np: SM CAP Stage 2 - Kiss From a Rose [Necturna Nerfed]

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Deck Knight

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As promised, a proposal.

This is in addition to the removal of Phantom Force:

Stat Drop Proposal:

Old Statline: 64 / 120 / 100 / 85 / 120 / 81 [570 BST]
New Statline: 64 / 110 / 95 / 85 / 118 / 68 [540 BST]
Change: 0 / (-10) / (-5) / 0 / (-2) / (-13) [-30 BST]

Speed Drop:
The largest and most relevant drop vs. offensive checks. It changes Necturna's Speed tier so that at +2 Spe Adamant it hits 470 Speed, which puts it below Base 95 Scarfers, and at +2 Spe Jolly it hits 516 Speed, which puts it below Scarf Kartana (and the 108s). This effectively forces Necturna to run Jolly to not be outrun by common Scarf Pokemon in CAP.

Attack Drop:
A 10 point Attack reduction is not as radical as other proposals, but combined with the necessity to run Jolly represents a large cut to general damage output. A few calculations this combination of drops changes for defensive checks:

AV Tangrowth:
+2 252 Atk Necturna Never-Ending Nightmare (140 BP) vs. 248 HP / 8 Def Tangrowth: 333-393 (82.6 - 97.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Obviously if AV Tang can take a +2 NEN, Physically Defensive Tang fares even better.

Celesteela:
+2 252 Atk Necturna Never-Ending Nightmare (140 BP) vs. 248 HP / 28 Def Celesteela: 385-454 (96.9 - 114.3%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO after Leftovers recovery
+2 252 Atk Necturna Shadow Claw vs. 248 HP / 28 Def Celesteela: 193-228 (48.6 - 57.4%) -- 47.7% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery

The Z-Move can still OHKO, but Shadow Claw often fails to 2HKO and can't 2HKO at all if Celesteela makes a proper prediction on Protect.

Defensive Cyclohm:
+2 252 Atk Necturna Never-Ending Nightmare (140 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Cyclohm: 261-307 (62.1 - 73%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
+2 252 Atk Necturna Shadow Claw vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Cyclohm: 130-154 (30.9 - 36.6%) -- guaranteed 4HKO after Leftovers recovery

It requires two maximum rolls to get past Cyclohm with NEN + Shadow Claw unless Stealth Rock is up. Considering Necturna was a threat to sweep teams without rocks, this is a large change to how it is played.

