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Tournament SCL V DOU Discussion Thread

low-effort predicts are no longer in vogue so i guess i'll lock in (medium-effort post incoming instead)

Ann vs Nails - 30/70
this is an x-1 nails pool and i don't think Ann has the momentum or the sauce to stop him this week
Feyy vs MADARAAAA - 51/49
i don't think MADARAAAA has had the greatest tour so far (& clearly neither has Feyy), if Mike & Feyy can avoid loading dogshit like they did last week i think they can take this one
SEA vs bagel - 60/40
SEA & era's week 1 load impressed me a fair bit with how well they cteamed ESM (neglecting the hax ofc) and I'm not super convinced about bagel's mojo in this tour
ratpacker vs Akaru Kokuyo 45/55
close match play wise, i would give Akaru/Schister a slight edge in the builder over Packer/Jello— gonna give this one to Akaru
Zee vs EternalSnowman 50/50
i think this one could genuinely go either way, but gonna give it to ESM off of his excellent performance last week & vibes.
 
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+ ---- + --------------------- + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon | Use | Usage % | Win % |
+ ---- + --------------------- + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1 | Ogerpon-Wellspring | 18 | 60.00% | 50.00% |
| 2 | Chien-Pao | 11 | 36.67% | 36.36% |
| 3 | Landorus | 10 | 33.33% | 40.00% |
| 4 | Roaring Moon | 10 | 33.33% | 70.00% |
| 5 | Incineroar | 8 | 26.67% | 62.50% |
| 6 | Gholdengo | 8 | 26.67% | 75.00% |
| 7 | Ogerpon-Hearthflame | 8 | 26.67% | 37.50% |
| 8 | Iron Hands | 7 | 23.33% | 57.14% |
| 9 | Tornadus | 6 | 20.00% | 50.00% |
| 10 | Okidogi | 6 | 20.00% | 50.00% |
| 11 | Raging Bolt | 5 | 16.67% | 60.00% |
| 12 | Gouging Fire | 5 | 16.67% | 60.00% |
| 13 | Kyurem | 5 | 16.67% | 60.00% |
| 14 | Glimmora | 4 | 13.33% | 75.00% |
| 15 | Dragonite | 4 | 13.33% | 50.00% |
| 16 | Ting-Lu | 4 | 13.33% | 50.00% |
| 17 | Indeedee-F | 3 | 10.00% | 33.33% |
| 18 | Iron Crown | 3 | 10.00% | 33.33% |
| 19 | Volcarona | 3 | 10.00% | 33.33% |
| 20 | Sinistcha | 3 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 21 | Amoonguss | 3 | 10.00% | 100.00% |
| 22 | Chi-Yu | 3 | 10.00% | 0.00% |
| 23 | Ursaluna-Bloodmoon | 3 | 10.00% | 33.33% |
| 24 | Farigiraf | 3 | 10.00% | 33.33% |
| 25 | Diancie | 3 | 10.00% | 33.33% |
| 26 | Ninetales-Alola | 2 | 6.67% | 50.00% |
| 27 | Rillaboom | 2 | 6.67% | 0.00% |
| 28 | Primarina | 2 | 6.67% | 50.00% |
| 29 | Latios | 2 | 6.67% | 100.00% |
| 30 | Torkoal | 2 | 6.67% | 50.00% |
| 31 | Kommo-o | 1 | 3.33% | 0.00% |
| 32 | Iron Boulder | 1 | 3.33% | 0.00% |
| 33 | Sinistcha-Masterpiece | 1 | 3.33% | 0.00% |
| 34 | Ursaluna | 1 | 3.33% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Bronzong | 1 | 3.33% | 0.00% |
| 36 | Volcanion | 1 | 3.33% | 0.00% |
| 37 | Smeargle | 1 | 3.33% | 0.00% |
| 38 | Grimmsnarl | 1 | 3.33% | 0.00% |
| 39 | Deoxys-Speed | 1 | 3.33% | 100.00% |
| 40 | Regidrago | 1 | 3.33% | 0.00% |
| 41 | Landorus-Therian | 1 | 3.33% | 0.00% |
| 42 | Mew | 1 | 3.33% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Moltres-Galar | 1 | 3.33% | 100.00% |
| 44 | Heatran | 1 | 3.33% | 0.00% |
| 45 | Sneasler | 1 | 3.33% | 0.00% |
| 46 | Orthworm | 1 | 3.33% | 100.00% |
| 47 | Tyranitar | 1 | 3.33% | 100.00% |
| 48 | Excadrill | 1 | 3.33% | 100.00% |
| 49 | Walking Wake | 1 | 3.33% | 0.00% |
| 50 | Lilligant-Hisui | 1 | 3.33% | 100.00% |
| 51 | Brute Bonnet | 1 | 3.33% | 100.00% |
| 52 | Iron Valiant | 1 | 3.33% | 0.00% |
| 53 | Magmar | 1 | 3.33% | 100.00% |
| 54 | Manaphy | 1 | 3.33% | 100.00% |

