Smogon Snake Draft III - Week 8

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Hikari

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Tournament Rules and General Guidelines


Matchups:


Berry Forest Bushmasters (6) vs (4) Rumble Hall Rattlers

OU: Vore Gidal vs teal6
OU: Eternally vs frisoeva
OU: xtra$hine vs @GaryTheGengar
OU: Amane Misa vs TPP
DOU: SMB vs Spurrific
UU: yeezyknows vs SoulWind
RU: z0mOG vs @reje
NU: blarghlfarghl vs Kushalos
PU: Taskr vs rozes
LC: Serene Grace vs London13


Terminus Taipans (4) vs (6) Sky Tower Lindworms

OU: Twixtry vs Lopunny Kicks
OU: ima vs -Tsunami-
OU: Ezrael vs xImRaptor
OU: Chaitanya vs Relous
DOU: ABR vs Stratos
UU: robjr vs HT
RU: Alpha Rabbit vs Ajna
NU: Snou vs trash
PU: Teddeh vs col49
LC: jake vs tko




Black City Mambas (4) vs (6) Lanakila Nagas


OU: xray vs ramboss
OU: Gilbert arenas vs Jimmy Turtwig
OU: PDC vs Tricking
OU: Empo vs Kory2600
DOU: Human vs Nails
UU: Christo vs Adaam
RU: Averardo vs Kink
NU: ict vs Ren-chon
PU: Sam I Yam vs Ktütverde
LC: LilyAC vs Osh



Lake of Rage Leviathans (7) vs (3) Shinto Ruin Serpents

OU: Welli0u vs soulgazer
OU: Corazan vs BKC
OU: Tace vs yoppie
OU: Insult vs Sacri'
DOU: emforbes vs Demantoid
UU: Charmflash vs Corckscrew
RU: roman vs DurzaOffTopic
NU: Garay oak vs 0NI
PU: Xiri vs Star
LC: Luthier vs BurntZebra


Ambrette Astrotias (7) vs (3) Celadon City Cobras

OU: Updated Kanto vs Jytcampbell
OU: Cdumas vs Eo Ut Mortus
OU: Tamahome vs FMG
OU: ZoroDark vs dice
DOU: Mint16 vs Tman
UU: AuraRayquaza vs Accelgor
RU: HarrisIsAwesome vs UltraBallz
NU: Jrdn vs Finchinator
PU: false vs Raiza
LC: Shrug vs Kingler12345

Deadline will be October 20th, 10:00 PM EST.
 
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good lord I fucking can't right now. RU stop subbing your players in and out how do you expect me to predict now LOL

oh well. I'll try my best. here we go!

z0m0g vs TDK: uh. TDK did pretty well the past two weeks. gonna give the edge to him, as z0m0g's sheet record doesn't impress me too terribly much. 35-65.

Alpha Rabbit vs Ajna: bolding the goat. week 7 game was dogshit and isn't telling of ajna's skill at all. 40-60

Averardo vs Kink: dude is 5-2 LOOOOL how does anyone expect me to bold against him? Ave is in tilt city rn and Kink would enjoy putting up another win to pad out the Nagas' scoreline and push them into playoffs territory for sure. smash this man, king ru 35-65

roman vs Durza Off Topic: the serpents are out, and roman would like to win here. durza isn't bad at all, but he doesn't have much to win for outside of his sheet record. 60-40

HarrisIsAwesome vs UltraBallz: after putting up a miserable 2-5 scoreline that sorely undersells his personal skill level, Feliburn bows his head and passes the Astrotias' barely flickering torch to Harris. I've got some faith in Harris to play this close or even win, but my gut tells me to go UB for this one after a solid performance week 7. nonetheless, it's do-or-die time for Harris and the Astrotias, so that'll give him some drive and that makes this my match of the week. 45-55.


(go harris! I believe in you! go astrotias :D)
 
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-Tsunami-

Banned deucer.
is the 2nd Smogon Classic Winneris a Past SPL and WCoP Champion
We start off our journey through the graveyard with the Bushmasters.



