Tournament SCL IV DOU Discussion Thread

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eragon

eragon

electrodynamics
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skibidi mish. i copied this post from zee who copied it from Fc who probably copied it from someone else

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Welcome to the Smogon Champions League 4 Discussion Thread -- DOU edition! This thread will be used to discuss DOU in SCL IV related topics, whether it’s about the players, general metagame trends, matches, predictions and so on. Teams, Replays, and Usage Stats can be found here.

Commencement Thread


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DOU Player Cores
Gible - bagel
Islanders - qsns, zoe
Platoon - Xrn, Lunar (manager)
Terrors - sempra, xqiht
Machines - Nails, eragon
Foxes - EternalSnowman, Ann
Dynamos - kingofmars, Grandmas Cookin
Shoguns - Frixel, Akaru Kokuyo
Breakers - Spurrific, zee (manager)
Spartans - JRL, tenzai

Pricelist

Nails- 24k
Spurrific- 20k
Xrn- 17.5k
qsns-14.5k
bagel- 10.5k
sempra- 8.5k
Akaru Kokuyo- 4.5k
Frixel- 4k
Grandmas Cookin- 4k
JRL- 4k
kingofmars- 3.5k
Ann- 3k
eragon- 3k
EternalSnowman- 3k
tenzai- 3k
xqiht- 3k
zoe- 3k

Power Rankings and the season spreadsheet will be linked here when those are available.
 
Realized eragon started the thread and forgot to post the video he wanted to advertise here LOL so there's that.

Aside from that, really looking forward to the metagame developments that will come out of this tour. With ting lu comps having become well-developed parts of the metagame, it will be interesting to see how top players adjust in builder. I've also noticed a lot of hearthflame usage, more scarf lando-i usage, and increased development of psysand teams leading up to this tournament but we'll have to see what sticks. I definitely think we're in for a meta shakeup though as ting lu comps have begun to exit their fad phase. I'll check back in with this thread in a few weeks with teams that catch my eye and discuss them here.
 
SV DOU: Xrn vs Akaru Kokuyo

Not bolding against Xrn until he gives me a reason to. Had a phenomenal run last year and was a huge part of his winning DPL team. Akaru has had a solid year in circuit and is currently ranked #6 for 2024. Despite being near the end of the PRs I think this is an incredible matchup and speaks to the pools strength but yeah I'm just way too high on Xrn.

SV DOU: kingofmars vs bagel

Pretty interesting pairing. I rate kom higher in raw skill but I feel like he's going to take a week or two to find his footing so I'm gonna bold bagel, though I do feel like I'd probably be bolding this the other way after midseason. However, bagel is just insanely active and good at what he does. If you would consult the sheet... he is #1 for 2024 and he didn't get there for nothing.

SV DOU: sempra vs JRL

Going yungpra here. sempra slowed down on the vgc grind this year and came a set short of winning OSDT to show for it, I imagine he'll be similarly motivated for this tour and I think he's just more in form than JRL right now.

SV DOU: EternalSnowman vs Nails

It'd be pretty boring if I just picked the higher PR player for each slot. I think ESM probably has the biggest potential to upset Nails compared to the other pairings here. Clickers > computers. I think eragon can probably counterstyle ESM's building tendencies pretty strongly though, so curious to see if that helps Nails find a matchup advantage. If he gets there I don't think he'd fumble it. Personal highlight of w1 out of these pairings.
 
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went 3/4 last week, shoutouts to JRL for stopping me from 4/4.

SV DOU: Nails (0-1) vs qsns (0-1)

god what a banger of a pairing but so unfortunate for both that it's at 0-1. obviously agree with frixel that this is the highlight of the week. I think I've gotta take qsns here, Nails's team from last week was generally uninspiring and didn't feel much different from any team you'd see during a high level 2023 game. Even if qsns fell short in gameplay they brought a solid team and a great call. Really don't wanna bold anyone here but I'm committing to not backing out of any predicts for the season.

