DONDICTIONS
Predictions r useless in a game heavily dictated by chance but there’s still levels to this shit
for player types ill be referring to
https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/the-sorting-dex.3630899/
ABR v
FLCL: yall gonn call me crazy but this is not by chance. Flcl clickin ass is unpredictable as shit and will go for some hair pullin ass luck plays and will never not click twave etc. that being said, abr should still outplay, he is the better player and isn’t unlucky. However, brains says abr but gut says flcl cuz he’s gonna pull some stupid ass shit since abr prepares very mu heavily and with respect to the meta, flcl might just pull some heat and pull this upset cuz don’t get me wrong he can make big plays and he is good enough as to not get outplayed like some of the bads in playoffs.
Technical analysis:
This is a classic thinker v clicker mu with abr donning the
CRV player type vs fooly's
NPV/NPX style of clickery. one is calculated while the other is intuitive, so itll be easy for abr to seize momentum in good mu (which abr does better than anyone else) but hard to overcome bad mu since u already know fooly clickin supereffective moves every turn. reactive vs proactive playmaking favors fooly because CLICKITY CLICK, but he has the foresight to know when to click. the last category of team building goes to abr cuz his teams are generally better rounded but those r speaking in terms of vs meta threats, so what if fooly brings some sunflora heat who knows. consistency, teambuilding, and playing the odds wise abr trumps flcl in all 3 but hey my gut tells me fooly takes this 2-1 curtesy of
Ojama v Elodin: kingpin kingpin kingpin just jumped over dumpman, I mean how tf is elodin even in playoffs this man sposed to be banned after foolishly challenging the goat to banbattle bo3 but I generously allowed him to remain. Having known elodin from carrying him spl6 and also having known Ojama from facing him/watching i can tell the skill difference is immense, and I’ll be shocked if this one turned out to be an upset
Technical analysis:
ojama i think is a classic
CPV while elodin is probably a
NRX. respectively, one is a well rounded player whos versatile and unpredictable while the other is more turn by turn and predictable both in style and building. this shit sways heavily in ojamas favor but then again u never know if elodin can swig one off ojama's plate to make it at least a worthwhile 2-1
Empo v Mounts: lesser of the two evils. These two rlly r middle of the road ass players and this pelicans v blazers ass matchup won’t be seeing much hype nor will it live up to the hype it won’t have. U ever heard Eminem’s album w Royce da 5’9 from way back in the day “bad meets evil”? Well this shit is “bad meets badder”
idk much about these 2 but empos garbage and cheeses while mounts i think i roasted for being bad in spl so yea idk bad meets badder sums it up
Soulwind v Undisputed: swoaty is just too good at these gens, and even in his weakest of the 3 aka oras undi still doesn’t have an edge cuz tho he’s a good player iirc st tiers moved past adv and dpp a few years back no shade. On top of that swoaty playing at peak performance LeBron James in this bitch he could potentially win 3 this year that’s unheard of since hugoat (and abr technically within a year’s span)
Technical analysis: swoaty is one of the most consistent and good players for a long time, boasting a
CPX type while undi idk what his is and have insufficient data to conclude. however undi has been rlly good in old gens and that translated well to him making playoffs in these new gens, so ill assume he carried his calculating approach and proactive style, making him also a
CPX. this is a mirror but sw has the edge of having played newgens longer and probably being just better at newgens (partly due to experience). prolly goin to be 2-0 if sw wins game 1
Bro fist v Mix: John is one of the top players across all 3 gens and mix is one of the players of the 3 gens. That about sums it up
technical analysis: classic
CPX and one of the best and most consistent mans of all time. mix a clicker and the skill diff is there, johns not gonna lose this shit maybe 1 to mu so 2-1
BlackOblivion v Googly: bo played pretty well in spl and he made it to st finals so im gonna assume he is pretty consistently competent. Googly only cheeses. For the sake of smogon do not let cheesers get any amount of clout and accolades
idk much about both but iv seen bo play pretty solidly and aggressively while using some non standard shit, so i can say hes
CPV while googly plays aggro stall which makes him
NPX so idk i think this favors the all arounder with heat techs. bo 2-1
Blunder v
Odeio Stall: year after year I been said “blunders gettin this shmoney” but Lady Luck time and time again has foiled his attempts. This time I’m gonna say fuckit and reverse jinx him into winning it all. Blunder has the highest highs of this entire player pool meaning he can outplay the fuck outta anyone here, but my nigga can also fall victim to one clickin ass move or one instance of luck, but hopefully the hotheaded 7godblundboi can overcome the autism (no shade, blunders mons prowess and shortcomings i believe is some form of autism) and get buckets this tour. Btw odeio stall is like 12 or some shit if he wins I’m recruiting IDM odeio as my new protege
technical analysis: blunder also a
CPX supposedly but plays more like a
NPX some days, but if he can keep a cool head,,, nah no way hes winning, dude got stall in his name this guy a bonafide
CRX idc what anyone says goatdeio stall winnin 12-0
We Three Kings v Energy: toughie cuz idk too much about w3k but Iv seen decent games involving dude and his teams/playstyle is solid aka not too good or bad. On the other hand laurel can make some heat plays and tkae games off top players but can also play absolutely dogshitly like that one game in spl, so this one is a toughie, givin it to the more consistent lookin guy off gut.
side note: i think most of the consistent mfs trump the clickers in these mus but flcl is an exception because hes able to play amazing games showcasing that he knows how to play and thinks ahead but i guess he only thinks like 2 turns ahead and not THAT far so yea maybe im givin him too much credit. however my gut tells me he just matches up very well vs abr out of everyone in this entire round with the exception of blunder and maybe soulwind.
i think the top 4 players of this round are in no order abr blunder soulwind john but id be surprised if any of them got eliminated EXCEPT abr and blunder cuz they got matched vs goats.
BLUNDER LOSIN r1 BROS REVERSE JINX HIM
oh yea btw i made a spreadsheet for the probability of each player's chances of winning check it out *SPOILER ALERT*