Smogon Snake Draft IV - Week 4

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MajorBowman

MajorBowman

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>Spreadsheet<
> Schedule <
Shoutouts: Ticken for the sheet improvements and Serene Grace for the schedule sheet!​

Tournament Rules and General Guidelines

Matchups:


Sky Tower Lindworms (6) vs (4) Lanakila Nagas

OU: Jytcampbell vs Sacri'
OU: Eo Ut Mortus vs Storm Zone
OU: Ewin vs ima
OU: Garay oak vs robjr
DOU: umbreon098 vs Memoric
UU: Poek vs SoulWind
RU: Pepeduce vs atomicllamas
NU: Realistic Waters vs elodin
PU: TJ vs false
LC: dcae vs Ninjadog



Celadon City Cobras (2) vs (8) Rumble Hall Rattlers

OU: 1 True Lycan vs Fear
OU: FMG vs lax
OU: Steve Angello vs Kebab mlml
OU: mncmt vs Samqian
DOU: Qwello Lee vs Ezrael
UU: Lilburr vs CBU
RU: HANTSUKI vs Ajna
NU: Sjneider vs bugzinator
PU: Xiri vs Vulpix03
LC: Shrug vs Serene Grace


Ambrette Astrotias (4) vs (6) Shinto Ruin Serpents

OU: BIHI vs Star
OU: Raiza vs Vaboh
OU: Finchinator vs watashi
OU: Tace vs Tamahome
DOU: Paraplegic vs DLT JRL BELL
UU: Accelgor vs Askov
RU: Feliburn vs Nat
NU: GW vs Jrdn
PU: keppy vs obii
LC: LilyAC vs Mazinger


Lake of Rage Leviathans (5) vs (5) Berry Forest Bushmasters

OU: Rexus vs Santu
OU: BK vs Lopunny Kicks
OU: John W vs frisoeva
OU: ramboss vs Bloody alfa
DOU: Nails vs qsns
UU: hs vs Ramolost
RU: odr vs roman
NU: Kushalos vs CyberOdin✝
PU: Hamhamhamhamham vs soulgazer
LC: Xizaaa vs Kingler


Black City Mambas (5) vs (5) Terminus Taipans

OU: xray vs High Impulse
OU: Gefährlicher Random vs le LLiolae
OU: ZDen vs Eeveeto
OU: Relous vs Void
DOU: Frania vs Kiichikos
UU: Sabella vs Adaam
RU: Charmflash vs Expulso
NU: Ho3nConfirm3d vs aim
PU: Ktütverde vs tlenit
LC: Wail Wailord vs Osh​

Deadline will be September 27th, 9:00 PM GMT-4.
 
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Rewer

Rewer

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blank

is a Community Contributor Alumnus
did not beat the ape last week.
Sky Tower Lindworms (4) vs (6) Lanakila Nagas

OU: Jytcampbell vs Sacri'
OU: Eo Ut Mortus vs Storm Zone
OU: Ewin vs ima
OU: Garay oak vs robjr
DOU: umbreon098 vs Memoric
UU: Poek vs SoulWind
RU: Pepeduce vs atomicllamas
NU: Realistic Waters vs elodin
PU: TJ vs false
LC: dcae vs Ninjadog

Celadon City Cobras (6) vs (4) Rumble Hall Rattlers

OU: 1 True Lycan vs Fear
OU: FMG vs lax
OU: Steve Angello vs Kebab mlml
OU: mncmt vs Samqian
DOU: Qwello Lee vs Ezrael
UU: Lilburr vs CBU
RU: snaga vs Ajna
NU: Sjneider vs bugzinator
PU: Xiri vs Vulpix03
LC: Shrug vs Serene Grace

Ambrette Astrotias (6) vs (3) Shinto Ruin Serpents

OU: BIHI vs Star
OU: Raiza vs Vaboh
OU: Finchinator vs watashi
OU: Tace vs Tamahome
DOU: Paraplegic vs DLT JRL BELL
UU: Accelgor vs Askov
RU: Feliburn vs Nat
NU: GW vs Jrdn
PU: keppy vs obii
LC: LilyAC vs Mazinger

