Playoffs Smogon Tour Season 25 Playoffs [Won by blunder]

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Finchinator

Finchinator

-OUTL
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OU Leader
16. FLCL (SM, ORAS) (55) vs (45) 8. We Three Kings (BW) - Close set here. I think the winner will advance to the finals in perhaps surprising fashion, but gotta favor FLCL after he took down ABR. W3K is still a strong player and my personal dark horse from the field, but this isn't an easy r2 draw for him. I think FLCL has a lot more exposure to the newer generations, but w3k will take care of business with some humble BW action there.
2. Ojama (SM) (49) vs (51) 7. blunder (ORAS, BW) - Guess a lot of people have blunder taking SM+ORAS, but I honestly think that Ojama will come prepared and take SM given his decent competency there. I do, however, think blunder is at least on par in BW here. His BW game is underrated and I think that's what will make the difference in this set, but it could surely go either way -- definitely one to watch.
14. Mounts (ORAS, BW) (55) vs (45) 6. Blackoblivion (SM) - BO has been better in tournaments this year thus far, but Mounts matches up well I reckon. SM favors BO and ORAS favors Mounts fairly decisively imo. I trust the Frenchman more as a steady pilot in BW, but that one is what'll likely decide it. BO is a bit of a question mark here, but he has had decent success, so let's see how that turns out for him as he may very well need it to go well to take the series. Very interested to see what Mounts comes up with to try and steal the SM game, too.
4. SoulWind (BW) (40) vs 5. (60) bro fist (SM, ORAS) - Probably the best set regardless of my numbers making it seem the most lopsided (honestly, all of these are close as shit). John's playing very well as of late and you gotta respect that. I think he matches up well with SW naturally in that he is a clear-cut favorite in 2 generations whereas SW is a clear-cut in the other, being BW. It is far from unlikely to see SW steal ORAS or SM though, especially given that he does have some experience, history, and success in both metagames, so let's see what happens there (ofc, John can also take BW, but SW knows how important it is to turn his advantages into wins, so I think that SW will play his best here).

really cool pairings and great top8, gl dudes
 
Triangles

Triangles

Big Stew
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FLCL vs We Three Kings (SM, ORAS, BW) - matchup nightmare for FLCL imo. W3K's conservative and 'optimal' playstyle will do great vs FLCL's natural tendency towards aggression, and I'd be sincerely surprised if W3K doesn't 2-0 this.
Ojama (SM, BW) vs blunder (ORAS) - Highlight series. Both these guys have excellent game, but watching Ojama last round really impressed me; he managed to outplay a very bad matchup in SM, and then played a great game of predictions and nerves in BW. I think he might go all the way this year.
Mounts (BW) vs Blackoblivion (SM, ORAS) - Both these guys are really good, and all three of these games will be very close run. Almost a tossup to call this one.
SoulWind vs bro fist (SM, ORAS, BW) - John has looked really dominant recently. This prediction looks one-sided but that is not to take anything away from SW who had a beast of an OST run and yet another great SPL. All three of these games are very marginal and this will be an excellent series for the spectator.

On another note, this is probably the best and most exciting top 8 for a S-Tour I've seen in ages.
 
CTC

CTC

I COULD BE BANNED!
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DONDICTIONS
ill forgo most of the analyses last round cuz fuckit, skill difference was visible in most series bar abr flcl
also shoutout goatdictor perfect round 1 goatdictions eskettitttt

16. FLCL vs 8. We Three Kings - FLCL actually does a good job of knowing when to aggro and when to switch up. oras game v abr is prime example of making himself unpredictable while putting on pressure. mans is prone to bringing dogshit tho (See sm) so i hope he pulls up with lordheat. w3k plays so defensively and predictably on the other hand that even tho hes solid he almost never made a play until the very last turns v laurel (moreso laurel outplaying himself) so i think the unpredictability factor of flcl helps here, also fooly is just the better player
2. Ojama vs 7. blunder - I favor blunder's expertise in sm and his team choice in oras. if mu isn't in ojama's favor he wont be able to abuse blunder like he did elodin's reactive ass playstyle. aggro v aggro but ojama almost always uses offensive/defensively split teams, not balance, but rather unbalance with very offensive shit n fat shit, which is very unique and cool. however, that type of team is antimeta/unexpected but wo matchup i dont think they are as good as standard good heat, so i feel like blunder will take this 2-1 barely. just a gut feeling tho, since it's hard to bet against the kingpin, actually fuckit predicting against blunder cuz REVERSE JINXXXXXXXXXXX
14. Mounts vs 6. Blackoblivion - i think mounts outplayed his opp lsat round while bo's 3 games were mu filled trading-bodies type shits. idk tho, i feel like bo uses too standard of teams/known teams, which can hurt him. overall i think bo is just somewhere between w3k and john and i think he needs to channel more john than w3k this series to win barring mu, because hes good at controlling games in which he has mu. mounts made some missplays and some good plays in bw, and kept a good matchup into an unlosable one in gen 7. imma put it this way bo is more prone to getting outplayed in an even to worse mu but generally is more rounded in an even to better mu.
4. SoulWind vs bro fist - this is the toughest mu to decide and arguably the best one of the round. i cant rlly call the bw or oras games since both r insane in those gens and mu is unforeseeable. in sm tho idki think sw is more likely to go balls deep, i mean either player is capable of outplaying depending on mu and techs but this one is also gut feeling.

