NOC Matrix 12 NOC - Game Over, Mafia Wins

[Yeti]

former hopes MO is setup spec so i get where you were coming from but i also think you read too much into him jumping on that

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

the point in the game that i noticed that was during the time ID was bussing hitmonleet, once I saw FHs posts I thought ID had a guilty on leet

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

which will come out if i get that far in the posts

 

[FortColors]

I'm bored and not sure how much this will help but permutations combinations are fun imotbh

Alive Players.
1. Hawkie
3. Blazade->Lightwolf
5. KnightsofCydonia
13. Texas Cloverleaf
14. Flyhn->Ullar->Yeti
15. Aubisio->Da Letter El->Fort Colorcastle
17. shubaka17->Empoof

there's 35 possible combinations here

1. hawkie - lightwolf - knights
2. hawkie - lightwolf - texas
3. hawkie - lightwolf - yeti
4. hawkie - lightwolf - fort
5. hawkie - lightwolf - empoof
6. hawkie - knights - texas
7. hawkie - knights - yeti
8. hawkie - knights - fort
9. hawkie - knights - empoof
10. hawkie - texas - yeti
11. hawkie - texas - fort
12. hawkie - texas - empoof
13. hawkie - yeti - fort
14. hawkie - yeti - empoof
15. hawkie - fort - empoof
16. lightwolf - knights - texas
17. lightwolf - knights - yeti
18. lightwolf - knights - fort
19. lightwolf - knights - empoof
20. lightwofl - texas - yeti
21. lightwolf - texas - fort
22. lightwolf - texas - empoof
23. lightwolf - yeti - fort
24. lightwolf - yeti - empoof
25. lightwolf - fort - empoof
26. knights - texas - yeti
27. knights - texas - fort
28. knigths - texas - empoof
29. knights - yeti - fort
30. knights - yeti - empoof
31. knights - fort - empoof
32. texas - yeti - fort
33. texas - yeti - empoof
34. texas - fort - empoof
35. yeti - fort - empoof

read the disclaimer below first

For scum!hawkie, he'd probably want me + anyone but empoof basically
For scum!lightwolf, idk what would be best for him
For scum!knights, he won't make it to lylo-HE BETTER NOT-but he'd probably be best with like yeti and texas maybe?
For scum!texas, he'd probably be best off having knights + me make it to lylo so he could just have me kill knights. but otherwise I think he's be best with lightwolf + knights? maybe?
For scum!yeti, she'd probably want anyone but like hawkie and texas iirc they scumread her?
For scum!me, having people who post less + empoof would be best because empoof townreads me iirc and such
For scum!empoof, basically any situation where the real BPV doesn't claim is advantageous

disclaimer: I don't friggin know what's I'm doing or saying. I made the possibilities thing and I didn't know where to go from there so I just took my impressions of peoples' reads/relationships and brought them out here
if they're wrong its not my fault well it is but ITS NOT MUH FAULT
I'm drunk on water and practice sat subject tests

but honestly if anyone cc's empoof seriously I will probably lynch the heck out of empoof. instantly.

------------------------------------------

oh yeah mfw texas ISOs himself lmao

 

[Hawkie]

i hard townread yeti after rereading hitmonleet

 

[FortColors]

see! I'm wrong already
I will go continue to be drunk on water and practice tests

 

[Yeti]

ive been waiting for like texas or hawkie to flip as the actual bpv cause they TR empoof so hard they let him claim their role and then everyone just goes hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhuh

 

[Empoof]

If anyone CC's me at this point they're mafia or trolling

I claimed at a spot where "the real" BPV would go 1 for 1 with aftermath being only 1 scum left alive.

ya fart

 

[Empoof]

ive been waiting for like texas or hawkie to flip as the actual bpv cause they TR empoof so hard they let him claim their role and then everyone just goes hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhuh

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

For scum!texas, he'd probably be best off having knights + me make it to lylo so he could just have me kill knights. but otherwise I think he's be best with lightwolf + knights? maybe?

if you think this what do you think about me having lightwolf --> knights --> you as my lynch order

 

[FortColors]

if you think this what do you think about me having lightwolf --> knights --> you as my lynch order

well you'd want scummy people with you right? so they'd go for each other?