Lake of Rage Leviathans (7) vs (3) Berry Forest Bushmasters

OU: Rexus vs Santu
OU: BK vs Lopunny Kicks
OU: John W vs frisoeva
OU: ramboss vs Bloody alfa
DOU: Nails vs qsns
UU: hs vs Ramolost
RU: odr vs roman
NU: Kushalos vs CyberOdin✝
PU: Hamhamhamhamham vs soulgazer
LC: Xizaaa vs Kingler

Black City Mambas (5) vs (5) Terminus Taipans

OU: xray vs High Impulse
OU: Gefährlicher Random vs dice
OU: ZDen vs Eeveeto
OU: Relous vs Void
DOU: Frania vs Kiichikos
UU: Sabella vs Adaam
RU: Charmflash vs Expulso
NU: Ho3nConfirm3d vs aim
PU: Ktütverde vs tlenit
LC: Wail Wailord vs Osh
 
Dread Arceus

Dread Arceus

total cockhead
I'm an LC main so I'll mostly be focusing on that for predictions:
Eo Ut Mortus vs Storm Zone
Ewin vs ima
mncmt vs samqian
GW vs Jrdn
Charmflash vs Expulso

These LC predictions are based on objective evidence gathered over the last few weeks, please like and subscribe for more
 

Nalorium

is a Tutoris a Community Contributoris a Tiering Contributor
Predicts:
Good Luck to everyone

Sky Tower Lindworms (6) vs (4) Lanakila Nagas

OU: Jytcampbell vs Sacri' (60/40
OU: Eo Ut Mortus vs Storm Zone (60/40)
OU: Ewin vs ima (35/65)
OU: Garay oak vs robjr (51/49)
DOU: umbreon098 vs Memoric (45/55)
UU: Poek vs SoulWind (30/70)
RU: Pepeduce vs atomicllamas (65/35)
NU: Realistic Waters vs elodin (60/40)
PU: TJ vs false (55/45)
LC: dcae vs Ninjadog (35/65)



Celadon City Cobras (5) vs (5) Rumble Hall Rattlers

OU: 1 True Lycan vs Fear (65/35)
OU: FMG vs lax (49/51)
OU: Steve Angello vs Kebab mlml (35/65)
OU: mncmt vs Samqian (60/40)
DOU: Qwello Lee vs Ezrael (45/55)
UU: Lilburr vs CBU (45/55)
RU: snaga vs Ajna (51/49)
NU: Sjneider vs bugzinator (55/45)
PU: Xiri vs Vulpix03 (70/30)
LC: Shrug vs Serene Grace (45/55)


Ambrette Astrotias (7) vs (3) Shinto Ruin Serpents

OU: BIHI vs Star (35/65)
OU: Raiza vs Vaboh (60/40)
OU: Finchinator vs watashi (49/51)
OU: Tace vs Tamahome (55/45)
DOU: Paraplegic vs DLT JRL BELL (49/51)
UU: Accelgor vs Askov (65/35)
RU: Feliburn vs Nat (70/30)
NU: GW vs Jrdn (51/49)
PU: keppy vs obii (55/45)
LC: LilyAC vs Mazinger (60/40)


Lake of Rage Leviathans (5) vs (5) Berry Forest Bushmasters

OU: Rexus vs Santu (45/55)
OU: BK vs Lopunny Kicks (40/60)
OU: John W vs frisoeva (70/30)
OU: ramboss vs Bloody alfa (45/55)
DOU: Nails vs qsns (51/49)
UU: hs vs Ramolost (55/45)
RU: odr vs roman (60/40)
NU: Kushalos vs CyberOdin✝ (65/35)
PU: Hamhamhamhamham vs soulgazer (30/70)
LC: Xizaaa vs Kingler (49/51)


Black City Mambas (5) vs (5) Terminus Taipans

OU: xray vs High Impulse (60/40)
OU: Gefährlicher Random vs dice (45/55)
OU: ZDen vs Eeveeto (45/55)
OU: Relous vs Void (55/45)
DOU: Frania vs Kiichikos (49/51)
UU: Sabella vs Adaam (35/65)
RU: Charmflash vs Expulso (60/40)
NU: Ho3nConfirm3d vs aim (51/49)
PU: Ktütverde vs tlenit (55/45)
LC: Wail Wailord vs Osh (:wail:/0)
 
