Tournament Smogon Snake Draft IV: NU Discussion

Expulso · Aug 23, 2020

Hello and welcome to the fourth edition of the Smogon Snake Draft - and with it, the NU Discussion thread. Use this thread to discuss interesting matchups, the metagame's evolution throughout the weeks, and any other trends or observations about NU as seen in SSD. This thread will be updated throughout the tour with each player's record, as well as replays from each week.

Potential NUers:
Terminus Taipans: lax, bugzinator, Roseybear
Ambrette Astrotias: GW, Finchinator
Shinto Ruin Serpents: Jrdn
Lake of Rage Leviathans: Kushalos, Skipkan, the pharoah
Black City Mambas: Bobby Dagen, Gefärlicher Random, Ho3nConfirm3d
Lanakila Nagas: Ren-Chon, elodin
Celadon City Cobras: Sjneider, snaga
Sky Tower Lindworms: Realistic Waters, Garay oak, Moutemoute
Terminus Taipans: aim, Expulso
Berry Forest Bushmasters: Sensei Axew, frisoeva, CyberOdin

Week 1:
[RAT] bugzinator vs CyberOdin [BUS]
[AST] GW vs aim [TAI]
[SER] Jrdn vs Realistic Waters [LIN]
[LEV] Skipkan vs Sjneider [COB]
[MAM] Ho3nConfirm3d vs elodin [NAG]

Week 2:
[TAI] aim vs bugzinator [RAT]
[BUS] CyberOdin vs Realistic Waters [LIN]
[AST] GW vs Sjneider [COB]
[SER] Jrdn vs Ren-chon [NAG]
[LEV] Kushalos vs Ho3nConfirm3d [MAM]

Week 3:
[RAT] bugzinator vs Realistic Waters [LIN]
[TAI] aim vs Sjneider [COB]
[BUS] CyberOdin vs elodin [NAG]
[AST] GW vs Ho3nConfirm3d [MAM]
[SER] Jrdn vs Kushalos [LEV]

Week 4:
[LIN] Realistic Waters vs elodin [NAG]
[COB] Sjneider vs bugzinator [RAT]
[AST] GW vs Jrdn [SER]
[LEV] Kushalos vs CyberOdin [BUS]
[MAM] Ho3nConfirm3d vs aim [TAI]

Week 5:
[LIN] Realistic Waters vs elodin [NAG]
[COB] Sjneider vs bugzinator [RAT]
[AST] GW vs Jrdn [SER]
[LEV] Kushalos vs CyberOdin [BUS]
[MAM] Ho3nConfirm3d vs aim [TAI]

Week 6:
[RAT] bugzinator vs Ho3nConfirm3d [MAM]
[SER] Jrdn vs Sjneider [COB]
[AST] GW vs Realistic Waters [LIN]
[LEV] Kushalos vs elodin [NAG]
[BUS] CyberOdin vs aim [TAI]

Week 7:
[RAT] bugzinator vs Kushalos [LEV]
[MAM] Ho3nConfirm3d vs Jrdn [SER]
[NAG] elodin vs GW [AST]
[COB] Sjneider vs CyberOdin:cross: [BUS]
[LIN] Realistic Waters vs aim [TAI]

Week 8:
[LIN] Poek vs Sjneider [COB]
[AST] GW vs Kushalos [LEV]
[RAT] bugzinator vs Jrdn [SER]
[NAG] elodin vs aim [TAI]
[MAM] KingKdot vs Sensei Axew [BUS]

Week 9:
[RAT] bugzinator vs Bouff [AST]
[SER] Jrdn vs Sensei Axew [BUS]
[LEV] Kushalos vs aim [TAI]
[NAG] elodin vs Sjneider [COB]
[MAM] KingKdot vs Jytcampbell [LIN] - deadgame

Semifinals:
[LIN] Realistic Waters vs Ren-chon [NAG]
[RAT] bugzinator vs Sjneider [COB]

1. Sjneider - 1.222

2. Kushalos - 2.556

3. Realistic Waters - 3.889
4. aim - 4.667
5. Jrdn - 5.000

6. Bobby Dagen - 5.667
7. Elodin - 5.889
8. Bugzinator - 6.000
9. GW - 6.333

10. CyberOdin - 8.778

bugzinator (8-2)

aim (7-2)

Kushalos (6-2)
Sjneider (6-4)

Realistic Waters (5-3)

Jrdn (4-5)

Elodin (2-6)
Ho3nConfirm3d (2-5)

KingKdot (1-0)
soulgazer (1-0)
Ren-chon (1-1)
Sensei Axew (1-1)
CyberOdin (1-5)
GW (1-7)

Bouff (0-1)
Poek (0-1)
Skipkan (0-1)

Expulso · Aug 23, 2020

Post Drampa Cumulative Usage (Weeks 3-9, Semifinals)

Code:

+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Silvally           |   39 |  54.17% |  41.03% |
| 2    | Mudsdale           |   34 |  47.22% |  50.00% |
| 3    | Ninjask            |   24 |  33.33% |  41.67% |
| 4    | Cramorant          |   19 |  26.39% |  57.89% |
| 4    | Rapidash           |   19 |  26.39% |  52.63% |
| 6    | Whimsicott         |   17 |  23.61% |  58.82% |
| 7    | Rotom              |   16 |  22.22% |  68.75% |
| 7    | Miltank            |   16 |  22.22% |  50.00% |
| 9    | Duraludon          |   15 |  20.83% |  73.33% |
| 9    | Stunfisk-Galar     |   15 |  20.83% |  53.33% |
| 11   | Weezing            |   14 |  19.44% |  42.86% |
| 12   | Gallade            |   13 |  18.06% |  61.54% |
| 12   | Jellicent          |   13 |  18.06% |  38.46% |
| 12   | Sandslash-Alola    |   13 |  18.06% |  23.08% |
| 15   | Persian-Alola      |   12 |  16.67% |  50.00% |
| 16   | Ribombee           |   10 |  13.89% |  80.00% |
| 16   | Clefairy           |   10 |  13.89% |  40.00% |
| 18   | Wishiwashi         |    9 |  12.50% |  55.56% |
| 19   | Clawitzer          |    8 |  11.11% |  62.50% |
| 19   | Escavalier         |    8 |  11.11% |  37.50% |
| 21   | Vanilluxe          |    7 |   9.72% |  57.14% |
| 21   | Thievul            |    7 |   9.72% |  28.57% |
| 23   | Ninetales          |    6 |   8.33% |  33.33% |
| 23   | Cofagrigus         |    6 |   8.33% |  33.33% |
| 23   | Poliwrath          |    6 |   8.33% |  16.67% |
| 26   | Ferroseed          |    5 |   6.94% |  80.00% |
| 26   | Rhydon             |    5 |   6.94% |  60.00% |
| 26   | Piloswine          |    5 |   6.94% |  20.00% |
| 29   | Garbodor           |    4 |   5.56% |  75.00% |
| 29   | Trevenant          |    4 |   5.56% |  50.00% |
| 29   | Rotom-Frost        |    4 |   5.56% |  25.00% |
| 32   | Gastrodon          |    3 |   4.17% |  33.33% |
| 32   | Rotom-Fan          |    3 |   4.17% |  33.33% |
| 34   | Kangaskhan         |    2 |   2.78% | 100.00% |
| 34   | Mawile             |    2 |   2.78% | 100.00% |
| -    | Gourgeist-*        |    2 |   2.78% | 100.00% |
| 34   | Gourgeist-Small    |    2 |   2.78% | 100.00% |
| 34   | Roselia            |    2 |   2.78% | 100.00% |
| 34   | Froslass           |    2 |   2.78% |  50.00% |
| 34   | Togedemaru         |    2 |   2.78% |  50.00% |
| 34   | Cinccino           |    2 |   2.78% |  50.00% |
| 34   | Magneton           |    2 |   2.78% |  50.00% |
| 34   | Accelgor           |    2 |   2.78% |  50.00% |
| 34   | Gurdurr            |    2 |   2.78% |  50.00% |
| 34   | Sneasel            |    2 |   2.78% |  50.00% |
| 34   | Appletun           |    2 |   2.78% |  50.00% |
| 34   | Sableye            |    2 |   2.78% |  50.00% |
| 47   | Decidueye          |    1 |   1.39% | 100.00% |
| 47   | Leafeon            |    1 |   1.39% | 100.00% |
| 47   | Skuntank           |    1 |   1.39% | 100.00% |
| 47   | Qwilfish           |    1 |   1.39% | 100.00% |
| 47   | Throh              |    1 |   1.39% | 100.00% |
| 47   | Lanturn            |    1 |   1.39% | 100.00% |
| 47   | Jolteon            |    1 |   1.39% | 100.00% |
| 47   | Thwackey           |    1 |   1.39% |   0.00% |
| 47   | Rapidash-Galar     |    1 |   1.39% |   0.00% |
| 47   | Exeggutor          |    1 |   1.39% |   0.00% |
| 47   | Mr. Mime-Galar     |    1 |   1.39% |   0.00% |
| 47   | Aromatisse         |    1 |   1.39% |   0.00% |
| 47   | Sawk               |    1 |   1.39% |   0.00% |
| 47   | Kingler            |    1 |   1.39% |   0.00% |
| 47   | Alcremie           |    1 |   1.39% |   0.00% |
| 47   | Klinklang          |    1 |   1.39% |   0.00% |
| 47   | Heatmor            |    1 |   1.39% |   0.00% |