Heatran (OU Specially Defensive) Never-Ending Nightmare 100.2 - 118.1% guaranteed OHKO after Leftovers recovery
Magearna (OU Assault Vest) Never-Ending Nightmare 99.4 - 117.3% 93.8% chance to OHKO
Slowbro-Mega (OU Mega Tank) Never-Ending Nightmare 98.9 - 117.2% 93.8% chance to OHKO
Celesteela (OU Defensive) Never-Ending Nightmare 96.9 - 114.3% 81.3% chance to OHKO after Leftovers recovery
Landorus-Therian (OU Choice Scarf) Never-Ending Nightmare 96.8 - 114.1% 81.3% chance to OHKO
Magearna (OU Calm Mind + Pain Split) Never-Ending Nightmare 96.6 - 114% 81.3% chance to OHKO
Gliscor (OU Defog) Never-Ending Nightmare 95.4 - 112.5% 68.8% chance to OHKO
Mawile-Mega (OU Swords Dance) Never-Ending Nightmare 95.4 - 112.5% 75% chance to OHKO
Mawile-Mega (OU All-out Attacker) Never-Ending Nightmare 95.4 - 112.5% 75% chance to OHKO
Kommo-o (OU Specially Defensive) Never-Ending Nightmare 94.3 - 111.2% 68.8% chance to OHKO after Leftovers recovery
Toxapex (OU The Pex) Never-Ending Nightmare 92.7 - 109.5% 56.3% chance to OHKO after Black Sludge recovery
Gliscor (OU Stealth Rock) Never-Ending Nightmare 91.4 - 108.2% 50% chance to OHKO
Gliscor (OU Swords Dance) Never-Ending Nightmare 91.4 - 108.2% 50% chance to OHKO
Clefable (OU Magic Guard) Never-Ending Nightmare 90.6 - 106.5% 43.8% chance to OHKO after Leftovers recovery
Clefable (OU Calm Mind) Never-Ending Nightmare 90.6 - 106.5% 43.8% chance to OHKO after Leftovers recovery
Ferrothorn (OU Hazard Setter) Never-Ending Nightmare 89.4 - 105.6% 37.5% chance to OHKO after Leftovers recovery
Venusaur-Mega (OU Defensive) Never-Ending Nightmare 86.7 - 102.4% 18.8% chance to OHKO
Scizor (OU Sweeper) Never-Ending Nightmare 86 - 101.4% 12.5% chance to OHKO
Zapdos (OU Defensive) Never-Ending Nightmare 85.6 - 101% 6.3% chance to OHKO after Leftovers recovery
2HKO Cutoff
Tangrowth (OU Assault Vest) Never-Ending Nightmare 82.6 - 97.5% guaranteed 2HKO
Bisharp (OU Swords Dance) Never-Ending Nightmare 74.9 - 88.1% guaranteed 2HKO
Staraptor (OU Choice Scarf) Power Whip 74.5 - 87.7% guaranteed 2HKO
Aggron (OU Mega Tank) Never-Ending Nightmare 70.8 - 83.3% guaranteed 2HKO
Landorus-Therian (OU Defensive) Never-Ending Nightmare 70.1 - 82.7% guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Skarmory (OU Physically Defensive) Never-Ending Nightmare 69.3 - 81.9% guaranteed 2HKO
Hydreigon (OU Darkinium Z) Never-Ending Nightmare 68.3 - 80.3% guaranteed 2HKO
Scizor-Mega (OU Sweeper) Never-Ending Nightmare 67.6 - 79.8% guaranteed 2HKO
Pyukumuku (OU Unaware Wall) Power Whip 66.8 - 78.9% guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Shuckle (OU Sticky Web Setter) Never-Ending Nightmare 66.3 - 78.6% guaranteed 2HKO
Chansey (OU Defensive) Power Whip 65.7 - 77.3% guaranteed 2HKO
Dragonite (OU Flyinium Z) Never-Ending Nightmare 65.3 - 77% guaranteed 2HKO
Tangrowth (OU Physically Defensive) Never-Ending Nightmare 64 - 75.4% guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Muk-Alola (OU Assault Vest) Never-Ending Nightmare 60 - 70.7% guaranteed 2HKO
Buzzwole (OU Bulk Up) Never-Ending Nightmare 59.5 - 70.3% guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Aggron-Mega (OU Mega Tank) Never-Ending Nightmare 56.8 - 66.7% guaranteed 2HKO
Avalugg (OU Physical Wall) Never-Ending Nightmare 49.7 - 58.8% 99.6% chance to 2HKO
Clefable (OU Unaware) Never-Ending Nightmare 45.1 - 53.5% 2% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Garchomp (OU Offensive Stealth Rock) Power Whip 101.6 - 119.8% guaranteed OHKO
Garchomp (OU Swords Dance) Power Whip 101.6 - 119.8% guaranteed OHKO
Garchomp (OU Mega Garchomp) Power Whip 101.6 - 119.8% guaranteed OHKO
Jirachi (OU Wish) Shadow Claw 101.2 - 119.1% guaranteed OHKO
Jirachi (OU Stealth Rock) Shadow Claw 101.2 - 119.1% guaranteed OHKO
Volcanion (OU Substitute) Power Whip 98.6 - 116.6% 93.8% chance to OHKO after Leftovers recovery
