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NOC Matrix 12 NOC - Game Over, Mafia Wins

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Ideally I'll get time to make a massive wallpost refuting the accusations and finding the proper scum but we'll see

Odds are you mislynch me anyway but I can at least leave you a road map posthumously
 
I have a Real problem with it not being Texas because it's really difficult to see where it could be anyone else

But let the man get his thoughts out if he does flip town
 
ok so i agree hawkie is super town and everyone else seems to as well

heres a tinfoil i came up with in the shower

everyone else itg seems to have removed several people from their PoE pool, most often hawkie and fort

even those in the PoE pool seem to only suspect the others in it

hawkie has been super scattered in all his votes and jumping around the board

maybe hes trying to see what mislynches will stick with the other town?

i think my biggest weak point in popcorn was i literally could not locktown anyone bc i had to get the game to f3 and i had to always be able to push the other person as scum

hawkie seems to be the person keeping his options most/widest open, on who could be lynched, possibly bc if he gets to lylo he has to be able to convince empoof it's "the other guy" which won't be hard bc >consensus town vs whoever but he still cant go from both him and empoof having locktowned someone like fort and then empoof questioning both

actually that might be ideal since i think fort has a big TR on hawkie but w/e

this is kind of weak but its the only thing i see making sense as a fringe case for "lol wtf PoE pool isnt working"

the n3 kill was then a red check that moody, probably rightfully, intuited as a green check
 
First 10 pages, I'm going to go buy groceries and I'll get back to this

I apologize in advance for the massive notification spam

Fact: Texas Cloverleaf is Town

Fact: Empoof is uncounterclaimed Town Power Role

Conclusion: One of Hawkie / LightWolf / Yeti / KnightsOfCydonia / Fort Colorcastle is the fourth scum with partners Jalmont/ Hitmonleet/ Former Hope (Ironic Double). The remaining four are town.

Order of operations

Haruno-VT D1 Lynched
Jalmont-Mafia Roleblocker N1 Killed
Walrein-Town Vigilante N1 Killed
King_-VT D2 Lynched
Hitmonleet-Mafia Goon D3 Lynched
Paperblade->Pancake-VT D4 Lynched
Josh-VT N4 Killed
Asek->rssp1-VT D5 Lynched
Former Hope->Ironic Double->Martin-Mafia OS Strongman D6 Lynched
Moodycloud-Town Jailkeeper N6 Killed


On the game

I’ll note at the start here that I’m primarily looking for posts/interactions between living players and from dead scum
Vote Paperblade


;/

First notable interaction is a Blazade RVS on Paperblade (Town) at #14

Doing RVS by gut alone feel weird.


vote Moody

Followed by Knights RVS on Moody (town) at #16

Hey


I'm à vt


meows


do not lynch aubisios or harunos

They are greatly oppressed in our society

At #30, Aubisio (Fort Colorcastle) hard claims VT and throws in a defense of haruno

Flip flopping is a silly argument. Uninformed people should update their opinions, which is usually why I like to attach some sort of confidence level to my reads.

Blazade’s second post of note is game theory commentary soft defending walrein

vote Paperblade


heya!!!!!!!!!!!

Hawkie’s first post at #38 RVSing paperblade (town)

as i was readin thru what's happened so far i was searching for how to describe how i felt about Walrein's posts and he done it for me. from a tonal standpoint i feel like he's being disingenuous because i really have no memory of him ever being this wishy-washy

Second post casts suspicion on walrein (town), follows up with #49 and switches vote to walrein at #54 which results in hawkie getting townread by walrein for the first time at #57

im sorry but what? you're lynching Asek for CREATING DISCUSSION D1? hi hello why

At #59 hawkie defends asek from jalmont’s vote, potential town defense, potential scum distancing

Well this game started with a bang.

hawkie said:
we're lynching Jalmont then Josh the town Vigilante will shoot Blazade

But this statement is just plain weird. Especially less than 6 hours after the game has started. Could just be cockyness, but it's rather unsettling to come to a conclusion like this so quickly.