Silvally breakdown:
- Steel: 13 (elodin, CyberOdin 2x, bugzinator, jrdn 2x, ho3n, kushalos 2x, Sjneider x2, bouff, kushalos) - 5-8

- Dragon: 7 (Jrdn, aim 2x, elodin, kush, rw, ho3n) - 2-5

- Ghost: 6 (aim x2, bugzi, neider, ho3n, elodin) - 1-5

- Poison: 4 (jrdn, bugzi, aim, rw) - 2-2
- Dark: 3 (neider, rw, gw) - 1-2

- Normal: 2 (Sjneider, Kushalos) - 2-0
- Water: 2 (elodin, bugzinator) - 1-1

- Grass: 1 (bugzinator) 1-0
- unrevealed: 1 (soulgazer) - 1-0

Abejas · Aug 23, 2020

#GWParty2020

Luck O' the Irish · Aug 23, 2020

FREE DAVON

GW · Aug 23, 2020

Ho3N IN SNAKE CONFIRMED omg omg omg omg HO3N IN SNAKE CONFIRMED

Kiyo · Aug 23, 2020

This pool is very cool and I am excited to follow the action this season. Very excited to see the Gefarlicher and Ho3n combo, both creative builders and precise players. Good luck to everyone, I'm sure you will all kick ass.

Also, GW, you suck. But I like your spunk.

Expulso · Aug 30, 2020

Power Rankings and Week 1 are up!

Power Rankings:
1. Sjneider - 1.222

2. Kushalos - 2.556

3. Realistic Waters - 3.889
4. aim - 4.667
5. Jrdn - 5.000

6. Bobby Dagen - 5.667
7. Elodin - 5.889
8. Bugzinator - 6.000
9. GW - 6.333

10. CyberOdin - 8.778

You can see some clear tiers emerging from these PRs - Sjneider and Kushalos are clearly judged to be ahead of the pack, with Sjneider the overwhelming favorite. Realistic Waters, Aim, and Jrdn are very close and expected to finish above average in some order; Bobby Dagen, Elodin, Bugzinator, and GW are all also very close and the raters anticipate that they'll have to fight hard to break even. CyberOdin is rated much lower.

What do you think about these ratings? Who is too high and who is too low?

I personally expect both Bugzinator and Bobby Dagen to do better than their rankings, since both have really impressed me with their play in lower tiers they aren't very familiar with (although Bobby Dagen did this more in older gens). The huge shift to the meta after Week 1 will probably wash away any disadvantage they might face by not being an NU mainer - even then, they have high-caliber support from lax and Ho3nConfirm3d respectively.

Week 1:
SS NU: bugzinator vs CyberOdin

SS NU: GW vs aim
SS NU: Jrdn vs Realistic Waters
SS NU: Kushalos vs Sjneider
SS NU: Bobby Dagen vs elodin

Very interesting matchups this week, which is also the only week to be played in the SS NU meta that has more or less been around for 2 months. From Week 2 on, the meta will look completely different from this due to the massive number of drops from RU.

Adding to the intrigue, almost all matchups are between players who are very close in the Power Rankings. Sjneider and Kushalos face off in a potential season highlight between the 1 and 2 ranks; Jrdn and Realistic Waters, both highly rated NU tour players who have been away for a while, square off; two pairs of possibly underrated players face off in Bobby Dagen vs elodin and bugzinator vs CyberOdin; and GW takes on aim in the week where his extensive NU experience will be most critical.

What do you think about the Power Rankings? Predictions for Week 1? Leave your thoughts below!

jcbc · Aug 31, 2020

waters to dominate this pool

shiloh · Sep 1, 2020

SS NU: bugzinator vs CyberOdin

this should be an interesting game, and i dont think its one anyone expected to see pre-draft. the bushmasters made a somewhat risky gamble by choosing odin for their nu slot, and this debut should be a good indicator on how well this pick pays off. he is playing bugz here, who is also not really known for his nu play, but at least is considered one of the better lower tier players in general. a veteran of lower tiers and team tours, he been around the block for a while, so the shift for him into nu isnt as surprising. he also has a lot better team support in lax, who will be able to help while hes starting ou. odin on the other hand has sensei axew, who is more known for his ru builds and playing, so this will def be an uphill battle for the bushmasters core.

SS NU: GW vs aim

as i mentioned in the prs, gw is the only player in this pool without any official tour experience, so hes going to be jumping into the deep end right from the start here. aim is not an easy opponnent for him to start with, as joey has a lot more experience playing tour games, and is still actively playing pokemon, so he gw cant even rely on him being a bit rusty when it comes to playing. the only leg up that gw has is that he has better team support in finch, and aim hasnt really focused much on nu during ss. overall should be a fun game, and the only debut that we will get to see week 1.

SS NU: Kushalos vs Sjneider

probably the highlight of the week here, we have two of the top 3 players in this pool imo, and we get to see them play right off the bat. im bolding neider here mainly bc i know hes kept up to date on the nu metagame a lot better than kush has throughout the year. kush does not have the metagame knowledge he did last gen which would otherwise alleviate his inactivity, as it would not be hard for him to jump back into a meta that he knows, and can build for. if this matchup happened later on in the tour once kush gets the metagame knowledge a bit more in tune i think this would be a lot closer than it currently is on paper.

