★ np: SS UU Stage 6: Lucky Star (Jirachi BANNED & Chansey UNBANNED)

[BigFatMantis]

Nice try to disguise a 0,08% probability as a fun video on a thread with arguments to keep jirachi or not. I'm sure this video doesn't trigger confirmation biais. We are traumatised one time by iron flinch then we seem to be led by our trauma for this suspect. We have to remember basic math and mechanics.
1 flinche: 60% vs 2 stones edges in a row: 64%
2 flinches: 36% vs 3 stones edges in a row: 51%
3 flinches: 21% vs 4 stones edges in a row: 64%
4 flinches: 12% vs 5 stones edges in a row: 33%

This is actually incorrect. Probability rules differentiate dependent from independent events. Each turn in Pokemon is an independent event from a previous turn. That means that, on each turn you use Iron Head, you will always have a 60% chance to flinch, even if you already flinched the last turn. The previous turn does not influence it.

So, your probability is NOT 36% for a second consecutive flinch. It's 60% again. That's why, in practice, you will see many many consecutive flinches in a row, because each turn resets the probability to 60% again. You will almost definitely see two consecutive flinches moreso than not flinching. In theory it feels like this shouldn't happen, as you just laid out, but it is a common misconception to relate independent events together to reduce their probability. Just because you got 3 flinches in a row already, you are still more likely to get another flinch again on the next turn. Let me break it down further:

If you use Iron Head 10 times, then in theory you should flinch 6 out of the 10 times, right? Probability rules say yes. Now when you put it into practice, you may actually get 6 out of 10 flinches, but the order will likely be different every time. You may get 6 flinches in a row and then 4 non-flinches in a row. So assessing a lower probability based on consecutive actions would be incorrect.

16 flinches in a row is extremely unlikely of course.

 

[by the book]

So, your probability is NOT 36% for a second consecutive flinch. It's 60% again. That's why, in practice, you will see many many consecutive flinches in a row, because each turn resets the probability to 60% again. You will almost definitely see two consecutive flinches moreso than not flinching. In theory it feels like this shouldn't happen, as you just laid out, but it is a common misconception to relate independent events together to reduce their probability. Just because you got 3 flinches in a row already, you are still more likely to get another flinch again on the next turn. Let me break it down further:

Hi, math/physics guy here, normally a lurker but just came to point out that this isn't quite right, even though I'm very pro-ban on Jirachi (it's a very limiting Pokemon in way too many ways to count).

You won't see two consecutive flinches more than any other outcome. The chance to see two consecutive flinches from any particular decision point is exactly as Bad Feeling said--36%. However, like you say, once you've gotten hit by a flinch, the chance to get hit by another flinch is indeed 60%.

This doesn't mean that the chance of two consecutive flinches is higher than 36%, though--there can only be a "second" flinch if there has been a "first," which means you're in that 60% probability space where the first flinch did happen already. The chance hasn't changed--the decision point has moved.


Let me put it in concrete Pokemon terms.

Let's say you're down to a 1v1 endgame with a Scarf Jirachi against an 80%-health max-Atk Rhyperior. You need to land three Iron Heads to KO, which means you need to flinch twice since EQ OHKOs.

From here, your chance to win the game is 36%.
40% of the time from this position, though, you lose the game immediately, and 64% of the time, you lose the game overall.

If you land one Iron Head flinch, then of course your chance to win the game from that point updates, to 60%--but this updated percentage does not retroactively change the fact that on the previous turn, you had a 40% chance to lose the game. Nothing changed about the previous odds--this is just a new decision point.

If you have this situation happen across 10 thousand games, on average, 4,000 Rhyperiors will win the game in one turn, and 6,000 of those Rhyperiors will get flinched.

For those 6,000 Rhyperiors, there's now a 60% chance that Jirachi wins the game with a second flinch.
This means that of those 6,000, on average about 60% of them, or 3,600, will lose the game.

That's where the 36% comes in. Out of the original 10,000 Rhyperiors, only 3,600 of them lost the game on average. The other 6,400 actually won.

It's impossible to measure the impact of Iron Head in a single game or even a dozen games because of variance, and it will always feel much higher than 36% when we're on the receiving end of a loss. Even 10,000 games is a relatively small sample size--the idea is that the more games that are played on the PO server, the more the averages will work out, and those consecutive chances will reflect in the results.

Hope that clears things up!

 

[BigFatMantis]

Hi, math/physics guy here, normally a lurker but just came to point out that this isn't quite right, even though I'm very pro-ban on Jirachi (it's a very limiting Pokemon in way too many ways to count).

You won't see two consecutive flinches more than any other outcome. The chance to see two consecutive flinches from any particular decision point is exactly as Bad Feeling said--36%. However, like you say, once you've gotten hit by a flinch, the chance to get hit by another flinch is indeed 60%.

This doesn't mean that the chance of two consecutive flinches is higher than 36%, though--there can only be a "second" flinch if there has been a "first," which means you're in that 60% probability space where the first flinch did happen already. The chance hasn't changed--the decision point has moved.


Let me put it in concrete Pokemon terms.

Let's say you're down to a 1v1 endgame with a Scarf Jirachi against an 80%-health max-Atk Rhyperior. You need to land three Iron Heads to KO, which means you need to flinch twice since EQ OHKOs.

From here, your chance to win the game is 36%.
40% of the time from this position, though, you lose the game immediately, and 64% of the time, you lose the game overall.

If you land one Iron Head flinch, then of course your chance to win the game from that point updates, to 60%--but this updated percentage does not retroactively change the fact that on the previous turn, you had a 40% chance to lose the game. Nothing changed about the previous odds--this is just a new decision point.

If you have this situation happen across 10 thousand games, on average, 4,000 Rhyperiors will win the game in one turn, and 6,000 of those Rhyperiors will get flinched.

For those 6,000 Rhyperiors, there's now a 60% chance that Jirachi wins the game with a second flinch.
This means that of those 6,000, on average about 60% of them, or 3,600, will lose the game.

That's where the 36% comes in. Out of the original 10,000 Rhyperiors, only 3,600 of them lost the game on average. The other 6,400 actually won.

It's impossible to measure the impact of Iron Head in a single game or even a dozen games because of variance, and it will always feel much higher than 36% when we're on the receiving end of a loss. Even 10,000 games is a relatively small sample size--the idea is that the more games that are played on the PO server, the more the averages will work out, and those consecutive chances will reflect in the results.

Hope that clears things up!

Thanks for clearing this up - I had a bad feeling (no pun intended) that I wasn't really laying it out as accurately as it really was. It's sort of what I was trying to say though - every new Iron Head is its own 60% flinch chance. That was the main point I was trying to get across - but I probably skewed some of the other stuff along the way.

 

[Bad feeling]

I appreciate the time you put into this post and I know you’re a fine player since I’ve seen you play and innovate. I know it’s frustrating to see people put videos that don’t really contribute to the discussion, so thank you for actually trying to engage in thoughtful arguments. Two things about your list:

1. Your hard counters are pretty mediocre Pokemon in their own right. Umbreon and Steelix are definitely viable, but still stuck in the B and C ranks, they have big issues letting in common Pokemon like Keldeo in and it’s hard to use these mons outside of full stall. Stuff like Bisharp which is also hard to counter isn’t commonly thought as broken (it might be though) because it’s counters are top tier Pokemon already like Cobalion and Keldeo.
2. The fact that Jirachi has so many sets means a counter to one set might get demolished by another, your list actually reflects that, for example, Skarmory which can counter some purely physical sets is actually **countered** by nearly any Special Jirachi.

1. It's a valid point, we all agree with the fact jirachi is a top threat (one of the best pokemon here). But i'm not sharing your position, i don't think a Pokemon is broken because is versatile but because he is an autowin.
2. PIF, you are saying no more than i already said: they're checks. In my opinion a Pokemon with too many checks and few full counter is not an issue because you will always have a natural answer to deal with him.

My feeling is jirachi fits well in UU.

 

[FloopThePig]

I think people are being unfair to the more recent anti-ban posts, so I'm going to expound on their arguments.

I personally don't see Jirachi's versatility as a major reason for it to be banned. It's true that Jirachi can bypass all its checks with the right set, but people are giving this argument too much credit. Jirachi doesn't have a lot of initial damage, so it isn't too difficult to scout for, and guessing wrong doesn't always make you lose a Pokémon or lose the game.

Compare this to Pokémon like Aegislash* or Magearna in OU. Both are capable of running multiple sets and guessing wrong means you often lose a Pokémon or get swept. Plenty of Pokémon can scout Jirachi's set, and guessing wrong doesn't always put you at a disadvantage to the point you automatically lose something huge. Gengar and Haxorus are even less versatile and more punishing than Jirachi, but they can bypass all their checks with only 2-3 sets giving each set a lower opportunity cost. The way I see it, Jirachi is more comparable to gen 7 Landorus where both are strong and versatile, capable of beating most/all of their checks with the right set, but the risk/reward of scouting/guessing incorrectly isn't skewed in their favor and the higher opportunity cost of using one set means they lose out on something.

