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Sports NBA Thread: 2022-2023 Season
- Thread starter Celticpride
- Start date
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As the #1 Jimmy Butler fan on this site, that was one of the worst games I've ever seen from him. His poor play + losing the offensive rebounding battle 22 to 5 is the reason the Heat lost. Lowry played out of his mind and it just wasn't enough. They'll have one more chance against the winner of Bulls/Raptors. But congrats to the Hawks. We'll see if they can make things interesting with the Celtics.
Was that the way you thought the Lakers game was gonna go....LMFAO a win is a win I guess.
There would've been generational slander if the Lakers blew that game after the AD foul at the end of regulation LOL. But props to them, they got the W.
How Timbs were playing in the 4th was just completely sad like no offensive flow.
When Lakers were down 15 in the 3rd it they were a +235 underdog, I knew that was great odds because you have the greatest team in existence...the referees.
Yep, exactly. Turns out Anthony Edwards hero ball isn't gonna save you against competent defenses.
Jeeze, they are lucky they're getting Memphis. Or maybe not.
I really wanted Nuggets Lakers but I’ll take this but I have a feeling lakers might win the series a lot of it will be on Ja
I know people conspiracize about the Lakers but they do have at least three guys who are offensively talented in drawing fouls while simultaneously being the best team defending without fouling (which is one of the major factors in being a top defensive team period). That is what that large gap creates.
(4) Cleveland Cavaliers versus (5) New York Knicks
“Quite frankly, I’ve been busting his ass for years.” – Donovan Mitchell on Dillon Brooks
This will be the most interesting series from the Eastern Conference in Round 1 for me. I expect it to be very close and competitive. Cleveland has put together an impressive regular season. They have the #1 defensive rating at 109.9 and top five in defending paint points. This should come to no surprise as generally Mobley and Allen hold it down in the paint very nicely, and Mobley is the most mobile defensive forward we’ve seen since Kevin Garnett. Donovan Mitchell is one of the most proven playoff performers and an elite scorer who hasn’t shown he can be stopped. Thanks to him, Cleveland is also top 10 in offensive rating. They are one of the few handful of teams top ten in both offense and defense. So, why exactly do I have this series so close?
Cleveland has weaknesses they haven’t addressed over the course of the season in my eyes. Outside of Mobley and Allen, they’re quite small and filled with shaky role-players. The size of the team is only smaller once Kevin Love was waived. Donovan and Garland are outstanding offensive guards, but clearly defensively challenged. Their forward rotation includes Isaac Okoro, Lamar Stevens, and Dean Wade. These players to me are not good fifth starters meant to play long playoff minutes. They can certainly step up and change my mind, but their perimeter play is a major weak link in my eyes. By having only two real rebounders, some of their defensive factors over the course of the season are going to be tested in ways outside of their frontline. They were never a good rebounding team, and for whatever reason, teams over the course of the season have shot really well from long-distance against them.
New York Knicks on the other hand, gets most of their defensive strength through their perimeter guys. New York isn’t ranked particularly high overall in defensive rating, but they have kept Cleveland to 109.4 points in their four matchups which matches Cleveland’s defensive rating. Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett, Josh Hart, Immanuel Quickley, & Quintin Grimes are all some combination of quick and/or strong. So, I expect the series to at least be close since both teams theoretically have the same number of advantages and disadvantages: New York with their depth and perimeter, and Cleveland with their frontcourt.
So, what’s the swing factor that will decide this close series? I point to the forwards of both teams. Hart is a wing Cleveland wishes they had. He is all their forwards combined into one body. He can shoot very well, attack close-outs, and rebounds. If Hart and many of the other New York players are showing signs of resisting Cleveland’s pick-and-roll, killing the glass, and making shots, Cleveland doesn’t have many other ways to win. Okoro is expected to defend Brunson. He did an excellent job throughout the regular season. He could certainly swing it back to Cleveland’s favor if he isn’t giving up as much to Brunson, but he also would need to emulate the production of someone like Josh Hart.
The other swing factor I’ll consider are the offensive combos of Garland and Mitchell versus Brunson and Randle. I’m going into this assuming Randle plays and is at least decent offensively, but even observing from afar, it’s clear to me that while Brunson and Randle tend to be isolation heavy in their offensive schemes, they do have variety of ways to attack smaller or slower players. Especially Brunson who has already beaten Donovan in the playoffs last year and attacked him on almost every possession he could. Donovan and Garland are pick-and-roll heavy, but that may change in the playoffs and I expect Donovan to be a bit more isolation-centered like he was in years past.
With all that said, it’ll be interesting to see which group is more comfortable offensively throughout the series. Obviously, much of this will also depend on which forwards convert more on their spot-up opportunities, which would once again favor New York. New York is top three in spot-up conversion while Cleveland is the fifth worst. This is likely because outside of Mitchell and Garland on the perimeter, everyone else is a pure spot-up shooter, and likely shaky. You would prefer Mobley to take pressure off the backcourt. For New York, their options are plenty: Quickley, Barrett, Hart, and their bigs are great in the dunker spot. They might run iso heavy offense, but they can mix-up their counters to double teams or traps around their star isolation players. Who is more able to take pressure off each team’s two leading scorers? Mobley or the New York wingmen? As I said before, this series will be competitive and close, so it will come down to who wins the little advantages, and I trust New York’s middle-talent depth over Cleveland’s.
New York wins if: Josh Hart is the best glue guy in the series, Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle found a way to score consistently even with Mobley and Allen on the court. New York is beating Cleveland by three-point range consistently and converting offensive boards.
