Ryuki: Pre-Reveal
We're going to try to brute force Ryuki with strong Tech.
Mega Tyranitar can stats through just about any of Ryuki's Pokemon, except Gouging ft. Kommo-o.
Nidoking has Toxic Spikes, which Ryuki cannot clear. He also has SE stab on Bolt ft. Tox, Bolt. ft Scream, and Gouging ft. Arch. For the rest, it has pretty brutal coverage. Even if Bolt ft. Tox is around to absorb Toxic Spikes, that just gives Earth Power a very good target: (9 + 3 + 2 + 3 + 7 - 6) * 2 = 36.
Swampert can handle all forms of Gouging, if Gouging rolls a type hostile to TTar.
Sendout + Round 1:
Ryuki has
Raging Bolt ft. Toxtricity, Elec/Poison, Technician, 12 SpA
Gouging Fire ft. Flygon, Fire/Bug, Levitate, 10 Atk
raging bolt holding specs was the first send
Nidoking was hoping for this first MU. Because Gouging also has Levitate, TSpikes aren't useful here, but regular Rocks are.
I don't see: Item control, screens, or hazard control. We only have to sub for Protection, Decoy, the Technician HP Ground (does 32 with Specs!) but HP Ground... hurts a LOT
no rocks main order. we'd rather do 36 damage now than do "15, maybe 27" damage later.
yes life orb. we could do some dumb shit like "no item, thief :)" but that leaves us on specs and bolt on a free slot. better to seal hidden power or make him control speed for it.
we just want to blow up this pokemon.
can we do double Decoy subs? to block out Hidden Power and speed-lowering actions? resisted specs Hyper Voice deals 18... it's also sketchy on step 3, where i could get roar combo'd?
the disable line we had assumed just makes Bolt do Speed Control -> Hidden Power. and for what. is there any speed control they can do that we fear? -> Yes, they can do Hidden Power + Zap Cannon.
double kick to break subs. our variable-hits are inaccurate
no "if protect then rocks" sub. we want to focus on winning this race.
do any of these speed-lowering moves bypass substitute? -> yes, snarl + scary face beats sub. augh. we cannot do triple "if x then substitute" here.
if we do "if hidden power [at all] this round, then disable it" what's the abuse case. he orders hidden power step 3 and does what to us step one. substitute? zap cannon combo?
aside: metagross takes 30 even from Specs HP Ground, and 21 from itemless. Meta deals 23 back with unboosted Psychic Fangs and also doesn't outspeed Bolt.
Helios WILL switch next round, and Ryuki has no boots. We could try to get Rocks down after all.
His Super Potion will also be annoying later.
electroweb + zap cannon triggers "if speed-lowering action" but we probably do not care.
Resuming notes on the 21st:
of all things, scary face -> hidden power x2 sets up a fast KO on nidoking that blanks my second order. do we have to steal the specs after all?
Thunderclap combos with a bunch of annoying stuff, including Eerie Impulse.
this matchup is so explosive that we maybe should avoid it going first? do we go focus sash instead? HP hits us for 16 and we do much less (15) back with no life orb. And Raging Bolt starts out 15 HP above us.
I'm not entirely convinced 2 of Ryuki's tech are worth 18 HP (via "IF para-inflicting combo AND no decoy THEN use sub). we might actually prefer to just suffer the para.
I'm not sure why i was down on stealing Specs first. It resolves our outstanding issues with this damage race--we deal 38 and take 23, and still hit Gouging very hard too. Our Thief use is a dead turn, though.
Speed-lowering actions only affect this MU immediately; we're slower than Gouging as-is. He's also unlikely to switch Gouging ft. Flygon into a Pokemon that knows Head Smash, I'd hope.
So, we can get rid of the two subs that bloated into "if speed lowering, and not sealed, and you are faster, then disable (hidden power)"
Sticky Barb would remove specs and let king grab Life Orb later; but 1) there probably isn't going to BE a later for king, and 2) it requires contact, so we're going to do much less damage anyway that step, and specs let us make up the lost ground.
Stealing specs is a crucial defensive measure first; gaining specs is icing.
Bolt doesn't learn RAIN DANCE??? They can't Weather Ball me?????
why does that mfer have levitate i want to tspikes so bad
we get morning sun???