However, Jirachi has something Lando doesn't have: hax. I don't think Jirachi getting 3 or more flinches is a good pro-ban argument, but rather than 1-2 consecutive flinches on crucial targets which happens often enough for me to include it. Even though I don't think Jirachi's RNG is too strong since relying on it to break through checks can sometimes screw you over, I consider it quite uncompetitive. Using hax to bypass a weakened Incineroar or Obstagoon with one or two flinches may sound nice, but not getting the flinch means Jirachi gets punished hard. However, this is still uncompetitive. Although the risk/reward for hax isn't skewed in Jirachi's favor when it comes to Jirachi beating its checks, it doesn't require skill to perform.

I still don't think Jirachi is banworthy enough for UU atm, but if it does get banned, I would be ok with it on the basis of its uncompetitiveness.

*EDIT: Aegislash in UU

 

[Lily]

Haven't rly been addressing anti-ban posts bc people beat me to it but I think this one's good and I'd like to give my opinion on it.

I personally don't see Jirachi's versatility as a major reason for it to be banned. It's true that Jirachi can bypass all its checks with the right set, but people are giving this argument too much credit. Jirachi doesn't have a lot of initial damage, so it isn't too difficult to scout for, and guessing wrong doesn't always make you lose a Pokémon or lose the game.

While this is true on the Choice Scarf set or Wish set, it's not true for the Calm Mind, Mixed Wallbreaker, or even SubToxic sets - their immediate power isn't the issue, it's that you often have to shuffle through ~3-4 Pokemon to scout for, and one wrong prediction (for example, you go Rotom-W after they bring Jirachi in on Galarian Weezing, and instead of psychic/iron head they click energy ball) can really set you on the back foot. It doesn't always mean you instalose, but it does mean that the Jirachi user is far ahead and they often can win just off one turn. Combine this with the fact that any amount of situations can happen in a game - for example, you could get late-game swept by a CM Jirachi that you thought was mixed and it blows past your Incineroar or something - and you've got a Pokemon that's not only infuriating but also unhealthy.

Compare this to Pokémon like Aegislash or Magearna in OU. Both are capable of running multiple sets and guessing wrong means you often lose a Pokémon or get swept. Plenty of Pokémon can scout Jirachi's set, and guessing wrong doesn't always put you at a disadvantage to the point you automatically lose something huge. Gengar and Haxorus are even less versatile and more punishing than Jirachi, but they can bypass all their checks with only 2-3 sets giving each set a lower opportunity cost. The way I see it, Jirachi is more comparable to gen 7 Landorus where both are strong and versatile, capable of beating most/all of their checks with the right set, but the risk/reward of scouting/guessing incorrectly isn't skewed in their favor and the higher opportunity cost of using one set means they lose out on something.

Most teams won't instantly lose a Pokemon to Aegislash in OU bc its blanket checks are quite common and good unlike Jirachi; for example, Corviknight might take a lot of damage from a Specs Shadow Ball after expecting a physical set, but it can handle it decently enough, so it's not really out of commission. Mandibuzz can just wall every Aegi, Toxapex and Amoonguss are fine for scouting thanks to Regenerator, and so on. Magearna is uhh... banned, largely for the same reasons we're suspecting Rachi here. Yes, plenty of Pokemon can scout Jirachi's set and live to tell the tale; Slowking is an excellent example of this, being able to stomach even Thunder and Teleport out into something that can offensively check Jirachi. But then it can Calm Mind or Substitute or something and you're immediately in a poor position for making the "correct" play. Gengar and Haxorus aren't really comparable because unlike Jirachi they didn't really have answers to begin with, and the Lando thing is a little off because well, you often *do* lose out on a lot by scouting Lando incorrectly (using Tangrowth to scout Scarf only to get blown away by Supersonic Skystrike for example).

Fwiw, the argument here isn't that Jirachi has no answers; all of its sets have some (though I wouldn't say bad feeling's list is accurate by any means), but the issue is that the strongest ones are just bad mons in the current meta and that the good mons that check it only check one or two sets. It ends up getting to a point where the Jirachi user is basically always favoured over the non-Jirachi user and most top players would agree that you really can't build a truly viable team without a Jirachi on it.

