Tournament Smogon Snake Draft 2018: NU Discussion

[etern]

Snake Draft Introduction
Snake Draft Phase One
Snake Draft Phase Two
Schedule for Stage 2

Hi everyone! Another season of Snake Draft is upon us. Use this thread to discuss the tour in general, players, metagame trends, replays, predictions etc. Have fun! I'll keep it updated as it goes on.

Potential NUers:

Goldenrod Gliders: lax, soulgazer, TDK
Shinto Ruin Serpents: elodin, tangelo
Berry Forest Bushmasters: shiloh, Nintendi
Lanakila Nagas: Kushalos
Lake of Rage Leviathans: eternally, Finchinator, garay oak
Sootopolis Sidewinders: FLCL, Stan Soojung, UltraBallz
Terminus Taipans: Rodriblutar, dodmen
Black City Mambas: Hootie, Malekith
Cianwood Cobras: Hantuski, stone_cold
Ambrette Astrotias: Realistic Waters, Tricking, Dundies

Phase One Matchups:

Matchups

Sun Division:
Kushalos vs. HANTSUKI
Kushalos vs. FLCL
HANTSUKI vs. Nintendi
Nintendi vs. lax
lax vs. FLCL

Moon Division:
Hootie vs. Realistic Waters
Hootie vs. Rodriblutar
Realistic Waters vs. elodin
elodin vs. Eternally
Eternally vs. Rodriblutar

Phase Two Matchups:

Matchups

Moon Division:
Hootie [MAMB] vs. Tangelo [SERP]
Hootie [MAMB] vs. Eternally [LEVI]
Realistic Waters [ASTR] vs. Eternally [LEVI]
Realistic Waters [ASTR] vs. Rodriblutar [TAIP]
Tangelo [SERP] vs. Rodriblutar [TAIP]

Sun Division:
Kushalos [NAGA] vs. Nintendi [BUSH]
Kushalos [NAGA] vs. lax [GLID]
Stone_Cold [COBR] vs. lax [GLID]
HANTSUKI [COBR] vs. FLCL [SIDE]
Nintendi [BUSH] vs. FLCL [SIDE]

Stage Two- Week 1 Matchups:

Matchups

Eternally [LEVI] vs. HANTSUKI [COBR]
Tangelo [SERP] vs. Kushalos [NAGA]
Nintendi [BUSH] vs. Realistic Waters [ASTR]

Stage Two- Week 2 Matchups:

Matchups

Eternally [LEVI] vs. rozes [BUSH]
Tangelo [SERP] vs. Stone_Cold [COBR]
Realistic Waters {ASTR] vs. Kushalos [NAGA]

Stage Two- Week 3 Matchups:

Matchups

[SERP] Tangelo vs. Eternally [LEVI]
[NAGA] Kushalos vs. rozes [BUSH]
[COBR] Jytcampbell vs. Realistic Waters [ASTR]

Stage Two- Week 4 Matchups:​

Matchups

[NAGA] Kushalos vs. Eternally [LEVI]
[ASTR] Realistic Waters vs. elodin [SERP]
[COBR] HANTSUKI vs. rozes [BUSH]

Stage Two- Week 5 Matchups:

Matchups

[LEVI] Eternally vs. Realistic Waters [ASTR]
[NAGA] Kushalos vs. HANTSUKI [COBR]
[SERP] elodin vs. Nintendi [BUSH]

Semifinals:

Matchups

[LEVI] Eternally vs. Kushalos [NAGA]

Finals:

Finals Matchup

[SERP] elodin vs. Kushalos [NAGA]

Replays:

Phase 1:
Kushalos [NAGA] vs. HANTSUKI [COBR]
Kushalos [NAGA]vs. FLCL [SIDE]
HANTSUKI [COBR] vs. Nintendi [BUSH]
Nintendi [BUSH] vs. lax [GLID]
lax [GLID] vs. FLCL [SIDE]
Hootie [MAMB] vs. Realistic Waters [ASTR]
Hootie [MAMB] vs. Rodriblutar [TAIP]
Realistic Waters [ASTR] vs. elodin [SERP]
elodin [SERP] vs. Eternally [LEVI]
Eternally [LEVI] vs. Rodriblutar [TAIP]

Phase 2:
Kushalos [NAGA] vs. Nintendi [BUSH]
Kushalos [NAGA] vs. lax [GLID]
Stone_Cold [COBR] vs. lax [GLID]
HANTSUKI [COBR] vs. FLCL [SIDE]
Nintendi [BUSH] vs. FLCL [SIDE]
Hootie [MAMB] vs. Tangelo [SERP]
Hootie [MAMB] vs. Eternally [LEVI]
Realistic Waters [ASTR] vs. Eternally [LEVI]
Realistic Waters [ASTR] vs. Rodriblutar [TAIP]
Tangelo [SERP] vs. Rodriblutar [TAIP]

Stage 2- Week 1:
Eternally [LEVI] vs. HANTSUKI [COBR]
Kushalos [NAGA] vs. Tangelo [SERP]
Realistic Waters [ASTR] vs. Nintendi [BUSH]

Stage 2- Week 2:
Eternally[LEVI] vs. rozes [BUSH]
Tangelo [SERP] vs. Stone_Cold [COBR]
Realistic Waters {ASTR] vs. Kushalos [NAGA]

Stage 3- Week 3:
Tangelo [SERP] vs. Eternally [LEVI]
Kushalos [NAGA] vs. rozes [BUSH]
Jytcampbell [NAGA] vs. Realistic Waters [ASTR]

Stage 3- Week 4:
Kushalos [NAGA] vs. Eternally [LEVI]
Elodin [SERP] vs. Realistic Waters [ASTR]
HANTSUKI [COBR] vs. rozes [BUSH]

Stage 3- Week 5:
Eternally [LEVI] vs. Realistic Waters [ASTR]
Kushalos [NAGA] vs. HANTSUKI [COBR]
Nintendi [BUSH] vs. Elodin [SERP]

