Yes, this early.
By the way, if you have wandered into this thread thinking "eww, politics" I encourage you to change that sentiment. Whether likable or not, politics is extremely important to the well-being of our country. Please pay attention to it.
(The presidency and House are forthcoming).
The Senate
21 Republican seats and 12 Democratic seats are up for reelection in 2008. Not only do the democrats have far fewer seats to defend, there is still a heavy anti-republican sentiment in the air. It is all but certain that the democrats will go from a lieberman-majority to a more solid majority.
Key Races:
Colorado: Wayne Allard (R): leans democrat
Allard has announced that he would not seek reelection. Mark Udall is fairly popular and is the likely democratic candidate for this seat. With the 2008 deomcratic convention set to be in Denver, Colorado will be a key target state for democrats.
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D): toss up
It's been said that Louisiana is the only place that republican policies have created a permanent republican majority, and Landrieu is probably the most endangered democrat in 2008. Despite this, there has been difficulty finding a republican that can challenge and beat her. The most likely candidate, Jindal, is running for governor this year, and with Breaux dropping out of it, Jindall will probably be elected governor. If he is not, than it is very likely that he will run for Landrieu's seat and is likely to win it. Otherwise, Landrieu might be able to retain it.
Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R): likely democrat
Norm Coleman barely won a special election in 2002, in a year that was strongly republican. His voting record has made him fairly unpopular in a mostly democratic state.
New Hampshire: John Sununu (R): likely democrat
Democrats made massive gains in New Hampshire a few months ago, winning both of NH's house seats, taking control of both the state senate and house for the first time in 130 years, and reaching a settlement of getting $125000/year for 5 years from the republican party for their attempts at phone jamming. Despite this, Sununu remains very conservative in his voting record (such as recently voting against stem cell research), and has literally run away from reporters who have asked him about his stance on Iraq.
New Jersey: Frank Lautenburg (D): leans democrat
Lautenberg is old, and his approval ratings are fairly low. However, there are several factors that work to Lautenberg's advantage:
1. It's New Jersey.
2. It's an election year, with high anti-republican sentiments.
3. Chris van Hollen, the new chairman of the DCCC (which targets House races), has said that New Jersey along with Michigan
will be two states that will get a lot of attention in 2008. This is probably because there were no seat changes in either.
New Mexico: Pete Domenici (R): toss up
Domenici is old, has been rumored to be senile due to some parts of his behavior, has had difficulty fundraising, and has had a role in the Attorney General scandal (specifically, with David Iglesias), making this a possible pickup in 2008.
Oregon: Gordon Smith (R): toss up
Smith is a moderate republican in a blue state, and may very well become the Lincoln Chafee of 2008. Early polls showed potential challenger Peter Defazio beating Smith, but Defazio recently declined to run. Currently, Steve Novick has announced plans to run for the seat. Also, the Club For Growth (which is dedicated to getting more conservative people elected) has announced that they would challenge Smith, which is likely damage him.
South Dakota: Tim Johnson (D): leans democrat
Johnson made the news recently for suffering cranial bleeding, from which he is still recovering. Had he needed to vacate the seat, governor Mike Rounds (R) could appoint a replacement, and it would likely be a republican. Johnson won the 2002 election with only a few hundred votes, but his illness has nonetheless made republicans reluctant to give him a strong challenge so far, for fear of being seen as too insensitive.
Virginia: John Warner (R): toss up
Warner has claimed that he will seek reelection in 2008, but his age and his raising of only $500 during the first quarter of this year strongly suggest otherwise. On the other hand, Tom Davis, the republican currently representing VA-11, raised over $600000. On the deomcratic side, there is Mark Warner, retired governor of Virginia, who lost to John Warner by a 53-47 margin in 1996, despite being little-known.
Potential Races:
Idaho: Larry Craig (R)
Yes, Idaho, one of 3 states which give Bush fairly high approval ratings. However, the democratic party got some energy during the last election cycle, where Grant unsuccessfully challenged ID-01 with 50-45 margin and Brady unsuccessfully challenged the governor's position by a 52-44 margin. Again, those margins happened in IDAHO. Also, Craig may retire rather than run for reelection.
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R)
McConnell's approval rating is somewhat low, and being the senate minority leader makes him a powerful and high-profile target. Watch for a serious challenge here.
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Collins is one of the most popular senators in the country, but the anti-republican sentiment as well as how often she voted with republicans on key issues could put her at risk. Lieberman has endorsed her reelection, though democrats have at least in part been thankful because, well, it's an endorsement from Lieberman.
Nebraska: Hagel (R)
Two terms ago, Hagel pledged to run for only two terms. If he does retire, then this seat will become competitive, otherwise no.
North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole (R)
Dole's approval rating is fairly low. Until last year, she was the chair of the NRSC, thus presiding over the long-shot chance that the republicans would lose the senate.
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Yes, Texas. It seems unlikely but with Cornyn's approval rating being fairly low, it could turn into a race.
Estimated change: democrat +7, republican -7.
