Tournaments SPL XIII ADV Discussion Thread

[Colteor]

OP stolen from the rby SPL thread

SPL XIII Introduction
Schedule
Spreadsheet

Hello ADVers and welcome to the 13th season of the most prestigious tour, SPL! This thread will be used for general discussion, predictions, hype, or any other topic related to ADV in SPL. I will be updating the thread weekly once the tournament starts with replays, matches, and usage stats. Whether you are here to cheer on your favorite player, support a team, or play and innovate at the highest level, feel free to share your thoughts here!

Auction Results

Pricelist

Potential ADV starter pricelist

ABR - 42.5k
Star - 27.5k (retain)
M Dragon - 24k
Ojama - 24k
Altina - 17k
Johnnyg2 - 13k
Mikmer - 5.5k
Teclis - 5.5k
Watermess - 3.5k
Eden - 3.5k
Sadlysius - 3k
Dizno - 3k
Jirachee - 3k
Pheo' - 3k

Alpha Ruiners - M Dragon, Watermess

Circus Maximus Tigers - Teclis, Tamahome

Cryonicles - Ojama, Endill (mids)

Congregation of the Classiest - Johnnyg2, Siglut

Dragonspiral Tyrants - ABR

Evergrande Bigs - Altina, z0mog, SuperEpicAmpharos

Indie Scooters - Mikmer

Stark Sharks - Jirachee, Pheo'

Team Raiders - Sadlysius, Dizno, Hclat (mids)

Wifi Wolfpack - Star, eden


SPL XIII Power Rankings

Replays

Week 1
[BIG] Altina vs Pheo' [SHA]
[TIG] Teclis vs M Dragon [RUI]
[TYR] ABR vs Sadlysius [RAI]
[CRY] Ojama vs Star [WOL]
[SCO] mikmer vs johnnyg2 [CLA]

Week 2
[CLA] johnnyg2 vs Teclis [TIG]
[WOL] Star vs altina [BIG]
[RAI] Sadlysius vs Ojama [CRY]
[RUI] M Dragon vs ABR [TYR]
[SHA] Pheo' vs mikmer [SCO]

Week 3
[BIG] Altina vs Dizno [RAI]
[TYR] ABR vs johnnyg2 [CLA]
[CRY] Ojama vs M Dragon [RUI]
[SCO] mikmer vs Teclis [TIG]
[SHA] Jirachee vs Star [WOL]

Week 4
[RUI] M Dragon vs Altina [BIG]
[RAI] Sadlysius vs Pheo' [SHA]
[WOL] Star vs mikmer [SCO]
[CLA] johnnyg2 vs Ojama [CRY]
[TIG] Teclis vs ABR [TYR]

Week 5
[CRY] Ojama vs Teclis [TIG]
[G1] [G2]
[SCO] mikmer vs ABR [TYR]
[BIG] Altina vs johnnyg2 [CLA]
[SHA] Pheo' vs M Dragon [RUI]
[WOL] Star vs Sadlysius [RAI]

Week 6
[RAI] Hclat vs mikmer [SCO]
[RUI] M Dragon vs Star [WOL]
[CLA] johnnyg2 vs Pheo' [SHA]
[TIG] Tamahome vs Altina [BIG]
[TYR] ABR vs Ojama [CRY]

Usage Stats

Usage Stats!

+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Tyranitar          |   60 |  62.50% |  47.50% |
| 2    | Metagross          |   46 |  47.92% |  56.52% |
| 3    | Skarmory           |   44 |  45.83% |  34.09% |
| 4    | Zapdos             |   38 |  39.58% |  60.53% |
| 5    | Swampert           |   37 |  38.54% |  50.00% |
| 6    | Blissey            |   35 |  36.46% |  37.14% |
| 7    | Salamence          |   32 |  33.33% |  53.12% |
| 8    | Claydol            |   27 |  28.12% |  55.56% |
| 8    | Gengar             |   27 |  28.12% |  48.15% |
| 10   | Jirachi            |   22 |  22.92% |  45.45% |
| 11   | Dugtrio            |   21 |  21.88% |  50.00% |
| 12   | Suicune            |   19 |  19.79% |  44.74% |
| 12   | Starmie            |   19 |  19.79% |  42.11% |
| 14   | Celebi             |   18 |  18.75% |  50.00% |
| 15   | Aerodactyl         |   16 |  16.67% |  46.88% |
| 16   | Magneton           |   13 |  13.54% |  61.54% |
| 17   | Flygon             |   11 |  11.46% |  54.55% |
| 18   | Snorlax            |    9 |   9.38% |  72.22% |
| 19   | Charizard          |    7 |   7.29% |  78.57% |
| 20   | Heracross          |    6 |   6.25% |  75.00% |
| 20   | Cloyster           |    6 |   6.25% |  58.33% |
| 20   | Forretress         |    6 |   6.25% |  50.00% |
| 23   | Milotic            |    5 |   5.21% |  60.00% |
| 23   | Jolteon            |    5 |   5.21% |  40.00% |
| 25   | Gyarados           |    4 |   4.17% |  50.00% |
| 25   | Hariyama           |    4 |   4.17% |  25.00% |
| 25   | Smeargle           |    4 |   4.17% |  25.00% |
| 28   | Moltres            |    3 |   3.12% |  66.67% |
| 28   | Venusaur           |    3 |   3.12% |  66.67% |
| 28   | Regice             |    3 |   3.12% |  66.67% |
| 28   | Raikou             |    3 |   3.12% |  66.67% |
| 28   | Porygon2           |    3 |   3.12% |  33.33% |
| 28   | Breloom            |    3 |   3.12% |  33.33% |
| 34   | Blaziken           |    2 |   2.08% | 100.00% |
| 34   | Jynx               |    2 |   2.08% |  75.00% |
| 34   | Machamp            |    2 |   2.08% |   0.00% |
| 37   | Camerupt           |    1 |   1.04% | 100.00% |
| 37   | Vaporeon           |    1 |   1.04% | 100.00% |
| 37   | Registeel          |    1 |   1.04% | 100.00% |
| 37   | Lunatone           |    1 |   1.04% | 100.00% |
| 37   | Exeggutor          |    1 |   1.04% | 100.00% |
| 37   | Jumpluff           |    1 |   1.04% | 100.00% |
| 37   | Steelix            |    1 |   1.04% |   0.00% |
| 37   | Ludicolo           |    1 |   1.04% |   0.00% |
| 37   | Weezing            |    1 |   1.04% |   0.00% |
| 37   | Articuno           |    1 |   1.04% |   0.00% |
| 37   | Armaldo            |    1 |   1.04% |   0.00% |

 

[Stockings]

I predict all my friends to win every game! :D

 

[watermess]

watermess' highly based, late, late night commencement
power rankings

As I start writing this it's midnight over here and what better way to end the first day of the year staying up later than planned posting on a pokemon forum and slipping ever deeper into sleep depravity. It's shaping up to be another exciting spl in adv with an average price of 16.5k per starter without counting for support slots! So before I get into watermess' late, late night commencement prs, shoutouts to fellow RegiRunner Colteor for hosting the thread this year, and secondly to Triangles for not buying me a second year in a row Xx... Without further ado lets get into it!