Semifinals:
Eternally [LEVI] vs. Kushalos [NAGA]

Finals:
Elodin [SERP] vs. Kushalos [NAGA]

Power Rankings:

https://www.smogon.com/articles/snake2-power-rankings

Player Standings:

Eternally: 8-2
Kushalos: 7-4
Lax: 4-0
Realistic Waters: 5-4
Tangy: 3-2
Elodin: 3-2
Rodriblutar: 2-2
Hantsuki: 2-3
rozes: 2-4
Hootie: 1-3
FLCL: 1-3
Nintendi: 1-5
Jytcampbell: 0-1
stone_cold: 0-2

 

[Evan.]

lol youre starting in ru bitch

 

[Tangelo]

free eternally

 

[lax]

tbh, nu pool is looking really damn solid rn, probably contrary to what everyone else (myself included) expected. could be due to lack of awareness and underestimation but :shrug: anyways, not gonna comment on my own group cuz karma and i don't wanna reveal any thoughts

Sun: lax, Nintendi, Hantsuki, Kush/maybe ben gay, FLCL
Moon: Rodriblutar, elodin, Eternally, Hootie, Realistic Waters

these are the most likely options for both groups but they could change slightly i suppose.

predicted moon records with top being the best record:
1. rodriblutar - ever since spl rodri's really established himself as a high caliber nu player and i don't expect that to change here. one could argue that his past support is a huge reason for his success (FLCL for NUPL, ABR for SPL) but idt there will be too major of a change. pearl is highly praised as a manager and he also has dod who's been invested into nu for a while now and i can also attest to his vast metagame knowledge and great building. probably gonna keep it up
2. tie between eternally and realistic waters
eternally - he started off with a solid snake then kinda fell down in nu but idt any of this matters because as of rn, i definitely think eternally is the most invested into nu regarding metagame knowledge and motivation. he also has classic tryhard finch and garay helping so i expect him to do well
rw - i've always respected rw a bunch because of how creative he is and his raw building talent. people can argue that sometimes his teams are too wild but don't forget that he also has teddeh, one of the most consistent nu players in his wins and also his teams. really solid balance between the two that i think will work out very well. he's definitely the underdog pick here and i can't wait to see the wild stuff he brings
3. elodin - elodin might be the best mechanically based player here through his years of experience but his nu knowledge and reliance on others for building makes him less volatile compared to the other people in this group. however, he does have GOD TANGELO building for him and i'm always excited to see all the cool stuff tangy makes. elodin piloting + tangy building could burn and crash or it could give everyone a run for their money
4. hootie - hootie was very inactive for a long while but has been pretty active lately i believe. his record will entirely depend on the effort he puts in to playing but he has what it takes to defy everyones expectations

nothing negative to say about anyone, really. i think these groups are both really close to each other in terms of skill so these predictions could be completely off for all i know. let's have some cool games

:yoshirod:

 

[Finchinator]

I'm not doing actual ranks for the PR as I am for two other tiers, but I did do some personally and I will share them here (consider Eternally excluded as he is my teammate, btw).

Tier 1 (aka top tier)

FLCL and Rodriblutar

I think these two clearly are the top two in the NU field. FLCL is one of the all-time best NU players and he finds himself here for the millionth time, so we should expect more of the same positive results. I would not be surprised to see anywhere from 5-4 to 7-2 from FLCL. While his playing ceiling is on par with the best on the site, he does have tendency to lose himself within a game, leading to sloppy execution or even potentially throwing a game away outright. We did see some of this last Snake and throughout a number of individual tournaments, but if FLCL takes his time and utilized the calculator of pocket monster damage, then I reckon he will be in for another good run. FLCL's teambuilding is on par with the best in the field and better than most even if he does not prepare specifically a ton. He also is at least somewhat self-conscious, so it is not like he will be the easiest to prepare for either. Overall, FLCL should be favored vs anyone in this tier, but it will be hard to win them all just given how solid and deep this pool turned out to be.

On the other hand, Rodriblutar is a majestic, predominantly Spanish speaking beast of the modern day. While his grasp on the English language may be lacking, it is pretty clear that Rodri's comprehension is up-to-speed in the NU tier as he did well in SPL when given the chance and has also put up respectable results in a number of smaller, side tournaments. His level-of-play is believed to be very high for lower tier standards and his ability to pilot teams of various styles to victory is not to be questioned, in my opinion. While I would put him slightly below FLCL due to not being as smooth with the teambuilder, I think Rodri is about as good a player as FLCL. I do feel like FLCL has more upside in terms of flashy plays and positioning in the early stages of games, but Rodri is a machine when he's in form -- he rarely misplays and often does whatever he needs to come out on top in challenging match-ups. I kind of feel his gameplay approach is similar to that of Posho in OU and I have lots of respect for both as players, so it should be no surprise I regard him this highly.

Tier 2 (aka above average)

Elodin, Lax, and Kushalos

These guys are all capable of going positive, even beyond a mere 5-4, but it is likely that 1-2 of them will end up going around there or neutral anyway given the stiff nature of the competition. Elodin had a flashy SPL, proving that he can hang with the best and win consistently in the tier. This performance also carried out into NUPL, where he beat players like the aforementioned Rodriblutar, which is quite impressive, in my opinion. While Elodin has always struck me as more of a middle-of-the-pack type in OU environments, I think that with increasingly high levels of play and familiarity, Elodin is poised to break-out once more. He also has the assistance of Tangelo, which is likely going to be of vital importance seeing as his grasp on teambuilding is still developing.

Lax is someone I have always seen as a bit of a wild card, but his outplaying potential is sky-high and he has been in top-form dating back to SPL, so clearly there is going to be some hype around him being in NU here. I think that Lax is the most likely to widen the gap between those ranked below him by outplaying them consistently, but also I find that he may struggle to defeat top tier opponents if he does not get out ahead early as they may have better long-term gameplanning skills or simply more experience in those type of situations. Regardless, Lax is an underrated and effective teambuilder with high-highs as a player and an increasingly long list of achievements, so he surely belongs among the top half of players here.

