np: Intro to Ubers Testing: It's the End of the World as We Know It (And I Feel Fine)

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Pokemon has elements of chance, that's how the game is. You can sway the odds in your favour, however, 30% sounds infeasible, but consider, as many have said before, that it's a 51% chance to KO at least one Pokemon over the use of two turns. Why would you attempt to use Sheer Cold on something like a DD Rayquaza? There's a niche use for Sheer Cold on Kyogre, and that Pokemon getting in for free? They risked a 30% chance of dying, 51% if they're slower. Just because it could go either way doesn't mean it's the definition of 'non-competitive', many a time has a game come down to a Focus Blast miss, a Scald burn, etc. Using Sheer Cold against offensive teams is a high risk, high reward strategy, but the risk is much higher, meaning you'll lose most of your games. Losing to a bunch of sequential Sheer Colds hitting may seem 'unfair' or whatever but there is nothing to differentiate that from 'competitively' losing to an Arceus crit or any other random roll of chance.

Also, more often than not there is a workaround to most things - Mamoswine can check as many Rayquaza as it wants, Yache Berry Rayquaza lacks the power to get through Ice Beam Arceus; almost no strategies are foolproof (and if there are some I'd like to know) and the metagame can usually adapt.
 
Poppy how would the meta handle RestTalk Kyogre with Sheer Cold and Scald? Stall and balanced teams are fucked up by it, as Kyogre gets many switch in oportunities, has reliable healing, and the opponent does not have many dangerous set-up sweepers.

Against offensive teams, Kyogre can still find time to use Sheer Cold. Don't forget that physically defensive Kyogre walls/checks many pokes, such as Leftovers Ho-Oh, Dialga, Kyurem-W, Darkrai, Terrakion and some else, so he will still have his chances to abuse Sheer Cold. It's not as Scald is something to laugh at either, but the fact that Sheer Cold will butcher balanced and stall teams make it seem uncompetitive.
 
^ Arceus and ditto fuck up HO, yet it's still a viable play style. Heatran counters sun teams in ou. Virizion shits on sand team in ou. That's not uncompetitive. Just b/c a play style is weak to x, doesn't mean x should be banned, that's idiotic logic. Every type of team has something it doesn't want to face, but they develop counters/check to whatever that is, that's called being a good player. Balanced and stall need to learn to adapt, it's as simple as that. FYI a bulky dragon type(which stall teams must have) or lugia(provided it has pressure) with a substitute counters that kyogre, as it can either stall it out, or attempt at the very least, a 3HKO. And don't tell me that's a specialized counter, ubers is known for developing very specific counters to a certain pokemon.
 
Arceus and Ditto fuck up HO? So? There are viable ways around it. Heatran does not counter sun, which is a whole playstyle, it checks/counters some of its members, but sun teams certainly have ways around him. The same is true for anything else you listed.

But Sheer Cold has no viable ways around it. Sturdy pokes get 2hkoed by Scald, and anything else has 51% chance to be OHKOed in 2 hits. Offensive teams won't mind sure, because they can kill Kyogre quick enough, but any other kind of team, cannot do the same, and they are in a very bad spot against this Kyogre.

Yeah dragons (Latias and Kyurem-W are ok Sub users) and Lugia with Sub can check him well, but still face a 30% chance to get OHKOed on the switch. Will that be enough to handle Kyogre? Maybe yes, maybe no, but i lean towards no.
 
Exactly. The fact that HO teams can find a way around arceus and ditto, proves stall can do the same with kyogre. This isn't ou, you know. Nothing can switch in to anything in ubers, lol. It's the same thing with mewtwo. Lots of things can check it, but if they switch into the wrong the move, they risk a 2HKO. By ubers standards, I think bulky sub mons that resist water and can outspeed kyorge, are pretty good counters to that set. Not to mention if kyorge is using ST it has like a 33% chance to pick sheer cold and a 30% chance for it to hit. So it's not gonna hit as much as you think it is.
 
