Way back when we had the Mega Evolution thread before Crucibelle, we discussed a concept called Mega Deltas, or how much a mega evolution improves the base Pokemon competitively. I wanted to find a way to quantify this as it could help us in future projects. Note I say improve rather than change because, as you will notice, Mega Garchomp barely improves the base because the speed drop is detrimental, so if we were to have a CAP with that as a feature of the Mega, it would need to compensate elsewhere.
Methodology and Purpose:
I used the Smogon damage calculator to test the various Mega Pokemon against a Standard Opponent, and also tested them defensively against a Standard Attacker and Standard Special Attacker.
In this way the ratings I derived would be based on percentages in realistic, relevant battle settings.
Link: https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=1E6751FA2224989C!415&app=Excel&authkey=!AOPGXLxaqh7Mwe4
Caveats / Explanation:
Offensive ratings (SPAF/SSAF):
Offensive ratings are for maximum investment without nature and based on the Pokemon's strongest legal attack (factored for accuracy), including abilities, but not including natures or items. So if you're wondering why Mega Charizard Y rivals Mega Charizard X physically and Mega Gardevoir rivals Mega Lopunny physically, it's because Drought Flare Blitz and Pixilate Double-Edge are disgustingly powerful, perfectly legal options available to those Pokemon. While I don't expect Mono-Attacking Return Mega Gardevoir to be beating the life out of Chansey any time soon, it would catch it off guard and regular Gardevoir can't do anything anything like that physically.
Offensive ratings are relatively accurate depictions of the percentage damage the Pokemon would do on average to a minimum investment (8 HP EVs to simulate 4 Def/SpD EVs) 100 HP/Def/SpD Pokemon, a Pokemon of relatively middling bulk, set roughly at Manaphy or offensive Jirachi levels. If a Pokemon's strongest move is inaccurate the BP was adjusted by accuracy (so Mega Lopunny HJK is set at 117 Base Power). The offensive ratings tell you (roughly) how well offensive Megas attack, not how well defensive Megas attack.
Defensive Ratings (PEND/SEND/WRM):
Defensive ratings are for minimum investment (8 HP EVs to simulate 4 Def/SpD EVs) so if you're wondering why Mega Sableye has a lower Physical Endurance (PEND) rating than Mega Pinsir, it's because maxing Sableye's HP greatly increases it's overall defenses whereas, in a vacuum, 65/120 is better than 50/125. Defensive ratings do consider abilities like Intimidate on the Base Form or Mega, but only for that Pokemon (so Gyarados's PEND rating is better than Mega Gyarados's).
There was no efficient way to be able to differentiate Defensive Megas from Offensive Megas in a way that wouldn't turn calculations into a nightmare. The object of the sheet is to identify change from Base to Mega. Mega Sableye's PEND difference is huge, Mega Pinsir's is small. TL;DR Defensive Ratings tell you how well offensive Megas take attacks, not how well defensive ones take attacks.
The Weakness Resistance Modifier (WRM) considers the Pokemon's overall type resistance. Types that remain the same have no difference, types that change have that change reflected in their defensive ratings. WRM uses the sum of all the Pokemon's weaknesses and resistances and divides by 18. It factors in Abilities like Filter which change weaknesses from 2x to 1.5x.
Standard Attackers:
The Standard Attackers chosen for the defensive ratings were Jolly Rocky Helmet Garchomp Earthquake (STAB Neutral Max Atk) and Naive/Timid Assault Vest Tornadus Hurricane (STAB Neutral Max SpA).
These seemed to be realistic, relevant metagame threats whose damage percentages could form an effective baseline for univested strength. If these particular attacks easily 2HKO an univested Base but barely 2HKO an uninvested Mega, that defensive difference is competitively relevant.
Speed Significance:
This was a multiplier I derived for offensive and defensive deltas based mostly on important speed tiers. I used Base 30, 70, 80, 100, 105, 110, 120, 135, and 145. If the Pokemon shifts up or down one of these speed tiers their speed significance factor is likewise adjusted, based at 1 and then +/- 0.5 on the multiplier for each shift. Shifts are inclusive of tying that speed so Mega Pinsir's multiplier is 2 (1 Base + shifting above 100 and at 105 speed tier, 0.5 x 2 = 1, 1+1=2). Mega Alakazam and Mega Aerodactyl's are also 2 because they shift up above 135 and 145. Since Mega Camerupt, Mega Sableye, Mega Garchomp, and Mega Ampharos all lose speed their Speed Significance multiplier is 0.5.
