Heavy precipitation last week after the heat wave from the week prior. 6 Kyogre were present but there was a 100% winrate from the Groudon.
Heysup vs Vileman
vs
Both players brought teams with a pretty standard set of 6 but with some of their own personal touches. For example, heysup decided to lead with his CB Metagross. It happened to have a poor lead mu against Vileman's Kyogre but it is otherwise effective vs Lati leads and maybe even Mewtwo, depending on how the exact EV spread being use. Anyways, with the lead disdavantage, Heysup decides to play it safe by sending out his Latios. Vileman sends out his Forretress, either expecting a Blissey or for the Metagross to stay, but it unfortunately finds itself against Latios, thus forfeiting Vileman's lead advantage as Heysup gets to be the one to click the first attack. That attack starts off real strong with a Thunder crit + para. Even if this luck isn't dire to Blissey herself, it does force Vileman to click Softboiled which means that Heysup gets to bring in his CB Deo and click Superpower for free. Getting 60% on Forretress is pretty big, especially since Forretress is typically quite strong against MetaLax structures. It does mean, however, that Vileman gets his first Spike up on turn 5. Instead of taking the risk to stay and Superpower, again, to punish that Spike click, Heysup decides to send out Latios so that he can bait a double switch for yet another Deo-A click.
Here Vileman reveals his Gengar and tries reclaim momentum with his own double switch to Kyogre. This double switch makes sense because the most common Gengar checks for a MetaLax team are Ho-Oh, Kyogre, and (sometimes) Pursuit Metagross. Kyogre is pretty good into all of these except that Heysup also sent out his Kyogre and his Kyogre has Thunder. This means that Vileman's double switch backfires as his Kyogre eats 40% while trying to Calm Mind and forces Vileman to play reactively with his Blissey. CM Blissey Thunder chips CB Metagross with a respectable 30% but it does force Vileman's Kyogre to eat more chip. This is important because Vileman's phys def Kyogre is his safest answer to CB Deo clicks and it's already at a range where it can't fulfill that function anymore unless it decides to Rest.
Things play out pretty predictably for a few turns; Heysup checks the phys def Kyogre with his own Thunder Kyogre, Vileman checks that with his Latios, and Heysup's Snorlax comes in to eat the Latios Thunder. Here we start to see more moveset surprises as Heysup's Snorlax reveals the incredibly rare Rock Slide. My best guess is that Heysup is using Belly Drum as Rock Slide is a pretty good coverage option for that variant. This is just speculation, though, Heysup may just really want to paraflinch Lugia. It ends up being useful in this game as a way to actually damage Gengar. Speaking of this Gengar, Vileman reveals that he is using Mean Look Gengar. We never get the chance to see what the full set is but my guess is that it's also using Hypnosis and Perish Song? In any case, the trap attempt is foiled as Heysup ends up scouting it while trying to recover a bit of Leftovers with Protect. This allows him to simply respond with his Kyogre, who is quite unbothered by the Mean Look.
From this position, Heysup goes for Thunder Wave in hopes that it catches Latios but Blissey is the one that switches in this time. This isn't a bad deal since it means CB Metagross can switch in again without worrying about potential Thunder paralysis. It ends up getting an even better deal than that as the Blissey full paras. (this is far from a game changer, though) Vileman responds by sending out Forretress in hopes that Metagross goes for a boom or Meteor Mash but ends up just eating Rock Slide, instead. The CB Rock Slide threatens to KO Forretress so Kyogre comes out and is forced to click Rest. This is a really strong position for Heysup as Latios against a sleeping Kyogre allows for a free double switch to Deoxys. With Kyogre asleep and Forretress at 29%, Vileman has nothing that can switch into Rock Slide and survive. He decides to scout the Deo click with Kyogre as well as stay in to burn a sleep turn but is forced to give up Forretress so that Rayquaza can enter safely and force a Metagross a sac. Heysup now sends out his Latios to threaten a revenge kill.