Cleveland wins if: Allen and Mobley are dominating the interior and minimizes Randle’s overall impact. Donovan is the clear-cut best player from both teams. Okoro manages to produce enough points, defense, and maybe rebounding to keep up with New York’s perimeter depth. Mobley is finding a way to wreak havoc on this New York’s offense.
Knicks in six.
“Quite frankly, I’ve been busting his ass for years.” – Donovan Mitchell on Dillon Brooks
This will be the most interesting series from the Eastern Conference in Round 1 for me. I expect it to be very close and competitive. Cleveland has put together an impressive regular season. They have the #1 defensive rating at 109.9 and top five in defending paint points. This should come to no surprise as generally Mobley and Allen hold it down in the paint very nicely, and Mobley is the most mobile defensive forward we’ve seen since Kevin Garnett. Donovan Mitchell is one of the most proven playoff performers and an elite scorer who hasn’t shown he can be stopped. Thanks to him, Cleveland is also top 10 in offensive rating. They are one of the few handful of teams top ten in both offense and defense. So, why exactly do I have this series so close?
Cleveland has weaknesses they haven’t addressed over the course of the season in my eyes. Outside of Mobley and Allen, they’re quite small and filled with shaky role-players. The size of the team is only smaller once Kevin Love was waived. Donovan and Garland are outstanding offensive guards, but clearly defensively challenged. Their forward rotation includes Isaac Okoro, Lamar Stevens, and Dean Wade. These players to me are not good fifth starters meant to play long playoff minutes. They can certainly step up and change my mind, but their perimeter play is a major weak link in my eyes. By having only two real rebounders, some of their defensive factors over the course of the season are going to be tested in ways outside of their frontline. They were never a good rebounding team, and for whatever reason, teams over the course of the season have shot really well from long-distance against them.
New York Knicks on the other hand, gets most of their defensive strength through their perimeter guys. New York isn’t ranked particularly high overall in defensive rating, but they have kept Cleveland to 109.4 points in their four matchups which matches Cleveland’s defensive rating. Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett, Josh Hart, Immanuel Quickley, & Quintin Grimes are all some combination of quick and/or strong. So, I expect the series to at least be close since both teams theoretically have the same number of advantages and disadvantages: New York with their depth and perimeter, and Cleveland with their frontcourt.
So, what’s the swing factor that will decide this close series? I point to the forwards of both teams. Hart is a wing Cleveland wishes they had. He is all their forwards combined into one body. He can shoot very well, attack close-outs, and rebounds. If Hart and many of the other New York players are showing signs of resisting Cleveland’s pick-and-roll, killing the glass, and making shots, Cleveland doesn’t have many other ways to win. Okoro is expected to defend Brunson. He did an excellent job throughout the regular season. He could certainly swing it back to Cleveland’s favor if he isn’t giving up as much to Brunson, but he also would need to emulate the production of someone like Josh Hart.
The other swing factor I’ll consider are the offensive combos of Garland and Mitchell versus Brunson and Randle. I’m going into this assuming Randle plays and is at least decent offensively, but even observing from afar, it’s clear to me that while Brunson and Randle tend to be isolation heavy in their offensive schemes, they do have variety of ways to attack smaller or slower players. Especially Brunson who has already beaten Donovan in the playoffs last year and attacked him on almost every possession he could. Donovan and Garland are pick-and-roll heavy, but that may change in the playoffs and I expect Donovan to be a bit more isolation-centered like he was in years past.
With all that said, it’ll be interesting to see which group is more comfortable offensively throughout the series. Obviously, much of this will also depend on which forwards convert more on their spot-up opportunities, which would once again favor New York. New York is top three in spot-up conversion while Cleveland is the fifth worst. This is likely because outside of Mitchell and Garland on the perimeter, everyone else is a pure spot-up shooter, and likely shaky. You would prefer Mobley to take pressure off the backcourt. For New York, their options are plenty: Quickley, Barrett, Hart, and their bigs are great in the dunker spot. They might run iso heavy offense, but they can mix-up their counters to double teams or traps around their star isolation players. Who is more able to take pressure off each team’s two leading scorers? Mobley or the New York wingmen? As I said before, this series will be competitive and close, so it will come down to who wins the little advantages, and I trust New York’s middle-talent depth over Cleveland’s.
New York wins if: Josh Hart is the best glue guy in the series, Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle found a way to score consistently even with Mobley and Allen on the court. New York is beating Cleveland by three-point range consistently and converting offensive boards.
Cleveland wins if: Allen and Mobley are dominating the interior and minimizes Randle’s overall impact. Donovan is the clear-cut best player from both teams. Okoro manages to produce enough points, defense, and maybe rebounding to keep up with New York’s perimeter depth. Mobley is finding a way to wreak havoc on this New York’s offense.
Knicks in six.
(3) Sacramento Kings versus (6) Golden State Warriors
“Insecurity is always loud.” – Draymond Green and Ruby Gobert about each other
I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t see Sacramento making the playoffs like this. Not only did I predict they wouldn’t make it, but you wouldn’t catch me or even the fans predicting that they’d get a #3 seed with the fastest, highest-scoring offense in NBA history. The Sabonis/Haliburton trade was initially seen as lopsided, and the final stretch of last year didn’t end well with Sabonis and Fox together.
But once Mike Brown entered the picture, everything changed. Known as a defense-first coach, it’s quite something for an offense of this caliber to come from this coach. Perhaps his time in Golden State paid off. Fox and Sabonis together while being surrounded by shooters broke the longest playoff drought in North American sports. Congratulations to them. Unfortunately, they couldn’t have gotten a worse round 1 matchup: The Golden State Warriors. We may as well be talking about little brother versus big brother.