SV DOU: JRL (1-0) vs Xrn (1-0)

Keeping my word of not bolding against Xrn until he gives me a reason not to. Very hyped for this game as it's the only 1-0 v 1-0 of the week and I liked both w1 teams a lot. But I do think Xrn just had to do more outplaying in his game compared to JRL's and that's good enough for me to predict him.

SV DOU: bagel (1-0) vs sempra (0-1)

bagel's game from last week wasn't particularly close in a good way and sempra's wasn't particularly close in a bad way. I still have some stocks in sempra's abilities but bagel has been on a heater recently and I just don't expect him to be slowing down any time soon. Predicting a better team and better play from him.

SV DOU: Akaru Kokuyo (0-1) vs EternalSnowman (1-0)

To be quite honest there's a voice in my head telling me to bold Akaru. I thought their w1 team wasn't bad at all and if they keep up that style of building then it could be a pretty scary game for ESM. But, I'm gonna cheap out and bold the 1-0 player & the goat of the cratermakers and ice riders. I was a fan of the week 1 team, as someone who brought manaphy 2x last SCL I am definitely a believer, and while I think his game was more straightforward he still played p well.
 
SV DOU: JRL vs Potatochan - 0/100 gl

SV DOU: bagel vs sempra - 55/45
Cool pick by bagel bringing a threat KOM wasn't going to expect and he played it well to a win. Wasn't a big fan of sempra's team, don't think he really had a chance. Full HO without any speed control is rather dubious and priospam isn't making up for that in every matchup as we saw in game. I expect this to be closer than either of their games were last week as sempra will hopefully do better in the builder this week and bagel is less likely to catch him completely off guard. But bagel looked great and need to see sempra loading more solid teams before I place my faith in him.

SV DOU: Spurrific vs kingofmars - 70/30
Both brought pretty straight forward Tailwind HOs but the games were certainly not similar. Very rough debut for KOM, a poor lead snowballed quickly as Specstrier just clicked Shadow Ball into whichever slot was vulnerable. Spurrific showed he's already a player to watch out for by taking down qsns, his play overall was extremely clean. Spurrific seems to be in great form so hard to expect KOM to immediately bounce back. Hopefully he shows some promise for future weeks though.

SV DOU: Akaru Kokuyo vs EternalSnowman - 40/60
Probably the two most out there builders this tour so should be entertaining. Neat sun team from Akaru with Blursa relying on After You Hilligant and TR Farig to enable it. I know he was a fan of the bagel sun sample so not crazy to see but certainly an interesting take on the style, fortunately for me he got a couple key plays wrong to lose. ESM brought back Manaphy from this time last year in DWCOP, a nice pick against Nails, and won in a pretty strong display by just sticking to the gameplan. Not going to predict against ESM here given his recent showings, I do think there's a good chance this comes down to matchup though.

**HIGHLIGHT**
SV DOU: Nails vs qsns - 51/49
#2 and #3 in the PRs respectively suffered upsets last week and one will be going 0-2 here in a clash of meta views. Nails returned with a team straight out of last year, featuring SR Lando-T and Grassy Seed Chi-Yu with double Fake Out + Wetpon to support. Bleakwind shenanigans helped him out early on but he didn't set up Chi-Yu in time and ended up getting rolled by Manaphy. qsns also opted for a terrain focused Tornadus team with Chi-Yu and Wetpon for W1, difference being it was a much more offensive Crown Blursa psyspam. They started hot but Spurrific clawed back and a couple odd midgame plays took them out of it. Expect both will say "I just played bad" and try to shake it off without reading too much into the loss. Prediction is qsns gets a small matchup advantage but Nails plays slightly cleaner to win. note: I could totally flipflop on this by the time the game happens
 
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SV DOU: Nails vs qsns - highlight of the week
SV DOU: JRL vs Xrn
SV DOU: bagel vs sempra
SV DOU: Spurrific vs kingofmars
SV DOU: Akaru Kokuyo vs EternalSnowman
 
SV DOU: Nails vs qsns - The closest match of the week but I gotta give it to the player not loading year old teams
SV DOU: JRL vs Xrn - JRL looked hungry for a win last week
SV DOU: bagel vs sempra - I'm not bolding a non-mainer against bagel after last week
SV DOU: Spurrific vs kingofmars - Spurrific managed to outplay QSNS to a victory in extraordinary fashion last week and I only expect him to get stronger as the season goes on
SV DOU: Akaru Kokuyo vs EternalSnowman - I'm not bolding against the best player in the pool, much as I love Akaru
 
Last minute predictions!

