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May Usage Predictions

RaikouLover

is a Contributor Alumnus
I wanted to try something new this month and open up a thread a few days before usage statistics went up to discuss predictions and ponder the following questions.

What general changes to the metagame have occured this month from your observations?

In my shoddy escapades, I have noticed that the same team structure is occuring on nearly every team now more than ever. Garchomp, Tyranitar, Celebi, Heatran, Bronzong and some variation seems to be every other team. The metagame is completely centralized in sandstorm teams, and everyone is using Celetran as the new standard combo. I've also observed an influx in toxic spikes usage as a whole.

Who seems to be the big gainers?

I've been appaled this month at the alarming Celebi usuage. It is rare that I don't find a team with Celebi, so I predict a nice rise from last month. As stated in my note about toxic spikes, I expect roserade to be OU this month. I've also noticed a lot of people trying the new Empoleon SubPetaya set.

Who seems to be fading into memories...?

Last month I saw Alakazam and Gallade at the tail end of OU. I can't even remember encountering a Gallade this month. I predict it may drop off OU.

What general trends have you noticed?

I leave this one for you guys...

Feel free to discuss!
 
My predictions:
  • Gyarados goes to #3 in weighted usages, Blissey goes down to #4.
  • Celebi rises to #12 or #13, Metagross goes down to #14 or #15.
  • Zapdos enters top 20, Weavile leaves top 20.
  • Milotic strengthens position to #32 or #33, Yanmega weakens position to #36 or #37.
  • Deoxys-S slides outside what is considered OU (rank is more than around #47) come July. So does Kingdra.
  • Alakazam and Charizard improve their positions, becoming strong contenders for OU come July.
This is based just from the trends from previous months, as I haven't played on Shoddy during this month.
 
I agree with the increase in Celebi's flying around they seem to be in every other game I play.

I think Swampert will drop a place or two, I seldom see him on the ladder.

Every team ever seems to have Bronzong OR Garchomp can't remember the last game I played without one of them. So I think Garchomp will stay #1.

Lastly I've noticed a huge increase in the amount of Togekiss, particularly NPTogkisses around. I predict it going up 2-3 places.
 
I predict a surge in usage in most defensive pokeys. This includes Celebi, Cresselia, Zapdos, and Bronzong might also incerase in usage.

Can't forget about Steelix and Drapion, who are in almost every UU team I've encountered so far.
 
It might be a fluke, but I've been seeing quite a few lead Floatzels lately. It wouldn't surprise me to see him climb into the top 35 in leads. That said, I've battled a lot less rain dance teams, so maybe Kingdra dropping a bit.
 
roserade zapdos and celebi to get boosts ;D

aka the pokes im using on my new team ;D

lax, loom and machamp to suffer a decrease in use e__e`
 
Some general changes I've seen:
I see more Wobbuffet's than I did before, possibly people are beginning to accept it more. I also feel that Deoxys-S usage is rising, although not significantly, but rising none-the-less. I also agree that teams are becoming very predictable with the Tyranitar, Garchomp, Celetran, Bronzong, random guy structure. Every team appears to have Celebi on it now, it's becoming slightly annoying to be honest. Roserade leads are going up, I think, the Focus-Sash-Toxic Spikes lead but outside of that I've never seen a Roserade with a different set. She'll probably be OU next month. I find the recently bumped OU's Gallade and Kingdra almost non-existent. I think the fad behind them has died, they'll probably be BL. I think I've seen a decreased usage in Gyarados but I could be wrong. It seems he doesn't appear on nearly as many teams as he once did. Same goes for Hippowdon, Tyranitar is the favorite for getting the Sandstorm started now.

Big Gainers:
I predict Celebi will go up as will Roserade. I predict probably Tyranitar will take the #2 spot in leading behind Bronzong, I seem to see a lot of T-Tar leads now. I actually think there might be a slight increase in Deoxys-S usage but maybe not. I've also noticed more teams carrying Magnezone, possibly a response to Bronzong becoming the number 1 lead last month?

Fading Away:
I agreed with RaikouLover that Gallade's usage has fallen. I think Gyarados usage has decreased a bit too. While I still see a good number of Starmie's I think the usage behind them has dropped a little.

General Trends:
This may sound confusing but I think teams are tending to "defensive offense" what I mean by this is that teams are using offensive threats that still are defensively strong. For instance, Celetran. Both Celebi and Heatran, by playing on resistances, can be defensively very good but also have great offensive capabilities. This is what I mean. I think teams are leading more towards this style rather than all out offense or all out defense, but somewhere in between.
 