 

[FortColors]

actually I didn't even think about your lynch order when I made that list lmao
it's absolutely coincidental that your preferred lylo goes 3rd -> 2nd -> 1st in your lynch order LOL

 

[FortColors]

"your preferred lylo" being what I thought it would be off the top of my head for scum!texas

 

[Hawkie]

fort try not to get urself lynched now pls

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

11 through 20

Fact: Texas Cloverleaf is Town

Fact: Empoof is uncounterclaimed Town Power Role

Conclusion: One of Hawkie / LightWolf / Yeti / KnightsOfCydonia / Fort Colorcastle is the fourth scum with partners Jalmont/ Hitmonleet/ Former Hope (Ironic Double). The remaining four are town.

Order of operations

Haruno-VT D1 Lynched
Jalmont-Mafia Roleblocker N1 Killed
Walrein-Town Vigilante N1 Killed
King_-VT D2 Lynched
Hitmonleet-Mafia Goon D3 Lynched
Paperblade->Pancake-VT D4 Lynched
Josh-VT N4 Killed
Asek->rssp1-VT D5 Lynched
Former Hope->Ironic Double->Martin-Mafia OS Strongman D6 Lynched
Moodycloud-Town Jailkeeper N6 Killed


On the game

Hide

http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/matrix-12-noc-day-7.3602966/page-11#post-7342722]252[/url] is ullar’s first contribution to the game in yeti’s slot, immediately attacks king

I'm not really reading a lot into the Big Dick Ego Shit that's been popping up in a few posts here or there. It's an attitude thing and it helps more in reading the players who react than the confident players.


Important points:


-Former and Hawkie argue in a way which reads like bickering over play and semantics which in my experience is TvT. I've seen this consistently from Former too (Former and Haruno in Bulletproof, Former and Moody in Popcorn, Former and me in Town of Salem, Former and I think Haruno again in Neighborhood)


-Way too many people taking stupid shit on setup spec seriously. The scum get a hell of a lot more info on what the setup is (would be more readable if this actually was a matrix like on MU lol) so that kind of confusion reads uninformed.


-Texas is acting really towny right now, exactly the kind of content and pushes I want to see from him. I still think he could have a really good scumgame and surprise me, but his performance as Percival gives me more confidence he'd betray himself as scum.


Reads:


People I think I can usually read pretty well at this point:


Texas - solid townread

KnightsofCydonia - acted really squeamish as scum in Deathnote and I'm looking for that and not seeing much. lean-town 55% confidence.

shubaka17 - Like the energy, like their line of thinking, even if I can't understand it. Please tell me WHY you think Asek is scum because I disagree and want to talk about it. townread 60%

MoodyCloud - Nice empty posts. Not a lot of content, and I'm watching you because I think you'll get me like Yeti did with the sleeper scumgame hiding in your scummy towngame. lean scum 55% confidence cause no content means variable reads.


People who I may never read well without substantial evidence on future days:


Josh - straight null here. All I see is a bunch of shit getting slung.

Walrein - Like I said I like the tone, I like the start. Not much has changed since yesterday and it's still a strong town.

Asek - Same as yesterday, not really seeming to hang back and just says what's on his mind. lean town

Paperblade - I read some past NOCs with him in it and he was scum, but that was years ago. Bickers with Texas in what I feel is TvT though, maybe a bit softer. lean town with not much confidence behind it.

Haruno - Guess I'll just wait for the quality melt to break the ice on the null read. Or see his eventual fake claim which is certain from either alignment.


People I feel I might be starting to get tells on but they either don't have enough scumgames or I've been wrong enough before to be wary:


-Former Hope willing to bet this is town at like 60% confidence

-Hitmonleet I don't like his content much and the play's looking like it's somewhere in confidence between deathnote and popcorn (S-T) maybe more confident scum? lean scum 60%

-Hawkie - I said before I liked the balls, still true. I think I read somewhere that Hawkie knows his shit so if that's true I'll be wary but not till way later. Strong town.