SV DOU: Nails vs qsns - qsns is amazing, but I don't think Nails will lose two weeks in a roll.

SV DOU: JRL vs Xrn - I ranked Xrn last in this past SCL and what a mistake I made, ever since then everytime I see him playing I always watch such a clean game with a very solid gameplan, and while I think JRL is an incredible player I think Xrn will win.

SV DOU: bagel vs sempra - I think bagel is the best builder of sv and he's an insanely solid player, while I didn't really like sempra's team. I think if sempra has a better matchup he might win, but I trust in bagel to win even that.

SV DOU: Spurrific vs kingofmars - I saw kingofmars' game and... I don't wanna talk about it.

SV DOU: Akaru Kokuyo vs Ann - I think Ann will go to USA, break esm's legs and get subbed in to play Akaru. It's either this or we'll lose the greatest game of this tour! Good luck to both!
 
Last minute predictions from me as welll

SV DOU: Nails vs qsns - both of them are really good players, but I believe in Qsns to swing thing around for themselves

SV DOU: JRL vs Xrn - Xrn has been playing super cleanly in dou for a whole year, I think he continues his good performance here.

SV DOU: bagel vs sempra - 6-0ing in the first week with no support has me in total awe with bagel and my whole belief he’ll do well.

SV DOU: Spurrific vs kingofmars - I saw kingofmars' game too and... I also don't wanna talk about it.

SV DOU: Akaru Kokuyo vs Ann - Ann is someone I like a lot and someone I think will do good, especially with ESM support
 
week 3 predicts, currently sitting at 6/7 because of the bagel sub

Xrn (2-0) vs bagel (1-0)

See previous Xrn predicts. He got himself into a hole early in last week's game v JRL but carefully navigated a Pokemon and a speed disadvantage to find himself in a pretty clean endgame. bagel technically doesn't have a loss on his record but he apparently took several to his alarm last week so we're missing a data point here. Still I'm expecting this to be the highlight of the week between two v strong players.

kingofmars (0-2) vs Nails (0-2)

The 6-3 seems to be getting away from Nails a little bit but I think he'll find some footing vs Gavin who's having a bit harder of a team integrating into DOU then he probably would've hoped. Both of these guys loaded three Ice types last week and I think both teams were a little questionable but I think Nails will probably find himself in a good matchup and not squander his advantage.

EternalSnowman (2-0) vs qsns (1-1)

Not sure if this is an upset or not because it's better record v better PR but I'm gonna bold qsns here. I thought both of their team choices so far had been solid and I think as a player and builder qsns is going to have an easier time handling ESM's style of play then his previous opponents. That being said ESM's team's (keep in mind the sample size is: two (2)) have been pretty tough to see coming, so if ESM can blindside qsns in the builder this could easily go the other way.

Akaru Kokuyo (0-2) vs JRL (1-1)

Hispanohablantes showdown. I've liked JRL's team choices more than Akaru's so far and the turn 2 from Akaru against ESM last week was tough to watch so I'm bolding JRL. Don't have much else to say about it.

Lots of close matches this week, excited to see my 6/7 go to 6/11
 
Potatochan vs tier - 50/50
the gible were too scared to unleash tier last week and Lunar. refused to let potato sub in for me but this time for sure

kingofmars vs Nails - 30/70
KOM has looked pretty outmatched thus far and going up against who I believe is his main testing partner could make prep annoying. Nails hasn't looked the sharpest either but I've at least seen potential win paths during his games and it's hard to see him dropping three in a row off rip. He has been a bit in his own world when it comes to team picks while KOM's brings have been closer to standard so I'm curious to see if either change their approach after starting 0-2. An underperforming Nails could be a good chance for KOM to get some momentum started too so we'll see.

sempra vs Spurrific - 35/65
Sempra brought a more sound team this week and played well to win against Seraphz once bagel no showed. Not a huge statement, however, it's still important to win those and good to see improvement. Meanwhile Spurrific played the first of this week's Arch Rain vs triple ice Snow games and took a very solid win despite not being able to use his bridge. This one could be closer than I'm giving it credit for but I rate Spurrific's team brings and gameplay super highly. By no means do I think sempra is in bad form I just really believe in Spurrific, definitely one of the players to beat.