Something like:
Brutus - Earth Power | Earth Power | Earth Power
On your turn, IF Raging Bolt is subject to Protection THEN use Stealth Rock on first instance, and use Morning Sun on second instance.
On your turn, IF Raging Bolt is to use Hidden Power AND you are faster than Raging Bolt THEN use Disable (Hidden Power).
On your turn, IF Raging Bolt has a Decoy, THEN use Double Kick.
On your turn, IF Raging Bolt is holding Choice Specs, THEN use Thief.
it feels a little odd to arrive at bog-standard subs and orders after going through the above iteration, but i suppose they're standard for a reason.
Round 2:
Nidoking with specs at 26 HP para 3.
Raging Bolt itemless at 38 18 HP.
ryuki is switching to Gouging ft. Flygon @ Choice Band
Banded EQ outspeeds and KOs.
If we have a good priority combo, we should stay in to use it. Staying in blanks our second order, since Gouging destroys us in one hit.
We have Protect, Detect, and Sucker Punch:
Protect + Reflect means Gouging needs to Psychic Fang us or critically hit.
Detect combos with nothing of use.
Sucker Punch mainly combos with Head Smash to deal a lot of damage.
Combo Level used to matter, but currently no longer does.
The very low-damage Thief gave him a lot of leeway. With the Super Potion in tow, Ryuki has essentially two full-HP mons and I'm set to go down to one on first step of second order.
"Then protect on first and third instance" for the hidden power sub would have helped avoid this.
If we switch, Nidoking will for sure give away a free step later... Unless we can position him to win in two steps, or to faint in two steps. The play is probably to take the switch. Either way, we have to order into Gouging Fire going first, and we have to Mega Evolve to profitably fight it.
So whether we switch or not, we need to plan Mega TTar into Gouging Fire now.
Ordering first into Gouging is fraught... No matter what, I don't know how we beat Bug Giga Impact, Super Potion, Double Kick + Giga Impact Combo. This line deals 30 and 40, and heals 40 on the sluggish turn. This mon that is x2 to my stab feels like they do more damage than me. And the -subs doesn't matter.
The player with first send gets to order second round 1, *and* gets to switch asap after, to set up whatever 4hko they like... This feels unrecoverable if I switch.
With two subs, Gouging Can write these to beat Nidoking guaranteed:
Earthquake x3
Start of step IF Protective Move THEN Dragon Cheer (beats Reflect)
Start of step IF Sucker Punch THEN Dragon Dance
Because Nidoking has 26 HP and band EQ deals 29, Skull Bash doesn't save me either. Nidoking can't usefully stay in, except to... Protect, Endure, Protect? Does saccing him for second order do anything? Not really.
Since Bolt is lower than we thought (18 hp), TTar only has to muscle through "1.5" Pokemon. Still a tall order.
There isn't much that stops Helios from just ordering raw Dragon Cheer -> Super Potion -> EQ, either.
Ryuki CANNOT Giga + Double Kick TTar... going second. They can still do it going first.
TTar Rock Tomb does (6 + 3 + 11 - 9) * 2 = 22. If it hits.
Rock Blast at least deals with Decoys natively.
We can't wall out Giga Impact with just a Protect sub. It only causes Sluggish on
successful completion.
Even without Giga, Gouging's best hit is STAB SE Body Slam for 18, and he can switch to Reversal whenever desired using an HP threshold sub.
Our Weather Ball deals 28 even with our low SpA. It can be a fourth sub "On your turn, IF the weather is Sandstorm AND Gouging Fire has no Decoy THEN use Weather Ball."
We don't learn Weather Ball; Gouging Fire does.
[bLater:[/b]
Burning Bulwark is spammable.
The next day:
Building an orderset around Rock Blast main order, with Weather Ball sub, is our best way out.
Gouging's moves we have to care about:
Giga Impact - hits us for 30 and Ryuki can super potion during the sluggish turn
Burning Bulwark - no contact moves without "and no Protection"
Substitute - our weather ball sub has to say "and no decoy"
Reversal - deals 34 damage at max BAP. It becomes a better hit than Body Slam (18) at about 50% HP (8 BAP)
Body Slam - likely inflict paralysis, putting us in a bad position vs. raging bolt and denying any speed control (what do you mean Bolt doesn't get THUNDER SHOCK??)