Poppy said:
Pokemon has elements of chance, that's how the game is. You can sway the odds in your favour, however, 30% sounds infeasible, but consider, as many have said before, that it's a 51% chance to KO at least one Pokemon over the use of two turns. Why would you attempt to use Sheer Cold on something like a DD Rayquaza? There's a niche use for Sheer Cold on Kyogre, and that Pokemon getting in for free? They risked a 30% chance of dying, 51% if they're slower. Just because it could go either way doesn't mean it's the definition of 'non-competitive', many a time has a game come down to a Focus Blast miss, a Scald burn, etc. Using Sheer Cold against offensive teams is a high risk, high reward strategy, but the risk is much higher, meaning you'll lose most of your games. Losing to a bunch of sequential Sheer Colds hitting may seem 'unfair' or whatever but there is nothing to differentiate that from 'competitively' losing to an Arceus crit or any other random roll of chance.

Also, more often than not there is a workaround to most things - Mamoswine can check as many Rayquaza as it wants, Yache Berry Rayquaza lacks the power to get through Ice Beam Arceus; almost no strategies are foolproof (and if there are some I'd like to know) and the metagame can usually adapt.
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Are you telling me that Ubers, the land of the game-ending setup sweepers, is going to simply accept a near-70% chance to let a Pokemon switch in and use whatever move it pleases? With some Pokemon, it's even a 49% chance to use two moves in a row absolutely for free. What if, for example, your opponent switches in DDquaza, uses DD, lives through both Sheer Cold attempts, and then sweeps you? Let's say one of your Sheer Colds works. What if they then switch in ANOTHER setup sweeper and do the same thing? It starts turning into a game of "are you feelin' lucky, punk". A successful setup can quite often, depending on the team in question, result in an immediate sweep with little to no recourse. And supposing you prepare for setup sweepers appropriately, what do you do about the powerful mixed/choice sets? They switch in on Sheer Cold, have a 70% chance to live, and then fire off whatever move they like-- and if your team is based around revenge killers for setup sweepers, chances are you're not going to have much to tank those choice moves.

It's either going to suck, or turn into a crapshoot. It's not like other moves because it's all or nothing with a low chance of happening. If you Scald something praying for a lucky burn, you get a little out of it even if it doesn't burn. If you Toxic something, you can expect it to poison a reasonable amount of the time, and it's generally a target for bulky Pokemon in any case so it's not a huge deal to miss once or twice. But OHKO moves turn the game into a nasty deal where one game a Pokemon can hard counter you, and the next you kill it instantly. And there's no skill involved with playing around their Pokemon, unless you consider prayer a skill. You yourself have demonstrated that it's very close to a 50-50 chance regarding who wins with every encounter between Sheer Cold Kyogre and any counter not named Shedinja. No skill there. It's not like where you use Fire Blast and have a 15% chance of having to rethink your game plan. A dead 50-50 chance means that who wins and who loses is entirely based on a coin flip, and this will happen every time you use Sheer Cold Kyogre (as opposed to more fringe cases like speed ties). If coin flips to determine a significant portion of battles isn't non-competitive, then I desperately need someone to tell me what is.
 
I don't see why I have to keep repeating myself, but you're thinking about it the wrong way. Any one who uses Sheer Cold intelligently will not try to rely on a 30% chance to attempt to kill a DD Rayquaza, that is not a reliable method. You use it on DEFENSIVE approaches, it's simple risk/reward. In some situations the reward of Sheer Cold far outweighs the risk, even if it misses the first two times - spamming it vs Gastrodon, what's it going to do back? Even Ferrothorn will not want to risk setting up hazards.

What you are saying shows an overall poor understanding of the greater depth of use that Sheer Cold has, why risk what you don't have to? If your team stupidly relies on Sheer Cold to beat DD Rayquaza or any other set up sweeper you deserve to lose, or only win 30% of your games. Reliability in team building is actually hugely important, if you want to rely on such a variable chance to workaround your Kyogre then by all means do so, things even out in the end. It's just another strategy.

Coin flips will not determine a significant amount of battles unless the players both rely on using a large amount of luck-based strategies. If both teams face off using 6 OHKO move users then yes, it's a crap-shoot. If one player using Hyper Offense vs a team of OHKO users than Hyper Offense will win almost every time.

OHKO is just another element of chance, and a legitimate strategy, as is using Darkrai, CM Ghost Arceus or simply anything that can win or lose based on a chance. Such is Pokemon.