Kushalos is also in this grouping of above average players (not necessarily last among them as I can see you arguing any order, especially after his 5-4 SPL campaign). The Fire Cook is a master of unpredictability, inside and out of the battle. The main question is if that will work in his favor or not. If he spins things to make sure that his niche sets and ballsy plays work out, then odds are we will be seeing a lot of winning from the Nagas in NU. Otherwise, expect it to be a long season here, especially if Kushalos makes one play too many and compromises ideal situations. All things considered, I think Kushalos will be very challenging for each and every player to prepare for and play, but some of the better players will be able to take him down, making his high-middle ranking pretty accurate.

Tier 3 (aka below average)

Nintendi, Hootie, Realistic Waters, and HANTSUKI

While the grouping is labeled below average, that still merely applies to this field, as rankings are all relative. I still think each of these players is skilled and respectable, for what it's worth. Nintendi makes a bang first off and his actually being in NU is a surprise to some despite his sign-up post that only listed NU. While the young Brazilian is inexperienced in the metagame, he has the tools to master any tier given his performance in tiers like ORAS OU throughout the past. The main question is how he will learn the insides-and-outs of the metagame sufficiently in time and how much dependence he will have upon the teams of Shiloh. If those teams click with him and he gets the tier as a whole, then expect big danger from the Brazilian boy. Otherwise, probably mediocre results to come in a fairly foreign environment.

Hootie still plays Pokemon? Thought that guy quit months ago lol

Realistic Waters is a "new" starter who has been around for "old" tournaments like SPL 7. He has been very sporadically active since then, showing consistent activity for months at a time and then going MIA all-of-a-sudden. Many believe that he is seriously back here and will use his creative teambuilding mindset combined with knowledge of his opponents to emerge victorious in a surprisingly large amount of games. However, I feel he will still struggle seeing as the NU field is better in terms of level-of-play now compared to when he was in his so-called prime. If Waters can make his teams advantageous for his opponents or take a few more high-level risks throughout the course of games, then expect more than this rank can possibly indicate, however.

HANTSUKI was on my NUPL team and was solid overall, but still kind of seemed to be taken aback by some of the more top notch, aggressive opponents at the time. If he can do as he did last Snake, going positive or neutral in a fairly novel tournament environment, then that will likely be sufficient for his team and their expectations. While HANTSUKI is not bad by any stretch of the imagination, he does not stand-out as an NU main and you have to wonder what he really knows. Thankfully, manager Snaga will come with many answers, mostly in the form of teams, and hopefully propel former Ruiners assistant manager HANTSUKI to victory.

 

[Yoshi]

So I'm not sure I qualify too much to talk about tournament players on this level, but I thought about these rankings carefully and I wanted to drop my top 10 here :). Also, please note that I think all of these players are really good and I don't mean anything harsh when I rate them lmao.

#1: FLCL
I don't think there's a single doubt in anyone's mind that FLCL is the best player in this year's NU pool. He may not have any activity on the NU forums + community (as far as I know), FLCL has definitely proven himself to be the NU champion. In last year's SSD, he went 5-4, and while that doesn't sound very impressive, it was actually the best NU record before the playoffs. While FLCL did not play in SPL, he did sit behind the wheel as one of the two managers of the Raiders, which ended up making the finals as well, although they did not snag a trophy. This of course proves FLCL's skill in not only NU but in Pokemon in general, which is always a nice touch. I'm not counting his NUPL showing since he did play in Bo3, meaning his SM appearance can't accurately be calculated, especially if he doesn't play it in some weeks. Overall, as proven by FLCL's incredible Snake, and his managing in SPL, he is the best player in the pool.

#2: Rodriblutar
Next on my list is Rodri, who, while did not have one of the top 3 best records in Smogon Snake Draft, going 4-4, is actually one of the top 3 previous SSD players in the pool now, due to meeps' absence, who scored himself the #2 spot. Why is Rodri much higher than Hootie? I'll get into that later. One thing I do want to mention though about Rodri is that I love his creativity. He brought Alolan Raichu + Miltank TWICE last Snake, and I believe he won at least once. This win was versus FLCL, in fact. Unlike FLCL, Rodri did play in SPL. After getting picked up at mids, Rodri scored a crisp 3-2, and while that doesn't sound too impressive, ended up scoring a win for his team in the finals, which eventually lead to a tiebreaker (spoiler alert: Rodri ended up getting a trophy ). In NUPL, Rodri also had an outstanding 8-3 record, which is nothing to laugh at by any means. That's pretty much it for Rodri, he's just incredible because of his creativity and his overall ability to play well (maybe even a little bit better than FLCL in some cases), putting Rodri at #2.

#3: Lax on STAX
This next entry should be no surprise, being the one and only Lax. Recently, he's had some incredible success outside of NU, doing very well in the recent edition of the Smogon Classic, as well as making the cut for the most recent Smogon Tour as well. While this doesn't 100% correlate to how well he is going to do in Snake this year, he obviously has some results in NU as well. Lax actually had a pretty mediocre record in Snake last year. He went 2-4. However, after watching a lot of these games, I can say for a fact that none of the games were a beat down on either side, and in one of the games, there was even a little bit of hax against Lax (bars) causing his loss. So therefore, I don't think he performed bad in Snake by any means. In SPL on the other hand, Lax had a much better record, going 5-3. In the most recent NUPL, he went an average 5-5, losing to the above Rodri in the finals. All in all, despite Lax's meh records for the most part, Lax is definitely a force to be reckoned with, proven by his recent success playing OU in tournaments, putting him at #3.