Akaru Kokuyo vs JRL - 55/45
Interesting team from Akaru again, not really a fan but it shows effort at least. ESM's Chi-Yu was just too dangerous for him to ever get going really. JRL opted for a much more standard Tailwind Offense and also suffered a loss. He had a couple cool plays I just clicked better. Think Akaru will get on the board here, feels like a good player matchup for him in my mind. Hopefully he doesn't overcook and load some dogshit that tries to hard fish Torn HO while losing to everything else.
edit: Tenzai subbed in I got nothing to say still think Akaru wins but o actual reasoning anymore

EternalSnowman vs qsns - 49/51
Will qsns be able to solve the ESM puzzle? I think it's very possible although on paper I'm sure you'd have to favor ESM. He took another pretty straight forward win last week with some unique stuff, double redirection again but no real setup just Acid Spray Mew and some hitters. qsns got to play the other Arch Rain vs triple ice Snow game of the week and Wetpon clicked Cudgel a lot because they ran into the one no Freeze-Dry Kyurem and then they won. Both have been bringing good stuff, even though ESM's games have been cleaner I think qsns will really want to win this one and I'll trust them to figure it out.
 
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Xrn vs Bagel: Xrn keeps letting games slip a bit before reeling them back in for wins in great fashion, but I don't think bagel will give him the chance to recover if he gets out of position again. I know this perdiction would be a bit of an upset if it came to fruition though, and wouldn't be surprised to see Xrn at 3-0 at the end of the week.

kingofmars vs Nails: nails may be 0-2 but but his losses have been much closer than Gavin's and have been to, in my opinion, stronger opponents than gavin's had to face so far

sempra vs Spurrific: Spurrific is on a tear and I really don't expect that to stop soon. His gameplay is striking towards the very top of the pool in quality already and I don't expect him to falter against sempra

EternalSnowman vs Qsns: I maintain that ESM is the strongest player in the pool and he hasn't given me a reason to falter on that opinion yet.

Akaru vs JRL: Much as I would like to root for my NDPL teammate I know Akaru will be busy this week and JRL's play has looked much more consistent than Akaru's so far.
 
Xrn vs Bagel
kingofmars vs Nails
sempra vs Spurrific
EternalSnowman vs Qsns - highlight match of the week
Akaru vs Tenzai JRL - after sucessfully highjacking Akaru for 2 weeks in a row, we have decided to cooperate (in other words I really need the swiss extension)
 
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7/10 currently not counting the ann or seraphz games (I didn't post here w1 but did do predicts in the doucord scl channel)

freezai vs Potatochan - 0/100
not even close

bagel vs Akaru Kokuyo - 60/40
Akaru got on the board last week and looked solid but his team was still a bit weird and Tenzai didn't play too well. I'd say bagel's building and playing are both just a bit stronger right now. Snow is usually a smart pick into me and he played a pretty good game. There are some weaknesses in his scout that I think Akaru could possibly abuse but I definitely have to favor bagel.

JRL vs EternalSnowman - 30/70
Funnily enough both of them subbed out last week, though JRL's seemed intentional while ESM just overslept. I do not think JRL will be ready at all for this game honestly. ESM has been all about double redirection so far but he's built it in different ways each time and I'm sure his pockets are plenty deep. For the two weeks they did both play ESM looked cleaner as well. JRL hasn't been bad but it's certainly going to be uphill for him.

