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Team MPL XII - Week Seven

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Regiboob

Regiboob

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Incredible art by sleepyzen.

Hosted by July, QT, and Regiboob.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Semifinals | Finals
Administrative Decisions | Replays and Usage Stats | Record Sheet

Rules​
  • Follow all rules listed here.
  • Schedule via Smogon VMs. It's easier for us to make decisions for activity calls when we can actually see what went down with scheduling.
  • If you are unable to schedule with your opponent, please let your managers know ASAP so they can communicate that to us or the other team's managers for a potential substitute.
  • Substitutions may be made after a week has started. When making a substitution, please tag myself, the managers of the opposing team, and all of the players affected by the substitute to ensure that everyone is made aware. Players who have already played in the week or were subbed out in the same week cannot be subbed back in.
  • If a match remains incomplete by the time of the deadline, it will be subject to an activity call.
  • Replays are mandatory. Not only are they useful for confirming wins, they contribute to usage stats and allow the people who couldn't watch the games live to watch them later.
  • All players must conform to the username requirements specified here. In short, alts must be voiced on the Smogtours server, and/or closely resemble the player's Forum Name in an identifiable way.
Week 7
clefables_logo-png.827940
vs
black-city-browts-png.827590

Meteoric Cosmic Clefables (2) vs (4) Black City Browts
SV: DugZa vs Shucklegigas
SV: Chaitanya vs Leafeonlol
SV: ImprobableBlob vs Dieu Amphibien
SV: luisin vs Fraolain
SS: DAHLI vs twinkay
SM: Sabella vs hex
ORAS: Ashbala vs Spitfire
BW: ikiarihS vs Zap

gholdengos-png.827941
vs
img_1054-5-jpeg.827588

Game Corner Gholdengos (3) vs (5) Sunset Dreamers
SV: clean vs adjustments
SV: QWILY vs maki
SV: LogIce vs Silent Waltz
SV: LoSconosciuto vs vk
SS: Stareal vs kythr
SM: Sunnyboi0 vs Bouff
ORAS: Aeran vs Genhui
BW: Xiri vs sky

JRvxsSsEA9wmm4lE0BPPFw.png
vs
meloettas.png

Mesagoza Mega Sols (5) vs (2) Melemele Meloettas
SV: Vodoom vs NoName6293
SV: Fusien vs Iggy96
SV: Rio Vidal vs Dugtrio Is Broken
SV: LBN vs Cielau
SS: Azick vs Masskeau
SM: terrors vs Toadow
ORAS: Showl vs dawnmidst
BW: Meta vs Gelbel3c

treeckos.png
vs
Straw-Hatterenes-logo.png

Trick House Treeckos (4) vs (4) Straw Hatterenes
SV: cpt.kraken vs Scarfire
SV: Ethereal Sword vs Neko
SV: hammy3581 vs Leafium Z
SV: MattandMello vs RoyalReloaded
SS: Shiba vs schwipper
SM: Thanos vs Ringmaster Uta
ORAS: ArkenCiel vs ElectraineHeart
BW: crash vs jackuzzler

Deadline for Week 7 is 15 June 2026 at 07:00.

Meteoric Cosmic Clefables (0) vs (0) Black City Browts
SV: DugZa vs Shucklegigas
SV: pyrmd vs Leafeonlol
SV: ImprobableBlob vs Dieu Amphibien
SV: luisin vs Fraolain
SS: DAHLI vs twinkay
SM: Sabella vs hex
ORAS: Ashbala vs Spitfire
BW: ikiarihS vs Zap

Game Corner Gholdengos (0) vs (0) Sunset Dreamers
SV: clean vs adjustments
SV: QWILY vs maki
SV: Eternal Spirit vs Silent Waltz
SV: LoSconosciuto vs vk
SS: Stareal vs Sagazinha
SM: Sunnyboi0 vs Bouff
ORAS: Aeran vs Genhui
BW: Xiri vs sky

Mesagoza Mega Sols (0) vs (0) Melemele Meloettas
SV: Vodoom vs NoName6293
SV: Fusien vs Iggy96
SV: Rio Vidal vs Dugtrio Is Broken
SV: LBN vs Cielau
SS: Azick vs Masskeau
SM: terrors vs Toadow
ORAS: Showl vs dawnmidst
BW: Meta vs Gelbel3c

Trick House Treeckos (0) vs (0) Straw Hatterenes
SV: Fentropy vs Scarfire
SV: Ethereal Sword vs Neko
SV: hammy3581 vs Leafium Z
SV: MattandMello vs RoyalReloaded
SS: Shiba vs schwipper
SM: Thanos vs Ringmaster Uta
ORAS: ArkenCiel vs ElectraineHeart
BW: crash vs jackuzzler
 