#4: Kushalos
Kushalos is a guy I don't know too much about personally, although I do have his records to judge. He's been a big name in NU since last year's SSD, so it's pretty cool seeing him play again this year, unlike Pohjis and snaga who are managing :sad:. Kushalos went 5-4 last SSD which is pretty decent, and one thing that stands out to me the most in these types of replays is his ability to build / pick solid teams. To be honest I'm not sure if he's the one building them, but they really stand out to me as being really good without being too standard. If he can build such teams again / use the same builder, I'm certain he will be successful this Smogon Snake Draft. Of course, he has some history in SPL, going 5-4 again, and I would say the same exact thing in that he has some really good teams in this tournament as well. Not much can be said about his viability in USM during NUPL however, as he mostly played ADV. However, for what it's worth, the one game he did play in SM he did win, which was versus Blunder. So, all in all, while he's not really a top 3 player, Kushalos is definitely one of my favorites, and I'm excited to see him play in this upcoming SSD.

#5: Eternally
Eternally is one of my favorite users on the site right now, and while he is one of the NUTLs, and a really solid player overall, I do think he will end up at the bottom of the upper half of the players in the pool this year. Last year's Snake Draft, he did fairly well, going 5-3. However, in this past SPL, he went 2-5 :sad:. This is really why I feel he shouldn't be higher on this list. What sets him apart from his fellow TL Hootie who had similar results? Eternally has had quite a ton of activity in these past few months, which makes me feel a lot better about guessing what his performance might be like. He also went 4-1 this past NUPL (not counting the Bo3 SM matches), which is fairly good. There's really not much else to say about Eternally, I like some of his teams, and I expect him to do pretty well this upcoming Snake draft, although if we were to judge based only on his past SPL performance, mediocre results would be expected.

#6: Elodin
Elodin is an interesting fellow from my past conversations with him, however I by no means doubt his skill. He had a really good Snake last year, going 5-2. He ended up beating snaga in the semifinals, although his team lost :sad:. In SPL, he played BW OU, which isn't too important here, but I'd imagine that he did decent (if he did, I would expect to see better, and I already expect him to do good). In NUPL, he also went 5-2. One fear I have for Elodin is his lack of experience over the other guys (having a few less games overall), as well as the fact that he generally uses standardish teams considering the current meta and such. This could just be a skewed observation on my part, but he doesn't have too much of a creativity factor, which is something that I like to look for. Overall though, Elodin is a very skilled player, and I expect him to do well. However, if he really wants to succeed, he may want to change up his build style a little bit.

#7: Realistic Waters
For someone who isn't deeply involved with the NU community, it's very hard to say how Realistic Waters will perform. He was one of the better players in ORAS NU, although that obviously doesn't directly transfer to how well he'll do in SM. He doesn't have any results in SSD, SPL, or NUPL, adding on to the difficulty of gauging his skill this generation. However, I can personally vouch for him myself, as I've played a few games with him, have talked to him, and have seen him play on the ladder numerous times. One of the things that stands out to me the most about him is his willingness to use a lot of different Pokemon, including ones that many people would consider to be unviable. He's recently peaked the NU ladder, and while people will say the ladder is trash, blah blah blah, it's really hard to peak the ladder in all honesty, and it's definitely something to make note of. So, while Realistic Waters hasn't been too active in 2018 until these past few months, there's definitely enough evidence that I've seen to say that he will perform well in this tournament, although perhaps not one of the best, due to his lack of experience in team tournaments this past year.

#8: Hootie
Ah, the Hooter. I really like Hootie, but from his past results, I don't think he's going to be doing too well this Snake draft. Last Snake, he actually did really well, being the #2 best player in Snake last year playing this year (second to FLCL), with a 5-4 record. However, his SPL was quite the contrary, which is what fears me the most, as its his most recent tournament. In SPL, the Hooter went 1-5, and was benched for a few weeks :sad:. After that he was decently active, then around now for the past few months, until about a week ago, Hootie was pretty much dead off the "Earth" (lol) from the community, although he did play in NUPL and did pretty solid. Therefore, there's really no guaranteed / fair way to measure his skill right now, so the best I can place him is around this spot. I'm really excited to see Hootie play, but I really can't expect much from him, even with his solid performance in NUPL, although I really do hope he does well .

#9: HANTSUKI
I like this dude, and I trust he's going to do at least decent. The issue I have with him though is his lack of "results" per sey (in NU), not in that he's done poorly, but rather he hasn't played enough in these types of tournaments to feel confident in putting him higher in these players who religiously play NU. Last year he did play in Snake, and he played UU. I'm not going to get his results for that mainly because I have to go through all the replays to do it, but I'd imagine he did decent. What makes HANTSUKI stand out the most to be though is that he has support from one of the better NU players, snaga. snaga had a good Snake last year, as well as playing in SPL (went 0-2 :sad:), but I trust that he's a good player as I've played him quite a few times. Therefore, I think HANTSUKI is going to do just fine with snaga's support, although I'm unsure if he's going to be doing better than the more invested NU players. OH ALSO HANTSUKI went 0-3 in USM NU in NUPL so that's not good, which is another reason why it's hard to say if he will do good.

#10: Nintendi
There is honestly not a lot to say about this guy, he's the ORAS OU goat but has 0 experience in NU from what we've seen as the public. It will be interesting to see how he performs, especially since he is by no means a bad player. However, the reason I put him at #10 over someone like tangy is because I feel like this could be like Zuku, who no one thought would play well because of his lack of NU experience, but ended up doing p solid. Therefore, Nintendi is at #10.

EDIT: THATS RIGHT, GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO SIDEWINDERS

 

[Eo Ut Mortus]

Hey lax, cool rankings. Just wanted to point out that since you ranked Eternally and Realistic Waters as tied for #2, elodin should actually be #4 instead of #3 on your rankings. Just wanted to bring that to attention for all the users who came to this thread solely to see how many times elodin was justifiably given his projected #4 ranking. I'm greatly anticipating some high quality NU games from the #4 ranked elodin and all other players ranked above and below him.