This is where a bit of an interesting play occurs. Instead of simply sending out Blissey, Vileman tries to bring out his Gengar who drops to Dragon Claw. I imagine the idea was that Gengar would be a strong anti-double switch if Heysup tries to bring his Snorlax in at the same time as Vileman goes to Blissey. Seeing as Gengar has Mean Look, it may also have Perish Song which could then imply that it has Protect. Having Protect is important cause then it would mean that Gengar could scout a CB Deo click if Heysup decides to try to double switch that in on the Blissey instead of Snorlax. Lastly, Gengar just barely survives Modest Latios Ice Beam. Vileman already knows that Heysup is Modest Latios based on the Thunder damage vs Blissey so if Gengar gets in on Ice Beam, it would be faster (I'm sure Vileman is +speed) and able to threaten a Destiny Bond trade. Maybe even the plan was to try and fish a little with Hypnosis? Again, it's difficult to speculate the exact line Vileman was going for since the Gengar just dropped to Dragon Claw. It's worth noting that this Dragon Claw was a 56% damage roll assuming 252 HP Gengar which may have also been a factor in Vileman's decision. In any case, this loss of Gengar ends up having a lot of immediate and delayed consequences that essentially decide the game.
After Gengar drops, the game is essentially over. Vileman has no other option now than to bring in his Blissey. Heysup scouts out the double switch once with Thunder but then brings out his Snorlax. This is a big problem for Vileman since both Forretress and Gengar are gone and his phys def Kyogre is only at 35% and one more turn of sleep to burn. His only chance now is to go fishing for luck. Blissey clicks Thunder to get some chip + maybe para and gets that. With Snorlax paralyzed, there's a small chance Kyogre can actually wake up so Vileman tries that. Heysup's Snorlax gets two clicks without a full para so that seals Kyogre's fate. The hail mary isn't finished, though, as now it's Latios turn to try to full para fish while chipping Snorlax down with Thunders. That's exactly what happens, two consecutive paralysis procs allow Vileman's Latios to just straight up beat the Snorlax for free. This game is still very much in Heysup's favor, however. Heysup brings out his own Latios and that puts Vileman in a touch spot. He could try sending out Blissey and hoping for low rolls on Dragon Claw to dodge the 2HKO but, even if that happens, Blissey would be forced to Softboiled which just gives Deoxys a free entry. It's also a dangerous play to make if Heysup's remaining pokemon is Mewtwo, it's basically impossible to guess what the 6th based on what's been revealed so far. This basically reduces Vileman's choices to clicking Ice Beam with Latios and hoping for a crit or freeze. He gets neither but the chip at least allows for Rayquaza to force a kill with CB espeed. Heysup responds by revealing another novelty: Bulk Up Rayquaza! Unfortunately, it fails to win the 1v1 against Vileman's own Rayquaza. Some unfortunate damage rolls may have been involved but it's hard to know what the spreads were. In any case, it's not a big deal because the damage puts Rayquaza into Deo-A espeed range which forces the Rayquaza sac. After that, there's nothing left to do than sac Kyogre to Blissey so that Deoxys-Attack can come back in to Superpower.
This was a very well played game by both players and as clean as you can ever expect a Pokemon match to be. What really swung things into Heysup's favor was his ability to quickly abuse Deoxys-Attack clicks as early and as frequently as possible. Vileman's goal in this matchup is to abuse Forretress against Metagross and Snorlax in order to throw up as many Spikes as quickly as possible so that all of Heyup's breakers are put on a quick timer. The aggressive Deoxys plays, however, allowed Heysup to limit the number of Spikes that went up as well as just heavily taxing Vileman's defensive resources. There weren't any really big surprises or matchup handicaps, just strong play between two well-established players and team archetypes.
Ayu vs Fogbound Lake
vs
This was an unfortunate game for Ayu. As far as I'm aware, she hasn't played the metagame in tournament much recently and was likely caught off-guard by the BU Mewtwo lead from Fogbound. For the anecdote, after turn 1 revealed that Fog's Mewtwo was faster and would 2HKO, the best play would be to either switch to Kyogre and accept the boomtrade. Kyogre can safely handle all popular variants of BU Mewtwo and Ayu's team is not dependent on Rain to function.
Fogbound piloted his lead Mewtwo beautifully and it basically single-handedly won him the whole game. Fire Blast turn 2 was a great play to cover multiple options since it would have KO'd Ayu's Mewtwo if she stays, covers a steel-type switch (as was the case), and gets big chip on Groudon if she were using a Sun team. Bulk Up turn 4 is optimal because it's important to scout Snorlax's set for Protect while also being safe to Body Slam or Curse clicks. The Fire Blast read turn 5 makes perfect sense as a read because Ayu already communicated that her Snorlax was important to her with the instant Protect click as well as the fact that her 20% Metagross was unlikely to get sufficient value this game unless it managed to sponge a boom or boom itself.
