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Open Setup Classic Mafia - Game Thread

phoopes said:
AirC I'm most confident on because the post where they were like "I will shoot confirmed town" is TOO evil/no way that was coached or whatever, so I ultimately think it's frustrated/inexperienced town. As for the others...

As for the others, I essentially agree with hal's analysis in 1983.

This makes the most sense to me too.

Since I'm confident on AirC being town, and am most convinced on joey WW and realiti third maf, that leaves Tommy and bluedoom as town. I'm more confident on bluedoom though as they said they'd post when they're back from work and now it's been over 12 hours. I don't like metagaming that much but I feel like if they were maf there'd be a coached post by now. This leaves town or WW for bluedoom and I agree with hal that joey has been more actively exhibiting the behavior of a WW (not that bluedoom has had much chance but we work with what we have).

So here's essentially where I am.

Confirmed town:
Me
hal
Evie

Town to maf confidence levels (most likely town being at top):
AirC (99% sure town)
Tommy (pretty confident town)
bluedoom (biggest unknown but I lean town)
joey (lean wolf)
realiti (lean maf)

Confirmed mafia:
fairy
Celever

Our best chance to hit werewolf is joey. Based off hal's post (1949) that I agree with wholeheartedly, it's best to hit wolf. Thus...

##Vote: joey
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Bluedoom is very experienced btw so wouldn’t be coached but just posting )though I see he got on just after this)

That being said this adds up and I don’t disagree but glad to know where this tans thanks for sum up

I’m happy to vote Joey today then
 
realiti said:
i think tommy is never scum and has less WW equity than anybody else in the PoE. i think airc has equity for both but more likely WW. however i feel like nobody has any scum equity and im really confused who the 3rd is
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Reading through airC's posts I didn't feel like he had a presence in the game. So I don't have much to say about airC. I guess lack of presence can be said for most people(no seriously check most pages, the top posters are hal and Tommy, and then maybe a fairy). For me personally I think sheeping hal is correct mechanically speaking but:

No one has still explained why they think that joey is the likely ww fsr.
 
bluedoom said:
Reading through airC's posts I didn't feel like he had a presence in the game. So I don't have much to say about airC. I guess lack of presence can be said for most people(no seriously check most pages, the top posters are hal and Tommy, and then maybe a fairy). For me personally I think sheeping hal is correct mechanically speaking but:

No one has still explained why they think that joey is the likely ww fsr.
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i just think everybody else has much less WW equity aside from AirC
 
I'm 90% confident at the moment that WW is Cary/bluedoom and mafia is AirC. Reading back realiti more I'm pretty confident they are town and I haven't seen a reason to doubt Tommy.

So that said I'm keeping my vote on bluedoom, I don't really know what else to say that hasn't been laid out but I'm hoping somebody has a eureka moment and solves the game atp I suppose
 
AirC
apricity said:
All right guys so here's the full plan.

AirC joey Tommy phoopes Evie realiti bluedoom

Right now we're at 6-3-1

The reason we aren't voting the confirmed mafias today and tomorrow is that if we do so, town gets shot twice, and we go into 2-1-1 MYLO in which town is a kingmake and doesn't really have a shot at winning

So that means that either today or tomorrow, we have to take a shot at the werewolf. There are five people the werewolf could be located in: joey, airc, tommy, realiti, bluedoom

It's better to try to get the werewolf today because this group of 5 also contains the 3rd scum. If we hit the 3rd scum today, we get to try again to hit the werewolf tomorrow. So there's a 40% chance of hitting a baddie.

If we hit town, for various reasons werewolf is forced to side with town tomorrow and in the nightkill, and so we go to 2-1-1 anyway.

Now, if we get the werewolf today, it turns into 5-3, then 4-2, then 3-1, which is MYLO and it's either a town or scum victory. The scum apparently know who the werewolf is and are refusing to tell us, and so they're trying to avoid the 3-1 MYLO. Which is a little silly, which is why we're saying that if we get to the 2-1-1 kingmake situation, we're going to try our best to side with werewolf.

If we get the 3rd scum today, then tomorrow after 2 town deaths is 4-2-1 we have another crack at werewolf within the POE. Voting mafia doesn't work because after two town deaths we again return to 2-1-1 which is a town loss.

Thanks and good luck to us!
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AirC confirm you understand this?
 
joey said:
I'm 90% confident at the moment that WW is Cary/bluedoom and mafia is AirC. Reading back realiti more I'm pretty confident they are town and I haven't seen a reason to doubt Tommy.

So that said I'm keeping my vote on bluedoom, I don't really know what else to say that hasn't been laid out but I'm hoping somebody has a eureka moment and solves the game atp I suppose
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ugh joey is really towny too today though
 
joey said:
I'm 90% confident at the moment that WW is Cary/bluedoom and mafia is AirC. Reading back realiti more I'm pretty confident they are town and I haven't seen a reason to doubt Tommy.

So that said I'm keeping my vote on bluedoom, I don't really know what else to say that hasn't been laid out but I'm hoping somebody has a eureka moment and solves the game atp I suppose
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I solved the game I know everyone’s alignment !
 
realiti said:
oh you mean joey

tommy what do u think about an airc vote
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I have no real thoughts on airc the most interesting thing is he didn’t realise apricity was not cleared but I genuinely think he could be mafia and not have followed that

People always assume players are active in mafia chat but if someone is lagging behind thread they can do the same in mafia chat too

Because I’m sure a fairy and clever spammed the shit out of scum chat today so the third could be behind
 
Tommy said:
I have no real thoughts on airc the most interesting thing is he didn’t realise apricity was not cleared but I genuinely think he could be mafia and not have followed that

People always assume players are active in mafia chat but if someone is lagging behind thread they can do the same in mafia chat too

Because I’m sure a fairy and clever spammed the shit out of scum chat today so the third could be behind
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I have taken ages replying to a fairy today in scumchat bc I was at work and only have disc on my phone

And unless my phone vibrates I kinda forget it exists unless I’m looking at it lmao
 
But I’m just not confident in a vote which scares me because it needs to be correct

If I assume mafia is lying and werewolf was optimally townsiding then I believe Joey is the ww who shot Poe twice

If mafia are telling the truth then like

I think Joey would’ve shot Hal but anyone could’ve shot a fairy reasonably

I’m wifoming over who mafia would rolecop do mech wise Joey is more likely than airc I think but it’s not like confident
 
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