1. Ruiners - Mdragon, Dice, Watermess (ofc the best team here)
It wouldn't be a watermess unbiased rankings if I didn't rank my own team first. M dragon in adv, with Dice support, now that's based, and of course I'm totally unbiased which is why we are ranked first ;) To fill in those new to the spl/adv scene, M dragon has spent the last few years not playing spl but instead managing the sharks, however playing in every iteration of Callous invitational he's certainly still a threat, Combine this with teams and support from dice who was on an absolute warpath in 2021 adv tours, going undefeated in advpl, and having an entirely respectable Callous invitational as well, I think Ruiners look to have a pretty strong ADV this season.

2. Wolfpack - Starmaster, eden, GaryTheGengar, Nails, (BKC)
Coming out of 2021 with a long string of accolades, Starmaster has had a great year, 9-2 in spl, 5th place in callous invitational, and once again under BKC support and management, with support from master forretress teambuilder eden no less! and potentially help from gtg or nails who also both have experience playing adv on the big stage, wolves certainly shape up to be a one of the teams to beat in adv this year, eyes will be on star and Kev to see if they can replicate the results of last season for another dominant year.

3. Tyrants - ABR, Marcop, Eeveeto, (PDC)
After winning smogon classic and callous invitational in the same year, there's no doubt ABR can put down results in ADV, even if he's intent up-ending the tier with his obsession with the bans of baton pass and sleep. With support from seasoned ADV starter and callous invitational runner-up Marcop, as well as manager PDC and last minute sub purchase Eeveeto, ABR also has a great squad in his corner to help him with scouting, testing and building. Clocking in at 42.5k, the most expensive player not just in ADV this year but across the entire tour, seeing if anyone could live up to such a price will certainly be interesting indeed, and if anyone can do it, surely it must be ABR?

4. cryos - Ojama, exiline, conflict, (Triangles)
The return of Ojama, not just to ADV but to SPL as well, after two years not playing spl due to his tourban, and at a price of 24k, some might see Ojama as a bit of a risk! But the kingpin has historically been one of the most dominant forces in ADV, and with seasoned veteran and Callous invitational 3 winner Triangles as well as support from exiline and conflict if desired, It would not be at all surprising if Ojama took this tournament by storm, only time will tell.

5. Bigs - Altina, Zomog, SuperEpicAmpharos, Mael
Ok we have hit 1:30 am, but I'm gonna try and rattle off the rest of these so sorry if the quality drops a little lol. Coming in ranked at number 5 we have the Bigs, Altina has been on something of a warpath lately, after an unfortunate showing last spl losing to a protect lead ttar from marcop, and his own blind jirachi vs august, Altina proceeded to go all the way to classic finals, and then take third place in Callous invitational, taking some of his team asia wcop teammates out for dinner with some of the winnings! Theres no doubt in anyone's mind that a motivated Altina cause some real upsets vs an extremely top-heavy priced ADV pool this year, and with support from spl ADV veteran zomog, fan favourite and up and comer SEA, as well as long time jack of all trades, Mael, the Bigs look to have a promising season ahead of them!

6. Classiest - Johnnyg2, Siglut, Soulwind, garay oak, Mako, London beats, (FMG)
Sliding into 6 with a double spl debut core, Johnnyg2 and Siglut make a pretty good core, with both players having made a name for themselves over the last two years with Johnnyg2 having a deep run in callous invitational this year, and Siglut making his mark across multiple pokemon perfect tours, no doubts the adv community will be watching these two closely. with support from a plethora of players all with experience in adv should they need it, I for one am looking forward to seeing these two get it done!

7. Scooters - Mikmer, fear, (McMeghan)
In closely behind in 7th ranks Mikmer, coming off of a deep run in Callous invitational this year, Mikmer is an ADV ladder legend turned tournament machine and comes well respected across the community, backed by ADV mainstay Roro, and with support additional support from fear as well if needed, I'm hoping we get to see the Mikman pull some great upsets this spl.

8. Tigers - Teclis, Tamahome, Zokuru, (Callous)
Returning for a third season, we have Teclis, hopefully this year he can replicate his strong showing from last year, which although riddled with unfortunate hax, indubitably had some great (almost) wins and high level play. With a competent support crew ,the ability to shuffle about old gen slots if needed and amid rumors that seasoned veteran Astamatitos may also be in the team chat helping out; I'm certainly intrigued to see if the tigers can replicate the same great season they had last year in adv.

9. Raiders - Sadlysius, Dizno, Elodin, (tricking)
Leaving his home on tyrants, Sadlysius starts this year for the Raiders, while yet to have many spl games, sadly has experience of two spl's now prepping teammates and building some high-quality teams, supported by another longtime ADV ladder server regular, dizno and manager tricking who has some experience playing ADV in large-scale tours, the raiders hope to put down some solid wins in this heavily priced ADV pool.

10. Sharks - Jirachee, Pheo, (TDK)
Returning after a sudden Haitus, the sharks will be hoping that ex-cryo jirachee sticks around for the whole tour and is able to put down some good results! In such a price heavy pool and with what could be called the shorter end of the stick in terms of support, its easy to be skeptical that jirachee will do well, but we cant overlook the experience a player like jirachee has in these tournaments and it will certainly be exciting to see what teams he chooses and how he fairs.

Thanks for reading, as of finishing this its 2:30 am which all In all means, I spent over 2 hours typing up what I have now realized is the same rankings as those posted in the official power rankings plus meme putting ruiners first, but I at least hope it was an entertaining read, it was certainly entertaining procrastination for me.
Happy new year all and here's to some cool ADV games in 2022!
Triangles smells​

 

[Colteor]

Week 1 is up! Here are the ADV replays and teams of the week:

[BIG] Altina vs Pheo' [SHA]
vs
[TIG] Teclis vs M Dragon [RUI]
vs
[TYR] ABR vs Sadlysius [RAI]
vs
[CRY] Ojama vs Star [WOL]
vs
[SCO] mikmer vs johnnyg2 [CLA]
vs ​

Good luck to everyone, I'm looking forward to all of these matches!

 

[Noglastica]

The predictions that nobody asked for from me!


Altina vs Pheo
70-30
I don't think this is a huge surprise to anyone, Altina is a dominant force in ADV, especially as of this last year's performances.

Teclis vs M Dragon
40-60
I think that this game could be closer than one might predict. M Dragon is M Dragon and has strong support from the goat watermess in the back, but Teclis is still a top tier ADVer and I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled an upset here.