Fogbound's turn 10 double switch was a great play because Ayu was forced to retreat her Snorlax and her mostly likely option would be to send out Latios. Getting Metagross in for a safe boom goes a long way in closing the door on the heavy value advantage that Fogbound had at that point. This is also important because we later see on turn 12 that Fogbound is using a bulky Salac Groudon. It's hard to speculate on what the exact set was, this was clearly another case of Fogbound's stylistic touch. Regardless, it adds further context to the Metagross double switch because Fogbound may not have Substitute on this unique Salac Groudon or was simply uncertain that it'd be able to break Ayu's unrevealed kaiju so Fogbound preferred to get the reliable boom value instead of trying to take risks on unknown information.
I also want to point out the raw HP Ghost click on this turn 12. Swords Dance would have instantly won the game and maybe Fogbound's Groudon doesn't have that move. However, I think the real reason for this decisions was that Fogbound wanted to respect the possibility of Calm Mind Latios. That set has fallen heavily out of favor in recent years but it could have completely turned the game around if Fog had clicked Swords Dance as Latios Calm Minds. +1 Latios would OHKO Groudon, cleanly beat his back Latios (and even setup more Calm Minds if desired), and Wobbuffet would be forced to 50/50 in the best case scenario. Fogbound would therefore have to rely on Victreebel's Sleep Powder accuracy and hope for at least 2 turns of sleep. By clicking raw HP Ghost, Fogbound avoids this nightmare scenario since it would chip Latios into Sludge Bomb kill range regardless of anything Ayu may choose to do. Doing so does mean that Ayu gets to force a trade with her Snorlax but this is absolutely acceptable considering the pokemon advantage Fog already had as well as the fact that his Wobbuffet would ensure the Snorlax couldn't possibly runaway with a lucky reverse sweep.
I find it really impressive how Fogbound took up almost his entire timer to think carefully through the endgame. Mewtwo may have blown through half of Ayu's team but Fog didn't allow himself to be overconfident and made all the perfect plays to ensure his victory.
Raph369 vs Ajencis
vs
This week raph decided to revive a very old-school style: dual Lati offense! Ajencis, on the other hand, brings something more modern and novel featuring SkarmBliss with Wobbuffet. This is a weird matchup at first glance. CM Blissey is a bit of a wet blanket for both of Raph's Lati twins which means that Snorlax will be important as a reactive check to it. This is further complicated, though, by the presence of Wobbuffet which should result in a reliable Snorlax trap. On the other hand, Forretress is happy to see Skarmory as it can deny Spikes while setting up its own. These Spikes will be very important for putting pressure on the CM Blissey in a way that the Lati twins could potentially exploit. Lastly, bandar's Rayquaza has a natural advantage against the Deoxys-Attack from Ajencis, which will be important if the match is brought to a close endgame scenario.
Raph starts off strong with a double switch from Latias to Forretress as Ajencis retreats their Kyogre for Blissey. This means a quick turn 2 Spike goes up as Kyogre comes back in. Having a Spike up that early is almost always fantastic against a team without a Rapid Spin user and it'll be important here because of that CM Blissey. There's a short downtime afterwards where neither player makes much progress. Kyogre Hydro Pumps into the Latios but Raph plays conservatively by clicking Recover as Blissey comes in. Raph checks for a double switch by clicking Thunder but Ajencis also Thunders to para fish vs Latios or chip vs Forretress. The para happens so Raph has to Refresh while Blissey gets a CM. With Blissey at +1, the best play is to keep things safe and just send out Snorlax to check it. Blissey's Thunder gets a relevant para vs that Snorlax and then retreats to Skarmory to sponge the Body Slam. Here is a chance for Ajencis to get their own Spike up as Forretress comes in. Since it's still early in the game and Raph doesn't know if their is a Gengar, he chooses to play it safe and just get a second layer instead of trying to spin away the Spike Ajencis just set. This allows Kyogre back in for another click but things play out the same as last time. This time, however, Raph doesn't try to cover a double switch and instead immediately brings out Snorlax. It's at this point that Wobbuffet is revealed and a major turning point in the match occurs.
