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Official NBA '17-18 Season Thread
- Thread starter trikx_insane
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Can't see the Pelicans stealing more than a game, especially with Curry set to return. Disappointed LeBron didn't drop out first round. Will be sad again if he doesn't drop this round.
(3) Philadelphia Sixers versus (2) Boston Celtics
Hard to predict because there's a lot of defensive match-up combinations either coach can try. Simmons might be guarded by anybody from Smart to Horford. Horford and Embid may not even see each other, or Baynes may prove to be worth his salt one-on-one. Redick may be defending friggin' point guards.
Both teams have similar rosters as far as size, athleticism, and height. The difference comes in though with skillset and talent. I'm not going to spend too much time on coaching strategy with this one.
Philadelphia undoubtedly has the better talent, but Boston has the better coaching. I think conventionally, you have to lean Philadelphia because Milwaukee couldn't have been that much of a good team this year. Yeah, I predicted them to win, but that's because I sold Boston shorter than I sold Milwaukee; they still let that team take them to seven games. I honestly don't think Philadelphia would have let that happen.
As good as Boston is defensively talented, they still have trouble scoring, and Philadelphia's defense is top-notch with Embid on the floor. Smart is the x-factor on the wings because while he can be a pest to Philadephia's key offensive cog in Redick, if Smart or Tatum (shooting way below his season average in the playoffs) are not making their shots, Simmons or Covington are going to play free safety all over the floor and muck up Boston's offense enough to play to the quick pace of Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Redick has to score and not be a defensive liability on the other end. Bledsoe got thrashed in round 1, and Philadelphia lacks a legit point guard defender. Redick is your best option and if it isn't him, he still has to not be defensively challenged by the athleticism of Boston's wings.
Philadelphia needs to figure out quick how to use Embid if regular season numbers indicate anything about this match-up. Theis played him defensively the best, so him being injured is a big help. All you have left are Baynes, Horford, and Ojeleye. It's truly hard to figure out how Embid will play against this line-up but I'm going to assume he'll be okay over the course of a series. Horford, the most versatile center, might possibly be overwhelmed. Baynes is slow, and Ojeleye is undersized.
All signs point to this series becoming a chess match. I don't know what's the first move, next move, or last move; but I can think about the most powerful moves. Whoever figures out the best line-up offensively without giving up anything or the best line up defensively without having offensive liabilities... will win the series. My bet is that it will be Philadelphia for a couple of reasons: 1) Embid is the best two-way player on either team 2) Boston has shown to offensively struggle against teams who switch and have like-sized guys as displayed against Milwaukee in the first round 3) Philadephia has a 6'10" passer which makes an offense that much harder to break through. The intangibles are in Philadelphia's favor but only marginally.
Philadelphia wins if: Redick is not a defensive liability and isn't struggling to score against Boston's athletic wing, Embid can't be stopped, Horford is neutralized, Simmons can dance around Horford or Smart. Talent beat coaching.
Boston wins if: Redick can't hide defensively, Smart is causing a ruckus with Philadelphia's shooters in general, Horford is either making an impact on Simmons or Embid. The Boston guards and forwards still manage to create offense against Philadelphia's taller wings.
Philadelphia in seven.
Hard to predict because there's a lot of defensive match-up combinations either coach can try. Simmons might be guarded by anybody from Smart to Horford. Horford and Embid may not even see each other, or Baynes may prove to be worth his salt one-on-one. Redick may be defending friggin' point guards.
Both teams have similar rosters as far as size, athleticism, and height. The difference comes in though with skillset and talent. I'm not going to spend too much time on coaching strategy with this one.
Philadelphia undoubtedly has the better talent, but Boston has the better coaching. I think conventionally, you have to lean Philadelphia because Milwaukee couldn't have been that much of a good team this year. Yeah, I predicted them to win, but that's because I sold Boston shorter than I sold Milwaukee; they still let that team take them to seven games. I honestly don't think Philadelphia would have let that happen.
As good as Boston is defensively talented, they still have trouble scoring, and Philadelphia's defense is top-notch with Embid on the floor. Smart is the x-factor on the wings because while he can be a pest to Philadephia's key offensive cog in Redick, if Smart or Tatum (shooting way below his season average in the playoffs) are not making their shots, Simmons or Covington are going to play free safety all over the floor and muck up Boston's offense enough to play to the quick pace of Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Redick has to score and not be a defensive liability on the other end. Bledsoe got thrashed in round 1, and Philadelphia lacks a legit point guard defender. Redick is your best option and if it isn't him, he still has to not be defensively challenged by the athleticism of Boston's wings.