This team soared through the first two weeks, picking up two quick wins that put them in prome playoff positioning. The sky was the limit for new managers jac0b and 1TrueLycan...until they got washed by the Lindworms in Week 3. Losing to bad teams who are starting several donation slots like Indigo Plateau and tom holland is never a good sign, and this defeat proved to be a harbinger of the destruction that awaited this once-promising roster. They were absolutely annihilated the rest of the way, only managing to pick up a measley 3 points in the following 4 weeks, with some lopsided losses that cratered their BD. So, where did it all go wrong?

The team found itself in the very unfortunate position of #2 in the Snake Draft. With ABR being worth upwards of 20k over every other potential Round 1 pick, the second pick lost a lot of its luster. The Bushmasters decided to take the highest ranked player on their board, z0mOG. While his rank 2 billing seems a bit insane on the surface, given the lack of talent in the pool and the fact that z0m was ranked as high as 2nd in the SM OU Power Rankings by respected minds such as ABR, and the pick becomes logical. z0m currently sports a 4-3 record. He may be able to live up to his draft billing with a strong finish; perhaps he helped the Bushmasters in other ways as well.

What really killed this team was a complete dearth of standout performers. You simply are not going to do well in a tournament if you don't have a single player finish even 2 games above .500. Most of their picks did decently, but no one excelled. Even blargh finished positive. The incredibly suspect UU slot finished 3-4 between Amane Misa and yeezyknows as well. No one player really sinked the team; rather, it was a collective effort. The teams early selections in z0m, SMB, and Eternally were considered to be a solid foundation by most pundits. However, they currently sit with a middling 10-11 record. With no massive steals to speak of, this average performance was enough to doom them.

The true black marks on the team ended up being the secondary OU slots, along with RU. meeps struggled against a terrible player pool. While he certainly cannot be considered a "good" player based on his past performances, one would certainly have expected him to rack up wins against this dogshit group of clowns. xtrashine and HSA were always going to be a bit susect, but both had potential. Unfortunately, they both got curbstomped into oblivion LOOOL dudes ended with a 3-9 combined record. And to no one's surprise, when management tried to fix this by throwing in an Oceanian SM player, it only fueled the fire that was incinerating the team's core. It's 2019 people.

The Bushmasters were tied for 3rd in the Power Rankings, and management seemed to have assembled a well-rounded roster that traded star-power for a wealth conpetence. That strategy seems to have betrayed them, as their roster underperformed and no one individual shined brightly enough to save them from the depths of despair.

Next we move on to a pre-season favorite, the Serpents.



Excuse me for a second while I air out my thoughts on the Serpents in less formal language...

LMAO HOW TF DID THE BEST TEAM GET FUCKING SMASHED LOL HELLO THE DICKASS NAGAS HAVE 9 PTS VRO??? THE NAGAS LOL HELLO BRO OBI SNAKED AN ENTIRE CHAT, BECAME THE SNAKE VILLAIN, AND GOT STAR + THE GOAT + SG R10 SOMEHOW LOLO HELLO JIGGHGTUGDYRTFHJK

To say that I'm a bit mindblown is an understatement. I said many times that I thought the Serpents were without a doubt the best team the tour, and many others seemed to agree that they were a behemoth. Things never really looked right on the Serpents ship, as a Week 1 tie against the Lindworms appeared to signal that trouble was afoot. The Serpents had the #1 rated OU core and a threatening lower tier armads featuring Nat and SG. So, how the living fuck did they get absolutely demolished??? Let's find out.

Well, let's start with the highlight players. Star currently owns a 2-4 record, heavily underachieving relative to the hype that was surrounding him. To be fair, luck definitely wasn't on his side. If a few things went differently, he could have been 4-2. Given the disaster that was the player pool and his ability to support PU and LC, taking him Round 1 seemed like a no-brainer. Another seemingly good pick was the Goat, BKC, who slipped to the middle of Round 2 due to poor recent form and suspect SM OU skills. This seemed like a good value pick on the surface. However, unfortunately, BKC inherited Indigo Plateau-syndrome and looked like battered shell of his former self. Bro...HE WAS AWFUL LOL HELLO The play that immediately comes to mind was when he Z-Thundered a Kommo-O with Rotom-W on turn 1, for reasons that still remain unclear. Somehow, I was nervous about bolding BKC against some dogshit random named Kebab mlml...who actually BEAT BKC LOL With even luck, maybe he would have won 1 more game, but this terrible showing combined with Star's 2-4 performance and yjh's absolutely abysmal 1-4 record turned the #1 rated OU core into a laughingstock, sending the Serpents spiraling towards their demise. At least Sacri' is positive lol.

