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NOC Tracker Jailer Follower - Game Thread - Night 4!

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TOWN
genisu
Peum
Celever
jalmont
NULL
ShyPebble havent seen him talk tm, nothing of note though

phoopes didnt really like the slot d1 but the d2 posting is slightly improving
pulsar512b afk, which she does as either alignment
ImaginaryNeon always null
SCUM
AirC- hated his d1 iso, literally lied to try to get sm1 off of scum
8. Miyami~~~ immediately went on des, lowkey not sure about this one but what if its just bussing
Dead by Daylight: hated his posting yesterday, i remember giving reasoning so its weird that people are like he just voted for no reason.
8. Miyami~~~ immediately went on des, lowkey not sure about this one but what if its just bussing
i REALLY dont think the des wagon is clean completely, and ive seen dbd try to make these big risky plays that arent actually good before, so i think its most likely just him.
on another note, i think dbd vs celever is TvS and dbd is much scummier
 
Let me talk through this to myself Celever:

"I think it kind of looks shady to back off your opinion like this, feels like mafia trying to go for an easy misvote early, gauging the response of the thread, and then backing off once you realize no one's especially biting." -jalmont

jalmont has been "concerned" about me and Celever since D1, and his first post today was further concern about us "blitzing," followed by a vote for Celever. I don't think he's doing the fish, back off strategy. He's got a read and he's sticking to it, which I can respect, even if I disagree. Would love to hear more from him wrt what I've been posting about Celever vs. DBD being TvT.

"this is kind of the dichotomy that I think people have wrt des. if des!town, mafia is always going to try and leave them as an option for a vote. and it's not a bad plan, because from a town perspective i personally think there is value in voting des d1 early vs anyone else the mafia experts believe to be mafia based on the fact that on the balance d1 is kind of just a rand vote." -jalmont

Let's replace des with Celever for a second. If Celever is town (which I think he is), mafia are going to leave Celever as a voting option since there's pressure on him. Which means I think Celever is safe at night. Same with DBD if we don't lynch either of you two. I don't think there's value in voting for Celever though, because I'm convinced he's town even if he's tunneling on another guy I think is town. But mafia is going to leave anyone be if they're barking up the wrong tree. Since jalmont voted for Celever, I think he thinks Celever is scum, meaning jalmont is probably not scum.

Basically, here's my thought process:
You are town Celever
You are town barking up the wrong tree at another town.
If jalmont is mafia, he wants you to keep doing this, so he's not going to vote for you. He wants you to continue to distract and throw everyone off.
If jalmont is town, he wants to vote for you because he thinks you're scum.
Therefore, I read jalmont as town because of his vote for you.
 
genisu said:
Dead by Daylight: hated his posting yesterday, i remember giving reasoning so its weird that people are like he just voted for no reason.
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funny you say this and then get on AirC’s case for “lying to get ppl off scum” when this is a far more blatant lie

genisu said:
but honestly dbd is scummy just by playing the game these days, and eventually i have to be like wait his agenda is so obviously anti town that theres no way hes scum
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damn man, 1 bad game and it’s over. I’m sure Mr. perfect over here is a mafia genius
 
Celever said:
Don't write this off as OMGUS because I'm noticing something important here and just happen to be involved

The string of posts from DBD here is what's called pre-flipping, where your posts accidentally reveal that you know the alignment of a player or players. DBD's not scumreading me for the content of my posts, he's scumreading me for voting town (pulsar, who I assume is town due to these posts) and not the scum (des). Obviously I didn't know which was which faction, there were like 10 posts yesterday and most slots didn't have anything particularly AI, but DBD seemed to.

In particular the "I'm not voting pulsar when the vote is this fishy" the people voting pulsar were Celever and phoopes, the people voting des were Miyami and Evie. Two people per wagon is already basically under the bar where you can reasonably start thinking about the alignment of the people on the wagon as a determinant of where your vote should go -- like, you're looking at 4/12 (not inc yourself) players in the game, AND voting for someone not included in the 4/12. At full rand odds, one player in the 4 might be scum, but it's a totally randomly plucked 4 and actually the fact that those 4 were using their votes on D1 makes them townier than average for this game so the maths doesn't work out at all for this to be something town even thinks to do. The only way it makes sense to start pre-dissecting alignments like this is if you know where the alignments are, and know that relevant alignments are at least somewhat represented in this group. Which we know is at least true for des (one of the vote targets, not in the 4 itself) but probably it means that phoopes is the third scum here (if I'm right and DBD is scum).

The main reason why this is pre-flipping is the agenda of the posts, though. The most rationale DBD gave for his entire EoD posting being about me is "he seems unsure, I think it's coming from him being scum and knowing he's wrong". The trouble is that's an insane thing to say D1 lol. A player as experienced as DBD should know that in a pretty dead D1 there's extremely limited readable content to work from, and so people who don't have the answers will be unsure. What about my posting was less sure than others'? What about the people who were here but never voted? We just came out of a game where DBD survived a long time against a scumteam who waited until right before deadline to vote every day, and won in large part because this strategy was a blindspot for DBD and he townread all the scum doing this. You'd think when DBD now looks for people biding their time and being unsure, he'd look at the people using the same scum tactic as what only just beat him, but apparently not.