When the Wobbuffet comes in on Snorlax's Body Slam, it eats a paralysis and burns its Lum Berry as a result. Ajencis worries about a potential second Body Slam para and the hax that can follow so they decide to Safeguard. This is, frankly, a misplay. Snorlax is paralyzed and has revealed basically nothing about it's moveset. It's entirely possible that it has enough non-damaging PP to stall out the Wobbuffet especially with full para procs factored in. Switching into raw Body Slam was ideal, for this reason, and the best choice would have been to click Encore followed by Safeguard if the Wobbuffet isn't paralyzed again. A second Body Slam paralysis would be annoying but, since Snorlax is also paralyzed, it wouldn't be a massive problem as Wobbuffet is still faster regardless. Full para procs could be annoying but an active Destiny Bond doesn't disappear until that Pokemon makes a second move. By clicking Destiny Bond, when in 2HKO range, followed by a Counter, Wobbuffet can have dbond active for two Snorlax attacks without having to worry about if there is a full para proc or not on the second. Para nonsense could still happen, of course. The Snorlax could full para enough times to escape Encore before Wobbuffet can trigger dbond, which could create some awkward 50/50s. Alternatively, Wobbuffet could just full para enough times in a row (and/or eat a bad crit) that it misses its opportunity to force the Destiny Bond trade. These risks are still preferable to clicking Safeguard first as it requires Raph's Snorlax to trigger a second Body Slam para through his own paralysis and then hit another jackpot afterwards. Fortunately, the Snorlax simply full paras on the Safeguard turn. Unfortunately, Ajencis didn't know that clicking Encore would force the Snorlax to use Body Slam as that was the last successful attack. Instead, Ajencis tries to Destiny Bond to scout the Snorlax click which allows Raph to Curse instead. The two players spend the next 45 turns PP stalling and Raph ends up coming out the winner by attacking the Wobbuffet on a turn that it didn't Destiny Bond. (it was basically a 50/50) This means Ajencis has lost their Wobbuffet for little value and will have to deal with a +6 Snorlax. (although, the Snorlax does have basically zero PP remaining besides Body Slam)
Skarmory comes back in to clean up the mess with Whirlwind. Raph's Kyogre is revealed and this gives him a free Water Spout click. With Ajencis's Latios at 51%, Raph decides to take a small risk by sending out his own Latios instead of Snorlax. This play allows for him to punish a Recover with the threat of a Latios trade that favors Raph given the gamestate. The other possibility is that he switches into Thunder but that will do minimal damage and a 51% Latios will not survive Ice Beam while Raph's absolutely will. Unfortunately for him, Ajencis does decide to Thunder and gets lucky with a paralysis. Raph decides to raw Ice Beam as Ajencis attempts a Recover in anticipation of Refresh but ends up just losing more health as a result. From this position, Ajencis can either continue to click Recover in hopes that Bandar's Latios will full para (or Refresh) sometime within the next 4 turns or they can cut their loses and play it safe by sending out Blissey instead of risking losing Latios. Ajencis chooses the later but unfortunately that is the turn where Latios ends up procing a full paralysis. This allows Raph to Refresh and Recover in front of the unboosted Blissey and then send out Snorlax to force her back out after Calm Mind.