Stomping Tantrum - Hits us for 26 after a Protected giga impact (because no self-sluggish)
What is Nidoking going to do for us while paralyzed with choice specs? manually switch in, two rounds from now to soak a first order? that just gives ryuki a free decoy unless we can make ourselves faint.
"IF no Decoy AND no Paralysis AND no Protection THEN Power Gem + Thunder Wave" sticks Paralysis and eases the rest of this. But that costs 39 Energy, which we can't afford.
We don't learn Weather Ball. Gouging Fire learns Weather Ball.
Without Weather Ball, there's no real guarantee we hit anything we throw at Gouging Fire.
Mercifully, Gouging Fire has exactly zero ways to interact with our Accuracy or their own Evasion.
Gouging Fire can't combo out of "if move then counter" by making "move" special; because Ryuki lacks the Tech.
We still probably would rather mitigate Giga Impact than take it directly, however we can, because putting TTar to 35 with two Giga Impacts, and taking 50 back after Super Potion, is exactly a line Helios would go for if we invited it with Counter.
We have two possible subs for this:
"At start of step, IF Gouging Fire is to use Giga Impact THEN Protect on first instance and Counter on later instances."
This version is soft to... Giga, Giga, Stomping Tantrum? We go to 39 (by taking 30 + 26), deal 45 back on Giga 2, 6 with Sand, and 28 with an average Rock Blast step 3. Fire ends this line at 21, faster than us, with the option to use Reversal in the coming round. Double Kick Combo does 34; we can't risk being this low.
Ryuki can also go Giga, Stomping, anything. OR... Gouging's chance to hit two Giga Impacts at -2 Acc is 0.65 * 0.65 * 0.65 * 0.65 = about 17.8%.
"At start of step, IF Gouging Fire is to use Giga Impact this step and not Stomping Tantrum next step THEN Protect on first instance and Counter on later instances."
Ryuki can order Giga, Giga, Super Potion. We end at 65 HP, and Ryuki ends, depending no potion target, with GF 61/RB 18 or GF 21/RB 58. Either way, we haven't controlled any speed in these instances.
We can maybe lose the sub:
"On your turn, IF Gouging Fire has Protection, THEN use Block on first instance and Thunder Wave on later instances."
Even though it'd be nice to discourage Bulwark, we don't care if Ryuki chicken dances this round and we probably need the sub for mitigating Giga Impact.
If we take two Giga Impacts and counter them both, we end up at 35, or at 18 if Gouging does Giga, Body Slam, Giga. We deal 90 back with Counter, 6 with Sand, and easily KO if we land any attack Step 2. But we end up getting Revenge KO'd by Raging Bolt Giga Impact + Body Press, or at least cleaned up by a Super Potion line. Detect + Rock Polish costs FIFTY (50) En, so we can't use that "on second instance" to sub for Giga.
Given that Ryuki can easily switch, we can lose this complicated nonsense trying to land Rock Blast + Mud Slap.
( On your turn, IF Gouging Fire is to use Aim on any step AND Gouging Fire has no Decoy THEN use Rock Tomb on first instance and Rock Blast on later instances.
On your turn step 1 or step 2, IF able THEN use Rock Blast + Mud-Slap.)
If we can position well, we don't actually give a shit if Gouging Fire mitigates our combo with Aim — they took a Rock Blast to the face. The combo costs 15 En, and we can no longer combo ordering second, but that's a steal.
We use Thunder Wave second because we don't want to give Gouging Fire bug-type Facade for free.
"On your turn, IF Gouging Fire has no Decoy AND you are slower than Gouging Fire THEN use Rock Tomb." <- this sub gives up a lot of damage if Gouging lands paralysis with Body Slam.
Our orders will be something like:
Gunhilde - [Mega Evolve] Rock Blast | Rock Blast | Rock Blast
On your turn, IF Gouging Fire is subject to Protection THEN use Stealth Rock and push down on first instance and Thunder Wave and push down on later instances.
Once, when you are hit with Giga Impact IF able THEN use Counter.
Once, on your turn in step 1 or step 2, IF Gouging Fire's Accuracy stage is 0 THEN use Rock Blast + Mud Slap.
At this time, we still have 51 round hours left. No need to rush.
