Mafia probability calculations

[Kataphraktoi]

Im posting this here because i need proofreaders, my math is shaky(its been awile....). And im sure no one in the mafia game im playing browses these forums. This is a fictional example im going to use to back up an math argument...naturally id rather be wrong here than in the mafia game!

2 mafias 3 members in each
2 doc
2 cop
2 blocker
2 tracker
1 booster
2 unknown townie role
=17 players

6 mafia versus 11 townie. 35% mafia. However only two have killing roles(in this example) so its an 11% chance of boosting a killer. Each mafia GF has an 64% chance of targeting a townie with a 18% chance of targetting the opposing mafia. Successively gained kills dont change this. Therefore a booster has a 17% chance off the bat to kill a townie.(11% to target GF*chance for GF to target townie 64%)

Meanwhile, the docs. Each doc has a 6%(11% because theres two) chance to be targetted by the booster, and everyone has a 6%(11% again because of two) chance to get targetted by a doc. But the chance of a doc saving someone is low-the GFs have to select the same people as the docs, and the docs dont have the same chances(because they select from a wider pool) Individually the GF has a 7% chance of targeting anyone outside his mafia, the doc a 6% chance of targeting anyone but himself, and the chance they select the same target is much less than 1%.

If you can point out errors, please do so, would help if you explain how to improve any errors. :)

 

[Kataphraktoi]

Successively gained kills dont change this. Therefore a booster has a 17% chance off the bat to kill a townie.(11% to target GF*chance for GF to target townie 64%)

Ah, i believe this is wrong. It should be .11*.64=.07 or 7%

 

[Hipmonlee]

Individually the GF has a 7% chance of targeting anyone outside his mafia, the doc a 6% chance of targeting anyone but himself, and the chance they select the same target is much less than 1%.

I think this is the chance they will both select any given target. It also seems to assume one doc and one killer.. It's too early in the morning for me to be giving you the correct answer, but I am pretty sure you are wrong here..

Also what is a GF and what is a booster.

Have a nice day.

Have a nice day.

 

[Thorns]

GF is godfather. He's immune (ie he's villy) to all inspections.

 

[Pyromanic]

25% chance that one of the blockers will hit the GF.
12.5% chance that a non-doc will be targeted for doc protection.
14.2% chance that you will be targeted for a mafia kill.
1.7% chance that you will be targeted for a doc and kill.

Have a nice day.

Have a nice day.

Hipmonlee slipped up :O