SS NU: Bobby Dagen vs elodin

similar to the last matchup, i am also very excited to watch this game among two nu veterans of sm. also similar to kush/neider, my bold is mainly based on the fact that rodri has been playing ss a lot more recently, and i am not sure how much ss elodin has played, let alone how much pokemon in general since his tourban started. should still be a really fun game though, and hopefully they are both able to catch back up fast, and we'll be able to see a repeat of the sm success that they both had through the generation

Finchinator · Sep 1, 2020

SS NU: bugzinator vs CyberOdin

- If someone told me that bugzinator was playing CyberOdin in week 1 of Snake before the draft, NU would not have been within the first three tiers I guessed. Odin is predominantly known as an OU player, bugzinator is predominantly known as a UU player, and people discussed him as a potential PU starter before the tournament a bit. With that said, bugzinator has had some amazing NUPL runs and I feel like he is more up-to-date with modern lower tiers than Odin is or ever has been. I think he will transition easily and is less likely to use something suboptimal. Odin could easily win based on sheer gameplay ability as he is a superb player, but until we see how he is in this metagame, I will go with bugzinator.

SS NU: Jrdn vs Realistic Waters - I guess this pick is an upset? I mean I do not personally think so, but others are less high on Jrdn. I think Jrdn did a great job establishing himself last year and will pick back up where he left off. He has two of the best pieces of NU support on Smogon on his team as managers in rozes and Eternally. This NU core is as scary as it gets to me. Realistic Waters is great though. His teams are always creative, his plays are always on-point, and his records are always strong. I think he will have another positive run this season and I do not doubt that he can win this game. I just think the NU core for the Serpents is going to be hard for anyone to take down. I believe Jrdn will have one of the best records in the tier this season if he remains active and motivated.

SS NU: Kushalos vs Sjneider - Sjneider is the best player in this NU field. Kushalos is not in the top group in my eyes either. Kushalos has potential to get there, but I have seen him around less this generation in general and in NU than prior. I think he has to prove that he can pick up where he left off and until I see that, I will be pretty confident in picking Sjneider. I will say that if he is up to the task, Kushalos can beat anyone with the right techs hitting or the right aggressive reads working, which he excels at making happen. However, Sjneider is as solid as it gets in NU this generation. He builds well, he is active, and he plays a strong game.

SS NU: Bobby Dagen vs elodin - Both are similar as players overall in my eyes. Both have done well in NU in the past, too. Bobby Dagen seems to have more recent experience in NU though. elodin has great support in ren-chon on board, but this cannot fully compensate for experience that he is missing. Bobby Dagen is likely to have another good season and I do not doubt that elodin will, too, but it may take him a few weeks to hit his stride and really begin to pick up consistent wins.

Also very excited to see Joey's games and will post predictions on them when he is not playing my teammate GW, who is kind of ok, too, I guess.

Expulso · Sep 6, 2020

Week 2 is up!

Week 2:
NU: aim vs bugzinator
NU: CyberOdin

vs Realistic Waters
NU: GW vs Sjneider
NU: Jrdn vs elodin
NU: Kushalos vs Ho3nConfirm3d

SS NU: bugzinator vs CyberOdin

SS NU: GW vs aim
SS NU: Jrdn vs Realistic Waters
SS NU: ~~Kushalos~~ Skipkan vs Sjneider
SS NU: ~~Bobby Dagen~~ vs elodin

What do you think about the week 2 matchups? How did the Week 1 games go? Leave your thoughts below!

(also, once you schedule a time let me know here or on Discord - Expulso#7025 - so I can add it to the second post of the thread).

Expulso · Sep 9, 2020

Figure I'll kick off the Week 1 discussion since there haven't been any posts here yet.

Week 1:
[RAT] bugzinator vs CyberOdin [BUS]
[AST] GW vs aim [TAI]
[SER] Jrdn vs Realistic Waters [LIN]
[LEV] Skipkan vs Sjneider [COB]
[MAM] Ho3nConfirm3d vs elodin [NAG]

Week 1 Snake

Code:

+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Silvally           |    8 |  80.00% |  50.00% |
| 2    | Miltank            |    4 |  40.00% |  50.00% |
| 2    | Toxicroak          |    4 |  40.00% |  50.00% |
| 2    | Rotom-Fan          |    4 |  40.00% |  25.00% |
| 5    | Ninjask            |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 5    | Wishiwashi         |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 5    | Clefairy           |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 5    | Persian-Alola      |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 9    | Eldegoss           |    2 |  20.00% | 100.00% |
| 9    | Garbodor           |    2 |  20.00% | 100.00% |
| 9    | Weezing            |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 9    | Golurk             |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 9    | Rotom              |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 9    | Stunfisk-Galar     |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 9    | Basculin           |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 16   | Quagsire           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Mr. Rime           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Cofagrigus         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Togedemaru         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Magneton           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Rotom-Frost        |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Piloswine          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Kangaskhan         |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Abomasnow          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Sandaconda         |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Morpeko            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Exeggutor          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Ferroseed          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Tangela            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |

Silvally breakdown:
- Dragon: 2 (elodin, GW) - 1-1
- Ghost: 2 (jrdn, Ho3nConfirm3d) - 0-2
- Dark: 1 (Realistic Waters) - 1-0
- Fighting: 1 (Sjneider) - 1-0
- Ground: 1 (aim) - 1-0
- Fire: 1 (Skipkan) - 0-1

I won't go too much into it because this is now an old meta, but here are some interesting trends we saw:
- Lots of variety in Silvally forms: 6 different types were used, and Fighting/Fire in particular are rarely seen. These unique Silvally formes give the user a secret weapon to break through defensive cores that may not have been expecting that threat. Will we see a centralization around Silv-Steel next week, or will players continue to branch out?

- :rotom-fan:

Lots of pivots: Continuing the theme of 'momentum is everything' that NP thread posters had brought up in the last week or two, we saw 7 Rotoms, 3 Persian-Alolas, 3 Wishiwashis, and 1 Togedemaru, Lanturn, and Morpeko. That's 16 Pokemon with a pivoting move, even before counting Ninjask and possible U-turn/PShot Silvallys. Is this a healthy trend? Do y'all see it continuing into Week 2 and the new meta?

- :decidueye:

Decidueye Usage = 0: Despite being one of three S-ranked Pokemon, Decidueye remarkably saw 0 uses in Week 1. Why is that? I would speculate that the common-ness of resists to its STABs means it is forced into predictions very frequently if running Specs (perhaps this is the same reason Sawk also received 0 uses), and non-choiced sets like SD and Defog were less appealing due to blanket checks like Persian-A and Ninjask beating SD and Defog being unable to keep hazards off versus common setters like Miltank and Garbodor.

Did you enjoy this meta, or do you think it has gotten stale? How do you expect these trends to change this week? Leave your thoughts below!

bugzinator · Sep 14, 2020

Only 2/10 teams for week 2 didn't feature a Drampa (props to RW & Kush for that). The strain that single Pokemon put on team building last week was enormous, and personally I didn't enjoy that kind of meta anywhere near as much as week 1. It's clear most players just wanted to abuse it while they could (before the ban) hence the ridiculously high usage it received.

Looking forward to seeing how the meta will develop this week with Drampa gone. Hoping for a bit more breathing space in building & for a more enjoyable tier overall.

Special shoutout to CyberOdin & whoever was helping him with his prep last week for bringing out some cool techs. The scarf Poliwrath was good to see and actually put in a lot of work, and I had a similar idea of using soundproof Mime as a Drampa check, but it was cool to see someone actually follow through with it, even if he didn't face a Drampa. I believe he likely would have won if not for the unfortunate timeout.