Gyarados/Lucario, Heatran, Celebi, TTar, Chomp, Bronzong, Zapdos, Gengar all stay or increase their positions as every team has this core maybe +/- a couple of these guys. Blissey takes a drop - Ive been featuring a team to abuse of the lack of good special walls going around on teams(aka most anything outside of blissey) and got a couple accounts up into the top 100 this past week without much too much effort (shoddy rankings don't represent much, but still a positive sign at least)

I have seen slightly more azelf's and for good reason - Azelf uses Nasty Plot! - HP Fighting, Flamethrower, Psychic attacking Azelf's can easily sweep that core of TTar, Celebi, Heatran (depending on the build it can OHKO with HP Fighting or if previous damage has been done), Chomp, Bronzong, Zapdos, etc. core teams - I can't believe more people haven't caught onto him though - but then again scarfed heatrans, chomps, ttars have been running wild on these centralized teams and can end an Azelf run if you don't know its scarfed already. Also, the Adamant, Life Orb, 252 Attack ExSpeed from Lucario can do 50-60% or so to Azelf and can end your sweep too. Either way I featured him to pretty good success on one of my teams and expect more to catch on soon that want to beat those "cookie cutter" teams.

Ive been spamming wobbuffet on every one of my teams and noticed a few more than I usually do - I think (hope) its usage will increase this month.
 
I see less Gyarados now, but I hate Celebi and Zapdos, which had increased a lot in my opinion. I didn't see a Rhyperior or Aerodactyl in the whole month, so I suppose that it will decrease their usage even more. I don't really see Azelf or PorigonZ, and there is less Blisseys around, so I don't understand it. Furthermore, things like Staraptor or Yanmega have decreased their leader usage too, while Tyranitar and Gengar will increase more and more...
 
Hmm....
  • With everyone running an Electric move on their lead, Gyarados drops down even further in leads and general usage. Still high-OU, like in the teens.
  • Empoleon rises a little bit. Not OU, but a little bit. I've actually seen one or two.
  • Garchomp levels off, staying exactly the same, while Blissey goes down a tiny bit for no good reason since nearly every team should probably have a Blissey.
  • Lucario goes up, again, to the top 5.
  • Cloyster sees a moderate rise in usage, still UU.
  • Deoxys-S and Wobbuffet rise up a bit, to the 30s or so.
  • Celebi keeps going up, Jirachi keeps going down
  • Shaymin goes down a little, Clamperl goes up a little but will drop by June
  • Bronzong gets #4
Eh, that's all I guess.
 
The big ups:

Bronzong lead with lum berry is extremely common nowadays. Wobb is sadly on every other team. Celebi and Zapdos are friggin huge. Deoxys-S is the best cleaner ever and its popularity is showing. Roserade is a bit more common. Raikou use is on the rise. Vaporeon seems to be the most common water as of late. Steelix will jump a shitload of points but not to a super high level.

The small ups:

CM/sub Mismagius is just plain disgusting and people are just now starting to catch on, so its usage might increase. I see more Rotoms as of late, probably because of the immunities, and the trick set says "get hit fast and hard or have a wall trickchoiced". It's on every one of my teams and I play a hell of a lot, so its usage will definitely increase a little. Moltres use is increasing, no clue why. People are also experimenting nowadays, so I see more of stuff like Lopunny, Gastrodon, Hypno and Primeape in standard.

The downs:

Although I have no idea why, i've definitely been seeing less of Gyarados. Metagross is less common now, that type coverage is lame and Jirachi will take its slot nine times out of ten. Swampert for sure, it just isn't all that good anymore. Crobat can do some nice things, but it's become tough to fill a slot with him and i'm seeing it less. I see literally zero Slowbro nowadays; i think people liked using it because it's 'new' but it never was all that useful. Lucario's popularity is a very bad thing for Snorlax who is easily defeated by it if it isn't packing EQ.

The coming trends:

Fire-packing leads with u-turn such as azelf and infernape to counter the zong lead and the wobb switch-in, and a ghost to u-turn to so wobb can't counter; many further metagame changes to deal with Wobb; an increase in electrics due to Swampert's fall from grace (we're already seeing this).
 
Mesprit will rise like 4 places. I am seeing these a lot more often and have started using one myself as it actually counters hippo, gyarados, mamoswine, among others as well as lay rocks.