...We do also have Rockium-Z. Z-Harm stealth rock deals 30, and Z-Force Stone Edge deals a staggering 54 damage. But our average Rock Blast afterwards deals only 24. 54 + 24 + 24 = 102, just barely a KO. One 2-hit can still KO with sand, but even one miss ruins it. We can also combo and Z-Move in the same round.
Orders with Rockium-Z look like this:
Gunhilde - Rock Blast | Rock Blast | Rock Blast
On your turn, IF Gouging Fire is subject to Protection THEN use Stealth Rock on first instance and Thunder Wave on later instances.
Once, when you are hit with Giga Impact IF able THEN use Counter.
On your turn, IF Gouging Fire has 50 or less HP AND Gouging Fire has no Decoy THEN use Z-Force Stone Edge.
some fourth sub.
Can Gouging Fire beat Nidoking's Protect | Endure | Protect? If they can't break endure, we might be willing to stay in, make them chicken dance, then spam Head Smash x3 to make them KO us, and *then* try to win with second order with TTar into (presumably boosted) Gouging. One turn of Dragon Cheer on Raging Bolt would be annoying, but very managable. -> No go, Gouging has Fire Spin. Scroll up for Nidoking's notes.
With two subs, Gouging Can write these to TRY to beat Nidoking guaranteed:
Earthquake x3
Start of step IF Protective Move THEN Dragon Cheer (beats Reflect)
Start of step IF Endure THEN Fire Spin + Hyper Beam
...but this doesn't do enough with, even with crit, even with Partial Trapping. We take 16 + 3 + 4 = 21 from the one attack we take.
So if we stay in, what does Gouging get? +4.5 damage against TTar, and possibly a decoy? TTar doesn't give a shit about Decoys. He's not going to Roar (inting), Morning Sun (full HP),
Ryuki might order Howl, Dragon Cheer, or Dragon Dance. Maaaybe Sleep Talk? I think Dragon Cheer and Dragon Dance are the most appealing — Helios will especially want to fire crit Draco Meteors in a pinch with Bolt.
If we stay in, chicken dance all second order, and then Head Smash > if decoy then double kick our way off of the field, then what happens when ttar comes in to order second is that Ryuki switches to Raging bolt to blank our second order. How much can ttar do to Bolt?
If Mega: 28 with Earthquake, and 20 with Bulldoze.
If Rockium: 24 with EQ and 16 with Bulldoze.
As a result, staying in isn't a guaranteed win. We can option select between Sucker Punch + Lovely Kiss, Protect + Reflect, and... Endure, but the Prot Endure Prot line doesn't help us. Nidoking is probably more useful when we get our own chance to aggressively switch; or to counterswitch and spam Head Smash later. It's not like a free Decoy helps Ryuki.
Days later:
We can Lifeline Cleanse our Nidoking if we ever need to order first with them. This means retaining them at least helps us limp to a win if needed.
Revisiting the Mud-Slap Combo line: The hardest part is trying to find a way to sub "if no Aim ever, then combo on step or step 2". Pushing down can result on us combing on step 3, unless we specifically write one sub for "if aim anywhere then rock blast" and another for "step 1 or step 1, if able, rock blast + mud slap"
The Counter sub is a fun way to discourage Gouging's best attack, but the -2 Accuracy already does that.
Without a Protect of our own, we don't need to sub for Stomping Tantrum. Gouging gets a 15 BAP attack on us after they miss, but... they missed. And we presumably hit them. We're fine with that outcome.
We specify "no Decoy" because our subs could potentially call Rock Tomb. We want Rock Tomb in our subs to incentivize Helios to switch in the coming round, so we can counterswitch and, if needed, Lifeline Cleanse.
Our orders will be:
Gunhilde - [Mega Evolve] Rock Blast | Rock Blast | Rock Blast
Once, when you are hit with Giga Impact IF able THEN use Counter.
On your turn, IF Gouging Fire is subject to Protection THEN use Stealth Rock on first instance and Thunder Wave on later instances.
On your turn, IF Gouging Fire is to use Aim at all this round AND Gouging Fire has no Decoy THEN use Rock Tomb on first instance and Rock Blast on later instances.
On your turn in step 1 or step 2, IF Gouging Fire has no Decoy THEN use Rock Blast + Mud Slap on first instance and Rock Tomb on second instance.