Conkeldurr (OU Offensive) Power Whip 96.5 - 113.7% 75% chance to OHKO
Mew (OU Defensive) Shadow Claw 96.2 - 113.7% 75% chance to OHKO after Leftovers recovery
Gyarados (OU Mega Dragon Dance) Power Whip 96 - 113.2% 75% chance to OHKO
Latias-Mega (OU Mega Calm Mind) Shadow Claw 95.6 - 112.6% 68.8% chance to OHKO
Latias-Mega (OU Roost + 3 Attacks) Shadow Claw 95.6 - 112.6% 68.8% chance to OHKO
Pelipper (OU Defensive) Power Whip 94.7 - 111.7% 68.8% chance to OHKO
Sableye-Mega (OU Utility) Power Whip 94.3 - 111.2% 68.8% chance to OHKO
Breloom (OU Not Kartana (Breloom)) Shadow Claw 93.4 - 110.3% 62.5% chance to OHKO
Volcarona (OU Quiver Dance) Shadow Claw 92.6 - 109.3% 56.3% chance to OHKO
Thundurus (OU Mixed Attacker) Shadow Claw 91.3 - 107.6% 43.8% chance to OHKO
Thundurus-Therian (OU Double Dance) Shadow Claw 91.3 - 107.6% 43.8% chance to OHKO
Thundurus (OU Nasty Plot) Shadow Claw 90.6 - 106.6% 43.8% chance to OHKO
Landorus-Therian (OU Suicide Lead) Power Whip 89.6 - 105.6% 37.5% chance to OHKO
Landorus-Therian (OU Offensive Z-Move) Power Whip 89.3 - 105.3% 31.3% chance to OHKO
Reuniclus (OU Double Dance) Shadow Claw 86.7 - 102.3% 18.8% chance to OHKO after Leftovers recovery
Garchomp-Mega (OU Mega Garchomp) Power Whip 86.3 - 101.6% 12.5% chance to OHKO
Heracross (OU Swords Dance) Shadow Claw 85.7 - 100.9% 6.3% chance to OHKO
Scolipede (OU Swords Dance) Shadow Claw 85.4 - 101.1% 12.5% chance to OHKO
Slowbro-Mega (OU Mega Tank) Power Whip 85.2 - 100.5% 6.3% chance to OHKO
2HKO Cutoff
Charizard (OU 3 Attacks + Roost) Shadow Claw 84.1 - 99.3% guaranteed 2HKO
Charizard (OU Drought Wallbreaker Y) Shadow Claw 83.8 - 98.9% guaranteed 2HKO
Charizard (OU Dragon Dance X) Shadow Claw 83.8 - 98.9% guaranteed 2HKO
Charizard-Mega-Y (OU Drought Wallbreaker Y) Shadow Claw 83.8 - 98.9% guaranteed 2HKO
Landorus-Therian (OU Choice Scarf) Power Whip 82.7 - 97.8% guaranteed 2HKO
Tornadus-Therian (OU Offensive Z-Move) Shadow Claw 82 - 96.3% guaranteed 2HKO
Gliscor (OU Defog) Power Whip 81.8 - 96.3% guaranteed 2HKO
Hawlucha (OU Terrain Seed Sweeper) Shadow Claw 80.3 - 94.7% guaranteed 2HKO
Toxapex (OU The Pex) Power Whip 79.2 - 93.7% guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
Gliscor (OU Stealth Rock) Power Whip 78.6 - 92.8% guaranteed 2HKO
Gliscor (OU Swords Dance) Power Whip 78.6 - 92.8% guaranteed 2HKO
Clefable (OU Magic Guard) Power Whip 77.6 - 91.6% guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Clefable (OU Calm Mind) Power Whip 77.6 - 91.6% guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Uxie (OU Trick Room Setter) Shadow Claw 76.2 - 90.3% guaranteed 2HKO
Pinsir (OU Wallbreaker) Shadow Claw 75.2 - 88.5% guaranteed 2HKO
Staraptor (OU Choice Scarf) Power Whip 74.5 - 87.7% guaranteed 2HKO
Salamence (OU Flyinium Z) Shadow Claw 73.7 - 87% guaranteed 2HKO
Serperior (OU Choice Scarf) Shadow Claw 72.5 - 85.9% guaranteed 2HKO
Serperior (OU Substitute Attacker) Shadow Claw 69.1 - 81.9% guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Tornadus-Therian (OU Pivot) Shadow Claw 67.4 - 79.5% guaranteed 2HKO
Pyukumuku (OU Unaware Wall) Power Whip 66.8 - 78.9% guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Mawile (OU Swords Dance) Shadow Claw 66.2 - 78.4% guaranteed 2HKO
Mawile (OU All-out Attacker) Shadow Claw 66.2 - 78.4% guaranteed 2HKO
Chansey (OU Defensive) Power Whip 65.7 - 77.3% guaranteed 2HKO
Volcarona (OU Bulky Quiver Dance) Shadow Claw 65.4 - 77.2% guaranteed 2HKO
Bisharp (OU Swords Dance) Power Whip 64.2 - 75.6% guaranteed 2HKO
Pinsir-Mega (OU Wallbreaker) Shadow Claw 64.2 - 75.6% guaranteed 2HKO
Magnezone (OU Choice Specs) Shadow Claw 64.1 - 75.8% guaranteed 2HKO
Magnezone (OU Substitute Z) Shadow Claw 64 - 75.8% guaranteed 2HKO
Tapu Bulu (OU Choice Band) Shadow Claw 64 - 75.8% guaranteed 2HKO