I see alakazam getting a few bumps.

And expect sunkern to rise after my long usage of him this month >;)

Oh and crobat goes to finally hit OU...
 
Gastrodon use is definitely going up, and not just from me. I've seen him on a couple other active teams.

Mismagius is going to go up too. CM/Sub is definitely going to see more love.
 
I forgot about Jynx, it will rise from 160 to top 100, I'm quite sure... it's a good Gengar, Garchomp, Salamence or Dragonite revenge killer with an Scarf, so it OHKO's with Ice Beam and Psychic, and can hurt Weavile and Tyranitar with Focus Blast. We shouldn't forget Luna or Perish Trapper...
 
I've seen a fair share of Zapdoses and Milotics, I predict a rise of at least a few spots for them. Donphan has seemed to survive the decreasing trend, as I have seen a good deal of them, more than I expected. On the other hand, Dusknoir and Weezing are losing favorability as walls.

The standard shit Chomp/Tar/Celebi/Heatran/Gyara/Bronzong is really getting boring to play. I predict a surge in DD Tyranitar usage, as he is nearly uncounterable unless they carry Gliscor, and even that is beaten by Ice Beam DD Tars.

Mamoswine is going to continue his rise to fame, I've been seeing him on more teams (including my own). Wobbuffet usage will also rise. On the contrary, I haven't been seeing many stallers like Skarmbliss or Cresselia. I think the metagame has shifted towards a balanced bulky sweeper team.
 
Rai said:
The big ups:

Bronzong lead with lum berry is extremely common nowadays. Wobb is sadly on every other team. Celebi and Zapdos are friggin huge. Deoxys-S is the best cleaner ever and its popularity is showing. Roserade is a bit more common. Raikou use is on the rise. Vaporeon seems to be the most common water as of late. Steelix will jump a shitload of points but not to a super high level.

The small ups:

CM/sub Mismagius is just plain disgusting and people are just now starting to catch on, so its usage might increase. I see more Rotoms as of late, probably because of the immunities, and the trick set says "get hit fast and hard or have a wall trickchoiced". It's on every one of my teams and I play a hell of a lot, so its usage will definitely increase a little. Moltres use is increasing, no clue why. People are also experimenting nowadays, so I see more of stuff like Lopunny, Gastrodon, Hypno and Primeape in standard.

The downs:

Although I have no idea why, i've definitely been seeing less of Gyarados. Metagross is less common now, that type coverage is lame and Jirachi will take its slot nine times out of ten. Swampert for sure, it just isn't all that good anymore. Crobat can do some nice things, but it's become tough to fill a slot with him and i'm seeing it less. I see literally zero Slowbro nowadays; i think people liked using it because it's 'new' but it never was all that useful. Lucario's popularity is a very bad thing for Snorlax who is easily defeated by it if it isn't packing EQ.

The coming trends:

Fire-packing leads with u-turn such as azelf and infernape to counter the zong lead and the wobb switch-in, and a ghost to u-turn to so wobb can't counter; many further metagame changes to deal with Wobb; an increase in electrics due to Swampert's fall from grace (we're already seeing this).
Click to expand...
I've been using Stall Moltres on my team. It actually surprised me at how good it worked. It switches in easily on a lot of stuff, and getting a substitute up isn't too hard. It's pretty cool how it Pressure stalls Blissey too.
 
RaikouLover said:
I've been appaled this month at the alarming Celebi usuage. It is rare that I don't find a team with Celebi, so I predict a nice rise from last month.
Click to expand...

lol and just when I was going to try using Celebi as a support poke on my test team...great minds think alike?
 
I think Gallade will be BL, cause I have not seen one in a month or so.
Bronzong and Cressy went up for sure as well.
Tyranitar went up as well. Wobb has not changed for me personally.
 
Master of the Six Kings said:
Let's not forget the real lack of Jolteon's roaming around anymore. Weezing will still hopefully be OU, but his useage isn't nearly what it used to be.
Click to expand...

Ehh, Weezing's been in the BL tier for the past couple of months already.

I haven't played much shoddy at all this month, but I can definitely predict that the metagame is getting a lot more diversified. People are actually trying out new sets on BL pokemon and such, and more people are giving UU pokemon a chance in OU.

Eg. The SubPetaya Agility Empoleon set is seeing some use, SD Kabutops saw some use after his peer edit, Gastrodon is seeing some usage after that thread about him was made, etc.
 
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