This isn't the content of someone trying to solve the game. It's the content of someone trying to pretend like he doesn't already know the answers, and not doing a good job of this pretending.

I'm probably tunnelled here. Last two scum are DBD and probably phoopes (phoopes has done nothing to deserve this but yk)
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this is an interesting post and makes me sort of feel celever towny dbd scummy but i will have to iso dbd to get a little more confident on this
 
ImaginaryNeon said:
Okay, now that I'm actually fully reading the thread with full attention, I'll say that if I was actually aware that this string of posts happened, I probably would've actually voted des lmao.
Like, respectfully, what the fuck is this?
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Peum said:
but yeah, I was going to vote des anyways, not because of policy but because she wasnt acting like her usual self. You can check how she usually gets desperate if she is accused of mafia as town, usually trying to explain to the best of her abilities, but on this one I feel like she just gave up? And didnt make many points, this would have been a really good look on me 2 days ago but now its kinda meaningless ngl
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I find this kind of hindsight analysis from both of these posts to be very suspect, especially from Peum who was soft defending des only to do a 180 and enter day 2 with this post saying they would've voted des. What exactly changed then from beginning of day 1 then?
 
Miyami~~~ said:
I'm confused why you think mafia would bus des when des is essentially an extra mafia member even as town and THE player mafia should be keeping around as long as possible to keep the heat off them
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des isnt likely to actually do anything beneficial as scum, is a goon so doesnt have extra roles that mafia wants to utilize, and might just be worth killing her for towncred since eventually shes js gonna get policied anyway
 
phoopes said:
oh great now I gotta defend myself from being paired with DBD :sob:

I think you’re totally misreading the situation here. des and DBD voted for each other. If they were both scum, that would be two of the three scum voting for each other on day one, which is the day with the least information AND in this situation was pretty dead by Smogon mafia standards. I think this is SO unlikely. If you vote for town on day one, you have such an easy defense of “oh it was day one, and in this case it was really inactive so I didn’t have a lot to work with.” This is actually a really good defense for this game specifically IMO because it’s just true. So 2/3rds of the scum team voting for each other just makes zero sense to me in this game.

Also consider that a tied vote means a no lynch in this game. If I’m scum DBD it’s very possible that I would not vote for des, but that I would vote for Neon or me (phoopes) or no-vote to create a four-way tie in votes and get a no lynch for the day. This is a hella risky strategy if someone comes in at the 11th hour to break the four way tie, BUT again, in a very inactive day one it’s more likely. Also the fact that no one mentioned this yet as far as I can remember so it probably wasn’t on a ton of people’s radars.

All this is to say that I don’t see a des/DBD pairing as very likely at all. I think I had more to say but I am currently getting interrupted so I’ll be back to the thread in a few minutes
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i dont super see why phoopes is saying they have to defend themselves but whatever. i mean the defense makes sense, scum voting their teammate off is kind of insane. and my usual line of 'well youre kind of locked in to your pregame des opinion' is maybe not true considering an afk (me) was right there to get voted off. ill think about this a little more but phoopes makes good poitns
 
over the night i was mulling it over and i think that des wagon cannot be completely clean, either or u and dbd are scum. scum put almost no resistance to the idea of a des policy
 
Peum said:
but yeah, I was going to vote des anyways, not because of policy but because she wasnt acting like her usual self. You can check how she usually gets desperate if she is accused of mafia as town, usually trying to explain to the best of her abilities, but on this one I feel like she just gave up? And didnt make many points, this would have been a really good look on me 2 days ago but now its kinda meaningless ngl
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peum proving des isnt unreadable (this is probably unfair to say but i mean.. you see it yes?)
 
i'm just going thru the thread responding to stuff i feel like which clogs the thread i know but I figure not much else is super happening?
Celever said:
is DBD the type of person to bus scumbuddy des D1? yes, definitely, and combined with his weak posting it all tracks to me

killing Evie is the counterargument to this because if you're hardbussing why would you start killing the town who hardbussed with you, it'll leave you exposed longterm, but it ultimately comes down to WIFOM
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I mean this is just totally crazy logic at this point in the game. Okay, absolutely the mafia could have set up a bus on des. the probability that happened is higher than average i would also agree with. But I find it challenging to have that be a focal point on day 2, especially on dbd who literally cast the deciding vote like what? celever is taking their day 1 conclusion, seeing the flip, and then adjusting their logic to confirm their original read. that's not very town
Celever said:
Peum gets a shout out scumread from trying to shut down mech discussion in a setup where I don't think that makes sense to do, and from doing the same thing as DBD which was essentially pre-flipping des but to a lesser extent than DBD
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this just didn't happen either. why do you care so much about speculating about the setup. there's like 3 roles in this game. I actually am surprised as to how much people are talking about it, there really isn't that much to talk about again there's like 3 roles!
 
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