ABR vs Sadlysius
80-20
Although there is no question on who the better ADV memer is, picking anyone over ABR this early on in SPL seems wrong.

Ojama vs Star
40-60
Easily the game of the week. No matter what happens, I think this might be the best ADV series throughout the entirety of SPL. Ojama is one of the most dominant battlers of all time, but nobody really knows what form he's returning to. Being thrown into the hot water Week 1 against Star, someone who is consistently incredible, but doesn't quite match peak Ojama. It comes down to what sort of form Ojama plays at in Week 1.

Mikmer vs Johnnyg2
50-50
In what has the potential to be an equally exciting battle to the one above, these two are incredibly close in ability. Though not the same prolific stars as Ojama and Star, both Mikmer and Johnnyg2 are strong contenders to have a positive SPL. This one could go either way, and I'm excited to see what these players can bring. In all honesty, I have no idea who's going to win, I'm just putting Mikmer so I didn't go entirely off of Finch's power rankings.


Good luck to everyone, this is already a really interesting week and I can't wait to watch!

 

[frisoeva]

[BIG] Altina vs Pheo' [SHA]
[TIG] Teclis vs M Dragon [RUI]
[TYR] ABR vs Sadlysius [RAI]
[CRY] Ojama vs Star [WOL]
[SCO] mikmer vs johnnyg2 [CLA]

 

[dk]

[BIG] Altina vs Pheo' [SHA] - the tellius enthusiast had a really deep CI run and had a great classic so it's hard to predict against him

[TIG] Teclis vs M Dragon [RUI] - not very confident in this guess but m dragon has probably built every viable six in adv before so that should count for something

[TYR] ABR vs Sadlysius [RAI] - abr is the recent CI and classic winner. also a diehard skarm lover and basketball hater so that also ups his odds overall

[CRY] Ojama vs Star [WOL] - both evidently top tier advers but the matter of whether or not ojama is actually rusty makes guessing the likelier winner a little more involved. going with star because i'm still not sure if it's pronounced 'ohama' or if it's a hard j and also im generally a fan of what star brings

[SCO] mikmer vs johnnyg2 [CLA] - hoping this game isn't tainted by consequential luck because it's an interesting one. hard to choose once again but based on what i recall of ci i like johnny's building a little more

 

[Gefährlicher Random]

[BIG] Altina vs Pheo' [SHA]
[TIG] Teclis vs M Dragon [RUI]
[TYR] ABR vs Sadlysius [RAI]
[CRY] Ojama vs Star [WOL]
[SCO] mikmer vs johnnyg2 [CLA]

 

[Colteor]

Week 1 usage stats!

+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Tyranitar          |    9 |  90.00% |  44.44% |
| 2    | Metagross          |    7 |  70.00% |  57.14% |
| 3    | Swampert           |    5 |  50.00% |  80.00% |
| 3    | Skarmory           |    5 |  50.00% |  40.00% |
| 3    | Blissey            |    5 |  50.00% |  40.00% |
| 3    | Starmie            |    5 |  50.00% |  20.00% |
| 7    | Zapdos             |    4 |  40.00% |  75.00% |
| 7    | Salamence          |    4 |  40.00% |  75.00% |
| 9    | Magneton           |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 9    | Celebi             |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 11   | Aerodactyl         |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 12   | Regice             |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 12   | Gengar             |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 12   | Heracross          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 12   | Dugtrio            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 12   | Forretress         |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 12   | Gyarados           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 12   | Hariyama           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 12   | Steelix            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |

 

[Colteor]

Week 2 is freed! Here are our weekly matchups:

[CLA] johnnyg2 vs Teclis [TIG]
vs
[WOL] Star vs altina [BIG]
vs
[RAI] Sadlysius vs Ojama [CRY]
vs
[RUI] M Dragon vs ABR [TYR]
vs
[SHA] Pheo' vs mikmer [SCO]
vs ​

 

[Noglastica]

After an impressive 2/5 in my week 1 predictions, my theory is that I can only go up from here.

[CLA] johnnyg2 vs Teclis [TIG]
40-60
There is absolutely no evidence of me having thought Teclis might lose W1 to M Dragon, but a very nice win using a cute regice team really set a precedent for Teclis. I think that Teclis, with the support of Callous, can definitely come away with a win this week. Johnny played well against mikmer and brought steelix. From a teambuilding standpoint, I anticipate that this will be the most interesting pair of teams we see this week.

[WOL] Star vs altina [BIG]
70-30
The two big upsets last week in my opinion, super excited to see who gets the opportunity to bounce back, and which of these very talented top players will unfortunately end up 0-2. I'm going to put my money on Star this week. Although losing to Ojama, Star had a very unlucky outing despite being in control the entire game. Ojama managed to work his way back to collect a win despite a tough matchup, but Star played very well. Altina also had a strong showing, and losing against DD Mence is almost a guarantee due to its prominence in the meta, but I think Star is still the favorite here.

[RAI] Sadlysius vs Ojama [CRY]
30-70
Sadly played very well against ABR in a match that I honestly didn't think would be that close. However, Sadly showed the capability to go toe to toe with the best. Ojama on the other hand showed he hasn't lost a step, with numerous flashy plays fighting an uphill battle. I think this has the capability of being a close game, but I've still gotta give it to Ojama.

[RUI] M Dragon vs ABR [TYR]
0-100
ABR vs Forretress user. Enough said.

[SHA] Pheo' vs mikmer [SCO]
50-50
Both coming away with wins in their first week against tough opposition, I think that this has the potential of being the closest game of the week. I'm super excited to see this matchup. Pheo' piloted a fairly unimaginative team to great success against one of the competitions best, and used DD Mence so I see no flaws in their team selection. On the complete opposite spectrum, mikmer brought thief heracross and curse pert, two sets I really like. Just like mikmer's first week, I'm gonna cop out and put it as a 50-50 matchup with mikmer in favor because I like Italian food.

 

[watermess]

[CLA] johnnyg2 vs Teclis [TIG]
55-45
Gotta favour Johnny here, teclis played brilliantly as ever last game Vs mdragon and I've always been a supporter of his, but predicting against such dominant recent tour showings in CI5 from Johnny can't be right.

[WOL] Star vs altina [BIG]
50-50 - highlight match
Altina and starmaster have traded blow for blow in the recent classic playoffs and callous invitational so this should be an exciting, bo1, no other teirs involved rematch. If we are going just off PR ranking star does better, but Altina has proved time and time again that he lives for these big high skill games! Who will be the biggest 0-2 upset of the season so far? Time will tell!

