Hi again, over the last couple of hours I've been in OU Council attempting to detail my full thoughts on Volcarona in this generation. Since it is already formatted pretty neatly for a Smogon post, I thought I would copy paste what I said into this thread (some of the paragraph breaks may look a bit awkward because Discord messages have a 2000 character limit).
stresh — Today at 16:55
general thoughts on volc in the last 7 months that still mostly apply post-home:
- imo the big difference that has been caused by a variety of factors in this gen is that the practicality of volc sets has increased massively. The way I've seen it for a while is that you can basically always run morning sun + boots on volc and still pick and choose your counters in this gen. I think you pretty much cannot go wrong with QD/Flame/Morning Sun/Tera Blast with whatever tera type hits a few of the mons that can try to kill you back.
This is a significant upgrade on old gens volc where it had to go to obscure coverage or item slots like gen 8 LO Volc in order to get the same effect. Being able to run Boots Morning Sun/bulkier spreads etc allows it to have more general utility to compensate for the matchups where it doesnt win. On top of that, the nature of tera metagames means that the offensive teams volc is typically found on find it easier to get away with teamslots that may have some weak matchups - if volc isnt gonna win, there's probably still something else on the team that can tera and break through shit.
- My policy throughout pre-home was usually one check for Tera Blast Fairy and Will-o-Wisp with a secondary that prevents losing to Tera Ground (this can be a generally bulky mon not weak to Fire/Ground or some prio combination). Ftr I hated having to do this and I'm not sure I would have put up with it if it wasnt for the fact that some of the checks were just really good in general (like Dnite and the fires), combined with the fact that the meta was just annoying in many ways related to not having much choice in mons.
It's worth noting that Volc continued adapting even through this. Tera Ground started to fall off towards the end of pre-Home as its previous best matchup (fat balance) started running Dondozo, and it found itself generally weaker into the multiple prio offenses and bulky offenses that ran the rest of the meta.
Something that popped up late in that meta which was usually much better suited than Tera Ground Volc was Tera Rock. You could essentially run the same set I mentioned earlier (QD Flame Tera Blast recovery) and achieve a hybrid of the best matchups of Tera Fairy and Tera Ground, killing Bax, owning CB Dnite in a lot of situations, and still wiping Fires and Tera Fires off the face of the earth. If that set had existed a few months earlier it would have had many more drawbacks in relation to Tera Ground, as Clodsire still existed, and Pex still ran Toxic. I'm not sure how likely it is that we'll consistently have enough of the "answers" to Volc accessible at the same time - I'm pretty convinced at this point that there's always going to be at least one very strong Volc set, probably multiple at most points in the meta. In this sense, I dont think meta adaptation will be enough to save the mon. That being said, there have been some constants within the meta that make Volc's life harder than the first few paragraphs would suggest. Firstly, prio mons and generally bulky mons have been everywhere for most of the gen. One of the things that has made certain teras awkward to click is the sequence of blowing your tera too early to take a kill -> getting revenged/forced out -> being stuck with an awkward type on a not particularly bulky mon, saddling you with a weird disadvantage as your tera is already gone. This can be avoided to an extent if you make sure to run the most practical sets at the time (i.e. ones best into bulky offense/offense with prio), but it's always a concern like with any early tera. General specially bulky mons like Ting-Lu and some variants of Gking can provide stop-gap switchins which, although they may technically lose on their own, are often able to delay volc sweeps until it's no longer feasible to pull off. Another thing that comes up a lot for me when using Volc is how flimsy its defensive utility really is.