Last edited:
IPF

IPF

sundown
is a Tiering Contributor
9/18 last week (yikes), 32/56 overall. Bushmasters-Nagas series really killed me lmao. Some interesting results last week so let's get into it

SS OU: Jytcampbell vs Sacri' - Starting off with a tough one, both players have been solid so far but gut says Sacri takes it
SS OU: Eo Ut Mortus vs Storm Zone - If this was anyone else I'd probably bold Storm, but Eo has been exceptional in the last month. Expect at least one GWeezing this game
SS OU: Ewin vs ima - I've predicted Ewin incorrectly every week so far which is nice (screw you), he's bounced back nicely but ima is looking like he's on pace to repeat last years run
SS OU: Garay oak vs robjr - Think rob will put in a good performance here although this could go either way, Garay has had a ridiculously tough schedule and has played fairly well

SS OU: 1 True Lycan vs Fear - I don't have enough confidence in SS Fear to bold him against someone who's been really solid as of late
SS OU: FMG vs lax - lax is lax
SS OU: Steve Angello vs Kebab mlml - The Italian magic might just be wearing off a little, but I think Kebab will bounce back this week
SS OU: mncmt vs Samqian - mncmt put in a strong showing last week and is proving to be one of the best players in the pool, tough to predict against him

SS OU: BIHI vs Star - Man this one is weird. BIHI played a great game last week and in most cases I'd bold him but I just can't see Star starting 0-4
SS OU: Raiza vs Vaboh - Happy to see Vaboh get his shot here but Raiza is just really really good right now, not gonna predict against him
SS OU: Finchinator vs watashi - Finch hasn't played particularly badly and has gotten fairly unlucky but watashi has just been dominant so far
SS OU: Tace vs Tamahome - I think I've predicted against Tama every week LOL. Man's a legend and has gotten some impressive wins thus far but once again I'm gonna go against him since Tace has been outstanding in SS

SS OU: Rexus vs Santu - Italian showdown 1, Rexus finally played a game but 1 win isn't enough to persuade me to pick against Santu who has been on fire in all tours
SS OU: BK vs Lopunny Kicks - Italian showdown 2, I find this one more difficult to predict. Punny hasn't been as dominant as I would've expected going into this tour but I do think he'll win this one, even if BK has been solid so far
SS OU: John W vs frisoeva - Both players picked up their first win last week but John has been the more convincing player
SS OU: ramboss vs Bloody alfa - In a tournament where everyone has bringing the same sand balances and ugly teams ramboss has been a breath of fresh air, alfa hasn't started this tour well and while he may be more proven in SS, I'm just biased to the more creative user

SS OU: xray vs High Impulse - xray got his first win immediately after winning a Smogon Tour week so things seem to be looking up for one of the highest regarded players in this tournament, gonna go with him
SS OU: Gefährlicher Random vs dice - If dice loses here I don't think I'll bold him again for the rest of the tour, he was pretty unlucky with a crit on his Gastrodon last week but just in general hasn't been as good as we expected, I will predict a bounce back game here though
SS OU: ZDen vs Eeveeto - ZDen picked up a great win against Tace last week but Eeveeto has been strong so far
SS OU: Relous vs Void - Man Taipans last OU slot is just unfortunate, really hope they manage to pull something together but getting a win or two out of this slot would probably be considered a success at this rate

BONUS PREDICT:
UU: hs vs Ramolost

Good luck to everyone!
 
Expulso

Expulso

Morse code, if I'm talking I'm clicking
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only did reasoning for tiers i know (and lc for some reason??)

