Smogon Snake Draft IV - Week 8

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MajorBowman

hello fellow young people
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>Spreadsheet<
> Schedule <
Shoutouts: Ticken for the sheet improvements and Serene Grace for the schedule sheet!

Tournament Rules and General Guidelines

Matchups:


Sky Tower Lindworms (4) vs (6) Celadon City Cobras

OU: Garay oak vs 1 True Lycan
OU: Eo Ut Mortus vs mncmt
OU: beatiful vs TPP
OU: Jytcampbell vs HANTSUKI
DOU: umbreon098 vs Qwello Lee
UU: Moutemoute vs Lilburr
RU: Pepeduce vs snaga
NU: Poek vs Sjneider
PU: TJ vs Xiri
LC: dcae vs Z Strats


Ambrette Astrotias (2) vs (8) Lake of Rage Leviathans

OU: Finchinator vs Rexus
OU: Raiza vs BK
OU: BIHI vs John W
OU: Tace vs ramboss
DOU: Paraplegic vs Nails
UU: Accelgor vs hs
RU: Feliburn vs the pharoah
NU: GW vs Kushalos
PU: z0mOG vs Hamhamhamhamham
LC: LilyAC vs Xizaaa


Rumble Hall Rattlers (6) vs (4) Shinto Ruin Serpents

OU: talah vs Vaboh
OU: lax vs Tamahome
OU: Samqian vs Star
OU: Kebab mlml vs watashi
DOU: Ezrael vs Mishimono
UU: CBU vs Askov
RU: Ajna vs Nat
NU: bugzinator vs Jrdn
PU: Vulpix03 vs obii
LC: Serene Grace vs tko


Lanakila Nagas (4) vs (6) Terminus Taipans

OU: ima vs dice
OU: Sacri' vs High Impulse
OU: Regnite vs le LLiolae
OU: robjr vs Eeveeto
DOU: Tenzai vs Kiichikos
UU: SoulWind vs Adaam
RU: atomicllamas vs Expulso
NU: elodin vs aim
PU: Kink vs tlenit
LC: Ninjadog vs Osh


Black City Mambas (9) vs (1) Berry Forest Bushmasters

OU: Bobby Dagen vs Leo
OU: xray vs Santu
OU: LittleBigPlanet2 vs soulgazer
OU: Gefährlicher Random vs qsns
DOU: Frania vs MetalGro$$
UU: Sabella vs frisoeva
RU: eifo vs Ramolost
NU: KingKdot vs Sensei Axew
PU: Ktütverde vs pokemonisfun
LC: Wail Wailord vs CyberOdin✝

Deadline will be October 25th, 9:00 PM GMT-4.
 
Last edited:

Leo

after hours
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bored at work so why not

OU: Garay oak vs 1 True Lycan - Garay has been going at it since the start of wcop in ss and while decent hes struggled against some of the stronger players in the pool. Hes had some good moments so its hard to pinpoint exactly whats holding him back other than a tough schedule. 1TL is a lot more established in current gen and has been on a tear since spl, solid team choices and solid play have raised his stock significantly, its hard to see him lose here
OU: Eo Ut Mortus vs mncmt - highlight of the week in ou probably, mncmt went god mode this year even after some funny spl games and eo is back in snake 3 form and will probably not drop more than 1 more game in the remainder of the tournament. Its hard to pick a favorite here so I’ll trust eo to bring something cool and win
OU: beatiful vs TPP - 2 late subs sitting at 2-1 each with different upside. beas very dedicated to ss and has a good individual track record whereas tpp hasnt found much success but has been a tournament staple since last wcop and has slowly been overcoming his infamous snake 3 run. I think tpp still needs to refine his rather safe playstyle and I trust beas play more even if hes the more likely player to turn off his brain for a turn or 2
OU: Jytcampbell vs HANTSUKI - despite his predictable team choices joshys solid, I have no idea how much experience hantsuki has in ss but I assume its gonna be very little, doubt jyt will let this one slip out

OU: Finchinator vs Rexus - I was never too high on Rexus but hes been putting up good results as of late, 3-0 in wcop poffs into 4-1 is a p good streak and while the italian influence in his team choices is more than evident this isnt something that I see holding him back, specially since his opponent is finch, who is doing about as well as expected, not amazing but someone you can count on going positive in current gen. Rexus should be a clear favorite but something tells me finch is gonna bring a funny team this week, could go either way really
OU: Raiza vs BK - 2 of the better italians in this tournament, both sitting at 5-2 and each with a more identifiable style than Rexus, I like Raizas teams a bit more than what BK has been bringing but at the same time I feel like the Astros core other than maybe BIHI kinda bring the same teams so theres potential for explotation there with Tricking and John W on the levis. I guess if I had to pick a favorite itd be leleb but not by much
OU: BIHI vs John W - John W’s underperformance so far has been a bit surprising, specially considering how well hes doing in olt and stour simultaneously. I think his safe team style is very effective against the less experienced opponents but has held him back against tougher opponents with strong building support. That on top of some ocasional question marks in his gameplay like vs mncmt or friso make this a hard bold, BIHIs no slouch and he has shown he can go beast mode when necessary to make the most out of his threats like in his game vs bea. Im gonna trust John W to finish with more than just a decent record and this is a win he’d need for that
OU: Tace vs ramboss - ramboss is wild, almost exclusively uses offense and pilots it well. I think Tace has overcome some of his previous shortcomings in past teamtours and has what it takes to beat someone as wild as ramboss, boring teams but solid play