 

[banks]

Guess i'll chime in, first of all it was really cool to actually get bought for this, so thanks to sam and level for believing in me. I won't be doing full prs or predictions since i'm not the most qualified and i don't hold that strong of an opinion on anyone to do so.

Mega hype that tangy got picked up, especially alongside elodin who i'm presuming will be starting - tangy is prob one of the ppl i admire the most building wise, since he's so drastically different from me and basically anyone else out there, kinda just using whatever comes to his mind and somehow always making it work. As for Nintendi, i feel like he's gonna be a big dark horse of the season, he did make slam poffs last year and beat some really big names like flcl and blunder, and in tandem with rozes' alarmingly good ability to counter-team people, he could easily surpass everyone's exceptions, although most likely going to come down to how invested he becomes. Realistic Waters is also someone i imagine many people will be looking forward to including myself, i loved the stuff he used when he was in spl, much like tangy not caring too much about "trends", and being supported by a strong backbone in teddeh + tricking to give him the support he might appreciate. Sun division with flcl / lax / hantsuki / nintendi / kush (although i have heard that he might be lcing, although unsure as too how reliable that is and considering there's not a super strong alternative to him) is probably the strongest pool in my opinion, with flcl, lax and kush being in the top half of the overall pool, will be nice to see some intense games, and especially the teams as well, with all 3 having a sense if unpredictability to them. Lastly, eternally, hootie and rodri are in the moon division; eternally's builds are always super consist especially supported by finch, and having a good nupl i'm sure he'll be wanting to prove a point to many people this snake. Hootie will be really interesting for me to see his builds mainly, since he's always kinda been a more standard guy but from what i've seen, he seems 10x more motivated than what he was last spl, and has proved he can put up good results from last year's snake, whereas rodri has been a consistent player for a while now, expecting good things from him.

overall really excited to see the games in this tour, good luck to everyone playing !!!

 

[etern]

Power Rankings are up!

Visual PR

1. FLCL (Sun)
2. Rodriblutar (Moon)
3. Lax (Sun)
4. Elodin (Moon)
4. Kushalos (Sun)
6. Eternally (Moon)
7. Nintendi (Sun)
8. Hootie (Moon)
9. Realistic Waters (Moon)
10. Hantsuki (Sun)​

 

[Teddeh]

I'm gonna add a bit of discussion here and comment on a couple of the rankings:
FLCL + Rodri being top 2 is of no surprise to anyone. I think that if there is anything separating them, it's that FLCL somehow falls for average record in team tournaments where he's played NU. Notably i'm basing this off of spl 6+7 and a lot of time has passed, but i think it still stands. However his playing ceiling is through the roof and that's why he's ranked #1 with several individual tournament finals behind him. Rodri - fresh off an NUPL tiebreaker victory + SPL trophy, whilst winning in finals is on some next level form. I think that he will need to prove his consistency that he can play and graft a good record through all the stages rather than half a season like he did in SPL, but he also has an amazing ceiling.

Lax being 3rd is very fair and respectable, he's been very solid in what he's scored in terms of records, but needs to win the tough match ups vs FLCL + Kushalos - it will not be easy at all. He is certainly motivated to do amazingly in tours, basing that off of his wcop performance + BW cup in classic, he turned up massively. In comparison, snake should seem like a bit of a breeze.

Elodin + kush - Elodin has a great ceiling as a player and was an option i had in mind for my own team - however he needs the building support behind him. He can take a game off any of the players here in the list, but the building aspect will limit him. Kush has been naturally unlucky and in all honesty is due a great record as he has shown a lot of promise and has a great player ceiling, but gets the reputation of almost being a jack of all trades. Now that he's taken his main focus to NU, it will be an interesting season for him.

Eternally + Hootie (i know i've missed nintendi) - these guys struggled hard in SPL and will need to be out for blood in Snake. Format change + a considerably stronger playerpool than last snake draft, I can honestly say that i don't know if i will expect anything more than a positive record. Before SPL i was a big eternally fan, however his motivation battle and hax losses really set him back. Whereas Hootie + Evan didn't really fire at all during spl, however he says he has a lot more free time, it will show in this tournament.

Nintendi + rw + hantsuki - the newcomers. Nintendi being fed rozes' teams sounds terrifying for most people to face, because building and tier knowledge will be what sets him back. However he has an extremely high playing ceiling and i can see him pulling off a great record purely because of his ability to win pokemon games and know how to close out an end game. Hantuski however I haven't been really convinced. If i were to comment on their ability to play or how i think they will do in nu, i would be lying if i said i was knowledgeable. But they have been doing well in seasonals and they have been winning games, also the familiarity in team tours - he has more experience than a lot of guys on this list and he can sure use that in his prep / playing. Lastly RW - my own pick. I think that his rank is justified as he has a big question mark over his head. Given that I have a very large amount of confidence in this man, he will pull off a great record so long as he keeps playing his own way. I can safely say that from my own experience, there are few players that I would consider better than me at NU and RW is one of them. He knows what he's doing, he reads games so well and with my own support helping him, i have a lot of confidence in the man to pull off a strong record and show up when he needs to.

Overall I am super excited to see some innovation and how this tournament will play out.

 

[etern]

Phase 1 is officially underway! Here are the first batch of NU matchups!

Sun Division:

USUM NU:
Kushalos vs. HANTSUKI
Kushalos vs. FLCL
HANTSUKI vs. Nintendi
Nintendi vs. lax
lax vs. FLCL

Moon Division:

USUM NU:
Hootie vs. Realistic Waters
Hootie vs. Rodriblutar
Realistic Waters vs. elodin
elodin vs. Eternally
Eternally vs. Rodriblutar

Feel free to drop predictions, what do you expect from these games, how do their styles match up, etc. I'll regularly update this thread with replays and usage stats as they come in.