Expulso · Sep 15, 2020

Week 2:
[TAI] aim vs bugzinator [RAT]
[BUS] CyberOdin vs Realistic Waters [LIN]
[AST] GW vs Sjneider [COB]
[SER] Jrdn vs Ren-chon [NAG]
[LEV] Kushalos vs Ho3nConfirm3d [MAM]

Week 2 Snake

Code:

+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Drampa             |    8 |  80.00% |  37.50% |
| 2    | Ninjask            |    5 |  50.00% |  60.00% |
| 2    | Mudsdale           |    5 |  50.00% |  40.00% |
| 4    | Silvally           |    4 |  40.00% |  75.00% |
| 5    | Sneasel            |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 5    | Togedemaru         |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 5    | Whimsicott         |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 5    | Garbodor           |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 5    | Ribombee           |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 10   | Weezing            |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 10   | Stunfisk-Galar     |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 10   | Vikavolt           |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 10   | Jellicent          |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 14   | Gastrodon          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Sandslash-Alola    |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Eldegoss           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Persian-Alola      |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Gallade            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Clefairy           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Thievul            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Magneton           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 14   | Sandaconda         |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 14   | Wishiwashi         |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 14   | Rapidash           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 14   | Duraludon          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 14   | Mr. Mime           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 14   | Poliwrath          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 14   | Sawk               |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |

Silvally breakdown:
- Steel: 2 (bugzinator, aim) - 1-1
- Water: 2 (Realistic waters, Jrdn) - 1-1

Sorry for the delay -- thanks for kicking things off, bugzinator!

As he said, Drampa was insane in usage this week. 8/10 is ridiculously high, showing that there was basically no downside to using Drampa. Ninjask, Mudsdale, and Sneasel were next up in usage, though none of them were nearly as common as Drampa, they have each proven to be staples of the tier.

Drampa took up the breaker slot on pretty much every team; looking through the usage stats, the vast majority of these Pokemon are bulky sponges. Ninjask, Sneasel, and Ribombee stand out as the few other offensive threats people liked to used. Beyond them, however, virtually every other Pokemon used more than once was a bulky pivot designed to provide team support while Drampa does the task of wallbreaking.

Without Drampa, this meta should look quite different, with many more wallbreakers for people to choose from. There will likely be plenty of other changes, too, and i'll get right into a few of my guesses.

Future Trends to consider:
- :whimsicott:

Fairy-types: This week, teams opted more for offensive fairies than defensive ones; Whimsicott and Ribombee each saw 3 uses, whereas Clefairy only got 1 and Aromatisse got 0. With Drampa gone, will this trend continue? Or will defensive Fairy-types prove valuable for handling major threats such as Sneasel and SD Gallade?

- Hazard Removal / Heavy-Duty Boots / Item Displacement: only 1 Rapid Spin user, Eldegoss, was used this week. (Sandslash-Alola learns it, but Kushalos's did not have Rapid Spin). Some Defog Whimsicotts and Silvallys were used, but their lack of recovery makes hazard stacking seem very appealing right now. Except ..... this week we saw multiple Heavy-Duty Boots users on every team, a trend extending to even non-SR weak Pokemon like Whimsicott, Drampa, and Jellicent. Will item displacement become as important in SS NU as it currently is in SS OU?

- The Suspects: Sneasel and RIbombee saw 3 uses Week 2, Duraludon and Gallade were used once, and nobody used Kingler, Vanilluxe, or Frosmoth. Yet, all of these Pokemon were recently voted on by the NU Council, which makes a strong case that they each have the potential to be threatening. Will players continue to favor the first two Pokemon in this list? Or will the rest of the suspects rise in usage as players experiment with them and find ways to make them threatening?

- :ninetales:

Pokemon Checked by Drampa: Of the recent bans, Drampa had the most defensive utility. Now that it is gone, will some of the Pokemon it checked rise in usage? Ninetales comes to mind as a particularly promising example, since the tier is down to 1 Dragon-type (Duraludon doesn't count).

Leave your thoughts on Week 2 and some Week 3 predictions below!

Week 3:
[RAT] bugzinator vs Realistic Waters [LIN]
[TAI] aim vs Sjneider [COB]
[BUS] CyberOdin:cross: vs elodin [NAG]
[AST] GW vs Ho3nConfirm3d [MAM]
[SER] Jrdn vs Kushalos [LEV]

Mr.Bossaru · Sep 15, 2020

good luck guys

Expulso · Sep 22, 2020

Week 3:
[RAT] bugzinator vs Realistic Waters [LIN]
[TAI] aim vs Sjneider [COB]
[BUS] CyberOdin vs elodin [NAG]
[AST] GW vs Ho3nConfirm3d [MAM]
[SER] Jrdn vs Kushalos [LEV]

Week 3 Snake

Code:

+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Mudsdale           |    6 |  60.00% |  50.00% |
| 2    | Silvally           |    5 |  50.00% |  20.00% |
| 3    | Jellicent          |    4 |  40.00% |  75.00% |
| 3    | Duraludon          |    4 |  40.00% |  50.00% |
| 5    | Gallade            |    3 |  30.00% | 100.00% |
| 5    | Ribombee           |    3 |  30.00% | 100.00% |
| 5    | Miltank            |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 5    | Ninjask            |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 5    | Poliwrath          |    3 |  30.00% |   0.00% |
| 10   | Weezing            |    2 |  20.00% | 100.00% |
| 10   | Ninetales          |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 10   | Sandslash-Alola    |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 10   | Rotom              |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 10   | Whimsicott         |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 15   | Wishiwashi         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Accelgor           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Gurdurr            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Sneasel            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Stunfisk-Galar     |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Rapidash           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Decidueye          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Vanilluxe          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Cinccino           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Cofagrigus         |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Garbodor           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Mr. Mime-Galar     |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Magneton           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Aromatisse         |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Clefairy           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Exeggutor          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |

Silvally breakdown:
- Silvally-Steel: 3 (elodin, CyberOdin, bugzinator) - 1-2
- Dragon: 1 (Jrdn) - 0-1
- Ghost: 1 (aim) - 0-1

Silvally went 1-4 and the only win was in a Silvally v Silvally matchup. Oof.

A few trends:
- :sneasel:

Sneasel only saw 1 use but was pretty intensely prepped for, with 3 Poliwrath uses + a Gurdurr. We heard a lot about it being broken, but its flaws have prevented teams from using it so far. Maybe this week it will tear teams up with CB Triple Axels if they prep for it less. (Fwiw, Poliwrath's 3 uses all resulted in losses -- maybe having to use it largely for Sneasel is holding teams back in other matchups to some extent).
- :Gallade:

Gallade and Ribombee each put up a 100% winrate this week, going 3/3. Winrate only means so much in a 5-game sample size, but most of those wins involved Gallade or Ribombee putting in work. Kushalos' Gallade won with a SD+Salac sweep and Sjneider's killed 1 and then put aim's Silvally in Moonblast range. RW's Ribombee came in vs Bugzinator's slower Pokemon, clicked Moonblast, and chipped the team a ton, while for Neider the speed control + power was helpful to revenge kill aim's Silvally-Ghost without being locked into a weak move that could be set up on. Gallade + Fairy was a common structure in general; 2 of the gallades were used alongside Ribombee, and the third was used with Whimsicott. U-turning into Gallade on their Steel-type (and Poison, if they didn't click Psychic) checks can give the fighter plenty of opportunities; give it a try!
- :jellicent:

These 3 became bulky offense staples this week; appearing on 4, 6, and 3 teams respectively, they made up at least some of the defensive backbone of most BO teams. Toxic was the big way to make progress against them this week, with Mudsdale on Mudsdale Toxic wars being a common sight. Will we see some innovative new setup Pokemon used to take advantage of their relative passivity, or will Gallade/Ribombee continue to be the go-to breakers?

Leave your thoughts on Week 3 and some Week 4 predictions below!