OU: talah vs Vaboh - talah ended bks career last week after greed rocks were punished but hes still talah so I cant confidently bold him after 1 win. Vaboh has a slightly better track record and while hes had some missteps here and there 2-2 is decent enough to be slightly favored here
OU: lax vs Tamahome - I didnt realize tama was such a madman until eo called him the biggest clicker on smogon, it’s hard to predict whats gonna come out of 2 of the most aggressive players in the pool matched up against each other so Im going with lax despite this not being his greatest tour so far
OU: Samqian vs Star - may be biased but I think sammys pretty good, he has decent variety in his team choices and plays well. Star was coming off a beast spl until he flopped in wcop and he hasnt quite recovered yet. With a more tame schedule than sammy its pretty surprising to see them with the same record at 3-4, which also means whoever loses this will finish the regular season negative. I think both will give their best in this situation but my gut tells me sammy will prevail
OU: Kebab mlml vs watashi - kebab usually brings standard teams and wins games but this snake has been p hard for him, between some really tough matchups and not enough play to overcome them hes struggled a fair amount. flcl is probably not doing as well as most expected but record aside I dont think hes much different than he was in spl and I wouldnt be surprised to see his consistent style take him on a final win streak to improve his record

OU: ima vs dice - not much to say about dice, he doesnt seem to be able to find his footing in the tier since snake started and now I doubt hes motivated enough to take down ima whos as dominant as last snake
OU: Sacri' vs High Impulse - High Impulse is a very dangerous players and he uses teams that favor his aggressiveness a lot, Im kinda surprised hes not positive but as seen in his game from last week he has his shortcomings in terms of play and aggression can always be taken advantage of, I think Sacris the type of player you cant get away with much vs, hes been solid and I expect him to take this without too much trouble
OU: Regnite vs Void - I dont think Void is very invested in this tour or ss, judging by the fact that he resorted to ho again last week against bea I dont expect much from him, tho now that his teams virtually out maybe he’ll get subbed out no idea, havent seen much from regnite in this tier but rooting for him anyway I think he’ll tryhard and take it
OU: robjr vs Eeveeto - very even matchup to me, I dont remember too many games from either but I do remember robjr having more success early on when he brought more experimental looking teams, maybe he’ll go back to that and find some success again. Eeveetos good but I think his comfort zone is starting to become more evident and thats starting to hold him back in the final stretch of the tour and something rob could take advantage of. I’ll go off that for this game but Eeveeto could very well take it

ah y vamos los gondras:bloblul:
 
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starry blanket

The Blanket
is a Community Contributor Alumnus
5-1 vs the ape... things have gotten wild in the tour with two teams out and the nagas losing a sizeable lead due to two unfortunate weeks. a whopping SEVEN teams are competing for those last three playoff spots, and at this rate, it's anyone's game.

predicts are a bit more detailed than usual:

Sky Tower Lindworms (5) vs (5) Celadon City Cobras

OU: Garay oak vs 1 True Lycan: both pretty solid, but lycan has been in much better form, especially as of late. looking at their MUs, both have faced a bunch of really impressive players so far, so 3-4 and 5-2 records respectively are definitely quite good. records and MUs don't tell the whole story, though. in the beginning of the tour, i thought lycan was playing pretty poorly honestly, but lately he seems to be looking better, giving him an edge in this one.

OU: Eo Ut Mortus vs mncmt: this is a very tough one to predict. both have similar records, both have drawn similarly hard MUs throughout the tour, both are R1 picks, both have been performing really well overall this tour, and both are just generally similar in skill. part of me wants to think that mncmt's playstyle would match up well vs eo's fat balances, but eo has been playing more aggressive this tour and mncmt has been playing more safe than usual. i think eo really wants to prove he's one of the absolute top dogs, so between that and his greater experience, i'll give him a slight edge on mnc.

OU: beatiful vs TPP: similarly skilled players imo. TPP has seemingly learned to manage his nerves on the big stage, and i am not sold on beautiful just yet.

OU: Jytcampbell vs HANTSUKI: this one is a total shot in the dark. hantsuki is probably a better player overall, but not by much. jyt has looked mostly solid this tour, not really much more to say.

DOU: umbreon098 vs Qwello Lee
UU: Moutemoute vs Lilburr
RU: Pepeduce vs snaga
NU: Realistic Waters vs Sjneider: really cool one
PU: TJ vs Xiri
LC: dcae vs Z Strats
Ambrette Astrotias (5) vs (5) Lake of Rage Leviathans

i want to start by saying there's a very common theme in these OU MUs: these two teams as a whole are very indicative of the playstyles and preferences of their leaders: the astrotias largely drafted consistent players who bring consistent teams and make "the right plays." the leviathans drafted a lot of aggressive players who are willing to bring anything... the types of guys who will risk their main wincon turn 5 just to stunt. these guys match up well vs the finchinators historically.

OU: Finchinator vs Rexus: finchinator has looked fine, whereas rexus has looked like a monster. finch's team choices are just too damn predictable, whereas rexus has shown he can use literally anything effectively. another big factor here is the playstyle MU: finch is really weak vs wildcard players like rexus. they will bring some dumb set he doesn't expect, or make an aggressive play when he believes they shouldn't, and it will tilt him off his game. most of these types of players aren't that good, so they usually end up throwing and finch is fine, but rexus is calculated in his aggression.

OU: Raiza vs BK: both have looked really nice. again, a common theme with leviathans OU is that they're absolute goons (except john LOL).
i think raiza is much better equipped to deal with these types given his experience on team italy. with that said, raiza's MUs have been pretty weak for the most part, whereas BK has faced a ton of high level players and talah. still, BK more or less threw last week, so who knows.

