UK and the EU referendum

[Bughouse]

People have said that migrants are a drain on Britain's welfare state; I haven't seen the economic data to back that up

You know what definitely will be a strain? When all the old British retirees living in Spain and other southern European countries have to come home because they're no longer EU citizens. Man the NHS is gonna love covering a million more old people.

 

[Bughouse]

Moreover, if the UK starts enforcing borders with EU countries, ie Ireland, then this border control between Northern Ireland and Ireland would violate the Good Friday Agreement.

 

[Aladyyn]

You know what definitely will be a strain? When all the old British retirees living in Spain and other southern European countries have to come home because they're no longer EU citizens. Man the NHS is gonna love covering a million more old people.

Why would they "have to"?

 

[Rowan]

There's no age-based stats, by the way. It's all based on old polls.

The vote is anonymous.

No matter if the vote is anonymous, polls still give a general idea, and clearly the leave vote was swayed by people 65+, whilst most young people were very much in favour of remain. You can just see it by living in the UK, speak to any young person and most will want to remain.

17th-19th June - 'old poll'

 

[Aladyyn]

I don't get why so much is put into polls with 0,0005% of people.

 

[Bughouse]

Because you can't just live permanently in a country where you're not a citizen and not working?...

Why the hell would Spain give visas to UK retirees if they had the choice to keep them out? They cost the Spanish healthcare system money and don't integrate into Spanish culture whatsoever. Most of them don't speak a word of Spanish. They cause political trouble when they congregate in one area and start to nearly outnumber the local Spanish. Look up the city of Orihuela, for example.

 

[Rowan]

"It's terrible UK left the EU, at this time in the world we need unity not 'sovereignty' and independence> thank god that Scotland and Northern Ireland can get independence now, sovereignty for all"

It's easy to point out a certain irony in Scotland and NI wanting independence, but if they left and rejoined the EU, it wouldn't exactly contradict the want for unity as opposed to sovereignty.

 

[Rowan]

I don't get why so much is put into polls with 0,0005% of people.

multiple polls take place, there isn't just one, and they are all coming out saying a similar thing

apologies for double post

 

[Flamedood]

Because you can't just live permanently in a country where you're not a citizen and not working?...

Why the hell would Spain give visas to UK retirees if they had the choice to keep them out? They cost the Spanish healthcare system money and don't integrate into Spanish culture whatsoever. Most of them don't speak a word of Spanish. They cause political trouble when they congregate in one area and start to nearly outnumber the local Spanish. Look up the city of Orihuela, for example.

That seems like a pretty great reason for the Spanish not to want elderly expats there too me... so yeah, they should go back to Britain? Therefore good thing for Spain lol..

 

[Bughouse]

It WAS partially about age, also partially about education. Hardly perfect correlation on age, but there is one there. Education is a more obvious link.

 

[Aladyyn]

Source? Numbers?

 

[Flamedood]

It WAS partially about age, also partially about education. Hardly perfect correlation on age, but there is one there. Education is a more obvious link.

Not disputing this data although data is just that- data. So many potential influences as to why this is apparent. Young people may not want to fuck up their Erasmus studies, want their cheap holidays to Magalouf or have idealogical opinions towards immigration that may not actually equate to long term positive policy. Same to the educated vs uneducated- the educated are much more likely to leave Britain to nations such as Germany chasing personal economic opportunity, aforementioned Erasmus exchanges or any number of personal factors. The educated are probably the least effected by the low wages of unskilled work. This does not necessarily mean they know what's best for Britain. Graphs look fancy but can be manipulated to argue any point- unless all these people polled were asked their reasons for leaving, it doesn't paint a clear picture as to what peoples motivations actually were.

 

[Aladyyn]

Not to mention being educated doesn't mean you care or know anything about politics. Know plenty of people that just don't give a fuck 95% of the time.

 

[citro]

Also, there is something to be said about the value of cultural purism. That might sound like pure bigotry from the standpoint of a young country like Canada or the US-- but as a Japanese American living in Japan who treasures Japanese culture-- I can appreciate the sentiment. Britain is an old country, and more like Japan in that sense; with a strong heritage and tradition of sovereignty. Let's face it, Japan would be a very different country if 30% of the population became none-Japanese speaking Filipinos; the face and culture would necessarily change, and it would be a painful and uneasy transition. That's something I wouldn't want to see for MY ancestral country, but it's something that the native British have been dealing with to great frustration as of late. I can't simply write off their concerns as being closed-minded.

btw-- considering the US's history as part of the broader history in North America, not to mention its sheer size and and melting pot origin, I think totally differently about US immigration. But for countries like Britain or Japan, I'd say we're looking at much more grey moral issues when it comes to immigration vs native population and culture.