 

[Yoshi]

So for round one, it's honestly very hard to make any sort of prediction since you don't exactly know what kind of style people are going to be bringing for Snake, so I'd like to note that for this week it's going to be purely based on PR, as there's not much to base on. In the future however, once we have some matches, it'll be much easier to make predictions.

Kushalos vs. HANTSUKI
Kushalos vs. FLCL - alright so I lied, I know FLCL is higher than Kushalos but I honestly think Kushalos' amazing building skills as well as his ability to prep will prevail over FLCL, and he will win the match.
HANTSUKI vs. Nintendi
Nintendi vs. lax
lax vs. FLCL

Hootie vs. Realistic Waters - This one is mainly based on my own rankings because I know a lot more about rw than I do about Hootie, and rw's creativity I think will pull through here for him.
Hootie vs. Rodriblutar
Realistic Waters vs. elodin
elodin vs. Eternally
Eternally vs. Rodriblutar

 

[lax]

hey guys ULTRA meeps came back from his new life of sex, drugs, and mario tennis and wanted to share his thoughts on the upcoming edition of smogon snake draft NU

firstly, he told me to post his predictions of phase 1 that he thought of intensively

Sun division

he doesn’t actually care about sun

Moon Division

Realistic Waters vs. elodin
elodin vs. Eternally
the other matches aren't worth my time trying to predict

In SPL10, he actually created “crystal ball power rankings” that would determine SPL NU records. They are as follows:

LORD DEITY GOD EMPEROR MEEPS12/19/2017
this will be the rankings of nu records after spl is finished
teddeh kushalos ict zukushiku pohjis meeps eternally snaga hootie earth

These were actually very close to the final records:
teddeh / cb jose altuve / pohjis / lax + snaga / kushalos / zukushiku + shake / earth + rodri / ict / eternally / hootie

so he decided to create another set of
crystal ball rankings

CB Rankings

1. kushalos
2. flcl
3. elodin
4. lax
5. eternally
6. hantsuki
7. rodriblutar
8. nintendi
9. hootie
10. realistic waters (he will disappear midway through phase 1 or at the beginning of phase 2)

These are his actual power rankings

Self Made Rankings

flcl / elodin / lax / kushalos / rodri / waters / eternally / hantsuki / hootie / nintendi

ULTRA meeps thanks you for your time reading this

 

[Finchinator]

and we're off!

personal narration

Pretty interesting game to start NU off this Snake. Kushalos used a pretty much unheard of set on Passimian, being Bulk Up + Z Bug and ended up cleaning house with it after a back-and-forth start. Cool teams overall on both sides, too.

 

[Finchinator]

personal narration

Another game of NU occurred; both brought pretty standardized, but effective teams with Realistic Waters showing off a pretty potent addition to the metagame in Vikavolt. Hootie ultimately came out on top as his Passimian got some kills that Realistic Waters simply could not come back from during the mid-game after he got off to an initial good start.

 

[Finchinator]

personal narrations

Lax vs Nintendi happened yesterday; both brought rather interesting teams, but Lax ultimately came out on top. It was cool to see Pokemon like Sawk and Accelgor used successfully as you do not see either Pokemon much at all. Realistic Waters vs Elodin also just finished up an hour or two ago. Both used pretty standard structures, but Elodin showcased a very underrated threat in Alolan Exeggutor. Overall, both played fairly well, but Realistic Waters edged Elodin out to finish this initial phase 1-1.

 

[Finchinator]

Three more!

personal narrations

Nintendi vs HANTSUKI was a game where a stall team with six grounded Pokemon won pretty handily; nothing else should ever be said about this game. Thankfully, Rodriblutar vs Eternally was a breath of fresh air; both players handled the game pretty well aside from 1-2 questionable turns and it came down to the wire despite a bit of an awkward match-up. Finally, Kushalos vs HANTSUKI was another strong win from Kushalos, who has been showing himself off as one of the better players in the field with a strong 2-0 start with this win.

 

[etern]

Updated the OP with replays and player standings now that all our phase 1 matches are officially over. Also went ahead and generated the usage stats for this phase. Let's get some more discussion going before phase 2 goes up! What were your favourite games, what sticks out to you from these usage stats, what meta trends have you noticed, has anything surprised you?

USM NU: Phase 1

+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Passimian          |   13 |  65.00% |  46.15% |
| 2    | Xatu               |   11 |  55.00% |  36.36% |
| 3    | Slowbro            |   10 |  50.00% |  50.00% |
| 4    | Incineroar         |    9 |  45.00% |  55.56% |
| 5    | Steelix            |    8 |  40.00% |  37.50% |
| 6    | Silvally           |    5 |  25.00% |  60.00% |
| 7    | Torterra           |    4 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 7    | Comfey             |    4 |  20.00% |  25.00% |
| 9    | Golbat             |    3 |  15.00% | 100.00% |
| 9    | Vaporeon           |    3 |  15.00% |  66.67% |
| 9    | Diancie            |    3 |  15.00% |  66.67% |
| 9    | Heliolisk          |    3 |  15.00% |  66.67% |
| 9    | Accelgor           |    3 |  15.00% |  33.33% |
| 9    | Sneasel            |    3 |  15.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Hariyama           |    2 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Aerodactyl         |    2 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Vanilluxe          |    2 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Sceptile           |    2 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Decidueye          |    2 |  10.00% |  50.00% |
| 15   | Druddigon          |    2 |  10.00% |  50.00% |
| 15   | Piloswine          |    2 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Vikavolt           |    2 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Dhelmise           |    2 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 24   | Ferroseed          |    1 |   5.00% | 100.00% |
| 24   | Palossand          |    1 |   5.00% | 100.00% |
| 24   | Slowking           |    1 |   5.00% | 100.00% |
| 24   | Roselia            |    1 |   5.00% | 100.00% |
| 24   | Clefairy           |    1 |   5.00% | 100.00% |
| 24   | Houndoom           |    1 |   5.00% | 100.00% |
| 24   | Sandslash-Alola    |    1 |   5.00% | 100.00% |
| 24   | Sawk               |    1 |   5.00% | 100.00% |
| 24   | Audino             |    1 |   5.00% | 100.00% |
| 24   | Dusclops           |    1 |   5.00% | 100.00% |
| 24   | Blastoise          |    1 |   5.00% | 100.00% |
| 24   | Klinklang          |    1 |   5.00% |   0.00% |
| 24   | Mismagius          |    1 |   5.00% |   0.00% |
| 24   | Braviary           |    1 |   5.00% |   0.00% |
| 24   | Rhydon             |    1 |   5.00% |   0.00% |
| 24   | Guzzlord           |    1 |   5.00% |   0.00% |
| 24   | Weezing            |    1 |   5.00% |   0.00% |
| 24   | Samurott           |    1 |   5.00% |   0.00% |
| 24   | Exeggutor-Alola    |    1 |   5.00% |   0.00% |
| 24   | Rotom              |    1 |   5.00% |   0.00% |