Round 3
Based on the rolls... We 2 hit, Gouging misses on step 2, and we two hit on step 3? Dodging the super potion sub, but we deal 72 total and take 15 + 26
TTar 54 hp, 72 en vs. gouging 28 hp whatever en? Gouging is dead to Stone Edge (80%) or Rock Slide + Sand if we want to take a hit? I think we stay in no matter what Ryuki does. Ryuki will want to switch so that he can try to Zap combo us again. But we have a lot of time to lab it out.
We can no longer combo ordering second.
Because of Unnerve, the Enigma Berry on Raging Bolt does nothing, so we're staying in. Our Bulldoze deals 20 and our Earthquake deals 28, plus 2 each from Sand. If Helios uses Super Potion on the backline, we can even Dragon Dance first.
If Helios uses Super Potion on Raging Bolt to go to 51 HP, and we Earthquake back, Bolt goes to (51 - 28 - 2) = 21 HP that turn. So if we Bulldoze, Bolt gets an extra turn before fainting to sand. We're tight on HP and Tech, so we can't afford to get too cute with our hits taken.
On Monday
Ryuki switched to Raging Bolt @ Nothing (functionally), and we stayed in. Ryuki is trying to Zap Cannon combo us again. We can KO on step 1, but then we're stuck at Low HP against Gouging again, who can threaten... no Combo, if we're ordering first. But Reversal is a big threat.
Do we want to trigger the Dragon Tail sub? I don't know if we care, once Ryuki is down to one Pokemon. Alternatively, we can use
Rest | Sleep Talk | Rock Polish to outspeed bolt next round and KO with Power-Up Punch, taking no more damage from Thunderclap as long as we sub "IF Thunderclap THEN decoy once". Over four actions, we'd take a total of 18 + 16, heal 20 (TTar 43), but allow Ryuki to heal 40 from our passivity. A 68-HP Gouging Fire, ordering first while we lack a combo, can be a real problem.
Check what Gouging can do to a step 1 Decoy. If we go down to 57 - 18 - 19 = 20 HP, can Gouging get us with any #sound attack? Does Gouging get Double Kick?
39 HP lets us switch to Nidoking and start swinging, but then we're at the mercy of Paralysis skip on both Pokemon. With the Rest line, we have 43 HP and no Strain next round ordering first, letting us beat up on Gouging.
If we did that, Ryuki's best plan with Thunderclap would be to try to stall our Speed boost. But thanks to Draco Meteor (assuming it hits), we're taking a total of 1. We can just ignore Thunderclap. Ryuki also can't combo.
/nms raging bolt, priority > 0
Matching moves found in learnset(s) for Raging Bolt:
Endure, Protect, Thunderclap
Our orders this round are
Gunhilde - Rest | Sleep Talk | Rock Polish
Our orders
next round (4) are:
Gunhilde - Power-Up Punch | Power-Up Punch | Power-Up Punch
On your turn IF Raging Bolt has Protection THEN Dragon Dance on first instance and Stealth Rock on second instance.
(
we ignore endure thanks to our sand, and thunderclap thanks to the drops. raging bolt would have their stage back to 0 on step 3, but they'll never make it there.)
On
round 5 step 1, we'd have our last step of rock polish, assuming ryuki doesn't let us Dragon Dance. We'll also be on our last round of Sandstorm. By now, we're as low as 42 HP. Our orders are... we get to order second round 5.
THATS THE ENTIRE POINT OF THE LINE, LOU. invincible gif.
If I prevent the Super Potion this round, I'm... gambling with the Rock Stabs. Again. Ryuki would be happy with that?
Version A:
-r3: EQ Bolt. TTar is Strain 2, 39 HP.
-r4: Switch to Nidoking. TTar is strain 3, King is strain 4. Spam Head Smash. Ryuki has to fit a super potion step 3, but can leave Nidoking alive with careful chicken dancing, KO r5, and then second order into TTar r6.
r3: EQ Bolt. TTar is strain 2, 39 HP.
r4: gouging orders second with 28 HP. They can super potion when it's strongest, and also spam Iron Head for a flinch. But they have to Potion step 1 or risk dying to rock blast + mud shot? So it's super potion/protect -> superpotion/protect -> what.
r5: ttar or nidoking first, but we're strain 4+ no matter who be bring in.