OU: BIHI vs John W: bihi has looked fine but come ON it's the goat!

OU: Tace vs ramboss: very tough one to call, as i do think ramboss is the type of player that matches up well vs tace, but i think tace has a much higher chance of being able to bring a foolproof team that can withstand any bullshit ramboss throws at him. i swear this isn't just midwest bias, we saw it with talah vs BK last week... i think a similar situation will play out here. literally like a 51/49 predict though.


DOU: Paraplegic vs Nails
UU: Accelgor vs hs
RU: Feliburn vs odr
NU: GW vs Kushalos
PU: z0mOG vs Hamhamhamhamham
LC: LilyAC vs Xizaaa
Rumble Hall Rattlers (6) vs (4) Shinto Ruin Serpents

OU: talah vs Vaboh: last week talah played pretty well vs a strong opponent with a playstyle that is difficult to beat in the builder, which is usually his strength. winning a MU like that gives me a lot more confidence in him, whereas vaboh has not looked particularly impressive. he's a solid enough player for the most part, but he's not there just yet.

OU: lax vs Tamahome: lax has been getting tougher MUs lately, and they have ended his undefeated start. lax is obviously a fantastic player, but perhaps he got too comfortable or something. tama has had some of the tougher draws of the tournament, and he has looked extremely impressive in most of them. while i do think lax is up there as a player, tama is probably around top 5 all time IMO. combine that, the recent performance trends, and the overall performance in their MUs... i think tama has a bit of an edge here. nonetheless, this is a super exciting MU between two extremely good players.

OU: Samqian vs Star: that's right... for the first time this tour, i am bolding star LOL. ok i think he had some good luck last week, but he also made some really impressive plays. perhaps that win could be a good way to turn his tour around... getting a MU like samqian is also a good way to continue that momentum. samqian is a fine player, but he has definitely had some issues this tournament. last week it was really apparent. basically, both these players have been having kinda rough tournaments, but i think star is gonna be more likely to turn it around here than sam.

OU: Kebab mlml vs watashi: FLCL has bounced back, whereas kebab has continued to perform poorly. i think it might be time for the rats to resume the exfeariment (TonyFlygon please approve of this pun).

DOU: Ezrael vs Mishimono
UU: CBU vs Askov
RU: Ajna vs Nat
NU: bugzinator vs Jrdn
PU: Vulpix03 vs obii
LC: Serene Grace vs tko
Lanakila Nagas (8) vs (2) Terminus Taipans

the nagas have been plagued with two weeks of misfortune, underperformances, and overperformers falling back to earth. matching up vs the tiepans gives them a good opportunity to stop tilting.

OU: ima vs dice: dice's play vs eo was way below his normal standard. his team is out, and he didn't seem to be that into it when his team was in, so... yeahhhh. ima is extremely impressive this tour, again riding one of his positive swings. i'm gonna call this one for him regardless of whether he plays dice or dice's likely substitute.

OU: Sacri' vs High Impulse: high impulse has not looked bad. he has definitely exceeded most ppl's expectations. sacri, however, is top 3 SS OU in this tournament. he has looked impressive week after week, and i don't think that's stopping anytime soon.

OU: Regnite vs Void: void is an overall better player, but regnite is solid and definitely has a better grasp of the tier. he's also gonna be way more motivated than void, giving him a considerable edge here.

OU: robjr vs Eeveeto: i swear to god i predict every eeveeto game wrong man. both of these guys are really really good, but i think rob is just a better player than eeveeto. eeveeto hasn't been using as many of his unmons as usual, but he's still performing decently, showing he's not just a gimmick player. still, i think rob's better, but this is a close one.

DOU: Memoric vs Kiichikos: memoric. bounce back bro. come on.
UU: SoulWind vs Adaam
RU: atomicllamas vs Expulso
NU: elodin vs aim
PU: Kink vs tlenit
LC: Ninjadog vs Osh

while i did predict 8-2, a lot of these MUs are fairly close, and the decider in many was "the taipans are out." if the taipans want to rally together to not be in 9th or 10th place at the end of the tour, this might be closer.
Black City Mambas (8) vs (2) Berry Forest Bushmasters

this MU is a pretty big blessing to get the mambas back on track. i think the team has potential and can make poffs, but last week was definitely a rough one...

OU: Bobby Dagen vs Leo: i really don't know much much rodri cares, and even though the bushmasters are out, i think leo wants to show people he's not just an NG inhabiting forum mainer or whatever.

OU: xray vs Santu: xray has been looking really good the last few weeks, whereas santu needed to be swapped out of OU + his team is out.

OU: LittleBigPlanet2 vs soulgazer: soulgazer did not look particularly hot in the lower tiers, so i don't expect him to do better in OU + his team is out. lbp2 has looked pretty good in his 3 games. i think he's actually really solid.

OU: Gefährlicher Random vs qsns: ok i swear i didn't lose steam on these writeups it's just that the bushmasters literally have a juggled lineup and they are out of the tour.