Things are looking very grim as Ajencis is forced to send out Skarmory for Body Slam. This does give them a second Spike layer but at the cost of allowing Raph's Kyogre to come back into play. With Ajencis Latios at 36% and two layers of Spikes on their side of the field, they are forced to send out their own Kyogre to sponge the Water Spout. Although it narrowly avoids the 2HKO, it does mean that Latios comes back in and repeats the game loop that's been going so poorly for Ajencis so far. Even with the Thunder Wave read and a full paralysis, Latios gets to come out basically unscathed as it simply Refreshes against unboosted Blissey and then Snorlax returns to check the +1 Ice Beam. Since 2 layers are already in play, Raph decides to just stay in and spam Body Slam with his Snorlax to force Ajencis to Whirlwind. There aren't any good pulls for them at this stage but they do get mildly lucky by pulling out the least threatening pokemon: CB Rayquaza. This still puts Ajencis in a position where they have to guess between Overheat or HP Fly but instead Raph reveals a strong midground option with CB Rock Slide. Latios ends up being the sacrifice for this turn and that makes Water Spout Kyogre even more dangerous than it already was. Ajencis sends out Kyogre for the revenge kill but Latios comes in to absorb the Thunder Wave. There's not full para this time as Refresh occurs before Blissey can click anything, which allows Forretress to switch in safely and clear out all those Spikes that Ajencis worked so hard to setup. Ajencis chose to send out Skarmory, perhaps anticipating Explosion? Even though +1 Thunder could 2HKO, it was unlikely that Raph would make such a play while his Snorlax was still healthy enough to check Blissey. Admittedly, Ajencis in such a terrible position that they kinda have to just hope that Raph makes some silly choke. Regardless, with Spikes gone and Skarmory in play, there is no risk to Kyogre simply switching in and taking another kill with Water Spout. Ajencis chooses to give up Kyogre so that Blissey can come in safely but even Blissey drops as Bandar decides to power through the Thunder with two Water Spout clicks to KO. CB Deoxys finally reveals itself to threaten the revenge kill and Raph allows it instead of risking the game trying to preserve the 6-0. The game has been long over as Raph safely closes out the endgame by trading with Latios and Forretress.
This game was a bit cruel, Ajencis made some reasonable errors with their Wobbuffet and ended up being punished in the worst way possible for it. That was their strongest piece in the matchup so the game simply unraveled when Wobbuffet failed to bring down Snorlax. There may have been a way to win with safer Latios clicks and some aggressive double switches involving Deoxys-Attack but it was a very uphill battle and would require everything to perfectly for multiple turns in a row. It just wasn't realistic given the circumstances. The silver lining is that this game was a good learning experience for some more obscure Wobbuffet mechanics and optimal lines of play.
MMII vs temp
vs
My team for this week. I wanted to bring CM Jirachi this week as it's powerful into SkarmBliss archetypes. This particular Jirachi team also features some other pokemon and movesets that I expected to do well given temp's habits in this tournament so far. This more or less turned out to be the case as temp only really had Groudon as a reactive check to Jirachi. My Forretress also ends up being a big deal as it can prevent/limit Skarmory Spikes while setting up its own to chip away at Groudon health and make responding to Jirachi even more difficult. Swift Swim Ludicolo is a bit of novelty but it becomes a powerful player in this matchup since I'll have no worries about maintaining Spikes and Groudon's Sun is really the only thing that can interupt it once Ludicolo safely sets up a Substitute. On the other hand, I'm reliant on Snorlax to keep Latios Thunder in check and I can't much afford to boom trade with my Forretress while a healthy Skarmory is in the back. CB Deoxys-Attack is also more or less free to click Superpower and I'm forced to weather that damage until it eventually succumbs to Spikes. This match will more or less come down to how quickly I can setup Spikes versus temp's ability pressure with Latios Thunders to eventually break Snorlax and/or force plays that allow Deoxys to attack safely.
The matchup starts off with a favorable lead for me which allows me to make a double switch to bring Kyogre in and setup my own weather. My Kyogre meets temp's Blissey, though, which means I'm in a position where I need to switch. I decide to send out Snorlax since it covers Blissey Toxic while also working as a double switch against Lati@s if temp decides to respect the possibility of SubCM Kyogre. Since temp stays, I go for a Curse with my Snorlax. If temp brings out Groudon, I can abuse my Counter to potentially win the weather war early in the game. If Forretress is revealed, instead, then I can keep throwing up Curse boosts to either force a boom or have one of temp's teammates eat a boosted Body Slam (ideally Groudon). Skarmory ends up being the counter for Curse Snorlax and this means that I have to bring in Forretress to Rapid Spin away the incoming Spike. Temp stays in with Skarmory on the Rapid Spin so that he can click Whirlwind and get more information on my team. My Ludicolo gets pulled out by this and we both decide to play it safe as I click Surf and temp sends out Blissey. I decide to keep playing safe by sending out Forretress in hopes that temp decides to Toxic but he reads my retreat and double switches in his own Groudon to reclaim sun. This means that Swords Dance is pretty free but I decide to respond to that with my own Kyogre because it resets weather, covers any fire move from Groudon, and also forces temp to respect the uncertainty of speed creep and retreat his boosted Groudon if he clicks Swords Dance. This one option ends up being the case and Blissey comes back in on Surf. This time we both switch but I choose to send out Latios while temp brings Groudon back out. Since my Latios is Refresh, I cover Blissey Toxic and this specific double switch. My goal is to force Blissey back in and engage in a PP stall war that will allow me to bring a different pokemon on a predictable attack based on what's revealed by Blissey. Since my Ice Beam immediately crits, Softboiled is a likely click and so I try to take advantage of that by bringing in my Snorlax. Since Sun is in play, I don't want to risk sending out Forretress against a potential Flamethrower Blissey. Snorlax also has the advantage of being slower than Blissey so I can choose to immediately double switch to Kyogre and reclaim rain as temp is pressured to send out either Groudon or Skarmory. Skarmory ends up being the choice and, since I expect Blissey to come back in, I immediately double switch to Forretress. With rain up against Blissey, I finally get to setup my first Spike of the game.