Sky Tower Lindworms (6) vs (3) Lanakila Nagas

OU: Jytcampbell vs Sacri'
OU: Eo Ut Mortus vs Storm Zone
OU: Ewin vs ima
OU: Garay oak vs robjr
DOU: umbreon098 vs Memoric go umby '-' heat mu between the two undefeated players, gl both, dou is insane to watch LOL i love it
UU: Poek vs SoulWind
RU: Pepeduce vs atomicllamas -- based on last week alone I think llamas would be favored, his team wk3 was a lot better than pepe's, which 1. had no scarfer (or used scarf lycanroc which seems bad), 2. had lycanroc as only fire resist, and 3. had no bulky water, meaning he'd get torn apart by inteleon. however, I think pepeduce is a better player and am predicting him to bounce back in this meta, coming up with better techs this week. if he doesn't, I'll be a lot more confident in llamas for the rest of this tour.
NU: Realistic Waters vs elodin - Realistic Waters is off to a 3-0 start, which is impressive even though 1 of those games would almost certainly have been lost if not for the opponent timing out. elodin had a misstep vs Ho3n that turned a near-guaranteed win into a 50-50 (which he won) and lost vs CyberOdin, which makes me inclined to pick RW even though I think he hasn't been as dominant as his record shows.
PU: TJ vs false - the founder of pop smoke has been pretty in touch with the PU meta, so despite his 1-2 record I trust that he'll adapt more quickly to yesterday's klinklang/bouff bans than the nagas' pu builders will.
LC: dcae vs Ninjadog - both have impressive 2-1 records but Ninjadog dropped one to wail whereas dcae lost to only Serene Grace, top 1/2 in pool, making me rate dcae's record higher. I dont know LC enough to say anything besides that

Celadon City Cobras (3) vs (6) Rumble Hall Rattlers

OU: 1 True Lycan vs Fear
OU: FMG vs lax
OU: Steve Angello vs Kebab mlml
OU: mncmt vs Samqian - will be great game for sure
DOU: Qwello Lee vs Ezrael
UU: Lilburr vs CBU - close to even, both have looked really good (despite CBU's 1-2 start the game vs Adaam really could have gone either way). Both had 1 off week in builder (cbu wk1, lily wk2), but if the MU is even either player can win this one. CBU has more experience, though, which will help in the close game this probably will be. He also really needs to win this to avoid starting 1-3, although Lilburr will definitely still be super motivated, though. Slight edge cbu, huge game for both these players.
RU: snaga vs Ajna - in this mu i think im obligated to bold the person who beat me? ajna has seemed to develop his gen 8 ru style, super durable teams capable of handling all the major setup threats while outlasting the opponent. i was not super impressed by snaga's team choice vs me, being very weak to inteleon is a major problem right now (and ajna's teams have all been extremely solid versus threats of this caliber). Snaga's team also didn't have that much wallbreaking power, depending on a non-boosting item Sandslash + trick Xatu to make any sort of progress versus bulkier teams. Other picks of his, like Persian-Alola, have also had a good offense MU while being less useful versus the teams Ajna likes to bring. I think Ajna will either bring fat that Snaga can't break, or bring an offensive threat he lacks counterplay to.
NU: Sjneider vs bugzinator - even, sorry :/ I like both of their playstyles and build styles a lot (except for Neider's no dragon resist team vs GW, but his team vs Aim looked far more solid and I feel he has now adapted to this new meta). Neider winning as bugzi dropped one might lead me to bold neider out of momentum, but 1) Neider was in a very favorable position but then somehow let it come down to a Dual Wingbeat roll, and 2) I'm also fully confident that bugzinator can bounce back against any opponent. Even on this one, should be a really good match.
PU: Xiri vs Vulpix03 - Xiri is really good at PU, whereas roseybear has cooled off a lot since the Open run and now their team seems to lack PU building support. Big edge
LC: Shrug vs Serene Grace - serene is a top 1 or 2 player this pool, i would favor him in any matchup except for a tossup against Lily Air Conditioner. Shrug is 0-3, so he could whip out something unconventional for this matchup with a 'nothing to lose' mentality. Confident serene can handle it, though