I can’t fathom many pathways for Sacramento to be advantageous in this series. Golden State historically has been one of the most turnover prone teams, and Sacramento’s offense in transition is one of the best in the league at 1.42 points per possession. One of the ways Sacramento can make this series interesting is by taking advantage of Golden State’s turnovers. Problem is, they are dead center average in opponent turnovers. Sacramento would have to ramp up its defensive efforts, and I don’t know if I see that being the case. Why?
With the way the roster is constructed, Mike Brown has a hard decision to make. He simply does not possess many two-way players. Sacramento has great defenders in Davion Mitchell and Terence Davis, but they are not dependable shooters. He has solid shooters in Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, and Keegan Murray, but they are porous defensively. So, the most important task for Brown in order to beat Golden State is to find a line-up combination that can score and defend. We’re only talking about perimeter players right now, too. They have no defensive frontline to speak of. Golden State always has three shooting threats on the floor. You may only be able to take advantage of Poole and perhaps Thompson, but once you consider guys like Wiggins and Payton, their balance in defense and shooting isn’t as compromised as Sacramento’s.
Can Sacramento have hope outside of transition? That depends on how well Fox/Sabonis dribble handoffs do. In the regular season matchups, Kerr had Green of all people on Fox, and it worked. Adding more insult to injury, they traded for Payton II in February and he’s excellent at point-of-attack defense. They also will now have Wiggins ready at the start of the postseason. I’m not saying these guys can stop Fox individually, but they are harder to score on than what Thompson and Curry will see on the other side. Golden State now have more than enough defenders to guard both Fox/Sabonis simultaneously for long stretches, and with a defense as bad as Sacramento’s, that is a humongous advantage because offense is your only advantage at all.
This can be summed up very easily: Sacramento is 2nd worst in opponent field goal %, 5th worst in opponent 3-point %, and 3rd worst in opponent assists. Golden State is 1st in assists, 2nd in 3-point%, and 12th in total field goal%. If we simply assume Golden State is even half of who they were last year, how do they not win this series? Road woes are well-documented, but that’s only in their 3-point defense. Most of the other stats are the same.
Sacramento wins if: It is the beginning of the end for Golden State. Thompson, Curry, and Green all show their age and continuously foul, get beat on defense, and can’t run offense to save their life as they keep turning it over an astronomical number of times. Sacramento makes a monumental statement about defense in the playoffs, and we enter a new era of offense-first basketball.
Golden State wins if: Payton II, Green, and Wiggins help them get stops by successfully stifling the Fox/Sabonis dribble handoff. Sacramento can’t find a combination of both offense and defense.
Golden State in six.
“Insecurity is always loud.” – Draymond Green and Ruby Gobert about each other
I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t see Sacramento making the playoffs like this. Not only did I predict they wouldn’t make it, but you wouldn’t catch me or even the fans predicting that they’d get a #3 seed with the fastest, highest-scoring offense in NBA history. The Sabonis/Haliburton trade was initially seen as lopsided, and the final stretch of last year didn’t end well with Sabonis and Fox together.
But once Mike Brown entered the picture, everything changed. Known as a defense-first coach, it’s quite something for an offense of this caliber to come from this coach. Perhaps his time in Golden State paid off. Fox and Sabonis together while being surrounded by shooters broke the longest playoff drought in North American sports. Congratulations to them. Unfortunately, they couldn’t have gotten a worse round 1 matchup: The Golden State Warriors. We may as well be talking about little brother versus big brother.
I can’t fathom many pathways for Sacramento to be advantageous in this series. Golden State historically has been one of the most turnover prone teams, and Sacramento’s offense in transition is one of the best in the league at 1.42 points per possession. One of the ways Sacramento can make this series interesting is by taking advantage of Golden State’s turnovers. Problem is, they are dead center average in opponent turnovers. Sacramento would have to ramp up its defensive efforts, and I don’t know if I see that being the case. Why?
With the way the roster is constructed, Mike Brown has a hard decision to make. He simply does not possess many two-way players. Sacramento has great defenders in Davion Mitchell and Terence Davis, but they are not dependable shooters. He has solid shooters in Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, and Keegan Murray, but they are porous defensively. So, the most important task for Brown in order to beat Golden State is to find a line-up combination that can score and defend. We’re only talking about perimeter players right now, too. They have no defensive frontline to speak of. Golden State always has three shooting threats on the floor. You may only be able to take advantage of Poole and perhaps Thompson, but once you consider guys like Wiggins and Payton, their balance in defense and shooting isn’t as compromised as Sacramento’s.
Can Sacramento have hope outside of transition? That depends on how well Fox/Sabonis dribble handoffs do. In the regular season matchups, Kerr had Green of all people on Fox, and it worked. Adding more insult to injury, they traded for Payton II in February and he’s excellent at point-of-attack defense. They also will now have Wiggins ready at the start of the postseason. I’m not saying these guys can stop Fox individually, but they are harder to score on than what Thompson and Curry will see on the other side. Golden State now have more than enough defenders to guard both Fox/Sabonis simultaneously for long stretches, and with a defense as bad as Sacramento’s, that is a humongous advantage because offense is your only advantage at all.
This can be summed up very easily: Sacramento is 2nd worst in opponent field goal %, 5th worst in opponent 3-point %, and 3rd worst in opponent assists. Golden State is 1st in assists, 2nd in 3-point%, and 12th in total field goal%. If we simply assume Golden State is even half of who they were last year, how do they not win this series? Road woes are well-documented, but that’s only in their 3-point defense. Most of the other stats are the same.