-Jalmont - I don't fucking know what's going on with Jalmont this game. I'm reminded of the time he rolled scum in ToS and just started lynching me and shit with his stuff on Asek and I think as town he'd be more apathetic. Lean scum 55% because D1 Jalmont doesn't give a fuck about D1


People who fucking idle i don't even know what to do with you fools you read the same goddam way every game:


-King - Hasn't this D1 lynch been played? I can't fucking read king and have in separate cases misdefended, mislynched, lynched correctly, and defended him correctly all for the wrong reasons.

-aubisio - People townread this but I'll never forget basic game. He's not excluded from my lynch pool.

-Flyhn --> Ullar - Quit alluding that we're all shitheads and do something productive.


Today I don't Lynch: Former, Walrein, Hawkie, Asek, Texas, Josh, shub.


vote moody cloud let's get that ball rolling

The first real content from blazade (lightwolf)

Puts in town reads on me, former, and hawkie, and says…remarkably little else of actual substance

Asek


RQS/Nullmont: Jalmont's anti-discussion comment caught my eye and warranted further scrutiny, so I engaged him to get a better read on him. At first it seemed like a potential scumtell, but- having gotten him to elaborate- now I think would only be so if he actually tries to tuck a vote into a stalled day. Without action tied to it, it's just half-formed lip service imo.


Hawkie:

I think I can see where Hawkie was coming from. #101 reads like #66 was supposed to be a reaction test.


Josh: When Josh claimed, I thought he might be VT trying to draw tonight's NK away from PRs, hence "noble gambit". Then he continues by tossing out more results than an actual cop would have gotten on D1. His behavior in this game has been bouncing from confusing to frustrating to disappointing, really hard for me to read. I did lose my cool, but I'm not going to let that happen again. However, I'm worried that if he's Town, scum are going to save him for LyLo/MyLo to try and cash in on the chaos.

#262 coouulllld be a protection of jalmont?

Aubisio successively town reads asek and blazade in 265 and 266 without reasoning. With an asek flip this makes fort slot look better

Contribution from ullar

hi sry


i disagree with the current lynch on king_; it's just him taking everything personally and being a general high-falutin oaf, which is tbh NAI


josh is being whatever the fuck he is; im a little wary of his tunneling, but eh, whats new


texas im not sure about tbh; he's looking for read substantiation, but im not sure how much is behind it. null for now


walrein seems towny to me imho; he's contributing and being his walrein-y self


i like asek, he's holdin folks accountable


Knights is being his usual self, hard to get a read on atm


haruno should seriously re-evaluate the choices in his life that led him to this playstyle on internet mafia; he's frustratingly hard to read as a result (which is maybe good? idk?)


pblade hasnt contributed overmuch beyond counterpoints, but iirc thats his usual playstyle; he may be tryna slip underneath the radar tho


blazade is sensitive like i wasnt even talking about you??? lol i kinda like him as town tho


aubitchio


jalmont i dont remember enough of his posts tbh


shuBADGUY (actually idk, i think he's playin fairly towny atm)

\

fuck im realizing these are a lot of townreads


hawkie im not sure tbh; this seems similar to what i recall of your past playstyles, but smth feels off. ill elaborate when i nail down words; maybe its how he swooped on leet and others too easily? idk?


tbh id wouldnt like a fh lynch; he takes shit far too seriously, and is prob confusedtown imo.


im sure there are folks ive missed, but i think ive covered all the important stuff


vote hawkie i rly dont like where youve been swinging your vote; its a little too easy for you for my liking, and im wary of those who place you in a conftown pile

this is interesting, doesn’t seem like there’s much reason for scum!ullar to be throwing around town reads with impunity and him going away from the king lynch is interesting, knowing he flips town and knowing the eventual wagons are ullar and haruno suggests a higher probability of yeti!town

Ok, life (and my FATE campaign) has finally stopped being a problem, so now I have the time to make a big post.