Nails vs sempra - 55/45
Neither have been playing their best, both 1-2 and neither of the wins were very meaningful in my eyes. Nails robbed the hell out of KOM last week, meanwhile sempra lost with the team that beat him W1 (-1000 Aura). Going off vibes here I think Nails will put more effort into prep then play well enough to win. He's been shaky though and sempra's got a high ceiling so wouldn't be surprised with either outcome.

qsns vs kingofmars - 60/40
qsns didn't get to play ESM last week but still beat a very good player in Ann. They had one big dodge that made it a fair amount easier, played well for sure though. As I just mentioned before KOM should've beaten Nails last week. He brought a neat team and got into a very strong position until Nails channeled his RBY luck. Ultimately I think qsns will just bring a better team and play pretty solidly to a win. Hope KOM isn't discouraged after last week though it was much better than his first two games.
 
SV DOU: Spurrific vs Xrn - highlight match of the week
SV DOU: bagel vs Akaru Kokuyo - I'm yet to play the extension
SV DOU: JRL vs EternalSnowman
SV DOU: Nails vs sempra
SV DOU: qsns vs kingofmars
 
after week 3: 8/9 (ESM and JRL were subbed)
after week 4: 12/13 (no subs and I went 4-0 in predicts yay)

sempra (1-3) vs qsns (3-1)

Either sempra is having a tough time finding his footing as an SCL starter or just hasn't had the time/motivation to tryhard. Unfortunately his only win so far has been against a sub. On the other hand, qsns has worked their way to 3-1 after a week 1 loss and I've really liked the teams they've been using (especially the team they brought last week!!). You could say that they probably shouldn't have made it out of week 4 with a win but you need to win games to win games and their opponent did not win the game.

EternalSnowman (3-0) vs GrandmasCookin (0-0)

OSDT was the only tour Gma really tryharded this year and I don't think they really expected to be on the battlefield this tour but they're in for kingofmars. ESM's games have not looked particularly difficult and I don't know if Gma's got what it takes to buck the trend. Maybe they can get him to switch his Pokemon.

Nails (2-2) vs Xrn (3-1)

Despite Nails pulling back from the 0-2 start and Xrn taking his first L last week I'm still going with the bold Xrn strategy. I think his teams and play have been better and have given him more room to outplay if he doesn't find himself with the matchup advantage.

JRL (1-2) vs bagel (2-1)

JRL subbed out in week 3 and did not have the greatest game last week, it's just hard for me to believe he's putting up full power JRL for this tour. bagel's having a pretty solid tour so far, each week seemingly pulling up with a strong metacall. I'm excited to see what he loads up this week and I'm gonna bold him.
 
SV DOU: bagel vs EternalSnowman
SV DOU: Spurrific vs Tenzai
SV DOU: Akaru Kokuyo vs Frixel - sources told us these players already have a fist fight scheduled
SV DOU: qsns vs Xrn - highlight match of the week and one of the best mus of the regular season
SV DOU: Grandmas Cookin vs sempra
 
SV DOU: bagel vs EternalSnowman (35-65)
This is a pretty competitive game with both players sitting at 3-1 (both having missed a game) and having faced some pretty similar opponents up until this point. Neither players schedule has been particularly difficult so far and both have some more difficult opponents coming up in the latter half of the season so I'd consider this a bit of an inflection point for both players. ESM suffered his first loss of the season last week with a matchup that looked almost completely unwinnable at preview with (imo) his least inspiring team on the season. On the other hand, bagel picked up another win last week with a bit of a reg f coded hearthflame balance team. Despite pretty even metrics in SCL so far, I do think this matchup will be a bit of an uphill battle for bagel. ESM's off-the-wall teambuilding style and historically excellent clicker instincts are bit of a tough draw for someone like bagel who typically relies on relatively standard team construction. However, if bagel can pull off a win here, I think it bodes well for his prospects for the rest of the season as he enters a more difficult part of the schedule.

SV DOU: Spurrific vs Tenzai (75-25)
For the last several years, each SCL has had a different DOU player that's pretty clearly outperformed the rest of the pool and so far this year that appears to be the 5-0 Burns, who's taken down a few of the other players that were high on the prs (xrn/qsns in particular) in pretty convincing fashion. Tenzai has generally been a little out of the loop this gen and the Spartans have struggled so far this season so I think there's a really clear favorite here. However, tenzai has historically pulled off some impressive upsets in past SCLs (being Xrn's only loss last year iirc) so a win here is definitely feasible albeit unlikely given the performances of both players so far.