I'm not gonna go over the flinching point bc it's been done to death but yeah you're right.

~~~

All of this isn't really grounds for it being objectively broken, but its usage, winrate, versatility and reliability make it far too easy to just throw a Jirachi on a team. In fact, the fact that it's sort of impossible to build a truly excellent team (that isn't some form of cheese offense) without a Jirachi on it is unhealthy, restricting, and a very bad influence on teambuilding. It's not always about being the strongest threat or the one with the lowest amount of viable checks, there's a bigger picture here; the tier would have more options without Jirachi (considering how many mons it invalidates on its own, which is another point entirely) which in my opinion is good for UU. Thank you for making your post FloopThePig, it's great to see a well-constructed anti-ban argument and I hope we see more, and I hope this sheds some more light on how the pro-ban side feels.

 

[FloopThePig]

While this is true on the Choice Scarf set or Wish set, it's not true for the Calm Mind, Mixed Wallbreaker, or even SubToxic sets - their immediate power isn't the issue, it's that you often have to shuffle through ~3-4 Pokemon to scout for, and one wrong prediction (for example, you go Rotom-W after they bring Jirachi in on Galarian Weezing, and instead of psychic/iron head they click energy ball) can really set you on the back foot. It doesn't always mean you instalose, but it does mean that the Jirachi user is far ahead and they often can win just off one turn. Combine this with the fact that any amount of situations can happen in a game - for example, you could get late-game swept by a CM Jirachi that you thought was mixed and it blows past your Incineroar or something - and you've got a Pokemon that's not only infuriating but also unhealthy.

This is a good point, but I didn't really bother adding it because prediction goes both ways. All it takes s one right prediction for many Pokémon to win. For example, Skarmory can't really check special/mixed sets, but it can scout most of the sets. At worst, it gets hit with a Thunder, but how often would you face a special/mixed Jirachi, and how often among those times would they predict what you would use to scout? Even then, it's not uncommon to have multiple Pokémon in a team that can scout Jirachi's set. That said if Jirachi predicts wrong, it's not as punished as hard, so I see what you mean. And If you add up all factors like usage, RNG, versatility, predictions, etc. it can make Jirachi too much, so I understand your point.

Most teams won't instantly lose a Pokemon to Aegislash in OU

I meant Aegislash in UU. Edited my post so it won't be misunderstood. Thanks for pointing it out.

 

[Artzu✪]

As is obvious and evident, we are currently going through a suspect test. Despite this, I would like to take some attention away to show off a fun spread I found. I don't usually do this or post here, but we were blessed with a beautiful pokemon that seems to kinda go under the radar of most. So, without further adieu, and to those who are interested: Here's improved WP Ttar

Tyranitar @ Weakness Policy
Ability: Sand Stream
EVs: 104 Atk / 192 SpD / 212 Spe
Jolly Nature
- Stone Edge
- Crunch
- Earthquake
- Dragon Dance

The set itself is pretty straight forward. You have dragon dance, STABs and coverage. Importantish to note is carrying Super Power over EQ allows you to hit threats such as Umbreon and Pangoro harder, who otherwise can survive one of your hits and harm, if not kill this mountain-destroying beast.

Now, getting in to the meat of this spread, I've chosen 212 Spe with a jolly nature in order to outspeed Base 108's and slower at +1. This would include (but not limited to) Terrakion, Cobalion and Keldeo. Alternatively, 220 Spe (8 EV's pulled from your atk) with jolly nature allow you to outspeed Lycandusk at +1 as well.

As for the SpD, I hope you wouldn't mind letting the calcs do the explaining for me.

44 SpA Rotom-Wash Hydro Pump vs. 0 HP / 192 SpD Tyranitar in Sand: 144-170 (42.2 - 49.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252 SpA Rotom-Wash Hydro Pump vs. 0 HP / 192 SpD Tyranitar in Sand: 174-206 (51 - 60.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

252 SpA Keldeo Scald vs. 0 HP / 192 SpD Tyranitar in Sand: 146-174 (42.8 - 51%) -- 2.7% chance to 2HKO
252 SpA Keldeo Hydro Pump vs. 0 HP / 192 SpD Tyranitar in Sand: 200-236 (58.6 - 69.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

252 SpA Celebi Giga Drain vs. 0 HP / 192 SpD Tyranitar in Sand: 116-138 (34 - 40.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252 SpA Celebi Leaf Storm vs. 0 HP / 192 SpD Tyranitar in Sand: 198-234 (58 - 68.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

252 SpA Chandelure Energy Ball vs. 0 HP / 192 SpD Tyranitar in Sand: 120-142 (35.1 - 41.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252 SpA Choice Specs Chandelure Energy Ball vs. 0 HP / 192 SpD Tyranitar in Sand: 178-210 (52.1 - 61.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

4 SpA Slowking Scald vs. 0 HP / 192 SpD Tyranitar in Sand: 98-116 (28.7 - 34%) -- 0.9% chance to 3HKO

0 SpA Pixilate Sylveon Hyper Voice vs. 0 HP / 192 SpD Tyranitar in Sand: 140-168 (41 - 49.2%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252+ SpA Choice Specs Pixilate Sylveon Hyper Voice vs. 0 HP / 192 SpD Tyranitar in Sand: 288-338 (84.4 - 99.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Essentially, you are faced with very few Specially Offensive threats.
Now please be patient with me, as I am aware of a few flaws. Namely, Keldeo carrying secret sword or being scarfed as well as scald burns.
Sadly, we do not survive secret sword. That's why we scout for a choice locked Keldeo. A scarfed Keldeo will still naturally outspeed you at +1, but Earthquake will do a chunk at +2(WP boost) after sandstorm damage, and a hard gamble can be taken on hydro's miss chance in an attempt to go +2 in speed. This however should only be considered in the event that you have no answers to Keldeo available.

Naturally, we cannot pretend that scald does not burn, but statistically odds would be in your favor to tank one or two without getting burned right? :)
Well, realistically we all know better. :(
However, it is important to note that burns are not guaranteed and, with the WP boost on top of a single DD you will still be going plus on Atk despite not being at full potential. Lum Berry, naturally, is still an option; but I have found it to be a lot less successful and a lot more lackluster than WP.

Other positive things to look out for are switch outs! Naturally they allow you to get +1 for free, but also uturn is another nice and free way to proc your Weakness Policy. With that in mind, you can consider opposing Noiverns one of the best pokemon to set up under.

This more-or-less concludes my findings with ttar, and I kinda hope to see more use of the mon.
If there are any refinements to be made with this particular spread, I would be very interested in being informed.

 

[DICE.549]

ju

Nice try to disguise a 0,08% probability as a fun video on a thread with arguments to keep jirachi or not. I'm sure this video doesn't trigger confirmation biais. We are traumatised one time by iron flinch then we seem to be led by our trauma for this suspect. We have to remember basic math and mechanics.
1 flinche: 60% vs 2 stones edges in a row: 64%
2 flinches: 36% vs 3 stones edges in a row: 51%
3 flinches: 21% vs 4 stones edges in a row: 41%
4 flinches: 12% vs 5 stones edges in a row: 33%

We know how hard is hitting 2 stones edges in row,

I listed for you common checks and counters and no weird pokemon like Shedinja (but damn he is good to deal with jirachi).

Counters:

Hard Checks:

(restalk)

(restalk roar bar CM Aurasphere)

(bar fire punch)

(bar CM shadowball)

(bar fire/fighting move)

Checks:
-Physical jirachi:

-Mixed support Jirachi:

-Special Jirachi:

(perish song or cm/leech seed variants)

(av only)

(bar energy ball)

(its sucks)

(bar shadow ball)

Subtoxic:

(bar drain/fire punch)

(bar drain punch)

RK:

(scarf)

Even with Jirachi versatility we have a diversity of choice to deal with him pretty well, Lucks factors is a thing but we overwhelming flinch's rates and they're not too big or stone edge is an accurately move. We have more chance to hits 2 stones edges than flinch one time with jirachi. We have to conclude two things here, use more stone edge and jirachi is not ban worthy.

#teamjirachi

ps: i don't answer about the tricky trick argument, all pokemon with trick have virtually no counter.

while jirachi is bulky , it doesn't have recovery , a million checks as in the post above and can easily be worn out by u-turn , it is good , top tier but not broken , tier 0

 

[467 11 11p]

I will be voting Ban on Jirachi because of what I believe to be its most broken set.

CM Rachi

Jirachi @ Leftovers / Ebelt
Ability: Serene Grace
EVs: 4 Def / 252 SpA / 252 Spe or 32 Def / 252 SpA / 224 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Calm Mind
- Psyshock/Psychic
- Aura Sphere
- Thunderbolt/Thunder/Energy Ball/Shadow Ball

This Jirachi set can deal with any team. Due to its grand moveset, most of Jirachi's defensive answers will be taking a huge chunk 2hko and with the chip/rocks it has to chance to OHKO with help from chip/rocks. Even with running none or little bulk, it can survive almost all of its checks while also taking no damage from the 2 biggest hazards in this tier tpikes and rocks.

Offensive Calcs

+1 252 SpA Jirachi Aura Sphere vs. 248 HP / 68+ SpD Incineroar: 202-238 (51.3 - 60.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
+2 252 SpA Jirachi Aura Sphere vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Incineroar: 226-266 (57.3 - 67.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
+1 252 SpA Jirachi Shadow Ball vs. 212 HP / 0 SpD Eviolite Doublade: 256-302 (82 - 96.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
+1 252 SpA Jirachi Aura Sphere vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Skarmory: 147-173 (44 - 51.7%) -- 10.9% chance to 2HKO
252 SpA Jirachi Psychic vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Unaware Quagsire: 174-205 (44.1 - 52%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
+1 252 SpA Jirachi Psychic vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Gastrodon: 216-255 (50.7 - 59.8%) -- 85.2% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
+1 252 SpA Jirachi Thunderbolt vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Jellicent: 236-278 (58.4 - 68.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
+1 252 SpA Jirachi Psychic vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Tentacruel: 314-372 (86.2 - 102.1%) -- 12.5% chance to OHKO
+1 252 SpA Jirachi Psychic vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Palossand: 234-276 (62.5 - 73.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