[RAI] Sadlysius vs Ojama [CRY]
35-65
Sadlysius really had us all rilled up last week, after narrowly missing meteor mash on bliss to unfortunately not cause the biggest upset of this tournement so far! Who would have expected the most expensive player to almost lose to a 3k week 1! It shows sadly has plenty up his sleeve, but as we saw last week, ojama hasn't lost a step, this might be the underrated banger of the week.

[SHA] Pheo' vs mikmer [SCO]
35-65
Impeccable showing from the mikman last week showing he makes a great combo with roro, pheo also made a strong debut and brought a nice team choice presumably with support of teammate jirachee? but despite requiring a meteor mash miss to find his footing in the endgame of his battle Vs altina, he has proven he has some really good moves in order to close out that game. Hopefully we see a clean Victor come out on top!

 

[McMeghan]

I'm gonna try to make a weekly post about the team usage and the games that took place. As a warning, it might be all over the place.

The Games

Altina vs Pheo
I didn't like Pheo's team at all, I thought it lacked either a trapper, BP on Celebi or Spikes to break through defensive structures, and it showed as Pheo couldnt really get past Starm/Skarm/Bliss, esp with Dug support. Altina definitely had the better team imo (nothing to do with that 6 being from me btw...). However, Pheo played to his outs and Altina butchered the endgame quite badly and ended up losing.

M Dragon vs Teclis
Both teams were interesting. I've used something similar to what MDragon brought quite a bit and it's solid. Teclis had a very clean game though. The turn 1 HP Fire into Spin set MDragon back quite a bit and he was pretty weak to that particular Ttar set. Teclis played it perfectly and was very patient with it. Most people dance first and then Grass the Pert. He did the contrary and set up a winning endgame with impressive accuracy. There was a small chance of MDragon winning without the flinch at the end considering we know Teclis' last was MixMence fwiw.

ABR vs Sadlysius
ABR brought a standard TSS5+Zapdos and Sadly probably expected that considering he brought SkarmMag, which is traditionally a good call into TSS. However he took a more offensive approach with the Meta/Gyarados setup and it would have probably paid off if Mash connected against Blissey. ABR's choice to go with cleric Blissey almos cost him the game as he couldn't status the Gyara at the end. Props to the way Sadly played as he was very weak to Zapdos with Spikes up (results of going with Celebi as the SpDef sponge in a SkarmMag team) but played offensively enough to be in a win position.

Ojama vs starmaster
One of the most interesting game of the tournament probably. Hard fought on both end. I'd say Ojama had a unfavorable matchup with the Gar-less Skarm into Knock Off + SpinMie but played very well to make progress regardless and forced starmaster's hand, notably thanks to the ToxTtar. However star turned up the heat when he was getting behind and the Knock Off on Zapdos was pretty big to set up his Metagross wincon. Very lucky endgame from Ojama to take the game. I also think Ojama cheated a bit in the builder with that Magneton choice as it left his team very open to DDer + Mag, pretty much entirely relying on bulky Metagross to handle them. On the other hand, star had a solid take on HariSpin Bulky Offense, not the easiest team to build and pilot.

mikmer vs johnnyg2
johnnyg2 brought the now known Steelix Aero Spikes team that has been somewhat popularized in the recent months by ABR/star (is this where I insert the fact that I helped ABR make this 6 a while back?). I like that team in the fact that it really plays into Steelix's strengths, altho I find it too reliant on Spikes to make progress, not to mention that Celebi as the water answer is always dangerous into some Cune set, especially with Steelix being complete fodder over something like Metagross. mikmer on the hand brought a nice take on MagOffense in my opinion, with that CursePert/Hera combo.
Regarding the game itself, I think johnnyg2 overpredicted in the Ttar vs Mag and lost a good asset for the game there. Meanwhile mikmer could have made his life easier if he timed the Thief better by hitting Steelix to enable Mence/Meta. However, he made up with it by playing very well with Intimidate + Metagross around Steelix. As a result, the Meta got past Celebi which was the only stop to CursePert in that team.

The Teams

• The numbers: 6 Spikes (5 Skarm/1 Forre), 5 Spin (5 Starmie), 3 Mag, 1 Dug, 9 Tyranitar
• Very Physical heavy week, almost no special attacker abuse beside two RoarZap + Spikes. Pheo had SuperBi + Zapdos technically, but it was mostly to open DDtar and DDMence.
• 7 Metagross, impressive showing. Lot of people are experimenting with Protect Gross as their rock resist with some back-up as it can be dangerous vs DDers in some conditions.
• Magneton and Starmie quite popular this week to deal with the ever meta-centric Skarmory, surprising lack of Claydol.
• 0 Jirachi, definitely an outlier but worth mentionning. Surprising lack of ZapDug too, given the playstyle's popularity.

 

[Siglut]

saturday night and 0 adv games so far means I still have time to post some predictions

[WOL] Star vs altina [BIG]
50-50
100% agree with watermess on this one. Hard to not bold star at this point, his play's looked nothing but immaculate recently, but altina's been on an absolute tear and I'm confident he'll bounce back after a rough week 1. Definitely excited for this one.

[RAI] Sadlysius vs Ojama [CRY]
45-55
Ojama started off really hot last week against star only to falter late in the game and recieve a couple timely crits. Sadly's a fantastic player and if Ojama repeats the mistakes of week 1 he'll be stuck in another rough spot. I also thing Sadly (with Dizno's support) may try to take advantage of Ojama's teambuilding tendencies more strongly than Star and BKC did week 1, but nonetheless I think Ojama will repeat more of the first half of last week's game than the second so I'm giving him the edge here.

[RUI] M Dragon vs ABR [TYR]
40-60
Wouldn't be surprised at all to see an upset here, but it'd be ridiculous not to predict in favor of abr at this point. I think M dragon and Watermess will likely fail to find a hole in ABR's teambuilding large enough to fit into and it'll be up to M dragon's playing ability, which I think as we all know by now he has plenty of.

[SHA] Pheo' vs mikmer [SCO]
30-70
I don't know if I've seen a lot of games from Pheo that looked like convincing wins, and Mikmer's shown himself to be one of the premier ADVers of the last couple years. Pheo pulled the upset last week, up to them to prove it wasn't a fluke. I might have to eat these words by the end of the season, but I think the power rankings (for once) got something right putting him in the last slot.

 

[Colteor]

Week 2 usage stats!