DOU: Frania vs MetalGro$$
UU: Sabella vs frisoeva
RU: eifo vs Ramolost: idfk shot in the dark
NU: KingKdot vs Sensei Axew
PU: Ktütverde vs pokemonisfun
LC: Wail Wailord vs CyberOdin✝
 

Nalorium

Nunca estoy abajo en las apuesta, y meno' en esta
is a Tutor
Hello it's me (again) :facepalm:


Sky Tower Lindworms (8) vs (2) Celadon City Cobras

OU: Garay oak vs 1 True Lycan (51/49)
OU: Eo Ut Mortus vs mncmt (60/40)
OU: beatiful vs TPP (51/49)
OU: Jytcampbell vs HANTSUKI (55/45)
DOU: umbreon098 vs Qwello Lee (65/35)
UU: Moutemoute vs Lilburr (40/60)
RU: Pepeduce vs snaga (40/60)
NU: Realistic Waters vs Sjneider (55/45)
PU: TJ vs Xiri (51/49)
LC: dcae vs Z Strats (70/30)


Ambrette Astrotias (6) vs (4) Lake of Rage Leviathans

OU: Finchinator vs Rexus (51/49)
OU: Raiza vs BK (40/60)
OU: BIHI vs John W (45/55)
OU: Tace vs ramboss (65/35)
DOU: Paraplegic vs Nails (35/65)
UU: Accelgor vs hs (60/40)
RU: Feliburn vs odr (65/35)
NU: GW vs Kushalos (40/60)
PU: z0mOG vs Hamhamhamhamham (51/49)
LC: LilyAC vs Xizaaa (60/40)


Rumble Hall Rattlers (7) vs (3) Shinto Ruin Serpents

OU: talah vs Vaboh (51/49)
OU: lax vs Tamahome (65/35)
OU: Samqian vs Star (45/55)
OU: Kebab mlml vs watashi (40/60)
DOU: Ezrael vs Mishimono (65/35)
UU: CBU vs Askov (60/40)
RU: Ajna vs Nat (55/45)
NU: bugzinator vs Jrdn (51/49)
PU: Vulpix03 vs obii (45/55)
LC: Serene Grace vs tko (70/30)


Lanakila Nagas (4) vs (6) Terminus Taipans

OU: ima vs dice (65/35)
OU: Sacri' vs High Impulse (60/40)
OU: Regnite vs Void (35/65)
OU: robjr vs Eeveeto (49/51)
DOU: Memoric vs Kiichikos (40/60)
UU: SoulWind vs Adaam (60/40)
RU: atomicllamas vs Expulso (40/60)
NU: elodin vs aim (35/65)
PU: Kink vs tlenit (40/60)
LC: Ninjadog vs Osh (60/40)


Black City Mambas (7) vs (3) Berry Forest Bushmasters

OU: Bobby Dagen vs Leo (49/51)
OU: xray vs Santu (55/45)
OU: LittleBigPlanet2 vs soulgazer (60/40)
OU: Gefährlicher Random vs qsns (65/35)
DOU: Frania vs MetalGro$$ (60/40)
UU: Sabella vs frisoeva (55/45)
RU: eifo vs Ramolost (45/55)
NU: KingKdot vs Sensei Axew (49/51)
PU: Ktütverde vs pokemonisfun (51/49)
LC: Wail Wailord vs CyberOdin:cross: (60/40)
 
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lydian

Formerly lyd
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Moderator
hey friends! similar to last spl, i made a little spreadsheet with all the possible outcomes for the week that could help teams figure out how things will be looking going into next week. i'll put everything on hide tags for those that get nervous with stuff like this (or just those don't want to see this for any reason). without further ado, here is the sheet!
i also worked on a little thing outlining all the possible scenarios for teams that could qualify this week, and what needs to happen for them to do so! i would have tried to do the same for teams that need to avoid being eliminated this week, but that one is a lot harder to do, and i have some irl obligations, so i'll save that for week 9 (which is much, much easier to do on the last week as opposed to the second-to-last). if anyone wants to calculate the outcomes for the teams risking elimination, though, by all means you have my encouragement! but without further ado, here's what some of the teams need to qualify on week 8:
:rayquaza:Lindworms:rayquaza:
The Lindworms are guaranteed in playoffs no matter what!

:arbok:Cobras:arbok:
If the Cobras win the week:
  • They qualify for playoffs if TWO of the following happens:
    • The Serpents vs. the Rattlers results in a win for the Rattlers AND the Astrotias vs. the Leviathans results in a tie.
    • The Mambas vs. the Bushmasters results in a win for the Bushmasters or a tie.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a win for the Taipans.
  • And the following DOESN'T happen:
    • The Serpents vs. the Rattlers results in a tie AND the Astrotias vs. the Leviathans results in a win for the Leviathans.