With the OU struggling, it was up to the lower tiers to save the team. They were NOT up to the task LOL To no one's surprise, Dickscrew struggled to a 1-3 record. The team had to turn to resident tryhard Durza, who managed to go 1-2. The UU slot was a trainwreck, and it's a bit surprising that they invested a 6th round pick in such an unproven commodity. Combined with their OU struggles, it was certainly a killer. Nat surprisingly struggled a bit this tour against a terrible player pool, and clearly was a bit tilted by the end of it. Rodriblutar barely played, but 0ni managed to, perhaps luckily, put forth a respectable record in his stead. SG predictably smashed the pitiful PU playerbase, and was easily one of the steals of the draft. LC was a decent slot, as hyped rookie BurntZebra had some ups and downs, and currently sits at 3-4. With Star's support, you would have expected a better showing, but 3 wins through 7 weeks is fine for a Round 7 pick.

The Serpents crashed and burned, suffocating under the weight of preseason expectations. Their lower tiers generally achieved the level of performance expected from them, but their vaunted OU core was a complete trainwreck. Not even lower tier God SG could save the team from being sucked into the abyss. On paper, this team was promising, and they definitely had the potential to win the trophy, especially under the elite management of obii and FLCL. However, expectations do not always match reality. A host of far-less talented squads remain in contention for the Green pixels, while one of the preseason favorites find themselves rotting in a ditch before the start of Week 8.

The last victim of Week 7 is the Jerk Team, otherwise known as the Rumblers.




The Rumblers prioritized perceived raw skill over specialities, drafting a horde of friends and tournament players instead of investing in a bunch of clown ass mainers. The Rumblers were the "RBY / DPP" of the Snake Draft. The variance was overflowing out of the team, much like how megalitness overflows from Takagi in Skilled Teaser Takagi-san. They had the potential to win, but they also had the potential to get absolutely obliterated, which is what ended up happening. The team as a whole struggled mightily to open the season, so the managers decided to pull off a Valentine-esque juggle that somehow allowed them to bodybag the Snake-leading Taipans. This quick fix only lasted a week, though, since they were eliminated a few weeks after.

The team found themselves in the coveted 10th spot of the draft, a position that seemed more and more juicy with each passing day. Managers bro fist and McMeghan had a dream start to the tournament, drafting fellow Jerk members TDK and SoulWind, two of the best players in recent memory. TDK's stock had fallen due to a run of abysmal proportions that saw him amass a paltry 5-15 record across his past 3 tournaments. Meanwhile, SoulWind's abrasive nature allowed him to fall to the Rumblers as well. These two behemoths combined for a middling 7-7 record, albeit one marred by a string of bad luck for SoulWind. If either of these two was not available, the managerial duo would have taken the aforementioned BKC...yeah LOL So, I suppose they dodged a bullet there. With their two headliners failing to put together trophy-winning performances, the team needed its other high variance slots to come through.

Gondra surprisingly looked like a dogshit clown this tournament LOL He caught the Indigo Plateau-syndrome too, I guess. He finished 0-4 in the worst performance of his Smogon career. He also dealt the gut punch to the Rumblers' playoff hopes, by playing like a headless chicken and basically eliminating them from contention. Another headless chicken was GaryTheGengar. The Rumblers claimed to have solved PU for weeks on end, only for Gary to get obliterated week after week by aids sack losers like false. The team also started august for the first two weeks...who they drafted in Round 6....for SM OU LOL HELLO WHAT ARE WE DOING PEOPLE? AUGUST R6? LOL THERE'S NO DPP WTF To no one's surprise, that plan went awry quite fast. Gary, august, and Gondra's struggles forced the aforementioned juggle. While frisoeva managed to accrue a 3-1 record, TPP and London were unsurprisingly disasters for the team, combining for 1 win in 9 games. TPP did have his share of misfortune, to be fair.

With all of the aforementioned disasters, it's a wonder that this team wasn't eliminated earlier. However, they did have some solid performances. Kushalos put together a solid 5-2 campaign after miraculously slipping to the 5th round, a seemingly unexplainable occurence considering that the whole world labeled him as a steal right after the draft.
Unlikely heroes teal6, rozes, and Spurrific combined for an insane 15-5 record that kept the team afloat. teal was particularly impressive, managing to take down titans like ABR and Empo in OU after blasting the top two ranked LC players. Tony helped the team tread water as well with a decent 3-3 showing.