 

[Yoshi]

So Eternally asked me to do my own commentary on the games, so I thought I'd do just that! If anyone has any tips for my commentary don't be afraid to tell me (or don't be afraid to tell me I suck). Thanks and enjoy !

 

[jcbc]

i count you saying so like x300000000 times boy Yoshizilla315 holyy

 

[etern]

Phase 2 Matchups are up. Let's have some good games and predictions in here!

Moon Division

Hootie [MAMB] vs. Tangelo [SERP]
Hootie [MAMB] vs. Eternally [LEVI]
Realistic Waters [ASTR] vs. Eternally [LEVI]
Realistic Waters [ASTR] vs. Rodriblutar [TAIP]
Tangelo [SERP] vs. Rodriblutar [TAIP]

Sun Division

Kushalos [NAGA] vs. Nintendi [BUSH]
Kushalos [NAGA] vs. lax [GLID]
Stone_Cold [COBR] vs. lax [GLID]
Stone_Cold [COBR] vs. FLCL [SIDE]
Nintendi [BUSH] vs. FLCL [SIDE]

 

[Finchinator]

Tangelo [SERP]


Stone_Cold [COBR]

 

[Finchinator]

three more!

personal narrations

Overall, really exciting games. Some surprises with Elodin and FLCL not getting off to ideal starts, especially now with the former being substituted out for Tangy. Stone_Cold also replaced HANTSUKI, interestingly enough. Overall, I am excited to see more close games, interesting team ideas, and Passimian!

 

[lax]

Moon Predicts with the numbers bullshit:

Hootie vs. Tangelo 60-40 - i think hootie's been into it more lately and has been playing pretty solid. tangy's debut in official tour is hype as FUCK and i can't wait to see the shit he pulls out considering he can just build for himself and whatever he likes because only tangy can pilot tangy teams. his lack of experience might show here which is why hootie has the edge imo
Hootie vs. Eternally 45-55 - in terms of team choice, they both use pretty solid, standard ish stuff. but in game, eternallys looked really solid in his past 2 games and, as i've mentioned before, is extremely motivated and ready to play. i think this game is a pretty close fight between the two TLs but i gotta edge eternally here because he's been pretty great
Realistic Waters vs. Eternally 40-60 - i love rw but what i've seen from him lately simply isn't what defines rw.. i strongly believe rw's strengths lie in his creativity and eye for underrated (potentially) astoudning pokemon but that hasn't really surfaced yet. on one hand it's great that teddeh keeps him in check with more normal builds and it shows through going 1-1. he definitely looked like he improved from his initial game vs hootie and pulled off a really nice win vs elodin utilizing the broken ass lizard. on the other hand, if he can bridge the gap between viability and innovation i think he has a solid chance at beating eternally but as of rn eternally looks more in form and well prepared
Realistic Waters vs. Rodriblutar 45-55 - to be honest, the team rodri brought vs hootie definitely made me question this mu a lot more than most people would. simply put- it was awful "but it worked". the xatu-less stall kind of worked, yeah, but i think hootie outplayed him more until the really end game where rodri pulled through due to what some may consider misplays from hootie. anyways rodri has been doing well in sm since sm started basically and rw recently is getting back into the groove of it so that is why i favor rodri more. rodri is known for outplaying and pulling himself out of tricky situations but if he brings something like his team vs hootie idk
Tangelo vs. Rodriblutar 60-40 - here's my bold prediction for this phase: tangy will fucking DESTROY rodri with some amazing tech and rodri will have no idea how to prepare for tangy and his builders won't know either so he'll bring something standard. fr tho, i think tangy matches up really well vs rodri because rodri kind of crumbles when faced with less standard, weird mons which tangy specializes in. will definitely be an interesting game and i think my highlight. gooo tangy

let's continue to have good matches, been enjoying them so far

might be playing kush in the next 24 hours and playing stone cold on the 10th at 8 pm est

 

[Yoshi]

Kushalos [NAGA] vs. Nintendi [BUSH] - As much as I've appreciated Nintendi's creativity in phase 1, I think Kushalos also had that as well as being able to effectively play defensively as well as offensively. I believe Kushalos will secure the win if he keeps things up, but he may need to play a bit more aggressively versus the likes of Nintendi, who comes from ORAS OU, which hasn't been the most defensive tier in the past couple of months. I believe Nintendi still has potential to win this game though, if he brings something to surprise Kushalos + can prep efficiently. If I had to pick though, I think Kushalos would take this game.

Kushalos [NAGA] vs. lax [GLID] - This is another hard MU to pick from, and is definitely the highlight of the phase. If I'm not mistaken, both players went 2-0 in phase one, so someone has to walk away with a not-so-perfect record. That being said, while it is hard to choose from, I believe Kushalos will be victorious here. While Lax uses less-than-standard teams for the most part, and knows how to keep the pressure on the opponent, I believe Kushalos can handle those two factors, seemingly having good prep and being able to play defensively as demonstrated in his game versus FLCL. However, if Lax is able to establish his wincons early on, and be sure to keep it healthy (which he seems to be successful at doing), then I definitely think that Lax can take this game, but I think Kushalos has the edge here.