Philadelphia needs to figure out quick how to use Embid if regular season numbers indicate anything about this match-up. Theis played him defensively the best, so him being injured is a big help. All you have left are Baynes, Horford, and Ojeleye. It's truly hard to figure out how Embid will play against this line-up but I'm going to assume he'll be okay over the course of a series. Horford, the most versatile center, might possibly be overwhelmed. Baynes is slow, and Ojeleye is undersized.
All signs point to this series becoming a chess match. I don't know what's the first move, next move, or last move; but I can think about the most powerful moves. Whoever figures out the best line-up offensively without giving up anything or the best line up defensively without having offensive liabilities... will win the series. My bet is that it will be Philadelphia for a couple of reasons: 1) Embid is the best two-way player on either team 2) Boston has shown to offensively struggle against teams who switch and have like-sized guys as displayed against Milwaukee in the first round 3) Philadephia has a 6'10" passer which makes an offense that much harder to break through. The intangibles are in Philadelphia's favor but only marginally.
Philadelphia wins if: Redick is not a defensive liability and isn't struggling to score against Boston's athletic wing, Embid can't be stopped, Horford is neutralized, Simmons can dance around Horford or Smart. Talent beat coaching.
Boston wins if: Redick can't hide defensively, Smart is causing a ruckus with Philadelphia's shooters in general, Horford is either making an impact on Simmons or Embid. The Boston guards and forwards still manage to create offense against Philadelphia's taller wings.
Philadelphia in seven.
Man the Celtics are ruthless without their All-Stars still...
Sixers can still do damage in this series but they are still slightly overrated by the people.
(1) Toronto Raptors versus (4) Cleveland Cavaliers III: The Bench Broskis Attack
There is no reliable way to predict this series, but I'm going to attempt to anyway.
By every statistical metric, Toronto this regular season, as well as the post-season, have shown themselves to be the superior team to Cleveland. The stats bear that out, and Cleveland has deteriorated way below their regular season numbers in the first round. Cleveland had the lowest point differential winning a series in over 20 years. Out of all the teams remaining in the playoffs, Cleveland has the worst offensive and defensive numbers. And this is with LeBron dominating the series at an individual level.
And yet, they could still easily win this series because LeBron defies all math. Always has. Essentially, we are seeing the best version of Toronto versus the worst version of Cleveland since LeBron's return. Where do you stand?
Just like Philadelphia/Boston series, this one is even harder to think about because this Cleveland roster has not been seen enough in the regular season, and the unpredictability of LeBron's performance in the face of math is beyond me. Also, the potential line-ups Toronto could throw out is another huge variable. Both of these teams have match-up issues with each other, and momentum will easily swing from game to game.
I think the first variable I should bring up is Valancianas. Him staying on the floor for Toronto would do wonders for their chances of winning. Last year, he was a huge problem with Kevin Love at center. The way he played in the first round is certainly promising because Washington did try to go small, and he played in key fourth-quarter stretches. Can he replicate that in this series against LeBron and Love? If he can, +1 for Toronto because Cleveland has no rim protection to speak of.
The next variable is Toronto's bench. Van Vleet is important to watch going forward. If George Hill struggles, LeBron has no other player on that team who can handle the ball and/or create their own shot. Toronto has DeRozan, Lowry, Van Vleet, Delon Wright, and arguably Norman Powell. They have so many options to go to and their two star guards can rest, play off-the-ball, and take over at their own comfort. If the bench can give quality minutes, quality offense and defense, you would then be asking LeBron to play 45 minutes a game initiating every play and somehow being more efficient than young guys with rest over a seven game series. Man, I know LeBron is one of the greatest players to ever play the game, but that would simply be inhuman.
The final important variable in all of this is... how will Casey decide to handle LeBron. LeBron feasted on Toronto's defense throughout the regular season, but OG was still his best bet.
OG: 1.09 points per possession
Siakam: 1.23
Anyone else: 1.54
He did fantastic against Wall and sometimes Beal in the first round, but LeBron is a different beast. What is the most effective course of action? One-on-one defense, hug shooters, and let LeBron tire himself out? Do you pose a line-up of ballhandlers and try to let LeBron work at every turn? Do you trap and dare his struggling shooters to beat you? All of these strategies sound okay to try, and I imagine he'll do a mix of coverages.