Sacramento wins if: It is the beginning of the end for Golden State. Thompson, Curry, and Green all show their age and continuously foul, get beat on defense, and can’t run offense to save their life as they keep turning it over an astronomical number of times. Sacramento makes a monumental statement about defense in the playoffs, and we enter a new era of offense-first basketball.
Golden State wins if: Payton II, Green, and Wiggins help them get stops by successfully stifling the Fox/Sabonis dribble handoff. Sacramento can’t find a combination of both offense and defense.
Golden State in six.
Last edited:
DeRozan's daughter Bulls MVP
18-36 from the line is INSANE. Saw this on twitter but imagine her in a Bucks series with Giannis at the line....
Poor Ingram. Still got love for my fellow high school alumni.
Predictions:
Nuggets vs Thunder / Timberwolves: I don't think it makes a difference I think whichever 8th seed comes out isn't good enough to win in a 7 game series especially with the injury to Jaden McDaniels is a very big blow, I think Thunder have a Center issue to take on Jokic so it'll be an easy series regardless.
Grizzlies vs Lakers: This is one of the tougher matchups I think, but I think Lakers wanted this matchup. I also think it puts a lot of pressure on Jaren Jackson, the NBA wants to see more Lebron in the playoff so I think it'll be a close series going to the Lakers.
Kings vs Warriors: Really close series, I think if Wiggins is healthy my prediction will be wrong but I think the timing of everything has the Kings going through to the next round.
Suns vs Clippers: The Clippers about to revamp after this season, it's been quite a failure with Kawhi / PG, not saying it's their fault but they never have a completely healthy roster and this is gonna be the toughest team they're going to face since both these guys joined together.
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Bucks vs Bulls / Heat: Bucks regardless of what team makes it through, I think Bucks have the easiest path to the Final compared to any other team.
Celtics vs Hawks: I can see it being a close series with the Hawks making it interesting but I think the Celtics are too deep in terms of their roster, Celtics only got better from last year from a roster perspective.
76ers vs Nets: I feel like this will also be a close series, 76ers always tend to fuck up some how but I think they'll still pull off the win. Claxton can't take on Embiid especially with Simmons out for the year.
Knicks vs Cavs: Knicks baby, Jalen Brunson is that guy, this is the best roster they had in the last 10 years, im really excited I don't see them losing unless an injury happens.
Nuggets vs Thunder / Timberwolves: I don't think it makes a difference I think whichever 8th seed comes out isn't good enough to win in a 7 game series especially with the injury to Jaden McDaniels is a very big blow, I think Thunder have a Center issue to take on Jokic so it'll be an easy series regardless.
Grizzlies vs Lakers: This is one of the tougher matchups I think, but I think Lakers wanted this matchup. I also think it puts a lot of pressure on Jaren Jackson, the NBA wants to see more Lebron in the playoff so I think it'll be a close series going to the Lakers.
Kings vs Warriors: Really close series, I think if Wiggins is healthy my prediction will be wrong but I think the timing of everything has the Kings going through to the next round.
Suns vs Clippers: The Clippers about to revamp after this season, it's been quite a failure with Kawhi / PG, not saying it's their fault but they never have a completely healthy roster and this is gonna be the toughest team they're going to face since both these guys joined together.
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Bucks vs Bulls / Heat: Bucks regardless of what team makes it through, I think Bucks have the easiest path to the Final compared to any other team.
Celtics vs Hawks: I can see it being a close series with the Hawks making it interesting but I think the Celtics are too deep in terms of their roster, Celtics only got better from last year from a roster perspective.
76ers vs Nets: I feel like this will also be a close series, 76ers always tend to fuck up some how but I think they'll still pull off the win. Claxton can't take on Embiid especially with Simmons out for the year.
Knicks vs Cavs: Knicks baby, Jalen Brunson is that guy, this is the best roster they had in the last 10 years, im really excited I don't see them losing unless an injury happens.
fr, this happens against a more relevant team and the outrage would be historic. Oh well, Raps are such a swing team that I'm not surprised they choked it away.
(2) Memphis Grizzlies versus (7) Los Angeles Lakers
“I wouldn’t mind playing LeBron in a seven-game series. The legacy is there. First time back in the playoffs, knock him out right away. They’ll test us good.” – Dillon Brooks.
Memphis once again finds itself facing off against a veteran team. They will be without both Brandon Clarke and Steven Adams. This was already a major storyline heading into the series as Los Angeles enters with a formidable frontcourt. Jaren Jackson Jr. will be the main line of defense in this series. He is certainly capable as he is the primary reason Memphis ranks 2nd in defensive rating. He will likely win Defensive Player of the Year.
Here is where things get tough for Memphis: Jackson Jr. leads the league in fouls committed. Los Angeles leads the league in drawing fouls. Jackson Jr. needs to stay on the floor as much as possible for Memphis to sustain its defense but being foul prone is a recipe for disaster as we just witnessed in Minnesota’s Play-In loss to Los Angeles. He averaged 5 fouls against Los Angeles in the regular season. Both Anthony Davis and LeBron James are going to put relentless pressure in the paint and try their best to get Jackson Jr. off the floor, and that is likely to happen unless Jackson Jr. plays smarter. He certainly has the athletic gifts, but he’s still coming around when it comes to committing fouls. Staying on the floor will give his team significantly a better chance of winning this series.
Here is where things get tough for Los Angeles: their guards are horrid at point-of-attack defense, and their best match-up for Morant is Schroeder. Schroeder will likely play more minutes than all the guards, and he’s been decent defensively as of late, but it’s unknown how well they can take on Morant’s speed. This is especially considering Los Angeles ranks bottom third in transition defense. They will have to do their best to keep Memphis out of transition and in the half court as much as possible. That can certainly be done if you draw many fouls and win the battle of the glass.
