Team Preview
Sami's team is fairly apparent at preview. The main uncertainties are largely going to be around the tera types. Is Arceus Tera Normal or Ghost? Is Eternatus Tera Fire or Dragon? What tera is Calyrex-Ice? I know Sami, but if you don't and scout him, in addition to the team from last week you'll probably arrive at the conclusion that he is nowhere near greedy enough to run some z set and it is boots. What tera though? Water, Fire and Fighting are all seen even though OTR Caly-I is mediocre even if it is viable. Either way I did test this team with Sami and he won 4/6 games iirc.
After being traumatized by Marshadow last week I think it is pretty likely AM decided on Coil Zygarde. As per usual, nothing really screams this is 100% this set. It really depends on what direction AM wants to take this team. Either Primal Groudon or Arceus-Fairy has hazards, but probably not both. The big question is whether Yveltal is Choice Scarf or Life Orb. If it is the latter Sucker Punch seems likely although Knock Off can fit on this sort of stuff if you're really looking to punish fat, but some form of speed control is nice on a slower team. I like AMs team and have a few teams with the same six, albeit different sets in my builder.
Matchup [60-40 for AM]
Having played a lot of games with AMs six, Glimmora is a pain in the ass. A real pain that makes deciding how to deal with it quite difficult. If AM can do that it should be relatively smooth sailing with Zygarde given that it walls everything but Eternatus with and Ho-Oh can phase that if it is defensive after baiting Meteor Beam with something else. So it goes without saying that Sami is going to have a bit more of an uphill battle here. A path to victory seems pretty likely to involve Eternatus + Arceus Taunting something, likely Zygarde. If Eternatus can grab a KO with Meteor Beam it may be a bit of a pain, but can be phased by Ho-Oh and if chipped, revenged by Yveltal. AM definitely has a favourable matchup, but it isn't an autopilot.
Game
We start of with a Glimmora v Lunala lead. I quite like this lead from AM, but more importantly Sami is friend, but AM has nicknames so I'm officially rooting for AM. With Lunala in these matchups you need to decide whether it is worth trying to remove hazards so it can be a safety blanket or lead it because it is going to have a tough time getting in to do work without Shadow Shield. Glimmora is showing its value here as it forces a decision like this compared to Deoxys-S. AM opts to remove Glimmora although I think Trick would be better here as you're functionally sacking Lunala and getting a Focus Sash could be nice for getting a Moonblast off v Yveltal later on if that comes up.
Arceus comes in on Lunala and Swords Dances as Ho-Oh comes in and reveals itself to be defensive and phases Arceus into Zacian-C which is a bit unlucky. AM then opts to Sacred Fire which unfortunately misses and gives Zacian-C a free SD. This isn't a bad play, but if you stay in I think you phase the Zacian-C. Sacred Fire has the miss chance, but it doesn't OHKO, burn is a coinflip, and a Zacian-C that has lost its boost is not threatening against this team. Primal Groudon comes in and then misses Precipice Blades and Yveltal comes in to revenge Zacian-C with a Choice Scarf.
Eternatus comes in and and AM opts to sacrifice Lunala as Meteor Beam misses. Sami then opts to Tera Dragon to remove Lunala. Zygarde then comes in and then gets a good roll and survives Dynamax Cannon at 1%, but this in no way makes up for earlier. Its then saced to get damage on the Eternatus. Arceus-Fairy comes in and finishes it off and then the game a couple turns later.
Additional Thoughts
Unfortunate cannot being to describe seeing this series of unfortunate events play out. I like AMs team a lot more and hope that the first two weeks does not cloud their perception of the tier. The tier isn't just matchup fishing and inaccurate moves I swear! That the game was still within reach despite only getting to play with half a team is quite something. Even with that Sacred Fire miss if Primal Groudon had hit Precipice Blades the game probably was fairly easily won. I think things will turn around for AM as the tournament goes on. Having either an unwinnable matchup or this level of luck is every week isn't likely to last.
