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NOC WikiMafia 2 Game Thread [Day 5]

>Take break from the most tedious part of my job to check the thread
>Someone is voting DBD

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Will keep on des for now bc I feel equally good about both and I think that one is more likely to draw attention, but if this materializes I will happily switch
 
AirC said:
So we have basically a 50/50 (or higher) on Tommy/Bliz and a role cop that refuses to role cop, and DBD is your vote? Good thing you're conf town lmao
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AirC can you please engage with this post:
Blizihguh said:
I don't really want to refute this because there's a decent chance Tommy gets lynched today and flips scum, but like in the interest of logic (and eventual self preservation if Tommy is town) let me lay this out

0. Suppose Tommy and I are both town
1. Tommy and I get linked and scum know this is still true overnight
2. Scum kill Peum (no more threat of one of them getting love red)
3. Today scum push the Tommy Bliz 1v1 theory -- "one of them must be scum"
4. We lynch me or Tommy. Whoops, it's a town flip!
5. Tomorrow, we lynch the other one. Oh no, it's town again and now mafia win!

I think mafia could have made this plan so I'm not 100% that Tommy is scum
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Blizihguh said:
AirC can you please engage with this post:
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I mean I kinda agree with you but it's hard to prove you're right. We kinda need to consider that maf could also be afraid of potential protection if they exist as town. But unless more claims come forward it's hard to actually confirm what you said and especially since it's the biggest lead we got right now
 
I don't really understand what you're saying; we will never be able to confirm what mafia was thinking when they chose a specific night kill, that's an inherent part of the game and why night kill analysis often leads to these kinds of scenarios where we're forced to consider "did scum do this thing because it's optimal for them, or did they do it because it's suboptimal, so that they could later claim in thread that it must have been optimal?"
 
Blizihguh said:
I don't really understand what you're saying; we will never be able to confirm what mafia was thinking when they chose a specific night kill, that's an inherent part of the game and why night kill analysis often leads to these kinds of scenarios where we're forced to consider "did scum do this thing because it's optimal for them, or did they do it because it's suboptimal, so that they could later claim in thread that it must have been optimal?"
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I'd like to keep the convo going but I'm completely fried and it's 2am and I'm not thinking well enough, I'll reread that tomorrow
 
Blizihguh said:
I don't really understand what you're saying. We will never be able to confirm what mafia was thinking when they chose a specific night kill, that's an inherent part of the game. This is why night kill analysis often leads to these kinds of scenarios where we're forced to consider, "did scum do this thing because it's optimal for them? Or did they do it because it's suboptimal, so that they could later claim in thread that it must have been optimal?"
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Quoted for grammar
 
i also dont think bliz v tommy is necessarily a 1 for 1 but i do think that the point made of no one in the neighborhood being killed is strong given that tommy treats it like a towncore and flandrs has been bobbing along with it as well. its strange to me that mafia wouldnt try to dismantle it. peum as an nk here makes sense so this goes for the nights where hydro and realiti were killed
 
im open to other ideas but weve been dancing around it for so long at what point do we just call a spade a spade. i still think tommys posting is towny and he was very upset by the hammer yesterday in a way that feels unnecessary to put on so idk. im going to feel stupid either way if im wrong
 
Blizihguh said:
I don't really want to refute this because there's a decent chance Tommy gets lynched today and flips scum, but like in the interest of logic (and eventual self preservation if Tommy is town) let me lay this out

0. Suppose Tommy and I are both town
1. Tommy and I get linked and scum know this is still true overnight
2. Scum kill Peum (no more threat of one of them getting love red)
3. Today scum push the Tommy Bliz 1v1 theory -- "one of them must be scum"
4. We lynch me or Tommy. Whoops, it's a town flip!
5. Tomorrow, we lynch the other one. Oh no, it's town again and now mafia win!

I think mafia could have made this plan so I'm not 100% that Tommy is scum
Click to expand...
man i was reading through half-sentient and then went "wait who brought up the crackpot double town lovers theory they're for sure town" but it's just someone in the lovers tie trying to self-pres damn
 
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