Speaking of the half court, we know that is Memphis’s weakness. Packing the paint has historically been successful in making them beatable. They don’t always shoot or attack close-outs well as they rank 27th in spot-up conversion. Outside of trying to contain Morant individually, Memphis’s secondary scorers need to help with rebounding and take advantage of any aggressive traps put on Morant. Bane and Kennard will likely be barometers on how effective Los Angeles’ defense on Morant is going; They are the only other two consistent outside shooters and in Bane’s case, slasher and shooter. Vanderbilt is likely to get the assignment on Bane most of the time, so his overall performance is another swing factor.
Much of this series reminds me of Los Angeles versus Oklahoma City in 2010. An older team with length versus a young team with speed, and it all comes down to who can dictate the pace more. Typically, the winner of pace controls the glass and gets to the line more/fouls less. That would slightly favor Los Angeles since Memphis has been a poor rebounding team since the absence of Adams and Clarke. Memphis does have the advantage of Morant’s speed, and if they can take advantage of that even in the half court, none of the other stuff matters. It’ll be up to Jenkins to find a line-up combination that can rebound and score. Unfortunately, his scorers are primarily guards, and his best rebounders are injured. So, it will be up to the likes of Dillon at the four (less rebounding) or Tillman at the four/five (easier to pack the paint).
Another closely contested series, but I favor conventional winning pathways, and the pace advantages simply lean toward Los Angeles. However, Memphis can just as likely win this. We don’t know how well Los Angeles’s defense handles speed, and they are still terrible defending in transition. Their group has been impressive on defense since the deadline ranking near the top, but that Play-In game exposed to me how their role guys are as new to the spotlight as any other team’s role guys.
Memphis Grizzlies win if: Schroeder, and Los Angeles as a collective team cannot handle Morant’s speed. Brooks, Jackson Jr., and Morant and shooting lights out from distance. Jackson Jr. is avoiding enough foul trouble to stay on the floor. Jenkins found a lineup that equally balances rebounding and spacing.
Los Angeles wins if: They control the pace through rebounding, drawing fouls, and consistently pounding the ball inside. They get Jackson Jr. in foul trouble. Memphis is stuck in half court and bricking left and right.
Lakers in 7.
“I wouldn’t mind playing LeBron in a seven-game series. The legacy is there. First time back in the playoffs, knock him out right away. They’ll test us good.” – Dillon Brooks.
Memphis once again finds itself facing off against a veteran team. They will be without both Brandon Clarke and Steven Adams. This was already a major storyline heading into the series as Los Angeles enters with a formidable frontcourt. Jaren Jackson Jr. will be the main line of defense in this series. He is certainly capable as he is the primary reason Memphis ranks 2nd in defensive rating. He will likely win Defensive Player of the Year.
Here is where things get tough for Memphis: Jackson Jr. leads the league in fouls committed. Los Angeles leads the league in drawing fouls. Jackson Jr. needs to stay on the floor as much as possible for Memphis to sustain its defense but being foul prone is a recipe for disaster as we just witnessed in Minnesota’s Play-In loss to Los Angeles. He averaged 5 fouls against Los Angeles in the regular season. Both Anthony Davis and LeBron James are going to put relentless pressure in the paint and try their best to get Jackson Jr. off the floor, and that is likely to happen unless Jackson Jr. plays smarter. He certainly has the athletic gifts, but he’s still coming around when it comes to committing fouls. Staying on the floor will give his team significantly a better chance of winning this series.
Here is where things get tough for Los Angeles: their guards are horrid at point-of-attack defense, and their best match-up for Morant is Schroeder. Schroeder will likely play more minutes than all the guards, and he’s been decent defensively as of late, but it’s unknown how well they can take on Morant’s speed. This is especially considering Los Angeles ranks bottom third in transition defense. They will have to do their best to keep Memphis out of transition and in the half court as much as possible. That can certainly be done if you draw many fouls and win the battle of the glass.
Speaking of the half court, we know that is Memphis’s weakness. Packing the paint has historically been successful in making them beatable. They don’t always shoot or attack close-outs well as they rank 27th in spot-up conversion. Outside of trying to contain Morant individually, Memphis’s secondary scorers need to help with rebounding and take advantage of any aggressive traps put on Morant. Bane and Kennard will likely be barometers on how effective Los Angeles’ defense on Morant is going; They are the only other two consistent outside shooters and in Bane’s case, slasher and shooter. Vanderbilt is likely to get the assignment on Bane most of the time, so his overall performance is another swing factor.
Much of this series reminds me of Los Angeles versus Oklahoma City in 2010. An older team with length versus a young team with speed, and it all comes down to who can dictate the pace more. Typically, the winner of pace controls the glass and gets to the line more/fouls less. That would slightly favor Los Angeles since Memphis has been a poor rebounding team since the absence of Adams and Clarke. Memphis does have the advantage of Morant’s speed, and if they can take advantage of that even in the half court, none of the other stuff matters. It’ll be up to Jenkins to find a line-up combination that can rebound and score. Unfortunately, his scorers are primarily guards, and his best rebounders are injured. So, it will be up to the likes of Dillon at the four (less rebounding) or Tillman at the four/five (easier to pack the paint).
Another closely contested series, but I favor conventional winning pathways, and the pace advantages simply lean toward Los Angeles. However, Memphis can just as likely win this. We don’t know how well Los Angeles’s defense handles speed, and they are still terrible defending in transition. Their group has been impressive on defense since the deadline ranking near the top, but that Play-In game exposed to me how their role guys are as new to the spotlight as any other team’s role guys.