(these offensie calcs are Jirachi WITHOUT Ebelt)

Defensive Calcs

252 Atk Life Orb Terrakion Earthquake vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Jirachi: 283-335 (82.9 - 98.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 Atk Life Orb Tough Claws Lycanroc-Dusk Crunch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Jirachi: 276-325 (80.9 - 95.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 Atk Krookodile Earthquake vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Jirachi: 306-360 (89.7 - 105.5%) -- 37.5% chance to OHKO
252+ Atk Life Orb Bisharp Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Jirachi: 320-377 (93.8 - 110.5%) -- 62.5% chance to OHKO
0 Atk Incineroar Flare Blitz vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Jirachi: 290-344 (85 - 100.8%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO
0 Atk Incineroar Knock Off vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Jirachi: 158-188 (46.3 - 55.1%) -- 63.3% chance to 2HKO
252 SpA Keldeo-Resolute Hydro Pump vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Jirachi: 178-211 (52.1 - 61.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Even if it can survive its checks, not every Jirachi wants to take a shit ton of damage so here are some partners that can help Jirachi greatly.


I feel like this is pretty self-explanatory once you set up webs cm rachi will now be faster than all of its checks.


Same thing here para spam helps Jirachi greatly by making it faster than all of its checks. While also being an amazing defensive answer to most of Jirachis checks.

(galar)
Weezing galar comes in on all of Jirachi's checks and while also providing chip to the defensive answers with tspikes and wisp

Is it stupid to vote ban on Jirachi over one set? Yes, it is, but due to its amazing versatility, you can adjust its moveset to kill whatever your team is weak to while also with the right setup and partners this Jirachi set can be an auto-win in games. Thanks for taking your time for reading this, I hope this convinces you that cm rachi is the most broken set rn!

If you want some bad teams that got me some wins in the suspect here you go

Importables

Pincurchin @ Terrain Extender
Ability: Electric Surge
Shiny: Yes
EVs: 252 HP / 4 Def / 252 SpA
Quiet Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Spikes
- Recover
- Scald
- Rising Voltage

Raichu-Alola @ Life Orb
Ability: Surge Surfer
EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Nasty Plot
- Psychic
- Rising Voltage
- Grass Knot

Necrozma @ Electric Seed
Ability: Prism Armor
EVs: 4 Def / 252 SpA / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Calm Mind
- Earth Power
- Stored Power
- Moonlight

Lycanroc-Dusk @ Focus Sash
Ability: Tough Claws
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Jolly Nature
- Stealth Rock
- Endeavor
- Accelerock
- Close Combat

Noivern @ Heavy-Duty Boots
Ability: Infiltrator
EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
- Draco Meteor
- Flamethrower
- Roost
- U-turn

Cobalion @ Rocky Helmet
Ability: Justified
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Jolly Nature
- Stealth Rock
- Megahorn
- Close Combat
- Iron Head


Golurk @ Life Orb
Ability: No Guard
EVs: 66 HP / 252 Atk / 190 Spe
Adamant Nature
- Substitute
- Poltergeist
- Earthquake
- Heat Crash

Araquanid @ Heavy-Duty Boots
Ability: Water Bubble
EVs: 88 HP / 252 SpA / 168 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Toxic
- Sticky Web
- Ice Beam
- Surf

Lycanroc-Dusk @ Life Orb
Ability: Tough Claws
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Jolly Nature
- Close Combat
- Stone Edge
- Crunch
- Accelerock

Noivern @ Heavy-Duty Boots
Ability: Infiltrator
EVs: 4 HP / 252 SpA / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
- Draco Meteor
- Flamethrower
- U-turn
- Roost

Jirachi @ Expert Belt
Ability: Serene Grace
EVs: 32 Atk / 252 SpA / 224 Spe
Hasty Nature
- Stealth Rock
- Iron Head
- Energy Ball
- Thunder

Cobalion @ Air Balloon
Ability: Justified
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Jolly Nature
- Volt Switch
- Iron Head
- Close Combat
- Megahorn

 

[okispokis]

Outside Help
The tier shift that occurred at the start of this month saw a notable exodus of mons from UU to the tiers below, whether they be recently released mons that were overhyped initially or old staples who simply got crowded out. Of course, a mon's usage isn't necessarily equivalent to its viability in the tier- upon closer examination, many of the mons who fell to RU still have a potential place in the UU meta, so to counterbalance that post I made last month about which mons were primed to drop off, I thought I'd highlight these niche picks, even if only for fun. Not all of them are good enough to be proper UU, I admit, but I'll get more into that on a case-by-case basis. So, if you've been interested in an unconventional pick to fill that hole in your team, here's a quick run down of many (not necessarily all) of the options available.

The Top Prospects
These are the guys who are still decently regarded in the viability rankings.

I admit, I have not given Escavalier the cred that it deserves. With max HP and heavy SpD investment, Escavalier is easily one of the best defensive answers to the terror that is Specs Kyurem, especially with Blissey having flown the coop. With full SpD investment, Rem can only hope to 4HKO the knightly bug, while even uninvested Iron Head is a guaranteed 2HKO in return. Of course, Rem is not the only thing it answers; the only special attackers who can reliable handle it at all are Specs Toxtricity and those with Fire coverage, and SpecsTricity needs to lock into Overdrive, leaving it vulnerable to any Ground type teammates (say, the excellent Krookodile). While it can definitely shrug off many attacks with ease, it does still appreciate Wish support due to its reliance on Leftovers.

Fast but frail, Heliolisk has just enough power to be an okay attacker normally, really made notable by its great Speed tier. It's STAB combo can be backed up by either Surf or Grass Knot to handle Ground types, while Dry Skin allows it to switch into quite a few Water types. Where UU Lisk really has potential, however, is on two fringe but potentially devastating playstyles: Sun and Electric Terrain. Solar Power allows Lisk to become supercharged under Sun, providing a backup for Charizard, while Electric Terrain grants it 182 BP Rising Voltage (why is this move?); both archetypes can be inconsistent (more on that later), but Lisk is definitely a great secondary choice for both styles.

Mowtom, at first, likely seems inferior to its watery cousin, mostly due to a U-turn weakness, but Mowtom does have one thing going for it: a quad Electric resist. This means that Mowtom, unlike Washtom, can easily sponge Thunderbolts aimed at the likes of Skarmory or Slowking; it's probably best suited for teams that pack both of those guys, as King can, in turn, take Fire attacks while Skarm barely blinks at U-turn; with this core, Mowtom proves a great partner to two of the best defensive mons in the tier. Mowtom is by no means bad, it's just that it can struggle to shine in the same tier as Washtom.

Outside Picks
A niche pick is just a friend you haven't made yet. These guys may not be the most well-regarded outsiders, but it'd still be foolish to underestimate them.

If you want Sticky Web, there's really only two places to go for it in UU. The first would be Araquanid, who makes up for its lack of Speed with great bulk. It's power may look unimpressive, but thanks to Water Bubble its Liquidation can actually OHKO Krookodile after Intimidate. That potential defense drop can also be of great benefit to its physical teammates. However, the spider's biggest flaw is actually 4MSS of all things; it wants Toxic to spread passive damage, Substitute to protect itself from Toxic, Magic Coat to deny opposing hazard setters and Leech Life since it otherwise has no recovery (since it prefers Boots); that might be fine for a suicide lead, but UU has no lack of good hazard removal, so you might want your setter to have a little more sustain.

Barraskewda's fall was one of the biggest surprises the early SwSh meta had for me; while it may lack boosting, you'd think something with this blazing Speed and solid Attack would at least find a regular spot in OU or UU. However, while it may currently be RU, Barraskewda definitely has its place on certain UU teams. This thing is the epitome of a glass cannon, able to easily cleave through frail or weakened threats, although it often comes up short against bulkier threats. For that reason, UU Barra is best kept in the wings until late-game in most scenarios, much like Sharpedo in that it primarily excels at running clean up once its teammates have already done their thing. However, Barra is no longer a momentum drain mid-battle like it originally was thanks to the newer addition of Flip Turn, allowing it to pivot out and thus provide some use for its team before the endgame. However, it is mostly going to wanna stick to Flip Turn during the midgame since this is not a mon that wants to take hits.

Dragalge is another mon that has benefitted from Flip Turn, especially in conjunction with low Speed. Its Adaptability STAB can tear through any switch that doesn't resist it, while Focus Blast can clean up common Steel types quite nicely. Compared to RU, UU Drag focuses its use more around Toxic Spikes, lowkey being the best setter besides Tentacruel (especially since Hatterene doesn't want to eat that adapted Poison). Drag's main issue is its dislike of special walls, with the fearsome Tyranitar automatically shutting down any set without FB. Dragalge packs both power and decent bulk, but it can struggle to make use of both at the same time.

Druddigon pretty much does the same thing it did last month: utilize Rough Skin + Rocky Helmet to chip down the various physical threats of the tier, provide utility with Rocks/Glare, phase with Dragon Tail and further increase trolling thanks to Endure. It can also go on the attack with Gunk Shot and EQ, although I find that the inferior choice to its (admittedly gimmicky but) unique utility. Its problem is mainly that its pigeon-holed as a suicide lead, meaning any team with Drud should have options to shut down any removal attempts.

I think I went about Klefki all wrong in my initial impressions of it; simply put, there's no reason for this thing to go Prankster screens when Grimmsnarl already has that role more than filled. However, Grimmsnarl doesn't have access to Prankster hazards, and this is where Key finds its UU niche. Backed up with status in TWave/Toxic and Fairy STAB in Play Rough or Dazzling Gleam to hit those pesky Dark types, and you have an impressively compact support mon. Of course, Key also has some degree of flexibility with its sets; it's free to mix and match those aforementioned options alongside moves like Foul Play to counteract the plethora of physical attackers, Magnet Rise to play mindgames against the resident Ground types, Defog if you don't really need it to Spike and possibly even Switcheroo + Lagging Tail in case of emergency (what can I say? It's dumb but I find it hilarious). Really its only con is its average stats. Honestly, I think Key might be the most slept on mon in this category.