will forsure post goatnalyses for this round
 
Hookah Doncic

Hookah Doncic

Ojama vs blunder - “Don’t you have a fake child to take care of.” Anyways going with blunder cause he needs that money like the ring he never won. Don’t be another Allen Iverson. Hope you win it all in this one
 
elodin

elodin

the burger
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16. FLCL vs 8. We Three Kings - I really like both these players. W3K has a more conservative approach to his games but he always finds win conditions and plans his end games smartly. FLCL's aggressive playstyle should prove very useful in this particular matchup, but I think people underestimate Lasse's ability to punish aggressive tendencies. Fooly has really impressed me in SM / ORAS recently though, and I feel like he should have an edge in both these tiers while Lasse should win the BW match.
2. Ojama vs 7. Blunder - Honestly don't know who'll come out on top in this one. I think Ojama has the edge in BW while blunder has the edge in ORAS, but SM really is anyone's game. Also they're both competent enough to upset in the tiers they're disadvantaged in, so it's kinda pointless to predict in my opinion. These are 2 of the players I look up to the most on the site at the moment, I'd say the winner of this series is probably the favorite to win the whole thing.
14. Mounts vs 6. Blackoblivion - BlackOblivion has been super impressive recently and I really look up to him as a player in recent gens. He destroyed me in OST, his SPL performance was amazing and he's been constantly solid throughout this season of ST. Mounts is someone who really impresses me with his building and his prep though, and I believe BO's lack of creativity and often repetition when it comes to his teams should punish him a lot here as Mounts definitely is one of the smartest players at abusing these tendencies both before and during his games.
4. Soulwind vs 5. bro fist - SoulWind has always been an extremely solid player with great performances in every Tour season and basically every other tournament. It's obvious bro fist is good enough to compete on the same level as anyone, but given recent tournament performances I don't think anyone can say he's the favorite in this matchup. SW has the clear edge in SM / BW and while I do think he shares the same issues of BlackOblivion when it comes to overusing similar builds, that really isn't a problem unless his opponent exploits it (especially when you consider the great results they're both obtaining). bro fist is not someone I'd expect to abuse that since he also shares this problem, especially in SM.
 
BKC

BKC

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FLCL vs We Three Kings
mister aggressive vs. sir patient (not to be confused with passive). gonna be explosive or a slow burner but either will be intriguing. expecting fooly to go back to his ass-kicking rain offense monstrosities to go against a chokeholding sand team. will be very interesting to see how each tries to tackle the other in this matchup. w3k uses solid balance stuff in oras, name of the game and all, so it'll be a good battle either way but I'm looking forward to see how flcl steps outside the box to thrash the meta like that klefki lo zam shit that embedded itself in my mind as one of the most... violent teams + performances I've ever seen. last round's oras was similarly filthy. his sm fluctuates between good ol magearna antics and the weirder thing we saw against abr, while w3 remains solid in that with tran bulu and pals. the variance in his playing is dangerous to both him and his opponent, and w3k's steadiness is pretty unwavering. however, overall I have faith in disabled jackie chad
Ojama vs blunder
the only way this prediction would've been made a few years ago would be if some idm goon was cheering on his pal against the big bad smogonite. how far we have come. also how far we have progressed. at a glance it's pretty clear: blunder favored in sm/oras and ojama in bw. while I don't necessarily disagree, I don't find it to be as cut-and-dry as that. ojama's sm is excellent and his oras is nothing to be scoffed at either, and he's not afraid to use less standard stuff. similarly, blunder's bw is pretty darn strong. this really could go either way, depending on who woke up on which side of the bed that morning. I'm expecting blunder to come blasting out of the gate with his double switch-laden style opening some holes with ojama pushing back slowly but surely until we get into some intense endgame scenarios. oj is somewhat likely to surprise in bw somehow so the advantage stays there but the same could be said for blunder in sm/oras. think baljeet will barely edge this one out in what's sure to be a thriller
Mounts vs Blackoblivion
bo seems to get/choose better teams in bw that he can autopilot pretty well. I agree with ctc that if the matchup isn't in his favor then bo tends to struggle. an example is tyranitar being played recklessly when it needed to be preserved for the reuniclus. the easy conclusion to draw from this is that matchup will have a hand in this game, but not in the traditional sense, which is kinda interesting. mounts' bw teams can be kinda strange and sometimes he makes a misplay from some less immediate aspect of the tier. I suppose this means that bo is favored. however predicting anyone against mounts in oras is fucking stupid. he is the guy like mike ehrmantraut used to have. bo is pretty excellent in that tier himself but I think he goes too much with the trends (so right now gliscor and his passive damage friends with an occasional guest appearance by the big strong fast keld metas) while mounts tends to put together the most shredding offensive teams you ever saw so I think that's his game. bo is more of an sm guy and finds ways to blend his strong creative combos with good defense but mounts' playing is similar to his oras style and his teams aren't exactly bad so I think he will eke it out in that third game. oras/sm are very promising, if mounts steps up his bw it tips it even more in his favor and we could be in for a real wild ride
SoulWind vs bro fist
similarly to oj-blunder, sw is favored in bw but john is no slouch there. both of them are gonna bring some modern bangin oras/sm teams so that'll be a sight to see. no cheese makes me a happy boy. I think john is likely to have something more surprising/gamebreaking in sm whereas sw tends to go with the strong-vs-everything style - which incidentally is the opposite of bw - so I think I slightly favor john in that one because their playing is really even. it'll come down to oras where, again, I think john ekes it out; this kind of environment is more of his home, whereas sw's regular season crushing of oras doesn't always work out in playoffs. not to discredit him of course he's still scary. crawdaunt jellicent is crazy though. another wild back-and-forth, I'm sure. hope to see some volcanion fun there, some cb karts in sm and in bw some more vicious terrakion action. sex, god, sex.

looking forward to another beautifully decadent pokemon sunday
 
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