Last edited:
Hello everyone. Here are the playoffs qualification probabilities and scenarios heading into Week 7.
Code: 
Meteoric Cosmic Clefables: 0.987597
Sunset Dreamers: 0.886993
Mesagoza Mega Sols: 0.847270
Trick House Treeckos: 0.763814
Melemele Meloettas: 0.514327
Black City Browts: 0
Game Corner Gholdengos: 0
Straw Hatterenes: 0
Incredibly, no teams are confirmed through yet. Five teams are still in contention for all four slots, making these easily the most complicated scenarios I've covered. Every team has paths that leads to ties with other teams; depending on how other matches go, they may not be relevant for qualification (e.g. a 3rd/4th tie) and so such situations will be labeled as "possible tiebreaks." Deadgames are not considered.

Clefables:
A win or tie automatically qualifies.
A loss fails to qualify only if all four remaining teams overtake them. This means that all of the following must occur:
(1) Mega Sols overtake on a tie, as well as any loss if they win 2 more games than Clefables. Mega Sols enter a possible tiebreak if they lose by 1 fewer game than Clefables. (A Mega Sols win automatically eliminates either the Meloettas or Treeckos and so qualifies the Clefables.)
(2) Dreamers overtake on any win or tie as well as any loss if they win 3 more games than Clefables. Dreamers enter a possible tiebreak if they lose by 2 fewer games.
(3) Treeckos overtake on any win. If Treeckos tie, then they enter a possible tiebreak if Clefables lose 3-5 and overtake if Clefables do worse.
(4) Meloettas overtake on any win. If Meloettas tie, then they enter a possible tiebreak if Clefables lose 1-7 and overtake if Clefables lose 0-8.

Mega Sols:
(Note: Mega Sols have higher differential than Dreamers, but the qualification probability is lower because they are facing the Meloettas who are a direct competitor.)
A win or tie automatically qualifies.
A loss fails to qualify only if all the remaining teams qualify over them. This means that all of the following must occur:
(1) Clefables maintain their lead on a win or tie as well as any loss if they win at least as many games as the Mega Sols. Clefables enter a possible tiebreak if they lose by 1 more game than the Mega Sols.
(2) Dreamers overtake on any win or tie as well as any loss if they win 2 more games than the Mega Sols. Dreamers enter a possible tiebreak if they win 1 more game.
(3) Treeckos overtake on any win or tie.
(4) Since Meloettas are facing the Mega Sols, they automatically qualify in this scenario.

Dreamers:
A win or tie automatically qualifies.
A loss fails to qualify only if all the remaining teams qualify over them. This means that all of the following must occur:
(1) Clefables maintain their lead on a win or tie as well as any loss if they win at least 1 fewer game than the Dreamers. Clefables enter a possible tiebreak if they win 2 fewer games than the Dreamers.
(2) Mega Sols maintain their lead on a tie as well as any loss if they win at least as many games as the Dreamers. Mega Sols enter a possible tiebreak if they win 1 fewer game than the Dreamers. (A Mega Sols win automatically eliminates either the Meloettas or Treeckos and so qualifies the Dreamers.)
(3) Treeckos overtake on any win or tie.
(4) Meloettas overtake on any win or tie.

Treeckos:
A win or tie automatically qualifies. A loss leads to the following results:
(1) If Meloettas win or tie, Treeckos are automatically eliminated.
(2) If Meloettas lose, Treeckos are eliminated if the Meloettas lost by 3 fewer games and enter a tiebreak if the Meloettas lost by 2 fewer games. If Treeckos win 1 fewer game than the Meloettas, the Treeckos qualify.

Meloettas:
A win automatically qualifies. A tie qualifies if either the Dreamers lose, the Treeckos lose, or the Clefables lose 0-8. If the Clefables lose 1-7, a possible tiebreak occurs.
A loss qualifies only if the Treeckos lose by 3 more games than the Meloettas. A tiebreak occurs if the Treeckos lose by 2 more games.

Browts/Gholdengos/Hatterenes: The real playoffs were the friends we made along the way.

Here is the most fun result:
Code: 
Clefables 0-8 Browts
Mega Sols 1-7 Meloettas
Dreamers 2-6 Gholdengos
Treeckos 5-3 Hatterenes
leading to the following table:
Code: 
Treeckos: 9 points, 8 differential
Meloettas: 9 points, 8 differential
Clefables: 8 points, 0 differential
Mega Sols: 8 points, 0 differential
Dreamers: 8 points, 0 differential
This produces a tiebreak between 1st/2nd and a 3-way tiebreak for qualification. MAKE IT HAPPEN!
 