Mantine is another mon I personally feel is a bit slept on right now. While the Metronome discovery and the banishment of rain mean that its offensive days are likely over, HDB still allow Mantine to be a fairly decent defensive mon. With no shortage of Water in UU, Mantine provides a valuable niche due to its superior Special bulk and Defog utility, making up for its average physical bulk thanks to Scald burns. It may need RNG for that, but from experience I must admit that this thing can be surprisingly hard to wear down. Electric types aren't too common in UU, but those that do exist can certainly put the hurt on the gentle Manta; Specs Rem's Freeze-Dry is also capable of OHKOing it. However, Mantine's biggest fear is being crippled by Toxic and/or Knock Off, as it needs longevity to fulfill its role.

While Rhyperior is currently ranked B+ alongside the "Top Prospects", this is the one mon I actually feel is a bit overrated. Sure, Solid Rock makes is pretty resilient on paper, but its weaknesses lurk around every corner (many of the tier's top mons can handle it with minimal difficulty, and it hates common defensive mons like Skarm and Geezing) and its ability doesn't quite compensate for its lackluster special bulk. That's not to say the rhino is bad, however; this thing's physical bulk allows it to reliably Rock against many physical attackers. STAB on EdgeQuake is also nothing to laugh off, especially since it can threaten certain hazard removers like Tentacruel if they try to remove first. Still, Rhy is probably only going to Rock once or twice per match, so you should either provide Wish support or make sure your team doesn't necessarily need Rocks to function.

And here we get to the other potential Webber. Ribombee holds one advantage over the spider in its blistering Speed, meaning that its basically guaranteed to get Webs off against any team lacking Hat, which is can actually get around thanks to Skill Swap. The more common option for utility is Stun Spore, which can help with speed control even after its down, and its STABs can hit decently hard against certain key threats. Of course, its frail AF nature means that lead Ribombee is mostly reserved for Hyper Offense. There is a Specs set utilizing Psychic (which is really just for Geezing and Roserade), although I feel that the lead set is better in the current climate.

Need a rocker? Do you really hate Washtom and Toxtricity? If so, Seismotoad is the mon for you. Thanks to the longevity of Water Absorb, alongside good utility in Rocks, Toxic and Knock Off, Toad proves itself to be a decent defensive mon in UU. It's normally decent bulk can be fortified thanks to burns with Scald, and STAB EQ is always a good thing to have. All of these options come together to offer a surprising amount of role compression that many teams are more than happy to take. It would probably appreciate reliable recovery, hence not being UU proper, but c'est la vie.

The Forgotten Options
These mons are fringe, but a role for them does exist if you look hard enough.

Arcanine faces a lot of competition for its role- as a Teleport pivot, it's outclassed by Slowking, as a Fire type it lacks the offensive might of Darm and Chandy and even at intimidation it suffers from the presence of Krookodile and Incineroar. So why use Arcanine at all? Well, while this guy may be outclassed at all of these things individually, its unique combo of attributes does provide it some unique benefits. Unlike the other Intimidaters, Arc veers special with its sole attacking move in Flamethrower, which gives it a much better matchup against Skarm. Unlike Incin, Arc actually packs recovery thanks to Morning Sun, meaning that it doesn't have to worry as much about being worn down. And while King is largely the better Teleport user, Arc, thanks to its typing (which notably gives it a U-turn resistance) and Intimidate, has better matchups against the likes of Heracross, Doublade, Choiced Darmanitan and even has a (slightly) easier time dealing with physical Jirachi since it resists U-turn. Anything that doesn't care about Flamethrower gets crippled by Toxic. Arc in UU is a very specific mon, but one that admirably performs that one specific role.

Thanks to the overall speed increase of the meta, Gardevoir has had a rough time adjusting and its Specs set is pretty much dead in the water. However, there may yet be hope for Scarf Gard due to one move: Healing Wish. Gardevoir can utilize HW alongside a solid attacking core of Psychic/Moonblast/Mystical Fire to perform as a decent Scarfer. The only mon that outclasses it as HW support, as well as generally being her most fierce competition, is Jirachi, although Rachi doesn't necessarily want to sacrifice itself given all the other things it can do; that said, Gard will probably not go anywhere so long as Rachi lingers on the horizon. As such, I feel that should Rachi be banned, Scarfed Gardevoir could easily see a resurgence in popularity and viability due to this unique support niche.

Gastrodon has always been a bit of a tiering anomaly, able to hold a niche in various higher tiers despite mostly being a lower-tier lifer. That said, I do believe that, despite Gastro having reliable recovery, Toad currently outclasses Gastro due to greater utility between Rocks and Knock Off, along with generally superior physical bulk (which is kind of important given the list of threats). However, if you already have those bases covered, then Gastro is a more than adequate alternative to Toad, dishing out damage through STABs and Toxic. Not much to say about this, to be honest.

Unlike with Mantine, I feel that Milotic now struggles to perform defensively in UU. Sure, it can amass solid physical bulk with Marvel Scale and proper investment, but I've found that this approach makes Milo surprisingly squishy on the special side, crumpling to pretty much every serious special attacker. Sure, it's naturally bulkier than Slowking, but it lacks the Teleport + Regen combo that makes King great. Really, the only niche defensive Milo brings is the room for Haze; as such, I feel that offensive Milo with Competitive is the better option at the moment. STAB and Ice Beam are pretty much the only attacks this thing needs, and still has room to spread Toxic, Haze opposing sweepers, or (as previously mentioned on the thread) even run DDance to increase its mediocre Speed. Recover can be of use even on offensive variants since extra longevity is always nice.

While I've been doing these guys one at a time, there's not really much sense talking about UU Charizard without Ninetales. Sun as a whole definitely took a huge hit with the loss of Venusaur and Torkoal; the loss of Torkoal especially hurts since Sun is now forced to devote an additional slot to hazard/hazard removal. If you can get that support, however, then these two prove a solid attacking core, especially with Tales' new tool in Scorching Sands. Charizard's nuclear power with Solar- er, Power is still just as fiery as before, especially with Specs. Just make sure you keep those Rocks off the field as much as possible.

To talk about Pincurchin is really to talk about Electric Terrain and, in the case of UU, Al-raichu. Pin can be a surprisingly decent support mon, packing hazards in Spikes, status in Scald or boosted Discharge, reliable recovery and potentially genuine offensive pressure via Rising Voltage. However, let's be honest: you're only using Pin in UU if you really want to use Alraichu, whose unmatched Speed plus the stupidity that is Rising Voltage under Terrain makes it perfectly primed as a revenge killer or late-game cleaner. Still, getting the most out of it requires Pin to stay alive, which it can struggle with a bit in the higher power level of UU.

Porygon2 should honestly be a great defensive pivot in UU, especially with buffed Teleport, recovery and great bulk when backed by Eviolite; compared to Slowking, it only has one weakness. Unfortunately, that one weakness is a fairly common attacking type, possbily the most common, and is STAB on four of the best offensive mons in the tier; the three Swords can boost in order to bypass Eviolite, while Mienshao can directly cripple it with Knock Off. Porygon2 can be a decent pivot, but if using it you need to pack separate answers to Fighting types, a burden that King doesn't struggle with.

Umbreon has some decent tools for a cleric thanks to Wish and Heal Bell, alongside Toxic to wrack up damage. Also, its great bulk plus Inner Focus allows it some resilience against the menace that is Jirachi, not to mention denting physical Rachi with Foul Play. However, its typing and nonexistent offensive power mean its largely outclassed by Sylveon, who makes up for lackluster physical Defense thanks to being resistant to Fighting as opposed to weak to it like Umbreon is. Ultimately, its passivity is its greatest downfall, as it needs FP against a strong physical attacker to do any attacking damage, although that isn't the best option for dealing with Terrakion or Cobalion.

That's all the ones I was able to come up with. Of course, if there are other RU mons you think deserve more credit in UU, feel free to discuss them.

 

[TSR]

So I'm a bit late to the party as usual since it took until tonight to get the surge of motivation I needed to drop what's probably another sizeable essay on what I think about our tier at the moment. Gonna try to give this post a bit more structure than normal since I feel like a lot of my past thoughts have been pretty cluttered and disorganized and I wanna try and change that.

First of all I thought I should talk about Jirachi since y'know this is a suspect for it. Pretty sure I've made it abundantly clear over discord servers mostly that I find Jirachi to be an incredibly stupid dynamic in our tier for a couple pretty glaring reasons. Yeah it's easy to say rachi is extremely difficult to prep for while staying in but I feel like analyzing that statement a bit deeper than some of the general pro ban posts have been like so far.

So first I wanna go over my ladder run because 1. I wanna attempt to justify my godawful ladder run without just admitting that I might be bad at pokemon and 2. it leads into the points I'm trying to make both about Jirachi's impact and other problems I perceive with the metagame as a whole. Rather than breezing through ladder with a braindead team like the infamous brazilian webs or mindless screens HO, I challenged myself to ladder with balance pretty much the whole way through. I ended up sticking with a team that I made a while back that I find to be mostly effective in the current meta but with a couple outstanding issues that makes a couple matchups really tough. Let's be real, trying to cover everything in this meta in a predominately defensive manner is next to impossible but I figured this team was structured in a way that I could try to proactively cover things through a lot of residual damage and abusing Hatterene and Keldeo's fantastic offensive capabilities:

click mons for importable

A little janky but I built it in the first place with a good matchup against common screens and webs in mind thanks to Scarf Trick + Defog Rotom along with Hatterene being able to lock down the hazards game a lot, so I tended to have pretty linear wins when I faced those styles. Also managed to get me out of low ladder pretty easily thanks to Whirlwind Skarmory and the funky Tar set being good at being able to play a bit safely vs random junk you see below 1500 that you might not be fully prepped for. When I got higher up I saw a lot more Hatterenes and opposing Cobalion, so I started using Iron Head on Skarm and messed around with Tar's moveset a lot, trying out stuff like Fire Blast, Stone Edge, Low Kick / Focus Punch, and Superpower. I started 20-2 which maybe made me get a bit complacent or something but some of the cracks started to show in this team afterwards. Against more competent opponents Keldeo is pretty pressured to make good predictions and make progress vs some of the faster paced voltturns. Needless to say my next 6 games straight were lost to Keldeo missing very key Hydro Pumps which put me quite far back every single game and thus I lost the hope of qualifying in the 30-35 game range. Most of my losses afterwards were to basically the same cluster of mons that I couldn't really play against with these specific subset of 6 mons, because my team wasn't the generic effective voltturn offense that mostly dominates the current meta. I basically lost the rest of the games to competent play from:
* Calm Mind Hatterenes that manage to be slower than my own, since Draining Kiss and Mystical Fire screw the faster one 99% of the time
* Mixed Jirachi variants with Thunder + Energy Ball
* Swords Dance Terrakions
* Kyurem when it ch01s (freezes) my Tyranitar (cwl)

So yea all the brokens now that I look at it LOL. I had built this before the mixed Jiras with Energy Ball really took off so I figured I'd just keep rolling with it and truck through the rest of the reqs. The other issues I had are for a different day since they are a mildly different topic that I have Not Good things to say about concerning the metagame as a whole. But since I need to focus on Rachi here, this brings me to my first real point after babbling on until now: It is impossible to properly prepare for every Jirachi set while also keeping other top metagame threats in mind. One of the arguments I've seen that definitely holds the least water by far is that Rachi can't run all of its sets at the same time, and that figuring out the set is not too hard and can be played around afterward. This gameplan is much, much harder in practice, as guessing a Jirachi set wrong can mean a heavily weakened or even instantly KOed mon thanks to its utterly absurd coverage that can pretty much 2hko the entire tier depending on what it wants to hit. There have been plenty of threats like this in past metagames; similar stuff that comes to mind are like Infernape and Togekiss from last generation. Jirachi however, comes with the best typing by far in the competitive landscape in Steel, no extraneous hazards weakness, and amazing bulk with 100 across the board. It is incredibly forgiving in a large majority of scenarios to play with and more often than not skews the guessing game way more in the Rachi user's favor because so much can be lost on the receiving end if you think it's one set and it ends up being another. Even the more balanced and reasonable sets like Choice Scarf variants can have genuinely risk free opportunities to make some kind of substantial move thanks to Trick being insanely hard to play around this gen and can consistently make an impact on a game to game basis thanks to that and Healing Wish. I find Calm Mind variants to be the most egregious offender at the moment, as what I think to be the best variant (CM / Psychic / Aura Sphere / Shadow Ball) has completely unresisted coverage leaving it with a small pool of honestly not very viable Pokemon to deal with it with sheer special bulk and super effective coverage, leaving it with feasible win / progress paths against pretty much any team. Also near immune to residual damage as potential Sand and Poison mean nothing to it while Burn and Stealth Rock damage barely damages it over time while it's almost always making progress of some kind against teams without Escavalier. Even with the mildly weak base power of those 3 moves it's pretty tough to play around offensively thanks to the unresisted coverage and it can almost certainly get a couple boosts under its belt when it really wants to. Not far behind this are the mixed sets that often pack Expert Belt, some form of resist berry, or Leftovers for longevity. The aforementioned Thunder + Energy Ball sets have been pretty popular as of late but it can realistically pack stuff like Psychic, Iron Head, Icy Wind, Fire Punch, Aura Sphere, Meteor Beam, U-turn, and Shadow Ball on these sets as well. Thanks to its general resistance to many forms of residual damage, it's excruciatingly hard to play around these sets without having multiple faster Pokemon that can outspeed AND heavily damage it, all of which can be also invalidated if it decided to throw on Substitute to help ease predictions. Classic case of a 'mon being able to freely choose its checks and counters with extremely low drawback and very limited counterplay when it gets the matchup it wants. I'd like to go back to Bad feeling's post from this weekend as the list he accumulated is actually a pretty decent list of mons capable of helping you deal with rachi in some capacity.

Counters:

Hard Checks:

(restalk)

(restalk roar bar CM Aurasphere)

(bar fire punch)

(bar CM shadowball)

(bar fire/fighting move)

Checks:
-Physical jirachi:

-Mixed support Jirachi:

-Special Jirachi:

(perish song or cm/leech seed variants)

(av only)

(bar energy ball)

(its sucks)

(bar shadow ball)

Subtoxic:

(bar drain/fire punch)

(bar drain punch)

RK:

(scarf)

I won't nitpick the list entirely since it's mostly true but the main issue I see in this list is that basically every mon outside of umbreon is pretty unreliable, and even then Umbreon is forced into running Inner Focus to not risk getting flinched down, which outside of this one interaction is vastly inferior to Synchronize as an ability for it. Many of the more "reliable" answers always seem to have an asterisk next to them in one way or another. This exacerbates leads the separate issue here though; most of these more safe Jirachi sponges all range from "having taken a hit in viability due to the recent tier shift" such as picks like Incineroar, Doublade, Reuniclus, and Escavalier, to "pretty damn garbage (in my opinion)" with things like Magneton, Scarf Tar, Steelix, and Arcanine being brought up. Going by the smogon definition of a counter (being able to safely switch into any option a mon can go for and beat it securely), Steelix isn't close to being a counter to CM Aura Sphere:
+1 252 SpA Jirachi Aura Sphere vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Steelix: 204-242 (57.6 - 68.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
0 Atk Steelix Earthquake vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Jirachi: 188-224 (55.1 - 65.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Even Umbreon needs to be very healthy and have Foul Play rolls go in its favor (especially hard vs lefties CM Rachis) to be able to stave off Jirachi going for +2 Aura Sphere twice:
0- Atk Umbreon Foul Play vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Jirachi: 162-192 (47.5 - 56.3%) -- 24.6% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
+2 252 SpA Jirachi Aura Sphere vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Umbreon: 174-206 (44.1 - 52.2%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
So yeah, even Jirachi's "best" interim measures can get punished pretty hard if you play around whatever set it is / could be poorly and even the more secure ways of playing around the more dangerous lure Jirachi sets in a vacuum just aren't very effective against the metagame at large and more often than not you have to go out of your way to fit them on a team.

Now that I feel like I've explained that Jirachi doesn't have very safe or viable counterplay somewhat competently, I'd like to address a different aspect of rachi that also definitely pushes it over the edge: the luck factor. Anyone that's known me for a while probably knows I think paralysis is a truly garbage mechanic and that I really dislike dynamics that Pokemon like Jirachi encourage, especially in tiers like DPP OU / Ubers and now this one. While this typically is a thing in any given match that can drastically affect the outcome with stuff like untimely crits or burns or freezes, Jirachi without a doubt definitely exacerbates the issue with many of its sets, any of them including Iron Head and especially the ones that include potential paralysis via Thunder or Body Slam. While these moves have their own decently high hax rate at 30% each, Jirachi doubling it with Serene Grace goes a really long way to make it a lot more conducive to any given gameplan. The talk about incorrect probability and whatnot earlier was a decent point but again feeds into a larger picture: Jirachi has the ability to push a fairly reliable gameplan that involves pushing the odds unfairly in its user's favor. The main point I really wanna make here is that paralysis is still bullshit since it got nerfed wrong and Jirachi being able to double any given turn's chance of its opponent not moving is pretty uncompetitive in general. Given the fact that OU time after time tends to keep the most damage- and status-resilient pokemon that can deal with stuff like this for extended periods of a game, lower tiers often get shafted when it comes to options with dealing with these kinda mons. We simply don't have options like Ferrothorn, Toxapex and the like that can truly answer to Jirachi spreading paralysis and just hoping the odds are in its favor (they are) consistently. The Iron Head + Para sets also by extension naturally stifle offensive counterplay to Jirachi thanks to potential implications of para and or flinching meaning that a key offensive mon could be useless against Jirachi's teammates if one turn goes your way. Needless to say I find this to be a big, big problem on top of the sheer unpredictability of this mon as a whole limiting your defensive countermeasures to it as well. While of course the chances that Jirachi takes on a game-to-game basis with these sets are definitely not infallible, it does significantly raise the odds to the point that winning via Iron Head flinch and Thunder / Body Slam paras are genuinely feasible to incorporate into a general gameplan. If you are reading this and haven't tried out sets like Substitute / Iron Head / Thunder / Energy Ball or WishTect + Iron Head & Body Slam I would highly suggest trying them out and seeing how hilariously quickly a game can spiral downhill when a Noivern can't outspeed a Keldeo or Obstagoon.