SV DOU: qsns vs xrn (45-55)
Xrn + Lunar is a broken combo that was continued to put up good results following a dominant 9-1 run last year. However, I haven't been as impressed with Xrn's actual play (compared to last year), although he's still played well and found a way to convert in all but one of his games so far (against the aforementioned clear #1 in the pool rn). qsns has also posted a solid 3-2 record, with a couple of losses that were pretty within reach but had just a bit go wrong. These are last years top 2 players and I'm expecting a really competitive game here although I think both players are playing slightly below the level they were at least year (probably because the format is straight up worse). I'm giving xrn the advantage here because I think xrn and lunar prep better than probably everyone else in the pool and I think xrn's play has been a little more solid all around. Regardless, very excited for this one and I could easily see it going either way.

SV DOU: Grandmas Cookin vs Sempra (40-60)
Gma made his SCL IV debut last week, putting up an impressive win against the then-undefeated ESM, while Sempra pulled off an upset against qsns. I'm like not entirely sure how to evaluate this pairing as gma has been solid in sv but doesn't have too too many teamtour performances in the format and Sempra has been a little shaky but has shown flashes of brilliance. I'm leaning Sempra here because he's more in the swing of the season and dynamos are still 1-4. Gma's performance last week was definitely a breath of fresh air and could signal good things to come from that slot. However, I think sempra in theory is a bit of a better clicker than gma and his win last week has somewhat renewed my confidence in his slot so I'm bolding him here. Just like bagel/esm, I think this is an interesting bellwether game for how both players are going to play going forward so I'm looking forward to watching this one.
 
SV DOU: bagel vs EternalSnowman - 45/55
Most interesting pairing this week to me. Both have started off well with 3-1 records with all of their wins being quite dominant. These two are more or less opposites in terms of usual team picks and play style, but I expect bagel to do his homework and mix it up a bit here. Curious to see how this plays out, don't think it'll be particularly close either way despite viewing it as a near even matchup. Only slightly favor ESM.

SV DOU: Spurrific vs Tenzai - 90/10
As funny as it would be for Tenzai to be my only loss last year and potentially Spurrific's only loss this year, I just don't see it. I don't mind the Spartans giving him another shot but his game vs Akaru was not inspiring and Spurrific has been rock solid. Chien-Pao has a 10% chance to miss Icicle Crash so those are the odds I'll give Tenzai.

SV DOU: Nails vs Frixel - 70/30
I think Nails is on an upwards trajectory despite the mediocre start. The Shoguns core seems like it has been a bit of a mess to me, not sure what goes on in there. Frixel himself is a bit of a question mark, especially after subbing out last week, and to me this is a rough matchup for him to debut in. It's definitely good that he's getting a shot but I personally don't see it being a huge improvement.

SV DOU: qsns vs Xrn - nobody wins
Screenshot_20240924-001241.png


SV DOU: Grandmas Cookin vs sempra - 51/49
Both players and teams coming off key wins as they try to build some momentum. Gma had a very nice pick into ESM and played smooth to a win which I'm sure the Dynamos are happy about after KOM's last couple barely slipped away. Sempra brought a bit of an improved version of his W1 team and got some great endgame calls right against qsns to show his potential is still there. To me sempra definitely has a scarier ceiling but Gma's prep has been good in recent weeks and his limited SV showings are strong, so fuck it I'll believe in him here.
 
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EternalSnowman vs sempra
Xrn vs Grandmas Cookin
Frixel vs qsns - quick shotted, not even scopped
Exotic64 vs Nails
bagel vs Spurrific - highlight match of the week
 
EternalSnowman vs sempra - Sempra's season hasn't been great, ESM is my goat
Xrn vs Grandmas Cookin - Gma will have the courage to fake out XRN's sash tornadus
Frixel vs qsns - Qsns is building very good
Exotic64 vs Nails - Player I don't know anything about versus competent SCL player
bagel vs Spurrific - Simply looks unstoppable
 
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