Also Ubers is by no means endless set up sweepers, stall still exists, defensive play still exists, rain balance is still the most consistent style of play. You'd be stupid to argue otherwise.

alexwolf said:
Poppy how would the meta handle RestTalk Kyogre with Sheer Cold and Scald? Stall and balanced teams are fucked up by it, as Kyogre gets many switch in oportunities, has reliable healing, and the opponent does not have many dangerous set-up sweepers.

Against offensive teams, Kyogre can still find time to use Sheer Cold. Don't forget that physically defensive Kyogre walls/checks many pokes, such as Leftovers Ho-Oh, Dialga, Kyurem-W, Darkrai, Terrakion and some else, so he will still have his chances to abuse Sheer Cold. It's not as Scald is something to laugh at either, but the fact that Sheer Cold will butcher balanced and stall teams make it seem uncompetitive.
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As always, it's impossible to say for sure what will happen, but Sheer Cold Kyogre isn't unstoppable by any means, a lot of attacks CAN 2HKO it, and Rest is not reliable recovery. Certain workarounds can be done, Substitute Pressure Lugia beats this Kyogre 100% of the time if its Substitutes are EV'd to survive a Scald (as does Substitute Giratina). What we know to be the current conventional stall / defensive play would struggle with this set immensely, but adaptation is sure to happen, as it always does.

If your team is not prepared for Sheer Cold Kyogre then you deserve to lose to it, same with any other threat. At this point it does not seem that overwhelming preparations that leave you absurdly weak to anything that can be paired with Sheer Cold Kyogre (although who is to say there will not be when we test it?) for it to be considered a guaranteed, or even close to, way to win.
 
While Poppy indeed covered most of it, I'm not going to waste my response:

Yes, Acritter. You can look at that 70% of doing nothing the other way around though; those are 30% of guaranteed kill. Plus, in order for a setup sweeper to become dangerous, it HAS to setup first. As said in this thread many times, two Sheer Colds in a row have 51% to hit (don't ask me about the math I have no idea how they reached it), meaning that the odds are in your favor. Moreover, Scald can burn those threats, namely Rayquaza and Groudon, crippling them and making them almost useless. Not to mention, that Kyogre's EVs where 252 HP / 252 Def with a Bold nature, meaning that it will take ATLEAST two boosts to KO it with a physical move.

I do agree that OHKO moves are quite a double-edged sword. However, it's all a question of Risk vs Reward; are you willing to take those 70% (49% if used twice in a row) that the move will miss, giving your opponent a free turn? Looking at this like that, makes OHKO moves look awful. However, those 30% leftover pretty much guarantee you a kill. So again, Risk vs Reward is the main thing that takes place when talking about OHKO clause.
 
When a one-hit KO move is used twice, the probability of both them missing is 0.7 x 0.7, which is 0.49, or 49%. So it follows that the probability of at least one of them hitting is 1 - 0.49, which is 0.51, or 51%.

Anyway, here are some simulations of the new Übers metagame puregenius and I conducted yesterday, for those who are interested (I would have uploaded these logs on Aesoft if not for the fact that it is currently down).

Also, I honestly cannot wait for one-hit KO moves, Evasion and Moody to be usable on Pokémon Showdown's Ubers ladder. When people start to truly experience this stuff themselves in actual battles, rather than merely discussing theories in this thread, then given the assumption of sanity on the people's part of course, it should become evident that one-hit KO moves, Evasion and Moody are absolutely nothing special compared to what is already in the Übers metagame anyway (provided the Sleep Clause and the Species Clause remain, of course).
 
I'm curious, everyone's worried about Double Team, why is there no mention of Miracle Eye/Foresight as counters? The moves don't have great Ubers distribution, but Mewtwo and Luc can both spare the slot to shut down DT whores and make their STABs hit everything.

There's other counters, Terrakion and Scizor can both ignore evasion and are passable in Ubers, but Miracle Eye Mewtwo just seems obvious to me.
 
i doubt that would work
u need to spend a whole turn setting up miracle eye and endure a hit with mewtwo's bulk

there are just much more reliable methods for taking down a DTer

kyogre isnt exactly a hard pokemon to fit in a team. he brings rain to the table, which makes thunder always hit
thunder has a huge distribution

aura sphere also hits every time and finds its way into the move pool of mewtwo and luc, the two miracle eye users (mewtwo also gets thunder)

then there are ohko moves which arent affected by evasion boosts so you have a decent shot at taking the opponent out by using the move twice (51%)
 
Tank178 said:
One thing I forgot to ask, what would be the appropriate estimate for the a High Ladder Ranking?
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I will estimate around 1850 for the large scale reqs.