Especially since theirs only 4/12 with a town vig. So the automatic assumption that there is one at all stands out as particularly insightful (especially if it's proven there is one that isn't hawkie).

Yeti This pair of posts by former hope is what drove me to think he might be the jailkeeper, former hope is the first person to jump on a setup spec post and the first person to go in that territory at all. His description of this as insightful suggests he’s placing particular meaning on it which I interpreted to mean he was looking for more information to determine which set up we were in as a jailkeeper. As it turned out this was equally applicable to the Mafia OS strongman.

Former flipping mafia does suggest a higher probability of Hawkie being town, it would be very bizarre for scum to specifically make a scum theatre just for the sake of their strongman trying to bait setup spec and claims; it makes significantly more sense for the OS strongman to jump on the inevitable town post doing the same. Former also sets up hawkie for a possible mislynch in the event a vig is impossible to be in the game.

Referenced in “On myself” is a series of post between FH/me/hawkie that are me scum reading FH town reading hakwie and FH pushing hawkie while I defend hawkie. As it is impossible for hawkie and I to be scum together the possible conclusion are as follows: Hawkie is scum distancing from scum!FH while being buddied by Town! Texas; Texas is scum distancing from scum!FH while buddying town!hawkie; or Texas and Hawkie are town pushing scum!FH.

i dont think former is scum. this situation literally played out in paranoia mafia d1 and he flipped town later on that game

However Hawkie does defend former at 108

Hitmonleet makes his entrance at 112

When you wake up to a new game and we're already out of RVS.


Some thoughts right out of the gate:


  • Josh isn't being nearly as verbose and direct as in Deathnote, which is a bit troubling.
  • Hawkie is kind of confusing to me, tbh. I've never played in a game with him/her/them before, I don't really know their meta all that much. He seems very direct and quick to make decisions, which feels somewhat towny to me (to be fair, I tend to be that way sometimes, so it might just be me seeing people play like I play and liking that).
  • Tbh, I agree with Walrein and Moody in that Texas' reasoning is pretty wierd, but I understand where he's coming from (I was recently a noobtown as well), but to me, it feels almost like he's trying to look like he's protecting Hawkie, and buddying him for fun and profit. I don't know Texas' scum meta though, so I'm not sure if it would work.
  • Aubisio still hasn't posted.
Since we lack a majority rule for today, I think I'm going to Vote Josh atm, as he's showing the most diversion from his normal meta.

Hitmonleet as we know is inexperienced and thus not likely to do scum misdirection plays. Therefore when we look at his read on hawkie we see that he is seeing hawkie as town but not wanting to commit to it. Knowing hitmonleet is scum this could be because he already knows hawkie is town but doesn’t want to lock him in with all the other town reads he’s gotten. If hitmonleet and hawkie were scum together it is highly likely hitmonleet would hard town read hawkie in order to create that consensus that would protect them both in the future and reduce the chance on one being mislynched. An experience scum might make this comment as a means to avoid being associated with each other, but we know hitmonleet isn’t experience as evidence by his waffling early reads which are more indicative of scum than town. Hitmonleet essentially follows public opinion without committing hard.

He then does the exact same thing with me, putting suspicion on each of me/josh/aubisio

Yo Hawkie after I made my second post I literally went to sleep so you can chill out lol. That said I loved you in that one NOC you were in here and it's good to see you back.


This is town Walrein. Maybe like 70% confidence since he seems to be motivated in the abstract and I haven't seen a scumgame from him in a while.


Willing to bet this is town Hawkie too, I like the balls so far.


Asek's post volume early breaks better for him on town games so like maybe 55% there.


Nothing stands out as suspicious as of yet.

Blazade at 114 is useless but throws town reads on two people who’ve flipped town and hawkie who is all but confirmed.

