I want to tackle the damage formula. So I'm spending some time in Area 20, hitting once then catching the Pokémon, and let's compare to the damage calculator (Extreme Speed was correctly nerfed to 65 BP in the calculations)
Part 1 - Level 100:
252 Atk Lucario vs. Lvl 53 0 HP / 0 Def 4 IVs Dragalge: 146-172 (98.6 - 116.2%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO
Actual damages: 103
252 Atk Lucario Extreme Speed vs. Lvl 54 0 HP / 0 Def 2 IVs Malamar: 147-174 (84.9 - 100.5%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO
Actual damages: 110
252 Atk Lucario Extreme Speed vs. Lvl 56 0 HP / 0- Def 0 IVs Scrafty: 125-148 (80.1 - 94.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Actual damages: 89
252 Atk Lucario Extreme Speed vs. Lvl 54 0 HP / 0 Def 6 IVs Hippowdon: 111-131 (56.3 - 66.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Actual damages in two hits: 164
252 Atk Lucario Extreme Speed vs. Lvl 54 0 HP / 0 Def 9 IVs Malamar: 143-169 (82.6 - 97.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Actual damages: 118
If it's just a plain multiplier, it can only be something between 0.7055 and 0.6982. That would make sense with the 0.7 datamined that we couldn't pinpoint to anything.
Part 2 - Level 50ish:
Level is the second parameter I want to try. If the formula wasn't linear, changing the level is the only "static" parameter I could think of. So let's play with my newly caught lvl 54 Malamar.
Lvl 54 0 Atk 30 IVs Malamar Psycho Cut vs. Lvl 30 0 HP / 0- Def 22 IVs Furfrou: 118-141 (125.5 - 150%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Actual damages: 90
Lvl 54 0 Atk 30 IVs Malamar Psycho Cut vs. Lvl 31 0 HP / 0 Def 25 IVs Stunfisk: 78-93 (66.1 - 78.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Actual damages: 57
Lvl 54 0 Atk 30 IVs Malamar Psycho Cut vs. Lvl 32 0 HP / 0 Def 13 IVs Stunfisk: 81-96 (66.9 - 79.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Actual damages: 65
A plain multiplier would be between 0.7308 and 0.6771. At this point and with the datamined 0.7, I'm convinced there is a flat nerf of 70% to every move against wild Pokémon.
Part 3 - Taking hits:
Back to area 20, I'll take some hits then catch the Pokémon to see the stats. Is it fair? Maybe the wild Pokémon are cheating! Let's find out.
Lvl 53 0 SpA 25 IVs Roserade Giga Drain vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Lucario: 19-23 (6.7 - 8.1%) -- possibly the worst move ever
Actual damages: 16 (OK I'll try to take hits on something else for bigger numbers)
Lvl 54 0 SpA 10 IVs Malamar Psyshock vs. Lvl 54 0 HP / 0 Def 15 IVs Chikorita: 48-57 (37.2 - 44.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
Actual damages: 34
Lvl 54 0 SpA 0 IVs Dragalge Hydro Pump vs. Lvl 54 0 HP / 0 SpD 20 IVs Chikorita: 28-33 (21.7 - 25.5%) -- 0.5% chance to 4HKO
Actual damages: 25
The final calculation scared me for a second, it didn't make any sense... Until I remembered that NVE are x0.6 and not x0.5. It also applies to the Giga Drain on Lucario btw.
But it looks like our 0.7 is fair, everyone got this. At least in and against wild non-Alpha Pokémon. Which brings me to the next part: Trainer battles.
Part 4 - Trainer battles:
This time, I am going to assume that everything is fair: if there is a multiplicator, it is the same for each trainer. It wouldn't make sense otherwise and I cannot know exactly how much damages I deal. Let's sit on a bench until the next ZA Royale. The great part is that all trainers have been datamined, I know they have 0 IV and I know their nature. So I can calculate the theory accurately.
Lvl 63 0 Atk 0 IVs Hippowdon Heavy Slam (120 BP) vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Aerodactyl: 98-116 (32.5 - 38.5%) -- 97.6% chance to 3HKO
It dealt 79 damages
Lvl 61 0 Atk 0 IVs Garbodor Gunk Shot vs. 0 HP / 0 Def 7 IVs Meganium: 92-110 (30.5 - 36.5%) -- 56.3% chance to 3HKO
It dealt 67 damages
Lvl 61 0 Atk 0 IVs Garbodor Gunk Shot vs. 0 HP / 0 Def 28 IVs Umbreon: 39-46 (11.7 - 13.8%) -- possible 8HKO
It dealt 29 damages
I have all the reason to believe the 0.7 also apply here.
Final part - Online battles (TODO):
And the most important question, for anyone willing to play online. Do the 70% nerf also apply there? I will need some voluntaries to test this out. I hope that those first four parts will be enough to motivate people to join me in this research, as I will link it to our Discord. We are close, and we'll soon have another card to prepare for online battles!
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