Team Preview
So we have what is going to be as close to a mirror match as possible given the circumstances. Giratina-O Alo structures have not shown a sign of slowing down despite establishing a presence for a while now. Anyways, aside from the lack of an Arceus forme, which I did bring up to Cyclonez, this is a standardish Alo balance. Sure Ditto and Chien-Pao are on the less common side, but they partner well with Alo individually and together. Primal Groudon most certainly has Stealth Rock and is probably defensive. Given how annoyed this team is generally by any sort of Coil Zygarde, Giratina-O is likely to be special. The thing to be revealed is whether Chien-Pao is Sacred Sword as Sucker Punch is droppable here with the Ditto. Lastly, Chien-Pao + Ditto means you might be able to afford a defensive Eternatus here which is usually too passive to fit well on Alo structures unless you're going for Bob's semistall stuff.
Banana's team is also fairly standard. Deoxys-A is a cool bring and figuring out what coverage it has will be tough given that it is probably claiming a KO almost everytime it comes in. An Arceus forme with SpD is really common on structures like this for LO Yveltal and offensive Eternatus, but they can't switch into Psycho Boost. I want to say that given the aggressive nature of this team it is defensive Primal Groudon + Calm Mind Arceus-Fairy. I'd be surprised if Eternatus is defensive, especially after the issues Sami had last week, but anything could happen.
Matchup [80-20 Banana]
Despite being a Mola mirror this feels as though it will likely be a HO paced sac war because of the Deoxys-A. It is going to be threatening a KO everytime it hits the field and isn't really concerned by much of Cylconez's team. If it gets a KO with Psycho Boost, Ditto coming in doesn't threaten Banana's team much at all with -2 SpA. Sure Chien-Pao can come in, but that is hugely risky in of itself and then it also has to make another risky play in Crunch. Banana's team is honestly full of threats that Cyclonez does not switch into well. The one thing that isn't an issue, Arceus-Fairy, is a threatening wincon if it has Calm Mind.
So how does Cyclonez handle this? Well 8 Psyscho Boost PP is not a lot, but it is also enough. Sure Eternatus can Tera and potentially take 4 if a second one can be baited and Alomomola can take one with Protect, but Chien-Pao is likely going to need Tera in this game unless this is Choice Specs Eternatus. In the early game Alomomola can switch in once, but it is mostly going to be up to Arceus-Fairy to handle it and it is very vulnerable to Tera Dark Chien-Pao if it gets a Crunch drop. The challenge will be creating the opportunities to fish for those. 20% isn't a lot, but it also is enough to aim for.
What makes this challenging is the level of difficulty Cyclonez has in actuallly switching into much of anything. Primal Groudon isn't hard, Alo + Giratina-O should be ok, but given that Giratina-O probably isn't going to want to tera, Toxic is a concern and it is going to be difficult to heal it back up given that Banana just needs to use their Primal Groudon for rocks and keep it healthy enough to take on Eternatus if needed in the late game. Banana's own Giratina-O is actually a massive pain to switch into if it is special. If it is physical well that makes things easier and means Alo is opened up somewhat to Wish pass. That is also about the only way Ditto is putting in work given that Eternatus is likely wallbreaker which improofs itself with Tera Fairy. Maybe it can sweep in the endgame if tera is forced early, but it is going to be an uphill battle for Cyclonez.
Game
We open up the game with Cyclonez's Alomomola against Banana's Eternatus. Before Flip Turning out the Dynamax Cannon damage means this is is a +SpD Alo which is an attempt to cover for the lack of Arceus. Chien-Pao comes in and Ice Spinners into Arceus-Fairy. While this could be defensive, Alo teams usually run Timid with some defensive investment and it is probably best to assume that this is the case. Primal Groudon comes in on the Recover to set up Rocks as Giratina-O comes in. It fogs away the rocks as Alo comes in and Eternatus absorbs a Flip Turn. Rocks do matter for Arceus-Fairy being able to switch-in to Chien Pao, but if this is a special set Draco forces progess. It probably isn't KOing Alo, but it also will likely put it out of commission and nothing else is really able to take it.