:milotic:Astrotias:milotic:
If the Astrotias win 10-0:
  • They qualify for playoffs if TWO of the following happens:
    • The Serpents vs. the Rattlers results in a win of 8-2 or better for the Serpents, or a win for the Rattlers.
    • The Mambas vs. the Bushmasters results in a win for the Bushmasters or a tie.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a win for the Taipans.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a tie, and the Cobras vs. the Lindworms results in a win for the Lindworms or a tie.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a win for the Nagas, and the Cobras vs. the Lindworms results in a win for the Lindworms.
If the Astrotias win 9-1:
  • They qualify for playoffs if TWO of the following happens:
    • The Serpents vs. the Rattlers results in a win of 9-1 or better for the Serpents, or a win for the Rattlers.
    • The Mambas vs. the Bushmasters results in a win for the Bushmasters or a tie.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a win for the Taipans of 7-3 or better.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a tie or a win for the Taipans of 6-4 or better, and the Cobras vs. the Lindworms results in a win for the Lindworms or a tie.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a win for the Nagas, and the Cobras vs. the Lindworms results in a win for the Lindworms.
If the Astrotias win 8-2:
  • They qualify for playoffs if TWO of the following happens:
    • The Serpents vs. the Rattlers results in a win of 10-0 for the Serpents, or a win for the Rattlers.
    • The Mambas vs. the Bushmasters results in a win for the Bushmasters.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a win for the Taipans of 8-2 or better.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a tie or a win for the Taipans of 6-4 or 7-3, and the Cobras vs. the Lindworms results in a win for the Lindworms or a tie.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a win for the Nagas, and the Cobras vs. the Lindworms results in a win for the Lindworms.
If the Astrotias win 7-3:
  • They qualify for playoffs if TWO of the following happens:
    • The Serpents vs. the Rattlers results in a win for the Rattlers.
    • The Mambas vs. the Bushmasters results in a win for the Bushmasters.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a win for the Taipans of 9-1 or better.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a tie or a win for the Taipans of 6-4, 7-3, or 8-2, and the Cobras vs. the Lindworms results in a win for the Lindworms or a tie.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a win for the Nagas, and the Cobras vs. the Lindworms results in a win for the Lindworms such that the sum of the differential of the Nagas and the Cobras doesn't reach +8 or higher.
If the Astrotias win 6-4:
  • They qualify for playoffs if TWO of the following happens:
    • The Serpents vs. the Rattlers results in a win for the Rattlers of 7-3 or better.
    • The Mambas vs. the Bushmasters results in a win for the Bushmasters.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a win for the Taipans of 10-0.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a tie or a win for the Taipans of 6-4, 7-3, 8-2, or 9-1, and the Cobras vs. the Lindworms results in a win for the Lindworms or a tie.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a win for the Nagas, and the Cobras vs. the Lindworms results in a win for the Lindworms such that the sum of the differential of the Nagas and the Cobras doesn't reach +4 or higher.

:thundurus-therian:Rattlers:thundurus-therian:
If the Rattlers win 10-0:
  • They qualify for playoffs if TWO of the following happens:
    • The Leviathans vs. the Astrotias results in a win for the Astrotias.
    • The Mambas vs. the Bushmasters results in a win for the Bushmasters.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a win for the Taipans of 9-1 or better.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a tie or a win for the Taipans of 6-4, 7-3, or 8-2, and the Cobras vs. the Lindworms results in a win for the Lindworms or a tie.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a win for the Nagas, and the Cobras vs. the Lindworms results in a win for the Lindworms such that the sum of the differential of the Nagas and the Cobras doesn't reach +8 or higher.
If the Rattlers win 9-1:
  • They qualify for playoffs if TWO of the following happens:
    • The Leviathans vs. the Astrotias results in a win for the Astrotias.
    • The Mambas vs. the Bushmasters results in a win for the Bushmasters.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a win for the Taipans of 10-0.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a tie or a win for the Taipans of 6-4, 7-3, 8-2, or 9-1, and the Cobras vs. the Lindworms results in a win for the Lindworms or a tie.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a win for the Nagas, and the Cobras vs. the Lindworms results in a win for the Lindworms such that the sum of the differential of the Nagas and the Cobras doesn't reach +4 or higher.
If the Rattlers win 8-2:
  • They qualify for playoffs if TWO of the following happens:
    • The Leviathans vs. the Astrotias results in a win for the Astrotias.
    • The Mambas vs. the Bushmasters results in a win for the Bushmasters.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a win for the Taipans or a tie, and the Cobras vs. the Lindworms results in a win for the Lindworms or a tie.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a win for the Nagas, and the Cobras vs. the Lindworms results in a win for the Lindworms such that the sum of the differential of the Nagas and the Cobras doesn't reach 0 or higher.
If the Rattlers win 7-3:
  • They qualify for playoffs if THREE of the following happens:
    • The Leviathans vs. the Astrotias results in a win for the Astrotias.
    • The Mambas vs. the Bushmasters results in a win for the Bushmasters.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a win for the Taipans or a tie, and the Cobras vs. the Lindworms results in a win for the Lindworms or a tie.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a win for the Nagas, and the Cobras vs. the Lindworms results in a win for the Lindworms such that the sum of the differential of the Nagas and the Cobras doesn't reach -4 or higher.
If the Rattlers win 6-4:
  • They qualify for playoffs if THREE of the following happens:
    • The Leviathans vs. the Astrotias results in a win for the Astrotias.
    • The Mambas vs. the Bushmasters results in a win for the Bushmasters.
    • The Nagas vs. the Taipans results in a win for the Taipans or a tie, and the Cobras vs. the Lindworms results in a win for the Lindworms or a tie.
please note that i am human, and thus error-prone! especially for the qualification scenarios, which i made almost entirely by hand, so if you notice anything wrong / off, please let me know! and please, always take what i say in this with a grain of salt, as i could have made a mistake somewhere. that's all for this week :) good luck to the teams and i'll be back next week with what every team needs to qualify for playoffs and all of that!
 
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bored at work x2

OU: Garay oak vs 1 True Lycan
OU: Eo Mortus vs mncmt
OU: beatiful vs TPP
OU: Jytcampbell vs HANTSUKI

the lindworms OU core has started to perform worse, and with cheatwin gone and beautiful subbed in, they don't really have any remidies for that here on out.
:super clown: :smogduck:


OU: Finchinator vs Rexus: Rexus has been On fire the whole tournament and has shown the few that did not believe in him that he is more than capable. On the other hand although finchinator has been a little less solid than rexus , he has more experience and might know how to take advantage of rexus' trends, honestly this one can go either way.