Deltas:
Conclusions:
Crucibelle fell well within normal parameters for a Mega Delta, it's change is actually less aggressive than the average (41.9 compared to 48.0), but not by much. Compared to the average it has a smaller offensive delta (23.4 compared to 35.1) and a larger defensive delta (18.5 compared to 13.2).
The Standard Deviation on Megas is pretty high (31.8). If you were to set a CAP boundary on Mega Deltas at 1 Standard Deviation, you could go as low as Mega Ampharos (19.5) or as high as Mega Gardevoir (78.3). Mega Garchomp (14.4) would be too little competitive improvement, even though 102 and 92 speeds play entirely differently.
Credits:
I worked on most of the grinding, but I want to thank Imanalt for pointing me in a better direction for factoring in Speed shifts. Whether this was an effective solution I'll leave up for critique, but I think it captures competitive efficacy well enough, and gives us a realistic window into how much improvement is "average" for Gamefreak created Mega Pokemon.
Fun Facts:
The 3 Lowest Deltas are Mega Gyarados (10.6), Mega Slowbro (12.5), and Mega Garchomp(14.4). Since this is an improvement score this means the originals are pretty good themselves.
The 3 Highest Deltas are Mega Pinsir (128.6), Mega Lucario (124.6), and Mega Sharpedo (119.4). Mega Sharpedo gets about 60% of its boost from going from membrane defenses all the way to paper, the rest is Strong Jaws Crunch.
Methodology and Purpose:
I used the Smogon damage calculator to test the various Mega Pokemon against a Standard Opponent, and also tested them defensively against a Standard Attacker and Standard Special Attacker.
In this way the ratings I derived would be based on percentages in realistic, relevant battle settings.
Link: https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=1E6751FA2224989C!415&app=Excel&authkey=!AOPGXLxaqh7Mwe4
Caveats / Explanation:
Offensive ratings (SPAF/SSAF):
Offensive ratings are for maximum investment without nature and based on the Pokemon's strongest legal attack (factored for accuracy), including abilities, but not including natures or items. So if you're wondering why Mega Charizard Y rivals Mega Charizard X physically and Mega Gardevoir rivals Mega Lopunny physically, it's because Drought Flare Blitz and Pixilate Double-Edge are disgustingly powerful, perfectly legal options available to those Pokemon. While I don't expect Mono-Attacking Return Mega Gardevoir to be beating the life out of Chansey any time soon, it would catch it off guard and regular Gardevoir can't do anything anything like that physically.
Offensive ratings are relatively accurate depictions of the percentage damage the Pokemon would do on average to a minimum investment (8 HP EVs to simulate 4 Def/SpD EVs) 100 HP/Def/SpD Pokemon, a Pokemon of relatively middling bulk, set roughly at Manaphy or offensive Jirachi levels. If a Pokemon's strongest move is inaccurate the BP was adjusted by accuracy (so Mega Lopunny HJK is set at 117 Base Power). The offensive ratings tell you (roughly) how well offensive Megas attack, not how well defensive Megas attack.
Defensive Ratings (PEND/SEND/WRM):
Defensive ratings are for minimum investment (8 HP EVs to simulate 4 Def/SpD EVs) so if you're wondering why Mega Sableye has a lower Physical Endurance (PEND) rating than Mega Pinsir, it's because maxing Sableye's HP greatly increases it's overall defenses whereas, in a vacuum, 65/120 is better than 50/125. Defensive ratings do consider abilities like Intimidate on the Base Form or Mega, but only for that Pokemon (so Gyarados's PEND rating is better than Mega Gyarados's).