Week 4:
[LIN] Realistic Waters vs elodin [NAG]
[COB] Sjneider vs bugzinator [RAT]
[AST] GW vs Jrdn [SER]
[LEV] Kushalos vs CyberOdin [BUS]
[MAM] Ho3nConfirm3d vs aim [TAI]

Sjneider · Sep 24, 2020

So I read PIF’s post analyzing the game between Adaam and Lilburr from last week (great post btw) and wanted to do something similar to revive this thread a bit and show off an equally sick NU game between Jrdn and Kushalos. (tagging if you guys wanna add your thoughts).

https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen8nu-518289

Screen Shot 2020-09-24 at 5.46.34 AM.png

On preview, I think this matchup is honestly pretty even as both sides have the ability to break their opponent’s defensive cores with their respective threats but also have mons (jelli/weez/fisk for kush and muds/slash/tisse for jrdn) to sponge hits.

On Kushalos’s side, he has Duraludon to throw off powerful attacks and Weezing/Jellicent to help spread status, tspikes to chip down jrdn’s team for a Gallade sweep. For Jrdn, rotom looks great as Kush’s best switch in to it is Stunfisk-galar, which can be knocked/chipped down with spikes.

I won’t comment on every single turn but I’ll share my thoughts on key turns/important positions I saw in the game.

Kush leads duraludon, realizing that his opponent doesn’t really have great answers for this (also depending on the vally type) and jrdn does the same with his rotom (so we got 2 lead gods here huh). Honestly a good lead from both sides as jrdn is able to chunk dura for 30 with volt switch and grab some momentum

Turn 3: Jrdn pivots around duraludon extremely nicely and gets his poliwrath in to finish off the Duraludon but Kush reveals a very cool Power herb solar beam set that absolutely nukes poliwrath

Turn 6: Jrdn tricks fisk his scarf, essentially crippling it/preventing it from gaining lefties recovery and freeing himself up to switching moves.

I really want to highlight this turn because it deals with the ever-so-common decision to trick away your item that I see a lot of players, myself included, struggle with simply because it is really hard to see whether doing so is beneficial in the long run or not.

By tricking away his scarf, Jrdn is trading his speed control to accelerate breaking Kush’s fisk. Although this is great as it cripples a very annoying wall, it also leaves jrdn with less speed options to revenge a potential Scarf Gallade or Whimsicott.

In my opinion, this trade was okay simply because it would be a LOT harder for jrdn to break fisk otherwise and he has aromatisse+muds+fisk all at 100% still to check gallade and whimsicott so I probably would’ve done the same.

Turn 61: skip all the way here just because the turns in between are just Jrdn getting spikes up and breaking with shadow ball as I mentioned above. It’s not looking great for Kush, all of his mons are getting chipped and it is only a matter of time before rotom cleans up the rest of his crew. His only hope is to get Gallade in and set up on either Aloslash or Mudsdale. He makes a great play here u turning into the Weezing sack, giving his Gallade an opportunity to come in and set up.

Turn 63: Kush has just switched his gallade in and Jrdn switches out into mudsdale, keeping the aloslash for whimsi, which is a fine play if Kush’s gallade was the scarf set. However, as we will soon find out, it isn’t!

Turn 64: Kush gets another SD up in front of Muds, hoping that Jrdn chooses to EQ putting him into the Salac Berry range. In hindsight, its easy to say that Jrdn should’ve clicked toxic but had Kush been a Sub set the game would’ve still played out in the same sequence. Kush would get another SD up behind sub and he would keep subbing down until he is within Salac range.

Kush then proceeds to clean the rest of Jrdn’s team with his boosted Gallade and thats gg.

So how could Jrdn have avoided this? Turn 63 instead of switching out into mudsdale, if jrdn stayed in with aloslash and iron headed gallade, he would chip it down to about ~38% (outside of salad range) forcing Kush to attack the next turn.
He could then bring in either rotom or silvally to rk gallade and clean up whims/jelli with the rest of his guys.

Overall, an extremely well played game from both players, kudos to both jrdn and kushalos. Watch this game for Jrdn’s patented offensive pivoting and watch this game for Kush’s patience and playing to your win-cons.

Playing Bugzi on Sunday, 6pm EST

Expulso · Sep 27, 2020

Week 4:
[LIN] Realistic Waters vs elodin [NAG]
[COB] Sjneider vs bugzinator [RAT]
[AST] GW vs Jrdn [SER]
[LEV] Kushalos vs CyberOdin [BUS]
[MAM] Ho3nConfirm3d vs aim [TAI]

Week 4 Snake

Code:

+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Silvally           |    6 |  60.00% |  33.33% |
| 2    | Mudsdale           |    5 |  50.00% |  60.00% |
| 3    | Rotom              |    4 |  40.00% |  75.00% |
| 3    | Ninjask            |    4 |  40.00% |  50.00% |
| 5    | Duraludon          |    3 |  30.00% | 100.00% |
| 5    | Ribombee           |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 5    | Weezing            |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 5    | Sandslash-Alola    |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 5    | Gallade            |    3 |  30.00% |   0.00% |
| 10   | Clawitzer          |    2 |  20.00% | 100.00% |
| 10   | Whimsicott         |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 10   | Jellicent          |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 10   | Stunfisk-Galar     |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 10   | Miltank            |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 15   | Cinccino           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Garbodor           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Wishiwashi         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Rhydon             |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Clefairy           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Ferroseed          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Froslass           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Poliwrath          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Piloswine          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Persian-Alola      |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Ninetales          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Rapidash-Galar     |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Cramorant          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Gastrodon          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Thwackey           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Togedemaru         |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |

Silvally breakdown:
- Dark: 2 (rw, gw) - 1-1
- Steel: 2 (jrdn, ho3n) - 1-1
- Water: 1 (elodin) - 0-1
- Ghost: 1 (bugzinator) - 0-1

Some good games this week, I personally enjoy the current state of the meta and think the games have all shown high-quality play and been entertaining to watch.

There are just two big topics I wanted to touch on this week:

- :Rotom:

Ghost-types: Rotom-N's popularity went way up this week; it got 4 uses, matching its combined total from the first 3 weeks of SSD. Three of the four Rotoms were Sub+NP, with Sjneider's Trick Specs Rotom being the exception. Why did it get so popular? Imo there are a few major reasons: Mudsdale, the second most common Pokemon in tour play, is the most common Volt absorber but can be taken advantage of by Sub (which can wear down a Toxiced Rotom very easily, & can't even be broken by ToxTect Muds) or by Specs Shadow Ball making it unable to check the other things it needs to. It also has a speed tier higher than other prominent breakers such as Gallade and Duraludon.

However, we also saw some of its shortcomings; in Ho3nConfirm3d vs pokeaim, Ho3n's Rotom couldn't put up a Sub versus aim's Mudsdale, which could break though the Sub even with a resisted Heavy Slam. Aim's Rotom then was unable to KO a 26% Silvally-Steel; although it didn't matter by then, this shows how Rotom's damage output can be really low despite it still being a useful disruptor.

Bugzinator had a similar idea when bringing Sub+SD Silvally-Ghost, which trades the ability to Sub on Mudsdale for a higher Speed tier & more power.

☆sjneider: can u guys stop bringing ghostvally vs me!!!!
☆sjneider: i am weak to it!!

However, the bulk advantage was negated by its use of contact moves & vulnerability to Spikes. Bugzi got a Sub up vs neider's Clefairy but, despite having no Ghost resists, Sjneider was able to handle it; by forcing it to come in on 3 layers of Spikes, it ended up dying to Iron Barbs from Ferroseed.

These Pokemon would be even more potent if Miltank showed up more than the season-low two times it did this week. Perhaps its low usage is a reaction to the oncoming Sub Ghost-type trend; more likely, however, it's because of how splashable Mudsdale is. With Rotom able to sub on Mudsdale and Miltank now, I wonder if teams will begin searching for new Rockers or otherwise trying to handle it.