+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Zapdos             |    7 |  70.00% |  57.14% |
| 1    | Skarmory           |    7 |  70.00% |  42.86% |
| 3    | Jirachi            |    4 |  40.00% |  50.00% |
| 3    | Tyranitar          |    4 |  40.00% |  50.00% |
| 3    | Dugtrio            |    4 |  40.00% |  50.00% |
| 3    | Suicune            |    4 |  40.00% |  50.00% |
| 3    | Metagross          |    4 |  40.00% |  50.00% |
| 8    | Gengar             |    3 |  30.00% | 100.00% |
| 8    | Celebi             |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 8    | Claydol            |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 11   | Swampert           |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 11   | Starmie            |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 11   | Flygon             |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 11   | Blissey            |    2 |  20.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Venusaur           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Charizard          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Aerodactyl         |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Jynx               |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Machamp            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Moltres            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Magneton           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Salamence          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 15   | Jolteon            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |

(Check the OP for overall usage stats)

 

[Colteor]

Week 3 is here! The weekly matchups are as follows:

[BIG] Altina vs Dizno [RAI]
vs
[TYR] ABR vs johnnyg2 [CLA]
vs
[CRY] Ojama vs M Dragon [RUI]
vs
[SCO] mikmer vs Teclis [TIG]
vs
[SHA] Jirachee vs Star [WOL]
vs ​

 

[Noglastica]

Week 3 Predictions:

Altina vs Dizno
70-30
I think Altina is a strong favorite here. Last week they brought a very interesting zard venu team and ended up winning and playing well. I don't really get benching Sadly in Week 3 as their two opponents were Ojama and ABR and he performed well in both despite losing both games.

ABR vs johnnyg2
70-30
Another game that I think ABR can win (shockingly), johnny got brutally haxed last game out so I can't really critique his play at all. Evidently, he is also on a mission with Altina to make sure every viable mon gets usage with what would have been an interesting machamp team. ABR played a long, patient game against M Dragon with a somewhat standard superman team. I'll be honest, it was the only battle I didn't rewatch before writing this.

Ojama vs M Dragon
60-40
I think this is gonna be a good game, M Dragon has an unfortunate 0-2 start despite having a decent first two games. Ojama is on the opposite end with a 2-0 start, getting lucky G1 and playing well G2. I don't have a huge amount to say here, should be a good game, excited to see what they both bring despite having brought fairly standard teams each.

mikmer vs Teclis
55-45
Another close game, Teclis is currently 2-0 and I still haven't fully bought into them. I think a win here and Teclis, with a 3-0 start, really shows they're going to be a dominant force for the rest of SPL. mikmer was somewhat unlucky in their Week 2 game where he brought a joltspikes team and struggled to play from behind with an unlucky start. I think this will be the closest of this weeks games. This should also be a good one.

Jirachee vs Star
30-70
If I didn't get the Sadly substitution, I really don't get this one. I checked to see if Pheo' was playing a different tier but no, they're just gone. Despite beating two of the upper end talents in the first two weeks, Pheo' is replaced with Jirachee. In all honesty, I don't understand the replacement here. Star needs a win here to bounce back from an unfortunate 0-2 start and I think they can get it, despite not a very strong first two weeks.

 

[McMeghan]

Week 2 post

The Games

johnnyg2 vs Teclis
Honestly this game was RNG nonsense, johnny suffered way too many setbacks, effectively losing 4 Pokemons to crits, 3 of them being relevant, and having another one frozen without being able to do anything. DDTar in particular should have done a lot more and would have opened Teclis to Suicune quite well.

Regarding the teams, we got two offenses powered by the very popular SubPass Zapdos + Dugtrio. Teclis going full special route and johnnyg2 having a very original take on FighterDug + Special finish. He explained on Discord that the Machamp slot was there to have a solid Rock resist that wasn't blanked by Gengar (unlike Loom), opening up the Ttar set, which makes a lot of sense here with that defensive Jirachi. Teclis had a pretty unusual Psy/HP Jirachi on a team where you usually find SubCM to beat Blissey, but I suspect that this choice was made to better combat johnny's tendencies.

Altina vs starmaster
Pretty sick game from two iconic players of the current ADV landscape. starmaster's team was very resilient with a number of good offensive tools between Zap/Meta/Dug but Altina came prepared with a Charizard that was poised to punish the current trend of Skarm/Meta/Bliss as a defensive basis. Fire Blast went uncontested and Beat Up was much more flexible to deal with Bliss than the usual Focus Punch. It also got used early with full power to remove her from the battle. From there, Altina kept pressing his advantage despite star's best efforts to come back in the game.

Regarding the teams, Venusaur was an interesting choice from Altina and I really like it. With HP Ice in particular, it's pretty good vs the current Zapdos' that often forgo Twave for Sub/BP/Roar atm, and Sleep Powder is an offensive boon that cannot be replicated by Celebi. Charizard's ability to take Blissey head on showed its advantages over Moltres in this game as well. On star's side, the team had great defensive synergy, with Thief Skarmory enabling Claydol/Meta and Roar Zapdos patching weaknesses that those teams can suffer from, such as Suicune.

Ojama vs Sadlysius
Sadly's intimidating SPL start continued as he had to play another legend of the game in Ojama after last week's ABR. Sadly had a very good early with Taunt Skarm setting up hazards while denying Ojama's, but a very risky hard Tyranitar got punished badly by Ojama's instant Hydro Pump, effectively preventing Sadly from ever trying to force a Crunch/Pursuit 50/50 on Ojama's spinner and best Moltres check. HP Ice Zap also proved to be difficult to deal with, especially Spikes down, and it is the second week in a row for Sadly to face it with the Electric check being Celebi without spin support. Sadly's MixRachi could have done more damage if RNG was on its side, but the set showed its downsides when it got taken down by Tyranitar after Dpunch miss, leaving Sadly wide open to Starmie and Skarmory in the endgame. Ojama played a very solid game and used his Starmie intelligently throughout the match, first by avoiding the Ttar trap and then by avoiding needless damage, attacking/spinning with very good timing.

Regarding the teams, despite the look of it, Ojama's 6 was kinda unusual, we rarely see OffCelebi+OffMie in this kind of composition. Proved very effective here with spikes support as Sadly was ill prepared for special attackers. Sadly's 6 is a known one from Vapi, it has its advantages but Celebi as the special answer showed its problems again, especially without Spin as it got hard pressured by both Zapdos and Starmie. Jirachi could/should have done more damage before going down, ibut this set forces you roll the dice vs Tyranitar and it didn't pay off this time.

MDragon vs ABR
A very close and intense game from two veterans. MDragon came prepared for ABR's tendencies, with a strong anti-Spikes strategy, but ABR always comes equipped with the necessary means to get his strategy going and it showed. Despite MDragon using MagDol, ABR had SpDef DBond Gengar to give himself a chance of preserving his main source of pressure. MDragon's spikes were a good addition to a playstyle that tends to lack a good source of offense despite how resilient it can be, but they weren't that good into ABR's team. ABR had a hard game to play as he pretty much needed to keep at least one Spike down if he wanted to make progress against Cune+Bliss, and he achieved it when Gengar was traded with Claydol, which also enabled Aero and Restalk Zap. MDragon at least had CBMence to try to find openings, but it was a tall order considering it was facing 2 Protect mons and Zapdos that forced Rock Slides, which never OHKOs. The star of the show was RestalkZap pretty much blanking MDragon's team and creating an endgame situation where Aero swept thanks to the Jirachi spikes sack that ABR cleverly kept. Worth mentionning that both the Tbolt Para and the EQ crit kinda removed MD's chances, but tbh MDragon could have played a little cleaner with Suicune.