Overall, it's easy to use hindsight and say that this draft was poor. However, the skill ceiling of this team was high, and several of their players balled out. The only real indefensible decision was taking august in Round 6, but that's what the Jerk mentality does. This team without question had the talent to win it all, but when they threw out their Dynamic Punches, far too many of their opponents did not hit themselves in confusion.

Now, LET'S MOVE ON TO THE UNBIASED PREDICTIONS

Berry Forest Bushmasters (1) vs (5) Rumble Hall Rattlers

OU: Vore Gidal vs teal6 | teals been on fire and he's playing an Oceanian new gen player in 2019
OU: Eternally vs frisoeva | memes
OU: xtra$hine vs TonyFlygon | xtra has struggled a bit and Tony's better
OU: Amane Misa vs Gondra | LOL bro Gondra has looked SO BAD LOL jesus this mans beyond awful right now...DID YOU GUYS SEE HIM LOSE TO TKO LOL WTF HE PLAYED SO BAD and he's against some meme UU clown. no thanks
DOU: SMB vs Spurrific
UU: yeezyknows vs SoulWind | yeezy may have potential, but SW is a monster
RU: z0mOG vs TDK | LOL I have no idea.
NU: blarghlfarghl vs Kushalos | ... LMFAO blargh in NU LOL I would have actually bolded him against some meme, but the chef is a threat and a half
PU: Taskr vs rozes | rozes has ascended back to his like first NUPL form. BKC's been awful this tour, so the BKC of PU will probably follow suit.
LC: Serene Grace vs London13 | People said this guy should be starting so. And London is probably unviable.

BY SOME MIRACLE...THE LINDWORMS ARE STILL ALIVE LOOL sorry being unable to play was probably a blessing in disguise LMAO He lost that to Gondra for sure. man would have clicked 10 moves a second and sacked his whole team to Mawile LOOL Can my amazing team survive once more?

Terminus Taipans (4) vs (5) Sky Tower Lindworms

OU: Twixtry vs Lopunny Kicks | Spreadsheet warrior Lopunny Kicks has bee a beast this tour. Never really impressed with Twixtry.
OU: ima vs imsosorrylol | ima has turned it on this tour and like...did you guys watch SPL? we boldin sorry? LOL?
OU: kaori vs xImRaptor | Raptor's been a pleasant surprise, and all I know about kaori in non-Doubles is that he went for some retarded amount in RoAPL GSC and got smashed or some shit. Let's be real...what fucking Doubles player has ever been good at OU?
OU: Chaitanya vs Relous | Chait been benched for a while and Relous has been a monster
DOU: ABR vs Stratos
UU: robjr vs HT | LOOL dumbass HT FINALLY lost again last week holy fuck. turns out all it takes is playing a viable player instead of some clown ass retard like Shrug in PU LOL enter robjr.
RU: Alpha Rabbit vs Ajna | Ajna has uncharacteristically struggled, but I'm definitely not bolding some mediocre mainer against him
NU: Snou vs trash | LMFHJGFFKJHUL LOOOOL IS IT CHRISTMAS? IT'S ONLY OCTOBER LMAO SNOW IS BACK LOOOL HE'S SO FUCKING BAD bro in nupl, durza kept tryna convince me Snow wasnt a meme...and then he choked on balls in the semifinals and knocked durza's goons out of the tour LOOL NO SHIT HE'S TERRIBLE HE CHOKES EVERY IMPORTANT GAME EVER he also was ignorant enough to write, " talk 2 me b4 you buy me" in his signup post a few tours ago...and then didn't get bought LMAO you can't make this up. BIG edge.
PU: Teddeh vs tom holland | tom holland found his first acorn two weeks ago. God knows this clown ass player is finding another one before the season is over. Teddeh is mega fire. Massive edge.
LC: jake vs tko | Zebraiken looks better than he did back in SPL 4 when he was in the nu trifecta with FLCL and Annoyer idk how he keeps winning LOL tko has looked pretty lost in LC. Big edge.