Not wanting to start an NOC that went to 5 pages this fast while i'm at school @.@

Let's try to wake up everyone else now that i'm awake

Lynch King_

Flyhn (yeti slot) enters at 116 with a vote on town!king

This really isn’t quotable but at 117 Aubisio makes a post soft pressuring hitmonleet. At this point all of hawkie/texas cloverleaf/aubisio have put some kind of pressure on leet. Is it more likely that one of us is mafia for starting this or all of us are town?

Haruno thinks that the only type of "not retarded" discussion is setup speculation which is just not true.


Texas (apparently) believes that his first post was meta enough that there's "one or two people" who "know" he only makes a post like that when he's town and that someone in this game has a strong town read on him as a result. wtf.


Don't really agree with paper regarding town reads: certainly it's better than doing nothing, but it's also a great way to avoid looking lazy. Giving scum reads is much better in terms of forcing people to take stands on otheers that they have to back up.


unvote vote texas can't get over how weird those two posts are lol...

This doesn’t need commentary. Keep in mind that scum!me has to be doing my initial town signalling while knowing that I was going to be getting pressure from both town and scum while also knowing I’d have to be careful about interactions with other scum AND that jalmont has to go out of his way to vote me here after pressuring me before rather than in a different direction.

The only way scum!me makes sense at this point is if the scum team decides outright at the beginning of the game for me to hard bus and hard distance everyone for town cred.

Alternatively that’s called scum hunting.

Knight’s makes some posts that are actually mind numbing and NAI

Jalmont's "vote through the stall" strat has a slight opportunism feel to it, but as long as he doesn't try to put his money where is mouth is I'm considering it null.


Waiting to hear from Josh and Texas. Josh ignoring the ping doesn't do him any favors.


I would have added Hawkie to the previous queries, but 66 has already been questioned and explained. I'm not getting pinged by the explanation, either.

Also does this though, singling out jalmont as scum!knights seems kind of weird to do here

Blazade has made some more empty posts to this point

Correct me if I'm wrong as I didnt see this amywhere. But there's no set up where a town member can automatically know which one it is right?

So ironic in hindsight

Current reads:


Lean Town: Hawkie

Null: Jalmont, Josh

Lean scum: Texas


I'm placing Josh as null right now. He's playing kinda like he wants to win by giving everyone else an aneurysm, but attitude is NAI. If he's Town, he might want to consider the benefits of actually being readable.


Until I hear from Texas, he's a scum lean. There were no indicators that other players had built any reads off his own reads and yet that's exactly what he's bragging. It comes off as trying to create your own Towncred.

Knights first reads post at 169. Odd that he nulls jalmont but mentions josh, and addresses me but ignores hawkie.

Even though you're acting like this, I don't actually feel any ill intent in this chaos. This feels more like the stereotypical kid cranked up on too much sugar than it does an attempt to spread chaos as scum.


You wrecked your chance to get my first full Townread, though.

I really hate how I can’t read knights at all

this post rubs me the wrong way. the whole confused town evaluating the situation feels really disingenuous to me. there's also a lot more to have commented on at that point than he did and he made no effort to acknowledge what else was going on the game/give his views


Vote Hitmonleet

Hawkie putting early pressure on. I seem to recall someone thinking I was scum for hard pushing leet d1?

really don't like how jalmont/texas just slung POV confirmation bias at each other, inclined to believe 1 is scum. Jalmont > Texas since all Texas did was reply

I don’t have anything to say about this I just liked it

uhhhhh I wanted your response not your vote lol. I think you're town trying to figure this game out which is why I'm engaging you. I legitimately don't understand your thought process.


Back from work, lot of weird stuff, let me take stock of it and I'll get something else out there before I go out tonight.

This is something like blazade’s 8th post in the game. He’s contributed exactly nothing at this point.

immersed in between these is knights + jalmont weirdo rqs + answer segment. Why do you ask these questions knights? Literally every answer is non alignment indicative, and its more often then not just people going to try gather free townie points. You tried to drag the game into rqs during oc noc where you were scum as well whilst I had pulled us out of that stage iirc. scummy.