Culture doesn't die out unless people let it. The OVERALL culture of a country can change. Traditional Japanese culture wouldn't be eliminated by coexisting with other cultures. Traditional English, Scottish, Irish or Welsh culture will only die out if people stop celebrating it or if everyone who celebrates it eventually dies out - neither of which are affected by immigration. Some old London family's enjoyment of traditional English cuisine and dances or w/e else isn't affected by a foreign family moving in next door. Similarly, you say the "face" of a country would necessarily change. I'd like to know how you could consider a country's "face" (people's perception of the country?) to become worse through a mixing of cultures without claiming that either: a culture's value is increased by its lessening of proximity to other cultures - if so, I'd like to know why - or that some cultures are objectively worse/better than others, which I am sure that you don't believe.

Quoting a reply to this post:

Also a good point. I've travelled around the world a lot and I love experiencing different cultures and values. Globalization goes completely against that, turning everything into a generic brown sameness. If you value cultural diversity, you need to also value nationalism, to some extent.

I was with you on the "different cultures and values" part, but I'm thrown by your use of the term "generic brown sameness". Could you expand upon what you mean by that?


I know that this post, though I put a lot of effort into trying to explain myself clearly, will probably not get its meaning across because of our vastly different ideologies and backgrounds. I would like to just say where I'm coming from so we can try to find some common ground. I believe in being a citizen of the world. I'm from Europe, the UK, South-East England, but I do not think that I have more of a duty to my fellow South-Eastern English people, people in the UK, or people in Europe, compared to those who I do not share this location with. I think culture is amazing, and absolutely something to be celebrated. I can't understand why we couldn't celebrate our culture in the place we live, while others also celebrate their culture in the same place, if global affairs, such as war, poverty, and unrest, make it necessary.

 

[HNA]

French guy in Austria reporting.

One quick thing I read there about France, Le Pen is no way in hell going to be elected anytime soon. Our republican party (conservative right wing, ex UMP, the party that ruled between 1995 and 2012) will be elected in 2017, it is pretty much set in stone, the left wing party is dead with all the laws they made, especially the work law (a lot of them were "imposed" by the EU). Unless there's another terrorist attack or so and then Le pen can maybe find a way to be ellected. But then she will need to win the Parliament election. And I don't think that France is wanting to leave the EU. Btw if France leaves, France is dead, the EU is dead and some African country are exposed (those with the Franc CFA, a currency controlled by France, indexed on the euro right now)...

Also, Switzerland never gave a fuck about the EU anyway, I don't understand why people are speaking about it.

One on the thing what will be impacted by the Brexit will be Universities. With Brittain out of the EU, European student will pay the crazy prices to study in England. To give some comparison, the tuition fee for master in France cost roughly 500€ in a classic university whereas in England it is at least then times this price. The mobility of student itself may be impacted. For European PhD / researcher, it may means that England won't be attractive. The other way around, it may make moving around the UE harder for English student/phD/researcher. If the current border system remains, then it shouldn't change much but then I am an outsider so I am not sure if UK wants the stay with the current border system. Anyway, it gives a "you're not welcome here" impression to European students. I have some friends that went to study/work in the UK or were planning to do so, there are not that convinced anymore. Some are planning to come back one, if there're still in the UK.

I also have UK friends that are eligible to Irish nationality and they will apply to be able to easily travel in Europe for their PhD. It may be very marginal, I don't know if a lot of people will do it.

For companies wanting access to the European Market, it means that they'll need to relocate on the continent and leave the UK. Relocate where ? Probably Germany, France or Benelux countries so for EU it doesn't change anything and for those countries this is a positive point.

I am not sure that UK leaving will do anything to EU other than some countries asking for referendum, UK was not that deeply connected to the EU anyway. And I'm pretty sure that the EU will want to punish UK for leaving EU, and so, I expect the negotiation between UK and EU to be difficult.

The question I have is what are the laws that are imposed by the EU that UK people oppose ? Most of the law imposed to France that people oppose (like the current work law, that gives a LOT of strike and protest) are law influenced heavy by neo-liberalism and, if I am not wrong, UK is a strong defender of neo-liberalism in the EU. As someone deeply opposed to neo-liberalism, I think that EU is better with one less defendants of this toxic stuff as it means that laws that remove worker protection will have less support at the European level.

