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Project Victim of the Week

Week 92: Thanks for all the votes, and congrats to everyone who made it into the archive:
Checks: Scarf Kyurem-B (matthewc20090) | Bronzong (p2) | Mamoswine (Random Passerby)
Counters: Unaware Clefable (Recreant ) | Togekiss (TURBODERP) | Mega Audino (HeraChris)

Week 93: Calm Mind Manaphy
manaphy.gif

Manaphy @ Leftovers
Ability: Hydration
EVs: 252 HP / 240 Def / 16 Spe
Bold Nature
- Calm Mind
- Scald
- Rain Dance
- Rest​
 
Gastrodon is a counter

gastrodon.gif

Gastrodon @ Leftovers
Ability: Storm Drain
EVs: 252 HP / 112 Def / 144 SpD
Sassy Nature
- Curse
- Scald
- Earthquake
- Recover

Manaphy Scald vs. Storm Drain Gastrodon: 0-0 (0 - 0%) -- aim for the horn next time

+6 0 Atk Gastrodon Earthquake vs. 240 HP / 252+ Def Manaphy: 264-312 (65.8 - 77.8%)

Immune to Water moves, uses Manaphy as complete setup fodder for Curses.
 
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amoonguss.gif

Amoonguss @ Black Sludge
Ability: Regenerator
EVs: 252 HP / 136 Def / 120 SpD
Calm Nature
- Spore
- Giga Drain
- Clear Smog
- Hidden Power [Fire] / Foul Play

Role: Counter

Amoonguss takes little from Scald even while boosted, even at +6 in the rain, it does 2/3 max. In return, Giga Drain does some fair damage back (healing off any damage taken in the process, especially nice if Scald manages to burn you) and Clear Smog gets rid of any boosts Manaphy might have, but it becomes a bit of a stalemate unless you Spore it while it's not raining.

0 SpA Manaphy Scald vs. 252 HP / 120+ SpD Amoonguss: 41-48 (9.4 - 11.1%) -- possibly the worst move ever
+6 0 SpA Manaphy Scald vs. 252 HP / 120+ SpD Amoonguss in Rain: 245-288 (56.7 - 66.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
0 SpA Amoonguss Giga Drain vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Manaphy: 140-168 (34.6 - 41.5%) -- 69.2% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
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subcm keldeo as a counter

keldeo is free to switch into manaphy as much as it wants and sets up against it, the given ev spread hits a leftovers number and ensures manaphy will never be able to break keldeo's as long as they have the same boosts. (+1 mana will break +0 keldeos sub under rain but +1 will never break +1 keldeos sub etc). burns are really annoying though.

keldeo.gif

Keldeo @ Leftovers
Ability: Justified
EVs: 52 HP / 200 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Substitute
- Calm Mind
- Scald
- Secret Sword

0 SpA Manaphy Scald vs. 52 HP / 4 SpD Keldeo in Rain: 70-83 (20.8 - 24.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 SpA Keldeo Secret Sword vs. 240 HP / 252+ Def Manaphy: 100-118 (24.9 - 29.4%) -- possible 5HKO after Leftovers recovery
+1 252 SpA Keldeo Secret Sword vs. 240 HP / 252+ Def Manaphy: 150-177 (37.4 - 44.1%) -- 100% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
+2 252 SpA Keldeo Secret Sword vs. 240 HP / 252+ Def Manaphy: 199-235 (49.6 - 58.6%) -- 70.3% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
manaphy.gif


Counter (or Hard Check, depending on how you see the calcs below): Fast Heart Swap Manaphy

I think this still classifies as a counter, or at the very least, an incredibly hard check. If a mod or someone thinks this isn't a counter but rather a check, based off the calcs (mostly at the very bottom) please let me know.

Manaphy @ Leftovers
Ability: Hydration
EVs: 176 HP / 80 SpA / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
- Scald
- Energy Ball
- Rain Dance/Rest
- Heart Swap

First note. This is not my set, it's from Flexxen and it was originally posted in the Creative and Underrated Sets V2 thread. It's a great set, and gives a lot of utility because this set also beats TG Manaphy handily and can countersweep with the speed investment and SpA EVs/Bulk. The SpA EVs are to 2HKO Magma Storm Heatran 100% of the time.

Onto calcs.

Defensive Calcs
+6 0 SpA Manaphy Scald vs. 176 HP / 0 SpD Manaphy: 171-202 (44.4 - 52.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery

So even at +6, CM Manaphy can't 2HKO outside of rain, and you outspeed easily.

But let's talk worst-case scenarios. Let's say somehow the opposing Manaphy has boosted to +6, is at full, in the Rain with 3 or so turns still left, and you switch in and eat a +6 Rain-boosted Scald.

+6 0 SpA Manaphy Scald vs. 176 HP / 0 SpD Manaphy in Rain: 258-303 (67 - 78.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery

After you go for the Heart Swap, you can eat up anything Manaphy throws at you with ease.