Groudon is the one that temp chooses to punish my Spike click with and this he decides to raw Earthquake as I bring Kyogre out for rain once more. I learn immediately from this damage that Groudon is very likely to be a special defense variant and so I will need to be careful with my Latios until I can chip the Groudon into Ice Beam KO range. I decide to stay in with Kyogre and Surf so that I can recover a bit of health with Leftovers as Blissey comes back in. This allows me to go for the same Latios play as last time while temp adapts by not attempting any double switches. This is fine for me as I can now start to PP stall to try and bait a turn for Forretress to come into play again. I end up learning that Blissey has Seismic Toss which means that my Forretress has little to fear from Blissey even with sun in play. After stalling a bit, I send out Forretress on a Blissey click and get to setup my second Spike. With two Spikes already in play, temp decides to adjust his gameplan and brings out Latios to begin applying pressure on my Snorlax.
Since I'm in an advantaged position and I don't yet have my third Spike, I decide my best course of action is to play it safe and simply send out Snorlax. I play as conservatively as possible by clicking Body Slam as Skarmory comes in and then bring out Forretress to Rapin Spin away the Skarmory Spike. This is where a key pressure loop begins. Although I'm currently favored, playing purely reactively vs Skarmory and Latios will prevent me from making further progress while exposing myself to an eventual Thunder parahax or crit that allows Latios to break through my Snorlax. As such, after the Skarmory comes in a second time, I decide to try and punish the Spike click with Ludicolo pressure instead of reactively spinning it away. Temp makes a strong double switch, however, and I find myself forced to retreat my Ludicolo while my Snorlax has to stomach yet another Thunder. I've been fortunate until this point to not be paralyzed by any of the Thunders so far but Snorlax is now in 2HKO range so I am forced to click Rest. This allows Groudon to switch in and get another free Swords Dance. This time, when I bring Kyogre in, it's revealed through Leftovers that my Kyogre is actually slower than temp's Groudon. Since my Kyogre is in Earthquake KO range and temp's Groudon is still too healthy for Latios Ice Beam to KO it, my choice is to send out Ludicolo to tank the Earthquake and threaten a Surf KO. I go for a safe midground with Substitute as temp retreats for Blissey and now my Ludicolo pressure can finally begin.
With two Spikes in play and safely behind a Substitute, I know that I can start Leech Seed stalling to heal off the damage dealt by Groudon and force chip onto key members of temp's team. Temp immediately recognizes the situation and instead of allowing my to sap from Blissey's giant health pool, he brings out Groudon to break my Swift Swim and weaken my Surf. This is fine for me, however, as I still heal back a good chunk of HP and force Groudon to eat very important chip. Since I'm still in a favorable position and I expect temp won't risk exposing his Groudon to further harm, I click Leech Seed again while temp retreats to Skarmory. His plan here is use Whirlwind to force out my Ludicolo before it heals more but I've already recovered to 56% and am very eager to get damage on his Skarmory so that my Forretress can more freely boom. There also isn't any Pokemon on my team that a Leech Seed Skarmory is happy about pulling out so it's absolutely free for me to just click Ice Beam. Unfortunately, temp's Skarmory full paras instead of phazing out my Ludicolo. This allows me to heal even further and forces Skarmory to switch out while I get more damage on another member of temp's team. His response this time is Latios which I'm definitely happy about as it's the most problematic part of his offense at this point. Even with Sun in play, my Ludicolo can win the 1v1 and either force Latios to retreat while it's still damaged or stay and sacrifice itself to break my Leech Seed stalling so that another teammate can force my Ludicolo out. Unfortunately for me, I just miss my Leech Seed but get my third and final Spike as a consolation.