Eternatus comes in to absorb a potential Toxic as Alomomola Flip Turns out to Chien-Pao which Ice Spinners into Alomomola. Cyclonez then allows her Primal Groudon to be Toxiced to get Stealth Rock up which I think is a mistake. It needs all of its HP to potentially sponge Deoyxs-A or Eternatus later and keeping all your options available v Deoxys-A is pretty important given its threat level. Speaking of here it comes in via Flip Turn and stares down Alomomola before Psycho Boosting into protect. Giratina-O comes in and absorbs it, but is going to be out of commission unless it can recieve a Wish.
A double switch has Banana's Eternatus in front of Alo which surprisingly reveals Toxic before Chien-Pao is brought in. It Ice Spinners into Arceus-Fairy which now cannot switch-in and both players double to Alo. Banana hard switches into Giratina-O which takes a Toxic and Defogs as Alomomola Wishes. I think this play is a bit too safe given how free Tera Dark Crunch is looking at the moment. Alomomola Flip Turns out to Primal Groudon as Banana's Giratina-O reveals Dragon Tail and Ditto is brought in...and doesn't transform. Unfortunately I think that most of us have been there. Personally, I recall the first time I ever used Alomomola I lost because I didn't realize it had Healer. She manually transforms and at least learns if this is a wallbreaker Eternatus that slapped Toxic over something or if this is just a defensive set.
Dynamax Cannon flops into Arceus-Fairy and Primal Groudon switches in and is Taunted and Alomomola switches in to position Eternatus which Sludge Bombs into Arceus-Fairy which switches out and Primal Groudon comes in and is poisoned. The Ditto thing absolutely sucks, but Cyclonez is at least making up ground, helped out by banana running physial Giratina-O. Cyclonez's Alo comes in and dodges Precicpice Blades and a double finds Ditto in front of Eternatus which is then sacced.
Chien-Pao gets an opportunity to come in and Tera Dark's and Alo shows that even this fat fuck of a fish is no match for the weasel as Tera Dark Crunch 2HKOs and forces Banana to Tera Dark his Alomomola. Cyclonez takes this opportunity to Wish and then Toxics which is a pretty big mistake. It allows Arceus-Fairy to Recover out of Ice Spinner range as Chien-Pao comes in. Arceus-Fairy survives Ice Spinner at 1% and takes out Chien-Pao. A couple turns later Deoxys-A does what was always likely to happen and the game is over.
Additional Thoughts
The Limber Ditto sucks, but given how this game played out I'm not sure how much of a difference it would have made anyways. I think Ditto is an A- mon because it does have issues against a fair few balance teams, Alomomola balance being one of them. This isn't an issue if it has a strong defensive backbone which this team doesn't have.
This was always going to be an uphill battle where Chien-Pao was leaned on. Getting rocks for free early on was great, but there was far too much emphasis on maintaining them. If Cyclonez can get them up for free that is great, but otherwise it isn't worth giving up the turn. She is at a hazard disadvantage here due to Chien-Pao. Yes Banana's Arceus-Fairy was threatened by Ice Spinner, but that can be played around. If rocks go up Cyclonez is going to be heavily pressured to keep them off so Chien-Pao can do its thing.
Even with the Ditto disaster, this game was winnable. I don't know if you drop Ditto or Eternatus, but the team needs an Arceus forme w some SpD investment. It isn't even Deoxys-A, but one of the reasons Chien-Pao works so well with a pivot is because it destroys most of the metagame, but also gets deleted if it tries to switch into most of the stuff it beats. The biggest threats to Alo teams tend to be very strong special attackers or stuff like Max Speed Taunt CM Arceus formes lategame. Having a SpD Arceus forme lets you actually switch into these and work towards positioning things so you can get a kill with your breaker, which seems to be Cyclonez main aim. Alo can take a special hit, but it doesn't over the course of a game unless you run into defensive Primal Kyogre.