So in the end, my opinion of the subject from an exterior point of view is that, it shouldn't have a negative impact on the EU (or at least not on France) but it may be bad for UK depending of the negotiation (and if there is independence for Scottland/North Ireland, it will weaken the UK but the EU is not impacted as UK won't be part of the EU any more).

 

[Aladyyn]

The question I have is what are the laws that are imposed by the EU that UK people oppose ? Most of the law imposed to France that people oppose (like the current work law, that gives a LOT of strike and protest) are law influenced heavy by neo-liberalism and, if I am not wrong, UK is a strong defender of neo-liberalism in the EU. As someone deeply opposed to neo-liberalism, I think that EU is better with one less defendants of this toxic stuff as it means that laws that remove worker protection will have less support at the European level.

So in the end, my opinion of the subject from an exterior point of view is that, it shouldn't have a negative impact on the EU (or at least not on France) but it may be bad for UK depending of the negotiation (and if there is independence for Scottland/North Ireland, it will weaken the UK but the EU is not impacted as UK won't be part of the EU any more).

I can't speak for UK people but for my self:

Every. Single. One.

 

[marilli]

I don't get why so much is put into polls with 0,0005% of people.

you know how statistics works, right? you don't need to poll significant portion of entire population to get meaningful results, you gotta be kidding...

 

[Aladyyn]

you know how statistics works, right? you don't need to poll significant portion of entire population to get meaningful results, you gotta be kidding...

I just don't put much weight into it when it's a matter as volatile as this.

 

[baddummy]

Hi, here's a wall of studies saying the economy gets worse if we leave the EU:

https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...e-immediate-economic-impact-of-leaving-the-eu
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/EA022.pdf
https://www.global-counsel.co.uk/si...downloads/Global Counsel_Impact_of_Brexit.pdf
http://www.economist.com/news/brita...e-are-small-risk-bigger-losses-large-economic
https://www.oecd.org/eco/The-Economic-consequences-of-Brexit-27-april-2016.pdf

I searched for studies saying the economy gets better after Brexit, I couldn't find them. Just a personal allegory, I did some work experience at a bank not too long ago. Unsurprisingly, every banker who ever mentioned Brexit said they were strongly against the idea and that it would damage the economy. Also, everybody who I've talked to who I'd regard as knowledgable about economics has been strongly against the idea too.

Banks have said publicly that Brexit would damage the economy. Unsurprisingly, as we can see now, they were right.

Yes, the economic panic is justified. I voted remain because of this knowledge. Honestly I can't help but compare people who think the economy will get better, or even be the same after Brexit to anti-vaxxers who somehow think they know better than every doctor. My sympathies for anyone who loses their job because of this change.

 

[Knight of Cydonia]

Not to mention being educated doesn't mean you care or know anything about politics. Know plenty of people that just don't give a fuck 95% of the time.

so you resort to an even smaller sample size of people you know? you are either trolling or stupid or both, none of your posts have been relevant and all have been confrontational. polls in the uk are regulated and the sample sizes are large/ diverse enough to give good results.

edit at above: yes it is quite worrying, morgan stanley have already said they are moving 2000 jobs out of london. I think in the end immigration concerns etc were more important to people than economics which is unusual for britain.

 

[Pyritie]

Culture doesn't die out unless people let it. The OVERALL culture of a country can change. Traditional Japanese culture wouldn't be eliminated by coexisting with other cultures. Traditional English, Scottish, Irish or Welsh culture will only die out if people stop celebrating it or if everyone who celebrates it eventually dies out - neither of which are affected by immigration. Some old London family's enjoyment of traditional English cuisine and dances or w/e else isn't affected by a foreign family moving in next door. Similarly, you say the "face" of a country would necessarily change.

It's already happening. All you have to do is say "your culture offends me" and that's that. And the european cucks will just lie down and take it.

I was with you on the "different cultures and values" part, but I'm thrown by your use of the term "generic brown sameness". Could you expand upon what you mean by that?

I mean the same bland, inoffensive "culture" that pretty much every modern city (that has a large amount of different cultures mixed together) around the world has. Think of the culture of, I dunno, Atlanta, or Birmingham (the UK one, where I live). The only cities that have any semblance of a culture left are the ones with tons of historical stuff everywhere like London or Paris.