Going to try to keep the writing a little shorter this week. Some fun mentions though: U-Turn Volcorona, Breaking Swipes + Snarl Walking Wake, THE Iron Boulder, Turn 1 Icy Wind Chien Pao gambling, and 10 Ogerpons. So far Ogerpon has only not made an appearance on 4/30 teams! Chien Pao still struggling with 11 brings but a 36.36% win rate. Chi-yu is 0 for 3 right now on wins but none were shiny so thats probably why. Gholdengo is doing great with a 75% win record so far, while Tornadus is nowhere to be found with only 6 usage so far. I am enjoying the diversity though can't wait to see what people come up with this week!

[GIB] bagel vs Ann [FOX]
This one is pretty close. Ann got a little unlucky last week but played solid and was able to narrowly bring it back. I can't really fault her play she had a pretty solid game overall. The team was choice solid from the Foxes too. With that said I feel like I will get punished if I don't bet on bagel this week. They have been playing pretty well, not at their top level but are doing what they have to to win. Last week wasn't really the best game to get anything out of because of the turn 2 gambling but bagel did what they had to so there is that. Overall I think this will be a solid game where Ann may bring a slightly better team but I think bagel can win.. I wont lie this is like 51/49 though I have no idea. Whoever shows up that day wins. Definitely the highlight this week!

[PLA] Nails vs zee [TER]
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[DYN] EternalSnowman vs ratpacker [TMS]
ESM should have won last week but definitely tossed. He knows it and saw his mistakes though so I don't think he will make them again. The team choice was pretty good too from the Dynamos. I think if ESM can just fix the small mistakes then this slot has the potential to finish top end of the pool. The ratpacker finally got his first win with a very standard looking team. That game was pretty messy in general but I don't feel like he played bad. With that said the teams from ratpacker have not been too inspiring while ESM has been looking pretty strong with his brings. Unless ESM mismanages his mid/end game again I really feel like he wins here. Hoping to see ratpacker cook a little more in the builder though.

[BRE] MADARAAAA vs SEA [SHO]
SEA has been pretty unlucky in her games, but to be fair that's the game you're playing going all in on moves that can miss. I do think she is a solid player and has been grinding doubles, but until things start going her way I will have to bold against her. She is up against Madara who has been looking pretty out of form this season. I know he is 2-1 but we know what happened week 1. I think being alone is definitely hurting him a bit but he has the skill to overcome it. In these kind of tournaments its all about finding your footing and getting momentum. This could be the week to do that. This is very close though I could see this going either way, especially if eragon can get SEA another solid match up.