Memphis Grizzlies win if: Schroeder, and Los Angeles as a collective team cannot handle Morant’s speed. Brooks, Jackson Jr., and Morant and shooting lights out from distance. Jackson Jr. is avoiding enough foul trouble to stay on the floor. Jenkins found a lineup that equally balances rebounding and spacing.
Los Angeles wins if: They control the pace through rebounding, drawing fouls, and consistently pounding the ball inside. They get Jackson Jr. in foul trouble. Memphis is stuck in half court and bricking left and right.
Lakers in 7.
(4) Phoenix Suns versus (5) Los Angeles Clippers
“Yea and our starting center @KendrickPerkins averaged a whopping 2 and 3 during that series. U played hard tho champ lol” – Kevin Durant on Kendrick Perkins.
This series will not be as close as seedings suggest. If this series is competitive, it is largely due to Ty Lue just being that damn good at game planning for the playoffs. Los Angeles enters this series with a lot of major disadvantages. They have a chance for an upset, but it will depend more on Phoenix being massively overrated than Los Angeles being underrated.
To begin, the team stats for Los Angeles with Paul George absent don’t look good on both ends. Offensively, they go from 117.7 (3rd overall) to 111.7 (26th overall). Defensively, they go from 114.2 (14th overall) to 117.9 (26th overall). That is one of the starkest drops in offensive efficiency I’ve seen up to this point, and it all makes sense. He is probably the most complete player on this entire team. Defense, scoring, playmaking, rebounding; Paul George did the things Kawhi didn’t have to worry about, and their other wingmen simply pale in comparison. To put it bluntly, they’re already beginning the race behind on both ends.
Los Angeles needs to significantly make-up the scoring drop, and it’s going to take more than a peak Kawhi. Kawhi by himself is great, but he does not elevate his teammates without a point guard. The only other playmakers on the team are Powell and Westbrook. Powell’s offensive rating when Kawhi rests is a trash 107.1. That simply leaves Westbrook who has played exceptionally well, but still has playoff ghosts when it comes to turnovers. He’s currently shooting 33% from three. You can expect Phoenix to have someone like Durant or maybe even Ayton roam off Westbrook whenever he is in the half court. So, in short, Westbrook is a major x-factor. Regardless of how you feel about him, is that ever a purely positive thing to say?
The Kawhi/Durant comparisons are interesting, and Kawhi is one of my favorite players. If I’m being honest, this direct match up likely won’t favor Kawhi for several reasons. Kawhi at this stage of his career doesn’t expand as much energy defensively than in years past. If he has to defend Durant, he’s already at a disadvantage because Durant can rest on the other end of the floor. Los Angeles don’t have any other solid individual defenders for Durant aside from George. The other and more important reason it won’t favor Kawhi is because Durant is a complete offensively skilled player. Kawhi scores mostly on pull-ups and jumpshots. He very rarely puts any real pressure on the rim or slashes as he prefers to isolate. When Kawhi is the sole shot creator, defenses don’t warp and simply zone in. Durant on the other hand plays off ball, make plays, executes pick and roll; you name it. The variance in their offense will undoubtedly make Durant harder to guard over the course of a seven-game series, and I just see Kawhi either losing steam from being forced to slow him down or trying to compete with a superior scorer in heavy isolation and no playmaking.
What can Los Angeles do to win this series? Zubac is interesting, as he essentially decides whether we get the big or small lineups out. Zubac can dominate the boards since Ayton tends to get beat by taller, more physical players. The con of that is… you’re leaving Zubac to be exposed to a hundred pull-ups by the top 3 mid-range shooters in the league in drop coverage defense. So, his advantage may actually be a wash at best. Perhaps then Los Angeles can try different guys to roam defensively off Phoenix’s fifth starter. Someone like Kawhi, Westbrook, or even Covington can try to break apart Phoenix’s sets. I’ll admit, it’ll be difficult if they have all three of Paul, Booker, and Durant on the floor, but it still will be done. What about attacking and involving Chris Paul in every play? That worked extremely well last year for New Orleans and Dallas. Though, you must hope Westbrook makes shots if he’s on the floor as this is happening. Los Angeles is an excellent spot-up team, so maybe this could work even with Westbrook off the floor. This is the only weak link they can hope for to get consistent scoring.
In short, Los Angeles must hope they can be physical enough with Phoenix to muck the game up. Get to the line, attack Paul, make your threes, have somebody make plays, and save Kawhi’s energy. That’s a lot to ask from this team without their other star. It’s a shame because this could have been a very even series; maybe even advantageous to Los Angeles. They do have the math advantage traditionally since they make and take more threes and Phoenix is poor at getting to the line in comparison, but without George, they simply aren’t the same team anymore.
Phoenix wins if: The combination of Paul, Booker, and Durant offensively flows more seamlessly than the combination of Kawhi, Westbrook, and Powell. Zubac is played off the floor. Kawhi gets worn out.
Los Angeles wins if: They win the battle of the math by being hot from three and getting to the line more often. They find a way to slow down Durant without having to use Kawhi. Westbrook becomes a competent playmaker and makes some shots. Ty Lue found something defensively to stymy Phoenix’s offense. Phoenix has no idea how to play in the playoffs because the team is still so new.
Suns in five.
“Yea and our starting center @KendrickPerkins averaged a whopping 2 and 3 during that series. U played hard tho champ lol” – Kevin Durant on Kendrick Perkins.