So, that's the gist of it. We can statistically see how this series should go, but choosing against LeBron even at this point in his career with this team is still considered foolish to many. I think the major difference between this struggling Cleveland team and year's past is that LeBron's rest is less, the team's stats are worse, and the supporting cast has yet to contribute in any meaningful way (no one has scored more than 20 other than LeBron and we're friggin seven games in).
Toronto has improved three consecutive seasons and Cleveland has deteriorated in almost three consecutive seasons. At some point, the perceived difference between these teams has to switch sides, and LeBron has to snap. I've always been wary of predicting when that would happen, but if somebody was going to choose when, this is the best time in history we could.
Toronto wins if: Valancianus can stay on the floor, Van Vleet makes a major impact, DeRozan and Lowry finally trust their teammates and beat the traps that have haunted them for years, Toronto's depth proves too much.
Cleveland wins if: LeBron defies all stats once again, Kevin Love makes Valancianus ineffective, somebody on that supporting has stepped up (most notably, George Hill or some other guard).
Toronto in six.
There is no reliable way to predict this series, but I'm going to attempt to anyway.
By every statistical metric, Toronto this regular season, as well as the post-season, have shown themselves to be the superior team to Cleveland. The stats bear that out, and Cleveland has deteriorated way below their regular season numbers in the first round. Cleveland had the lowest point differential winning a series in over 20 years. Out of all the teams remaining in the playoffs, Cleveland has the worst offensive and defensive numbers. And this is with LeBron dominating the series at an individual level.
And yet, they could still easily win this series because LeBron defies all math. Always has. Essentially, we are seeing the best version of Toronto versus the worst version of Cleveland since LeBron's return. Where do you stand?
Just like Philadelphia/Boston series, this one is even harder to think about because this Cleveland roster has not been seen enough in the regular season, and the unpredictability of LeBron's performance in the face of math is beyond me. Also, the potential line-ups Toronto could throw out is another huge variable. Both of these teams have match-up issues with each other, and momentum will easily swing from game to game.
I think the first variable I should bring up is Valancianas. Him staying on the floor for Toronto would do wonders for their chances of winning. Last year, he was a huge problem with Kevin Love at center. The way he played in the first round is certainly promising because Washington did try to go small, and he played in key fourth-quarter stretches. Can he replicate that in this series against LeBron and Love? If he can, +1 for Toronto because Cleveland has no rim protection to speak of.
The next variable is Toronto's bench. Van Vleet is important to watch going forward. If George Hill struggles, LeBron has no other player on that team who can handle the ball and/or create their own shot. Toronto has DeRozan, Lowry, Van Vleet, Delon Wright, and arguably Norman Powell. They have so many options to go to and their two star guards can rest, play off-the-ball, and take over at their own comfort. If the bench can give quality minutes, quality offense and defense, you would then be asking LeBron to play 45 minutes a game initiating every play and somehow being more efficient than young guys with rest over a seven game series. Man, I know LeBron is one of the greatest players to ever play the game, but that would simply be inhuman.
The final important variable in all of this is... how will Casey decide to handle LeBron. LeBron feasted on Toronto's defense throughout the regular season, but OG was still his best bet.
OG: 1.09 points per possession
Siakam: 1.23
Anyone else: 1.54
He did fantastic against Wall and sometimes Beal in the first round, but LeBron is a different beast. What is the most effective course of action? One-on-one defense, hug shooters, and let LeBron tire himself out? Do you pose a line-up of ballhandlers and try to let LeBron work at every turn? Do you trap and dare his struggling shooters to beat you? All of these strategies sound okay to try, and I imagine he'll do a mix of coverages.
So, that's the gist of it. We can statistically see how this series should go, but choosing against LeBron even at this point in his career with this team is still considered foolish to many. I think the major difference between this struggling Cleveland team and year's past is that LeBron's rest is less, the team's stats are worse, and the supporting cast has yet to contribute in any meaningful way (no one has scored more than 20 other than LeBron and we're friggin seven games in).
Toronto has improved three consecutive seasons and Cleveland has deteriorated in almost three consecutive seasons. At some point, the perceived difference between these teams has to switch sides, and LeBron has to snap. I've always been wary of predicting when that would happen, but if somebody was going to choose when, this is the best time in history we could.
Toronto wins if: Valancianus can stay on the floor, Van Vleet makes a major impact, DeRozan and Lowry finally trust their teammates and beat the traps that have haunted them for years, Toronto's depth proves too much.