Asek on Knights is basically why I have such an annoying time with him early, his posts have no substance that can be used to evaluate his position.

On myself

My first post in the game

Town read on asek for good content

Town read on hawkie for bad content

Scum read on former hope for bad content


Lynch haruno because fuck haruno and I said I'd sub out if he was in a noc again

To explain myself properly, I’ve played 3 games on mafiascum and I’ve rolled scum in all of them. Josh has read one of the games and he’s been a participant in the other. I’ve developed a reputation for being good as scum because I can make myself sound towny to those players. As scum I am significantly more cautious with my posts in attempts to avoid things coming out as scummy and I always have substantiation behind it because otherwise you die. This post intentionally and specifically does not any content within it because it is something that I would never do as scum, and this is something I expected Josh would be able to pick up on. So the first reason to do this is to signal that I’m town to him. Just as important though is what it means for him. If he knows that I’m town what it tells me is that if we approach the mid-to-late game and josh starts scum reading me he immediately loses his lock town status and I can confidently build a case on him knowing that he’s pushing someone who he (should) know to be town.

Immediately following that is jalmont’s post

The above Texas post is pretty nonsense. Like there's nothing remotely helpful in what he's said. Maybe I will switch my vote.




So what is your goal in stating that those 3 users will probably be lynched early if not to draw attention to them?> Are you not a player in this game or are you able to 1. vote in the lynch 2. affect the lynch by convincing people to vote/not vote certain players.


Good night.

Scum distancing or scum considering an easy target? You decide.

Right so. There's one or two people in this game who know my meta better than I do. There's one or two people in this game who know that my first post is the kind of post I have never made as scum. It's important for me to signal to them my alignment immediately, for multiple reasons.


My reads are legitimate, however.


its important today that theres no majority rule in place (only for today tho) so please throw your votes liberally


knights if you do your usual rqs im probably going to lynch you


This post indicates to me that asek has gone over the ruleset in detail (much more likely from town than scum) and has noticed a quirk of the rules that is beneficial to town (one that's easy to miss - I missed it), and is advocating a towny strategy (throwing votes liberally=tangible interactions with people=discussion points and info to match behaviour with throughout the game).


The rest of his posts are also tonally town.


im sorry but what? you're lynching Asek for CREATING DISCUSSION D1? hi hello why


This is a scummy post. This is not the post scum make. This is the post inexperienced town make (i.e. Hawkie). The rest of his posts match inexperienced town tones.


Well this game started with a bang.


But this statement is just plain weird. Especially less than 6 hours after the game has started. Could just be cockyness, but it's rather unsettling to come to a conclusion like this so quickly.


This reads as intentional misrepresentation of an obvious joke post, as someone attempting to cast shade quickly. It could be a pressure post and I always scum read former so this read is not as coherent as the other two.



Jalmont, how would you describe your approach this game as compared to your past noc behaviour? Do you feel you're playing a more aggro game or the same?


Haruno if you can promise me you'll try to work with town in this game I'll unvote you, I'm really tired to wading through mudslinging in nocs


Walrein, you've had the most interactions with people so far. Where do your reads stand? Is there anything you've noticed that has made you feel a certain way to a degree greater than 70% (your stated max confidence level) even if something else later changed that feeling?

This is my follow up post. I give the overview intent of the previous post and go into reads, town reading asek and hawkie and scum reading former hope.

I town read hawkie for making an over-the-top post that pushes on a weak post that is an easy target for mafia. His post is objectively scummy and therefore, not a post that a scum player is likely to make before page 100.

I scum read former hope for misrepresentations and shade throwing.

Does scum!me begin the game by bussing a teammate and town reading what would end up being the strongest town read player itg? Or is town me looking for discussion points and weirdness at sog? You decide. Let’s look for consistency in that hawkie read over time too.