Hugin said:
I'm curious, everyone's worried about Double Team, why is there no mention of Miracle Eye/Foresight as counters? The moves don't have great Ubers distribution, but Mewtwo and Luc can both spare the slot to shut down DT whores and make their STABs hit everything.

There's other counters, Terrakion and Scizor can both ignore evasion and are passable in Ubers, but Miracle Eye Mewtwo just seems obvious to me.
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puregenius said it, I'll just rephrase it a bit: why waste a moveslot on a move such as Miracle Eye or Foresight, when you can use that slot for a move that can actually do damage and be accurate at the same time? Thunder is a common sight in Ubers, and Kyogre is still the "king" of the tier, so firing them off should not be a problem at all. And yes, Sacred Sword Terrakion will definitely see a rise with Evasion clause lifted, but it's definitely better than Miracle Eye Mewtwo.

Also puregenius, I'm not sure that OHKO moves aren't affected by Evasion boosting moves; they are not affected by Accuracy raising moves for sure though.
 
Great Job Smogon!

Once again you all have proved to be excellent people in trying to fix up the Ubers Tier.

One Question though. After serious discussion when you ban a pokemon to ubers is that the end for that pokemon in all other tiers?

Honestly i would really appreciate it i knew that the pokemon listed in the uber tier are checked regularly as well to see that if they really need to be in Uber.

I am not saying that you may want to consider removing arceus,rayquaza and stuff like that from ubers but pokemon like Thundurus have barely seen usage in ubers(wasted potential alert!) and i would personally love to know that you would also soon be testing the uber pokemon itself to see if they really need to be Uber.

Once again Great Job!
Love what you do for the metagames :)
 
Dwayne said:
One Question though. After serious discussion when you ban a pokemon to ubers is that the end for that pokemon in all other tiers?
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Firstly, no Pokemon will be banned from Ubers. Ubers is the land where every single Pokemon can roam free, and you're free to use everything you'd like, as long as it's released. We explicitly said so too in the OP of the thread. We're testing clauses: OHKO, Evasion, Sleep, Moody, etc.

Now, what we're lifting will not affect the lower tiers, as far as I know.
 
And then there came a sudden influx of MindReader+SC Articunos to Ubers, and all was well.

On a more serious note, the only time anyone hates OHKO moves is when they connect. Suddenly, the entire match might be altered because your sure-fire counter switch-in just got nuked.

I'll never say I like hax in the game. No one likes being beat by luck anymore than they like being beat by a gimmick. The point is, that GF decided to add the luck factor to the game. Granted, you can game the system a little bit, via certain moves and items, but overall, Skill will always beat luck, unless your skill relies on a bit of luck. Then you might be in trouble.
 
Dwayne said:
Honestly i would really appreciate it i knew that the pokemon listed in the uber tier are checked regularly as well to see that if they really need to be in Uber.

I am not saying that you may want to consider removing arceus,rayquaza and stuff like that from ubers but pokemon like Thundurus have barely seen usage in ubers(wasted potential alert!) and i would personally love to know that you would also soon be testing the uber pokemon itself to see if they really need to be Uber.
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A Pokemon's placement in the Uber tier is not dependent on how well it functions in the Uber tier. It's in Ubers because it was deemed too broken for OU. You can try to make the most use of it that you possibly can in Ubers, but the sad state of affairs is that not every Pokemon has a home. Sorry Thundurus-I, Kyurem, every other Pokemon in BL/BL2, and Pidgeot. But the placement of Pokemon into tiers isn't to realize the most potential out of the most Pokemon, it's to make a set of enjoyable metagames that people will actually play. After all, if no one plays in OU because they think Thundurus is breaking the metagame and it's not enjoyable, that's sort of wasting the potential of Politoed, Tyranitar, Dragonite, etc., isn't it?