First, I'm going to make a quick thoughts post:

Asek - Gut Town due to how he's using a lot of evidence in his posts. I don't exactly think his support off King as a lynch is the best idea, but given his reason for actually doing it, I'm inclined to think he's probably town trying to get people to discuss and debate.


Josh - He's still posting really short posts and one-liners, which just feels kind of odd to me, what with how I'm used to seeing him play. Scumlean.


Jalmont & Aubisio - Who? Where did these guys go? Do they even have the minimum 5 posts? (Ignore the fact that I haven't made 5 posts yet)


Hawkie - I really don't know with this guy. He's pretty confident and aggressive in his thoughts, which is exactly how I'd expect Josh to be. He might be coached, but that's really unlikely, imo. Null, scumread if Josh is scum.


Blazade - I don't know his meta either, which makes me a bit confused as to what to read him. His posts are a bit aggressive and demeaning, which, unlike Hawkie, rub me the wrong way. He does bring up valid points tho. Gut Scum.


Texas - He's pointing things out, and although his rationale does have me a bit bemused atm, I'm feeling a bit confident in him being Town.


Ullar - Is Ullar. Gut Ullar, aka ??????


Haruno - He's like he normally plays. I get how people scumread him for it out of policy, but I think this Haruno is town. I watched him play scum in OCNOC, and this is subtly different. He isn't aggressively pushing something specific, he's spreading the love. Town Lean.


Former Hope - In just about every game I'm in, I manage to somehow clash with FH over something over a misunderstanding, so gut town atm. His actual posts are, honestly, not too memorable to me.


King - I want to say this is Town!King, I honestly do. His more meme-y types of posts and one-liners are prevalent in the thread, and he's being active, at the least. Town Lean.


Paperblade - Paperblade is paperblade. I really haven't found anything that stands out to me (I literally can't remember any contributions he's made to discussion, but I might have just missed it). It makes me think he's trying to mostly just pass by in the night without being scrutinized. Scumlean.


Knights - He's trying. He's bringing up topics, making reads, and overall playing like I'd expect him to play. Plus, he hasn't tried to RQS! *Town*.


Moody - Another person who I honestly can't remember too well. Null.


Anyways, it's late over here, so I'll be back in the morning, and talk about:

• Asek
• Hawkie
• The King lynch
• Why Josh sux (jkjk)
• Anything I'm forgetting

Hitmonleet post

Nulls jalmont, gut towns former

Nulls hawkie, towns me, gut scums blazade, towns knights

I don’t think anything here is alignment indicative, maybe indicating scum blazade to balance the reads on his scum buddies but that’s a stretch and a half

Leet is pushing josh in the interim showing he’ll push town

Knights subsequently suspects paperblade

I'm really surprised to see some confident townreads on King here and I'm not really sure where the confidence is coming from. I guess the same goes for the confident scumreads. All the townreads read very white knighty and the scumreads read very grudge/policy lynch oriented. It puts me off.


Paperblade I don't think he *quite* claimed VT so pointlessly and early but he definitely did as he was getting lynched on a hair trigger and I don't read as much into that statement as you do. Like I get that you see that as an indicator but I just can't bring myself to feel the same way on the issue.


Hitmonleet's post is passable for now. Things are getting interesting.


unvote


I'll be back later tonight to reevalute and make a push.

This is interesting. The King wagon had reached full height by this point and had begun to deconstruct as people started town reading king. Blazade tries to stop that momentum and keep the lynch on him while defending hitmonleet (in comparison to everyone else)

Ullar and king definitely get into bitchfights here like yeti has been saying, also with hawkie

OK so out of all this garbage I am most in agreement with Hawkie's assessment on Ullar. His reads are empty and void of definite pushes.


This doesn't mean I wouldn't lynch King though, I've seen zero productivity coming from that slot but that's NAI. Paperblade, you're wrong though, it doesn't get better.


Asek tone reads well as scum, I get scared of it sometimes, but right now he is downright Hotheaded. I don't think I've seen that yet out of his scumgame so I'm bumping him up to a definite townread at like 60%.