Last edited:
So my predictions have gone negative every week so far. If any of you don't know who to predict, just predict the opposite of what I'm doing and profit.

Meteoric Cosmic Clefables (4) vs (4) Black City Browts
SV: DugZa (16735) vs Shucklegigas (4318)
SV: pyrmd (3000) vs Leafeonlol (5405)
SV: ImprobableBlob (5702) vs Dieu Amphibien (16252)
SV: luisin (10420) vs Fraolain (13160)
SS: DAHLI (19565) vs twinkay (9851)
SM: Sabella (10740) vs hex (3435)
ORAS: Ashbala (3028) vs Spitfire (32895)
BW: ikiarihS (6140) vs Zap (3982)
Total: 75330 - 89297

Game Corner Gholdengos (4) vs (4) Sunset Dreamers
SV: clean (7957) vs adjustments (13475)
SV: QWILY (6174) vs maki (12495)
SV: Eternal Spirit (9390) vs Silent Waltz (7151)
SV: LoSconosciuto (11348) vs vk (9951)
SS: Stareal (7635) vs Sagazinha (4634)
SM: Sunnyboi0 (3028) vs Bouff (6392)
ORAS: Aeran (3028) vs Genhui (3500)
BW: Xiri (16696) vs sky (2625)
Total: 65256 - 69138

Mesagoza Mega Sols (4) vs (4) Melemele Meloettas
SV: Vodoom (4634) vs NoName6293 (5058)
SV: Fusien (18428) vs Iggy96 (6366)
SV: Rio Vidal (10545) vs Dugtrio Is Broken (3960)
SV: LBN (8021) vs Cielau (29153)
SS: Azick (26358) vs Masskeau (7033)
SM: terrors (9906) vs Toadow (19684)
ORAS: Showl (5265) vs dawnmidst (4698)
BW: Meta (12845) vs Gelbel3c (25927)
Total: 96001 - 101880
 
Last edited:
Meteoric Cosmic Clefables (0) vs (0) Black City Browts
SV: DugZa vs Shucklegigas
SV: pyrmd vs Leafeonlol
SV: ImprobableBlob vs Dieu Amphibien
SV: luisin vs Fraolain
SS: DAHLI vs twinkay
SM: Sabella vs hex
ORAS: Ashbala vs Spitfire
BW: ikiarihS vs Zap

Game Corner Gholdengos (0) vs (0) Sunset Dreamers
SV: clean vs adjustments
SV: QWILY vs maki
SV: Eternal Spirit vs Silent Waltz
SV: LoSconosciuto vs vk
SS: Stareal vs Sagazinha
SM: Sunnyboi0 vs Bouff
ORAS: Aeran vs Genhui
BW: Xiri vs sky

Mesagoza Mega Sols (0) vs (0) Melemele Meloettas
SV: Vodoom vs NoName6293
SV: Fusien vs Iggy96
SV: Rio Vidal vs Dugtrio Is Broken
SV: LBN vs Cielau
SS: Azick vs Masskeau
SM: terrors vs Toadow
ORAS: Showl vs dawnmidst
BW: Meta vs Gelbel3c

Trick House Treeckos (0) vs (0) Straw Hatterenes
SV: Fentropy vs Scarfire
SV: Ethereal Sword vs Neko
SV: hammy3581 vs Leafium Z
SV: MattandMello vs RoyalReloaded
SS: Shiba vs schwipper
SM: Thanos vs Ringmaster Uta
ORAS: ArkenCiel vs ElectraineHeart
BW: crash vs jackuzzler
 
Last edited:
Meteoric Cosmic Clefables (0) vs (0) Black City Browts
SV: DugZa vs Shucklegigas
SV: pyrmd vs Leafeonlol
SV: ImprobableBlob vs Dieu Amphibien
SV: luisin vs Fraolain
SS: DAHLI vs twinkay
SM: Sabella vs hex
ORAS: Ashbala vs Spitfire
BW: ikiarihS vs Zap

Game Corner Gholdengos (0) vs (0) Sunset Dreamers
SV: clean vs adjustments
SV: QWILY vs maki
SV: Eternal Spirit vs Silent Waltz
SV: LoSconosciuto vs vk
SS: Stareal vs Sagazinha
SM: Sunnyboi0 vs Bouff
ORAS: Aeran vs Genhui
BW: Xiri vs sky

Mesagoza Mega Sols (0) vs (0) Melemele Meloettas
SV: Vodoom vs NoName6293
SV: Fusien vs Iggy96
SV: Rio Vidal vs Dugtrio Is Broken
SV: LBN vs Cielau
SS: Azick vs Masskeau
SM: terrors vs Toadow
ORAS: Showl vs dawnmidst
BW: Meta vs Gelbel3c
 