That said, if certain Pokemon are considered likely to no longer be broken in OU (like our good friend Garchomp), they'll be tested in OU. That's not the concern of Ubers players, nor should it be, because you're allowed to use Pokemon from lower tiers in Ubers.
 
One thing I'm expecting to be really good this meta is Thundurus. No, I'm most certainly not talking about priority Double Team. What I am talking about is how it will be awesome during the Moody, Sleep, and OHKO clause phases. There isn't a single viable Moody user out there that Thundurus doesn't completely shut down, whether through Taunt or a possibly super-effective, infinitely accurate Thunder. Even if you let them get up a Substitute, Taunt goes through it, which will stop Smeargle at the very least. Then you have Thundurus's awesome Speed stat, which can outspeed all of the Moody users with no boosts and a few of them even at +1 or +2.

As for Sleep Clause, priority Substitute and Taunt means that Darkrai has to play around if it has a Scarf if it doesn't want to get shut down. It also works as a way to support Darkrai, by spoiling Lum Berries with Thunder Wave. Regardless of how bad we think they will do, people will also undoubtedly try out Breloom and possibly Amoonguss. Neither of them can really do much to Thundurus once Taunted, since Breloom doesn't have a moveslot to waste on Stone Edge or Rock Tomb. Amoonguss will probably have HP Ice, but once it is Taunted it's set-up bait for stuff like E-Killer Arceus.

Thundurus will fare the best in the OHKO clause testing phase, on paper at least. Kyogre, Suicune, Lapras, and Articuno are being talked about as the best users of Sheer Cold, and all of them are scared out by the threat of a powerful Thunder. While that won't work against Fissure users such as Excadrill and possibly Dugtrio or Groudon, it is mitigated by Thundurus's immunity to Fissure. While Horn Drill and Guillotine will still hit, those moves are very rare and I doubt we will be seeing much of them. Even so, all it takes is pairing Thundurus with something like Ghost Arceus or Giratina-O to make a solid anti-OHKO core.

The set I'm expecting to be popular will look something like this:

Thundurus @ Leftovers
Trait: Prankster
EVs: 252 SpA / 252 Spe / 4 SDef or something a bit bulkier
Timid Nature
- Substitute
- Taunt
- Thunder
- Thunder Wave / Hidden Power [Ice]

Of course, this is all based on theorymon since the testing hasn't started yet, but it will be very soon and I'm excited to try this set out.
 
Hawkstar said:
One thing I'm expecting to be really good this meta is Thundurus. No, I'm most certainly not talking about priority Double Team. What I am talking about is how it will be awesome during the Moody, Sleep, and OHKO clause phases. There isn't a single viable Moody user out there that Thundurus doesn't completely shut down, whether through Taunt or a possibly super-effective, infinitely accurate Thunder. Even if you let them get up a Substitute, Taunt goes through it, which will stop Smeargle at the very least. Then you have Thundurus's awesome Speed stat, which can outspeed all of the Moody users with no boosts and a few of them even at +1 or +2.

As for Sleep Clause, priority Substitute and Taunt means that Darkrai has to play around if it has a Scarf if it doesn't want to get shut down. It also works as a way to support Darkrai, by spoiling Lum Berries with Thunder Wave. Regardless of how bad we think they will do, people will also undoubtedly try out Breloom and possibly Amoonguss. Neither of them can really do much to Thundurus once Taunted, since Breloom doesn't have a moveslot to waste on Stone Edge or Rock Tomb. Amoonguss will probably have HP Ice, but once it is Taunted it's set-up bait for stuff like E-Killer Arceus.

Thundurus will fare the best in the OHKO clause testing phase, on paper at least. Kyogre, Suicune, Lapras, and Articuno are being talked about as the best users of Sheer Cold, and all of them are scared out by the threat of a powerful Thunder. While that won't work against Fissure users such as Excadrill and possibly Dugtrio or Groudon, it is mitigated by Thundurus's immunity to Fissure. While Horn Drill and Guillotine will still hit, those moves are very rare and I doubt we will be seeing much of them. Even so, all it takes is pairing Thundurus with something like Ghost Arceus or Giratina-O to make a solid anti-OHKO core.