+1 for the pushes reaffirming king (town) and ullar

Yo I have a life shubaka I'm not gonna be here all the time. That's gonna get even worse next week when I'm away so idk what to tell you lol.


Vote Ullar


There's more teeth here than in any other lynch imo. I hate everyone townreading king, hate everyone scumreading king, and can't read king. I will get literally nothing out of that lynch. People have kind of ignored this option, though, and I think there's good reasoning behind it.


Also willing to lynch: Moody (for his main content being shitty white knight defense of king), Hitmonleet (for his lackluster but possibly busy content that I had to pry out of him), King (because regardless of the above there is no real defense for his behavior and content), aubisio (straight up policy), Haruno (suspicious drop off in content for him)

Merp

Turns out blazade is the teeth behind the ullar wagon, who would have thought?

His other lynch pile includes 4 town and 1 scum

Ullar maybe, Haruno maybe, King no.


The problem with King is y'all are drowning him in vinegar and not even trying to reach for the honey. The conversation I had with him seemed genuine. Paranoia's popped up and said "but what if he was coached?" Gut and Head both say Paranoia's being stupid. Someone would have had to be following along in realtime and King would have had to split his attention between two conversations without making the public one stilted and awkward. The conversation seems natural, both in content and timing/flow.


Ullar's got a good eye for personalities, but he's shoved all his reads into a single pile and left a vote from his predecessor riding.


I think Haruno over Ullar for the lynch, because Haruno keeps harping on the importance of something that can only amount to navel gazing without a flip to work off.


My read on Paper feels weaker today.

Hard defense of king looks good here pre-flip

Ullar does some more towny stuff

DLE with the hard defend of king (town) and subsequent save on ullar is almost only possible with a yeti team which obviously can’t be the case, huge town eyes here

On myself

Hide

I feel like I want to scum read jalmont but I don't, I think he just seemed scummy because he thinks I'm scum


I feel like I want to town read blazade but I don't, getting town read feels good maaan!


Asek Josh Hawkie


I think we should take advantage of the lack of majority and start talking about who we want to lynch now, make sure there's no late bs town wagons or a scum stealth vote into no lynch. Who are you guys thinking atm?

Hawkie want to explain to me why I’d come out and be hard bussing all three flipped scum and then roll back on jalmont?

Vote Hitmonleet


Commit to some opinions on people.

Blazade with a d1 push on hitmonleet

Hawkie really all I want to prove here is that I was far from the only person pushing leet d1 so the argument that I was bussing him from d1 is really really weak as a push on me

King slot will sort itself out over time tbh, he has made remarks that can easily be reread to determine his alignment (same logic as knights). The lynch on him is lazy


unvote, vote hitmonleet


Leet has far fewer posts and the two posts he has are bad (blazade has probably covered this, because he is not dicking around with secret messages). Unlike King, there's a real attempt to look like he's contributing in those 2 posts, but it's all safe and easy and he doesn't really come to any conclusions. This combined with his low post count (TWO) means it's unlikely we ever get enough interactions on him to be meaningful unless he turns up today. This is a good D1 lynch

Oh hey another town who pushed leet d1

This is why my vote is on Knights atm


I think I buy DLEs argument about King's lack of agenda, his posts have come off completely as resigned town and I'm not confident this is our best lynch today. Grateful for the wagon though, it's given us information to work with (Moody, this is the entire point of building and deconstructing wagons)


Still willing to vote in Knights/Leet/King and I'll give my vote to an Ullar wagon if necessary to prevent a possible tie vote


On that note, Walrein Jalmont Hawkie Hitmonleet Ullar MoodyCloud KnightsofCydonia Shubaka Haruno Josh Asek Paperblade King_ it's time to lock your vote in on your best wagon of choice

This is post-dle stuff, idc you can decide if its scummy or towny to defend king (town) here

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

so far i've confirmed hawkie as town and yeti as town

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

why am i even doing this its literally getting me to the same place in reads i already was

town: empoof texas yeti hawkie fort

scum: one of blazade and knights

probably blazade

scumteam former hope / blazade / hitmonleet / jalmont

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

most of the posts in 11-20 are from dead town so that was fun to skip through

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Knights has a good King read but barely has any reads on anyone other than Josh/Jalmont/Texas. It's like he's ignoring half the game and it's really disconcerting.