Regarding the teams, MDragon had a rather standard MagDolCune team, with CBMence for special attackers and Skarm to give himself spikes support that make RoarCune and CBMence much better. ABR on the other hand had a sandless TSS which I liked if only because of his Gengar spread and set, that always gives him a chance to keep the Spikes that are much needed to make the team work. RestTalk Zap is a demon of set in these structures, and it showed here.

mikmer vs Pheo
Much like johnny Teclis, this game was nonsense on mikmer's side, with a devastating early against Pheo between the misses and the crit/roll. mikmer's choices looked questionnable at time, but considering how behind he was, it made sense that he tried to play into Pheo's mistakes. Unforunately for him, they didn't really pay off.

Regarding the teams, Pheo had a Special Offense launched by Jynx+ZapDug support, featuring Metagross over the usual Jirachi slot. mikmer on the other hand had a very fast Dual Elec offense, geared toward facing other Offenses. Jolteon with Spikes being a pretty good tool against ZapDug, especially considering how most of them don't run a status move anymore. Not much else to say considering what was shown in this game.

The Teams

• The numbers: 7 Spikes (all Skarm), 5 Spin (3 Claydol, 2 Starmie), 4 Dug, 1 Mag and only 4 Tyranitar.
• Lot of players made the choice to not run Tyranitar on otherwise known structures to feature it (ABR Superman, mikmer Double Elec, even starmaster's SkarmMetaDug often run Ttar). Was it a fish into facing Ttar or just the conclusion that Ttar wasn't needed for their team? Who knows.
• Claydol, Suicune and Jirachi are back on the menu, as expected. ZapDug was also very popular this week. Everything's back to normal.
• If last week was very physical heavy, it wasn't the case here. Lot of Special power across the board.
• Zapdos and Skarmory shone with a 70% usage. Both are incredible offense enablers in their own right.
• SkarmGar is barely used, and we can wonder if we will see some adaptation to this trend. Swampert is also "only" at 35% usage so far, quite below its standards.

 

[watermess]

Week 3 predicts

• [BIG] Altina vs Dizno [RAI]
  55 - 45

Certainly an exciting game, long time contender Dizno comes up against hardened staple Altina, Dizno's general lack of tournament achievements is not to be taken as an indication of his talent, being a long time student of the tier and having some great runs when he has bothered to play in tours, such as his impressive 2020 adv cup run, I give Dizno an edge in the builder as his work is less well documented and he has support from sadly who is very close to Altina, but Altina has shown he puts down results when they are important, this is one of the weeks understated highlights imo.

• [TYR] ABR vs johnnyg2 [CLA]
  55 - 45

So far this season has been a light brush with 0-2, johnnyg2, on the other hand, has not had the fortune to say the same, Their records however don't speak for how close this game has the potential to be, johnny has a high ceiling in both battle and in the builder and if he can find it I think ABR will have his work cut out for him the third week on the run!

• [SCO] mikmer vs Teclis [TIG]
  50 -50

Both have had a powerful start to the season, I don't know who to favour, as I said in my Prs pre-season Teclis has the power to pop off if he gets better luck than he did last year, and that's exactly what has been happening, meanwhile, mikmer experienced some of that poor luck himself last week, but showed himself to be a huge threat week one as expected, The two are both skilled and evenly matched making this a must see!

• [SHA] Jirachee vs Star [WOL]
  40 - 60

I ranked the sharks last for their adv core but, tbh even with no small amount of luck, they are proving to put down some numbers, id be being facetious if I said I didn't expect star to win, but I dont expect jirachee to go down without a fight, and I'm certainly looking forward to seeing what team he brings to the match.


Buckle up buttercups, its shaping up to be a fun week!

 

[Siglut]

[BIG] Altina vs Dizno [RAI]
65-35
Altina really showed up last week, brought the coolest team of the tour so far and pulled out a nice win against arguably the top player of the pool. Against a relatively unproven (although highly talented) player like Dizno, I'm certainly picking Altina here. It's pokemon and anything can happen, and I know these two have played a ton on ladder, so this can go either way. Not the most lopsided match of the week, but I'll be moderately surprised if Dizno wins.

[CRY] Ojama vs M Dragon [RUI]
60-40
Ojama's shown he's up to snuff the last couple weeks, and although M Dragon's been on the receiving end of some bad luck (and Ojama's been on the giving end) his play hasn't looked on the same level as Ojama's. Most likely scenario here is that these boomers continue the streak they've been having, with Ojama advancing to 3-0 and M Dragon falling to 0-3.

[SCO] mikmer vs Teclis [TIG]
45-55
I'd give mikmer the edge in play here, but I think Teclis (with some help from callous) is gonna find a good matchup here and continue winning. Despite being the closest matchup this week in my opinion, I don't have a whole lot to say here.

[SHA] Jirachee vs Star [WOL]
30-70
Star's gone 0-2 into two of the strongest players in the pool, and he'll be looking to start a comeback run here. Jirachee's no slouch, but Star's gotta be the clear favorite in this one, especially with BKC's support, who probably knows Phil's tendencies better than anyone.

 

[Colteor]

Week 3 usage stats!

+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Tyranitar          |    8 |  80.00% |  50.00% |
| 2    | Metagross          |    5 |  50.00% |  60.00% |
| 2    | Gengar             |    5 |  50.00% |  40.00% |
| 2    | Swampert           |    5 |  50.00% |  40.00% |
| 5    | Skarmory           |    4 |  40.00% |  50.00% |
| 6    | Celebi             |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 6    | Blissey            |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 6    | Aerodactyl         |    3 |  30.00% |  33.33% |
| 6    | Zapdos             |    3 |  30.00% |   0.00% |
| 10   | Snorlax            |    2 |  20.00% | 100.00% |
| 10   | Starmie            |    2 |  20.00% | 100.00% |
| 10   | Claydol            |    2 |  20.00% | 100.00% |
| 10   | Magneton           |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 14   | Milotic            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Flygon             |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Smeargle           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Blaziken           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Salamence          |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Cloyster           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Jolteon            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Gyarados           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 14   | Heracross          |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 14   | Porygon2           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 14   | Jirachi            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 14   | Breloom            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 14   | Forretress         |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |

 

[Colteor]

Week 4 is upon us! Here are the weekly matchups:

[RUI] M Dragon vs Altina [BIG]
vs
[RAI] Sadlysius vs Pheo' [SHA]
vs
[WOL] Star vs mikmer [SCO]
vs
[CLA] johnnyg2 vs Ojama [CRY]
vs
[TIG] Teclis vs ABR [TYR]
vs ​

 

[Noglastica]

Week 4:
I've progressively increased by predictions record to the point where I'm expected to get 5-0 to continue the trend. Failure to do so will result in me stopping these predictions (certainly unrelated to increasing amounts of work). This week has some of the clostest matchups in the tournament, so I hope we're in for 5 close games.