The set I'm expecting to be popular will look something like this:

Thundurus @ Leftovers
Trait: Prankster
EVs: 252 SpA / 252 Spe / 4 SDef or something a bit bulkier
Timid Nature
- Substitute
- Taunt
- Thunder
- Thunder Wave / Hidden Power [Ice]

Of course, this is all based on theorymon since the testing hasn't started yet, but it will be very soon and I'm excited to try this set out.
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When Moody was allowed in Dream World, I did use a similar set on Thundurus (except I had Focus Blast instead of Substitute, and I used Life Orb). I gotta admit, It DID do a pretty good job of shutting down most moody Pokemon! The only real issue I had was when I faced a Smeargle that had a sub up and got an evasion boost, that was a pain in the ass. But otherwise, it did its job pretty well! It also helps that even without Moody, Thundurus itself is actually a pretty under rated Pokemon in Ubers heh. I didn't think about its potential against OHKO mons, but I think that if you are going to attempt that, it NEEDS HP Ice. While the test hasn't begun yet, I feel that Gliscor is going to be the most threatening OHKO mon in Ubers, and that uses Guillotine!
 
I think most people are approaching the OHKO clause with a wrong idea in mind. It's not banned because it is perceived to be overpowered, but rather because of how it minimizes skill involved. While certainly, using it in a smart way (not just spamming it on everything, using it to eliminate certain threats) will maximize the potential of the moves, they're still extremely luck reliant.

Basically, every turn, there's a random chance to do nothing or drop one of the opponent's pokemon. While risk management on the user's part can ensure that the misses aren't catastrophic, there's little that the defensive player can do (other than using a sturdy pokemon) to prevent the enemy from gaining advantage with a lucky hit.

While one could argue that using a heavy offensive team could minimize the risk that the OHKO move hits due to having less opportunities to hit, a fast or bulky OHKO sweeper could still potentially sweep through any team without much trouble, provided the sturdy pokemon are out of the way. It's very unlikely, but it is this unlikeness which causes the moves to be uncompetitive - luck decides whether they're useful or not. In fact, if they had 100 accuracy, they'd be much more skill based - more over centralizing as well, but quite obviously not luck based.

I don't think OHKO moves are inherently overpowered, but rather, they're simply too luck based - statistically, they're virtually useless without skillful use, but practically, it's simply too random - a game could be lost simply because the enemy had great luck with the OHKO accuracy, and there's not much the defending player could've done against it.

Personally, I'm against OHKO moves being allowed, ever. If they were changed somehow to require certain criteria to be met for them to work at all (e.g. Lock On/Mind Reader being used, accuracy boosts, etc), and upon meeting those criteria they'd work 100% of the time, they could possibly be balanced, but as it is, I don't think they can be incorporated into a competitive environment - its not that they're overpowered or that they eliminate any need for skill - certainly, a skilled player would still achieve more victories than a less skilled one in the grand scheme of things - but individual battles could simply be won or lost due to roll of the dice, which in my personal opinion is simply unacceptable.
 
Theorymon said:
When Moody was allowed in Dream World, I did use a similar set on Thundurus (except I had Focus Blast instead of Substitute, and I used Life Orb). I gotta admit, It DID do a pretty good job of shutting down most moody Pokemon! The only real issue I had was when I faced a Smeargle that had a sub up and got an evasion boost, that was a pain in the ass. But otherwise, it did its job pretty well! It also helps that even without Moody, Thundurus itself is actually a pretty under rated Pokemon in Ubers heh. I didn't think about its potential against OHKO mons, but I think that if you are going to attempt that, it NEEDS HP Ice. While the test hasn't begun yet, I feel that Gliscor is going to be the most threatening OHKO mon in Ubers, and that uses Guillotine!
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Oh yeah, I forgot about Gliscor. Yeah, you still outspeed it unless it's running a dumb Scarf set so HP Ice would probably be better in the last slot.
 
Apologies for the lateness of this -- I've been swamped with schoolwork. Jibaku and I have decided to extend this period before council applications because of the PS DDoS and subsequent reset of the ladders. The application thread will be posted at some point this weekend.

Note that, despite the fact that I'm extending this because of PS ratings, I still am much more pleased with taking people who make good and intelligent posts rather than people who just have a high ladder ranking. You can decide what to do with your time, but I'll just put that out there.
 
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