By the way, if you have wandered into this thread thinking "eww, politics" I encourage you to change that sentiment. Whether likable or not, politics is extremely important to the well-being of our country. Please pay attention to it.
(The presidency and House are forthcoming).
The Senate
21 Republican seats and 12 Democratic seats are up for reelection in 2008. Not only do the democrats have far fewer seats to defend, there is still a heavy anti-republican sentiment in the air. It is all but certain that the democrats will go from a lieberman-majority to a more solid majority.
Key Races:
Colorado: Wayne Allard (R): leans democrat
Allard has announced that he would not seek reelection. Mark Udall is fairly popular and is the likely democratic candidate for this seat. With the 2008 deomcratic convention set to be in Denver, Colorado will be a key target state for democrats.
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D): toss up
It's been said that Louisiana is the only place that republican policies have created a permanent republican majority, and Landrieu is probably the most endangered democrat in 2008. Despite this, there has been difficulty finding a republican that can challenge and beat her. The most likely candidate, Jindal, is running for governor this year, and with Breaux dropping out of it, Jindall will probably be elected governor. If he is not, than it is very likely that he will run for Landrieu's seat and is likely to win it. Otherwise, Landrieu might be able to retain it.
Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R): likely democrat
Norm Coleman barely won a special election in 2002, in a year that was strongly republican. His voting record has made him fairly unpopular in a mostly democratic state.
New Hampshire: John Sununu (R): likely democrat
Democrats made massive gains in New Hampshire a few months ago, winning both of NH's house seats, taking control of both the state senate and house for the first time in 130 years, and reaching a settlement of getting $125000/year for 5 years from the republican party for their attempts at phone jamming. Despite this, Sununu remains very conservative in his voting record (such as recently voting against stem cell research), and has literally run away from reporters who have asked him about his stance on Iraq.
New Jersey: Frank Lautenburg (D): leans democrat
Lautenberg is old, and his approval ratings are fairly low. However, there are several factors that work to Lautenberg's advantage:
1. It's New Jersey.
2. It's an election year, with high anti-republican sentiments.
3. Chris van Hollen, the new chairman of the DCCC (which targets House races), has said that New Jersey along with Michigan
will be two states that will get a lot of attention in 2008. This is probably because there were no seat changes in either.
New Mexico: Pete Domenici (R): toss up
Domenici is old, has been rumored to be senile due to some parts of his behavior, has had difficulty fundraising, and has had a role in the Attorney General scandal (specifically, with David Iglesias), making this a possible pickup in 2008.
Oregon: Gordon Smith (R): toss up
Smith is a moderate republican in a blue state, and may very well become the Lincoln Chafee of 2008. Early polls showed potential challenger Peter Defazio beating Smith, but Defazio recently declined to run. Currently, Steve Novick has announced plans to run for the seat. Also, the Club For Growth (which is dedicated to getting more conservative people elected) has announced that they would challenge Smith, which is likely damage him.
South Dakota: Tim Johnson (D): leans democrat
Johnson made the news recently for suffering cranial bleeding, from which he is still recovering. Had he needed to vacate the seat, governor Mike Rounds (R) could appoint a replacement, and it would likely be a republican. Johnson won the 2002 election with only a few hundred votes, but his illness has nonetheless made republicans reluctant to give him a strong challenge so far, for fear of being seen as too insensitive.
Virginia: John Warner (R): toss up
Warner has claimed that he will seek reelection in 2008, but his age and his raising of only $500 during the first quarter of this year strongly suggest otherwise. On the other hand, Tom Davis, the republican currently representing VA-11, raised over $600000. On the deomcratic side, there is Mark Warner, retired governor of Virginia, who lost to John Warner by a 53-47 margin in 1996, despite being little-known.
Potential Races:
Idaho: Larry Craig (R)
Yes, Idaho, one of 3 states which give Bush fairly high approval ratings. However, the democratic party got some energy during the last election cycle, where Grant unsuccessfully challenged ID-01 with 50-45 margin and Brady unsuccessfully challenged the governor's position by a 52-44 margin. Again, those margins happened in IDAHO. Also, Craig may retire rather than run for reelection.
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R)
McConnell's approval rating is somewhat low, and being the senate minority leader makes him a powerful and high-profile target. Watch for a serious challenge here.
Maine: Susan Collins (R)
Collins is one of the most popular senators in the country, but the anti-republican sentiment as well as how often she voted with republicans on key issues could put her at risk. Lieberman has endorsed her reelection, though democrats have at least in part been thankful because, well, it's an endorsement from Lieberman.
Nebraska: Hagel (R)
Two terms ago, Hagel pledged to run for only two terms. If he does retire, then this seat will become competitive, otherwise no.
North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole (R)
Dole's approval rating is fairly low. Until last year, she was the chair of the NRSC, thus presiding over the long-shot chance that the republicans would lose the senate.
Texas: John Cornyn (R)
Yes, Texas. It seems unlikely but with Cornyn's approval rating being fairly low, it could turn into a race.
Estimated change: democrat +7, republican -7.
