 1.57
1.82, 1.71
1.73, 1.43
2.27, 2.14
2.27, 2.43
2.00, 1.43
2.09, 1.57
Swinub received a write-in vote, as were Sleep Moves.
Spheal will have to wait, but 
Goomy, 
Steenee, 
Tympole, and a suspect out being our next course of action are all on the table. There was also a write-in of revisiting 
Shedinja (and I know of one SoloPL player who didn't fill out the survey with a similar opinion), which is personally not something I would like to revisit but would begrudgingly do so with more support, so I'll plan to ask about it in the next survey.