Banks have said publicly that Brexit would damage the economy. Unsurprisingly, as we can see now, they were right.

It hasn't even been 24 hours yet. No shit things are going to be rocky when something as big as this happens. It's too early to tell how much of an effect it'll have on things yet.

We're the first country to exit the EU. "What happens afterwards?" is a question we can only guess about.

 

[Aladyyn]

Pound taking a hit was an expected outcome, there is uncertainty. I don't get why some people call it a "disaster" or "collapse".

And yea, nobody has any idea what's going to happen, predictions are at best little more than guesswork.

 

[Rowan]

Banks have said publicly that Brexit would damage the economy. Unsurprisingly, as we can see now, they were right.

General public have been disillusioned with bankers since the economic crash, I wouldn't even be surprised if bankers wanting to remain helped the leave cause lol

The question I have is what are the laws that are imposed by the EU that UK people oppose ?

I honestly feel like people don't even know what the EU is imposing, and are just voting out of a 'don't tell me what to do' mentality. It's just been painted by the leave campaign as a restrictive power who bosses us about.

 

[Chou Toshio]

Culture doesn't die out unless people let it. The OVERALL culture of a country can change. Traditional Japanese culture wouldn't be eliminated by coexisting with other cultures. Traditional English, Scottish, Irish or Welsh culture will only die out if people stop celebrating it or if everyone who celebrates it eventually dies out - neither of which are affected by immigration. Some old London family's enjoyment of traditional English cuisine and dances or w/e else isn't affected by a foreign family moving in next door. Similarly, you say the "face" of a country would necessarily change. I'd like to know how you could consider a country's "face" (people's perception of the country?) to become worse through a mixing of cultures without claiming that either: a culture's value is increased by its lessening of proximity to other cultures - if so, I'd like to know why - or that some cultures are objectively worse/better than others, which I am sure that you don't believe.

I'm not talking about better or worse-- but I am talking specifically about the value of culture, and of specific unique cultures.

I grew up in Hawaii, which is a very "liberal state," but one that holds culture and tradition in the highest esteem (which flies in the face of most liberal American ideas). Hawaii is a cultural melting pot (highest multiracial population in the US), so I know what that looks like and celebrate it too-- but what I understand is that in order to respect culture you have to respect the sentiments of the people and the character of the specific culture. This is all about respecting the will of the people in that culture.

This is why I compared Britain to Japan and not China. I am half Chinese and half Japanese by the way-- but I would never make the same argument I did for Britain for China; just as I said I wouldn't make it for the US.

China is obviously a far far FAR older country than Britain or Japan, and arguably with a richer (deep rooted) culture than either of them as well; but China is also a melting pot; it is a culture that has been defined by the fact that its an ethnic/religious soup mix that makes the US looks bland. China has taken over and been taken over by countless groups, and the result is that all of them ended up becoming Chinese. Sure could call the "Han" Chinese as the "true" Chinese race, but it's so muddled and used to co-existing with other groups of Chinese that the idea of further immigration altering the culture is laughable. Ultimately, ethnic or cultural purity is not something Chinese give a rats ass about because their boarders were always too big to protect, and anyone who came in would just be absorbed anyway. That's Chinese culture, and the part of me that is Chinese, really doesn't care at all about immigration to China.

Japan is a completely different story. Japan was long, LONG isolated as a country, and even crushed the Mongol army when they tried to invade. Within the centuries of the samurai and eventual shogunate-ruled-feudalism, they created unique and rigid social structures; like the Koreans, they created their own truly unique brand of Confucianism and traditions honed because of that isolation. Japan is a country whose culture was defined by that isolation, and a "soul" that is still honed by traditions from the Samurai era. While they were the Asian country to most rapidly modernize, they were also the most quick and effective to re-take control of their sovereignty from the foreigners. The Japanese culture is defined by its rigid adherence to commonly understood practices and its ethnic purity-- and yes, when I say "face", I do mean both culturally AND ethnically. For a people whose culture is defined by that context, whose identity comes from it, and who VALUE it-- you cannot simply place black and white on the issue and say you have the moral high ground; when what you propose would essentially destroy the culture within a sovereign country.

People who only see things in black and white are not people who can say that they have a respect for culture--

And I would say an inability to respect culture, and be sensitive to history and context, is an inability to respect humanity.

 

[Outlaw]

Looks like democracy worked to me.