0 SpA Manaphy Scald vs. +6 176 HP / 0 SpD Manaphy in Rain: 16-20 (4.1 - 5.1%) -- possibly the worst move ever

Even if you're at +1 only after the Heart Swap, you still laugh off Scalds. Heck, even at +0, in the Rain, you laugh off Scalds, and burns are healed with Hydration!

0 SpA Manaphy Scald vs. +1 176 HP / 0 SpD Manaphy in Rain: 43-51 (11.1 - 13.2%) -- possibly the worst move ever

0 SpA Manaphy Scald vs. 176 HP / 0 SpD Manaphy in Rain: 65-77 (16.8 - 20%) -- possible 7HKO after Leftovers recovery

+1 0 SpA Manaphy Scald vs. 176 HP / 0 SpD Manaphy in Rain: 97-114 (25.1 - 29.6%) -- guaranteed 5HKO after Leftovers recovery

Offensive Calcs
But what can you do back?

80 SpA Manaphy Energy Ball vs. 240 HP / 0 SpD Manaphy: 142-168 (35.4 - 41.8%) -- 81.2% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery

At +0, you're not gonna have a good time, but that's to be expected.

How about if you're at +1?

+1 80 SpA Manaphy Energy Ball vs. 240 HP / 0 SpD Manaphy: 212-250 (52.8 - 62.3%) -- 99.6% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery

Now we're talking. A clean 2HKO, and since you're guaranteed to outspeed and 2HKO, you win the matchup.

But what if the other Manaphy keeps Calm Minding after you go for the Heart Swap? Or tries to go for mindgames with alternating between Calm Mind and Scald so as to get chip damage and keep the boosts even/in their favor. So you're both at +1, possibly you get to +2 while they're at +1, etc. Let's calc.

Mindgame calcs

+2 80 SpA Manaphy Energy Ball vs. +1 240 HP / 0 SpD Manaphy: 188-222 (46.8 - 55.3%) -- 14.8% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
+3 80 SpA Manaphy Energy Ball vs. +2 240 HP / 0 SpD Manaphy: 176-208 (43.8 - 51.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery

As you can see, it's not clear cut, and you'll have some issues if you get mindgamed/outplayed. But this assumes that the opponent knows your Manaphy is Heart Swap and plays accordingly....which is very unlikely. The best time to use this set is when the opposing Manaphy will *continue* to set up (i.e. sack what you have and get chip damage on Manaphy) and then you get a clean switch in and Heart Swap and possibly countersweep. But even if you switch in at +1 or +2, you win almost all scenarios simply because there's no good reason to know that this Manaphy set is...this Manaphy set. Plus, you can reverse-mindgame with Scalds/Energy Balls of your own instead of just Heart Swapping off the bat. Also, this set makes Suicune very very sad, as well as beating Curse Gastrodon in a 1v1 even if Gastro is at +5.
 
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serperior.gif

Serperior @ Leftovers
Ability: Contrary
EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
- Leaf Storm
- Synthesis
- Hidden Power Fire
- Taunt

Serp is a counter to CM variants of Manaphy. Aside from being burned by Scald, Serp has nothing to fear from Manaphy and can switch in really comfortably otherwise. From there, it's able to abuse Manaphy's presence by firing a Leaf Storm and increasing its special attack in the process. The ability to attack Manaphy while simultaneously boosting and posing an immediate offensive danger separates Serp from other grass type answers like Celebi and Amoonguss. Although Serperior isn't crippled as much by Scald burns compared to the likes of Ferro, Synthesis is here to offset the issue and keep the snake healthy enough to consistently respond to Manaphy throughout a match. Although they're obvious, here are some calcs:

+0 Leaf Storm vs +0 Manaphy: 73.2 - 86.6%
+0 Leaf Storm vs +1 Manaphy: 49 - 57.9%
+2 Leaf Storm vs +1 Manaphy: 97 - 114.8%

+0 Scald vs Serperior: 15.4 - 18.2%
+1 Scald vs Serperior: 23 - 27.1%
 
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Toxicroak @ Life Orb
Ability: Dry Skin
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 Def / 252 Spe
Jolly Nature
- Gunk Shot
- Drain Punch
- Sucker Punch
- Swords Dance

Toxicroak serves as a great Counter to Calm Mind Manaphy as since Manaphy's only attacking move on that set is Scald, Toxicroak completely counters it thanks to Dry Skin, and can set up Swords Dances easily on Manaphy, while also healing up it's HP in the Rain. The Manaphy set has to be known before Croak can switch in, as Tail Glow + 3 Attacks Manaphy can demolish Croak with Psychic. But overall, Toxicroak is a great counter to CM Manaphy.