The main defensive draw of Volcarona is being able to come in on Valiant/Ghold/sometimes Gambit or Zamazenta. Unfortunately, whenever you try to actually make the plays to act as a check to these things throughout the game, you open yourself up to various things going wrong. Booster Energy Valiant can break through regular Volc with both Cm and SD variants, often forcing you into the trade earlier than you actually wanted to make it. Gambit is a pretty risky thing to even try switching in on, but I have seen cases of people trying (
Yelodash vs MrBanana from wcop quals comes to mind). Zamazenta can pretty easily run Stone Edge which is another thing that gets in the way of your pre-Tera defensive utility. The combined factors from the last two paragraphs can make Volc really annoying to use as well as really annoying to play against. It generally feels like this mon creates a lot of variance whichever side you're on, which I guess is a point against it being in the meta, even if the chips often land against Volc's favour. I've written a lot here partially because I find it difficult to accurately describe what Volcarona's impact on the meta ends up looking like, and also because there are some aspects that I'm curious about in the post-Home meta compared to the pre-Home meta. For the later stages of the pre-Home meta, you could kinda rely on most teams at least having a Kingambit in terms of prio users, and usually 1-2 extra things that can prevent a Volc sweep. Nowadays with the greater variety, you might find more priority users available, but the combined usage of relevant anti-Volc priority might have gone down. It's hard to know how factors like this shake out early into the metagame. On top of this, we've just had screens go from a pretty irrelevant playstyle pre-Home to one of the main HO styles post-Home, and this can alleviate a lot of Volc's old weaknesses. Even with everything laid out in words, I'm still unsure of what to do with Volc.
The final thing I wanted to mention is the general state of the metagame and how it relates to Volc. There's no doubt in my mind that Volc invites guessing games in a Tera metagame, or that it heavily encourages a lot of prio and anti-setup on your teams, or that it introduces these negative factors into games a lot more regularly than it did in previous generations. Despite this, I find myself looking at the metagame and wondering if this is almost an inevitability. There are definitely some positive skills that can both be associated with dealing with Volcarona AND dealing with the rest of the metagame. For example, the situations I mentioned when it comes to dealing with surprise Volc teras do also apply when it comes to dealing with greedy early teras (with short-term high reward). The general uncertainty around what Tera you're supposed to be playing around can still be found in many other mons, and even though these other mons have less variety in good tera types, when considered collectively this metagame state looks to label an understanding of weighted guesswork and complex risk reward tables as a key skill. Having played this gen at a high level very consistently, I can say that these aspects can definitely be described as skill - I mean this in the sense that there's still a reasonable idea of "generally better choices" and "generally worse choices", and if you repeat the generally better choice over a large portion of games you will get a better winrate. However, I don't think this automatically makes the skillset of the current meta a good one to be rewarding. This is the only meta where "I did the right thing and lost this particular game
because of it" is a somewhat regular sentiment that I find upon analyzing my losses - usually what happens in other tiers is either "I did a bad thing in the builder or game and got punished" or "I did the right thing and the RNG didn't pan out". I'm unsure of how to handle a generation like this tiering-wise. Do you
a) Aim to reduce the most egregious offenders for these negative aspects for the meta and leave the rest be
b) Aim to remove the source of bad interactions in the first place so that they can be replaced with more reliable forms of skill expression
c) Try and let the dumb aspects of the generation harmonise with each other so that there is still a clear general trend of what skill looks like in the metagame, while accepting that it's not an ideal form of skill expression (i.e. "it's the charm of the gen" argument)
Personally I'm more in favour of b), and I think that this means ban tera. But it's not like a) and c) are unheard of strategies. Based on my limited experience of Gen 7 i'd say a) and c) describe most of Gen 7's tiering, whereas Gen 8 kinda avoided this conundrum by being a gen where the most broken things were broken mons (that subsequently got banned) and Dynamax which got banned very early.
(In reply to a statement by njnp about tera)
it's kinda like RNG management except RNG management is fixed and calculable
and tera guessing has way more vibes
I was very close to Tera darking in my
endgame vs lusa's bax
cause like to me it'd be the logical choice to at least have eq
and then a fairly reasonable choice to be Tera Ground if it was eq
but as it happens it was the fucking no coverage for steels set that some people liked for some reason
If I had tera dark kowtow'd and been hit with Tera Dragon glaive (as he clicked in the game) i would have lost my mind
I essentially lucked into the right play there and it's not even really my fault that it went down that way
and that's like a relatively simple 2v2 endgame (at least when it comes to identifying the possibilities)