[SPA] Akaru Kokuyo vs Feyy [ISL]
I wont lie I have no idea lol. The Spartans basically burnt down the kitchen with how hard they cooked. The LAST move I expecting from that Volcarona was U-turn.. might be more surprising than the week 2 Roaring Moon U-turn. honestly though the team seemed a little odd, like I got what it was trying to do but it felt like it needed a lot going right to get it to work. Feyy on the other hand won in an intense game vs madara. I feel like both didn't play at their best though. I know Feyy is coming off a win but I just feel like I have to give it to Akaru here. I think the Spartans will dial back the building a bit and bring something more solid so that Akaru can play a more straight up game against Feyy who has been looking a lot weaker so far. Feyy does now have the first win buff though, so its possible this goes either way.
 
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Ann vs Bagel - 65/35
Despite her record I think Ann has played great all tour, facing what I would consider the other top slots in the pool and playing quite capably in every game. Her builder calls have been unique and I think it all combines to make her a very threatening player compared to a rather standard bagel season thusfat (for his standards)

Nails vs Zee - 50/50
Platoon shed some blood last week with a slightly odd build and some subtle gameplay choices to barely lose to Ann, but this alone is not reason enough for me to bold Zee here. Zee is 3-0 with Kunal support, consistently loading dangerous and effective teams into their opponents and I think they can continue to win the scout war against a face as familiar as Nails'. Still the early turns of Zee's game vs ESM showed they aren't infallible right now, leaving this matchup extremely close in my eyes.

Eternalsnowman vs ratpacker - 55/45
Two notorious builders coming off notable lows in otherwise won games early season, I rate esm's play ceiling higher than packer's. I think both players are pretty evenly matched in builder right now so I have to hand my faith to esm this time.

MADARAAAA vs sea - 60/40
Sea will get haxxed again. Otherwise I favor sea here
 
bagel vs Ann - 45/55
both haven’t super impressed me in play or in the builder yet, i would give this one to Ann off of play alone

Nails vs zee (45/55)
builder terrorism on both sides here. i wasn’t a huge fan of Nails’s load last week & I think zee/kunal’s prep & zee’s play have been working very well so far. highlight of the week for sure

EternalSnowman vs ratpacker (0/100)
streets are saying it’s time for a W from big packer.
real score 45/55

MADARAAAA vs SEA (49/51)
not a big fan of MADARAAAA’s loads, that game vs Feyy last week was an abomination on both sides. SEA & Era can win this in the builder provided they don’t load power whip and trigger MADARAAAA’s notorious luck stat

Akaru Kokuyo vs Feyy (60/40)
Feyy and Mike have been loading rly sus teams so far— hoping to see some masterful bronzong cheffing to win the day from them, but i don’t think Schister would let that happen in the builder.
 
week 5/x of posting because Hasayo did

1. :gyarados: zee - 89/100
Only 3-0 and has done so without facing any of the players (imo) that are looking the weakest. Been playing good pkmn with no "wtf are you doing" moments in a season full of them. 2/3 on strong teams and I expect the 1 to be an outlier.
2. :falinks: Nails - 81/100
Insanely dominant 2-0 start but fumbled when against a stronger opponent. Still looking like the best player after zee tho. Hasayo support looks like it's banging too as expected. Just needs to show he isn't only farming the bottom end which I'm sure he will.
3. :aegislash: Akaru Kokuyo - 74/100
Another player who started with a dominant 2-0. Last week's team was some bs — kinda what I expected from the Spartans core — but Akaru was looking great beforehand and didn't play that game too poorly either. I think he'll prolly continue on this sorta trajectory.
4. :gible: bagel - 66/100
Tbh bagel has just kinda looked serviceable, not great but certainly not bad. He shows up and then whatever happens happens. Arguably tho he didn't have to do too much more than that in either of his wins, and there wasn't much to be done in his loss. Curious to see where it goes.
5. :zapdos-galar: EternalSnowman - 61/100
Weird season for ESM so far. W1 decided in 2 turns by SEA missing, W2 he played well while Ann kinda fumbled it, and now W3 he kinda fumbled it while zee played well. Overall I think he's looked solid enough, just sorta falls in with bagel at "2-1 but idk what to make of it".
6. :mew: ratpacker - 55/100
Great debut game timeout aside, bit lackluster since then. Got his first win last week but I think it was littered with odd decisions. High potential to shoot up tho if that win helps him find some consistency. Playing peak is there and teams have been respectable outside of a couple move choices.
7. :kingambit: SEA/eragon - 38/100
Shoguns are the only core yet to pick up a win but they also haven't offended me. SEA had real odds in both of her games, so maybe there's something there. Iron Boulder is dog tho.
8. :melmetal: MADARAAAA - 20/100
Hasn't looked good in any of his games and seems to be struggling to come out on top of important turns. The builds haven't been very inspiring either. Certainly capable of more but isn't showing it.
9. :exeggutor-alola: Feyy - 19/200
Won last week but game got far closer than it should've, and was looking hopeless in the weeks prior. Arguably could be a spot above but I think Fey still has a lower chance of turning the season around. Technically has improved each week tho so that's a positive sign going forward.