The Nagas are the surprise team of Snake. Can they keep it up against a Mambas team hungry to keep their season alive?
Black City Mambas (4) vs (3) Lanakila Nagas

OU: xray vs ramboss | Not a ramboss fan bop xray at least has some more proven skills
OU: Gilbert arenas vs Jimmy Turtwig | ....LOL yeah I'm not predicting this. Maybe if you guys played ADV
OU: PDC vs Tricking | PDC looks like the player whose retainer Nails traded 9k for in SPL 7 LOL His luck has finally run out, though. Clicking is unstoppable this tour, and is about to collect an OLT trophy too.
OU: Empo vs Kory2600 | Empo is overrated, but I never thought Kory was ever that impressive.
DOU: Human vs Nails
UU: Christo vs Adaam | Adaam won slam and has done pretty solid, but I'm gonna trust the best UUer for another week.
RU: Averardo vs Kink | Kink is sacrificing the same animals as HT LOOL WHAT HOW THE FUCK IS KINGUU 5-2 LMAO NA I have to bold him too since he's playing a clown. Ridiculous.
NU: ict vs Ren-chon | ict's good and ren-chon may or may not be unviable.
PU: Sam I Yam vs Ktütverde no comment. like really.
LC: LilyAC vs Osh | Lily has done well enough, but Osh is on a tear.

Lake of Rage Leviathans (4) vs (2) Shinto Ruin Serpents

OU: Welli0u vs Jardem | Don't trust the Well in OU, but like..Jardem? really?
OU: Corazan vs BKC | ...LOOOL I can't bold BKC LMAO fuck he's been so bad man after he lost to kebab mlml LOL I'm definitely not bolding Corazan either. This guy cannot win without lucking. No predict.
OU: Tace vs yoppie | Tace is slightly more proven
OU: Insult vs Sacri' | Both have done relatively well. I think Sacri is a bit better.
DOU: emforbes vs Demantoid
UU: Charmflash vs Corckscrew | LOOL DICKSCREW IS BACK LOOL Charm has bee pretty good, and much like tom Holland, Dickscrew has already found his one acorn
RU: roman vs DurzaOffTopic | ... LOL unbelievable no evidence either of these players is viable. Durza has had some nice moments, but also has struggled a bit in his first real tour. roman miraculously bear Ajna, but there's a reason he wasn't bought as a starter. Coinflip.
NU: Garay oak vs 0NI | Not ready to believe in 0ni yet. I.think Garay can turn it around.
PU: Xiri vs Star | Xiri may or may not be a meme and Star's really good. He also won PU Open lol. Big edge.
LC: Luthier vs BurntZebra | Both have had ups and downs. No read.

Ambrette Astrotias (3) vs (6) Celadon City Cobras

OU: Updated Kanto vs Jytcampbell | not a Jyt fan, and Kanto's been good.
OU: Cdumas vs Eo Ut Mortus | This one's really close, and going against the SHEET GOD is scary, but I think Eo has been a bit better lately.
OU: Tamahome vs FMG | FMG has promise, but I like Tama more as a player in general
OU: ZoroDark vs dice | ZoroClick is above average, but dice is a better player.
DOU: Mint16 vs Tman
UU: Lycans vs Accelgor | Lycans has struggled a bit this tour, but I'm not ready to trust Accel yet.
RU: Feliburn vs UltraBallz | have you guys watched Feliburn's games? LOL bro he NEVER WINS my lord IT'S BEEN 2 TOURS LOL UB is way better as a player.
NU: Jrdn vs Finchinator | Finch is way more provem and is definitely a better player
PU: false vs Raiza | You know the drill vros. Bold false's opponent every week because he's fucking garbage LOL He even said last week he shouldn't be playing.
LC: Shrug vs Kingler12345 | The loaf has been a complete meme, but at least his most noteworthy accomplishment didn't come as a ghosting slot.
 
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Valentine

at last, we meet
is a Tutor Alumnusis a Contributor Alumnusis a defending Smogon Snake Draft Championis a defending World Cup of Pokemon Champion
charmflash is the best player to ever do it.

charm is the best.
what I appreciate about him the most is:

- His Leech Seed usage
- His love for anime rap music videos
- His Ditto usage
- Leads by example

as we move closer to playoffs I have faith in the LEVIATHANS and especially charm :blobnom:
 
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