This has mostly been from Cyclonez's perspective because that is the more interesting side to follow. I like Banana's team (minus the physical Giratina-O and maybe the Eternatus set). Banana did what he needed to do in this game. Some misplays certainly did help a bit, but ultimately you can only control what you do and banana played well. There just isn't that much to talk about. The most interesting thing here is that there is a good chance that this is going to be the only time Alomomola teras in NDFL/NDPL and it is actually impactful so that is cool.
Team Preview
We have two known teams with what is very likely sample stall facing off against Emoxu9's Lunala + Chi-Yu webs. There isn't much of anything to say here as the only mysteries are if the Smeargle or Lunala set are changed which they can be if you're expecting certain matchups.
Matchup [70-30 for 0.5 Mirror]
Although 0.5 Mirror is definitely favoured here it is not an autowin. The result of this game is going to depend on if Dahness can contain Chi-Yu. As this Chi-Yu has Taunt it is going to involve Toxicing it with Arceus-Dark or Eternatus and best limiting the damage it can do as it dies to Toxic. Lunala is slightly annoying, but is reliant on Chi-Yu doing the heavy lifting. Yveltal can play a role in helping to preserve progress and set things up for the endgame, but as it has Sucker Punch it is limited.
Game
Zacian-C leads into Arceus-Dark. This is a pretty good lead on both sides. Dahness is going to have a much easier game if they're able to keep rocks up and Zacian-C prevents Mirror from starting on the back foot. Dahness opts to switch to Dondozo instead of getting up rocks which I think is a mistake, but gets punished by a crit Wild Charge. This isn't the end of the world, but could play a factor later. It Curses up as Smeargle switches in and is brought down to its Focus Sash as it sets up webs. Smeargle is preserved as Lunala switches in and has its Shadow Shield broken.
A double finds Ho-Oh in front of Yveltal which Tera Fires and Taunts as it is chipped by Sacred Fire. Chansey switches into a Dark Pulse and catches Zacian-C with a Seismic Toss and then Chi-Yu as well on a bold stay in. This is fantastic for Dahness who then switches out for some reason to Ho-Oh and gives Chi-Yu a free Nasty Plot who then removes Ho-Oh with +2 Black Hole Eclipse. They then go to Giratina-O and switch to Chansey who is KO'd by two Fire Blasts. The game ends shortly after.
Additional Thoughts
I didn't watch this game live and only watched it as I wrote up this section and was kind of shocked at how things unfolded. Switching to Dondozo was playing it safe, but the bold Seismic Toss to catch Chi-Yu should have sealed the game for Dahness. Yes Chi-Yu has the potential to absolutely goob stall, but that also relies on it getting relatively free entry. I'm unsure exactly why Dahness decided to sac their entire team to Chi-Yu and throw away what should be a very easy win going forward. The only real threat is the Chi-Yu which either stays in and dies to Chansey or has to be played perfectly for a chance to do anything going forward if it switches out. Ho-Oh + Chansey are fine v Lunala. Chansey walls it eternally and Ho-Oh can always switch in and phase it to ensure that it won't have enough PP to break through in a longer game. Hell even Giratina, which seemed to destined to be nothing but a sac is even opened up after that Seismic Toss on Chi-Yu. I'm happy to see Chi-Yu having success, but it really does not deserve to win in this game.
Team Preview
Plsnostep's stall appears to be a stall team that was fairly popular on the ladder around January with Blissey substituted over Chansey. I wasn't a fan of this team then and I'm less of a fan now. Overheat Primal Groudon was and is a nuisance to stall teams. It doesn't beat them by itself, but it goes a long way and if played well should play a large role in dismantling it. It wasn't as popular (I'm not sure why) during that metagame, but it certainly is now. It doesn't break Giratina, but Toxicing it on the switch is fine. It shouldn't come as a surprise that Skarmory isn't a good replacement and Spikes are not a big enough reason to run it imo. Giratina is also better against pretty much every threat to stall bar Ultra Necrozma since Rayquaza and Lunala rely on 8 PP moves. If Ultra Necrozma is that big of an issue Dondozo can use an Ability Shield or Tera Dark. Blissey is fine, it is uncommon, but there are reasons to use it over Chansey.