Cleveland wins if: LeBron defies all stats once again, Kevin Love makes Valancianus ineffective, somebody on that supporting has stepped up (most notably, George Hill or some other guard).
Toronto in six.
I think you have to take into account Tristan Thompson's sudden return to competence in game 7. If he can continue to provide that spark of energy and give Cleveland 10 and 10 with solid defense, this is a whole different series. Indiana's bigs are no joke, so if he could do that against Turner/Sabonis/Young then there's a chance he can do it against Toronto's lesser front court.
There's a chance but I'm not sure if Thompson is better than Valancianus. Love was who beat him last year and this year. Thompson is like a cheap version of him tbh
Plus I'm not sure if cleveland going big is good against this team.
In addition to what I said above, Toronto really needs to attack Kyle Korver or Jr Smith.
If I'm Cleveland, I do want to attack Lowry but also test Valancianus effectiveness in guarding LeBron even if he did a fantastic job helping on Wall last series.
https://www.raptorshq.com/2018/5/1/...veland-cavaliers-semifinals-strategies-game-1 here's some decent stuff on what to expect with line-ups.
Plus I'm not sure if cleveland going big is good against this team.
In addition to what I said above, Toronto really needs to attack Kyle Korver or Jr Smith.
If I'm Cleveland, I do want to attack Lowry but also test Valancianus effectiveness in guarding LeBron even if he did a fantastic job helping on Wall last series.
https://www.raptorshq.com/2018/5/1/...veland-cavaliers-semifinals-strategies-game-1 here's some decent stuff on what to expect with line-ups.
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I'm really trying to type in English because I'm so mad with Dwane Casey's lack of intelligence.
I just don't believe in such stupidity that the Raptors committed in that last possession. What would any smart coach do? It would use the most secure and guaranteed move, DeRozan in ISO shooting from mid-range. BUT NO, they did a stupid drive to the paint WHICH WAS FULL OF PLAYERS, gives up, drive to the bottom line, gives a pass to VANVLEET (decent player, but not a go-to-guy) who, in an act of despair, fires from downtown WHEN THEY JUST NEEDED A REGULAR BASKET. JUST TWO POINTS. JUST. TWO. POINTS.
Toronto will always be a sorry ass team and LeBron will always be their daddy. NEVER, I said NEVER Toronto gonna win in Quicken Loans Arena. Cavs in 6 heading to East Finals (and maybe NBA Finals).
I just don't believe in such stupidity that the Raptors committed in that last possession. What would any smart coach do? It would use the most secure and guaranteed move, DeRozan in ISO shooting from mid-range. BUT NO, they did a stupid drive to the paint WHICH WAS FULL OF PLAYERS, gives up, drive to the bottom line, gives a pass to VANVLEET (decent player, but not a go-to-guy) who, in an act of despair, fires from downtown WHEN THEY JUST NEEDED A REGULAR BASKET. JUST TWO POINTS. JUST. TWO. POINTS.
Toronto will always be a sorry ass team and LeBron will always be their daddy. NEVER, I said NEVER Toronto gonna win in Quicken Loans Arena. Cavs in 6 heading to East Finals (and maybe NBA Finals).
LeBron.
Toronto played pretty well most of the game. Just the final few minutes. I blame it on coaching like the person above me mentioned; and Lowry looked legitimately spooked to have LeBron guarding him.
Cavaliers will probably start Thompson or at least give him more minutes going forward since Valancianus has proven to win the match-up with Love this year; hopefully, Casey should adjust to such a change by allowing Valancianus to guard the paint more and stifle Cleveland's offense that way and having one of the guards just attack Thompson's feet. Them going big really shouldn't bother Toronto the way it does, but for whatever reason, his playoff performance the past two games are uncharacteristic of the season.
Cavaliers will probably start Thompson or at least give him more minutes going forward since Valancianus has proven to win the match-up with Love this year; hopefully, Casey should adjust to such a change by allowing Valancianus to guard the paint more and stifle Cleveland's offense that way and having one of the guards just attack Thompson's feet. Them going big really shouldn't bother Toronto the way it does, but for whatever reason, his playoff performance the past two games are uncharacteristic of the season.
I have no idea why Thompson played the way he did throughout the regular season, but last night was the 2nd straight game where I'd call him easily the best non-LeBron on the floor for Cleveland When he is truly engaged you can't even abuse him off switches, as he does a great job staying in front of quicker guards. He's no Gobert but the dude can defend.