I also throw out questions to players who’ve been active. In particular I question jalmont about his style of play because I’ve played with him in NOCs before, in particular ToS NOC where I subbed into the scum team with him. In the games I’ve played with jalmont he has invariably been passive and apathetic as town and more active as scum in ToS, and I want to know what he thinks about his play this game as a more aggressive jalmont could signify a different alignment than his previous town games.

followed by



What part of this reads as a joke post Texas Cloverleaf because I don't see any joking around here, he makes a claim that those two players are scum and follows up with it a few posts later, instead of a joke one post and abandoning the next or something that would imply he's not serious about it. Which is why I would be inclined to take his knowledge as a nooby scumslip potentially, or in a role where he's had a chance to figure out the matrix we're on.


I mean, okay, the josh = vig part is strange, but I still don't get the sense he's joking from those posts.

omg thanks guys!!!




i literally posted this because i knew it would stir up something or other and looks like it worked out pretty nicely

i didnt have any kind of read on jalmont or blazade, they just weren't hella active. i know there were other targets but i literally just looked at the pl and picked 2 ppl i wanted to see more from.


i don't like former's entrance but i always SR him and i think it's just due to posting style so i'm going to leave that for now

some hawkie one-liners

okay unvote, vote hawkie


Your backpedaling a ton after being called out on this, so please, feel free to go more into detail about this because I'm not buying your current excuses and useless subject baiting.

I don't think he's backpedaling

Immediately following is some interaction between me/FH/hawkie that results in me defending hawkie from an early push from FH. At this point hawkie is solidly into the town read category for the early game while FH is sitting south of scummy and I want to ensure the town read isn’t coming under d1 fire.

Couple quick notes before I catch up


Scum lean on hitmonleet, his post was empty and super easy to make as scum


Josh is playing to his meta. Not a meta seen on smogon, but his meta. Unfortunately he plays the same meta as either alignment so meta reads don't help much


Paperblade I feel like the reasons for the things I said should be clear? Town have a greater incentive to read the rules closely to make sure they know what's going on and to know set ups and what have you. Scum already tend to know a number of things from their roles and have more incentive to coast if they can be filled in by their scumbuddies. Asek doing so increases the probability he breaks town. Then he goes further and identifies a small rule change and advocates a non obvious voting strategy based on that beneficial to town. Why would scum!asek want to identify something that works against his team? Most likely, he doesn't


Idk why my buddying hawkie is surprising, he's a town read being pushed by a scum read, I don't want him lynched today

My next post at #189. Comment on hitmonleet is in reference to http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/matrix-12-noc-day-7.3602966/page-8#post-7342260]182[/url]. This is where I first explain what I was doing with hawkie.

Vote jalmont


I asked earlier, how would you describe your playstyle this game as compared to previous nocs? The same? More aggro? More passive?

At #195 I follow up on my earlier questions to Jalmont. Note that at this point I’m expressly scumreading two members of the scum team within the first 200 posts of the game. To quote the other section, the only way scum!me makes sense at this point is if the scum team decides outright at the beginning of the game for me to hard bus and hard distance everyone for town cred.

Comfortable with an asek/hawkie/josh townpile to start working with

Oh hey look at that two conf!towns and the strongest town read itg

Jalmonts posts have been scummy to me and I'd like to see more pressure there


Would be down for a lynch on him or hitmonleet so far today

Like for real though

you know you have a scumchat you can talk to your teammates in right?

Did your teammates coach you to that post?

Let me repeat, the only way scum!me makes sense at this point is if the scum team decides outright at the beginning of the game for me to hard bus and hard distance everyone for town cred.

This is 214 posts into the game and I’ve simultaneously scum read hitmonleet, scum read former hope, and voted jalmont, while giving town reads to hawkie/josh/asek and not having seen much of anything in the rest of the playerbase.

unvote vote texas




"pov confirmation bias"

D1 mutual bussing!!!
 
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