Stone_Cold [COBR] vs. lax [GLID] - So this is one hard prediction for me to make generally because I know nothing about Stone_Cold or his experience in NU, but one thing I know for sure is is that Lax has a ton of experience in NU, and his ability to make not-so-standard but definitely solid teams should definitely prevail against someone who hasn't put as much time into NU as Lax. One thing that Lax does that should also be useful in this MU is that Lax knows how to create a solid game plan and he certainly knows how to execute it, so if he can do that here, then I definitely think he will come out on top.

Stone_Cold [COBR] vs. FLCL [SIDE] - So the same can be said as above, I really don't know too much about Stone_Cold to make any solid prediction, especially when he didn't play in phase one. However, FLCL is the NU veteran, and has so much experience I think it would overwhelm Stone_Cold quite a bit in prep, even though FLCL went 0-2 last phase. Really what I've been getting at these last two MUs is that experience is key, and that isn't just true in NU but in all tiers, and I think that means that FLCL will come on top in this MU, not just for that but also because he is incredible at prep. So, we'll see how this one goes when it comes around.

Nintendi [BUSH] vs. FLCL [SIDE] - Now I know I just jacked FLCL off in the paragraph above about how he is so experienced, and along comes someone who had no real tournament play in NU until this last phase. However, what Nintendi lacks in experience he certainly makes up at inventing the new meta, because last round he brought some insane tech, and if Kushalos can catch FLCL off guard with some tech then Nintendi certainly can. I think Nintendi is more avid in playing around defensive backbones + offense thanks to his experience in OU for so long, and while I'm not exactly sure about FLCL's entire repertoire, I'd imagine FLCL is much more used to play balance and bulky offense teams. Therefore in this situation, I do think Nintendi can come on top here, especially if he is up to the task of playing around FLCL's offensive play style.

Hootie [MAMB] vs. Tangelo [SERP] - Here's another guy that's really hard to determine whether or not they're going to do good. Like the aforementioned Stone_Cold, this would be Tangy's first phase this SSD. However, I actually do know a bit about Tangy to talk about what we might expect from him this SSD. For one, I know Tangy is great at coming up with some cool techs, and I think it will help him in this MU quite a bit, but I definitely think that Hootie will still come on top here thanks to his previous tournament experiences and has really just been on a good playing streak lately, even though he only went 1-1 in the last phase. However, I do think Tangy can definitely win this MU if he plays his cards right, combining his tech with good prep, I definitely think that it's winnable for him. Although, it is tough to gauge his ability to play, so we'll see how well he does in this MU especially, which in my opinion is the more winnable of the two for Tangy.

Hootie [MAMB] vs. Eternally [LEVI] - So this is obviously the match up of the century, the good TL vs the bad TL (I'll let you figure out which is which). Now one thing I definitely fear in this MU for Hootie is that he has been bringing some relatively standard teams. This of course scares me because it kind of makes prep for Eternally easy. Now, one thing that scares me on Eternally's part is that Hootie will pack the counters for Eternally's strategies. In all honesty, I think Eternally does use a lot of the same shit, I have one set on one mon in particular that I'm thinking of this past phase, and I think if Hootie can recognize those trends he can definitely prep well for Eternally, but I think Eternally has been playing better than Hootie so far which makes me think that Eternally will take the win in this match up.

Realistic Waters [ASTR] vs. Eternally [LEVI] - Alright so I'll keep it real here, I was very confident that Realistic Waters was going to perform well last phase but it appears that he's not doing too hot. Why? My theory is that he's bringing literally the most standard stuff in the world, and he's playing wayyy too defensively. I noticed that him vs Hootie was him playing in the back pretty much the whole game (for the most part) and it ended up losing him the game. If RW can get on his feet and bring some of that hot ass tech I know he has, then he has a shot at beating Eternally. He'll also have to play more aggressively, especially against the likes of Eternally who doesn't appear to be a fan of putting himself in the back as of right now, but we'll see how much that trend keeps up. Overall though, I think Eternally will take this thanks to his ability at preping for matches, also for being good at exploiting defensive strategies.

Realistic Waters [ASTR] vs. Rodriblutar [TAIP] - So I talked a little bit about my thoughts on Realistic Waters in the above match up, but to sum it up down here, he's bringing wayyy too much standard shit and he's playing defensively too much as well, which is something Rodriblutar is perfect at exploiting. Rodri is known for his stalls, and whenever he brings something different the teams seem to be really bad but they always seem to work. I hope the same logic can be applied here as well, as a lot of what I've seen from Rodri is his ability to play the anti-meta hero and just destroy anything that screams Slowbro + Passimian + Diancie and such. So overall, if Rodri can prep appropriately and continue to have that kind of play style, then he'll definitely win this match.

Tangelo [SERP] vs. Rodriblutar [TAIP] - Alright so I know Lax thinks Tangy is gonna smash Rodri, and I really do hope that is the case. However, I think it's important to consider that we're making this look like it's the battle of whoever can come up with the hottest new thing, and I think that's certainly a fair way to look at it but the way I see it is, if you disregard all that, Rodri actually has more experience than Tangy does, not just in tournaments but in NU in general. I think if Rodri can use his previous experience playing NU in tours against Tangy, as well as being able to prep for something that might not be the standard, then Rodri can definitely come out on top. Tangy definitely has a chance if he catches Rodri off guard, but I honestly find that very unlikely.

Hopefully that last one made sense, but I really like the MUs this phase, all the MUs could really go either way if all the players bring their A games, so I'm very excited to watch and commentate these games. Good luck everyone !

Edit: FLCL is 0-2 not 1-1, my bad!