This series will not be as close as seedings suggest. If this series is competitive, it is largely due to Ty Lue just being that damn good at game planning for the playoffs. Los Angeles enters this series with a lot of major disadvantages. They have a chance for an upset, but it will depend more on Phoenix being massively overrated than Los Angeles being underrated.
To begin, the team stats for Los Angeles with Paul George absent don’t look good on both ends. Offensively, they go from 117.7 (3rd overall) to 111.7 (26th overall). Defensively, they go from 114.2 (14th overall) to 117.9 (26th overall). That is one of the starkest drops in offensive efficiency I’ve seen up to this point, and it all makes sense. He is probably the most complete player on this entire team. Defense, scoring, playmaking, rebounding; Paul George did the things Kawhi didn’t have to worry about, and their other wingmen simply pale in comparison. To put it bluntly, they’re already beginning the race behind on both ends.
Los Angeles needs to significantly make-up the scoring drop, and it’s going to take more than a peak Kawhi. Kawhi by himself is great, but he does not elevate his teammates without a point guard. The only other playmakers on the team are Powell and Westbrook. Powell’s offensive rating when Kawhi rests is a trash 107.1. That simply leaves Westbrook who has played exceptionally well, but still has playoff ghosts when it comes to turnovers. He’s currently shooting 33% from three. You can expect Phoenix to have someone like Durant or maybe even Ayton roam off Westbrook whenever he is in the half court. So, in short, Westbrook is a major x-factor. Regardless of how you feel about him, is that ever a purely positive thing to say?
The Kawhi/Durant comparisons are interesting, and Kawhi is one of my favorite players. If I’m being honest, this direct match up likely won’t favor Kawhi for several reasons. Kawhi at this stage of his career doesn’t expand as much energy defensively than in years past. If he has to defend Durant, he’s already at a disadvantage because Durant can rest on the other end of the floor. Los Angeles don’t have any other solid individual defenders for Durant aside from George. The other and more important reason it won’t favor Kawhi is because Durant is a complete offensively skilled player. Kawhi scores mostly on pull-ups and jumpshots. He very rarely puts any real pressure on the rim or slashes as he prefers to isolate. When Kawhi is the sole shot creator, defenses don’t warp and simply zone in. Durant on the other hand plays off ball, make plays, executes pick and roll; you name it. The variance in their offense will undoubtedly make Durant harder to guard over the course of a seven-game series, and I just see Kawhi either losing steam from being forced to slow him down or trying to compete with a superior scorer in heavy isolation and no playmaking.
What can Los Angeles do to win this series? Zubac is interesting, as he essentially decides whether we get the big or small lineups out. Zubac can dominate the boards since Ayton tends to get beat by taller, more physical players. The con of that is… you’re leaving Zubac to be exposed to a hundred pull-ups by the top 3 mid-range shooters in the league in drop coverage defense. So, his advantage may actually be a wash at best. Perhaps then Los Angeles can try different guys to roam defensively off Phoenix’s fifth starter. Someone like Kawhi, Westbrook, or even Covington can try to break apart Phoenix’s sets. I’ll admit, it’ll be difficult if they have all three of Paul, Booker, and Durant on the floor, but it still will be done. What about attacking and involving Chris Paul in every play? That worked extremely well last year for New Orleans and Dallas. Though, you must hope Westbrook makes shots if he’s on the floor as this is happening. Los Angeles is an excellent spot-up team, so maybe this could work even with Westbrook off the floor. This is the only weak link they can hope for to get consistent scoring.
In short, Los Angeles must hope they can be physical enough with Phoenix to muck the game up. Get to the line, attack Paul, make your threes, have somebody make plays, and save Kawhi’s energy. That’s a lot to ask from this team without their other star. It’s a shame because this could have been a very even series; maybe even advantageous to Los Angeles. They do have the math advantage traditionally since they make and take more threes and Phoenix is poor at getting to the line in comparison, but without George, they simply aren’t the same team anymore.
Phoenix wins if: The combination of Paul, Booker, and Durant offensively flows more seamlessly than the combination of Kawhi, Westbrook, and Powell. Zubac is played off the floor. Kawhi gets worn out.
Los Angeles wins if: They win the battle of the math by being hot from three and getting to the line more often. They find a way to slow down Durant without having to use Kawhi. Westbrook becomes a competent playmaker and makes some shots. Ty Lue found something defensively to stymy Phoenix’s offense. Phoenix has no idea how to play in the playoffs because the team is still so new.
Suns in five.
Great analyses. The Grizzlies frontcourt depth is very poor without Adams and Clarke, so I definitely have concerns about the JJJ fouls and rebounding. One player you didn't mention specifically is Tyus Jones, someone that I think has the potential to give Memphis some really good minutes. In any case, I think this should be a great series.
I could see Jones making a difference if him and Morant play in the same lineup, and they use their speed to combat any blitz on Morant. Though normally off the bench, he's a methodical point guard. Playing the 2, he can shoot, but you get even smaller against the Lakers.
He's another shooter and playmaker, but I guess I didn't see him as a swing factor because Lakers sorta have someone like that as is and it just might be a wash. Were you referring to his impact in another way I'm not aware of?
He's another shooter and playmaker, but I guess I didn't see him as a swing factor because Lakers sorta have someone like that as is and it just might be a wash. Were you referring to his impact in another way I'm not aware of?
I was thinking if he has a couple of hot shooting nights that it could go a long way for the Grizzlies. Maybe one game he goes 5/6 from three and it swings the game in Memphis' favor. Grizz could really use the extra offense wherever it comes from. Other than that, it's like you said, he's a solid shooter and playmaker who can come off the bench and run the offense reasonably well or play alongside Ja (the latter of which comes with its own downside, as you pointed out).