SV DOU: :gible: bagel vs Ann :ninetales: - :blobtriumph:
I ate a bagel this morning

SV DOU: :falinks: Nails vs zee :gyarados: - 51/49
The Platoon had an interesting take on Screens last week opting to go light on support. Grimm surrounded by a bunch of hitters, just Wetpon for redirection. Favorable RNG early set Nails up nicely but then things started to slip away from him. Ann's Moon became a big threat without Grimm and a questionable use of Tera made it weird. He was likely trying to make sure Ann's Hands couldn't heal out of Drain range by targeting his own Hands, but I believe Tera on Chi-Yu would've won the game for him. The all in on Hands route may have worked too if he snuck in an extra SD on Turn 8 or 9, but he didn't. I wouldn't call it a disastrous game, just one that stings.

Zee's game was kinda the other side of the coin. They definitely tried to come in with an anti ESM team — wasn't something you'd see out of zee normally — and it didn't look too hot. I don't fully hate the ideas here as an ESM CT (I would NOT endorse it for normal use), but it seemed like zee was just caught off guard by all of ESM's sets. Still though they managed to claw back after the initial surprises, ultimately capitalizing on an ESM endgame choke.

I think that zee has been sharper so far against stronger opponents, and I'm not going to read too much into loading wack against ESM. That being said, my trust in Hasayo is unwavering and after last week I can't see a world where he doesn't make sure Nails is in better form going into his game. Gonna trust those two to bounce back quickly. I'm feeling like both players will be 3-1 after this one, but zee is probably the favorite and could easily remain undefeated. Very excited for this one.

SV DOU: :zapdos-galar: EternalSnowman vs ratpacker :mew: - 60/40
I've been liking ESM's brings these past two weeks a lot. Last week he really got the best of zee in the early game with the CB Rilla and AV Wake. Put himself in a great position to win the game, but after turn 8 it slowly fell apart for him. Trying to call a Protect on turn 9 lost him some ground as it became a 4v4, then a 3v3 after trading the next turn. Still poised to win the game with a Torkoal under TR he chooses to usd Protect instead of Eruption on turn 11. Tyranitar was in ranage of Tera HH Eruption already so Protect's only purpose could be to scout out a potential Tera Water/Fire Amoon. If it's Water maybe he can try to work in Rillaboom, if it's Fire he probably juat loses? Anyway, it was Dark and the Protect turn allowed zee to switch around and get Tyranitar back in to set Sand. This turned Torkoal's 1 to 2 kills into 0 and ultimately the game into a loss.

Ratpacker picked up his first win last week! Over the 2-0 Akaru no less. The game itself was a bit messy though. I think his positioning early on with Bolt/Incin was a little sloppy but still he definitely was getting the better of Akaru with his bulky pieces. What I have to find most perplexing was the endgame. Instead of bringing in Ghold to clean up turn 14 he brought in the no EP Lando-I. The Kommo did Tera Water already, but the earlier roll would imply it always kills from 20%. Then next turn you have Torn's Bleakwind if it Protects for Lefties and we aren't relying on raw Sandear+Bleakwind. At least the Indeedee paras meant even with misses he got the win as a Heal Pulse would've been devastating. Anyway, please do not drop Earth Power on Lando-I and ESPECIAILLY not without Rain.