Magnezone (OU Choice Scarf) Shadow Claw 63.6 - 75.2% guaranteed 2HKO
Charizard-Mega-X (OU 3 Attacks + Roost) Shadow Claw 62.6 - 74% guaranteed 2HKO
Charizard-Mega-X (OU Dragon Dance X) Shadow Claw 62.6 - 73.7% guaranteed 2HKO
Kartana (OU Paper Plane (Choice Scarf)) Shadow Claw 61.5 - 73% guaranteed 2HKO
Kartana (OU Paper Press (Choice Band)) Shadow Claw 61.5 - 73% guaranteed 2HKO
Kartana (OU Paper Cut (Swords Dance)) Shadow Claw 61.5 - 73% guaranteed 2HKO
Azumarill (OU Perish Trap) Shadow Claw 60.8 - 71.5% guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Aggron (OU Mega Tank) Power Whip 60.6 - 71.7% guaranteed 2HKO
Heracross-Mega (OU Swords Dance) Shadow Claw 60.1 - 71% guaranteed 2HKO
Magearna (OU Shift Gear) Shadow Claw 60.1 - 71% guaranteed 2HKO
Landorus-Therian (OU Defensive) Power Whip 59.9 - 70.9% guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Heatran (OU Z-Move Trapper) Shadow Claw 59.7 - 70.5% guaranteed 2HKO
Heatran (OU Steelium Z) Shadow Claw 59.7 - 70.5% guaranteed 2HKO
Amoonguss (OU Defensive) Shadow Claw 59.3 - 70.3% guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
Venusaur (OU Defensive) Shadow Claw 58.9 - 69.6% guaranteed 2HKO
Hydreigon (OU Darkinium Z) Power Whip 58.4 - 68.9% guaranteed 2HKO
Cresselia (OU Trick Room) Shadow Claw 58.2 - 69% guaranteed 2HKO
Shuckle (OU Sticky Web Setter) Power Whip 56.9 - 67.6% guaranteed 2HKO
Moltres (OU Pressure) Shadow Claw 55.7 - 65.9% guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Amoonguss (OU Assault Vest) Shadow Claw 55.5 - 65.5% guaranteed 2HKO
Kommo-o (OU Belly Drum) Shadow Claw 55.5 - 65.4% guaranteed 2HKO
Kyurem (OU SubRoost) Shadow Claw 54.8 - 64.6% guaranteed 2HKO
Kyurem-Black (OU Z-Move) Shadow Claw 52.1 - 61.3% guaranteed 2HKO
Kyurem-Black (OU LO KB) Shadow Claw 52.1 - 61.3% guaranteed 2HKO
Zapdos (OU Roost + 3 Attacks) Shadow Claw 51.9 - 61.3% 97.7% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Tapu Bulu (OU Specially Defensive) Shadow Claw 51.8 - 61.5% 97.7% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Muk-Alola (OU Assault Vest) Power Whip 51.5 - 60.7% guaranteed 2HKO
Heatran (OU Specially Defensive) Shadow Claw 50.5 - 59.3% 78.5% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Magearna (OU Assault Vest) Shadow Claw 49.8 - 58.9% 99.6% chance to 2HKO
Magearna (OU Calm Mind + Pain Split) Shadow Claw 48.7 - 57.3% 93.4% chance to 2HKO
Celesteela (OU Defensive) Shadow Claw 48.6 - 57.4% 47.7% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Mawile-Mega (OU Swords Dance) Shadow Claw 48.1 - 56.8% 90.2% chance to 2HKO
Mawile-Mega (OU All-out Attacker) Shadow Claw 48.1 - 56.8% 90.2% chance to 2HKO
Kommo-o (OU Specially Defensive) Shadow Claw 47.4 - 55.9% 21.5% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Ferrothorn (OU Hazard Setter) Shadow Claw 45.1 - 53.1% 0.4% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Venusaur-Mega (OU Defensive) Shadow Claw 43.8 - 51.5% 9% chance to 2HKO
Scizor (OU Sweeper) Shadow Claw 43.1 - 51% 4.7% chance to 2HKO
Zapdos (OU Defensive) Shadow Claw 43 - 50.9% guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
Avalugg (OU Physical Wall) Power Whip 42.8 - 50.5% 2% chance to 2HKO
3HKO Cutoff
Tangrowth (OU Assault Vest) Shadow Claw 41.6 - 49.1% guaranteed 3HKO
Clefable (OU Unaware) Power Whip 38.8 - 45.9% guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
Skarmory (OU Physically Defensive) Shadow Claw 35.1 - 41.4% guaranteed 3HKO
Scizor-Mega (OU Sweeper) Shadow Claw 34.1 - 40.2% guaranteed 3HKO
Dragonite (OU Flyinium Z) Shadow Claw 32.5 - 38.6% 98.9% chance to 3HKO
Tangrowth (OU Physically Defensive) Shadow Claw 32 - 37.9% 0.3% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
Buzzwole (OU Bulk Up) Shadow Claw 30.1 - 35.4% guaranteed 4HKO after Leftovers recovery
Aggron-Mega (OU Mega Tank) Shadow Claw 28.2 - 33.5% 0.2% chance to 3HKO