OU: Raiza vs BK: Two of the best player on the tour and 2 of the strongest italian players, this one can go either Way Too, but I think Bk has shown more variety in the build than raiza, so I'm going with Him.

OU: BIHI vs John W: BIHI is good and has some cool ideas on his build, but I think john is more solid and gonna take this one.

OU: Tace vs ramboss: Ramboss is my favorite player to watch on this tour by far, always brings cool ideas and isn't afraid to play aggressive, in the other hand tace is pretty solid and his teams too, But I think ramboss style hurts him a lot because tace usually wants to make the safest play and he Doesn't like to risk too much, this is good but sometimes you need to be more aggressive to win. I think ramboss is going to take advantage of this.


OU: talah vs Vaboh: I liked what I saw from talah against BK , on the other hand vaboh also showed a good performance last week , But I think that Talah will be inspired after beating Bk, so Im going with Him

OU: lax vs Tamahome: they both Good but im going with Lax on this one

OU: Samqian vs Star: Both have had their highs and lows on this tournament, but are still able to win against most of the tournament, Im going with Sam cuz hes a miami heat fan

OU: Kebab mlml vs watashi : Kebab usually brings standard teams and wins games but this snake has been p hard for him, between some really tough matchups and not enough play to overcome them hes struggled a fair amount. flcl is probably not doing as well as most expected but record aside I dont think hes much different than he was in spl and I wouldnt be surprised to see his consistent style take him on a final win streak to improve his record x2.


OU: Bobby Dagen vs Leo: Leo has estado jugando bien hijo de pu**, pero te vas a asustar como una niña pequeña frente a Bobby. I Cant predict on this one cuz I’m really biased, good luck a ambos hermanos.

OU: xray vs Santu: Idk how much Santus care about this now that they are out, but I’m going with xray anyways cuz he’s looking pretty good and he’s picking the right choices

OU: Littlebigplanet 2 vs soulgazer: LBP2 is pretty solid And I don’t see him losing this game

OU: Gefährlicher Random vs qsns: I don’t know qsns but the other guy with the cool name is solid enough to take this one


OU: ima vs dice : I hope dice can win a battle before the the end of regular season, but I don't think it's this one, ima keeps playing well

OU: Sacri' vs High Impulse : Impulse record doesn't do him justice to how good he is, so I hope he can finish the tour positively, on the other hand I don't think he cares much and sacri is playing really well lately

OU: Regnite vs Void : Talking about regnite, it helps a lot that the other ou players on his team are pretty good, but it takes more than that, and he just doesn't have it, in the other hand I dont think voids care to much about this, so im going with the other guy

OU: robjr vs Eeveeto - Simple Bias. it can go either way, but im going with Eeveeto to take this one


My English is far from good and this was complicated for me, be gentle.

rooting for askov,Hs, zomog and feliburn for low tiers, gl guys
 

Ophion

Inner Peace
is a Social Media Contributor
Got some free time before class, so figured it'd be ok to write some OU predicts (even if others beat me to it)

OU: Garay oak vs 1 True Lycan - I think both are pretty solid and like their play, but 1TL has imo been better. Could go either way though.
OU: Eo Mortus vs mncmt - Both are really good and have been doing quite well the past few tous. Honestly very close, but I think Eo will come through.
OU: beatiful vs TPP - Haven't watched too much of Bea (still seems like a fine player from what I've heard), TPP has been doing better than before and I think he'll keep it up if he keeps his head in the game.
OU: Jytcampbell vs HANTSUKI - Joshy has been putting up results, and I think he can take this one too.


OU: Finchinator vs Rexus: Gonna go against the grain on this one. Rexus has obviously been on fire and was on team Italy, so he's got a good skillset. Finch hasn't been as dominant, but something tells me he'll take this one for his team if he keeps his head in the game (which I believe he will). Wouldn't be shocked with either win tho tbh.

OU: Raiza vs BK: Both are good and have done well for themselves. Even though BK got owned last week, I think he can bounce back here. This can go either way though.

OU: BIHI vs John W: John has cooled off a bit this tour, although top 8 in OLT is nothing to scoff at and he was on fire during WCoP. BIHI is also pretty alright but think John will take this one.

OU: Tace vs ramboss: Tace is usually safe af, which is the opposite of Ramboss's often more aggressive style. I think Tace can take the game for his team this week though, he's bringing it together after losing to Tama.


OU: talah vs Vaboh: Just think Vaboh is more solid all around despite Talah going in last week with Zarude.

OU: lax vs Tamahome: This one's a highlight for the OU this week imo. It's close and could go either way but more confident with Lax by a hair.

OU: Samqian vs Star: Both are good players, although Star has slumped a bit. Gonna go with Sam here since I've liked some of his stuff and his play has been pretty good overall.

OU: Kebab mlml vs watashi : I like both but FLCL is more proven overall to me and will bold him.

OU: ima vs dice : Ima is very determined to match his record last snake and Dice hasn't been that hot this tour tbh.

OU: Sacri' vs High Impulse : This matchup is definitely a highlight imo, and both are really good. Think Sacri is more invested and has had more results the past few tours to gauge his play, so gonna go with him.

OU: Regnite vs Void : I don't know much about Regnite and I like Void's play, so gonna go with him.

OU: robjr vs Eeveeto - Rob has fallen back to Earth since his nuzlocke run stopped, but I still like his play more. Eeeveeto ain't bad but just think Rob's been a bit better.

Good luck to everyone this week, hopefully teams that can qual this week can get what they need to achieve it.
 