Now with all three Spikes in play, my Forretress boom is a relevant threat. Exploding my Forretress may mean giving up my Rapid Spin against temp's Skarmory but it's already heavily chipped and can't safely setup Spikes on any member of my team besides Snorlax. If I can manage to boom away temp's Latios, then my Snorlax won't need to see play so it would be very feasible for me to deny Skarmory Spikes for the rest of the game. Conscious of this, temp brings out Skarmory in anticipation of a potential boom while also having a chance to catch my sleeping Snorlax if I decide to play it safe. Instead, I bring out my own Jirachi since it's a pretty reliable answer to Latios under sun and can also threaten Skarmory with a potential KO. Since Skarmory does come into play, I decide to play it safe and click Thunder. Even if Groudon switches in, that means it will suffer 25% Spikes damage even if my Jirachi has to retreat without doing damage itself. At this point, my Latios can safely check it so my main goal is to try and deny any ambitious Skarmory Spikes so that temp's offense is limited. Unfortunately, I miss my Thunder and, instead of removing the problematic Skarmory, I have to deal with the layer of Spike I was hoping to deny. With that Spike in play, I'm more worried about temp's Groudon coming in for free on Thunder and decide to Ice Punch instead. Temp reads this and Whirlwinds me out to drag out my Kyogre. Since Spikes are in play, I suspect Blissey won't try switching into Kyogre so I reveal Thunder Wave in hopes that it catches Latios. That ends up being the case and now my Kyogre is facing off against a paralyzed Latios. It's at this point of the game that I make a crucial misplay.
Turn 47 I decide to Ice Beam in hopes that the Latios full paras on that turn. Although 25% is cute odds, I can't afford to be risking the 75% with a Spike on my side and my Snorlax still asleep for one more turn. This was especially stupid of me since my Ice Beam is a roll to 2HKO unboosted which further lowers my odds of cheesing the Latios. Instead, what I should have done was switch to Snorlax on the forced Refresh. If I'm lucky, then temp will probably spend my last turn of sleep to stay in and Refresh his Latios. If the Latios manages to Refresh as my Snorlax comes in, that still means that I avoid a Thunder 3HKO thanks to that extra turn of Leftovers and so temp can either stay to crit fish or bring in Deoxys-Attack on my forced sleep turn. Odds are he would go for the later as it would put me in the awkward position of having to stomach CB Superpower + Spikes damage on one of my Pokemon. What instead happens is that, on turn 47, I Ice Beam as the Latios removes paralysis and then switch to my Snorlax as the Latios lands a crit Thunder. I now have to choose a sacrifice and then find a way to deal with the 54% Latios.
I choose to give up Snorlax as it's very unlikely that I can bring it back with it already asleep and a Spike in play. Since I know that temp's Latios is timid based on damage against my Snorlax, I don't really have any good choice but to threaten the speed tie with my own Latios. Temp chooses to accept that speed tie and comes out the victor. At this point it's not really feasible for me to win the game anymore but there is a small sliver of chance since my Ludicolo and Jirachi are still threats. I try to go for the Ice Beam 2HKO with Ludicolo, if I'm lucky I may be able to crit or freeze. Instead, my Ludicolo gets paralyzed. This doesn't change a whole lot but it does mean that my odds of winning go from slim to zero as I'm forced to give up my Ludicolo as well. My only choice now is to play the rest of the game out and hope for some big choke. Temp is too good of a player for that and carefully considers all of his options to close out the game safely and convincingly.
Temp played really well and efficiently identified his best path for victory in an awkward matchup. I never got the chance to even see his final pokemon but, based on how the game was played, I suspect it was a CM Ho-Oh or some sort of fat Mewtwo. If that's the case, then temp's Latios was absolutely crucial and the way he piloted it keep the pressure on me was immaculate. I had a lot of fun with this game and look forward to meeting temp again in playoffs. It probably won't happen in this tournament but I hope sometime to play you in a bo3 :)