There was no efficient way to be able to differentiate Defensive Megas from Offensive Megas in a way that wouldn't turn calculations into a nightmare. The object of the sheet is to identify change from Base to Mega. Mega Sableye's PEND difference is huge, Mega Pinsir's is small. TL;DR Defensive Ratings tell you how well offensive Megas take attacks, not how well defensive ones take attacks.
The Weakness Resistance Modifier (WRM) considers the Pokemon's overall type resistance. Types that remain the same have no difference, types that change have that change reflected in their defensive ratings. WRM uses the sum of all the Pokemon's weaknesses and resistances and divides by 18. It factors in Abilities like Filter which change weaknesses from 2x to 1.5x.
Standard Attackers:
The Standard Attackers chosen for the defensive ratings were Jolly Rocky Helmet Garchomp Earthquake (STAB Neutral Max Atk) and Naive/Timid Assault Vest Tornadus Hurricane (STAB Neutral Max SpA).
These seemed to be realistic, relevant metagame threats whose damage percentages could form an effective baseline for univested strength. If these particular attacks easily 2HKO an univested Base but barely 2HKO an uninvested Mega, that defensive difference is competitively relevant.
Speed Significance:
This was a multiplier I derived for offensive and defensive deltas based mostly on important speed tiers. I used Base 30, 70, 80, 100, 105, 110, 120, 135, and 145. If the Pokemon shifts up or down one of these speed tiers their speed significance factor is likewise adjusted, based at 1 and then +/- 0.5 on the multiplier for each shift. Shifts are inclusive of tying that speed so Mega Pinsir's multiplier is 2 (1 Base + shifting above 100 and at 105 speed tier, 0.5 x 2 = 1, 1+1=2). Mega Alakazam and Mega Aerodactyl's are also 2 because they shift up above 135 and 145. Since Mega Camerupt, Mega Sableye, Mega Garchomp, and Mega Ampharos all lose speed their Speed Significance multiplier is 0.5.
Deltas:
- O-Delta (Offensive Delta) averages the Pokemon's Differences in SPAF, SSAF, and multiplies by Speed Significance.
- D-Delta (Defensive Delta) averages the Pokemon's Differences in PEND, SEND, multiplies by WRM difference, and also multiplies by half the Speed Significance. This is because faster or slower Pokemon may have to take / will avoid additional hits. It doesn't effect Pokemon with no defensive differences between Base and Mega because those Pokemon don't have a net difference in defenses [Thanks, Math!].
- I don't know whether it's relevant to adjust for this or not. In theory if you can take a hit when you Mega Evolve and be faster the next turn, your defense has improved (take less hits). In reality though, the three Megas this applies to (Absol, Beedrill, Glalie) have the defenses of a wet sack, and in fact would be KO'd by a Life Orb attack from either of the Standard Attackers.
- Total-Delta is the sum of O-Delta and D-Delta.
Conclusions:
Crucibelle fell well within normal parameters for a Mega Delta, it's change is actually less aggressive than the average (41.9 compared to 48.0), but not by much. Compared to the average it has a smaller offensive delta (23.4 compared to 35.1) and a larger defensive delta (18.5 compared to 13.2).
The Standard Deviation on Megas is pretty high (31.8). If you were to set a CAP boundary on Mega Deltas at 1 Standard Deviation, you could go as low as Mega Ampharos (19.5) or as high as Mega Gardevoir (78.3). Mega Garchomp (14.4) would be too little competitive improvement, even though 102 and 92 speeds play entirely differently.
Credits:
I worked on most of the grinding, but I want to thank Imanalt for pointing me in a better direction for factoring in Speed shifts. Whether this was an effective solution I'll leave up for critique, but I think it captures competitive efficacy well enough, and gives us a realistic window into how much improvement is "average" for Gamefreak created Mega Pokemon.
Fun Facts:
The 3 Lowest Deltas are Mega Gyarados (10.6), Mega Slowbro (12.5), and Mega Garchomp(14.4). Since this is an improvement score this means the originals are pretty good themselves.
The 3 Highest Deltas are Mega Pinsir (128.6), Mega Lucario (124.6), and Mega Sharpedo (119.4). Mega Sharpedo gets about 60% of its boost from going from membrane defenses all the way to paper, the rest is Strong Jaws Crunch.
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