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Lilburr

you can't wake up, this is not a dream
is a Forum Moderatoris a Community Contributoris a Tiering Contributoris a Contributor to Smogon
Moderator
Everyone's doing OU predicts and idk that tier so I'm gonna predict all the lowers instead. (sorry DOU)

:milotic: Ambrette Astrotias (3) vs Lake of Rage Leviathans (2) :gyarados:
UU: Accelgor (65) vs hs (35)
Accel's been on a tear and is sitting on a cool 5-1 record, with an excellent display of dominance over the UU field, coming off a clean win vs SoulWind last week. hs is great at coming up with unholy sets that can absolutely tear unknowing people apart, as shown by the strength of his Flame Charge Chandelure vs SoulWind two weeks ago. Unfortunately, hs has been struggling otherwise, and certain performances have left something to be desired. I think Accel should take this one as long as he's still motivated (spoiler: he is).

RU: Feliburn (55) vs odr (45)
I hate to do odr like this but man Feli's been amazing this Snake. Sporting an excellent 6-1 record with just one loss that can pretty much be attributed purely to matchup issues rather than poor play is insanely good, particularly considering he went pretty late in the draft too. odr had a rough start, but he's pulling things back now, so I don't think he's gonna be a slouch by any stretch of the imagination - I think he's hungry to go positive, and it's still possible. Taking out Feli will be hard while he's on fire, though.

NU: GW (35) vs Kushalos (65)
Kush has seemingly been solving this tier week in week out. He's consistently brought cool teams with effective techs like Salac Berry Gallade and Throat Spray + Metal Sound Duraludon, and his excellent overall teambuilding and play has culminated into a scorching 5-1 record. GW is unfortunately on the opposite end of the spectrum at 1-6, and it doesn't look like he'll be turning it around any time soon. I think Bouff should be in this slot by now. Combine that with the fact that this is a must-win week for the Leviathans, and it becomes really hard to see Clutchalos dropping this one.

PU: z0mog (49) vs Hamhamhamhamham (51)
Shame to see keppy out but it's probably for the best. z0m has been surprisingly strong in lower tiers, picking up a win in UU and then following it up with a PU win, both of which were extremely clutch for his team. Ham has a bit more experience in this tier (as far as I'm aware) and hasn't looked poor at all, so I'll favour him for now, but this one's super close.

LC: LilyAC (60) vs Xizaaa (40)
Evi pointed out to me that there are now two Lilys on Smogon who spam the shit out of Scraggy and it's been bothering me for a few days. Lily 1's been great, acting as one of the cornerstones for the Astrotias and putting up a strong 5-2 performance in a tier that she seems to mold to her whims week after week. I'm a huge fan of Xizaaa as a player and also as a person, he's the type of person to say "have a nice day!" after scheduling with you and I love that. He's seemed a little bit out of his depth in this pool, though. Maybe he'll be able to turn it around in a do-or-die week for his team, but for now I'm favouring Lily.

:thundurus-therian: Rumble Hall Rattlers (3) vs Shinto Ruin Serpents (2) :giratina-origin:
UU: CBU (45) vs Askov (55)
Hard one to call. Askov has been really solid overall; even in the games he lost, I don't think there were any blatant misplays. I think whatever the Serpents have done with the combination of him and viv has been working out greatly. CBU has similarly been pretty good; he's sitting on a 3-4 record that could easily be 4-3 or 5-2 had some turns gone his way in some earlier games, so he's obviously no slouch. Teambuilding support is the main factor here for me, I like what Askov and viv have been concocting a lot more than what I've seen from CBU. CBU has a bit more outplaying room though, and both Tony and TDK will absolutely want him to win this week and should ensure his team is perfect, so this one's close.

RU: Ajna (55) vs Nat (45)
I'm really happy that Nat's back!! I hope that whatever issue's she's been having have gotten a bit better, it made me super sad to see her off the lineup. As far as I'm aware there's a long-standing friendly rivalry between these two players, and I'm very excited to see how it turns out. Bolding Ajna because he's been popping off lately and shows no signs of stopping despite a loss last week to odr, but this one's got solid chances of going either way. Really hope to catch it live.

NU: bugzinator (60) vs Jrdn (40)
bugzi has been phenomenal. I'm not sure where the Rattlers got their NU prowess from since, as far as I'm aware, bugzi wasn't super familiar with the tier before Snake began, but it's clearly been working out bc he's been totally farming the pool. Jrdn certainly hasn't been a poor performer, and I think last week in particular was a bright spot for him. He just kinda ran circles around Ho3n. bugzi's momentum is just far too much for me to bold against though, and I know he'll really want to win this one for Tony. Should be a good one.

PU: Vulpix03 (45) vs obii (55)
Lord obii has been feasting on the PU pool and has been the Serpent's best performer alongside Tama. Vulpix has been really good too, and with PU seeing such a huge meta shift recently, it's becoming quite hard to predict these games. I've been a big fan of obii's teams though. I have no idea where the heck he's getting them from (there's no way he's building them right??) but they win games and that's what matters. From what I've heard, Vulpix has been building every week for the Rattlers even when Roseybear was playing, so it's clear he has a good grip on the meta. I think this is the closest match of the series for sure and might even decide the whole thing, which is pretty cool considering these two teams are racing for playoffs.

LC: Serene Grace (65) vs tko (35)
I love tko. He's one of the funniest people on this site and I absolutely adore his chat presence, but I think he's a little outmatched by some players in a strange LC pool, and Serene is one of those players. He's been crushing the competition with only a single loss to Ninjadog, and I can't see tko being the slayer of the person who's been the best LC player this Snake without a doubt. Unfortunately not close, but I'd love to see tko take it.