:Duraludon:

Duraludon: Duraludon was the other Pokemon to put up an excellent winrate this week, going 3/3.

Duraludon got used in a number of different ways this week; I think the meta trends are, on the whole, good for it, but the techs on each specific set didn't always hit. (I personally think Specs is the most threatening, and find it interesting that lots of teams used Leftovers / Stealth Rock sets).

Sandslash-Alola is the most common defensive Steel-type, and having a quad-weakness to Fighting and being neutral to Steel mean that Duraludon can take it out very easily. Stunfisk-Galar saw two uses, but the rise in usage of Mudsdale means that using Stunfisk-Galar will often put you on the back foot defensively without a very solid core -- discouraging people from using Fisk-G and making Duraludon better. On the defensive end, Duraludon can give offensive teams much-needed insurance against Ninjask. Although its pathetic Special bulk forces teams to use another steel to handle Ice- and Fairy-types, teammates like Ferroseed and Stunfisk-Galar can provide enough utility to prevent this from hindering teams defensively.

In Realistic Waters vs elodin, elodin's SpDef Togedemaru impressively tanked a Draco, taking just 26%, but RW broke through in a tight endgame due to 1) Body Press outdamaging Toge's recovery and 2) defensive Togedemaru being unable to do any significant damage back to it. In Sjneider v bugzinator, bugzinator's use of Sandslash-Alola as his steel seemed to leave him vulnerable to Duraludon, though the team actually handled it well by using what seems to have been a specially defensive Gastrodon. Even so, however, neider's IDef + BPress Dura could have gotten a kill late-game (but ended up being barely in SToss range). Kushalos got even more innovative than IDef + BPress by using a Metal Sound Throat Spray Duraludon. I'm as confused as you are. Interesting to note that even at -2 Def, Stunfisk-Galar still forced out Kushalos' Duraludon. However, even in that bad MU for it it was valuable as an offensive answer to Ninjask.

Leave your thoughts on Week 4 and some Week 5 predictions below! I'll soon update this with cumulative usage stats from Week 3 + Week 4, which are in the same meta (finally!).

Week 5:
[RAT] bugzinator vs elodin [NAG]
[COB] Sjneider vs Ho3nConfirm3d [MAM]
[LIN] Realistic Waters vs Kushalos [LEV]
[TAI] aim vs Jrdn [SER]
[BUS] CyberOdin:cross: vs GW [AST]

Expulso · Oct 6, 2020

Week 5:
[RAT] bugzinator vs elodin [NAG]
[COB] Sjneider vs Ho3nConfirm3d [MAM]
[LIN] Realistic Waters vs Kushalos [LEV]
[TAI] aim vs Jrdn [SER]
[BUS] soulgazer vs GW [AST]

Week 5 NU Snake Usage

Code:

+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Silvally           |    6 |  60.00% |  50.00% |
| 2    | Cofagrigus         |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 2    | Mudsdale           |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 2    | Weezing            |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 2    | Sandslash-Alola    |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 2    | Ninjask            |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 7    | Clawitzer          |    2 |  20.00% | 100.00% |
| 7    | Rotom-Fan          |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 7    | Appletun           |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 7    | Vanilluxe          |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 7    | Ninetales          |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 7    | Ribombee           |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 7    | Whimsicott         |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 7    | Wishiwashi         |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 7    | Stunfisk-Galar     |    2 |  20.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Gastrodon          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Clefairy           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Persian-Alola      |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Duraludon          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Skuntank           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Mawile             |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Kangaskhan         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Rapidash           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Gallade            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Leafeon            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Togedemaru         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Thievul            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Kingler            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Froslass           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Rhydon             |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Sawk               |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Cramorant          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Sneasel            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Jellicent          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Miltank            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Sableye            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |

In addition, cumulative stats weeks 3-5 are now in Post 2.

I don't have any discussion points right now but will (hopefully) make a follow-up later! I would love to hear some other people discuss, though

Meri Berry · Oct 7, 2020

Silvally breakdown:
- Dragon: 2 - (pokeaim, elodin) 1-1
- Steel: 1 - (Kushalos) 1-0
- Ghost: 1 - (Sjneider) 0-1
- Poison: 1 - (jrdn) 0-1
- ???: 1 - (soulgazer) 1-0 (I'm guessing this is Silvally-Steel)

Small thoughts on the week:

:Ninjask:

Ninjask has proven to be a premier speed control option in this metagame, creeping :Ribombee:

Ribombee unboosted and being able to outspeed any scarfer after a protect. It didn't get a great winrate this week, but its a consistent force in the metagame (particularly the potency of boots sets) that shouldn't be overlooked.

:Cofagrigus:

Ghost types were prevalent again this week, with Cofagrigus rising from 0 uses last week to 3 this week, and grabbing a relatively good winrate as well. I suspect this is partially because of the inconsistency of poison types such as :Weezing:

Weezing and :Garbodor:

Garbodor at checking :Gallade:

Gallade, making a bulky ghost type like Cofagrigus that can threaten a team with its setup moves and near unresisted stab a lot more potent, as well as a ghost like Sableye that hard walls it.

:Clawitzer:

Clawitzer is a scary breaker that I think has gone underrated, as many people believe that it is a mon that both needs terrain support to actually hit hard and needs specs to do damage. However, as shown in the soulgazer vs. GW game, Clawitzer is a great tool for absolutely decimating defensive cores due to its top tier coverage moves, and it doesn't even need specs to do it. It also learns both U-Turn and Flip Turn, meaning that it doesn't have to lose momentum in bad matchups (though it sacrifices coverage to do so). I think this is a threat that needs to have an eye on it, as it has 100% winrate over 4 games from the past 2 weeks.

:Silvally-Steel:

Steel types seem to be dominating in defensive cores on teams, with many different options to choose from. Only 1 team didn't bring a steel (assuming soulgazer brought Silvally-Steel), which happened to be a very offensive screens team by Sjneider that didn't need the defensive ulility from the typing. With so many threats such as :Ribombee:

Ribombee,

Ninjask, and now :Escavalier:

Escavalier (also a steel type!) sitting at the top of the viability, and with the immense amount of utility all of these steel types provide to a team, I expect most teams to have at least one steel type, if not two.

:Appletun:

Last note, saw a few other dragons this week such as Silvally-Dragon and Appletun. I think that this, as well as the lack of overcentralization of Duraladon in this week, is showing that :Duraludon:

Duraludon doesn't function as a normal Dragon type when the type is valuable to the tier in order to wall things such as :Ninetales:

Ninetales and other fire types that have rose in popularity.

Feel free to give feedback on this post, as I wrote it rather late and its my first time doing something like this. Sorry if I said something that others think is inaccurate.