As for the game itself, who knows what the hell team preview is gonna look like between these two. I have a feeling this'll be the week ratpacker really takes the gloves off in building. I'm liking what I see from ESM more though and he realized his errors quickly after the game, so I don't expect him to fumble another end game like that. Need something more convincing from ratpacker before I'm back to believing in him.

SV DOU: :melmetal: MADARAAAA vs SEA :kingambit: - 45/55
Madara has... not delivered. I am no stranger to making shit clicks in SCL, but that turn 7 Protect last week man. It's a click that I simply cannot justify. He was primed to win by just attacking there despite burning Tera T1 and letting Feyy get a +4 Gouging Fire next to a +2 Chien-Pao. There was still a chance in the end with TR vs Shadow Ball on turn 11, but he lost the 50/50. Another sad game, and I wasn't too big on the squad this time around either.

SEA has also beene having quite a sad season. Both of her games have been mostly decided early by missed moves, and she missed a week due to regionals. Last week though bagel was barely favored in their early game gambling session, and she probably could've avoided it. She definitely could've been expecting Sash Glimm over Meteor Beam though in which case her Lando-I would've been pretty safe. Regardless, I don't have much of anything to evaluate here. Team was fine, just dragged down by an Iron Boulder.

Weird one to call, am I just gonna friendship bias bold SEA? Based on what I've seen so far I probably favor her by a hair since Madara has looked Bad? However SEA hasn't really had to play beyond turn 2 yet thanks to inaccuracy and is still totally unproven on this stage. It's more or less a coinflip to me where I'm just gonna bet on the less proven quantity to beat the player who clearly isn't in good form. In the prep department I like Shoguns a bit better too.

SV DOU: :aegislash: Akaru Kokuyo vs Feyy :exeggutor-alola: - 65/35
Spartans finally overcooked in the builder last week. Akaru's first and last advantage of the game came from lead matchup. I am not entirely sure what he intended to cover by clicking Throat Chop + Cudgel into Incineroar with the obvious switchin being Wetpon, but it did not work. From there he really just struggled to put out enough damage against ratpacker's squad. Some trolling on ratpacker's end did provide him with a chance to rob away the game, but alas it was not meant to be. I think I would mostly chalk that one up to a prep L — not exactly a good sign when you're fighting standard genies — and it highlighted my initial concerns for the Spartans.

On the other end of this matchup, Feyy didn't lose in 2 turns last week! Instead he won! The bring wasn't revolutionary but I'd call it a step up from before. The play also wasn't revolutionary but it was a step up from before. I do want to take a moment to criticize turn 4 though. It's the last turn of Gouger's Encore. You are about to have a +4 Gouging Fire next to a +2 Chien-Pao. Both are at full HP going into this next turn. Madara has already exhausted his Tera. I really would have liked to see Pao Tect here. In the worst case scenario your Gouger gets doubled and should be left on a sliver, with Pao's Sash still fully in tact. From there I really think you're likely to get more value, or just outright win in the case of Madara going for the Pao slot as he did. Guess it didn't end up mastering though since Madara fucked up and then Feyy won the endgame 50/50.

If you couldn't tell I still have my doubts about Feyy.. and so I won't go against Akaru just because of one slip up. I think Spartans should definitely be able to go back to their winning ways here as long as we do not see another Tailwind U-turn Volcarona tier set. Overall their prep has still been much stronger than the Islanders. Fey is in fact on an upwards trajectory though so I'm curious to see if that continues here regardless of the result.

Looking forward to U-turn Tornadus this week! glhf everyone
 
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