Normally this is where I'd speculate about Rei's team, but this game happened while I was sleeping and the first I saw of it was plsnostep posting an image the forfeit on Turn 429. I watch every game, but as of writing this I have not watched this one yet so I'll take a gander on what sets these six are running to both last 429 turns and also be unable to break this stall.
Pdon is defensive w Rock Tomb. Ho-Oh is defensive with Whirlwind. Zygarde can be whatever, but 429 turns means it is probably defensive. Same with Eternatus. Yveltal is going to be Choice Scarf. Arceus-Fairy is Taunt Rocks, maybe Calm Mind.
Matchup
Rei's six can easily break through through stall, but again since I'm spoiled there isn't much point in spending much on this section. I'll just reiterate that Giratina-O is better than Skarmory in most scenarios and Pressure means it isn't too much trouble to stall the rising Garganacl out of Salt Cures or Alomomola in general.
Game
This game is way to long to spend time thinking about each move. Initially I wasn't going to bother watching it, but felt compelled. I'll go over some bigger stuff. I wrote a few lines about a few turns, then realized I could spend the next four hours of my life doing literally anything else and that would be more productive than analysing this game in depth. Its Monday so I get to treat myself with the Pervuian stall at the market up the road.
Addtional Comments
Ultimately we have a 429 Turn game of a stall team against a fat do nothing balance. Yeah sure some stuff could have been done differently, but the end result is going to be the same almost every time. Plsnostep would have to essentially make needlessly risky plays and probably get crit on top of this given the degree to which everymon is completely hard walled. This is also v a stall team that has some odd choices, ie. Liquidation on Dozo.
I find the process of how Rei's team was built more interesting than anything relating to the battle itself. In both NDPL there have been a few teams that clearly said I don't care if I face stall, if I do ggs. It isn't a philosophy I agree with, but stall isn't good nor difficult to beat, so if you want to punish that and fish, fair enough, that is a risk you take.
There doesn't seem to be much to the teambuilding process beyond a fat 'good mon' core + Choice Scarf Yveltal for speed control and HO in general. Not this team specifically, but these sorts of teams have largely left the metagame since Xerneas was banned. Just stack hazards and wait can be easily exploited by just about every playstyle other than HO.
Entry hazards are strong, but they are not strong enough to simply set them and wait around in most games. If Zygarde doesn't counter a mon, it is going to be incredibly difficult for this team to deal with. The exception is offensive Primal Kyogre as Eternatus + Primal Groudon limits that, though defensive is still annoying. No team is good against everything, but this team leaves a lot of openings for way too many mons. For example, Dragon Dance Zygarde 6-0s this team. It won't happen in one go, but it'll find an opportunity to sub Dragon Dance, Tera Ground and take out one of Arceus-Fairy or Yveltal and then come back later and do the same thing to the other and sweep after. Calm Mind Arceus formes are a pain, Necrozma-DM is rough if Zygarde is chipped in the slightest, almost any Alo team is going to be an unwinnable matchup, ect.
I'm not a fan of plsnostep's team either, but that is stall. You can tinker with stall all you want but it isn't going to solve the fundamental issue stall faces regarding the inability to play around its counterplay. It is viable, but our breakers are strong enough that it is going to be difficult for stall to be much more than a matchup fish.
Porto Alegre Poliwhirls (6) vs (4) Demon Psycho Deoxys 
Brexit Bibarels (4) vs (6) Pokerich Clique
Refined Regigigases (5) vs (5) The Sceptile Syndicate 
Kingly Kyurems (6) vs (4) SeismiSaucers 
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