:tapu fini: Lanakila Nagas (2) vs Terminus Taipans (3) :zygarde:
note: i'm not sure if the taipans still intend on putting in any effort given they're mathematically out, but my predictions make the assumption that they are
UU: SoulWind (40) vs Adaam (60)
If you've been reading the UU Snake Thread at all then you'll probably know that I've bolded Adaam against every single opponent he's played and will most likely continue to do that every week unless he just drops every game he plays. This trend continues here. SoulWind is obviously one of the best players of all time, and this isn't lopsided one bit, but Adaam is, in my opinion, the single best UU player atm. Between endless results, great teambuilding and solid execution, it's hard to go wrong when bolding him. I still think SoulWind is the best player in the UU pool by a landslide, but his team support has been lacking all season (Rotom-W slower than Golurk??) and it has resulted in a few losses against opponents that he's definitely better than. Could go either way but unless SW's builders step it up, Adaam should take it.

RU: atomicllamas (49) vs Expulso (51)
God llamas fell back to earth after smashing the pool earlier on in the season and has since been chilling with a nice 3-3 record, managing to outshine his opponent's 2-4. Expulso is a great friend of mine and I really want to make this prediction go further in his favour because I truly do think he can take llamas out with ease if he puts in the effort, but I'm not so sure. The logical-minded person would pick llamas here without a doubt, and they'd probably be right. I'm trusting my gut with Expulso though. Do me proud buddy!!

NU: elodin (40) vs aim (60)
Joey's been surprisingly excellent at NU considering he had to ask people for teams on the NP thread a week before snake started. Most of that has probably been down to his overall skill and experience as a player, but I think he's been bringing great teams regardless, which doesn't surprise me since quite a few of the Taipan's members, particularly Expulso, can weigh in on the NU building process. elodin has been fine enough and is coming off a pretty nice win vs GW featuring the broken tree in true Halloween fashion, but I think Joey's a mountain that'll be difficult for elodin to topple, assuming he doesn't bring a Pikachu or something.

PU: Kink (35) vs tlenit (65)
I cannot wait to see tlenit rock up with an Eviolite Galarian Linoone and somehow use it to counter Alcremie with Sand Attack or some shit. He takes the crown as by far the most hilarious player to watch this Snake and has certainly cemented himself as a great PU starter. Kink's been alright in PU, not great, and I feel like his games have been pretty sloppy. tlenit has been consistent and always seems to have a god tier matchup with whatever unset he decides to come up with, so I heavily favour him.

LC: Ninjadog (60) vs Osh (40)
This feels like a weird one to call because every part of me just wants to scream "Osh will bounce back!!" but I can't see it happening anymore. Not only will he probably be pretty indifferent towards these games now that his team is out, but he's facing the ascendant Ninjadog who has put up a respectable 4-3 record, taking out big names like Serene. He'd also probably be 5-2 had some moves hit vs Lily but she deserved that win for bringing Scraggy anyway. I can't see Osh being motivated enough to take this one, but if he is then it's probably a lot closer.

:steelix: Black City Mambas (3, but probably 5) vs Berry Forest Bushmasters (please win Sensei Axew) :serperior:
UU: Sabella (60) vs frisoeva (40)
Oh my lord what have we here LOL this is the most heat MU of the century for sure. Booty has been picking things up after taking out CBU and yours truly, and I think he'll be really motivated to slam the weakened Bushmasters so that his team can make playoffs. Friso's no slouch by any means, I think he's definitely got the potential to take this one - I think he went 4-0? in Majors pools, which shows that he at least knows the tier somewhat. The Bushmasters prob don't care though so I think he'll just load up Pyukumuku screens or something.

RU: eifo (60) vs Ramolost (40)
Surprisingly, this one feels like a real game. Ramo's more experienced with RU than one might think, and I'm not too sure if the same can be said for eifo. His game last week inspired a ton of confidence, though; he picked Mazinger's team apart very patiently and just seemed to get every single play right. Ramo can probably take this one if he puts in the effort, and he's definitely got the team support required thanks to Sensei Axew's building skills, but eifo's been great and should be farrrr more motivated, so solid edge.

EDIT: I have been informed that eifo is actually an RU main. My apologies eifo, my zoomer was showing. I am now even more confident in my bold.

NU: KingKdot (1) vs Sensei Axew (99)
LORD SENSEI AXEW HAS BEEN FREED ONCE MORE, DO IT FOR THE GAYS


PU: Ktütverde (45) vs pokemonisfun (55)
Holy shit I can't take these games seriously anymore. I'm bolding pif purely because I want him to win, Ktut called me out on a PUPL thread once bc I stalled his teammate which is fair tbh. His post last week makes me anxious too. He's obviously great, though, and realistically will probably win, but I bet pif will bring Dusclops webs and smash. Did you guys know he wrote the BW UU Dusclops analysis like 2 years after the gen ended because nobody else wanted to do it?

LC: Wail Wailord (65) vs CyberOdin✝ (35)
Wail Wailoat will claim at least one more victim this season and I think it will be CyberOdin who, despite looking pretty fine in NU, probably doesn't know what a Grookey is. I literally have no idea what to say about this one. Has Odin ever played LC? I'm way too much of a zoomer to know.

Best of luck to all the teams still trying for playoffs! Somehow we've ended up in 2nd place despite our season having ended over 150 times according to our chat's linecount. Gooooo Cobras!! :arbok:
 
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