Ambrette Astrotias (6) vs (3) Shinto Ruin Serpents

OU: BIHI vs Star
OU: Raiza vs Vaboh
OU: Finchinator vs watashi
OU: Tace vs Tamahome
DOU: Paraplegic vs DLT JRL BELL
UU: Accelgor vs Askov
RU: Feliburn vs Nat - feli has been very good and very consistent, happy for you bro <3 i think that will continue this game vs Nat, whose annoyed-ness with this meta (I feel the same way tbh) means she probably isn't as in touch with current trends as Feli is. getting her only win with sun also doesn't inspire faith in her ability to win a standard game in this meta. Nat's a very good player overall, but Feli is skilled enough that he likely won't be outplayed, and with his excellent teambuilding I expect him to continue his recent success.
NU: GW vs Jrdn - despite having the two NUTLs as support I initially didn't think Jrdn's team choice has been very good. It was sort of amusing that he brought 0 flying resists week 1 and then got swept by Ninjask, much to the chargin of Ninjask disbelievers rozes and eternally. Meanwhile, GW came very close to winning his debut, missing a Draco vs aim that would have made it a very close endgame. HOWEVER... things have changed since then, in both the tier and their . I liked Jrdn's Week 3 team a lot, losing only to an extremely unexpected tech - Kushalos' Salac Berry Gallade. GW's team, on the other hand, seemed to lack both immediate power and durability, making me think he could be outlasted / unable to break a team like Jrdn's from last week.
PU: keppy vs obii - unfortunately for my friend keppy he's had a rough start to this tour, going 1-2 and his one win, vs tlenit, would have absolutely been a loss if tlenit's Mr. Mime-G landed a +2 Focus Blast on Klinklang. That can be excused by the fact that he's had to play an absolute gauntlet of opponents the first 3 weeks: i'm not sure anyone would be expected to go positive against tlenit, xiri, and ktutverde (who actually showed up!). However, the other 2 games haven't really been close for keppy, who had some particularly confusing plays vs Xiri (in particular, switching out a +2 Lurantis that threatened Xiri's entire team). obii has started 3-0, and while this comes versus a less difficult schedule than keppy's i still think he's played well and been good in the builder. i'll be cheering for keppy, though!
LC: LilyAC vs Mazinger - idc that she lost to wail (tho props to him), lily is still a top 2 player in this pool, nice of mazinger to get on the board last week but i definitely wouldnt favor him vs lily.

Lake of Rage Leviathans (4) vs (5) Berry Forest Bushmasters

OU: Rexus vs Santu
OU: BK vs Lopunny Kicks - huge week for LopKicks, needs to bounce back here
OU: John W vs frisoeva
OU: ramboss vs Bloody alfa - what I said for lopkicks is kinda true for all of the bushmasters' OU core, which seems awesome but has put up records below their potential so far. going 2-0 and then only losing to watashi makes me think ramboss can pull off the win. idk where it'll come but i'm sure a few of the bushmasters' OU players will rally this week.
DOU: Nails vs qsns - nails has better record but played a weaker schedule whereas qsns only lost to the 2 undefeated ppl. seems even, esp since both were high in PRs, can't wait to watch this intense DOU match and have no fuckin clue what's going on
UU: hs vs Ramolost - I've heard hs threw together a shitton of builds for the leviathans' uu slot in past weeks, and as a sub myself I know it feels a lot better to be building for yourself as player than to be testing a lot of teams for someone else. it gives you a more focused idea of what you want to use. this may be a bit of an upset pick because Ramo is coming off of a huge win vs SoulWind, but I think hs can pull off an impressive win in his debut.
RU: odr vs roman - both seem to have a good understanding of the tier and seem likely to bounce back from a 1-2 start, though one will have to be 1-3 after this game. Roman has shown the ability to innovate in builder with his week 1 team vs ajna; although he then brought sun wk2 and standard wk3, from the teams i've seen I have more faith in his ability to innovate his way into a good matchup. ODR's team this week followed a very similar structure to his Week 2 team [offensive psychic-tang-bulky water-fire-fighting-steel]. He'll need to change that up to get a win here. predicting roman based on teambuilder/MU, it would be pretty much even in an even mu. This game is a big test for ODR, i'm hoping he delivers an impressive win this week. '-' (yes i copy-pasted this from ru thread)
NU: Kushalos vs CyberOdin✝ - Kushalos' Salac Gallade sweep was absolutely sick, oh my god what a cool tech.CyberOdin has brought some pretty solid teams and could easily be 2-1 if he kept a closer eye on the timer week 2, and he definitely seems to be outplaying his last place power ranking. However, that's not enough for me to bold him vs Kushalos, who should pretty much be expected to win every week he shows up.
PU: Hamhamhamhamham vs soulgazer
LC: Xizaaa vs Kingler
 
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