[RUI] M Dragon vs Altina [BIG]
35-65
Altina has looked very good these past two weeks, and I look forward to seeing another interesting team. M Dragon picked up a good first win against Ojama last week, so this should be a very good match.

[RAI] Sadlysius vs Pheo' [SHA]
40-60
Pheo and Sadlysius were both benched last week, and are hoping to make a strong return. 0-2 Sadly is hoping to get their first win, while 2-0 Pheo is hoping to keep the run going. Just based on record, I'm going to pick Pheo here, but this should also be a good match.

[WOL] Star vs mikmer [SCO]
45-55
Picking mikmer here because Italy knows best. Certainly an upset prediction here, but I think mikmer is one of the few who can pull off big upsets week in and week out. Also, mikmer is just the goat so I dont feel bad with this pick.

[CLA] johnnyg2 vs Ojama [CRY]
40-60
Close game, hard to pick against the Kingpin (despite having done so in W1), this should be a good match. Super excited to see what johnny brings this week.

[TIG] Teclis vs ABR [TYR]
40-60
I'm so unbelievably tempted to pick Teclis here, but I'm holding off on my inevitable ABR upset game. Despite a loss to mikmer last week from Teclis, I think that this will still be a close game between the two.

 

[McMeghan]

Week 3 recap

The Games

Altina vs Dizno
Teams: Altina stuck to his current tendency of using a team around the core of Skarm/Claydol/Protect Metagross. I'm a fan of this approach as it brings a lot of offensive/defensive options between Spikes, Spin, Boom and a lot of sturdy (mostly physical) resists. Bliss compliments it well for special walling, Blaziken is an odd pick but is a known TSS breaker and ran into the match-up Altina was probably expecting. DDMence rounds out the team by cleaning the field and giving it some speed + another rool vs Special attackers.
Dizno had a more typical TSS, altho quite aggressive in its composition with Taunt Skarm/Breloom's sleep and Gengar to keep the spikes. Jirachi compliments it with its typing and Wish support. Breloom can fix the DDTtar issue but DDMence is definitely a threat once the boys get chipped a bit.

Game: Blaziken immediately goes ham on Dizno and gets an impactful Burn against Dbond Gar who's otherwise a good panic button to get rid of Blissey/TSS breaker. Taunt Skarm proves to be a bit difficult to handle for Altina but at least Tbolt Blissey does a good job at preventing free stay/WishPass. Altina does a good job at getting Blaziken on the field safely and Fire Blast now burns Zapdos. At this point, Dizno's already wide open to a DDMence sweep through the chip on Zap/Gengar and Skarmory being Toxic-less. Altina later manages to get yet another opening for Blaziken who now takes down one of the few Pokemon who'd be able to withstand Mence in Jirachi. On turn 34, Altina makes a questionable play and doesn't DD with a healthy Mence who was poised to win the game from there. Hard punished by Rock Slide dodge+Peck crit on turn 36. The game could get dicey for Altina from here, but his Metagross being faster than Dizno's Ttar gives him a major upside going forward, and the burn on Zapdos prevents Dizno from ever really getting back in the game.

Final Note: An interesting game, Altina's mostly being in the driver seat with Blaziken + DDMence vs Dizno's 6, well helped by the burns which kinda gave Dizno no chance as his two main disruptors were DBond Gar and Zap into Loom combos.

ABR vs johnnyg2
Teams: ABR brought a Smeargle Offense, a structure we've seen here and there in the past. I'm a fan of his Metagross set (EQ/Tpunch/Grass) on such teams, as it has a very good coverage for most defensive answers to punish defensive pivoting with the Spikes. The odd choice at first glance is the Starmie over the typical Aero, but it does help the team vs some of its worst problems, such as DDMence, Metagross or strong physical backbone. It's also very well supported by the Metagross who's good at finding Zapdos/Celebi. Starmie also still acts as a solid cleaner in such a set-up. Blissey can become tough to handle and it showed in this game.
johnny on the other hand had his take on a team marcop brought in the past, which was faster in its nature as it used CB Slaking and CB Hera to open an Agility Metagross sweep. In this case, we have Meta/Mag/P2/TW Bliss supporting a SD Heracross, with Gyarados bringing its defensive typing to the table and cleaning if need be. I think the team is a bit soft vs Physical Sweepers and Gyarados is kind of an odd-ball here, as it usually shines when it's complimenting another DDer.

Game: Very fast paced game with a lot of gambles around Explosions for both sides. I think both did quite well as ABR never hastily clicked his trading moves and often found the right targets while leaving chip behind, whereas johnnyg2 didn't pivot needlessly with a team that'd otherwise crumble upon the Spikes pressure. On turn 22, I will assume that Blissey's FlameThrower had a roll to kill Meta that it didn't get after 6% of Leftovers, because otherwise, clicking Twave there would have been much better. The endgame was admirable on ABR's side, as he kept a clear head and immediatly adapted to the situation by first pursuing a fish win over a tie, which he had all the luxury to attempt as P2 was never gonna win this duel, and he got rewarded with a lot of full paras, to the dismay of johnny.

Ojama vs MDragon
Teams: Ojama brought a GoodMon6TM, with a CMPass route in Celebi to Zapdos/Gar/Pert and maybe even Ttar if it had HPGrass. I'm not the biggest fan of these teams personally, I'd probably try to include Spikes or Dug in there.
MDragon had a team built around CBGon with Mag and Pursuit support, complimented by the defensive core of Milo/Cele. BP Cele here is pretty good at oiling the team together with slow Pass entries. I do think that's the kind of team that can crumble hard in the face of Spikes, especially if not from Skarmory, but even 1 Spike + any breaker would have potentially been hard to handle.

