Entering the last week of regular season it's time to look at every team's route to playoffs. This year is rather strange, though. There is a pretty clear gap between the "top 3" and "bottom 3" teams. With 4 teams making playoffs, the "top 3" have pretty much secured their spot, with the "bottom 3" fighting for spot #4. To get a clear view for this, here is every team's score and differential right now:
Mickey Mankeys: 6 points, 4 differential
Aurafarming Jinwoos: 5 points, 6 differential
The Luckitungs: 5 points, 6 differential
Charmeleon Chokeslam: 3 points, -2 differential
Supersonic Shellders: 3 point, -6 differential
W i l d b u n g i s W e e d l e s: 2 points, -8 differential
As you can see there is a two point divide between the #3 and #4 team, which is a big deal. Furthermore, the three matchups this week all happen to be a top 3 team battling a bottom 3 team. This means differential and how the other teams are doing matters a lot this final week. Now let's get to each team's route to get to playoffs.
Mickey Mankeys
The Mankeys are the only team that has truly locked playoffs. Since you can only get two points per week, it is impossible for any team in the bottom 3 to catch up.
Aurafarming Jinwoos
The Jinwoos are as close to making playoffs as you can be without actually being locked in. It is impossible for the Weedles to pass them in points, meaning they need to be passed by both the Charmeleons and the Shellders. It's easier to describe the exact scenario where the Jinwoos
miss playoffs. First of all, the Charmeleons need to beat the Luckitungs, and then the Jinwoos and the Mankeys need to go a combined
1-15 between their two series for the Shellders to overtake them in 14 points of differential. If they go a combined
2-14 they will tie the Shellders in differential and undergo a tiebreaker.
The Luckitungs
The Luckitungs are also extremely likely to make playoffs. They are in the same boat as the Jinwoos in that the Weedles cannot pass them, and they need to go a combined
1-15 with the Mankeys to get passed by the Shellders. They are at a slight disadvantage compared to the Jinwoos, as doing badly enough where the Shellders pass them automatically means the Charmeleons will pass them too. Nevertheless, the chance of either of these combined series ending in a total of 1-15 is extremely unlikely, so the Jinwoos and Luckitungs should both feel secure with their spot in the playoffs.
Charmeleon Chokeslam
The Charmeleons are the only team in the bottom 3 that are fully in control of their own destiny. That is, they can make it based on their team's performance alone, without worrying about how other teams do. If they go 7-1, they are in, no questions asked. If they go 6-2, they are in as long as the Shellders don't go 8-0, but even then, it's a tiebreaker. If they go 5-3, then they are in as long as the Shellders don't go 7-1. If they tie 4-4, they need the Shellders to either tie or lose AND they need the Weedles not to go 7-1, so a little scarier there. If they lose their week, they need the Shellders to also lose, and the Weedles to either lose or tie.
Supersonic Shellders
The Shellders need a little more luck than the Charmeleons due to having a lower differential. If the Charmeleons win their week, the Shellders need to win by 2 more games to secure a tiebreaker, or win by 3 more games to secure a guaranteed spot. The Shellders still have a lifeline if the Charmeleons go 7-1 or 8-0, as this puts the Luckitungs at a low enough differential to pass them. If the Shellders go 8-0, they are guaranteed to pass at least one of the Charmeleons/Luckitungs and make it into playoffs. The only exception is if Luckitungs/Charmeleons go 6-2, in which case there is a three-way tiebreaker. If the Shellders go 7-1, they can snag at least a tiebreaker spot provided the series doesn't end at 6-2 for Luckitungs and Charmeleons. The Shellders have a lot more flexibility if the Charmeleons lose or tie their set. If the Charmeleons lose/tie and Shellders win, they are in. If the Charmeleons lose and the Shellders tie, they are in, provided the Weedles do not go 6-2 or better (5-3 gets tiebreaker).
W i l d b u n g i s W e e d l e s
The Weedles have the hardest route to make it to the end. They MUST win their set (except one very specific way they get in through a tie) and even then, their fate is at the hands of the Shellders and Charmeleons. The Weedle's only routes to make it are as follows:
- They win AND Charmeleons lose AND Shellders lose
- They win 6-2 AND Charmeleons lose AND Shellders tie (5-3 win results in tiebreaker)
- They win 8-0 AND Charmeleons tie AND Shellders don't win (7-1 win results in tiebreaker)
- They tie AND Charmeleons lose 0-8 AND Shellders lose 6-2 (1-7 from charms or 3-5 from shellders result in a tiebreaker)
Even though these are four different ways of making it to the end, they all rely not only on their performance, but also on those of the Charmeleons and Shellders. This makes them the least likely team to make the playoffs, but it is still possible!