Manaphy Scald vs. Dry Skin Toxicroak: 0-0 (0 - 0%) -- aim for the horn next time

+2 252 Atk Life Orb Toxicroak Gunk Shot vs. 240 HP / 252+ Def Manaphy: 320-376 (79.8 - 93.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
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celebi.gif

Celebi @ Leftovers
Ability: Natural Cure
EVs: 252 HP / 148 Def / 108 Spe
Bold Nature
- Nasty Plot
- Giga Drain
- Recover
- Earth Power

Celebi can take a Scald or two easily, heal off the damage, boost up with Nasty Plot, and 2HKO Manaphy with Giga Drain. On top of that, Natural Cure allows Celebi to avoid being worn out by Scald burns, which means Manaphy can't effectively spam Scald and switch out.

+2 0 SpA Celebi Giga Drain vs. +1 240 HP / 0 SpD Manaphy: 218-258 (54.3 - 64.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
+1 0 SpA Manaphy Scald vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Celebi: 64-76 (15.8 - 18.8%) -- possible 8HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
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Name: Alakazam
Status: Check

alakazam-mega.gif

Alakazam @ Alakazite
Ability: Magic Guard
EVs: 4 Def / 252 SpA / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
- Psychic
- Focus Blast
- Shadow Ball
- Encore

Mega Alakazam comes in on any non-attacking move and locks Manaphy into it with Encore, allowing for an easy 2HKO with Psychic (or 3HKO if it's Calm Mind). Alakazam can also survive 2 Scalds if needed.

0 SpA Manaphy Scald vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Mega Alakazam: 91-108 (36.2 - 43%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Mega Alakazam Psychic vs. 240 HP / 0 SpD Manaphy: 184-217 (45.8 - 54.1%) -- 96.1% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
 
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242.gif

Blissey @ Leftovers
Ability: Natural Cure
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Def / 4 SpD
Bold Nature
- Calm Mind
- Soft-Boiled
- Thunderbolt
- Shadow Ball/some other move

The Other Blob as a counter; even burns aren't the worst thing in the world because of Leftovers. It can set up right alongside Manaphy, and has the advantage of reliable recovery in addition to its Lefties. In a game situation Bliss probably isn't doing much beyond forcing it out, but if you do have a last-mon situation or some such:
+6 0 SpA Blissey Thunderbolt vs. +6 252 HP / 0 SpD Manaphy: 102-122 (25.2 - 30.1%)
+6 0 SpA Manaphy Scald vs. +6 252 HP / 4 SpD Blissey in Rain: 100-118 (14 - 16.5%)
 
Counter
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Shaymin @ Life Orb
Ability: Natural Cure
EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
- Seed Flare
- Earth Power
- Hidden Power Fire / Healing Wish
- Rest

Shaymin is a Pokemon that isn't exactly common in the OU metagame, but it's a good choice nonetheless. Shaymin outspeeds defensive spreads, Seed Flare is able to OHKO Manaphy from full health, and, thanks to the possible Special Defense drops, there's no way Manaphy can boost its way past Shaymin. +1 Scald under the rain does upwards of 33%, but if everything is played right there's no way Manaphy can even get there. Shaymin can simply Rest, switch out, and rinse and repeat until Manaphy is defeated.

+1 0 SpA Manaphy Scald vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Shaymin in Rain: 97-114 (28.4 - 33.4%) -- 0.1% chance to 3HKO

252 SpA Life Orb Shaymin Seed Flare vs. 240 HP / 0 SpD Manaphy: 424-502 (105.7 - 125.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO

252 SpA Life Orb Shaymin Seed Flare vs. +1 240 HP / 0 SpD Manaphy: 283-338 (70.5 - 84.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
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Counter
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Cacturne @ Life Orb
EVs: 252 Atk / 252 Spe
Ability: Water Absorb
Jolly Nature
- Swords Dance
- Sucker Punch
- Seed Bomb
- Drain Punch

Cacturn can easily set up on Manaphy due to an immunity to Scald. After a swords dance, Seed Bomb easily OHKOs.

+2 252+ Atk Cacturne Seed Bomb vs. 248 HP / 240+ Def Manaphy: 384-452 (95.2 - 112.1%) -- 68.8% chance to OHKO
 
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Counter
latias-mega.gif

Latias (F) @ Latiasite
Ability: Levitate
EVs: 248 HP / 84 Def / 176 Spe
Bold Nature
- Calm Mind
- Roost
- Substitute
- Psyshock

Sets up very easily on Manaphy, and OHKOes it with +6 Psyshock. Gets worn down by Burns, but not nearly enough for Manaphy to ever hope breaking past it, and Substitute blocks that regardless

+6 0 SpA Manaphy Scald vs. +1 248 HP / 0 SpD Mega Latias in Rain: 120-142 (33 - 39.1%) -- 99.9% chance to 3HKO (just to give you an idea)
+3 0 SpA Mega Latias Psyshock vs. 252 HP / 240+ Def Manaphy: 210-247 (51.9 - 61.1%) -- 94.9% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
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