Game: CB Flygon is known to be good against Special Offense, and it showed up big time here, perfectly complimented by the Celebi to get it in the field scotfree. The turn 1 trade of Metagross/Milotic was honestly not very good for Ojama as his team could abuse Milotic through Celebi. We don't know Meta set though, and a CB variant would have just impaled itself on Magneton either way. Beside that, Ojama was turbowalled by Celebi and the only Pokemon able to pressure it were Gengar, who'd just get BP'd into Ttar and Celebi, who was just getting BP'd into CB Flygon. Ojama's bulky spreads gave him a fighting chance though as Celebi survived the HP Bug and got to pass to Gengar. However, Gengar was too offensive and died to Tyranitar's Crunch despite the SpDef boost. Ojama still did great by abusing MDragon's passive team and managed to DD twice with his bulky DDTar, tanking CBFlygon's EQ. Ojama had to rely on a flinch and didn't get it, netting Mdragon's victory.

mikmer vs Teclis
Teams: mikmer showed up with an odd CloyDol team, where he replaced the commonly seen Zapdos for a Starmie. Interesting choice on his part to get some speed but he turned out to be massively ground weak as a result, as Claydol was the only Pokemon able to pivot into such hits. Zapdos is also usually good there to take hits and BPing into the offensive threats. I'd say this team was a bit greedy as a result and needed very clean plays to make progress, but with all the Booming threats, the game can be fast to the point where the defensive weaknesses aren't exploited. Worth mentionning is that Starmie does help against DDMence and Heracross, two big problems of the Zapdos variant. Teclis on his side has a very standard Forret team featuring Aero cleaner. Solid all around. Worth mentionning the more defensive nature of it by picking Blissey and Celebi where a lot people slide a Gengar.

Game: mikmer makes excellent use of his Mix Metagross to first dent the Swampert (helped by luck though). The Cloyster then comes on Pert and get a Spikes up, which is always a bit annoying for Forret team as those, and particulary Teclis', are grounded for the most part. Metagross makes another entry on Forretress' Spikes and mikmer predicts hard by not clicking HP Fire and finding Celebi with Mash, getting immediately lucky with a Mash raise. The Metagross even ends up taking Celebi out without taking any damage and dodging Leech. Teclis is forced to go on the offensive, and knowing he's quite behind, makes a good read to catch mikmer's Offensive Claydol with D-E Aero. mikmer tries to immediately punish that lock with DDTtar but Teclis plays very well here by doubling to Forretress. Forretress prevents DDTtar from sweeping but is pretty much out of the game as a result. mikmer makes good use of a disposable Cloyster to take out Blissey, at which point Starmie's looking great. However, so does Teclis Aerodactyl after Claydol is removed on turn 17 and the team composition bites back to reveal the lack of ground switch. mikmer imo makes a very clever move here by clicking Spin over EQ, as he knows the Metagross will make use of a clear field to get Leftovers back and could get out of Aero's EQ range. mikmer just does that on turn 21 with an insanely good Metagross double on Forry sack which enables it to get two round of leftovers needed to be out of EQ range, allowing him to clean the game with Meta and Starmie.

Final Note: mikmer got lucky to open the Swampert/Celebi core but had to play very well with Metagross to get there before suffering too much damage and getting cleaned by Aero. Teclis also played very well from behind to come back into the game and prevent CB Aero locks abuse.

starmaster vs Jirachee
Teams: star brought with the good old fast Spikes abuse and was probably expecting something offensive considering the presence of both Jolteon and Aero. Jirachee had a similar idea but went with Zapdos over Jolteon and a very disruptive Gengar set to give him some tools should he face a more defensive team.

Game: star gets a strong advantage early with Taunt Skarmory and Roar Jolteon preventing SubZap from making progress. Jirachee missplays by not weakening the Jolt on turn 6 on a very obvious Roar but at least it's Aero coming out. Both are stuck in a speedtie, but Jirachee doesn't really have anything for Grass Jolt, so I'd say it was fairer on him to risk it. However, he gets insanely behind as Aero loses the tie and dies on the spot. Jirachee then makes a good Skarm switch on turn 8 to get more Spikes on the field and enable his Gengar/Ttar further. He even gets back in the game when Ice Punch freezes star's Tyranitar. I also really like Jirachee's play of using Dbond into Boom to force star's hand and I believe star kinda missplays here by not going Skarmory. With Jolteon out, jirachee gets quite ahead as SubZapdos punishes the Skarm sack by Subbing and getting two kills. At this point, Jirachee is poised to win, but star's offensive Gengar manages to both kill Zapdos at 57% and dodge a Rock Slide to take the game back as HP Grass cleans the field.

Final Note: Very enjoyable game where both guys played their out in an offensive fest despite RNG not always going their way. Jirachee was pretty clean despite being the underdog on paper going into this game.

The Teams

• The numbers: 7 Spikes (4 Skarm, 1 Smear, 1 Forret, 1 Cloy), 4 Spinners (2 Claydol, 1 Starmie, 1 Forret), 2 Mags, 0 Dug, 9 Ttars.
• High team diversity this week, with a few BL/unfavored OU showing up. Seems like players are starting to experiment more as the tournament keeps going, maybe trying to avoid patterns too.
• Jirachi is notoriously used much less than in its previous tournaments. Suicune seems to be out of favor too. Salamence is also not used as much as usual.
• Starmie keeps being popular. Spinners in general show up in half the games, which makes sense as Spikes are used 70% of the time on average so far. Forret drastically fell out since last year; Skarm is where it's at.
• Gengar is also making up for the first week lack of usage. Worth noting is that we saw two DBond and two super offensive sets this week, both variants typically not being the norm.
• Ojama's team is the 4th Spike-less and Trap-less team of the tour.

 

[watermess]

week 4 predicts!

• [RAI] Sadlysius vs Pheo' [SHA] - Dark horse highlight
  60-40

sadly has had a great season play wise so far, clicking pretty much all the right moves, and given neutral luck would be at least 1-1 vs 2 of the strongest adv teams in the pool, pheo who i will dub abr jr. has played pretty cleanly and ran into some great luck on the side, putting him at the inverse of sadly 2-0, that said i have to favour the longer standing adver with more experience and a great hand in the builder, it should be exciting to see which of the two double 3k cores finds the upper hand and takes this one!

• [WOL] Star vs mikmer [SCO] - Highlight
  50-50

Starmaster is Starmaster, while not the strongest start to the season, he's still a great player, i think this has great upset potential tho, seeing as mikmer is showing himself to be one of the strongest players on the block right now, and for anyone who disputes his ability to take down these high ability players, can just look to his callous invitational run where he beat several adv household names in bo3 format. certainly an exciting game between two great players.

• [CLA] johnnyg2 vs Ojama [CRY]
  35-65

no shade to johnny who has shown time and again the past that he is dependable for adv slots, but he's not been having a great season, i hope that he finds his feet soon, maybe recently defeated ojama will be the chance he needs to find his momentum, equally ojama has had a great season so far, piloting even the difficult matchup last weak within 30% chance of a win, if johnny wants to make his comeback this week, he has his work cut out for him!

• [TIG] Teclis vs ABR [TYR]
  50-50

ABR scrapes by another week, testament to his ability to recognise finer details and be back in the game at the slightest chance of hax, teclis however got the short end of the stick last week, bringing back echos of last year, the historically unlucky, vs the anime protagonist, while both have played some immaculate games and I'm too hesitant to predict against either, i would not be surprised if this were decided by the roll of a dice, definitely one worth watching!