(and his Pblade read is pretty characteristic of Pblade as both alignments imo, but it's a decent thought)

He strikes me as kind of detached as well? But it's the sort of detached that could either be scum struggling to fake it or relatively uninvested town.

The issue is that some of his reads (the King read and the Pblade read, for example) are the sort of reads that I feel like it would be really hard to fake as scum. He's not doing a ton of solving, but when he is he seems to be using townie thought processes to do so.

I don't think I lynch this today either. I think if he continues to struggle to generate reads on the vast majority of the game we return to this, but I think this resolves itself later and we can make better use of our time today.

Walrein on why knights looks scummy but thinks like town

I won't lynch him today but I took a look at the voting histories and paper's comes off as very opportunistic. FoS here

My first suspicion of the paperblade slot (pancake lynch)

I'm going to miss my 10k with this game, i feel you

seeing as this actually happened i'll be very mad if we lose

Y'all kept pressuring King even though it obviously wasn't working. I got readable content from him by engaging in discussion with him and players put on blinders and cry scum.

I got more reads formed on D1 than I usually do, so I can die satisfied if it comes to that. But I don't want see you guys playing the Kingmeme again and shrugging it off if he flips Town.

Didn't like ad hominemish wagon justification when it was used on players over at Kong, don't like it here.

This seems very towny in retrospect

also pick a wagon and place a vote, parking a no vote is anti-town

hi former hope and hitmonleet

interesting thought from my paper FoS, he has a post in #276 that resists a knight's wagon which i agreed with at the time, looks like it could be buddying in hindsight

reinforcing that i was suspecting paperblade well in advance of his lynch in d4

hitmonleet being seen viewing the thread after being tagged and then not engaging doesn't sit well with me at all

don't like haruno's vote sitting on asek, he has no incentive for it to not be ullar and this looks way too much like him sitting back for the opportunity to stealth the tie lynch based on "im just defending myself" which he also did in ocnoc during the attempted triple lynch

Da Letter El im sorry that this is an inconvenient time for you but your vote still needs to be placed somewhere to have any value

objectively speaking i have to imagine that using a thing that apparently only mods can do (see someone online who is hiding their status) is a little far to go if youre bussing a partner

asek hawkie if you guys are willing we could possibly get hitmonleet roped

objectively speaking i have to think actively pushing a wagon on your scum partner at end of day chaos is actively against your win con as scum

I'm pretty inclined to think both are the same alignment atm

huh i had totally forgotten i had thought this of haruno/ullar once yeti subbed in

I think walrein just townslipped

oh balls I think i got walrein killed.

and eod1

Votecount
Haruno (7): Walrein, Jalmont, KnightsofCydonia, King_, Da Letter El, Ullar, Texas Cloverleaf
Ullar (5): Hawkie, Blazade, Asek, Moodycloud, Haruno
Asek (1): Shubaka
King_ (1): Paperblade
Hitmonleet (1): Josh
Josh (1): Hitmonleet

Not Voting (1): Former Hope

if we assume that i was correct with my one scum on each major wagon then blazade is scum

if blazade is not scum you have to agree that ullar wagon and push was all town

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

i can do more if y'all want but i'm not sure there's much more to say

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

i'll also note that you have to assume mafia needed two scum on the wagon in order to lynch haruno of all people

 

[Hawkie]

my vote is never moving especially because he just tried to say hitmonleet's reads post wasn't alignment indicative and i think it's quite the contrary

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

hawkie idc what you do with your vote just don't lose us the game with conf biased tunnels on the next two lynches

 

[Yeti]

texas are you cool with the next two lynches being lightwolf and knights in some order?

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

yes