Once again the trio of Love/Hood/Clarkson was abysmal, combining to shoot 6 for 25, but similarly to game 7 Love made his only good plays happen in the 4th when he had those two huge buckets. I still have no idea what is up with him, I wonder if the mental health issues from earlier in the year are still causing him problems. He may need some time off from basketball or something, I'm not sure. It'll be interesting to see what he does if LeBron leaves.
Overall though Toronto lost the game more than Cleveland won it. There's some very promising signs for Cavs fans to take away from the game, but overall there's no way in hell Toronto should have lost there. How many shots at the basket did they miss in the 4th? Like 7 or 8 (not even exaggerating)?
Once again the trio of Love/Hood/Clarkson was abysmal, combining to shoot 6 for 25, but similarly to game 7 Love made his only good plays happen in the 4th when he had those two huge buckets. I still have no idea what is up with him, I wonder if the mental health issues from earlier in the year are still causing him problems. He may need some time off from basketball or something, I'm not sure. It'll be interesting to see what he does if LeBron leaves.
Overall though Toronto lost the game more than Cleveland won it. There's some very promising signs for Cavs fans to take away from the game, but overall there's no way in hell Toronto should have lost there. How many shots at the basket did they miss in the 4th? Like 7 or 8 (not even exaggerating)?
Looks like a quick series? Are we talking about the same game? Every Warrior except Klay played excellent, Dray had the best game of the whole damn season, Steph got the home crowd going absolutely bananas, and they still only won by 5. I fully expect NO to come out and win game 3 handily, and we'll see what happens in game 4.
The Toronto players are seriously just in their own heads. They're playing not to lose at the end of the fourth and not to win. LeBron really instills fear in them...this really is the best chance for Toronto to win but if they keeping getting in their own heads and playing not to lose in the fourth, this series goes to Cleveland.
Kyle Lowry is the most mentally weak player in the nba.
He should try and be more like Joe Ingles.
Hmm. Game 3 in the Utah/Houston series will be huge if only because:
1) GSW/NO is looking to be a series no more than 5 games (I know NO could win two on their floor or whatever, but purely based on what I've seen, NO threw a powerful offensive punch in game 2 and still lost; at the very least, GSW look more dominant over NO than Houston over Utah). With all this being said, if Houston is taken to six or even seven games, they'll come in with a rest disadvantage against GSW. Knowing the age of their rosters, that's a big advantage to have (or not give up in Houston's case).
2) I've always felt iffy about D'Antoni's ability to adjust his philosophy and game plan. Utah made impressive adjustments in game 2; more high-low passing, attack the lateral defensive ability of Houston's guards and forwards, and hug the shooters. They're basically imitating San Antonio somewhat; if D'Antoni can't come anywhere close to figuring out what to do here, it'll look poorly going forward in my eyes.
1) GSW/NO is looking to be a series no more than 5 games (I know NO could win two on their floor or whatever, but purely based on what I've seen, NO threw a powerful offensive punch in game 2 and still lost; at the very least, GSW look more dominant over NO than Houston over Utah). With all this being said, if Houston is taken to six or even seven games, they'll come in with a rest disadvantage against GSW. Knowing the age of their rosters, that's a big advantage to have (or not give up in Houston's case).
2) I've always felt iffy about D'Antoni's ability to adjust his philosophy and game plan. Utah made impressive adjustments in game 2; more high-low passing, attack the lateral defensive ability of Houston's guards and forwards, and hug the shooters. They're basically imitating San Antonio somewhat; if D'Antoni can't come anywhere close to figuring out what to do here, it'll look poorly going forward in my eyes.
This x100. Utah has put themselves in a good position. They made some really good adjustments defensively and offensively last game.
Edit: Oh yeah. LeBron James.
Cuncel the Philidelphia 76ers.
Pretty easy for you to say that in retrospect, even though the Cavs clearly were outplayed by the Pacers and were -40 for the damn series coming into round 2 against a team that's supposed to be better. Additionally this would be a way different series right now if any of the 6 or 7 tip-in chances the Raptors had at the end of game 1 had actually resulted in points, in which case I think they would've carried that momentum to a game 2 win. Cavs got lucky as hell in game 1, then stomped on Toronto's throats in game 2.
Anyway that series is clearly over at this point, and LeBron's post stepback fadeaway jumpshot thing is ridiculous when he's hot, that's the most unguardable shot I've seen since Dirk's prime. If he can continue making that and Love turns around permanently this team could find themselves in the finals yet again
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