Last edited:
Meteoric Cosmic Clefables (3) vs (5) Black City Browts
SV: DugZa vs Shucklegigas
SV: pyrmd vs Leafeonlol
SV: ImprobableBlob vs Dieu Amphibien
SV: luisin vs Fraolain
SS: DAHLI vs twinkay
SM: Sabella vs hex
ORAS: Ashbala vs Spitfire
BW: ikiarihS vs Zap

Game Corner Gholdengos (0) vs (8) Sunset Dreamers
SV: clean vs adjustments
SV: QWILY vs maki
SV: Eternal Spirit vs Silent Waltz
SV: LoSconosciuto vs vk
SS: Stareal vs Sagazinha
SM: Sunnyboi0 vs Bouff
ORAS: Aeran vs Genhui
BW: Xiri vs sky

Mesagoza Mega Sols (4) vs (4) Melemele Meloettas
SV: Vodoom vs NoName6293
SV: Fusien vs Iggy96
SV: Rio Vidal vs Dugtrio Is Broken
SV: LBN vs Cielau
SS: Azick vs Masskeau
SM: terrors vs Toadow
ORAS: Showl vs dawnmidst
BW: Meta vs Gelbel3c

Trick House Treeckos (2) vs (6) Straw Hatterenes
SV: Fentropy vs Scarfire
SV: Ethereal Sword vs Neko
SV: hammy3581 vs Leafium Z
SV: MattandMello vs RoyalReloaded
SS: Shiba vs schwipper
SM: Thanos vs Ringmaster Uta
ORAS: ArkenCiel vs ElectraineHeart
BW: crash vs jackuzzler
 
Last edited:
Game Corner Gholdengos (0) vs (0) Sunset Dreamers
SV: clean vs adjustments
SV: QWILY vs maki
SV: Eternal Spirit vs Silent Waltz
SV: LoSconosciuto vs vk
SS: Stareal vs Sagazinha
SM: Sunnyboi0 vs Bouff
ORAS: Aeran vs Genhui
BW: Xiri vs sky

Mesagoza Mega Sols (0) vs (0) Melemele Meloettas
SV: Vodoom vs NoName6293
SV: Fusien vs Iggy96
SV: Rio Vidal vs Dugtrio Is Broken
SV: LBN vs Cielau
SS: Azick vs Masskeau
SM: terrors vs Toadow
ORAS: Showl vs dawnmidst
BW: Meta vs Gelbel3c

Trick House Treeckos (0) vs (0) Straw Hatterenes
SV: Fentropy vs Scarfire
SV: Ethereal Sword vs Neko
SV: hammy3581 vs Leafium Z
SV: MattandMello vs RoyalReloaded
SS: Shiba vs schwipper
SM: Thanos vs Ringmaster Uta
ORAS: ArkenCiel vs ElectraineHeart
BW: crash vs jackuzzler
 
gamba gamba gamba
Meteoric Cosmic Clefables (0) vs (0) Black City Browts
SV: DugZa vs Shucklegigas
SV: pyrmd vs Leafeonlol
SV: ImprobableBlob vs Dieu Amphibien
SV: luisin vs Fraolain
SS: DAHLI vs twinkay
SM: Sabella vs hex
ORAS: Ashbala vs Spitfire
BW: ikiarihS vs Zap

Game Corner Gholdengos (0) vs (0) Sunset Dreamers
SV: clean vs adjustments
SV: QWILY vs maki
SV: Eternal Spirit vs Silent Waltz
SV: LoSconosciuto vs vk
SS: Stareal vs Sagazinha
SM: Sunnyboi0 vs Bouff
ORAS: Aeran vs Genhui
BW: Xiri vs sky

Mesagoza Mega Sols (0) vs (0) Melemele Meloettas
SV: Vodoom vs NoName6293
SV: Fusien vs Iggy96
SV: Rio Vidal vs Dugtrio Is Broken
SV: LBN vs Cielau
SS: Azick vs Masskeau
SM: terrors vs Toadow
ORAS: Showl vs dawnmidst
BW: Meta vs Gelbel3c

Trick House Treeckos (0) vs (0) Straw Hatterenes
SV: Fentropy vs Scarfire
SV: Ethereal Sword vs Neko
SV: hammy3581 vs Leafium Z
SV: MattandMello vs RoyalReloaded
SS: Shiba vs schwipper
SM: Thanos vs Ringmaster Uta
ORAS: ArkenCiel vs ElectraineHeart
BW: crash vs jackuzzler
 
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