Expulso · Oct 11, 2020

Week 6:
[RAT] bugzinator vs Ho3nConfirm3d [MAM]
[SER] Jrdn vs Sjneider [COB]
[AST] GW vs Realistic Waters [LIN]
[LEV] Kushalos vs elodin [NAG]
[BUS] CyberOdin

vs aim [TAI]

Week 6 Snake

Code:

+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Silvally           |    5 |  50.00% |  60.00% |
| 1    | Rapidash           |    5 |  50.00% |  60.00% |
| 1    | Mudsdale           |    5 |  50.00% |  20.00% |
| 1    | Escavalier         |    5 |  50.00% |  20.00% |
| 5    | Thievul            |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 5    | Stunfisk-Galar     |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 5    | Whimsicott         |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 5    | Ninjask            |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 5    | Wishiwashi         |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 10   | Rotom              |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 10   | Jellicent          |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 10   | Poliwrath          |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 10   | Rotom-Frost        |    2 |  20.00% |   0.00% |
| 14   | Gallade            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Qwilfish           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Trevenant          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Persian-Alola      |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Cramorant          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Piloswine          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Weezing            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Sableye            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| -    | Gourgeist-*        |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Magneton           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Garbodor           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Gourgeist-Small    |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Ferroseed          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 14   | Ninetales          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 14   | Clefairy           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 14   | Cofagrigus         |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 14   | Gurdurr            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 14   | Rotom-Fan          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |

Silvally breakdown:
- Dragon: 1 (aim) 1-0
- Grass: 1 (bugzinator) 1-0
- Steel: 1 (kushalos) 1-0
- Ghost: 1 (ho3n) 0-1
- Dark: 1 (neider) 0-1

im going to finish some schoolwork then double post with some analysis from this week later tn / tomorrow

Expulso · Oct 12, 2020

Sup guys, I'll now touch on a few trends we saw in the NU metagame this week of Snake.

The cumulative usage stats are updated; check them out in post #2.

+ :escavalier:

, -

NU experienced a huge change this week; RU/UU staple Escavalier was introduced to the metagame, falling to NU by usage and narrowly avoiding a Ban majority in the most recent council vote. Its base 135 Attack makes Choice Band Escavalier the strongest wallbreaker in the tier, capable of 2HKOing nearly every Pokemon despite being slower than most of the meta. Specially Defensive sets are also excellent, providing a bulky, non-passive answer to threatening Fairy-type wallbreakers like Ribombee and Whimsicott and other threats like Duraludon and Vanilluxe. It also takes advantage of NU's lack of Fire-type Pokemon; Rapidash and Ninetales are pretty much the only Pokemon that can threaten an OHKO on it.

This week, Sneasel was also banned due to its ability to hit nearly the whole tier hard with its strong STABs, tearing through a tier with very few Dark resists.

So, how did the tier change?

:rapidash:

Rapidash: 5 uses, 60% Winrate
Rapidash is one of two NU Fire-types, and Snake players favored it over Ninetales for a few reasons. It has access to recovery, a high speed tier (which makes it a check to Ninetales as well), and Flame Body to punish U-turn and Ninjask spam. Its recovery also makes it a nice secondary check to Fairy-types, which can be useful to prevent Escavalier or another Steel type on the team from taking chip. The utility set is really good at Toxic-ing Mudsdales and bulky waters, which offensive teams appreciate. (In reaction to this, more of these waters have opted for RestTalk, such as GW's Wishiwashi and Realistic Waters' Poliwrath).

Rapidash @ Heavy-Duty Boots
Ability: Flame Body / Flash Fire
EVs: 240 HP / 16 SpD / 252 Spe
Jolly Nature
- Flare Blitz
- High Horsepower
- Toxic
- Morning Sun

POINTS TO CONSIDER:
- Is Utility the best Rapidash set? Beyond Toxic-ing Mudsdale and bulky waters, it struggles to damage them; its reliance on Toxic also costs it lots of momentum if the opponent has Weezing, for instance. I've found Swords Dance to be very fun on offensive teams, able to do a lot to Mudsdale off of its base 100 Attack while hitting Water-types hard with Wild Charge ~~or power herb solar blade.~~ This would be effective against the RestTalk waters that frustrate utility Rapidash.
- Are other Fire-types worth trying? Flareon has base 130 Attack, great special bulk, and access to Wish; is it worth a shot, or is C-rank high enough for it?
- Will we see a resurgence of Thick Fat Miltank to handle these Fire-types?

:escavalier:

Escavalier: 5 uses, 20% Winrate
I spent a whole paragraph hyping up Escavalier, and it posted a 20% winrate in its debut. (damn, winning only one of your first 5 games...... sounds familiar for some reason

)
What went wrong for it? I'll look at two games:

bugzinator vs Ho3nConfirm3d:
Bugzinator's Lefties Escav gets burned Turn 2 trying to check Rotom-Frost. Due to Ho3n not having a Fire type, he goes into Wishiwashi to check it, making it take a Knock Off (which is unfortunate, because Wishi really wants its Leftovers). That Knock Off comes at the course of 44% health from Hydro, though. Due to it being burnt, Bugzi sacks it to a Blizzard Turn 13 and it is dead.

Ho3n's CB Escav gets into battle to attack three times. The first time, it does 33% to Silv-Grass with a Knock Off (predicting Bugzi to go Qwilfish, I assume) before being forced out by the threat of Flamethrower; the second time, it forces out a low health Qwilfish and KOs the Silvally-Grass. The third and final time, it forces out a CC-locked Gallade because its bulk lets it avoid the OHKO, but then cannot do enough to KO bugzinator's fully physically defensive Qwilfish (even if it hit, which it didn't). It then gets hit by Thievul and dies.

Sjneider vs jrdn:
Neider's Escav struggles to get opportunities in the early game because jrdn's mons that let in Escav in theory are all able to pivot out, letting him bring in checks like Rapidash and Cramorant whenever neider wanted to go to work with Escav. It does little work in the early game, knocking Cramorant's Boots and missing a -1 Megahorn that would have done very little to Rapidash. If running Rest (Rest+Chesto or RestTalk), it would have been able to force out Ninjask after living two Dual Wingbeats due to its great bulk. Sadly, the first one crit, so we never got to see whether that's the case.

Basically, Escavalier doesn't do anything bad in these games; its bulk is useful for both Ho3n and Sjneider (if he didn't get unlucky with Wingbeat). Its problem is that all the Pokemon it beats have 1) disappeared or 2) run pivoting moves to get away from it and bring in the mons that threaten it out. Ribombee, Vanilluxe, and Duraludon got 0 uses this week, falling off the map due to the mere threat of your opponent using Escavalier. The Escav-weak mons that remained, such as Whimsicott and Rotom-Frost, can cripple it with Leech Seed / Wisp or pivot into a check with U-turn / Volt Switch. All in all, Escav's problem is not that it isn't super strong or useful; it is. However, the metagame has become warped by it to the point that people don't use the Pokemon it walls, and everything it can beat runs moves to pivot out into its checks.

This shows that people prep for Escavalier really heavily right now more than showing that it is in any way a bad Pokemon. However, with such aggressive prep for it, teams might have to find new mons to use in its role or change the way that they use / support Escavalier.

POINTS TO CONSIDER:
- With Escavalier being unsuccessful in its debut, will we see a rise of Escav-walled Pokemon like Ribombee and the Ice-types, anticipating Escav to be used less?
- Does this week of games show us anything about whether Escavalier is banworthy? Does it have a healthy impact on the tier?

:thievul:

Thievul: 3 Uses, 66% Winrate

The final addition to this week is Thievul. Sneasel leaving removed one offensive Dark-type, and Specs Thievul rose to take its place. It is very useful for a few reasons:
1) People use less defensive fairies, like Clef and Aroma, due to the rise of Escav. Since those are its best checks, it really appreciates that.
2) Passive defensive Pokemon like Weezing and Jellicent can effectively be trapped by it due to Stakeout; if they don't have a teammate that can stomach a Stakeout-boosted Dark Pulse, they will need to sack something (often the mon that is in right now). This opens things up for strong Physical attackers like the Silvallies and Ninjask.

This trapping can be seen in Turn 14 of bugzinator vs Ho3nConfirm3d; although Ho3n's Rotom-Frost poses a big threat once it kills Escavalier, Ho3n is forced to throw it out once Thievul safely gets in against it due to his lack of a Dark resist.