Just taking the Paralysis is promising with our potential Rock Blast + Mud Shot. A 2-hit Mud Shot combo would still leave Gouging faster than us (35 spe TTar vs. 36 spe -2 GF). Tragic!
That means we have about a 60% chance of -3 Spe, and a 59% chance of -2 Acc paying off with at least 1 miss. (not counting the odds of helios ordering aim)
39 HP is close to an Iron Head 2hko. Also close to a Giga Impact (30) or 1 hp Reversal (34) OHKO, but not quite.
A round 4 mud-*slap* combo would try to overload Ryuki's step 1 — they have to super potion, but they also want to Aim. They would probably either try to stall towards Strain in r5 (that's so far away) or just raw gamble to win—and they'd be rewarded on a 30% iron head flinch step 1 (30%) or a 2-hit combo step 1 (33%). Iron Head -> 56% acc Reversal beats us about 69.2% of the time (0.3 flinch, + 0.7 no flinch * 0.56 acc). We actually do need the extra Speed and HP. We can also work a Rock Slide spam into the subs.
We also have a line with Lifeline Cleanse. The issue being, even if we drop a surprise Cleanse next round, we're still slower. We can save Cleanse for a 4-strain situation.
We're doing the Rest line.
Round 4
We have orders for this round already. Scroll up.
If Draco Meteor missed, awesome. Continue ignoring Thunderclap — if we didn't take 16 from meteor, we don't care about taking 7 from Thunderclap.
Round 5
We have 42 HP and
33 Energy — that Energy is important! We have to manage it, but we can also use it to faint on purpose if we need Nidoking to clean up going first!
Gouging Fire has, ostensibly, a 2HKO on us with Iron Head into Giga Impact. They have a Choice Band, greatly harming their ability to sub Protect against our combos. They're still probably going to sub Protect for Mud-Slap.
We have a weird set of remaining buffs: 2 turns of Sleep Talk if we need to Rest and 2 turns of Speed. We can do 34 with Power Gem + Hyper Beam... and
All we can do is wait for Ryuki's orders.
We have Ryuki's orders, and we can blank all of his attacks this round thanks to Dig. I think we have a lethal line involving
Gunhilde - Dig | Rock Throw | Stone Edge + Bulldozers. No we don't, that costs 2 Tech.
Dread enemy-banded Foul Play deals a nice clean (10 + 3 + 15 - 9) * 1.5 = 28.5. We can use that as a non-Rock nuke as needed. Bite deals (6 + 3 + 2) * 1.5 = 16.5 with Dread, for only 4 Energy.
Well that's a pretty pickle. A line like Bulldoze | Bulldoze | Dig saves us HP, but only deals 12 per Bulldoze and 10 from the Dig (because PuP wears off). Can we prep Gouging for Nidoking this way? Nidoking can't clear 34 Gouging HP on its own. Neither can TTar, really, with such low Energy.
We can't take Iron Head (15) into a 10 BAP Reversal (24) without a good reason, we risk a crit ending us.
Rock Throw, Dig, Bulldoze deals 0 + 14 + 8 + 6 sand, leaving 30 HP. Not quite Foul Play range.
Dig, Dig, Bulldoze deals 14 + 14 + 8 + 6, leaving 16 HP. But it costs a total of 21 En, leaving us... 12. This could be a winning line. We can do chill x3, if protect then chill, if burning bulwark then taunt, if endure then chill, if no protection then bite.
Dig, Bulldoze, Foul Play deals 12+14+28.5=54.5, and then 6 more from sand, leaving 8 HP, but we sac TTar for it, I think.
We have two options: Try to KO next round with TTar, or with Nidoking.
Anything like "On your turn IF no Protection THEN Foul Play" can help beat Burning Bulwark.
okay nevermind this should be lethal.
our round 6 orders should be like this
Gunhilde - Foul Play | Foul Play | Foul Play
At start of step, IF Gouging Fire is to use Burning Bulwark THEN use Taunt.
At start of step, IF Gouging Fire is to use Protect THEN Chill.
At start of step, IF Gouging Fire is to use Endure THEN use Taunt.
We could have stumbled the KO by 2 HP by Gouging doing Endure -> Attack, because the Defense Aid would have given us only 24 damage from Foul Play, and sand is over. But we crit Dig because TTar loves us, so all is well.