So that's about all I really have to say on rachi. Despite all I said I think it honestly plays out a bit better in practice because it obviously can't do everything at once and it is ultimately up to the user and the opponent to play the game properly. Still the things it can do are just a bit too overbearing to prep for on top of all the other powerful threats we have running around. Makes any game against it a dangerous guessing game where not too much is gained if you guess right and way too much can be lost if you guess wrong. On top of that it has a ton of good resistances and general damage resilience up there with the best of our current defensive mons like Skarm and Rotom-W, letting it actually get on the field and wreak havoc. On top of it all, rachi can whip out some uncompetitive nonsense and heavily neuter offensive counterplay to it too. I think it's a lot more tame compared to last gen when it could slice through literally every team style with its nonsense z moves, but I don't think the tier is ready to handle this thing in a healthy manner yet. Not much else I can say; personally hope Hatterene and Terrakion are on a potential suspect radar next. Serene Grace (the ability) is the devil, get it out.

 

[kollo3250]

As a previous exploiter of Jirachi, I understand how it can be percieved as a threat due to its ability serene grace coupled with its STAB moves; iron head & zen headbutt. This however, does not make it worthy of the ban list, as there are a multitude of counters that either outspeed it & kill or resist its vital moves, that are very common throughout UU. Such includes, Skarmory, Incineroar, Slowking, Mimikyu... I could go on, this does not include those that simply outspeed Jirachi. Of course, there is the case that it is scarfed which is a bonus, as a team can play around this very easily, once discovered, to the detriment of the Jirachi. This is not to say that it is a weak pokemon, not at all, credit where it is due, it is a game changer in the UU tier, however it should not be banned as it can easily be worked around, by a team that does not ignore its existence. It is important to consider the RNG factors of Jirachi, & this is probably the main driving factor for its ban however, statistically, the expected value of such is that 6 times out of 10, there will be a flinch, for an iron head and 4 times out of 10, for zen headbutt, given that it outspeeds the other pokemon. However, it is on the opposing team to either:
1. Provide a pokemon which can outspeed it
2. Play around it if scarfed
3. Switch in a defensive wall, that tanks
Failure to do these effectively, should not constitute a ban on Jirachi side & also since Jirachi is a top tier sweeper, then it is vital that those building teams not prepare beforehand based on the most common sweepers. Jirachi is nowhere near impossible to prepare for, just like a mimikyu can easily be countered when considered. I apologise if this is lacking example and depth, as I am a bit busy at this stage and time & wanted to contribute but I am sure, (I hope at least), my point is understood.

 

[Moutemoute]

As a previous exploiter of Jirachi, I understand how it can be percieved as a threat due to its ability serene grace coupled with its STAB moves; iron head & zen headbutt. This however, does not make it worthy of the ban list, as there are a multitude of counters that either outspeed it & kill or resist its vital moves, that are very common throughout UU. Such includes, Skarmory, Incineroar, Slowking, Mimikyu... I could go on, this does not include those that simply outspeed Jirachi. Of course, there is the case that it is scarfed which is a bonus, as a team can play around this very easily, once discovered, to the detriment of the Jirachi. This is not to say that it is a weak pokemon, not at all, credit where it is due, it is a game changer in the UU tier, however it should not be banned as it can easily be worked around, by a team that does not ignore its existence. It is important to consider the RNG factors of Jirachi, & this is probably the main driving factor for its ban however, statistically, the expected value of such is that 6 times out of 10, there will be a flinch, for an iron head and 4 times out of 10, for zen headbutt, given that it outspeeds the other pokemon. However, it is on the opposing team to either:
1. Provide a pokemon which can outspeed it
2. Play around it if scarfed
3. Switch in a defensive wall, that tanks
Failure to do these effectively, should not constitute a ban on Jirachi side & also since Jirachi is a top tier sweeper, then it is vital that those building teams not prepare beforehand based on the most common sweepers. Jirachi is nowhere near impossible to prepare for, just like a mimikyu can easily be countered when considered. I apologise if this is lacking example and depth, as I am a bit busy at this stage and time & wanted to contribute but I am sure, (I hope at least), my point is understood.

Actually it's not only because of its Scarf set that Jirachi is seen as an issue. While it's true that most of the Pokemon you talked about are indeed able to handle quite well Choice Scarf Jirachi (bar Mimikyu which actually can't come on it at all) you need to take into account that you can't assume the Jirachi of your opponent is Choice Scarf and send your Skarmory or Slowking without scouting it. Mixed Jirachi with Expert Belt are pretty common and can punish really hard Skarmory with Thunder and Slowking with either Thunder or Energy Ball. On the other hand, Incineroar is definitively not as much splashsable than before which means it needs way more support than before. It also struggles vs CM Jirachi which tends to run Aura Sphere. Incineroar also doesn't appreciate Sub+Toxic variants of Jirachi.

Overall your post would be 100% valid if Jirachi was running Choice Scarf most of the time but it's not actually the case and that's why you'll need to scout it (sometimes multiple times) to be sure to be able to check it with X Pokemon or Y Pokemon. So yeah I think it's better to nuance it your post with this one. Also Zen Headbutt is "kinda niche" on Choice Scarf Jirachi and is used when your team is weak to things like Keldeo. Most of the time, Iron Head + U-turn + Healing Wish + a filler like Trick is better.

 

[kollo3250]

Actually it's not only because of its Scarf set that Jirachi is seen as an issue. While it's true that most of the Pokemon you talked about are indeed able to handle quite well Choice Scarf Jirachi (bar Mimikyu which actually can't come on it at all) you need to take into account that you can't assume the Jirachi of your opponent is Choice Scarf and send your Skarmory or Slowking without scouting it. Mixed Jirachi with Expert Belt are pretty common and can punish really hard Skarmory with Thunder and Slowking with either Thunder or Energy Ball. On the other hand, Incineroar is definitively not as much splashsable than before which means it needs way more support than before. It also struggles vs CM Jirachi which tends to run Aura Sphere. Incineroar also doesn't appreciate Sub+Toxic variants of Jirachi.

Overall your post would be 100% valid if Jirachi was running Choice Scarf most of the time but it's not actually the case and that's why you'll need to scout it (sometimes multiple times) to be sure to be able to check it with X Pokemon or Y Pokemon. So yeah I think it's better to nuance it your post with this one. Also Zen Headbutt is "kinda niche" on Choice Scarf Jirachi and is used when your team is weak to things like Keldeo. Most of the time, Iron Head + U-turn + Healing Wish + a filler like Trick is better.

You are right and I agree with you, it isn't easy to counter but it is definitely possible, not running choice scarf can allow it to be outspeed and earthquake or another super effective move, which is why I do think it shouldn't be banned. But, it is important to note that once it is outsped, its niche becomes irrelevant & that is what I think is its saving grace in preventing it from being banned and allows Terrakion Earthquake to 2HKO without flinching. I also realise the huge power Jirachi maintains on the enemy team, and the pressure it places on possible switch ins and in all honesty I understand how fearful one would be to switch in, but once there have been a number of common known counters, then in my opinion it shouldn't be banned.

Edit: Sorry I was incorrect in what I said about Mimikyu, it is not an effective counter for Jirachi.

 

[BigFatMantis]

You are right and I agree with you, it isn't easy to counter but it is definitely possible, not running choice scarf can allow it to be outspeed and earthquake or another super effective move, which is why I do think it shouldn't be banned. But, it is important to note that once it is outsped, its niche becomes irrelevant & that is what I think is its saving grace in preventing it from being banned and allows Terrakion Earthquake to 2HKO without flinching. I also realise the huge power Jirachi maintains on the enemy team, and the pressure it places on possible switch ins and in all honesty I understand how fearful one would be to switch in, but once there have been a number of common known counters, then in my opinion it shouldn't be banned.

Edit: Sorry I was incorrect in what I said about Mimikyu, it is not an effective counter for Jirachi.

There are no dark or ground types in UU that outspeed Jirachi without scarf. And the only fire type that outspeeds is Talonflame (not a very good switch in). Nothing in UU can really blow it away at all.

Further, with a combination of Body Slam and Thunder abuse (60% prz), it can paralyze any non-limber non-electric type and make anything slower, then proceed with Iron Head shenanigans.

Of course, I agree that this isn't enough to ban it. But there are so many other reasons above on why it should be banned in addition to this. If the UU metagame was different than what it is now, and had better options, then I would argue for it to stay. But it just doesn't right now. Maybe next time with new DLC drop.

 

[esche]