If I were Jenkins, I'd at least try it out if the paint is too crowded. We'll see how it goes. I'm curious to see Morant’s progress.
I’m combining both Sixers/Nets and Celtics/Hawks since they involve heavy favorites. I feel like these series will be more about measuring how the likely Sixers/Celtics matchup may go.
For Sixers/Nets, it’s clear Embiid has the size advantage over Claxton. Brooklyn has no chance guarding him one-on-one. They have plenty interesting ways to extend the series, and we know Philadelphia is prone to random collapses. With the amount of length and speed on Brooklyn’s roster, Philadephia’s wings will be challenged. Philadelphia is also an extremely turnover prone team with a weakness in transition defense. Expect Brooklyn to play as fast as ever.
They can make these games interesting by doubling Embiid with length, and challenging Philadelphia’s guards to drive and shoot over length. You would expect a lot of missed shots and turnovers to occur from this. They can also switch everything and force Harden to bring the Houston Harden out if it even exists at this point. I’ll be paying close attention to Harden on both ends to see if he has what it takes to beat Boston’s defense in the next round.
The other interesting strategy is to play Embiid single-coverage and stay home on all shooters. The only perimeter player out there who can create their own shot is Harden, and even then, Harden may struggle against length. This is exactly what happened last year with Toronto. Embiid can totally score 50 and Philadelphia could still lose simply because their perimeter players stink when it comes to one-on-one. They remind me a lot like how teams would guard Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic back then.
Offensively, Brooklyn can go small and make it a track meet. Break down the slow Philadelphia team with a fast pace-and-space strategy that might even affect their conditioning or health. You never know.
But I expect Philadelphia to overall pull through one way or another. Harden and Embiid still can get your team in foul trouble. They should still dominate the glass. If Philadelphia screws this up, just toss all your guards and forwards off the team immediately.
Sixers in 5.
For the Celtics/Hawks, Boston’s bane has been quick point guards, so Young may have a great series. If he does, that means Atlanta needs more minutes from guys like Bey who can shoot and drive. On the perimeter, it’ll come down to which duo maximizes their output on the court between Young/Murray and Tatum/Brown. One thing to note first is that Atlanta isn’t particularly a good spot-up conversion team. Including Young, they haven’t shot too well from long-distance. That could change this series, but I highly doubt it’ll be better than Boston who ranks high in both categories. Tatum/Brown may not take care of the ball as well, but they certainly provide more defense, size, and versatility than Young/Murray while having a team to consistently take the pressure off them.
Horford and Grant Williams should be on watch simply because Young likes to hunt them out, but Boston has an answer in Robert Williams. Atlanta will test Boston’s rebounding. The only way they can potentially make up any difference in shooting is through extra possessions.
Boston’s defense on Young, close-outs and overall rebounding should be noted before the next round. Boston has a lot of depth and ways to counter almost anything so they should at least win the series, but don’t be surprised if it takes them awhile to figure out their point guard defense problem.
Celtics in six.
For Sixers/Nets, it’s clear Embiid has the size advantage over Claxton. Brooklyn has no chance guarding him one-on-one. They have plenty interesting ways to extend the series, and we know Philadelphia is prone to random collapses. With the amount of length and speed on Brooklyn’s roster, Philadephia’s wings will be challenged. Philadelphia is also an extremely turnover prone team with a weakness in transition defense. Expect Brooklyn to play as fast as ever.
They can make these games interesting by doubling Embiid with length, and challenging Philadelphia’s guards to drive and shoot over length. You would expect a lot of missed shots and turnovers to occur from this. They can also switch everything and force Harden to bring the Houston Harden out if it even exists at this point. I’ll be paying close attention to Harden on both ends to see if he has what it takes to beat Boston’s defense in the next round.
The other interesting strategy is to play Embiid single-coverage and stay home on all shooters. The only perimeter player out there who can create their own shot is Harden, and even then, Harden may struggle against length. This is exactly what happened last year with Toronto. Embiid can totally score 50 and Philadelphia could still lose simply because their perimeter players stink when it comes to one-on-one. They remind me a lot like how teams would guard Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic back then.
Offensively, Brooklyn can go small and make it a track meet. Break down the slow Philadelphia team with a fast pace-and-space strategy that might even affect their conditioning or health. You never know.
But I expect Philadelphia to overall pull through one way or another. Harden and Embiid still can get your team in foul trouble. They should still dominate the glass. If Philadelphia screws this up, just toss all your guards and forwards off the team immediately.
Sixers in 5.
For the Celtics/Hawks, Boston’s bane has been quick point guards, so Young may have a great series. If he does, that means Atlanta needs more minutes from guys like Bey who can shoot and drive. On the perimeter, it’ll come down to which duo maximizes their output on the court between Young/Murray and Tatum/Brown. One thing to note first is that Atlanta isn’t particularly a good spot-up conversion team. Including Young, they haven’t shot too well from long-distance. That could change this series, but I highly doubt it’ll be better than Boston who ranks high in both categories. Tatum/Brown may not take care of the ball as well, but they certainly provide more defense, size, and versatility than Young/Murray while having a team to consistently take the pressure off them.
Horford and Grant Williams should be on watch simply because Young likes to hunt them out, but Boston has an answer in Robert Williams. Atlanta will test Boston’s rebounding. The only way they can potentially make up any difference in shooting is through extra possessions.
Boston’s defense on Young, close-outs and overall rebounding should be noted before the next round. Boston has a lot of depth and ways to counter almost anything so they should at least win the series, but don’t be surprised if it takes them awhile to figure out their point guard defense problem.
Celtics in six.
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