Defenses drop:
While these drops are minor, they also make rolls banking on remaining with at least 25%+1 HP more suspect. The only calculation that would be relevant to the sample battles is that if Celesteela had used Heavy Slam instead of Flamethrower, Necturna would always be too weakened to set up a Substitute afterward [0 Atk Celesteela Heavy Slam (120 BP) vs. -1 0 HP / 0 Def Necturna: 204-241 (75.8 - 89.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO ]. Suffice to say, part of what makes the Shell Smash set dangerous is its ability to tank a hit at -1 and still be able to set up a Substitute. Even if the number of rolls effected is small, it still changes the math.

Summary:
These changes significantly alter the offensive counterplay to Shell Smash Necturna without drastically impacting the performance of all Necturna sets. They also modestly expand defensive counterplay options or require the setting of hazards to achieve similar gamestates to before the changes, bringing Necturna in line with other Z-Move sweepers. Necturna is still capable of being a powerful sweeping threat and using the surprise value of its Sketch slot to great effect.
 
The council has gathered and made a decision. This post will serve to outline our discussion and announce nerfs. Here is nerfed Necturna:


Necturna
Ability: Forewarn (Telepathy)
Stats: 64 HP / 120 Atk / 100 Def / 85 SpA / 120 SpD / 58 Spe | BST: 547 (removed 23 Speed)
Movepool Removals: Phantom Force

Tagging Kris for implementation on Pokemon Showdown! (don't complex ban it, it can be completely removed from its natural movepool, because it was added during gen 7 updates)

This time, I will give a summary of our discussion, rather than post extensive Discord logs. And for anyone wondering, yes I was able to make it this time.

So, first of all we assessed what the main issue with Necturna was.

We all agreed that the main issue with Necturna was that it had an amazing matchup against offensive teams, while simultaneously having an amazing matchup against defensive teams. This also resulted in it being an over centralizing force with very few answers, which were all offensive.

After that, we assessed what the main things were that caused these problems, it came down to Necturna's amazing Speed tier and obnoxious power level. Because of this, we first looked at the possibility to lower Necturna's power level, this could be done by removing Phantom Force or lowering its Attack stat a lot. We all agreed that lowering its Attack stat by a large margin rather than simply removing Phantom Force would result in us leaving no possibility for other sets to exist, so we voted, and decided that removing Phantom Force was better.

We also talked about removing Substitute to prevent Necturna from punishing sack plays and make Sucker Punch safer against it, but decided that the precedent for removing Substitute was too weak to follow through with and it was unnecessary in general, while Sucker Punch as counterplay would still be too weak, especially considering the amount of Sucker Punch users.

After that, we assessed whether this would also affect Necturna's matchup against offensive teams, and agreed that it did not at all, so we looked into lowering Necturna's Speed stat. We discussed three of the suggested Speed stats that got the most support, 44 Speed, 58 Speed, and 67 Speed. We agreed that 44 Speed would leave far too much opportunity cost to Necturna, being unable to outspeed Mega Alakazam at +2, even with a Jolly nature, as well as Tornadus-T with an Adamant nature. Then, we discussed 58 Speed and 67 Speed, and came to the conclusion that 67 Speed would not get the job done properly, because 67 Speed would not encourage dropping Substitute for Shadow Sneak at all, because it would just run a Jolly nature to outspeed base 95 Speed Choice Scarf users, and would thus not sufficiently increase the pool of revenge killers to pick from, so we looked into 58 Speed. It should be noted that, although forcing Necturna to run a Jolly nature is technically a nerf, it does not effectively change defensive counterplay, so we decided that it would not be enough to weight out the fact that it could outspeed base 95 Choice Scarf users with this. We all agreed that 58 Speed was the most plausible option, still allowing Necturna to outspeed Mega Alakazam at +2 with a Jolly nature, while being outsped by base 95 Speed Choice Scarf users like Volkraken, Tapu Lele, and Colossoil.

After this, we asked ourselves whether we felt like these nerfs sufficiently adressed the main issues with Necturna, and unanimously agreed that this would be enough.

Also, please note that we as a council have agreed to be open to revisiting Necturna if it remains too good.
 
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