However, Thievul isn't at the top of the meta; it has a few problems, most notably its inability to force out neutral targets that can hit it back with some power. One example is the Cyberodin vs pokeaim game; although Aim has no Dark resist, his two Ghosts outspeed and threaten Thievul, and the other four Pokemon are able to take a non-Stakeout boosted Dark Pulse respectably well while hitting it hard in return.

Thievul @ Choice Specs
Ability: Stakeout
EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Dark Pulse
- Psychic
- Burning Jealousy
- Parting Shot / Knock Off

POINTS TO CONSIDER:
- Will Thievul remain the preeminent special wallbreaker to take advantage of passive walls like Weezing and Jellicent? We have seen Rotom and Clawitzer occupy this role in prior weeks; will they reemerge this week?
- Will we see other offensive Dark types taking advantage of the lack of Dark resists? Silvally-Dark is the only other prominent one; I've experimented with Liepard some myself, and others could theoretically have some promise.

I hope you all enjoyed and learned from reading this!!

Week 7:
[RAT] bugzinator vs Kushalos [LEV]
[MAM] Ho3nConfirm3d vs Jrdn [SER]
[NAG] elodin vs GW [AST]
[COB] Sjneider vs CyberOdin:cross: [BUS]
[LIN] Realistic Waters vs aim [TAI]

Bugzinator v Kushalos and Realistic Waters vs aim both have the potential to be season-highlight matches; those 4 players have the top 4 records right now, each at 4-2 or above. I'm looking forward to some excellent games from them and the rest of the NU field!

Expulso · Oct 18, 2020

Week 7:
[RAT] bugzinator vs Kushalos [LEV]
[MAM] Ho3nConfirm3d vs Jrdn [SER]
[NAG] elodin vs GW [AST]
[COB] Sjneider vs CyberOdin:cross: [BUS]
[LIN] Realistic Waters vs aim [TAI]

Week 7 Snake

Code:

+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Silvally           |    7 |  70.00% |  42.86% |
| 2    | Mudsdale           |    5 |  50.00% |  60.00% |
| 3    | Ninjask            |    4 |  40.00% |  75.00% |
| 4    | Rotom              |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 4    | Vanilluxe          |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 4    | Clefairy           |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 4    | Whimsicott         |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 4    | Sandslash-Alola    |    3 |  30.00% |   0.00% |
| 9    | Ferroseed          |    2 |  20.00% | 100.00% |
| 9    | Persian-Alola      |    2 |  20.00% | 100.00% |
| 9    | Cramorant          |    2 |  20.00% | 100.00% |
| 9    | Clawitzer          |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 9    | Miltank            |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 9    | Trevenant          |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 9    | Rapidash           |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 9    | Escavalier         |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 9    | Duraludon          |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 9    | Jellicent          |    2 |  20.00% |   0.00% |
| 9    | Weezing            |    2 |  20.00% |   0.00% |
| 9    | Gallade            |    2 |  20.00% |   0.00% |
| 21   | Stunfisk-Galar     |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 21   | Throh              |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 21   | Lanturn            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 21   | Piloswine          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 21   | Gastrodon          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |

Silvally breakdown:
- Dragon: 3 (kushalos, ho3n, rw) - 0-3
- Poison: 2 (bugzinator, aim) - 2-0
- Steel: 1 (CyberOdin) - 0-1
- Normal: 1 (Sjneider) - 1-0

Cumulative stats are updated; view them here.

I'll do a breakdown of trends and such tomorrow!

Meri Berry · Oct 21, 2020

Hi, I'm back again with another short analysis post on the week. I'll just make this short and touch on a couple things.

There was a lot less Escavalier :escavalier:

this week, with the mon dropping to 2 uses from the 5 there were last week. One could attribute this to the massive amounts of prep that it recieved last week, resulting in the ridiculously low 20% win rate that it had less week and overall being a risky pick due to this. Also worth noting is that both of the Escavaliers that were run this week were defensive, with rw running Leftovers and jrdn (presumably) running Assault Vest. However, inversely, there was less prep for Escavalier this week (bar the fantastic Duraludon set shown by aim), with only 2 instances of Rapidash :rapidash:

compared to the 5 used last week, and many mons that are abusable by Escavalier like Clefairy :clefairy:

and Vanilluxe :vanilluxe:

seeing a massive rise in popularity this week as compared to the last. Is this trend solely because of last week's preperation for the threat, or is Escavalier not as scary as people think it is?

This meta has also shifted in a way that I believe brought out the best of two mons last week that were used together to form a pretty good defensive core: Persian-Alola :persian-alola:

and Cramorant :cramorant:

. There has been a lot less Ribombee and overall fast fairy usage due to the frequency of not only offensive steel types but mons such as Rapidash :rapidash:

and Ninjask :ninjask:

being top threats of the metagame. This has led to Persian-Alola being used again, with the threats that invalidated it becoming worse in the meta. Also, the need for defoggers in the tier (other than Silvally :silvally:

forms) plus the rise of offensive water types such as Clawitzer :clawitzer:

has led to Cramorant's success, being a reliable check to such threats as Ninetales and Clawitzer with its natural special bulk and having overall good typing for the meta (bar the 4x electric weakness).

Quick thoughts on some last mons; Silvally-Dragon :silvally-dragon:

went 0-3 this week, with 2 out of the 3 of these being Swords Dance sets. Is special Dragon-vally more consistent, was this just a bad week for the mon, or is it just a bad pokemon entirely? Similar stats show for Weezing :weezing:

and Jellicent :jellicent:

, which are often shown as great defensive glue but ended up falling flat this week. People have been heralding Trevenant :trevenant:

as a great band breaker against common balance cores, and the elodin vs. GW game showcased that well; I'm still skeptical, but its shown to have a solid niche in the metagame.

Finally, please stop using Sandslash-Alola :sandslash-alola:

, it's really not a good pokemon. How dire does a tier's removal have to be to resort to using this?

Also, shoutouts to Expulso for continuing to post the stats and keeping this thread alive.

poh · Oct 21, 2020

Just some quick summaries of the games. I'm definitely not in the position to tell people where to improve etc but to fill this thread a bit i thought id share my view.

[RAT] bugzinator vs Kushalos [LEV]

Here we saw clawitzer doing its thing again breaking cores apart. I assume bugzinator used an expert belt variant which is actually a really good item so props to him/his builder for that.

[MAM] Ho3nConfirm3d vs Jrdn [SER]

To everyone's big surprise Ho3n brought a quirky HO. Jokes aside I do think Ho3n needs to switch it up in the builder if he wants to grab a last couple of Ws. jrdn never really looked like losing that game with mudsdale and alolan persian standing their ground.

[NAG] elodin vs GW [AST]

elodin brought jrdn's team from last week and gave GW a masterclass on how to abuse Trevenant.

[COB] Sjneider vs CyberOdin:cross: [BUS]

Sjneider once told me he'd never use ferroseed ever cause its a big momentum loser. Maybe to his surprise it did a very good job at setting up the win with a crucial midgame spike and leech seed shenanigans. Scarf silvally normal was a cool pick as speed control. I think CyberOdin's team was a bit too vulnerable to hazards and when jelli got in the game it was kinda late to pull it back for him.

[LIN] Realistic Waters vs aim [TAI]

rw brought a very rw team with specs gastro and looked like taking it home but then the infamous iron defense duraludon p much sealed the win for aim. This set continues to do well in the current meta and people should use it more, very cool wincon.

Tournament Smogon Snake Draft IV: NU Discussion

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PMPL Champions 2022' ZU GOD\NU GOAT

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