I don't know lads, removing this tier's premiere Steel type seems like a bad idea right now, especially when most teams double up on Steels even with Jirachi. I understand that "broken checks broken" is not a healthy mentality for tiering and there's a good chance that removing Jirachi is the first step of creating a "healthier" metagame (so that other possibly broken stuff could get the boot too) but then again I'm not sure if I would even call Jirachi that broken. Yeah, there's a wide array of sets Jirachi can choose from and that makes it fairly unpredictable, but isn't that also part of the beauty of using Jirachi? There's a whole bunch of cool sets and strategies you can pull off with Jirachi and not every set will automatically do well versus every team you're facing. It's still a teambuilding (and playing) effort to enable that particular set, after all. Contrarily, it's not like every Jirachi you run into will be the one your team is less adequately prepared for, and not every bad Jirachi match-up will be a definitive loss. I get that you can't prepare for every conceivable Jirachi set under the sun, but there's hierarchies for frequency and viability of Jirachi sets just like there is for every other 'mon, and if your team happens to be 6-0ed by the CM set then you might just have to go back to the drawing board with your squad to make sure you can actually revenge kill a boosted Jirachi.

What's more, posts like those from Bad feeling show that there is indeed plenty of counterplay available to Jirachi if you look for it. The main argument I hear from people against that list is that many of the 'mons listed aren't considered viable by standard of the rankings. Frankly, this argument doesn't sit quite right with me. As long as they're not complete liabilities, resorting to 'mons outside of the higher end of the viability rankings is not a sign of an unhealthy metagame - it's part of the process of metagame development. After all, it isn't expected of anyone to be making their entire team consist of nothing but dedicated Jirachi answers. It might be a good idea, however, to venture out of the upper A ranks from time to time if you feel like a particular Jirachi set is getting too much work done versus your team. Pivots like Rotom-Mow, Escavalier and Incineroar might have passed their glorious days but are nowhere near unviable. Choosing to incorporate one of these 'mons on your team doesn't make your team bad - it will change its dynamic. There is no true counter to all sets but you also get to pick your evil when it comes to addressing Jirachi from a teambuilding perspective. Playing-wise, you always gotta be careful around Jirachi because it isn't easily evident from team structures what set you're facing but that's also what playing ability is supposed mitigate, right? Assess the possibilities, determine dangers to your team, and map out a game-plan versus them - ideally, you've gone over this when building your team.

Utilizing Jirachi isn't the brain-dead task that it's made out to be either: Choice Scarf Iron Head spam should be easily punishable as long as your team isn't totally underprepared, and mixed sets are stuck throwing out medium-strong attacks that are fairly predictable. Admittedly, there's often little drawback for the Jirachi user because of the increased secondary effect chance of moves like Thunder but from what I've seen it actually often comes as a relief for sweepers like Terrakion and Lycanroc not having to deal with the possible annoyance of Choice Scarf later. CM can choose its counters to some extent and is certainly the most threatening set of the bunch but takes a turn to get going and even then fails to pick up some important KOs, while SubTox suffers greatly from Noivern's resurgence and relies on flinches a bit too much. Wish support is probably the most obnoxious to face because of its ability to punish offense with Body Slam while ensuring the longevity of other members but its not exactly a stand-alone threat to well-adapted offensive and defensive cores.

Now, is Jirachi centralizing? Yes, there's no denying that. As has been pointed out, if your team lacks Jirachi there's a good chance you're missing out on something. This "necessity" for Jirachi on teams comes from its ability to perform many roles in one slot and, again, I'm not convinced that's a bad thing for the tier. The ramifications of axing Jirachi cannot be predicted with certainty but I for one am definitely worried about losing a Rock, Fairy and Ice resist that isn't too easily overwhelmed and that can make some solid progress itself. I get it, the Serene Grace + Iron Head shenanigans can be frustrating (especially late game) and if it's decided that Jirachi's ability to cheese its way throught supposed checks from time to time is the straw that broke the camel's back then so be it. Personally, I think Iron Head flinching is a lot less effective than people make it out to be. Incorporating strategies against and playing towards reducing the chances of getting haxed in the first place (within reason mind you) is also a mark of a good builder/player.

tldr; jirachis benefits to the tier should be considered more, its frustration factor related to hax is exaggerated, and im a bit doubtful whether countermeasures have been sufficiently explored/id hate to see this thing go bc of lazy prep

Peace

 

[Lil Infant Tylenol]

So originally in my post about my team, I added an edit about how I thought Rachi should stay. However, after watching WC games, open games, and other tournament games, I have changed my mind. Rachi should be banned mainly because of its stupid versatility and ability to win games because of hax

Ban Point 1: Versatility:
IMO, the fact still stands that one Rachi set on its own is not tremendous or overwhelming. However, when u lose your because it has energy ball and ur team gets destroyed by or . This is just one example and a Rachi can basically lure in and kill or weaken anything it wants because of its 100 sp atk and atk and stupid good movepool. This also is not mentioning its defensive sets that really allows it to be on any team. Yes, Jirachi doesnt usually sweep teams without big time luck from iron head, but something doesnt need to sweep to be broken. IMO, this is the closest thing we have seen to something like a shadow tag as you can customize the mon to kill really anything you want.

Ban Point 2: Fits on any team
A lot of the times, you can put yourself at a disadvantage by not running Rachi. Unless you are running a hard core stall team or an HO team that has other breakers (Insert my HO team), I would say you are at a disadvantage not running . Rachi is probably the best scarfer, best Sp def rock setter for BO teams, and the best mon to lure in, well anything that isnt Sp def Steelix. And the beauty of Rachi is that Sp def rachi outclasses as a spdef steel rock setter unless you are desperate for an electric resist/immunity. Also before anyone says umbreon is a counter, doesnt like U turns from max atk Jirachi.

Counter Point Unban glue holds the tier

I saw some saying it is able to keep dangerous mons in check like Terrak/Lycan, , but it really cant and other mons can keep those in check. Jirachi could never dream of switching into Terrak/Lycan and both those can beat 1v1 with minimal chip (unless rachi is scarfed ofc). then rachi also has trouble switching into specs ep from kyurem. In my eyes, all rachi did was give the illusion that it is necessary because it such a better steel type option than basically anything because it so much better steel type option than others.

Now I know I am not saying that is very new, but I just wanted to give a prespective from someone that changed their mind. I think everything that rachi does puts it over the edge. I believe I viewed rachi as not broken as most of the time I used it as a pivot and it probably isnt broken as a pivot. However, when you consider you can never not worry about rachi because of all the things it does.

 

[Ernesto]

I wanted to get reqs but I suck ass (was 26-4 yesterday with Moot's SubTox Rachi team but hit 50 games 39-11 so lol), so I'll just mention that I went into this test thinking that Jirachi, even doing what it does since it was allowed in XY UU, was actually healthy for the tier overall because of the amount of things it keeps in check.
However, after playing for this suspect I realized outside of its dumb Scarf Iron Head set, its speed tier is was ends up breaking it. There aren't many things that outspeed and OHKO, and even stuff that should generally win like Keld or Noivern can get totally screwed over by Thunder para (42% chance, ie. higher than Scald burning or Focus Blast missing). I'm honestly surprised that wasn't more common in previous gens, like I remember SubToxic being deadly in Gen VI but it ran Fire Punch, I'd never seen Thunder. While that move isn't amazing on its own outside of hitting Skarm since Electric-types are already good switchins, the fact that it can turn games around basically playing the odds puts a big strain, not so much on teambuilding, but in actual battles.

I'm still scared that without it the tier will become more unstable, but I've come to the realization that it's prolly time for the wishing star to leave UU again. So long and thanks for all the fish.

 

[kumiko]

Jirachi has been banned from SS UU by 82.05%

Tier shifts tomorrow! Enjoy spamming Kyurem while you can.

 

[lydian]

 

[Moutemoute]

Shifts are here guys !

Hatterene moved from UU to OU
Kyurem moved from UU to OU
Necrozma moved from UU to OU
Skarmory moved from UU to OU
Toxtricity moved from UU to OU
Tyranitar moved from UU to OU
Ditto moved from NU to OU

Chansey moved from OU to UUBL
Venusaur moved from OU to UUBL
Kingdra moved from OU to UU
Marowak-Alola moved from OU to UU
Slowbro moved from OU to UU
Zarude moved from OU to UU
Torkoal moved from OU to RU

The tier is fucked up now.. we lost so many Pokemon and we gained a 2.0 Slowking.

edit : Juno you're the worst

 

[Jade]

usage stats are up etc etc


Aegislash moved from UUBL to OU
Gengar moved from UUBL to OU
Primarina moved from UUBL to OU
Chansey moved from OU to UUBL
Venusaur moved from OU to UUBL
(only matters if we want to suspect them)

Hatterene moved from UU to OU
Kyurem moved from UU to OU
Necrozma moved from UU to OU
Skarmory moved from UU to OU
Toxtricity moved from UU to OU
Tyranitar moved from UU to OU
Ditto moved from NU to OU
Kingdra moved from OU to UU
Marowak-Alola moved from OU to UU
Slowbro moved from OU to UU
Zarude moved from OU to UU
Torkoal moved from OU to RU

edit:

 

[Gerard]

So... How many quickbans now that Skarmory left?

 

[PlusC]

One of my teams literally just went OU lol.

Losing Skarm is pretty bad. Slowbro is nice and will fit in well, it's a slightly more defensive Slowking basically.

We have a lot of very powerful physical attackers that now need some new checks. I don't really see how we justify a lot of them staying UU. Terrakion, Mienshao and Lycanroc being the worst offenders. The former is checked well by Golurk and Lycanroc you kind just play around, but it will be a very strange tier for a bit.